All posts by Kevin in Dallas

Game 2015.61: Indians at Tigers

Winning 3 of 4 ain’t bad, unless you consider that we’d have to do that over 16 games, just to get back to 8 over.

A bunch of roster moves today, or coming soon.

First of all, Shane Greene has been optioned to Toledo. Greene has been getting drilled over the past two months and some time down on the farm could be useful. Jason Beck reminds us that the Tigers sent down Scherzer in 2010 for two starts, so expect Greene to be a leading Cy Young candidate for some other team in 2020.

Ian Krol back up. Meh.

More excitingly, Justin Verlander is slated to start tomorrow, which most likely means that Angel Nesbitt will be sitting around the campfire next to Shane Greene telling all the kids about the good ‘ole days soon.

Tonight’s Lineup with career #s off of Salazar:

  1. Rajai Davis, DH (2-for-7, walk, K)
  2. Ian Kinsler, 2B (5-for-12, HR, 2 walks, K)
  3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B (6-for-17, double, HR, 8 K’s)
  4. Yoenis Cespedes, LF (0-for-3, K)
  5. Tyler Collins, RF
  6. Nick Castellanos, 3B (4-for-11, 2 doubles, HR, 3 K’s)
  7. James McCann, C (0-for-1)
  8. Jose Iglesias, SS (1-for-7, walk, K)
  9. Anthony Gose, CF (1-for-4, walk, 3 K’s)

 

Game 2015.58: Tigers at White Sox

One win shouldn’t “shake the proverbial monkey on the Tigers’ back”, but that seemed to be a recurring theme in the post-game. I’ve only picked up what I’ve read, but I am not reassured or inspired in the least.

I mean, this team just lost 8 games in a row. EIGHT. Let’s not act like all is well in the world. If they lose today they’ll have lost 9/10 going into an off-day. But win today…and we have a winning streak heading into a home series.

Jerry Green, of the Detroit News, wrote an article defending Brad Ausmus this morning, instead seemingly shifting the blame for the team’s woes to Victor Martinez, and the Tigers’ decision to pick VMart over Scherzer. Green is conveniently forgetting that the Tigers offered Scherzer an outrageous sum last March which would have likely prevented them from re-signing VMart. He also neglects to mention that Scherzer’s contract is for $142M dollars MORE than VMart’s. This is just the beginning. He then goes on to shift whatever blame is left to injuries for VMart, JV, and Avila. I honestly have no idea what he’s watching, or which editor thought it would be a good idea to give him a forum. He could not be more wrong in his analysis or conclusions. He does, however, get roasted in the comments, where most of the people posting agree with my notion that other than Tony Gage, every tier 1 beat writer is scared of the Tigers’ front office.

If you haven’t been watching the rest of the AL b/c this Tigers’ train wreck is so encompassing, the Royals have lost 9/11, and are averaging less than 3 runs per game over their last 18. And your second WC team is the Texas Rangers. One month ago I read/heard some local guys whom I really respect beg the organization to trade Choo, Beltre, and Fielder, with the understanding that a bag of chips would be good return for Choo.

What a difference a month can make.

Game 2015.57: Tigers at White Sox

I was thrilled last night when Ausmus came out to get Joba “8th Inning” Chamberlain to go situational for the next batter, and then Soria for a 4 pitch out. If you’re gonna lose, it’s okay to lose that way. Ausmus was managing.

Soria subsequently gave up a 2 out HR, and then a combo of Cabrera poor fielding (which doesn’t happen very often) and Alex Wilson poor pitching (which hasn’t happened very often) did the Tigers in. I did not see the Cabrera miscue, but it seems to me like there was a lapse in concentration.

Another sucker punch (that’s what it is at this point in time), and another loss as the season continues to slip away.

There’s been a lot of talk about the Tigers getting healthy soon, and what sort of impact that will have on things. Let’s make sure we all understand who or what is coming back.

Justin Verlander – arguably the worst full season starter in the AL last year. He’s not gonna replace Sanchez in the rotation. Lobstein/Ryan, whom he will replace, have been pretty serviceable. I think we are all praying that he returns to close to dominant #1 JV, but it is far from a given that anything close to that will happen.

Victor Martinez – who I do expect to be better than the worst DH in the AL when he gets back; but can he be MVP caliber VMart again?

Alex Avila – who would be a downgrade over the production we’re currently getting at C.

Point is, the Tigers should be winning, regularly, with the team they have on the field right now. I don’t expect these three guys to make a huge impact. Which leads me to a question for you, if Ausmus were to lose 20 in a row, he’d be fired, right? So what about 15? I think so.

What about 14? 13?…10? There’s got to be a maximum tolerance. I’m kind of curious to find out.

 

 

Game 2015.56: Tigers at White Sox

(The A’s earned that pic above)

As I mentioned the other day, I’m usually pretty calm when it comes to the ups and downs of a baseball season. Every team goes through streaks, and you’re usually not as good as a 11-2 start, nor as bad as an 0-7 run.

But I’m ready to push the panic button. This team is so uninspired that I’m starting to think that Ausmus is about as motivating as Bill Lumbergh.

Kurt Mensching of Bless You Boys (I’ll openly admit that I’m insanely envious of their site and content, and wish we could create a DTW follower only forum over there) wrote a nice piece on the Tigers’ struggles yesterday morning. He straddles the “it’s a bad streak” / “the season is falling apart” line, but he does bring up the trade deadline. I feel that he reached into my brain and pulled that out a few days ago, as I was contemplating content for this post, but really, all of you have probably been thinking about this. The reality is that with the contracts in place and age of this team, the Tigers could very quickly be the Phillies or Yankees, without any of that heavy hardware that’s so annoying to find a place for. The club owes well over an entire Astros payroll to 3 players, 2 of whom aren’t currently playing. (Cabrera + JV + VMart = $74M; Astros = $69M).

I’m gonna give you a minute to let that sink in, and then remind you that the Astros are 6 games ahead of the Tigers.

Tony Paul of the Detroit News accurately called the team the “bumbling Tigers” which is accurate given the suspect performances over the past week. I did not have the courage to look this up on my own, but if the Tigers don’t win a game this weekend, they’ll find themselves in last place in the AL Central. LAST PLACE!!??

Where are the water coolers smashing up against the wall? Where are the broken bats, the helmets being launched across the dugout, the cagey veteran run team only meetings? All I’m hearing is that the manager is embarrassed but the team will be prepared tomorrow. Embarrassed? How about furious? Outraged? Pissed off? Ausmus is treating this losing streak like I treat my three year old’s reluctance to eat anything but chicken nuggets; just wait it out and hope that it fixes itself. I mean, these are big leaguers, right? They’ll snap out of it…eventually, right?

The answer is absolutely not, you have to get into their mind and motivate them, teach them, and lead them. A manager’s job is not to fill out a line-up card, much as Jim Leyland would lead us to believe, but to manage a room full of men. Any of you out there who run a business know that you constantly turn the dials and tweak the settings until the machine is running at optimal performance for the current environment and set of parameters; and you redo that every damn day. Ausmus seems to be under the notion that the car doesn’t need tuning until it collapses.

Quite the contrary, he needs to be talking to each guy every day. And figuring out how to make sure that on that day, during that game, that player will be the best player he can be. I think he treats every player with the exact same hands-off approach, which is an awful way to manage. Not the hand-off approach, but treating every player the same way. I cringe every time he uses playful nicknames for every player – “well, Sanchy’s gonna get better” and “Kins-dog knows how to make that play” then “Greenie-bo will make that throw next time.” Man, stop worrying about whether you can be these guys’ bro and be someone whom they respect and look up to.

Kinsler is a great example. Right now Kinsler is showing us why the Rangers were so anxious to let him go (right down to the lapses in concentration, see my post from March 2014 for reference). Once Kinsler gets into a funk he stays there until the law of averages charitably pulls him out of it (which lines up perfectly with Aumus’ strategy). Or, perhaps, until you sit him. Or talk to him. Moving him down in the lineup was a great start, albeit 10 games late. If Kinsler could get himself out of this, he’d be managing the team himself.

This season is at a tipping point. Right freaking now. Even the Freep is calling it. And you know what the crazy thing is, the Tigers are only 6 games way from the best record int he AL. The talent on this team is so strong, and the AL is so weak, that the Tigers are only 1 game out of the playoffs right now, despite playing their worst baseball in 4 years.

Finally, one last point. And I realize that this will sound hypocritical, so know that I at least recognize that. But let me make my point.

Baseball is a long, long season. There is plenty of time for this team to turn it around. They may even be able to do it under Ausmus. But the whole organization has got to recognize that it is time to panic and make decisions and play with a new level of urgency; because this team is not good enough to pull itself out of this tailspin. No more, it will get better, or this is baseball…it happens. It needs to be, we will make it better right f’n now – starting with this pitch, and then this play in the field, and then this at bat. They can no longer afford to take a single pitch, or play, or at-bat off. Assuming I’m right about Ausmus and he is trying to hard to be everyone’s friend and not heard enough to be their boss, I have no idea how he changes that. But he had better figure it out. That is your job, Brad.

I think the Tigers are playing the White Sox this weekend, most likely a three game set.

Game 2015.52: Tigers at Angels

Well, in other news, Verlander pitched today for Toledo. 6 H and 3 ER in 2 2/3. Let’s just assume he was throwing all straight balls as he hopped back on the bike for the first time in a while.

Anyone have any good baseball news they want to post.

1. Anthony Gose, CF

2. Ian Kinsler, 2B

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

4. Yoenis Cespedes, LF

5. J.D. Martinez, RF

6. Tyler Collins, DH

7. James McCann, C

8. Jose Iglesias, SS

9. Andrew Romine, 3B

Game 2015.49: Tigers at Angels

The Tigers exploded for 3 runs yesterday, which was enough to hold off the A’s for a 3-2 victory and series win. 4 runs in 3 games isn’t the way I would have called it, but a series win is a series win. This doesn’t do much, however, to dampen the loud concerns regarding this offense.

I know I mentioned last week that the dearth of run production emanates from the 4 hole, but the Tigers have now slipped to 8th in the AL in runs scored. Not a good place to be considering Sanchez’s struggles and the inexperience of the back end of our rotation.

Speaking of rotation, I thought it might be fun to check in on a few old Tigers pitchers. Let’s see what they are up to!

Max Scherzer is enjoying his time in the NL, and is likely the front runner for NL Cy Young 1/3 of the way into the season. Scherzer is currently cruising along with a 6-3 record, 1.51 ERA (yeah, that’s right), absurd .879 WHIP, and even more absurd 10.7 K/9. Washington paid handsomely for Scherzer, but I think they are okay with it right now.

Scherzer’s rotation mate, Doug Fister, has gotten off to a rough start this year after a 16-6/2.41 ERA 2014 that saw him finish 8th in Cy Young balloting (how good are NL pitchers/bad are NL hitters?). Fister is posting a 4.31 ERA (4.68 FIP) and 1.412 WHIP through 7 starts. Those numbers would be career worsts for him, so I expect him to rebound. The 3 guys we got in return for Fister? Ian Krol, who has become a marginal reliever, Steve Lombardozzi, who never played for the Tigers, and Robbie Ray, who was flipped for Shane Greene. Greene has been a pleasant surprise and costs 1/23 what Fister does, so overall not bad.

Drew Smyly got off to another promising start after a brilliant back half of the season with Tampa Bay last year (remember he was flipped there when we sent AJax to Sea to get Price at the trade deadline), but unfortunately has been shelved for the season with a shoulder injury. The kid had a 2.70 ERA and .78 WHIP through 3 starts this season before he was injured. He’s got a bright future in front of him.

I don’t know that I’d change anything that we’ve done so far, I mean, there was just no way we could keep Max with the Cabrera/Price/Verlander salaries on the books. But it’s always interesting to see how everyone is doing.

On to LAA.

Buck Farmer gets the spot start tonight for Kyle Lobstein. Farmer started two games last year, appeared in two others, and generally got drilled (though he did K 11 in 9.1 IP) so tonight could be a little bit of a ride. He’s been great this year at Toledo – 5-1, 2.98 ERA, .215 average allowed, 1.17 WHIP, and a 9 k/9 ratio. So let’s all keep hope alive.

Little different lineup tonight.

1. Davis, CF
2. Kinsler, 2B
3. Cabrera, 1B
4. Cespedes, LF
5. Martinez, RF
6. Castellanos, 3B
7. McCann, C
8. Iglesias, SS
9. Gose, CF

 

Game 2015.45: Astros at Tigers

This 2 runs or less thing is getting really old, really fast.

Losing today and splitting the series would feel like losing the series to me. Sanchez has more bad starts than quality starts this year.

Lobstein to the DL with “sore shoulder” (wth?); Iglesias is day-to-day.

1. Gose, CF
2. Kinsler, 2B
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Martinez JD, DH
5. Cespedes, LF
6. Castellanos, 3B
7. Davis, RF
8. Holaday, C
9. Romine, SS

Game 2015.44: Astros at Tigers

Good win last night. Check that, great win. The Tigers got another outstanding start from Simon – 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K, 0 ER, JD Martinez hit a 3 run bomb (how many of those have there been this year?, and the bullpen went 6 up and 6 down. JD Martinez is now hitting .405 over his last 10 games with 15 hits, 2 HR and 5 RBI. Whatever funk he was in, he’s out.

So the Tigers are now in a great position to win a long series against the hottest team in the AL. Still got two games to go, but feels good for now.

Lobstein draws a rookie call-up, Lance McCullers today. McCullers made his big league debut on Monday striking in 4 2/3 while allowing 1 ER. Traditionally, the Tigers haven’t seemed to fare well against rookie call-up guy, and Lobstein has been struggling, so today could be tough.

I saw some chatter on here regarding the Tigers hitting in key situations. I want to make sure that we’re all on the same page here. The Tigers are one of the best offensive teams in the Majors. They have the Majors’ 2nd best OPS (.774) and 2nd best avg (.280). With RISP – the team OPS goes up to .812, 7th in the Majors. In R3L20 situations their OPS jumps to .873, which is only 12th in the Majors, but I’ll take .873 all day long. Look, baseball hitters are going to fail the VAST majority of the time. Even if we’re adding OBP + productive outs, there will still be very few guys who get the job done more than 1/2 the time. 95%+ of hitters are going to fail more than half of the time. This is simply the game. We can’t get worked up of we fail to score in every scoring situation. The boys are doing just fine.

Now what is curious is that the Tigers have the best OBP in the Majors (.346), the 2nd best OPS (see above), the third most ABs in the Majors, yet are 5th in runs. This doesn’t match-up with their overall team hitting prowess. The Tigers’ 190 runs scored this season is 36 behind the league leading Toronto Blue Jays. I would guess that if the Tigers had scored just 10 more runs they would have three more wins. (Now, this flies in the face of their Pythagorean X W-L which would suggest that they have been lucky, but I think it’s a sample size issue as I noted a few days ago). So why aren’t they driving in more runs? They really should be considering they are getting on base so frequently and hitting so well.

I think there is one direct cause – Victor Martinez, ,more specifically, where he bats in the lineup.  Here is the Tigers offensive rank by lineup position (using OPS)

1. 4
2. 7
3. 1
4. 27
5. 9
6. 6
7. 17
8. 13
9. 19

So, which one of the above is not like the others?

And of course, the 4th spot is maybe the worst to be so bad because of all the run scoring opportunities. The Tigers still have middle of the pack run production from the 4 hole (23 RBI – 15th in the Majors), but that just demonstrates how many opportunities there have been.

The indirect cause is Brad Ausmus – and his insistence on sticking with VMart for so long, but a young manager against an established vet, I get it. VMart is a professional hitter and he’s going to come back and hit. But his bat, or lack thereof, has cost this team several runs in 2015, and likely a few wins.

In other news…is anyone noticing what Prince Fielder is doing right now? Good for him.

Baseball Reference Game Preview here.

1. Anthony Gose, CF
2. Ian Kinsler, 2B
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. J.D. Martinez, RF
5. Yoenis Cespedes, LF
6. Nick Castellanos, 3B
7. Tyler Collins, DH
8. James McCann, C
9. Jose Iglesias, SS

 

Game 2015.42: Astros at Tigers

Nick Castellanos had his biggest hit of the season last night, a slicing line drive with the bases juiced in the 8th inning. Castellanos was credited with a triple and showed a ton of emotion standing on third, rightfully so. It was a huge moment for a team that sorely needed a big hit. (Let’s be clear, the RF took an awful angle, but it would have driven in at least 2 in any event).

So the Tigers avoid being swept, at home, by Milwaukee, and are rewarded with a 1:08 PM eastern start against the 13 games over .500 Houston Astros. Yes, 13. The Tigers are 7 over, which means they are 17-17 in their last 34 games. For all the great hitting and solid bullpen work, this team is not winning as many games as you would expect. Or is it…the expected win loss for this team is 22-19, which would suggest that the Tigers have been very lucky to date. Though that could easily even out over the course of the season. I’ll say it again, I think they are being mismanaged, and Ausmus has probably cost the team a game or two.

1. Gose, CF
2. Kinsler, 2B
3. Cabrera, 1B
4. Martinez J.D., DH
5. Cespedes, LF
6. Castellanos, 3B
7. Davis, RF
8. McCann, C
9. Romine, SS