The Cost of Losing

The Tigers have signed Magglio Ordonez to a 5 year, $75 million dollar contract.

According to CNNSI, here is how the contract breaks down

The 31-year-old Ordonez gets a $6 million signing bonus and a $6 million salary in 2005, meaning the Tigers’ exposure is $12 million.

His contract calls for a $15 million salary in 2006, $12 million in 2007, $15 million in 2008 and $18 million in 2009. Detroit has a $15 million option for 2010 with a $3 million buyout, and a $15 million option for 2011 with no buyout.

In addition, Ordonez’s salary in each of the option years would become guaranteed if he has 135 starts or 540 plate appearances in the previous season, or 270 starts or 1,080 plate appearances in the previous two seasons. If his 2010 salary becomes guaranteed under this provision, it would be at $18 million. The 2011 salary would be $15 million.

The good news is that the Tigers have only guaranteed $12 million in 2005. If his left knee acts up to the tune of 25 days on the DL in any season, the Tigers can void the deal. This protection is a key element in making the deal palatable.

I’m going to wait to comment further on this signing until I have a little longer to figure out what the Tigers were thinking.

First of all, as a fan right now I’m excited to add Ordonez to the Tigers lineup. The one thing about Ordonez that can’t be questioned is that he can flat out hit. Yes, his numbers may have been inflated a little from playing in US Cellular, but his road OPS is still .900. However, I’m stunned by the fact the Tigers are offering an average of $15 million a year over 5 years.

Ordonez made $14 million last year. He managed to warrant a raise despite only playing two months last year. Also, he is past his peak seasons. Even if his performance over the last few years (last year excluded) is worthy of $15 million a year, the chances that he continues that production as he ages in a bigger ball park is slim.

I know that the Tigers have to overpay and over commit to free agents as a penalty for their performance for the last decade (“the decade of crapulence”). Even with that context, this contract seems excessive. In other words they seemed to have overpaid even by their standards. I just don’t know what other teams were even in the neighborhood of a 4 to 5 year deal at any amount of money.

I know that Dombrowski isn’t an idiot and I have faith that he can restore the Tigers to a winning organization. While the Tigers made aggressive offers during the off-season, they managed to avoid ridiculous contracts that they would regret in the future. Now however, that strategy seems to have been abandoned. For that reason alone I have to believe this was much more an Illitch signing than a Dombrowski one, and for that I respect Illitch’s desire to win. Last year at this time I was worried that Pudge’s contract would limit what the Tigers could do in the future. To Illitch’s credit that wasn’t an issue this year as he committed $88 million to free agents.

I know it is fruitless to look at other signings this year as a point of reference, because the Tigers still aren’t playing on a level playing field. However, it is still disappointing to look at the Beltre’s and Beltran’s and wonder if 5 and 75 isn’t too much for a 31 year old coming off a severe injury, then how much was too much for younger players at positions of need in their primes.

Are the Tigers a better team now than they were without Ordonez? I don’t think you could argue that it isn’t. However, will the Tigers regret this contract two to three years from now? I don’t have a crystal ball, but my inclination is yes.

13 thoughts on “The Cost of Losing”

  1. Look into my eyes, David. You’re getting sleepy, very sleepy. Very good. Now when I snap my fingers, everything will be normal, except …

  2. This is totally an insane deal. Who did the Tigers imagine they were bidding against? Mags could hit .200/.210/.220 next year, and break both arms, and unless he has a recurrence of his specific injurty from last season, the Tigers can’t void him…

  3. Signing a Beltre or Beltran would have been awesome. But don’t forget, players don’t seem to want to come here. Signing Pudge last season, and Percival & Maggs this year, show that the Tigers are trying to improve this team. These guys are all studs, and will vastly improve this team, and put fannies in the seats. The common thread they have is, they have all had an injury. The Tigers are making themselves better by taking calculated risks on PROVEN major leaguers. When the all-star break gets here, and these three players are representing the Old English D, you will realize that, to get better, you have to take a risk. I don’t think that there’s a lot of things the Tigers did’nt consider about Maggs, but in my opinion, he’s a top 3 AL outfielder, who will have no problem winning over the fans of Detroit. To get players to come here, you have to overpay (thanks, Mr Steinbrenner). When the season ends, and Maggs has his typical .300, 30, 115, you will all know that he was well worth the risk. You may even ask yourself, how did the Tigers get him for only 75 mil?

  4. Will-The Tigers were bidding against the last 10 years of losing. As Ed commented, they do have to overpay. And as for him falling flat on his face and being injured and the Tigers getting nothing, isn’t that true of every signing?

    Ed-I know the Tigers have to overpay. What I’m saying is that pre-injury on the open market he probably doesn’t get $15 million. Here he is post injury when everybody else is afraid to go more than one year on him. If the Tigers wanted to go 2-3 years at $15 that’s fine, or if they wanted to go 4-5 years at $12 that’s fine. They went way high on years and dollars. I’m all for calculated risks (ie Percival), but this seems more like desperation to me.

  5. I guess, ultimately, its hard to quantify how much the losing decade makes the Tigers have to overspend. I’m sure Boras was telling them constantly, “Mags doesn’t want to play for a loser” but come on– dude was coming from the Freakin White SOx!– this isn’t like Jeter’s coming free agency in 2010 (or whenever)…

    I’m sure it played a factor, just not sure how large. ANyway, great looking blog…

  6. I think this totally comes from Mr. I, yeah I think they overpaid for him but at the same time I am excited to get him. Lets just hope that the NHL never resolves their issues so his salary won’t be a problem because Mr. I keeps pouring money into the Tigs!

  7. Will – I’m right there with you. This is an Ilitch move.

    Dan – While it does give us an out if the injury occurs, it doesn’t give us an out if he begins to regress in years 3 and later.

    Too bad Ordonez didn’t play third base. This would have been a better deal.

  8. I’ve got no problem with this move. If Mags can return to being even 80 or 90 percent of what he was, he is a huge upgrade. Let’s face it, the Tigs lineup lacked anyone you really had to worry about from a power standpoint. Pena was the only guy with more than 20 HR. Mags hit 9 in 200 AB last year. I’m hoping for the best, and if not, it’ll just go up there with the Easley and Higginson contracts or the Luis Gonzalez or Juan Gonzalez deals. It’s not like we haven’t been disappointed before.

    I think Mags will put up better numbers than Beltre. I’ve got no faith in that guy and I’m very glad the Tigers didn’t sign him.

  9. It may well be desperation, but when players talk with your team, and show signs of interest, then go off to sign somewhere else (using your offer as leverage), you do get desperate. Knowing how Boras deals with teams, he may have made it necessary to give up the years and dollars in order to sign Maggs. I still believe that Maggs will be healthy (look at T.O. yesterday, six weeks removed from surgery, and he was the best reciever on the field), and he’ll make us all forget about the fiascos (Easley, Higgy, JuanGone, etc…) of bad contracts past.

  10. I share Ken’s optimism, at least for the next few years. The problem though is that Ordonez has a guaranteed deal till he’s 36, at which time we cant resonably expect him to be “80 or 90 percent the player he was.”

    I share the concern many have expressed regarding the injury clause protecting the team only in ’05, and only for a specific injury to sideline him for essentially one month. But what should also be of concern are the two option years that start in 2010.

    As I read it, yes, meeting a minimum in starts and/or plate appearances seems to further protect the team against an injured ballplayer. But what if he isn’t hurt in 2009? What if he is simply an ineffective 36-year old corner outfielder? If Tram is benching him, you better believe Boras will raise a ruckus.

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