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With a disastrous season completed it is time to head into the offseason. Given the gravity of the collapse, you know with the high payroll and the last place-edness, there is probably a tendency to overreact and second-guess. While a deep dive analysis is definitely called for, there is also some inaccuracy being bandied about. With that in mind, some thoughts as we head into what will likely be a tumultuous winter.
Dave Dombrowski did not abandon his philosophy
I’ve heard this one frequently. The common thread is that Dombrowski abandoned his pitching first philosophy in favor of “buiding a slow pitch softball team.” Dombrowski has always believed in stock piling young pitching and using it as the building blocks of a team. Whether that entails using the pitchers on his own team, or trading it to fill needs, he’s always used young pitching.
The Renteria trade was made in large part for defense, not to build a slow pitch slugging softball team. The benefit of Renteria was that he was to be a 2 way player. The problem was that while Renteria was a defensive upgrade, it was a small upgrade (Guillen was -12 in 1074 innings at short in ‘07, Renteria was -9 in 1173 innings in ‘08 according to Fielding Bible +/-) and his offense was beyond absent the first half of the season. The trade failed, there’s no question, but it wasn’t a change of philosophy.
As for Cabrera, defense was never a part of the issue. It was entirely an offensive move. But it was also an opportunity that doesn’t come along that often. Players like Cabrera don’t grow on trees and to add an elite player at age 25 is largely unheard of. It is the kind of big splash move that Dombrowski has been known for throughout his career.
As for the rest of the staff, they were far worse than could have reasonably been expected. While Willis struggled last year and was trending down, to get nothing from him was unexpected to everyone. Robertson was never a top of the rotation starter, but was the epitome of a solid back of the rotation guy. To compete, along with Kenny Rogers, for worst starter in the league wasn’t part of any reasonable plan. And then there was Verlander adding a run and a half to his ERA. That your entire starting rotation would be injured or significantly underperforming wasn’t part of any plan or strategy and more than could have been mitigated.
The window isn’t closed
I should adjust that and say “the window isn’t closed if Ilitch doesn’t want it to be.” The boss could go all Huizenga and say “cut-cut-cut” but I don’t see that happening. This team was positioned to go for it in both 2008 and 2009. Because 08 was crap doesn’t mean you need to abandon 09 as well. The offense should be good again next year, and it isn’t unreasonable to think that the pitching staff will see some return to non-crapitude next year.
In terms of trading, they’d be selling low on most of the players that fans want to see traded. They could probably get a nice return for Armando Galarraga, Curtis Granderson, and Miguel Cabrera, but who really wants to see them shopped?
Don’t overreact
Everybody wants speed, defense, and starters, and bullpen arms. Some better defense would be nice, but don’t sacrifice offense completely. The Tigers are ready to make that move at third with the Inge pronouncement. It means they can’t afford to do it at both catcher and shortstop.
The bullpen was awful, but 5 years and $75 million to fix it will be money poorly spent. As for starters, is it worth a second round draft pick to sign a Derek Lowe type starter? (it might be if the Tigers can get the draft pick compensation for Renteria)
I’m not saying do nothing. Clearly this team has holes at multiple positions and another starter and a 2-3 new bullpen arms are clearly needed. But I still think, and perhaps this is naive, but good teams can have bad seasons. This team wasn’t as good as we thought going in, and it isn’t as bad as we think right now. I’ll borrow this conclusion from Nate Silver’s piece in Baseball Prospectus ($) and quote sparingly because it is premium content.
Bad years happen to good clubs. The key for the Tigers will simply be not to panic, nor to try and save face with guys like Renteria and Willis whose projections don’t really warrant it. The Tigers need to budget somewhere between $15-$20 million for perhaps three pitchers next year, but with the contracts of Renteria, Todd Jones, Kenny Rogers, and Ivan Rodriguez all coming off the books, they can easily afford to do so without increasing payroll.
…
This has been a frustrating season in Detroit, but hardly a disastrous one in terms of the club’s long-term fortunes. There have been several pleasant surprises this year in Galarraga, Joyce, and Brandon Inge’s smooth transition back to the catcher position*. From top to bottom, the Tigers still rank somewhere in the top ten in the major leagues in terms of their overall talent pool, and they should be on track to return to contention with some relatively common-sense fixes.
*The Inge part was written on August 14th before Inge completely collapsed down the stretch offensively and started allowing a PB per game.
{ 156 comments… read them below or add one }
Good summary Bill. I also don’t think drastic changes are needed this winter. Changes yes but they don’t need to blow up the team.
Lee
I’m in the camp with Lee and Billfer. The bullpen will not be as bad as they were this year. Peep the 07 White Sox bullpen numbers (Bobby Jenks aside) and see how much guys like Matt Thornton improved drastically. The window is firmly open for 2009.
I also think there is a need to keep an eye on 2010 — that is to make tsure the window stays open for another two or three years. The major reason is Porcello. If he and JV and Bonderman should, by some chance, all pitch near their potential in ‘10, then the argument will not be whether the Tigers have the best three-deep rotation, but whether they have the best in how many years.
But to get there, we need not to kill JV and Bondo’s arms in ‘09 (by pitch count and rushing back, respectively). As far as I can tell, Ordonez is the only cog whose personal window could be damagingly lower in two years, and even though he lost 20 points of BA this year, he still finished 5th in the league.
So 2009 is not a pure rebuilding year, and opportunity can emerge even when not entirely expected (see 2006). But I wouldn’t mind treating it as a bridge year, of some sorts.
“but good teams can have bad seasons.”
How true.
“It means they can’t afford to do it [sacrifice offense for defense] at both catcher and shortstop.”
I think they can. I know they can, in fact.* Whether they should is another matter.
“The offense should be good again next year”
* This good offense was good with 3 holes in it in 2008. DH, SS, C. Thus my contention. And it’s not as though Inge at 3B is forcing Guillen out of the lineup. Inge hitting merely at his career level would be a net plus at 3B - no sacrifice at all. I wouldn’t bet on a .200 BA from him in 2009.
Smoking Loon: The problem with moving Inge back to 3rd is that the hole behind the plate with probably still exists regardless. There wasn’t much production from Catchers around the league, and it seems to be a very hit and miss position. Just because a Catcher hit okay this year doesn’t mean he will hit well next year. In Inge’s case, his #’s have been in steady decline, and while they may increase next year because he isn’t behind the plate, it probably won’t be enough, even if he plays stellar at 3rd.
My opinion has always been that you should have a stellar defender at SS, that should be our goal, retreading Renteria because he’s available should only be an option if we can’t get someone who can really shore up the defense back there.
Is Inge as bad behind the plate as the last month showed, or was that he was just that bad because he can only handle the position about half the time? If the later is the case, then we should just stick with Inge half-time and bring in someone who carry the other half or go to Dusty. Either way, if they succeed, they could play more, and if not, they only stink half the time, and Inge stinks it up the other half. The stink you know.
I say we leave Guillen at 3rd, he played adequately there after a very rough start. That leaves Joyce/Thames in left, with Maggs out in right. I don’t think you would really get a lot more Maggs at this point, so I will mention the unthinkable - put Curtis on the Market!
We have a bunch of heavy contracts we can’t unload, and hope they come back, why not try to get a closer and maybe more for him. It would create a big hole, but fill another, possibly more. The question is, would the replacement in CF be such a decline as to outweigh the gains returned.
Just a thought. BTW, is this what the starting rotation looks like?:
1. Verlander - 5 innings/ 125 pitches - arm falls off in August
2. Bonderman - comes back in May, not effective until July
3. Battlestar - solid, but not at the level he was this year
If someone offers something good, SS or C, do we bite on it, and hope that guys 5 and 6 just had horrendous seasons and will be productive next year? I just think the return here is limited in same way it is for Maggs.
4. Garcia - incentive ladden contract with an club option for 2010, is that possible?
5. Willis - walks the first 9 guys
Robertson - lets the next 9 guys stroke the ball
Mostly questions to get people talking.
But Loon, there’s pretty good odds that Guillen is below average as both an offensive and defensive player in left field. Polanco will be another year older, as will Ordonez. So now you have a black hole at third, an underperformer (not bad, but below average), a player approaching averageness at second, and mysteries at short, DH, and catcher. So CF, RF, and 1B figure to be above average and left field should be moderately productive and that’s it next year if you go with defense first at catcher and short.
As for Bonderman, everything I’ve heard has him ready for the start of the year and that isn’t a matter of rushing him back.
This sounds exactly like the advice my broker gave me three months ago. ‘Stay the course, think long term.’ Lets hope this works out better than that.
One of the interesting things about Nate Silver is how confident he sells his position, whether it be baseball or his polling stuff at fivethirtyeight.com. Some times he’s right, sometimes he’s wrong, but he’s always confident! Just like Joe Morgan and Jim Cramer.
Three months isn’t long-term. Neither in investments nor in baseball.
Gratz to the Rays, btw. They are my temporary (post-season) Tigers.
We started this season with literally no holes to fill.
We ended the season with more unanswered questions than a Sarah Palin debate.
I don’t think we are any worse than we were after the 2005 season. We mostly just need to find replacements for Todd Jones, Kenny Rogers, Pudge Rodriguez, and Edgar Renteria. There is no reason to go looking for much else.
“I don’t think we are any worse than we were after the 2005 season. We mostly just need to find replacements for Todd Jones, Kenny Rogers, Pudge Rodriguez, and Edgar Renteria. There is no reason to go looking for much else.”
I think we are going to need just a tad bit more help in the pen than just finding a replacement for Todd Jones
We started the season with no holes to fill?
Funny, I seem to remember hanging on every movement of Francisco Cruceta as he tried to secure his visa. I believe we were so intrigued by his potential arrival because our bullpen was manned partially by Denny Bautista, Aquilino Lopez, Jason Grilli and Yorman Bazardo.
I’m not saying I saw this season coming, but saying there were literally no holes to fill seems a little revisionist.
Have we considered filling the hole at Catcher (which we created when we traded Pudge, and still would have had anyway) by signing a FA. There is this guy out of NY, looks a lot like Pudge, only a year older next year.
I’m only afraid they might actually do it.
I agree with Billfer about LF, Guillen would be below average in both categories, while he would be just above hitting at 3rd, not a clue as to how he rated defensively.
Our preseason staff-
Verlander
Bonderman
Rogers
Willis
Robertson
Jones
Rodney
Seay
Brydak
Minor
Grilli
Bazardo
and Zumaya on the DL
The only real question was if Bazardo was the real deal, so really we had no holes at that time.
Lopez, Cruceta, Rapada, or Bautista weren’t even expected to make the team when Spring started.
I guess I should of said at the start of Spring Training. Of coarse, once the actual season started things were different. We dropped Brydak. Rodney was on DL. Bazardo was crap. Willis was never right. Grilli got grilled. The rest is history.
I think Guillen was very not-so-good at 3rd (i’m still waiting for the adjusted stats with the personal discomfort games taken out).
Guillen had an error for every double play he started (actually 14 ERR 15 DP, 750 INN). Inge started 1 fewer DP (14) in 430 fewer innings (I think best in AL). Someday I’ll come up with my own point system, but I feel like the +/- ratings don’t capture the difference fully.
The worst part is, and this is a horrid hunchlike observation, I think Carlos KNOWS this, and I think it hurts Carlos to not be playing well, and effects the other players on the field; he’s one guy everyone seems to look up to. So I think it’s worth considering that perhaps the switch with Inge to 3rd/Guillen to LF is something being done for Guillen as much as it’s something being done for improving defense or for Inge.
[Strangely, statistically Renteria doesn't seem like he was as bad as, well, as he was. Maybe it's because his mistakes came at crucial times--which isn't really taken into account by the way--or, which seems, more likely to me, in clusters. Or perhaps he blundered in obvious areas and was good in less obvious things.]
Our preseason staff- my expectation (reality)
Verlander - With Santana traded to the NL, he became my Odds on Cy Young favorite. 20 wins and an ERA around 3 should be doable. ( had a terrible season by his standards, only 11 wins and a 4.84 ERA, this would of been a decent year for someone like Nate Robertson though )
Bonderman - If he could get past his 1st inning struggles, he’d be a perennial 15 game winner. ( He didn’t struggle as much in the 1st inning, but he had some control problems, and piled on the walks. He then had season ending surgery to repair a blood clot )
Rogers- I thought he could give us good consistent starts most times out, especially at home. He could win 15 games, with an ERA around 4 ( age caught up to him, he was pitching batting practice most nights, had a 5.7 ERA)
Willis - At worst he should give us 200 innings and an ERA around 4.5 ( A joke of a season. )
Robertson - He’s one of the better 5th starters in the league, should be good for about 200 innings and an ERA around 4.5 ( Brutal season. 6.35 ERA )
Jones - He gets the job done in save situations. ( He got the job done for the 1st half of the season. 1st blown save was June 28th! Got hurt and never really had it again. He retired. )
Rodney - One of the best change ups in baseball. He should be a solid set-up guy. A 3.5 ERA sounds about right. (Injured for almost half the season, he was very inconsistent, and didn’t handle pressure to well. ERA 4.91)
Seay - He’s the best guy out of the pen. Looking for a repeat of that. ERA below 3. ( He started the season great, but finished on a bad note. ERA 4.47)
Brydak - solid lefty, ERA around 3. Great guy to have. (dropped from club before season started because he had a lousy spring training)
Minor - Long reliever now, might be a potential closer if given the chance. He’s pitches are wicked when he’s on. ERA around 3. (Pitched short relief, had a terrible April, but he was brilliant afterwards, sent to minors, then came back as a starter, and was one of the few bright spots on this staff. ERA 4.27)
Grilli - He’s the perfect guy to pitch in no pressure and mop up situations. We’ll need him for all those games we’re winning by 6+ runs. He should get lots of work. ERA around 4. ( He got promoted to being a stopper. He sucked in those situations. He was doomed and He was ran out of town. Ended up with best ERA on the pitching staff with 3.29 )
Bazardo- He’ll be a great long reliever and get some spot starts on occasion. He pitched great last year when we needed him. He’ll make us forget about Jurrjens. ERA around 3.50( Lost his father, then lost his job, then his arm went. ERA 24.00 )
and Zumaya on the DL - If he’s 100% when he comes off the DL he should be able to help the bullpen ALOT. (Stunk badly, had no control )
It just occurred to me Rogers pitched worse than it seems, since he pitched for a team with better fielding than the rest of the Tigers. Because of his fielding.
Think about it: Verlander led the team in innings, and had 24 assists and started 1 DP as a fielder.
Rogers pitched 28 fewer innings, had 50 assists, and started 11 DP (a DP per inning rate by the way better than any 3B in the league).
I’m guessing if you swapped the fielding abilities of each, Rogers would’ve had a real good chance of 6.00+
If this team is to contend in 2009, I think it will look more like the 2006 team (starting pitching being the strength) rather than what we thought the 2008 team would be (killer lineup).
Verlander/Bonderman/Galarraga has the potential to be a very good 1-2-3 combination at the front of the rotation (emphasis on “potential”).
“We ended the season with more unanswered questions than a Sarah Palin debate.”
That’s gold, Chief.
Hey Chris in D - I think you’re at least as twisted and deranged as I am. Do you see the same transpositional potential I do in the following 2 sentences?:
“We started this season with literally no holes to fill.
We ended the season with more unanswered questions than a Sarah Palin debate.”
Just nod if you do. Don’t want to start any trouble.
(Not poking fun at you, Chief. Just a kind of “found humor” thing involving perfectly valid and innocent statements.)
“But Loon, there’s pretty good odds that Guillen is below average as both an offensive and defensive player in left field (etc.)”
Billfer, what you say makes me think of the very real possibility that the Tigers could go into 2009 counting on their offense to be good enough the same way they went into 2008 thinking the same about the pitching. Which could backfire the same way. It’s a good point. But it’s a chance they may be practically forced to take - I think the need for pitching help is that pressing.
The big trades and signings, if any happen, have to be for 2-3 pitchers (don’t you think?), and after that I would guess that they wouldn’t have any trade pieces or money left over for stars at SS, 3B, or C.
At least if Guillen is below average defensively in LF, it won’t hurt the team as much as if he were still an infielder. So he’s got that going for him.
The trouble with the Tigers’ pitching (minus the guys who are retiring or obviously won’t be invited back) is that it’s such a crowded field of guys who could be good and guys who could bounce back. It’s going to take a wizard of a pitching coach, a guy with a vision, to sort all this out and make the right decisions.
The trouble with the Tigers’ position players is that the array just doesn’t mesh with the requirement that the batting lineup subsequently has to take the field and play 8 different positions. How much more convenient it would be if Raburn was a C, Thames a 3B, Inge a SS, Sheffield a IB, and Cabrera a LF.
The trouble with Jim Leyland may be that he can’t manage a team that’s expected to win. The playing of hunches and willingness to try “crazy things,” the approach that worked so well before, suddenly takes a left turn when the spotlight is on. Expectations should be at least a little lower for 2009 as compared to 2008. It might be wise to hold off on that extension, and if the Tigers actually make the playoffs in 2009… let Leyland go before 2010. That’s right. That’s what I said.
The question with Guillen now seems to be whether he’ll ever be healthy enough to hit the way they’re counting on him to. I used to think putting him at DH was so obvious, but now I don’t even have that.
I wouldn’t mind him in LF so much if the Tigers didn’t already have 19 outfielders. If we are to take the announcement of Guillen in LF seriously, it can only mean one of the following:
a) There is such deep and abiding faith in Sheffield’s return to form that Thames is expendable (I don’t like this)
b) The Tigers see less in Joyce and Thomas than we do, so they’re either expendable or spare parts until they become expendable (I don’t like this, either)
c) They are sending a message to Sheffield that, no, you are not going to play LF here, ever, so don’t even think about it, and by the way, either retire already or accept a trade, why don’t you? (I like this)
d) There are secret plans telated to c) where Ordonez moves to DH and Thames and Joyce get RF (I like this)
e) It’s a bluff, and Guillen is going to be traded (hmmm)
f) It’s a bluff, and Guillen is going to be traded (hmmm), and they’re going to sign - Raul Ibanez! ha ha ha ha ha
g They were only kidding
h) None of the above
OK, here’s something I haven’t seen anyone discuss at all…
Rogers clearly doesn’t have the stamina to start in the majors any longer, and he must know that, but he hasn’t announced his retirement yet. He says he only wants to pitch in Detroit. He was a decent pitcher before the All-Star break, and very good (2.68 ERA) in June. I think you just have to presume he can’t go over 100 innings anymore…
Period ERA - W - L - IP - H - R - ER - HR - BB - SO
Pre-All Star 4.55 - 6 - 6 - 114.2 - 129 - 64 - 58 - 11 - 45 - 44
Post-All Star 7.93 - 3 - 7 - 59.0 - 83 - 54 - 52 - 11 - 26 - 38
So… Why not consider him for the bullpen? He could offer up 50-80 innings doing shorter appearances. He could pitch in mid-game pressure situations, and possibly share some of the load as a closer. Before you reject this idea prematurely, are you really telling me that he’s not better than anyone currently in the bullpen?
I think it’s at least worth taking a look at him in Spring Training in a bullpen capacity.
“There is this guy out of NY, looks a lot like Pudge”
I’ve had that thought, Neal. If he’d willing to platoon with Ryan, well… hmmm… I don’t know.
Fascinating, scotsw. Rogers spent a lot of time in the pen earlier in his career. Certainly something to ponder. I wonder if the Tigers or Rogers will. Hope so.
Loon/Neal - Do you put any credence into the rumors surrounding Pudge’s departure? That he was acting like a prima donna who wouldn’t call for a pitch in the dirt with runners on base because he didn’t want to have to block it? I don’t take much at face value, but it did seem to be a get-him-outta-here-NOW! kind of trade. If there’s any truth to them at all, I’ll be the catcher here before Pudge.
Leyland indicated pretty clearly that pudge was not in their plans as a catcher for 2009, thus the trade. I’d be very surprised if they signed him.
Mark,
Because Leyland says he’s not, that’s precisely why we should think he might be.
If someone believes Leyland, I’ve got some Real Estate in Florida they might be interested in.
I don’t take much from the idea that Pudge didn’t want to work behind the plate.
I was all for transitioning Inge to be the 2009 starting Catcher, and that was last winter! Unfortunately, Inge didn’t show that he could man the position, at least not full time.
If Pudge is willing to take a role and accept that that he would only play half the time, it seems to make some sense, then you would have some options, such as splitting with Inge or Ryan. Is Ryan ready? Is it better to have him play half the time in the Majors, or all the time at AAA?
If we didn’t burn bridges in trading him, why not sign as a bridge to 2010? Are there options that are significantly better, that aren’t just hopes, and wouldn’t require us to give up players or prospects?
I just don’t know what to think of Guillen. If he can play 3rd at average level, then I do think he’s a better fit than Inge.
We just need to make a major defensive improvement at SS in order to do that. Who’s out there? Furcal, if he keeps playing well will drive up his price, and he’s over 30, with a history of injuries, do we want that?
It seems like the plan is to just hope the defensive moves are major improvements, and the pitchers bounce back so that the offensive production, which hopefully stays the same, is enough to allow for 92 wins.
If, if, if, Guillen improves slightly, Sheff improves significantly, and the rest have good years again, it really all rests on timely hitting, the Twins and White Sox had it this year, maybe we’ll have it next year.
About Pudge returning: If he was the best guy available, I think they would go after him, no matter past prima donna behavior or Leyland’s ever-changing and soon-forgotten plans. But he’s probably not the best guy available and probably no more happy to platoon with anyone than before.
Leyland never called Pudge “my everyday catcher,” so you just can’t be sure he’s been ruled out as the everyday catcher.
The top priorities for 2009, as I see it:
1. Sign or trade for a bullpen anchor. They have lots of talent and no one to build around. No one.
2. Sign or trade for another starting rotation anchor. Verlander is one. One is not enough. Everyone else is just a question mark.
3. Upgrade defense at SS.
4. Sign or trade for a veteran C to platoon with Ryan or start until Ryan’s ready to come up from Toledo.
“If this team is to contend in 2009, I think it will look more like the 2006 team (starting pitching being the strength) rather than what we thought the 2008 team would be (killer lineup).”
Funny thing about 2006. If I’m not mistaken, going into the season, starting pitching - all the pitching - was as full of question marks as there will be going into 2009, and the lineup wasn’t seen as killer. Somehow they got it done, sans Cabrera, Sheffield, and Renteria, and - remarkably - even before Fossum, Farnsworth, and Glover showed up.
The thing that has me the most optimistic for next year is the idea that (knock on wood) Murphy’s Law can’t strike as hard again (or would that be the definition of?).
I hope its reasonable to expect across the board improvements in the rotation’s numbers, if only because they were so dismal its hard to go anywhere but up.
Assuming an injury-free spring training, expect the offense to be better, and better earlier with both Granderson and Cabrera producing early.
I suppose we won’t hear much until after the W.S. this year, but is there any early word at who’ll replace the pitching coaches?
I don’t know if this means anything, but following up in a crude way on how the Tigers infield, black holes included, fared in comparison to CHI and MIN. I’d appreciate any refinements…I just kinda wanted see if the 3B/SS/C combo played a big role in holding the Tigers back (offensively) and possible prompt some research to similar offensive players with bigger defensive upsides.
I didn’t bother with BA since I was too lazy to figure it out for the entire IF as a unit.
CHI
O. Cabrera
AJ. Pierzynski
Swisher*
A. Ramirez
Konerko
Crede
Uribe
362 runs / 351 rbi
448* runs / 420* rbi
*Swisher split time between 1B and outfield…so didn’t know how to factor that.
MIN
Morneau
Mauer
Punto
Harris
Casilla
Buscher
383 runs / 383 rbi
DET
Cabrera
Inge
Pudge
Polanco
Guillen
Renteria
Rayburn*
Santiago*
386 runs / 377 rbi
416* runs / 415* rbi
*With Rayburn and Santiago
So there you go, not entirely sure what to make of it as I’m presenting it, other than to say I don’t see an enormous gap and I wouldn’t bemoan a movement towards defense on the Tigers part.
Who was the guy this spring who said Miguel Cabrera was so bad he’d be out of baseball in 2 years?
I haven’t heard much more of that talk lately….why is that?
I know! He’s already out of baseball, right? Maybe ‘out of baseball’ just meant he quits playing when the season’s over. That guy was right all along. And we were all sooo critical.
greg-
is that land near the beach???
your point is a good one, however, clearly dombrowski felt the same way as he’s the one that pulled the trigger on the deal. that leads me to believe that it’s more than just leyland talking.
That was Chris, greg (not the one from Dallas). Essentially, he was incapable of understanding the concept of “small sample size”.
Dre: Agreed — some people act like we’re the only team without .300 hitters at every position.
I say we convince Kenny to stay on one more year as SS. Since he’s such a great fielder. I think he swings the stick okay too. You may find he’s better than Renteria at both!
@smoking loon
Or they’ve already worked out a trade where they send Magglio to Texas for Salty but they can’t announce it until after the World Series like with Renteria last year.
^Not reporting this as fact in any way shape or form. Wild ass speculation on my part.
“Somehow they got it done, sans Cabrera, Sheffield, and Renteria, and - remarkably - even before Fossum, Farnsworth, and Glover showed up.”
Without Glover? I don’t buy it.
“Without Glover? I don’t buy it.”
I know what you’re saying, Dave. I’ve heard some compelling arguments that the whole 2006 season was a staged hoax, anyway, like the “moon landing” in 1969 and all those subsequent “Apollo missions.” Even money that Glover “disappears” before Opening Day 2009 and thus becomes unavailable for questioning as to his whereabouts in 2006. You didn’t hear it from me, but… well, just go to gloverusedtobegrilli.com and read all about it. Suffice it to say that there are things certain people don’t want made public.
Loon-
“gloverusedtobegrilli.com”
seriously you couldn’t have a catchier name, i think you just founded the next firejoemorgan.
Dre
Too bad I can’t afford to register the domain name right now. Someone grab it quick! At least keep it “in the (DTW) family.”
Loon-
what’s wrong? they charge by the letter?
Dre - Heh. (I love “heh.” Nothing captures a chuckle quite like heh.) No, trouble is that they just charge. I’m lucky DTW is free. Hope that doesn’t give billfer any ideas…
Before this past season started, I was vocal about our bullpen being a huge hole on this team. It turns out we had plenty of holes, but the most glaring is in the bullpen. We HAVE to get a closer. I know Sabermetric Junkies think that Closers are interchangeable and that anyone can do it. I completely disagree.
To me, it’s like a kicker in football, if you don’t have one, you might as well forget about winning close games. This teams needs someone they can rely on night in night out to win the close games. Blowing 27 saves is unacceptable. Think if they had not blown half of those where we might have been. It seems K-Rod is out of the question and Fuentes would be great, but I think we’ll be out of the bidding war on him too. Hopefully Itllitch will continue to open his pocketbook so we can get a solid one, if not, we are going to have try to find an unproven young guy to do it. At this point, could be a risk worth taking because we are going to have to have a LOT of things go right for us next year to be good.
I still feel like we have enough talent to compete though. Miggy is the real deal. Hopefully we can keep Maggs and Sheffield either finds a fountain of youth or gets out of town somehow. The way it’s looking, the only thing we can do would be to put Inge at 3B, find a platoon at C, move Guillen to LF (unless we can get rid of Sheff and put Guillen at DH and leave a Joyce/Thames or Thomas platoon in LF) and find a SS. I think it would be GREAT to get a guy like Rafael Furcal who is a free agent to maybe put at the top of the lineup, play solid D and add some much needed speed to this team and move Grandy down to third in the lineup, but that probably won’t happen either. If we could get a defensive stop gap at SS until Iorg is ready our infield defense would go from a big negative to maybe the strongest IF defense in the AL.
Starting pitching is a huge question mark. We have plenty of guys that CAN turn it around and it COULD be solid, but who knows. Verlander is too good to be as bad as he was last year, Bondy hopefully can come back and be dominant, I think Galarraga was the best thing to happen to us in 2008 and I think he’ll be a solid middle of the rotation guy. That leaves 2 spots in the rotation for Willis, Robertson, Miner, maybe Garcia and maybe a low level free agent. It’s not great, but we at least have some depth there and hopefully a few of these guys step up. As I said earlier, the bullpen has to be filled out better. It’s obvious we can’t rely on Rodney and Zumaya, but we almost have to. To hedge their bets, they need to bring in at least a closer and another reliable middle reliever (I heard Juan Cruz mentioned before by Bilfer and I think he would be PERFECT) and just hope Seay can rebound after that shaky finish to the season. It’s going to be tricky, but I trust DD to get it done.
The following is in today’s Chicago Tribune:
Rothschild has a really good track record getting a lot out of Ted Lilly and their young kids (plus the Cubs also led the league in strikeouts - again - which meshes with Dombrowski’s love of power pitching) and Leyland wanted him a couple years ago but he decided to stayin Chicago. I would totally be fine with that hire.
‘I would totally be fine with that hire.”
Yes. Good post, and thanks, Mark.
The Loon Plan (acting as owner/GM/manager):
Hire Larry Rothschild (Mark said so). Get a SP stud (LHP preferred), 1-2 stud bullpen guys (one a closer, maybe a guy not closing now but ready to do it), and a solid veteran catcher. Trade Guillen and Rodney, maybe Dolsi or Cruceta. Trade-available: Anyone but Cabrera, Granderson, Verlander, Ordonez, and Galarraga. See about Rogers coming back, to the bullpen this time (scotsw said so). Get rid of Sheffield at all costs. Let Renteria go. Get rid of Fossum, Farnsworth, and Glover. Bonderman/Garcia/Willis/Miner/Robertson compete for the final 2 rotation spots in the spring. Bonderman doesn’t get a free pass, but of course you don’t just throw him away. It’s rehab if he’s not ready. 2 of the 3 that don’t win a spot must go at all costs, Willis not necessarily exempted. One guy who doesn’t win a spot goes to the pen for long relief/emergency standby, at least temporarily. Zumaya and Lopez go to Toledo to become starters waiting in the wings. Cabrera goes to LF, Thames to 1B, Ordonez to DH. Inge learns SS as a second language.
STARTERS: New Stud, Verlander, Galarraga, any of 10 possible combos for the last 2 spots, Zumaya and Lopez on standby
BULLPEN: New Stud Closer, Seay, Rapada, Cruceta or New Semi-Stud, Dolsi or New Semi-Stud, Leftover Starter Guy, and one of (Fien/Rogers?/Lambert/Another Tigers Minor League Guy) for the last spot
C New Solid Vet/Ryan
Plan B - Vance Wilson?/Ryan
Plan C - Ryan/Inge (reserve only)
1B Thames/Larish
Plan B - Thames
Plan C - Larish
Plan D - Cabrera
2B Polanco
Plan B - New Guy
Plan C - Raburn
Plan D - Hollimon (later, maybe)
SS Santiago
Plan B - New Guy
Plan C - Iorg (as reserve)
Plan D - Inge (reserve only)
3B Inge
Plan B - Hessman
Plan C - Raburn
Plan D - New Guy
Plan E - Larish (reserve only)
RF Joyce
Plan B - Ordonez
Plan C - Joyce/Thames
Plan D - Thomas (later)
CF Granderson
Plan B (all as reserves) Raburn, Inge, Thomas (later)
LF Cabrera*
Plan B - Joyce
Plan C - Thames
Plan D - Joyce/Thames
Plan E - Raburn
Plan F - Thomas (later)
DH Ordonez
Plan B - Thames
Plan C - Cabrera
Plan D - Larish/Joyce
Plan E - Raburn
The lineup (though I hate like damn not still having Guillen or Sheffield available to bat leadoff):
SS Santiago
2B Polanco
CF Granderson
LF Cabrera
DH Ordonez
RF Joyce
1B Thames/Larish
C New Solid Vet/Ryan
3B Inge
BENCH: Raburn, Ryan (usually), Thames or Larish, Iorg or Hollimon (later) or New SS-IF Bench Guy or even Santiago if we end up with Orlando Cabrera or Rafael Furcal or someone (by happenstance) or one of Thomas (later) or Hessman if Inge can become the backup SS.
* Yeah, I used to think that was so preposterous.
One mad plan among many. What’s yours?
GM Loon-
Without getting into Thames’ ability to play every day, why swap positions with Cabrera? I actually liked how well Cabrera was adjusting to 1B and he’s a tall guy so he’s got reach. Are you getting more range/reach out of Thames? If so is that worth giving up speed in LF?
Dre
Thames wouldn’t be playing everyday. It’s a platoon (not necessarily strict) with Larish. Depending on how things panned out, either one could end up traded by the July deadline.
My plan forced me to confront certain conflicts in my “I wish they would…” universe. I’d rather keep Thames, unless trading him in the offseason was a necessary part of landing some real heavyweight (quality, not mass) pitching. Larish showed some promise, and he’s both young and a real 1B. So why block him with Cabrera?
Speaking of Miguel, I’m only about 11 months slow on realizing LF might’ve been the place to put him in the first place. He’s not terrible at 1B, except when he is. I can’t honestly say whether Thames is any better, even with more practice. But Thames is Larish-failure insurance. Plus, he’s just one of my favorite Tigers, an exciting player. Hard to confront having to let him go or having him languish on the bench for long periods.
“If so is that worth giving up speed in LF?”
You mean the speed of Joyce or Thomas (even Raburn)? Well, speed would be nice. I guess the answer is that I’d view Cabrera’s shortcomings in LF about the same way I view the shortcomings at 1B. I wouldn’t put him in LF because of how he is at 1B.
Loon-
Believe it or not, I meant giving up speed vs. Thames…but of course, speed is relative. On Cabrera playing 1B, I’ll admit that I didn’t see as many games as I thought (my viewship dropped as the playoff chances went to 1% on ESPN…for shame), but again I liked what I saw of him there. Was he that bad?
Come on man….Cabrera wasn’t mobile enough to play 3B, you think he could play LF? He’s set at 1B for the next 6 or 7 years. Try to base some of these projections in reality!
Chris in Nash-
“set at 1B for the next 6 or 7 years”
now who needs a reality check? haven’t you heard, Cabrera’s only got 2 more years tops in the league
Cabrera was one of the worst LF in baseball when he played there for the Marlins.
We seemed to be heavily stocked with potential Starting pitchers. I’d like to see Bonderman try closing for awhile until we have someone more reliable.
Are starting staff-
Verlandar
Galarraga
Minor
Willis
Garcia (if we resign him)
Cheif Monday wrote:
Cabrera was one of the worst LF in baseball when he played there for the Marlins.
Hold on now, he may not have been the cat’s pajamas, but he looked like a gold glover compared to the Adam Dunn experience.
Fwiw, when I saw him play in Florida, he didn’t look horrible, at least in the games I saw, but he’s gained a ton of weight since then and I don’t think putting him in LF is something the Tiger brass would even consider at this point.
Chris –
Cabrera was average (if not a little better) at 1B.
Also, he wasn’t anywhere near one of the worst LF in baseball for the 2005 Marlins. He had an inordinate number of errors for the position (5), but that was more than compensated for by his 12 assists (waaaaay above average for LF).
(cont) At LF, he was roughly comparable to, say, Fred Lewis this year, and probably a bit better than Delmon Young. If you really want to see some bad play at LF, watch Dunn or Quentin sometime.
Dave BW-
“watch Dunn or Quentin sometime”
eeesh, i’ll only talk about Quentin (i haven’t seen any of Dunn’s fielding). the only times i’ve ever noticed Quentin doing anything of note in the field, good or bad, would be the two times i’ve seen him throw out guys at 1B which would indicate him being an above average LF. now the stats have him as average in both ZR and RF, along with a somewhat high number of errors (7)…but the guy has an arm and even without his batting, i’d have no problems putting him in LF.
also, i hate making cases for W Sox players, but considering this is his first season as a starter, expect his errors to go down, leaving you with a guy that can get to an average amount of balls and throw guys out who aren’t careful (i’m looking at you Renteria trotting back to 1B).
greg-
cat’s pajamas?
possible mash-up of “cat’s meow” and an unknown (to me) pajama-phrase?
edit: correction -> http://www.urbandictionary.com.....ts+pajamas
Chief - I know that you are all sunshine-and-rainbows. And that’s cool. Somebody here’s gotta be. But you can’t seriously consider Dontrelle as a potential starter next year, can you? At this point, I can’t even see him in the rotation at Erie.
Dave BW-
I’m not trying to say that Cabrera is going to be confused with Mark Grace at 1B, but that is by far and away his best position. He’s just too immobile to play anywhere else.
The cat’s pajamas is kind of like the bee’s knees right?
Oh, I agree, Chris. I was more directing my post toward those who (in my opinion) unfairly malign Cabrera’s defense
Dre –
Yeah, our means of judging fielders is still depressingly anecdotal. It’s possible my negative view of Quentin’s fielding stems from the fact that I used to follow him when he was an RF in Arizona.
Ryan- Being that Willis is only 26 years old, I don’t see any reason why he shouldn’t be fixed in 5 or 6 months.
How hard is it to throw a baseball? Willis has the ability. He has the athleticism. He has a track record of 4 good seasons. He just has to go out there and do it and put all the nonsense aside. Once he gets locked in to a good approach, he should be a decent pitcher again.
Says who? You? I’m not hearing anyone with any credibility that is saying the Dontrelle is going to be “decent” again. It’s probably a crazy idea to be counting on him for next year, or ever.
Mith: Crazy?
Maybe you didn’t notice, but Willis did have a few starts at the end of the season. In his last start he went 5.1 innings, gave up 4 hits and 3 runs. That’s exactly what “decent” is.
Why don’t you just go by that instead of what anyone thinks.
Oh hey now, don’t forget the walks. It’s like you’re saying Carlos Silva is a fine pitcher based on his SO/BB ratio and BB/9 rate, while totally ignoring the worst part of his game (100 hits per game).
It’s like I’m saying what?
I guess we all are having a huge misunderstanding.
decent= serviceable. That’s all it means. It doesn’t mean he’s going to be the next Cliff Lee or Ryan Dempster. It just means that he can take the ball every 5th game and pitch 5 or 6 innings without crapping himself every time out.
I’d never say that Silva was a fine pitcher either. He was a serviceable pitcher in 2007 and a few other seasons before that, but last year he stunk.
I repeat,
Cabrera was one of the worst LF in baseball.
The Fielding Bible has him ranked at bottom. He was ranked 28th out 30. Only 2 players were worse than him and one of them was Adam Dunn. Told you so.
http://www.billjamesonline.net.....lders2.gif
That assumes we all accept the Fielding Bible as the final authority. Good book, actually own it. A useful tool for the many instances I’m not able to observe a large sample of games. But data, such as the Cabrera position, may just illustrate they still have some work to do, and just proves once again, to me, that it’s a mistake to assume your tools are smarter than you are.
In fact, that Cabrera is ranked remotely close to Dunn goes to show just how much work still is needed.
I hope Willis surprises and becomes a serviceable Major League pitcher next year. It just seems unlikely to me. Right now, he’s a complete mess. I think he might be hiding some sort of injury. Either that, or people have messed with his delivery so much that can’t repeat it, fouling up his release point, and thus long spurts in which he can’t throw it near the plate to save his life. Anyone notice his leg kick varies significantly from pitch to pitch?
I’d probably assume that you get nothing from Willis, and then consider it a pleasant surprise if he puts it together again.
I remain unconvinced regarding the efficacy of fielding stats, Chief. The fact that they are so volatile from year to year shows that they are not yet an effective determinant of skill.
Is there a particular reason why you’re phrasing your posts in an unnecessarily confrontational manner and thus turning off anyone (myself, for instance) who had a neutral opinion of you?
Good news, sports fans. The Tigers were not the worst team in the AL in terms of $ spent per win. that honor goes to the Yankees at over $2 mil per win. The Mariners were second-to-last at $1.9 mil per victory, with the Tigers third at $1.8 mil. Kudos to a well run organization.
Dave,
my evaluation of Quentin in LF is the epitome of anecdotal, so i wouldn’t weigh it as better than yours, if anything i was pleasantly surprised to see just how (rightfully) subjective some of the things we assume are.
Chief,
keep in mind that Cabrera @ LF is an idea that only really works in Loon’s proposed parallel universe featuring, in order of believability: 1) Loon as acting Tiger’s GM, 2) Guillen being traded and 3) Sheffield gone.
if nothing else, it would probably be a safe bet to assume that, regardless of his past valuation, Cabrera is a worse fielder in LF that he was in Florida, where/when he didn’t have the extra pounds.
Loon,
i understand wanting to keep Thames in the line up (although i’m closer to the opinion that he just can’t maintain form on a full-time basis), but going the extra step and swapping Thames and Cabrera’s ‘08 positions seems to be for the sake of platooning Larish…at the expense of either Thomas or Rayburn.
also, i would love to have something like ESPN-Alternate Reality. this would be a channel where you could see how sports would play out if we as fans ran things…it would be great to watch the ‘09 Tigers after GM Loon makes his changes.
also, i would love to have something like ESPN-Alternate Reality. this would be a channel where you could see how sports would play out if we as fans ran things…it would be great to watch the ‘09 Tigers after GM Loon makes his changes.
This is perhaps the greatest idea that I’ve seen posted on this site. We need to make this happen.
“Come on man….Cabrera wasn’t mobile enough to play 3B, you think he could play LF? He’s set at 1B for the next 6 or 7 years. Try to base some of these projections in reality!”
Be nice, Chris in Nashville. For one thing, the “Loon plan” was not a projection. Think of it as “what Loon might do unless you guys convinced him otherwise.” Another way to look at it is this: I thought about the whole team, how it could be made better within reason and within a budget, and considered the consequences of making this or that move in the context of the whole team. It’s an exercise I recommend. It puts you in the position of having to make tough choices you might not have seen coming, sort of like a real owner or GM or manager.
For another, Cabrera: a) has played LF, b) was undoubtedly considered for LF at least briefly after he was acquired, and c) is capable of losing weight and gaining mobility. If you want a young guy prone to weight gain to stay young and athletic, 1B (as a new position) is the last place you want him.
Also, though I could easily be wrong here, I think mobility was the least of Cabrera’s problems at 3B. Lack of focus and bad hands had more to do with it, perhaps. Guillen wasn’t the mobility king, either, but he had the hands and certainly the mental focus.
“This is perhaps the greatest idea that I’ve seen posted on this site. We need to make this happen.”
Yeah. I like it, too, and not because it mentions me in passing. Good one, Dre.
“Is there a particular reason why you’re phrasing your posts in an unnecessarily confrontational manner and thus turning off anyone (myself, for instance) who had a neutral opinion of you?”
I think it’s just a matter of personal style, Dave, though I know what you mean.
Dre, you nailed a lot in your 11:32 AM post. It’s good to see that someone gets it, that the Loon plan was arrived at through reasoning, even if it’s faulty reasoning. It’s not a wish list (well, OK, in part it is, I suppose) or a projection. It’s not even done, really. The Tigers are going to mess it up eventually by making some sort of unLoonauthorized moves - I’m sure of it.
Yes, the whole Cabrera to LF and Thames to IB has everything to do with Sheffield and Guillen and Larish. If the answer is “yes” to
Sheffield must go
Guillen should not be in LF
Larish has potential as a 1B
Thames should be retained
Cabrera is too young to relegate to the DH role
then what I “propose” is the only decent solution I found. But maybe I missed something (assume for the sake of argument that the above 5 statements are “true” and then try to solve the problem yourself, anyone).
By the way, the cat’s pajamas is indeed - in my opinion - a well-established phrase along the lines of the bee’s knees. What a challenge it would be to explain such odd phrases in our language to a foreign speaker, or to grasp and correctly use their odd phrases. Eh?
cat’s meow I am familiar with. cat’s pajamas is a new one to me.
bee’s knees is a good one too, I have heard that before also. I found this in wikipedia:
“elephant’s instep”? Now it’s just weird. They also forgot “mutt’s nuts”
“at the expense of either Thomas or Rayburn”
Thomas won’t be available until midseason. Without Cabrera in LF (and with or without Guillen there, because Guillen is prone to injury), Clete could be the starting LF by sometime in the middle of next season, or platooning with Thames or splitting time with Joyce. With Cabrera in LF, he’s blocked, and becomes a good 4th outfielder, or possibly beats out Joyce for RF (he has played RF, right?), or becomes young talent to trade. Or maybe his injury will end up changing his future altogether.
Raburn’s strength is his versatility. The only way I see him in line for a starting job anywhere is if either Thames or Polanco or Inge are traded. Short-term, Raburn in LF or at 2B or 3B looks less attractive to me than the other guys (and add Thomas to the list for LF). Maybe it would pan out long-term, who knows. But right now his glove isn’t that good (except maybe in LF?), and he certainly isn’t pushing anyone with the bat.
I’m not sure if bees have knees, though I’m pretty sure they have legs with bending points. Obviously they don’t have bones and perhaps cannot then have joints.
Cats can have pajamas. I don’t any who do, though. Do your cats have pajamas, Ron?
The eel’s ankle and the snake’s hip make sense precisely because they don’t exist. That’s the point. What would be stupid in this case would be sensible things like “the car’s tire” or “the chair’s leg.”
I am fascinated now with the question of whether elephants have insteps. I need to know whether it would insult an elephant to be called flat-footed. Hey - I’m no elephant-insulter.
Mutt’s nuts? It rhymes, but…?
We need Tigers phrases. He’s just the Renteria’s range! She’s just the Inge’s swing! That’s just the Willis’s control! Your new car is just the Sheffield’s team spirit!
Snorg Girl is missing and presumed dead. *A tear.*
My cat has four white socks, each one a different length. Now that I look at her, it does appear she is wearing a pair of black pajamas. If they would have kept that black cat around, things would have turned out much better this season. Tigers/ Cats is a no brainer. If it were the Orioles, Cardinals, Blue Jays, yeh, the cats gotta go. I mean, how much space would that black cutie have taken up sitting on the bench?
I know this is totally off the subject of bees with knees and cats in pajamas, but is there any chance that the first round pick from this year gets a shot at winning a spot in the bullpen during spring training? I am guessing there isnt but maybe he is amazing in spring training who knows. And if defense is the main concern at SS why not try Inge there and keep Guillen at 3rd? That way we arent giving up all the offense from that side of the infield. As far as Cabrera moving from first base it wont happen as long as Leyland is manager, because Jim has said many times he sees Cabrera as capable of winning Gold Gloves at 1st
Oh, by the way, the Mets have taken all the feral cats that lived in Shea Stadium and put them in their new stadium.
Smooking Loon - your 12:50 post is friggin’ hilarious
“For another, Cabrera: a) has played LF, b) was undoubtedly considered for LF at least briefly after he was acquired, and c) is capable of losing weight and gaining mobility. If you want a young guy prone to weight gain to stay young and athletic, 1B (as a new position) is the last place you want him.”
Loon,
all true, and i especially like “