Rotation set, Jurrjens stays and Bazardo starts

by billfer on September 12, 2007 · 16 comments

in 2007 Season,Managing & Strategy,Pitching

The Tigers have set their rotation and Jason Beck has it:

This Fri-Sun at Minnesota: Robertson, Bazardo and Jurrjens
Next Mon-Wed at Cleveland: Rogers, Verlander and Robertson
Next Fri-Sun vs. KC: Jurrjens, Rogers, Verlander
Sept. 24-26 vs. Minnesota: Robertson, TBA, Jurrjens
Sept. 28-30 at Chicago: Rogers, Verlander, Robertson

Notable is that Jair Jurrjens stays in the rotation after feeling fine after last night’s start. Also, Yorman Bazardo who threw 3 innings in the first game yesterday will make his first start of the season. There’s still a TBA so his performance on Saturday will probably determine whether he gets a 2nd start.

There will be 4 more starts for Nate Robertson and Kenny Rogers. Justin Verlander will have 3 more after tonight.

Of course if the Tigers get eliminated Jim Leyland may decide to spot start some of the kids in the last couple series.

Beck’s Blog: Rotation now set

 
 

{ 16 comments }

Mike R September 12, 2007 at 8:58 pm

That’s about what one would expect.

PHT in HK September 12, 2007 at 9:47 pm

I guess whether or not Robertson can regain his form is the key going down the stretch.

Ryan S September 12, 2007 at 10:21 pm

Unless Cleveland shuffles their rotation, we miss Carmona and Byrd in the series next week. It looks like Laffey, Westbrook and CC. (I’m not basing this on anything other than looking at the schedule). If this is true, it’s a bit of an edge for us.

Mark in Chicago September 12, 2007 at 11:24 pm

Bazardo. Ugh.

David September 12, 2007 at 11:48 pm

Don’t I repeat DO NOT count us out.

If we can gain 1 more game on the Tribe before we play them…

Chris September 13, 2007 at 1:51 am

I’m really interested to see how Jair Jurrjens does in these up and coming starts. Maybe I’m being too optimistic, but I think this guy has a chance to be a significant addition to the regular rotation of next year’s team.

Adam September 13, 2007 at 3:40 am

Awesome. JV has a chance to get to 20 wins!

cib September 13, 2007 at 6:19 am

Chris I agree. Jurrjens just looks solid beyond his years. He doesn’t have that deer-in-the-headlights look. If they get a run off him he keeps pitching. The interviews show poise also. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to hope for very good things from him in the years to come. I think the management feels the same way. His name has often come up as trade bait but he’s still here.

Coach Jim September 13, 2007 at 1:35 pm

With Miller, Jurrjens, et al, the future looks bright, but don’t count on them all to be phenoms, it’s still only the FUTURE we’re talking about. Let’s not get carried away and trade Nate for a player to be named later.

Mike R September 13, 2007 at 4:15 pm

Eh, I think Jurrjens, at his absolute peak, tops out as a No. 3 starter. Maybe a low end No. 3 starter and most likely becomes a solid no. 4. I think he’d put up similar numbers to present day Nate Robertson. I’d like to shop Nate, Omar Infante, and a couple prospect arms to fill the holes we have.

Chris September 13, 2007 at 4:16 pm

Here is the best-case/realistic scenario we could have for next years rotation.

1) Verlander is Verlander.. He remains the ace of this staff.

2) Kenny Rogers (assuming he is signed) is healthy through most of the year and there is no big tail off in his effectivness due to age.

3) Bonderman can somehow develop the 3rd pitch and be as effective for all of ’08 as he was in pre-allstar ’07.

4) Jair Jurrjens can continue his impressive, mature emergence in MLB.

5) Nate Robertson gets a little more consistent. It would be nice to see his ERA bellow 5.00. For a #5 starter, I don’t expect too much more. Just be an innings eater without serving up too many losing games.

Wildcard:

6) Miller can develop into a starter who can usually get 6 innings per start without throwing 100 pitches. Even if he is a 500 winning pitcher with a ERA of 4.00, it would be very encouraging and helpfull to the team.

If all of those variables do pan out, without major injuries, then I think the next year’s rotation could turn out to be quite solid.

Mike R September 13, 2007 at 4:55 pm

Here’s what I would like to see happen:

We shop both Omar Infante and Nate Robertson. It’s clear Omar doesn’t have a place on Jim Leyland’s team and Ryan Raburn should fulfill his spot as utility back up and I’m more comfortable with Raburn in the OF then Infante.

Miller stays in Triple-A and faces 300+ batters to get himself squared away before we think about bringing him up. That would also allow for time to see if any other guy can be an effective 4/5 starter for us.

Bonderman’s struggles post-all star break I think were elbow injury related. And he was arguably, the best pitcher in the league not named Dan Haren in the first half of the year because his change up had become an average pitch.

Look for a LFer. I don’t think Timo Perez is an answer and hopefully this hot stretch doesn’t secure his place as being that guy for 2008. I’m not sold on Marcus Thames being a great starter as I think he’d get exposed over the course of 500 AB’s. Great HR rate, but I’m not sure it’d carry through a season’s worth of at-bats.

We can go with Jair Jurrjens in the rotation — he should be able to put up a mid to high 4 ERA and be good enough to not be a liability at the back end of the rotation. I think Zach Miner should get another shot to be at the back end of the rotation (this is assuming we can get something worth dealing Nate Robertson for) as — to get all stat geeky — Chad Durbin’s had a low BABIP of just .277 and his xFIP is 5.41, so he’s getting a bit lucky.

Mark in Chicago September 13, 2007 at 7:24 pm

Mike,

Good post, I agree with many of your insights. One comment, I share your thoughts on Marcus Thames, but I have been reluctant to say so, given all the Marcus supporters on this board. Not sure I want to endure their wrath. ;-)

In all honesty, he’s a perfect platoon candidate or 4th outfielder. He’s been pretty dreadful in August, posting a .660 OPS. He gets exposed over time, no question. Not sure who the LF should be, I would think we’d go the trade route since the free agent class is so thin. I’m OK shopping Omar, but I’m not sure what you’d get for him. He might have to be part of a package deal.

I am a little wary of dealing Nate though, unless you get a superior player in return (Renteria?). I don’t think Durbin or Miner are good solutions in the rotation, so who would you replace Nate with? It’s a thin free agent class for pitchers unless you want to take a flier on someone with an injury history (Clement, Colon, etc.) Miller needs more time at Erie, and you’ve already potentially got a rookie with Jurrjens as your #5. Plus with the injury history or age concerns of Bonderman and Rogers, you’ve got to have veteran guys in there to eat innings. If we do deal Nate, we’d have add a veteran guy like Livan Hernandez or Carlos Silva, and I’m not sure that’s an upgrade, especially given Nate should be in the $3.5 million range next year (he is arb. eligible).

I am comfortable with the following rotation to start 08:

Verlander
Rogers
Bonderman (I agree with your assesment)
Robertson
Jurrjens

They could feature Durbin and Tata/Vazquez as swing guys for long relief/spot starters, and Miner for the middle innings. When injury strikes, maybe you bring Miller (if he’s ready) up or pull a guy from your pen.

Mark in Chicago September 13, 2007 at 7:30 pm

I used mlbtraderumors.com to check potential f/a LFers, the best names are Shannon Stewart and Milton Bradley.

Bradley with his 797 career OPS would be a nice fit, even if he is a cancer in the clubhouse.

Kathy September 13, 2007 at 8:14 pm

Marcus is my Tiger but I know better than most that he hasn’t been up to snuff. He’s probably good for off the bench kind of stuff or traded to a team that’s rebuilding and needs a decent LF.

Mike R September 14, 2007 at 1:22 am

Mark, valid points all around. I think, though, this team needs an up grade in multiple positions (C, 1B, LF, 3B though that one won’t be filled, but it’d be nice) and Robertson I think would net more then guys in our system not named Miller, Porcello, or Maybin. Jair Jurrjens has probably raised his stock but his 3.15 ERA is deceiving. He’s got a 5.83 FIP, a 5.71 xFIP and has an astonishing .125 BABIP — a.k.a. he’s been extremely lucky.

I’m perfectly comfortable with Zach Miner holding down a rotation spot. His ERA was higher then his FIP’s and his BABIP’s don’t indicate a ton of luck for or against him — so we can seemingly deduce that he’s a mid-4′s ERA pitcher. Obviously I would like the walk rate to come down a touch but given that he’s done it in the AL Central, a mid-4 ERA is just fine at the back end of the rotation.

I’d just prefer to not have to use Tata at all. I’m not a believer in anything he’s selling and I think he’s a less talented Virgil Vasquez. Also, Tata’s low strike out rates aren’t good for someone who’ll be in the bullpen.

I think shopping Robertson, Infante (who is just 25, versatile, and has the ability to hit in the majors (not unreasonable to think he could post a .725-.740 ish OPS at one of the infield spots), and even Thames are the guys on the active 25 man roster that would net the biggest return. It’s hard to look towards our system because after Maybin, Miller, and Porcello there is a big drop off — especially in the upper parts of the minors which some teams (White Sox for instance) like to look at because they’re closer to making an impact for the big league team.

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