Category Archives: Spring Training

Because the centerfielder has to leadoff

With spring training underway there has been a flood of news bubbling up from Lakeland (and of course there are those pesky Johnny Damon rumors). But one that caught my eye was Jim Leyland’s dismissal of Scott Sizemore as the number two hitter. Somewhat understandably I suppose he doesn’t want rookies batting in the top two spots . But why pencil in Austin Jackson as the leadoff hitter in the first place?

Jackson certainly has a number of tools and is deservedly ranked on many top 100 prospect lists. Plate discipline hasn’t been one of those strengths though. He has a respectable .356 OBP as a minor leaguer, but he also fanned 2.3 times for every walk he took.

Sizemore’s greatest asset is his bat. He has maintained a .383 OBP throughout his minor league career supported by a .305 batting average and drawing walks in 13% of his plate appearances. His K/BB ratio is 1.3.

I won’t pretend to know who will have the better season and who will adjust quicker to big league pitching.  But based on all the available data it would point to Sizemore having the better chance at putting up at least a league average on base percentage. The difference though in Jim Leyland’s mind is that Jackson plays center and accordingly he should hit leadoff so he can make things happen.

I couch this all in the fact that I don’t really believe lineups make that big of a difference, and Leyland’s quotes on pitcher and catcher reporting day probably mean even less. But it a suspicious thought process where Jackson has the leadoff spot to lose while Sizemore is pushed to the lower rungs of the lineup.

Photo Credit: Roger DeWitt (hueytaxi on Flickr)

Could Brandon Inge be poised for a breakout?

The often offensively challenged Brandon Inge started out the season homering in 3 straight games. While he has dropped off the 162 homer season pace he was on, there is some statistical evidence to suggest that Inge may be on his way to an improved offensive year.

John Dewan of ACTA Sports (the same group that publishes The Fielding Bible) has been looking at spring training performances and how they translate to the regular season. They have found that a very good spring may be an indication of things to come.

For the most part, we agree with the common perception that they don’t have value. A bad spring training means nothing. An average spring training tells us nothing. Nevertheless, we did find that when a player has an exceptional spring, it does suggest a better than a 60% chance they will take their game up a notch.

An exceptional spring is defined as posting a slugging percentage .200 better than career norms. There are 46 such players on this year’s list including one Brandon Inge who rode 5 grapefruit league homers to a .593 slugging percentage which is .202 better than his .392 mark. The surge has been attributed to a new stance and hand position at the plate.

Now as Dewan notes historically there is a 60% shot of improved performance, so it isn’t a guarantee. However those are still some noteworthy odds.

Analysis: Breaking down today’s roster decisions

Today’s roster decisions pretty much wrapped up nearly 2 months (and in some cases even more) of speculation. There is one spot yet to be decided. That will go to either Jeff Larish or Brent Clevlen, though the Tigers are reportedly in trade talks with the Pirates regarding Clevlen. (ironically, or at least coincidentally, such a trade would displace former Tiger Craig Monroe) But with 96% of the roster decided we shift our guessing from personnel to performance.
Continue reading Analysis: Breaking down today’s roster decisions

Porcello and Perry make the team

It appears the Rick Porcello and Ryan Perry will be breaking camp with the Tigers. Details are still thin beyond that. I’ll update as more information floats North. Also, Mike Hessman was placed on outright waivers and Ryan Raburn was optioned to Toledo. That leaves 29 players in camp including Scott Williamson, Brent Clevlen, Jeff Larish, Eddie Bonine, Juan Rincon, Zach Miner, and Nate Robertson battling for one spot in the rotation, a couple in the pen, and one on the bench.

UPDATE: Juan Rincon and Eddie Bonine are also in. Dane Sardhina and Scott Williamson were assigned to minor league camp.

UPDATE 2: Clay Rapada was optioned to Toledo and your second lefty in the pen is Nate Robertson. It’s down to Brent Clevlen and Jeff Larish for the last roster spot.

So…the pitching staff looks like this:

Rotation: Verlander/Jackson/Miner/Porcello/Galarraga (I’m guessing on the order to start the season)
Bullpen: Lyon/Rodney/Seay/Rincon/Perry/Bonine/Robertson

Zumaya, Willis to DL

The Tigers announced three more roster moves today. Not surprisingly Joel Zumaya will start the season on the DL as he tries to overcome his shoulder maladies. A little more surprising is that Dontrelle Willis will be joining him. The official reason is “anxiety disorder.”

Clearly the team thinks that Dontrelle’s problem is mental which presumably means they still believe in his pitching ability. He worked with a performance coach during his Lakeland sabbatical last season, but the problems seem to be recurring. The reports are glowing when he pitches in camp or minor league games, but the results aren’t appearing in regular exhibition events.

This seemingly means that Willis can stay on the DL indefinitely. The trick is that there are limits to rehab assignments. So while he can be on the DL to work through these issues, he has limited time to demonstrate a recovery.

This is a very sad story for Willis and I wish him the best.

The third and least notable move is Kyle Bloom was returned to the Pittsburgh Pirates. That leaves 35 players in camp.

Bonderman not quite ready

According to Jim Leyland it is “highly unlikely” that Bonderman will be available to start the season. While Bonderman isn’t feeling pain at this point, his arm strength (or lack thereof) has his fastball sitting in the high 80’s instead of the low to mid 90’s.

They are clearly playing things by ear at this point, but it does bolster Miner’s and Porcello’s chances of making a start. If it is Miner that gets the nod, that also means a bullpen position may be temporarily open.

Hopefully this situation resolves itself fairly quickly. I view Jeremy Bonderman as one of the keys to the season. If he can’t get back to normal, thoughts of an 85 win season become harder to envision.

Starting pitching not so ready

The news from Lakeland today is that Joel Zumaya and Jeremy Bonderman may not be ready by Opening Day. The Zumaya news isn’t at all surprising. The Bonderman news isn’t especially surprising, but a little concerning as he looks to regain velocity. But that’s not all…

There is of course the Nate Robertson thumb injury which thankfully doesn’t sound too serious. Still, it’s not a lock that he’ll make his next scheduled turn.

And option Rick Porcello hasn’t been quite as dazzling since the finger injury. He’s struggled somewhat with his control against the Yankees on Saturday. Tonight he walked 3 and allowed 3 hits in 2.1 innings against Tampa.

This spring has seen a lot of ups and downs from the various members of the rotation. Verlander was working on stuff and all over the place before finding his groove. Robertson was washed up and done before turning in back to back nice outings before the thumb injury. Porcello was the best pitcher in camp before his finger injury. Zach Miner was relegated to the bullpen before he seemed to figure things out. Who knows what will happen over the next week. Maybe Dontrelle Willis and his new leg kick will give us reason for hope.

Injuries for everyone

So the Tigers just get everybody back from the WBC, and then they lose Adam Everett and Nate Robertson in the first inning today.

Everett sprained an ankle sliding into second and Robertson took a throw from Danny Worth on his pitching hand resulting in a sprained thumb.

Neither injury sounds especially serious, but with a week left in camp with the whole team together, this is at minimum a nuisance. It also puts into jeopardy Robertson’s ability to start the season in the rotation, a position he was working himself into with his last couple outings.

On the other hand, Zach Miner who was almost assured of a spot in the pen, has now pitched two strong outings in a row and may find himself back in the hunt.

One guy who may have pitched himself off the roster today was Scott Williamson. Williamson allowed 5 runs in one inning of work today. He was probably on the wrong side of the bullpen bubble, and today certainly didn’t help his cause.

Is this the year Thames gets traded

The trade winds are blowing. On Sunday Peter Gammons mentioned Marcus Thames as a player the Tigers have made available. Now the Freep has two articles mentioning the fact that Thames is a trade candidate and that with 2 weeks left before the season, the phones are getting more active.

In the past when Thames name was floated, it was usually in an effort to acquire another big league player, like a relief pitcher. But with the pen seemingly in decent shape at the moment, this is more a matter of balancing a crowded outfield situation.

The starters are pretty well set (Guillen/Granderson/Ordonez) and the bench is tight and predominantly right handed. Working against Thames are his right handedness and the fact he can’t really back up in centerfield. Other right handers like Brent Clevlen (out of minor league options) and Ryan Raburn can play all 3 outfield positions. Thames spot could become Jeff Larish’s who could spell Cabrera and Inge on the infield and provide some left handed pop. Or it could become Clete Thomas’s who can also play all 3 outfield positions.

The downside to trading Thames is that you know what you get with Marcus. In the event of injury to a corner outfielder who you have veteran who will be able to provide some plus power. And if you look at left field an injury is really very likely. The other guys mentioned have much less of a track record and ceilings that aren’t remarkably high. It also would mean an end to the annual “Why isn’t Marcus Thames starting” debates.

Fien, Dolsi cut

A couple of bullpen candidates have been trimmed from the big league camp. Freddy Dolsi was optioned to Toledo and Casey Fien was assigned to minor league camp. Fu Te Ni was also assinged to minor league camp.

The Fien move is a little surprising because he has pitched so well this spring, but as a young player not on the 40 man roster the Tigers may choose give a veteran like Juan Rincon a shot first. Of course Perry is in the same boat, young player not on the 40 man roster, but he’s also a first round draft pick.  Still I think Fien’s assignment means Rincon in particular is in a good position.

With Venezuela eliminated from the WBC, I’d expect some of the surplus outfielders to be cut very soon as well. Wilkin Ramirez is likely in the next round of cuts. After that it gets interesting between Clete Thomas, Ryan Raburn, Brent Clevlen, and Jeff Larish.

Today’s 5th starter battle run down

Robertson pitches Friday in Lakeland
Robertson pitches Friday in Lakeland - cr Roger DeWitt

I really wish there were other stories in this year’s camp, but aside from the fact that 4 of the team’s 5 most prominent offensive forces are on the other side of the country, it comes down to the battle for the rotation.

Rick Porcello gets as big of a stage as you can during spring training pitching in Tampa against the Yankees. It’s his first start since March 9th as he’s been sidelined with a minor finger injury.

Nate Robertson pitched wonderfully yesterday throwing 4 scoreless innings and only allowing 2 hits while fanning 5. That comes on the heels of 3 scoreless innings his last time out.

Dontrelle Willis is going back to his old wind-up with the exaggerated leg kick. He demo’d it in his third inning of work on Thursday night and Rick Knapp is working with him to refine it. Why not, nothing else is working says Jim Leyland:

“We’re at the point where we’re trying pretty much anything. I think that’s pretty simple. And I think [Willis] feels comfortable with that.”