Category Archives: Pitching

2008 Season, Injuries, Pitching

Porcello and moving pictures

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The Tigers are going the split squad route today with a home game against the Reds (Dontrelle Willis) and a road tilt against the Indians (Yorman Bazardo). For those with MLB.tv they’ll be able to catch the road game which is set to feature Rick Porcello.

Also of note today, Todd Jones is slated to pitch in the Reds game. Jones of course hasn’t been good this spring and is trying to fix mechanical problems.

If you’re following either game feel free to post your thoughts.

Bullpen woes continue to abound as Fernando Rodney’s throwing session was pushed back two days. I learned that from an overly dire Freep headline: “More bullpen bad news – Zach Miner and Fernando Rodney both suffer setbacks.” Turns out Miner’s setback was that he allowed a homer.

Meanwhile former Tigers farmhand Randor Bierd, who was lost in the Rule 5 draft to the Orioles, has developed some kind of super mystery pitch.

2008 Season, Pitching, Spring Training

Let the Todd Jones hand wringing begin

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What do you get when you take an unsettled bullpen, a closer who kinda makes people nervous on a good day, and two craptacular spring outings? A recipe for Todd Jones hysteria.

Today Todd Jones turned in his second awful outing of the spring in what turned out to be a 9-7 Tigers win. Jones didn’t make it out of the 9th inning before surrendering 4 runs on 4 hits and a walk. Last week Jones was hammered for 6 runs in an inning of work.

Is there reason to be concerned? It’s hard to say sitting here in Michigan. Jason Beck noted after Jones’s first bad outing that it’s tough to gauge closers in the spring when they are coming into the 4th inning of games. Well today Jones came into the 9th inning of a game. I’m not sure the fact that he was facing minor leaguers makes the situation worse or better. On one hand he should dominate these kids. On the other hand that adrenaline rush that closers supposedly rely on probably wasn’t there either.

Beck blogged that Jones was working on locating his fastball today. He clearly wasn’t doing it well based on the results. But Beck also notes that Jones isn’t injured which is the most important thing. If there were reports coming out that Jones was velocity was down, or that he had no movement on his pitches I would definitely be more concerned. At this point though I’m willing to chalk his struggles up to “working on things.”

2008 Season, Injuries, Pitching, Trade Rumors

Bullpen woes spawn trade talk

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Jon Paul Morosi reports that the Tigers bullpen headaches have the team talking trade. Morosi notes that there have been “general discussions” with the Cubs. Chicago has become a favorite trading partner of Dombrowski with the two clubs completing five trades during DD’s tenure.

Morosi notes that the Cubs may be interested in a right handed hitter who could play center. Like maybe Inge. There is the Alan Trammell factor and a recommendation from the bench coach could come into play.

MLB Trade Rumors throws out the name Ryan Dempster as a potential target. Dempster will turn 31 and make $5.5 million this year, so for 2008 anyways the salaries would work out. Dempster fanned 7.43 per 9 innings last year while walking 4.05 per 9 and posting a 4.51 FIP. In other words he’s a poor man’s Jason Grilli (7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 3.85 FIP). Well, with some saves.

As for the current bullpen candidates, well, umm, yeah:

  • Matt Mantei’s arm went pop and he’s retiring and was released
  • Fernando Rodney threw for the first time today in a couple weeks. He made 15 throws from 60 feet. But that doesn’t provide a lot of hope at this point given his history.
  • Francisco Cruceta still hasn’t made it into the country.  At this point I wonder if the Tigers could get him through waivers.
  • And Todd Jones was rocked today for 6 runs in an inning.  But that’s probably less of a concern at this point.
  • At least Denny Bautista has looked good in his limited time with 3 scoreless innings.
  • I find it interesting that Yorman Bazardo has only thrown 1 inning. I thought he’d be a strong candidate to make the team given his option status.
2007 Season, Pitching, Research

Scouting Bonderman with pitch f/x

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Jim Leyland has come out on several occasions and said that Jeremy Bonderman is one of the keys to any success the Tigers might enjoy in 2008. Bonderman’s second half swoon, which I attribute largely to his elbow pain that he finally fessed up to, clouded what was starting out to be a phenomenal season. An ERA of 8.50 over his last 9 starts, combined with the arm troubles meant that Bonderman finished with the highest ERA and lowest innings total since his rookie season. Like with Dontrelle Willis, we’ll delve into the pitch f/x data and see what we can find out about the veteran 25 year old pitcher.
Continue reading Scouting Bonderman with pitch f/x →

2007 Season, Pitching, Research

Scouting Dontrelle Willis

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On Friday Lynn Henning wrote a detailed look at Dontrelle Willis with a heavy emphasis on scouting. I found the article fascinating from the stand point of getting a better understanding of Willis’s repertoire as well as the thought processes that went along with approving the deal for the lefty. He was after all coming off a pretty rough year. I also viewed it as a chance to dust off that pitch f/x database I’ve had sitting dormant and explore whether or not the reports meshed with what the system had reported.
Continue reading Scouting Dontrelle Willis →

2007 Season, Pitching, Players

The Dontrelle Files

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We know Dontrelle Willis has the big leg kick and the bigger smile, but let’s take a graphical and statistical look at the Tigers newest starter.

The pitch selection

Using Josh Kalk’s pitch f/x tool we can look at the mix of pitches that Willis throws and the success he has with each pitch in his repertoire.

Willis has 2 fastballs, one with more sink and vertical movement – presumably a 2 seamer – that he throws most frequently. He also appears to have a 4 seam fastball which he doesn’t throw as often. He has an 86 MPH change up and an 80 MPH slider that makes it tough for lefties.


Continue reading The Dontrelle Files →

Free Agents, Pitching, Players

Newsflash: Rivera is better than Jones

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Drew Sharp had a blurb in today’s Free Press in which he argued that “making a one-year commitment to Todd Jones for 2008 is still a better financial and competitive investment than giving Mariano Rivera three years at nearly $40 million.”

It isn’t that assertion that bothers me. One could make an argument that an affordable 1 year deal to provide some depth while your closer in waiting matures is more fiscally responsible than sinking big money into a position that can be filled for less. I’m not going to get into that discussion right now.

But as part of his reasoning Sharp asserted:

Rivera is a future Hall of Famer, but he’s 38 and living more off previous reputation than any current intimidation factor.

There isn’t much distinguishing him — right now — from Jones from a production standpoint.

This is just wrong. Sharp offers no proof of this preposterous assertion, he just leaves it to the reader to believe him. In case you don’t want to take Drew Sharp at face value, here are their 2007 stats, I’ll let you figure out which pitcher is which.

Stat	PitA	PitB
IP	71.1	61.1
H	68	64
HR	4	3
BB	12	23
SO	74	33
R	25	29
FIP	2.61	3.88

Jones probably gets too much grief for what he isn’t. But to assert they are the same player from “a production standpoint” is just, umm, pick your adjective.

Todd Jones Stats and Graphs – Detroit Tigers | FanGraphs
Mariano Rivera Stats and Graphs – New York Yankees | FanGraphs
DREW SHARP: Todd Jones a better signing than Mariano Rivera

2007 Season, Managing & Strategy, Pitching, Players

Leveraging Todd Jones

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WPA Leaders

Rank Name WPA
1 J.J. Putz 6.17
2 R. Betancourt 5.38
3 Takashi Saito 4.27
4 Heath Bell 4.12
5 Joakim Soria 3.85
6 J. Papelbon 3.72
7 Joe Nathan 3.63
8 F. Rodriguez 2.95
9 Hideki Okajima 2.93
10 Pat Neshek 2.83
11 Carlos Marmol 2.8
12 Brandon Lyon 2.8
13 J. Isringhausen 2.75
14 Manuel Corpas 2.71
15 Tony Pena 2.56
39 Todd Jones 1.57

WPA or win probability added tracks a teams chances of winning over the course of a game and the measure for an individual player is the difference in win probability when a player enters the game compared to when they leave. WPA of .5 represents 1 win. The complete list of WPA reliever leaders can be found at Fangraphs.

Last week Dave Dombrowski indicated that the club would like to have Todd Jones back, but under the condition that he may be moved out of the closer’s role at some point during the season. Right now the ball is in Todd Jones court as he evaluates his options, and tries for a gig closer to his Alabama home. But is a set up role better for Jones than as the 9th inning man?

Not your typical closer

Jones doesn’t possess one trait that is common among closers, an ability to strike hitters out. In 2007 Todd Jones was dead last, by a considerable margin, among closers (or people who finished at least 35 games). His 4.84 was considerably behind David Weathers 5.56. What’s more is that there were 12 closers who’s K-rate was more than double that of Jones.

Still, Jones manages success because of other things he doesn’t do. His renaissance as a closer came in 2005 with the Florida Marlins when he simply stopped walking people. He only issued 25 free passes between 2005 and 2006 in over 130 innings. However in 2007 he struggled with his control, relatively speaking and issued 23 walks in 61.1 innings, and that put him in the bottom half of closers.

So with a bad strike out rate, and a not so good walk rate, he must have had sterling defense behind him right? Not so much. His batting average on balls in play was .299 which ranked in the bottom 3rd, or the top 3rd depending on your point of view, but it’s the bad 3rd regardless.

Look at these numbers, how did Jones manage to have blown save numbers comparable to Francisco Rodriguez and Bobby Jenks? He had 2 things working for him. The first is that he keeps the ball in the park. He only allowed only allowed 3 homers this year, and a slugging percentage of .371 meant that it would take several hits for Jones to blow a save.
Continue reading Leveraging Todd Jones →

2007 Season, 2008 Season, Contracts, Free Agents, Pitching

Breaking down the Dombrowski pow-wow

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Dave Dombrowski held court today in what was deemed an informal availability session and broached a number of topics.  Jason Beck was first to the web with the bullet points.  Definitely click through to Beck’s reporting, but I’ll weigh in on the bullets as well.

Pudge Rodriguez

No decision yet on Pudge and Dombrowski indicated the team might use their full allotment of time (10 days after the World Series) to make a decision. I just documented my thoughts on the situation and believe Pudge needs to be back next year. Whether that means picking up the option, or buying him out and inking him to a 2 year deal that pays him $7-8 million per – I’d be okay with both.

Todd Jones

Beck says:

They’ve expressed their interest in bringing Todd Jones back for next year, but while he would come back as a closer to start the year, they wouldn’t commit to keeping him there as the season went on.

I like the plan, and don’t want to see Jones blocking Zumaya. At the same time, if Jones is back, and can’t hold down the closer role that probably isn’t a good sign. Also, Jones is looking to see if Atlanta would be interested so he could be closer to home. I’ll be taking a deeper dive look at Jones coming up soon.

The rotation

Three spots are set and allocated to Verlander/Bonderman/Robertson. One spot will go to a veteran – like Kenny Rogers if he chooses to come back or another acquisition if he doesn’t- and the other spot will go to a kid to be determined. While trading Robertson would bring back some value, it also leaves a hole in the rotation and going into the season counting on more than one of Jurrjens/Miller/Bazardo to hold down a roster spot for a full year is a risky proposition. The thought of the three of them holding down one spot and then being available for injuries/tired arms is pretty appealing. Plus a one year deal for Rogers means the whole veteran presence without commiting to someone who might block a youngster when they are ready.

Left Field

Will look to get a left handed bat for the outfield that could be a starter, or a platoon partner for Marcus Thames. The ability to get a starter will probably be directly impacted on the cost of a shortstop, and whether or not they need to fill Kenny’s spot with a longer term contract that would consume more resources.

Jurrjens and Sheffield

Jurrjens will be spending the offseason with Gary Sheffield and working with Sheff’s trainer so that Jurrjens gains strength. I can only wonder how this came about. Did the club initiate it? Did Jurrjens initiate it? Was it Sheffield’s idea? For some reason this just strikes me as a fascinating conversation and a very interesting dynamic. A veteran slugging outfielder near the end of his career teaming up with a 21 year old rookie pitcher from Curacao to build strength. Good times.

Beck’s Blog: No extension for Leyland … yet

2007 Season, Managing & Strategy, Pitching

Rotation set, Jurrjens stays and Bazardo starts

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The Tigers have set their rotation and Jason Beck has it:

This Fri-Sun at Minnesota: Robertson, Bazardo and Jurrjens
Next Mon-Wed at Cleveland: Rogers, Verlander and Robertson
Next Fri-Sun vs. KC: Jurrjens, Rogers, Verlander
Sept. 24-26 vs. Minnesota: Robertson, TBA, Jurrjens
Sept. 28-30 at Chicago: Rogers, Verlander, Robertson

Notable is that Jair Jurrjens stays in the rotation after feeling fine after last night’s start. Also, Yorman Bazardo who threw 3 innings in the first game yesterday will make his first start of the season. There’s still a TBA so his performance on Saturday will probably determine whether he gets a 2nd start.

There will be 4 more starts for Nate Robertson and Kenny Rogers. Justin Verlander will have 3 more after tonight.

Of course if the Tigers get eliminated Jim Leyland may decide to spot start some of the kids in the last couple series.

Beck’s Blog: Rotation now set

2007 Season, Injuries, Pitching

Bondo’s elbow is doing more than barking

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After Jeremy Bonderman’s last start we heard mixed reports of “pain”, “fine”, and “barking.” Now his elbow is toast and he looks to be done for the season:

He admitted afterward that he is feeling a “sharp pain” on the outside of his elbow, and Tigers manager Jim Leyland said Bonderman would “probably” be shut down indefinitely.

“I’m done for awhile,” Bonderman said. “I know that.”

Now Bonderman is off to get an MRI and find out the extent of the damage. In any case he should most definitely not pitch again this year and hopefully he won’t need ligament replacement surgery, aka Tommy John Surgery which would keep him off a mound for 9 months.

When the reports surfaced last week I had this to say:

If he’s fine then let him pitch, but a macho “we’re in a pennant race and the team needs him, rub some dirt on it” approach would be foolhardy. I don’t know all the details, and the Tigers have exercised considerable caution with their pitchers so I trust that if he’s pitching in his next start the team is confident that it won’t do further harm. But I don’t like the sound of it regardless.

It seems as if I put way too much faith in the organization to have properly checked him out before today’s start. (ed note: this isn’t a fair statement for me to make. the last thing the org wants to do is risk injuring any player and I’m far from qualified to judge what properly checking him out would be) I would have assumed the MRI would have already been done as a means to clear him to start.

An elbow injury would certainly explain many of Bonderman’s second half struggles and I wouldn’t be surprised if this dated back to his horrendous start in Anaheim in July. Bonderman had shown an improvement in his walk rate from 2004 on, and it had really dropped early this year. But since that July 29th start he walked 20 in 46.3 innings while only fanning 31 as hitters posted a 954 OPS against him. Prior to that start he had made 19 starts amassing 126.7 innings and only issued 26 walks while fanning 113. There is a clear and marked difference.

And if you look at the graph, you can see in 2005 he experienced a similar loss of control late in the season as he was shut down with elbow pain (and a line drive off his arm).

Jeremy Bonderman may not have been saying anything recognizing the dire injury straits the Tigers were already in. Maybe he shouldn’t have tried to be a hero, but on a team where many have questioned heart and dedication it is hard to fault him for trying. I’m just wondering where Chuck Hernandez was in all of this. You have a pitcher who has shown growth in his peripherals throughout his young career, and who was pitching very well early in the season. And he suddenly can’t find the strike zone and his pitches become very hittable for a protracted amount of time and yet he can’t be fixed.

Whether the problems were mechanical, technique, or as it turns out to be injury related, who was watching the shop? Shouldn’t the fact that things couldn’t be corrected have highlighted a bigger problem?

Yes I’m second guessing after the fact, and maybe I’m just pissed off with the way the season is going,. And Bonderman shares some culpability in not bringing the problem to anyone’s attention. And I have no idea what took place in all those bullpen sessions and how often the coaches were asking him if he was okay only to be rebuffed. But looking back now it appears to be a case of considerable negligence.

Bonderman: ‘I’m done for awhile’, MRI scheduled for tomorrow

2007 Season, Injuries, Pitching

Bonderman’s elbow isn’t right

3 Comments

Make of this what you will, but Jeremy Bonderman’s elbow is sore.

Bondo Says:

“I’m fine,” Bonderman said with some conviction, after he was told that some teammates suspected he is not. “Yes, I’m fine.”

Pudge Says:

“He said his elbow was bothering him a little,” catcher Pudge Rodriguez said. “He’s a tough guy. He doesn’t want to come out. He knows the situation we’re in. Everybody wants to do their job.”

Leyland Says:

On the pitching front, Leyland admitted that Jeremy Bonderman’s elbow has been tender, but he said it won’t keep him from making his next start.

A sore elbow would certainly explain some of the recent control issues, and if it just developed last night it would explain the flurry of 2-0 and 3-0 counts as he struggled to command his pitches. If he’s not fine I don’t want him pitching. First I don’t think he can be effective if he can’t find the strike zone nor if he can’t throw with his normal velocity. Plus if he favors it he runs the risk of other injury due to altered mechanics. A sore elbow turning into a sore shoulder is the last thing the Tigers need.

If he’s fine then let him pitch, but a macho “we’re in a pennant race and the team needs him, rub some dirt on it” approach would be foolhardy. I don’t know all the details, and the Tigers have exercised considerable caution with their pitchers so I trust that if he’s pitching in his next start the team is confident that it won’t do further harm. But I don’t like the sound of it regardless.