Category Archives: Pitching

Getting stingy?

The Tigers are in a stretch of games where runs are likely to be at a premium. Between the A’s, the Indians, and the White Sox, they are facing 3 of the stingiest teams in terms of allowing runs. At the same time they aren’t exactly powerful offenses either so the Tigers figure to be playing in a number of low scoring games.

The table below shows runs per game scored and allowed as well as the ranks for the Tigers next 3 opponents.

For a freakishly inconsistent offense like the Tigers, it’s hard to say what type of production they can muster. They’ve made mediocre pitchers look awesome. But looking at the offenses they’ll be facing, if they can manage to avoid the 0-1 run syndrome they can still be in position to win a number of these games.

Hopefully those manageable offenses help a pitching staff that has really been turning things around as well. The Tigers are still 12th in the league in runs allowed per game at 5.04 for the season. But in their last 19 games they have allowed a much more respectable 4.1 runs per game.

Willis being mixed into rotation

It’s been a couple weeks since Dontrelle Willis came off the disabled list. He’s made all of one appearance. That will change this week when he splits a start with splits a start with Armando Galarraga.

Willis will pitch the first 4 to 5 innings and Galarraga will pitch the rest. It’s an unorthodox move to be sure.

The fact of the matter is Willis can’t not pitch for the team. To consider Willis a sunk cost 6 innings into a 3 year deal is wildly premature so they have to find a way to work him in. At the same time he needs to work on his control issues and only so much can be accomplished in side sessions. This gives him a chance at an extended outing.

Initially this doesn’t appear to be a permanent move:

“Willis is not taking Galarraga’s place as we speak,” Leyland said. “I’m just trying to figure out a way to get him out there (and) how we need to use him if he eventually is going to move back into the rotation permanently.”

This does effectively reduce the bullpen by a pitcher (which can probably be done regardless). It also means that the Tigers are only carrying one lefty in the pen in the form of Bobby Seay.

Unintentional Consequences

As I watched intentional walks by Tigers pitchers lead to runs on both Sunday and Monday this week, it seemed to be an all to familiar story. It seemed that the Tigers strategy of intentional walks was failing with remarkable regularity. So I went back to each of the 19 IBB’s the Tigers issued (that’s what happens on west coast trips when I’m up late) to see how they fared.

The table below has all the gory details: Continue reading Unintentional Consequences

The Galarraga rotation debate

Let’s do an old Rob Neyer construct, Player A versus Player B:

Pitcher A:
Record: 3-1
GS: 6
IP: 40
ERA: 2.48
K/BB: 23/12
HR: 2
OPS against: .618

Pitcher B:
Record 3-1
GS: 6
IP: 35.1
ERA: 3.06
K/BB: 24/14
HR: 3
OPS against: .571

Pitcher B is Armando Galarraga in his first 6 starts this season. An impressive display for a team that needed some quality starting pitching. Pitcher A is Nate Robertson in his first 6 starts last season. Now why would I bring this up? Because even an average-ish starter can string 6 nice starts together. Galarraga has decent minor league numbers, but far from overpowering numbers and stuff. This was a player for whom the best offer the Rangers could get is a player the Tigers signed out of a try out camp – and he had an option left.

Dontrelle Willis has at most one more rehab start in the minors and it’s no coincidence that his rehab starts have coincided with Galarraga’s big league starts. Willis will replace Galarraga in the rotation and it is the right decision.

Yes, you can argue that Galarraga hasn’t done anything to warrant losing his spot and I can’t say you’re wrong. He also did little to get the spot in the first place other than have Willis slip. And with one start and 2 batters I think it’s a little early to say that Willis pitched himself out of the rotation. Yes I’d like to see more control and better results during his time with Toledo, but the Tigers need to see if Willis can be successful and right or wrong his contract dictates that he isn’t going to get Wally Pipp’d.

As for removing another Tigers starter from the rotation, it ain’t going to be Justin Verlander who if he doesn’t return to form would render this discussion moot. And Jeremy Bonderman has managed to post a decent ERA despite awful peripherals. Nate Robertson is the starter with the best walk rate and an acceptable strike out rate. Not to mention that 2 of the aforementioned 3 have new multi-year deals.

That leaves one starter who Galarraga could reasonably supplant and that is Kenny Rogers. Rogers has walked more than he’s fanned and has generally been hit hard as he’s struggled to find the corners. Rogers is also on a one year deal meaning the longer term ramifications are lessened – aside from that whole “he’s like another pitching coach” business. And the Tigers aren’t going to dump Rogers this soon in the season.

Galarraga has been a pleasant surprise, but he’s also been a little lucky. His .180 batting average on balls in play is hardly sustainable even with a good defense. So his ERA is going to climb. I’m appreciative of what he’s done and it sucks that he’ll lose his spot. But the Tigers won’t bail on Kenny Rogers this soon. And while Jim Leyland would like to send Galarraga to the bullpen I think it is a pretty short sighted move. If Rogers continues to struggle, or in the event a starter goes down with injury (anyone notice Nate grab his back after one of his swings?), it would be nice to have someone to entrust a handful of starts to.

Bonderman stays away

Jeremy Bonderman turned in another disappointing performance in his latest start against the Yankees. It seemed to follow a pattern than Bonderman has established and has led to the worst set of peripherals in his career. Let’s go batter by batter through the first inning to see what went wrong:

Bonderman against Damon:
Bonderman against Damon
Things started out well for Bonderman. He got a first pitch strike on a fastball in the lower outside quadrant. Damon fouled off two borderline pitches on the outside corner before fanning on a slider that bounced up.
Continue reading Bonderman stays away

Verlander arm angle follow-up

Prior to Justin Verlander’s last start we discussed his dip in velocity and a change in arm angle is he was looking to make. Verlander had some improved results in his Tuesday night start against the Rangers. Looking at his pitch f/x data he averaged 93.9mph with his fastball and peaked around 97mph. A definite improvement to be sure.

As for the arm angle, I added his Tuesday night release point data to the previous graph. Now there may be some calibration issues because the latest data was from Comerica Park and the other data was from Chicago. But there appears to be a marked difference, and maybe even an over adjustment.

Verlander and his arm angle

As has been widely documented at this point, Justin Verlander’s velocity is down significantly. Either it is a systematic change in measurement mechanisms, or it is a real dip. Given the remarkable disparity and the fact it doesn’t seem to be effecting other pitchers the same way, I’m inclined to believe it is real. The question is whether it is by design (slower pitches, more movement, more longevity is one theory), it is mechanical, or it is related to injury.

Verlander recently did a side session in which he was working on his arm slot saying that he had been throwing with a lower arm angle and was working on raising it. While we can’t necessarily look at his arm angle with pitch f/x data we can look at an approximation of his release point.
Continue reading Verlander and his arm angle

Junkballing: Injury updates and more

Being at the game last night, I’m way behind on the injury updates. But let’s get caught up…

Rodney

It’s not quite official, but it’s looking like Fernando Rodney might be toast – at least for this season. He is headed to Alabama for a consult with Dr. James Andrews. Given his injury prone past, and the pattern or not being able to stay healthy for two months at a time last year, and the inability to throw without pain right out of the gate this year, it’s all bad news.

Granderson

And some good news for Curtis Granderson who took
live batting practice today. He also ran the bases, which I’m less concerned about. I haven’t seen anything from the team about a return date, but I’m guessing it is next week.

Sheffield

Detroit Tigers Thoughts points to an analysis of Gary Sheffield’s shoulder. Reports of tearing scar tissue don’t sound good, but the results have been impressive the last 3 days. Was it what was needed, or is it a short term gain in exchange for longer term risk?

Robertson

This is brand spanking new, but he left tonight’s game with some lat pain on his throwing side. In the locker room Nate said the plan was for some anti-inflammatory medicine and he doesn’t expect to miss a start at this time.

Verlander

Okay, don’t freak out. He may not be injured at all. But Dave Cameron blogging for Fangraphs notes that
Verlander’s velocity is down significantly and his other stats are moving in the wrong direction as well. I think it’s too soon to call it an injury at this point but it is something to watch.

Leftovers

Bless You Boys delves into Craig Monroe’s quotes about being bitter. Like Ian I can appreciate Monroe’s view point. Yes if he’d played better this wouldn’t have happened and so on and so forth. And to his credit he didn’t slam the organization on the way out or after the fact.

Pitch f/x: Bonderman 4-3-08

From time to time this year (as time permits), I’ll delve in to MLB.com’s pitch f/x data to analyze a starters outing. Tonight we look at Jeremy Bonderman’s start against the Kansas City Royals on April 3rd.

Pitch Mix

This season MLB.com started classifying pitches. This seems pretty convenient, but from what I’ve seen so far the classifications don’t quite match. In the case of Jeremy Bonderman we know he throws both a 2 seam (sinker) and 4 seam fastball, a slider, and an occasional change. The data had Bonderman throwing a splitter, which looks to be a misclassification of his slider. Because of this, I did my own pitch classifications using K-means clustering and some judgment.

The table below shows his pitch mix and average velocity for the 87 pitches tracked by the system today.

	    n     mph
2seam       39   92.0 
4seam       25   92.6   
change       4   83.8  
slider      19   85.6   

Continue reading Pitch f/x: Bonderman 4-3-08

Junkballing: Payroll, Minors, and more

Good thing there’s no game today, because there is a lot to link to!

Tigers have second highest payroll

The Tigers official Opening Day payroll is $138.7 million which places Detroit in 2nd place – far behind the Yankees. My unofficial total of $134 million, which didn’t include some of the players making near the league minimum, isn’t too far off. Certainly within $2-3 million.

The Mets are not even a half mil behind the Tigers at $138.3 and the Red Sox are next at $133.4.

So yeah, there’s some pressure on the Tigers to win.

Minor League Rosters

The bevy of Tigers blogs covering the minors have been working on putting the rosters together. The Surge has the Whitecaps roster. Among the 2008 ‘Caps I’m most interested in are shortstop Audy Ciriaco and reliever Noah Krol.

LFT Blog has the Lakeland roster which I find quite interesting. The rotation features Rick Porcello along with Jonah Nickerson, Duane Below, and Luis Marte. The up the middle players feature top catching prospect James Skelton and the double play combo will be Scott Sizemore and Cale Iorg. Take 75 North points out that the team at the end of the season might not resemble this roster at all with a number of players who could be moved up if they produce.

The Seawolves roster features Wilkin Ramirez who was having a standout spring before injuring his shoulder. If his performance catches up with his tools he could become a top 10 prospect in the system (he already has been).

The Toledo roster is most interesting in the outfield. It’s Brent Clevlen’s make or break year, and we’ll see if Matt Joyce can build on his late season success at Toledo. Clete Thomas will likely join the team when Curtis Granderson returns to Detroit.

But overall, the system has been depleted. Baseball America’s organizational rankings place the Tigers 27th.

UPDATE: Right after hitting publish I see that Tigerblog announced that Tigers 2007 draft pick Andrew Hess will be blogging for Tigers Minors.

Interviews

Ian is determined to make a name for himself in Kansas City and interviews his second KC writer in a week. This time it is uber columnist and blogger Joe Posnanski.

Empty the Bench takes a turn interviewing Curtis Granderson.

Other stuff

I thought about labeling this last section garbage time, but didn’t want to offend anyone.

  • Tigers and Tim Byrdak are talking. The team is looking to sign him to a minor league deal. He’d join the recently acquired Aaron Fultz as lefties in the Mud Hens bullpen.
  • Wikio Rankings – DTW is 71!. This very site ranks 71st amongst sports blogs. It’s hard to believe how many quality, well regarded, sports blogs are out there. Being on the list is an honor.
  • Bad Bullpens. From the Copa notes that everyone is having pen problems.

Do Bonderman’s pitches fool umpires?

An article at the Wall Street Journal delved into Jeremy Bonderman’s first inning struggles. Former pitching coach Bob Cluck wondered whether or not Bonderman’s struggles are attributable to umpires needing an inning to adjust to the movement on Bonderman’s pitches.

The stats seem to support this theory. The last seven times Mr. Bonderman faced an ump for a second or third time in a season, he allowed first-inning runs only once. On opening day last season — when the first three batters he faced all scored — the umpire behind the plate was Rick Reed, who hadn’t seen him in nearly a year.

Looking on a results basis probably isn’t the best way to determine this. But being able to check Bonderman’s called strike/ball rates in the first inning versus other innings, as well as factoring the first time an umpire sees him versus the second time, may be worth some effort. And then even expanding it beyond Bonderman to look for other pitchers who have similar movement on their pitches and if they have similar issues. The latter could be done with pitch f/x data and the former with retrosheet data. I’ll focus on the retrosheet piece for now.

Big View

The first thing I did was to look at Bonderman’s first inning ball and called strike rates compared to all other innings. I looked at all Bonderman data going back to 2003.
bondo1.JPG
The differences are pretty minimal, especially the ratio of balls to called strikes. In fact the ratio indicates that Bonderman gets more calls earlier in the game – if at all.

First Timers

Next, I took at all the times that an umpire was behind the plate for the first time against Bonderman. If the theory holds true, there should be a bigger disparity.

bondo2.jpg
We can see that a higher percentage of balls are called. We also see fewer called strikes in relation to the number of balls.

Return visits

Finally, a look at those who have called Bonderman games before.
bondo3.JPG
A somewhat interesting dynamic with this group. The ratio is more favorable in the first inning, but a higher a percentage of balls are called as well.

On another note, Brian Gorman is the umpire who has called the most of Bonderman’s starts with six. Larry Vanover has done 5 Bonderman games.

Taking familiarity one step further, I also pulled out the times when an umpire was seeing Bonderman multiple times in the same season. This isn’t a common phenomenon with it only happening 23 times in Bonderman’s 5 seasons. So it’s a situation that will present itself a handful of times a year.

bondo4.JPG
Things are certainly more favorable in the first inning for this situation. But that only seems to help in the first innings.

Conclusions

So is there anything to take from this data, does the specualtion hold up? I’d say that it is possible there is an effect for umpires seeing Bonderman for the first time ever. The rate of called balls, and overall rate of calling balls is highest for first timers in the first inning against Bonderman. The fact that the numbers in subsequent innings of that first start are in line with overall numbers does seem to indicate that the umpires do make an adjustment.

But otherwise the numbers are largely inconclusive. Given the in game variation for those seeing Bonderman repeatedly in a season seems to indicate that Bonderman has much more influence over these numbers than the umpires do – which really isn’t a shocker at all.

With pitch f/x data one could look for the frequency that pitches are called correctly by inning. But with only a partial season of data there isn’t enough to work with for the time being.

Good news for Tigers pen?

Given the rash of bad news with injuries, shellackings, and visa problems hitting the Tigers bullpen, today was a nice change.

  • Denny Bautista continued to pitch well. He went 2 scoreless innings with 4 K’s and is going to be hard to leave behind when the team heads North.
  • Jordan Tata, who wasn’t a strong candidate for the pen but would be counted on for depth, received news that he should be able to start throwing again in 3 weeks.
  • Yorman Bazardo and Jason Grilli also turned in strong performances today. Granted it was one day, but it’s better than a kick in the teeth.
  • Clay Rapada, another long shot arm for the pen but also a depth guy, threw a bullpen session. It was the first time on a mound since the 2nd week of camp.

The less good news had to do with Todd Jones. While no one seems worried, a lack of arm strength is pretty troubling. It sounds like he’s confident he can build up the strength, but what if he can’t?

I’ll leave you with a happy thought though. Rick Porcello looked very good, save for one breaking ball that floated over everyone’s heads. He got into the proverbial kitchen of a few guys in his 2 innings of work and nothing was hit hard against him. It’s the first time I’ve seen him on the mound save for still shots, and he doesn’t look like a guy fresh out of high school.