Yearly Archives: 2006

2006 Season, Game Post, Playoffs

World Series Game 1: Cardinals at Tigers

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PREGAME: In case you hadn’t heard, there are 2 rookies hooking up today. It will be Justin Verlander for Detroit and Anthony Reyes for the Cardinals.

First, we look at Reyes. This will be the first time the Tigers have seen Reyes, and anectdotally they seem to struggle with pitchers they face for the first time. In this case they’ve had plenty of time to prepare, but will it help?

Reyes is a predominantly fastball/change-up pitcher. He’s a flyball pitcher, with only 35% of balls in play on the ground. Because of this he’s prone to the long ball with 17 homers in 85 1/3 innings.


Righthanders hit for a lower average (249 vs 278), but post the same OBP(338) and a higher slugging percentage(525 vs 493) than their left hand counterparts. This would seem to be a favorable match-up for Marcus Thames, but Sean Casey looks to get the nod at DH.

Reyes is typically hit hardest early in the game (944 OPS in innings 1-3) so it will be important for the Tigers to shake off the rust of a week long layoff early.

On the other side will be Justin Verlander. I think I’m the only one who doesn’t think Verlander has pitched that well in the off season. He hasn’t been bad, but he also hasn’t made it out of the 6th inning in either game and it’s taken him 106 pitches to get that far each time. That said he’s been good enough as the Tigers posted wins in both his starts.

He’s been allowing baserunners, but he did that all season. Like he did all season, he’s done a good job stranding them with a 78% LOB rate because his OPS against with runners on drops to 684.

When he faced the Cardinals earlier this year, Yadier Molina had 2 doubles and Albert Pujols reached base twice. He had Scott Spezio tied up to the tune of 3 K’s.

Game Time 7:30pm

POSTGAME: Was it rust or was it Reyes? In any case the Tigers turned in their worst performance of the playoffs despite Justin Verlander seemingly having a solid command of his curve ball.

I’ll have a full aftermath post tomorrow morning, but some quick thoughts on tonights game first:

  • Reyes baffled the Tigers. Most of those non-groundballs were simply pop-ups or soft liners to Belliard. It’s not like the Tigers were hitting at-em balls. They just weren’t hitting the ball hard and the only “Oh man” moment was Pudge’s flyball to the warning track.
  • The patience the Tigers displayed in the past rounds was gone. Magglio Ordonez was the only Tiger to walk, and the only Tiger to reach a 3 ball count off of Reyes. Reyes deserves some of the credit, but the Tigers didn’t make him work and enabled the Cardinal bullpen a night off.
  • You can question the decision to pitch to Pujols and you can lament the error filled 6th inning, but the Tigers hitters inability to get anything off of Reyes was the difference in the game.
2006 Season, Playoffs, Previews

World Series Prediction Center

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The Tigers are better than the Cardinals. I don’t think this even requires that much debate. The Tigers won 12 more games than the Cardinals. That in itself is impressive, but they did it in a division with 2 other 90 game winners while the Cardinals 83 was enough to lead the NL Central.

In addition, the won-loss records weren’t flukes. Detroit outscored their opponents by 147 runs while the Cards margin was only +19.

It’s understandable that the Tigers are overwhelming favorites in this series. They have the talent advantage. They are rested. The Cardinals have one day off and are somewhat forced into a particular rotation. The Tigers have an additional week of data and scouting reports to work with.

Normally this is the point where I caution people on getting too over-confident by pointing to the example of the New York Yankees. Remember the Yankees, the consensus favorite for whom the Tigers would merely be something to shoo away enroute to bigger things? The Tigers handled the Yankees in 4 with ease. The difference in this series is that the gap between the Tigers and Yankees wasn’t as great as the gap betwen the Cardinals and Tigers.

Now the Tigers should win, but will they? I think they get it done on the field as well as on paper and I’ll take the Tigers in 6.

The round up

Tiger Bloggers

  • Detroit Tiger Tales has a comprehensive write-up. Lee takes Tigers in 6.
  • Brian is worried about people handing this series to the Tigers before they even play, but takes the Tigers in 6.
  • Mack Avenue Tigers breaks it down by component and likes the Tigers in 5.
  • Greg Eno goes position by position and finds the Tigers should win in 5.

Cardinals blogs

I was hoping to list a handful of Cards blogs predictions, but so far they aren’t up yet – except for Deadspin who took the Cardinals in 7 (and they have links to a bunch of national predictions).

But for the Cards fan perspective, check out Cardnilly, Viva el Birdos, Gas House Gang, Cardinals Diaspora, and Get Up Baby.

Mainstream Media Folk

  • Baseball Prospectus likes the Tigers in 6 in what is the most comprhensive preview I’ve seen so far.
  • The ESPN crew has the Tigers as the consensus, typically in 5 or 6 games.
  • John Donovan from CNNSI says Tigers in 6.
  • Ken Rosenthal says Cardinals in 7.
2006 Season, Managing & Strategy, Pitching, Playoffs

World Series Rotation

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As reported in the comments here, and on Kurt’s blog, Jim Leyland has set his playoff rotation. It will be Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers, Nate Robertson, and Jeremy Bonderman.

I like that Rogers is set up to pitch twice in Comerica Park. I like Nate Robertson taking the first start on the road.

I’m not a big fan of Bonderman being the guy to pitch just once in the series. He’s been second only to Kenny Rogers in the postseason while Justin Verlander has struggled in his 2 starts. He has allowed 19 baserunners and 3 homers in 10 2/3 innings. He survived against the Yankees and the offense picked him up against the A’s. As for his success against the Cardinals lineup, over 29 at-bats they have an OPS of 911 against them.

This also makes it very likely that Verlander will pitch twice in this series. That’s fine if it is a matter of circumstance, like if your team was pushed to 7 games and you have to go with who is most rested. The Tigers had the luxury of avoiding that and chose not to.

Now as I’ve said before each series, I don’t think the rotation will matter a great deal because it is quite balanced. I just don’t understand why Leyland would put the struggling rookie in this situation. Perhaps he thinks that the Cardinals will be just so fatigued it won’t matter. Or perhaps the advance scouts – who seem to have done an excellent job in the postseason – have seen something that indicates that Verlander would have the most success.

Any rotation would cause second guessing. And to a large extent Jim Leyland has earned the benefit of the doubt. Starting with Verlander just seems like a strange choice to this blogger.

UPDATE: The Cardinals named their rotation. It will be Anthony Reyes-Jeff Weaver-Chris Carpenter-Jeff Suppan

2006 Season, Playoffs, Tiger History

Bring on the Birds: Tigers and Cardinals in the World Series

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For the 3rd time the Tigers and Cardinals will meet in the World Series. Both previous tilts went the full 7 games. In 1934 the Cardinals “edged” the Tigers out with an 11-0 victory at Navin Field. But the Tigers turned the tables in 1968 when Series MVP Mickey Lolich out-dueled Bob Gibson in the deciding game.

But that’s all ancient history. This year the 2 teams struggled mightily down the stretch with the Tigers blowing a 10 game lead over the last 7 weeks of the season. Meanwhile the Caridnals nearly blew a 10 game lead in the last 2 weeks of the season. But look where they are now.

Here’s your first piece of exclusive information: Jim Leyland and Tony La Russa are long time friends.

I’ll be back with more in depth previews tomorrow. In the meantime, congratulations to the St. Louis Cardinals. If you’re looking ot hear from some happy fans, you can probably find them here:
Deadspin
Viva El Birdos
CardNilly
Cardinal Diaspora

2006 Season, Playoffs

The never-ending series

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Some quick links as things are tied-up and soggy in the 8th inning of the NLCS…

  • I made an appearance on 360thePitch’s Outsider Radio with Brandon Rosage. If you’re looking for a lot of umm’s (all from me, Brandon is smooth) you can hear it here.
  • Kurt points to a national piece that focuses celebratory Detroit riots – but it’s not what you’re used to. Somebody actually pointed out that Detroit has had a half dozen peaceful celebrations since Bubba in 1984 while riots pop up everywhere else.
  • It’s been a rough week for the local dailies who have a dozen writers assigned to cover what has amounted to 2 workouts and a meeting with Jim Leyland. As a result we know how many hot dogs are expected to sell this weekend.
  • In an article in the NY Sun, Christina Karhl from Baseball Prospectus commends the Tigers for some aggressive roster management this season. By regularly shuttling bench players too and from Toledo, it kept anyone from getting stale on the bench or in the bullpen.
  • You know the Fox Trax and other jazz that shows the velocity and break on a pitch? It’s even available on MLB.com’s Gamecast now. Well, somebody needs to be responsible for that and that person could be you next season.
2006 Season, Playoffs

World Series Activities – Sparky & Tram return

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The Tigers announced the pregame ceremonies for the first 2 games of the World Series today.

Rock and Roll Hall of Fame inductee, and Michigan native, Bob Seger will perform “America the
Beautiful” prior to Game One of the 2006 World Series at Comerica Park in Detroit. Tigers legends Al Kaline
and Willie Horton, accompanied by Detroit Tigers’ owner Mike Ilitch, will throw out the ceremonial first pitch
at Game One.
Prior to Game Two, legendary singer and songwriter Anita Baker will perform the U.S. National Anthem.
Sparky Anderson, Hall of Fame manager of the 1984 World Series champion Detroit Tigers, will throw out
the ceremonial first pitch before Game Two.
Members of the Boys & Girls Clubs of Southeastern Michigan will deliver the first game ball to the mound
at Games One and Two. At Game One, the Boys & Girls Club member will be accompanied to the mound by
Ernie Harwell, longtime voice of the Detroit Tigers and member of the Radio Hall of Fame. At Game Two,
the Boys & Girls Club member will be accompanied to the mound by Alan Trammell, MVP of the 1984 World
Champion Detroit Tigers.

It really is about time that Sparky was invited back to Comerica Park. It is also great that Trammell will have a chance to be honored by the fans one last time. Because of the way the season ended last year, fans didn’t have that chance. Regardless of what you think of Trammell’s managing, he is still one of the great all time Tigers and deserves to be honored as such.

2006 Season, Pitching, Playoffs

Mid Week Thoughts

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Briefly covering some topics and links as I watch game 6 of the NLCS…

The Rotation

One of the benefits of all the off time is that the rotation can be set however Jim Leyland desires. What we’ve learned is that Jim Leyland’s desires are often different than our own. But if it were up to me, I’d go with one of following 2 rotations:

Rogers-Bonderman-Robertson-Verlander: Kenny Rogers has been pitching like a man possessed and needs to be at the front of the rotation. In the interest of alternating arms, I went with Bonderman next. He’s pitched better than Justin Verlander in the postseason. Also, I think the Tigers would like to limit Verlander’s starts just to protect his arm. Robertson has started the first road game of each series so far, and it would seem to work in this situation also.

Bonderman-Rogers-Robertson-Verlander: This is almost identical with just the first 2 spots flipped. Everybody will be on extended rest, but Bonderman would be closest to his regular routine. Also, if the series were to last 6 games both of Kenny Rogers starts would come at Comerica Park. This isn’t a huge concern because Rogers has an ERA of 3.05 at Shea Stadium. But all of those starts came in 1999 so they are terribly relevant. If it means going to St. Louis, none of the starters have pitched in the new stadium so it is a wash.

As I’ve said before though, I don’t think the rotation makes a significant difference with this team. They are balanced and all very good so there aren’t clear advantages in who starts when and where. The other issue is that the Tigers don’t need to set their entire rotation. They can wait and see what happens in the first 2 games before making their decision on the next 2.

The layoff

There is a justifiable concern that the layoff will hurt a team that is red hot. Last year the 2005 White Sox – who have been compared to the Tigers many times – won the ALCS on October 16th and didn’t start the World Series until October 22nd. The White Sox swept the Astros.

!n 1996 the Yankees has a full week off while waiting for the Braves who’s series went to 7 games versus the Yankees 5. New York won that series 4 games to 2.

Finally in 1995, the Braves swept the NLCS while the Indians battled the Mariners for 6 games. The Braves had a week off and won the World Series in 6 games.

So in the 3 instances since the Wild Card where one league Champion has a week off and the other doesn’t, the rested team has prevailed. I think the bigger issue for the Tigers (and their eventual opponent) is the length of the NLCS series, not the length of the layoff.

Links

2006 Season, Contracts, Minors

Killing time

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After taking a couple days off, the Tigers will hit the field for a workout tomorrow. I’ll take today off as well, but I’ll hit the blog with more stuff tomorrow night.

In the meantime, for your reading pleasure…

Arizona Fall League

Last year I was watching Arizona Fall League games on gamecast and seeing Humberto Sanchez dominate. This year I haven’t even looked at a box score. Fortunately
Kurt’s got the update on Jordan Tata, Brent Clevlen, and AFL veteran Kody Kirkland.

Six of Jeter, half dozen of Polanco

Placido Polanco was a very deserving ALCS MVP. Tom Tango, esteemed sabermetrician and co-author of The Book, compares Polanco to leading AL MVP candidate Derek Jeter. Read the article to see who is more valuable, or at least who is more of a value.

The Ordonez contract, another look

Via Baseball Musings there is an article in the Pioneer Press that Magglio Ordonez is “worth every cent” of his contract. I said at the time of the signing that I didn’t think there was anyway that Ordonez would ever be worth his contract. Of course I didn’t expect him to help the team into the World Series in the 2nd year of his contract either.

Joe Sheehan points out (premium) that the Tigers now in the World Series, will benefit immensely from the additional revenue.

Now someone else making a lot less money may have been capable of similar production. But finding that player is always the tough part. The Tigers have what they have in Ordonez and that was enough to get them to the World Series. At the same time, it hasn’t prevented the team from spending money. They continue to add to the domestic and international scouting staffs and they drafted high-talent/tough sign guys and got them into the organization. Not all spending needs to be on free agents.

One other thing I said at the time of the signing was that it felt like an Ilitch move. I did that more to assign blame at the time. What’s fair is fair, and so the credit goes to him today.

2006 Season, Playoffs

Tigers ALCS Celebration Videos

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The beauty of the internet age. Yesterday the Tigers clinched a World Series birth and within 24 hours it’s all over the web in various forms.

The whole game can be downloaded free of charge from MLB.com in either WMV or MPEG4 format. If you just want the Magglio Ordonez walk off homer, you can get that 2 minute clip for just $.99.

And of course there is YouTube. The video below is the Fox feed. It’s a little jumpy but what makes it special is that Dan Dickerson’s radio call is synched with the video.

Enjoy…at least until it gets taken down.

2006 Season, Playoffs

ALCS Aftermath

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Did anyone really expect the Tigers to top the atmosphere that took place when they beat the Yankees? Sure, winning the ALCS is a bigger deal. But it’s hard to top beating the Yankees not to mention the celebration for the ages. Enter the tie game and walk off homer.

This game was the only part of the series that was close. Today marked the first time in the series that the A’s came to bat in any inning with a lead. The Tigers out hit, out pitched, and out defended the A’s. Like in the Yankees series, the Tigers appeared to be very prepared knowing exactly what would be coming at them. Of course getting key hit after key hit and double play after double play helps with that perception.

Am I surprised that the Tigers so soundly defeated the A’s. Yes and no. This team was consistently awesome the first 2/3 of the season so of course this type of performance was possible. But I am suprised that it all came together for 7 straight games.

Now the Tigers have a one week vacation, so everyone should be rested. Joel Zumaya should probably be available and Sean Casey said he was feeling better when interviewed after the game. Also, the rotation can be set in any order that Leyland prefers. Everyone will be on extended rest, even if Bonderman were to start game 1 (which might not be a bad idea).

Things of a celebratory nature

My 4 favorite elements of the walk off were:
1. The shot of Dave Dombrowski yelling “get out, get out , get out” and jumping around just like every other fan in the city.
2. Todd Jones running back like he was going to make a play on the ball in the bullpen
3. Placido Polanco incapable of running like a regular human being and doing this goofy skip step around the bases.
4. The expression on Craig Monroe’s face as he touched 3rd. It’s like it hit him at exactly that moment he was going to the World Series.

I’m sure videos will be popping up all over the place within a few hours. If I come across any, I’ll post them. Also, keep an eye out on MLB.tv. The other clinching games have been available for download for free and hopefully they’ll do the same this time.

What others are saying

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