Game 2012.6: Rays at Tigers

Well, it was fun while it lasted, but the perfect season is ruined. Now back to our regularly scheduled baseball season.

Not that there weren’t any positives to be found yesterday.  Justin Verlander pitched 8 innings of the best baseball seen in these parts for a while.  He also, and I quote Elias, was the 1st pitcher to do THIS in 23 years:

  • -Enter the 9th inning with his team leading
  • -Start and pitch at least 8 full innings
  • -Allow 0 runs and either no hits or one hit through those 8 innings
  • -Get the loss in the game.

So there’s that.

In retrospect, Verlander was done when he threw the wild pitch to Pena that let in the 1st TB run.  Radar gun says:  100.  Remember that Verlander? The one who tried to blast his way out of every tough spot? Leaving him in for the 9th was the no-brainer move, but he clearly lost his focus.

So we got that first loss out of the way.  And we also got the first “hey wait, Inge would have gotten to that one” out of the way.

Today it will be up to Drew Smyly to try to put the happy face back on Tiger Fan.  In his tune-up start in Toledo, Smyly couldn’t make it out of the 2nd inning, giving up 3 runs on 50 pitches in 1 2/3 innings.  Which means he could very well dominate Tampa today in his MLB debut, because that’s how baseball works.

Not that Drew Smyly is even his real name.  But Todd Andrew Smiley is hoping to join Charles Brandon Inge and Jose Miguel Cabrera, and not become a Michael Clete Thomas.

At any rate, expect him to be on a short leash in his MLB debut, so we are likely to see some Balester-Below action as well.

Jeff Niemann takes the mound for the Rays, and he has been a solid bottom-of-the-rotation pitcher for Tampa Bay, going 38-23 in his 4-year career.  And if nothing else, at 6-9, 285 he probably doesn’t have to worry about anyone charging the mound.

***

Brandon Inge will finish his rehab assignment on Thursday and will be back with the Tigers on Friday. Which means…? Well, it’s not Clete.  He has already got the DFA to make room for Smyly.  Clete has good speed, a good glove, a great arm, and is a lefty, so the odds of him getting claimed by another team are decent. If he is not, then he will be assigned to Toledo. Inge, meanwhile,  didn’t get a hit yesterday in Toledo, but did get hit by a pitch, and no doubt swung the bat well, so he seems game-ready.

***

Today’s Player of the Pregame: Ryan Raburn.

The Tigers are still undefeated when Raburn starts.

Today’s  Happy-faced Lineup:

  1. Austin Jackson CF
  2. Brennan Boesch RF
  3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
  4. Prince Fielder 1B
  5. Delmon Young LF
  6. Alex Avila C
  7. Jhonny Peralta SS
  8. Andy Dirks DH
  9. Ryan Raburn 2B

Game 2102.5: Rays at Tigers

The Tigers are still hot, even in the snow.

Porcello said cold weather be damned, and pitched a gem, marred only by 3rd inning control problems.  Austin Jackson continued to excel, provided power and patience, raising his SLG to 1.000 and his OBP to .650 in the process.

Non-obvious play of the game: with no outs and runners on 1st and 2nd, Jim Leyland replaces Delmon Young with pinch-runner Clete Thomas.  With an early jump, Thomas beat out a tailor made DP ball off the bat of Ryan Raburn, which meant that Peralta’s fly brought home a run and kept the inning alive for Gerald Laird, instead of ending the inning.  The two insurance runs made life easy for the bullpen. Gold star for Smokey.

The Tigers will load up with lefties to take on James Shields today, and vie with Kirk Gibson’s Diamondbacks to see who the last undefeated team standing will be.  Current Tigers actually have fared quite well against the Rays ace, compiling team numbers of .329/.366/.588/.954, with Jhonny Peralta leading the pack at 8-16 with 4 home runs.

Mr. CyVP himself takes the mound for Detroit, and looks to continue his early season dominance. He has done well historically against the Rays lineup (poor Ben Zobrist with a 2-23, and 7 Ks), with the exception of the Cat-Saver Matt Joyce.  Joyce is 6-11 against Verlander, with a 1.183 slugging percentage.

***

Can you imagine the Tigers this season with Victor Martinez in the lineup? You may not have to imagine: it is possible he could return in August.

***

Today’s Player of the Pregame: Austin Jackson.

Ajax continues to lead MLB with a .650 OBP.  On the other hand, he has yet to find first base in 4 career ABs against Shields. Which trend will continue today?

Today’s Debut of the Donkey lineup:

  1. Austin Jackson CF
  2. Brennan Boesch RF
  3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
  4. Prince Fielder 1B
  5. Jhonny Peralta SS
  6. Alex Avila C
  7. Andy Dirks DH
  8. Ramon Santiago 2B
  9. Don Kelly LF

Game 2102.4: Rays at Tigers

With the first round of MLB series in the books, the two hottest teams in baseball meet in Detroit for a 3-game series.  The Tigers swept their opening series with the Red Sox and the Rays swept the Yankees, only the 2nd time the Yankees and Red Sox were simultaneously swept in their opening series. This will be the first time an opening series Soxsweeper meets an opening series Yanksweeper.

This series will also feature a matchup of the early edition two hottest hitters in baseball. Sorry Miguel, but that would be Evan Longoria and Austin Jackson. Longoria merely bashed the Yankee pitching for a 1.792 OPS, reaching base at a ridiculous .692 clip.  Jackson was almost as good, with a .625 OBP and 1.482 OPS.

One of the stories of spring training was Austin Jackson’s new swing, which was designed to cut down on strikeouts, but didn’t seem to be having a great effect.  But that was spring training, which doesn’t always predict future performance (see Raburn, Ryan).  Was kidding a bit about leaving Cabrera out of the hottest hitters discussion, but if Jackson can improve his OBP significantly from last season (a thin .317), it may end up being the story of the year in Detroit.

Rick Porcello takes the mound today to take his shot at Best Pitcher on the Team Not Named Verlander.  I won’t trot out the stats about how Porcello has fared with different game time temperatures again, since it’s cold and windy in Detroit, and…well, the Tigers score a lot of runs anyway.  The Rays counter with Matt Moore, who is younger than Porcello, and has never faced Detroit–in fact he has had a 9-inning pro career so far.  Look for a some heat (97) and a good curve.

And if it comes down to it, look for old crooked-hat himself to come in to close out the game:  ex-Tiger Fernando Rodney has replaced ex-Tiger Kyle Farnsworth as the TB closer.

***

Meanwhile Adam Wilk gets the surprise nod to take Doug Fister’s spot in  Saturday’s game against the White Sox. (Well, technically, Scherzer is moving up from Saturday to Friday to take Fister’s spot). And let the Inge watch begin: Inge is starting a rehab assignment in Toledo today, in the lineup as a…DH).

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Today’s Player of the Pregame:  Ryan Raburn

As DH, Raburn will be ineligible to be anyone’s defensive replacement.  Sunday Raburn played 2B like a DH, and LF like a DH. Today he gets to DH.

Today’s totally sick lineup (Santiago was scratched with bug, Leyland has it also):

  1. Austin Jackson CF
  2. Brennan Boesch RF
  3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
  4. Prince Fielder 1B
  5. Delmon Young LF
  6. Ryan Raburn DH
  7. Jhonny Peralta SS
  8. Gerald Laird C
  9. Danny Worth 2B

Game 2012.3: Red Sox at Tigers

2-0, 1st place, 1 game up over Chi and KC

We’re only two games into the season, and the Tigers have already played what could be their most complete game of the season. After Doug Fister left with a strained left side (it’s is costochondral muscle if you must know) min the 4th, the bullpen came in and shut-out the Red Sox over 5 1/3, allowing only 4 hits and a walk while striking out 8. Only one runner advanced to 2nd during that stretch – Ryan Sweeney in the 7th via defensive indifference.

And then there were a few HRs. All told the offense had 12 hits, 6 of them for extra bases, and had runners on base in every inning except for the 2nd.

The Tigers go for the series sweep today behind Max Scherzer. Mad Max only faced the Red Sox once last year, and the result was his worst outing of the season when he allowed 7 ER in 2 IP. Buchholz looks to plug the dam for the Red Sox.

1:05 PM ET start.

Dirks in Left, Raburn at 2B

Jackson, CF
Boesch, RF
Cabrera, 3B
Fielder, 1B
Young, DH
Avila, C
Peralta, SS
Dirks, LF
Raburn , 2B

Game 2012.2: Red Sox at Tigers

1-0, First Place, 1 game up on 4 others.

The Tigers get ready for game 2 after a thrilling opening day win on Thursday. Have I mentioned how much I despite the off day after opening day? Though a W makes it a bit easier.

There has been a lot of talk about the Valverde insertion in the 9th. Though I would have loved to see JV get a complete game on opening day, Valverde in the 9th was not a surprise for anyone who knows Leyland, and it was the right move. When you have the 2nd best closer in the AL, you look for every reason to get him into the game.

I do think there was some truth to Leyland’s statement after the game that he’s glad the streak (Valverde’s) is over. We have no idea what kind of pressure it created, and it has got to be a relief for at least a few key people inside the clubhouse.

A W today would be the Tigers’ first game 2 win since 2006.

I watched a lot of Josh Beckett last year. He can be very good but he only went 7+ in 11/30 starts last year. He doesn’t walk a lot, but he does run the pitch count up there searching for the K.

4:05 PM ET start.

 

Game 2012.1 Opening Day

For, lo, the winter is past,

The rain is over and gone;

The flowers appear on the earth;

The time of the singing of birds is come,

And the voice of the turtle is heard in our land.

1:05pm ET. Who is headed out to the park? Where will you be watching?

1. Jackson, CF
2. Boesch, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, LF
6. Raburn, DH
7. Peralta, SS
8. Avila, C
9. Santiago, 2B

2012 Predictions

49 out of 49 media members polled by ESPN picked the Tigers to win the Central, and 6 had the good sense to pick them to win the WS.  18 of them have the Angels winning the WS, and then 7 had each of the Rangers and Rays.

Curiously, only 1 person had the Tigers losing the WS.

8/8 SI writers have the Tigers winning the division, but no pennants here.

Yahoo!’s guys had a little more fun with their predictions (but all 3 picked the Tigers to win the Central).

So, what would have to go wrong which would prevent the Tigers from winning the division?

Will Brandon Inge Make the 25 Man Roster?

Should he and Will he are two different questions. Based on what I know of JL and his loyalty to veterans and unwillingness to change, I think Inge is a shoeo-in. Despite the fact that Dombrowski may be pushing the other way. But let’s see what we know:

Turner, Strieby and Berry (and 3 others) were sent down on Monday, so there goes my Quentin Berry for CF campaign.

Pitchers
Verlander
Scherzer
Fister
Porcello

Benoit
Balester
Dotel
Coke
Schlereth
Valverde

Bubble Pitchers
Below, Oliver and Smyly – It looks like there is room for only 1 out of these 3 on the opening day roster. I like Smyly – he’s had a great spring, despite yesterday’s setback. Though that didn’t phase his confidence. Below going tomorrow.

Villareal or Marte for the final pen spot.

C
Avila
Laird

IF
Fielder
Raburn
Peralta
Cabrera
Santiago

OF
Jackson
Young
Boesch
Kelly

Bubble Fielders
Inge or Worth
Dirks or Thomas (know that Thomas is out of options)

Like I wrote above, I think that Leyland is so loyal that he’ll stick with Inge, despite the arguments that Danny Worth is earning the job. And Worth is arguably playing for a starting job, not just a roster spot.

So let’s discuss.

Spring Training Box Scores

The Tigers’ 14-4 spring training record is one of the best in the majors, and one of the best in recent Tigers history. They haven’t lost back to back games all spring. Largely inconsequential, yes; but it’s better than 4-14.

Spring Training stats are generally poor performance predictors, but let’s see if a deeper look can reveal anything.

Ryan Raburn is pacing the Majors with 6 HR and has a 1.336 OPS. Raburn is hitting a HR every 6.5 ABs, and off of starting pitching too. Raburn has had good springs in the past, but never with this level of power (9/12 hits are for extra bases). Curiously, though, he only has 4 walks (one of them was an IBB). I’d prefer a little more patience.

Raburn’s 18 RBI are 2nd in the Majors, behind Delmon Young’s 19. DY has 10/19 XBH. I think the left field position is secure.

Offensively, Cabrera has been up to his old tricks, so let’s take a look at the defensive numbers. 1 error in 58 1/3 is good news, however it looks like he’s not getting to many balls (or to them quickly), as evidenced by his 1.23 RF and 1 DP. I know that we have limited data to work with, but all of the reports coming out of Lakeland have been pretty high on his D. I think that the jury is still out. Good news is that he should be ready for opening day.

After those those four, the hitters have been unremarkable, until you get to our old friend Brandon Inge. Inge has, offensively, been the worst hitter this spring, scraping out only 3 XBH in 43 PAs. His .502 OPS is less than 10 others’ SLG (of those who are playing regularly). The number questioning  how he makes this team year after year is increasing. Most of the Detroit press have conceded that he’ll be on the roster, but are starting to question the 2B job. Who knows, if the Tigers keep an extra OF (Patterson/Berry) then Worth may be the 2B guy.

Quentin Berry has played a pretty nifty CF, and it will be interesting to see if that translates into some time in the show this year. Let’s do a post on the just in/just out guys later this week.

It’s not the hitting that is winning all those games in Florida.

JV was featured in yet another TV spot, this time for MLB.com, where he predicted more complete games and hitting 107 (mph, I think). The more complete games is a fantastic goal for the season. Verlander has been very sharp this season striking out 20 in 20 2/3, but he has allowed 1+ first inning run in 2 out of his last 3 starts. Also, he’s getting significantly more ground outs this spring than usual…I’m not quite sure what to make of that. He’s going to throw 100 pitches on the 31st as his final warm-up for opening day.

Scherzer has been up and down in ST, but his last start out against a depleted Yankees line-up was pretty sick. Scherzer has struck out 21 in 20 IPs against only 5 walks, and he’s posting a 1.10 WHIP. He has hit 4 batters though. I don’t know if Scherzer is ready to be an ace, but this is his best ST by far.

But what about Fister as an ace? Fister’s first 2 STs were bad, to put it nicely. But this year he’s got a sub 1 WHIP (.90), 11Ks in 13 1/3, and a 5.5/1 K/BB ratio. He’s had 1 bad inning in 4 starts this spring.

The bullpen looks to be in mid-season form already. Everyone who should be on the 25 man looks great., other than David Pauley who only has 2 2/3 innings of work. I am particularly encouraged by Schlereth’s .100 BAA and 12ks in 9 IPs, though equally worried about his 5 BB.

I know that Inge talk is hot, I’ll put together a few notes on that later tonight so that we can keep a thread going through roster cuts.

DTW News and Notes 3-15-12

21 days away…

Jacob Turner has been shut down for a week with shoulder problems. I think “tendinitis” is code for “confidence reparation.”  I don’t think he’s gonna be the 5th starter to start the season.

Octavio Dotel is playing for this 13th team in 13 years, an ML record.  ESPN ran an amusing article on it a few days ago. Dotel comes across as an easy-going guy. I guess you have to be when you’ve played with 601 different teammates.  Did you know that his career K/9 is 10.9?

Ever wonder how those huge tiger statutes stay so clean?  Here they are getting refurbished.

Old Milt Wilcox has successfully moved on to his twilight career, and it may be better than his first one.

Thursday Links and an Open Spring Training Thread

– Your ML best 5-0 Tigers rolled to another win yesterday.  Andy Oliver pitched 3 shutout innings, walking 3 and striking out 3, and Miggy hit is first bomb of the spring to go along with a slick play coming in on a ball at third.  Will they ever lose?

– This is a little late for AJax to learn how to bunt, no?  Fangraphs rates the Tigers’ CFers as 20th best in the league, behind some unimpressive competition.

– And in today’s most interesting yet least surprising news, 47 year old Jose Canseco will not be playing in the Mexican Baseball League this year because of doping allegations.

 

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