Tag Archives: miguel cabrera

Some thoughts on the Ordonez situation

The news of Magglio Ordonez’s prolonged absence is certainly devastating on a number of fronts and only compounded by the loss of Carlos Guillen. Already without Brandon Inge for at least a month the Tigers lost a third of their starting lineup in the last week. It changes the outlook for the trade deadline, and may very well change the look of the 2011 team. It also likely puts a significant dent in Miguel Cabrera’s chances for a triple crown.

Ordonez and Guillen will be replaced on the roster with Wil Rhymes and Jeff Larish while Don Kelly, Ryan Raburn, and Ramon Santiago see increased roles. The lineup is more Toledo than Detroit at this point which is tough on a team that already has heavily reliant on rookies. There is only so much depth.

Buyer of Sellers

The Tigers had some holes to fill, be it starting pitching, a lefty reliever, and a little more consistency and offensive pop at both shortstop and catcher. Filling 1-2 of those holes would likely have kept the Tigers in the race deep into September without dramatically impacting the future fortunes of the team.

However the Tigers holes have doubled, and in a hard to replace way. I still think Scott Sizemore can hit at the big league level and he could slide into Guillen’s spot. The loss of Ordonez though is just too much for this team to overcome given the question marks at other positions. With playoff odds that were essentially split with 3 teams already, the Tigers chances of the postseason just got much longer and it may make sense for the Tigers to flip the switch from buyers to sellers.

The Option

One of the biggest stories last year was whether or not the Tigers should cut Ordonez to avoid his option vesting. They didn’t and the reaped the benefits of his performance this year (and the burden of his paycheck). There is a $15 million option for next season that now will not automatically vest. The Tigers may have $15 million additional to spend next year, or they may pick it up (which would be an overpayment), or perhaps decline the option and sign Ordonez to a more reasonable 2 year deal.

The business move is of course to decline the option. We’ll see if Mike Ilitch feels the same way though, especially given the fact that Ordonez broke the ankle hustling on a play in a game in which maybe he shouldn’t have even been playing.

The decision to send him home

I don’t think you can blame Gene Lamont for sending Ordonez home. It was just a bad situation. I’m not even sure that he broke it on the slide. Given the way he was running I don’t know that he would have been able to put on the brakes at third base anyways without damaging the ankle. It was unfortunate, but not a bad decision.

Cabrera and the triple crown

One of several real bright spots this season was Miguel Cabrera’s pursuit of the Triple Crown. The odds were long on this one as well just because of the shear difficulty of the feat. Ordonez and his .378 OBP will no longer be in front of Cabrera meaning fewer opportunities for RBI and more opportunities for teams to pitch around Cabrera.

They’re coming home

It looked like a laugher, but then the jokes stopped getting funny, then the Miguel Cabrera had the last laugh. It’s games like this where I like to let Fangraphs tell the story.

Jeremy Bonderman looked great in the early going. He only needed 38 pitches to get through 4 innings. He pitched his way out of a rocky 5th with minimal damage, so it was quite the surprise to see him unable to finish the 6th and spare the bullpen.

And that bullpen which has been quite good and quite heavily used was vulnerable. Joel Zumaya finished off the 6th inning, but got knocked around for the first time this year. Phil Coke came on and got the first out before Vladimir Guerrero tied things up.

The offense scored early and late. Brandon Inge broke his home run drought in a big way. After sending a ball to the warning track he got angry and went homer-double-homer for a monster night. Ryan Raburn narrowly missed a grand slam and added another double.

But the biggest blast once again came from the biggest hitter. The Rangers inexplicably threw Miguel Cabrera a pitch over the plate in the 9th inning and he put it over the wall to give the Tigers a win that Jose Valverde saved easily.

A 5-6 road trip isn’t great, but it is certainly acceptable. And we get back to 7p start times, and the Minnesota Twins.

That’s using all your outs

The Tigers performance with runners in scoring position of late has caused much consternation and understandably so. Sometime the failures have just been failures, but during this recent stretch a significant portion was just bad luck. It’s only fitting then that Ramon Santiago plated the go-ahead run with an “excuse-me” flop shot to left.

Brian Fuentes and the Angels were 1 strike away from escaping the 9th inning with the game tied when Santiago reached down and somehow lifted the ball into shallow left field. A good jump and secondary lead by Gerald Laird let him reach home just before the tag.

Continue reading That’s using all your outs

Venezuelan Uprising

The Tigers offense certainly doesn’t figure to be the team’s strength in 2010.  It also isn’t devoid of talent. The heart of the order is occupied by the team’s Venezuelan contingent. The trio certainly put on an offensive display in the series against the Royals and the health and production of these three are fundamental to the team’s chances this season.

Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, and Carlos Guillen led the offensive against the Royals. The three combined to go 20-42 and accounted for all 3 of the team’s homers. Two of those homers were by Cabrera in the late innings. The Tigers scored 16 runs and these 3 drove in 10 of them and scored 8 of them. With the exception of Austin Jackson’s and Johnny Damon’s 2 RBI’s, every other run went through Venezuela.

The Tigers shouldn’t expect these 3 to combine to hit nearly .500 all the time, but when the 3 are clicking they should be able to muster enough runs to support what should be at least a decent pitching staff.

Why moving Cabrera could make it harder to keep Verlander

The good news for Tigers fans is that according to Jon Paul Morosi a couple of sources say it is unlikely that the Tigers trade Miguel Cabrera this week. Salary relief would of course be nice, but Morosi raises another good point. Trading away a team’s best player likely sends the wrong message to the player you’d like to keep around.

Verlander, who is on the verge of receiving a big raise in salary arbitration, is on track to become a free agent after the 2011 season. If the Tigers trade prominent players such as Granderson and Jackson, they may have a difficult time convincing Verlander to remain in Detroit for the long term.

It’s quite the conundrum for the Tigers. The cash saved by in the future by moving Miguel Cabrera or Curtis Granderson would certainly help with the flexibility to sign Justin Verlander but it would also make the climate less attractive. Verlander will get his money regardless so he’ll be able to look for a favorable situation.

As for what it will take to sign Verlander, we can start by looking at some rumors swirling around Felix Hernandez who like Verlander is 2 years removed from free agency. Ken Rosenthal reports that the two sides are far apart on a long term deal where the starting point was a 4 year $45 million offer.

Hernandez should command more because as good as Verlander has been, King Felix has been better and is 3 years younger. Still, it would take probably $20 million to buy out Verlander’s 2 arbitration years and then $15-18 million per year after that at least.

Cabrera, Verlander, Porcello win 2009 DIBS Honors

Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera and starting pitcher Justin Verlander were voted the Tigers’ top positional player and top pitcher of 2009, in a vote conducted by the Detroit Independent Baseball Scribes.

Cabrera and Verlander each received 20 first-place votes. Cabrera had a .942 on-base percentage plus slugging average (OPS), which was good for fifth in the American League. He had a .324 batting average, 34 home runs and 103 RBIs. All four categories led the Tigers. His Ultimate Zone Rating of 2.8 ranked second of all AL first basemen.

Continue reading Cabrera, Verlander, Porcello win 2009 DIBS Honors

The Dombrowski Presser

Dave Dombrowski met with the press today and fielded questions for about an hour. Jaosn Beck, Tom Gage, and John Lowe had it covered. There is enough there to warrant about 6 posts worth of further explanation. But until that happens…

Miguel Cabrera

Dombrowski had a range of emotions about the situation, many were negative, but it wasn’t the first time he’s been in this situation in his 20 years as GM. It’s not surprising that he believes Cabrera will take the necessary steps. As for the question on whether he should have played Saturday night, that gets a little more gray. The response was:

“First of all, you have some legalities that are involved. You probably should know the rules when it comes to the Basic Agreement (the collective-bargaining agreement between the clubs and the players union).

“Secondly, we thought he was capable of going out there and playing.”

I admit to knowing nothing about the rules involved when a player has been drinking and is scheduled to play. I will say the answer was somewhat evasive in that they “thought” he was capable of playing. There was no comment on whether they thought they made the right decision.
Continue reading The Dombrowski Presser

Miguel Cabrera screwed up

Miguel Cabrera had a pretty crappy Friday night, and it just isn’t ending – nor should it. Cabrera screwed up big time and is deserving of the bulk of the criticism that he is receiving today. Whether it was a lapse of judgment or a habitual problem remains to be seen but getting drunk enough to blow a .26 at 6 a.m. on the morning of one of the biggest games in his Tigers career is a huge problem. The problem has since been compounded by errors in judgment by Jim Leyland and Dave Dombrowski.

Continue reading Miguel Cabrera screwed up

Miguel Cabrera and speculation

Probably not the dog that mauled Miguel Cabrera
Probably not the dog that mauled Miguel Cabrera

Miguel Cabrera had an awful night at the plate on Friday. Miguel Cabrera had an awful night at the plate on Saturday. The difference between the two nights is that his face was cut and bruised on Saturday. This was quite noticeable to the media before the game and it elicited questions from Jon Paul Morosi and other media. The answer that Morosi got was that Cabrera’s dog was the culprit. It is a story that is hard to believe which has just led to more speculation.

The speculation will continue until actual information comes out. Dave Dombrowski acknowledged speaking to Cabrera about the situation but wouldn’t delve into it. Jim Leyland said he hadn’t noticed. Continue reading Miguel Cabrera and speculation

Is Miguel Cabrera injured?

Something is amiss with Miguel Cabrera’s left wrist. He hasn’t swung the bat well this week, and there may be a injury related explanation. After a poor at-bat Fox Sports Detroit camera’s zoomed into the dugout and saw Cabrera inspecting and massaging the wrist after removing the tape. He ended up with another at-bat in the game that saw Kevin Rand come out and visit. The at-bat culminated when Cabrera grounded out to short (it was a nifty play by Tony Pena Jr.) and it appeared the didn’t follow through in the way he typically does. Jeff Larish came into the blow-out to play defense in the 9th.

An injured Cabrera would be a tremendous hole in the middle of the lineup. He played through a hamstring injury the early part of last year, but it seems that if he is hurting it would be prudent to give him a couple days to rest up.

About that Cabrera “rumor”

I‘m stunned by how much attention this has gotten, but there has been speculation on ESPN that the Tigers will have to look to trade Miguel Cabrera. It started with speculation mentioned by someone on ESPN (I’ve heard it attributed to Gammons/Olney/Kurkjian but I don’t know who actually said it) that if the Tigers are out of contention economic forces would make it necessary to trade Cabrera. Boston was the destination that had been mentioned. Somehow this speculation turned into a rumor. Well, now Dombrowski has come out and said what most in Detroit had been thinking, that the rumors are absurd.

First of all, the Tigers are contending at the moment. And all the experts agree that the Central is going to be a tight division. So even knowing very little there is a good chance that every team in the Central will be contending.

Second, Cabrera isn’t just another superstar. He’s a cornerstone type player who is on a Hall of Fame career trajectory and just entering his prime years. Mike Ilitch and the Tigers can afford to pay him or they wouldn’t have inked him to the contract in the first place.

Third, and I may be reading something into this that isn’t really there, but just because Boston or New York want a player doesn’t mean they will get them.
 
Beck’s Blog: Dombrowski: Cabrera rumors “absurd”

2008 Offseason Preamble

With a disastrous season completed it is time to head into the offseason. Given the gravity of the collapse, you know with the high payroll and the last place-edness, there is probably a tendency to overreact and second-guess. While a deep dive analysis is definitely called for, there is also some inaccuracy being bandied about. With that in mind, some thoughts as we head into what will likely be a tumultuous winter.

Dave Dombrowski did not abandon his philosophy

I’ve heard this one frequently. The common thread is that Dombrowski abandoned his pitching first philosophy in favor of “buiding a slow pitch softball team.” Dombrowski has always believed in stock piling young pitching and using it as the building blocks of a team. Whether that entails using the pitchers on his own team, or trading it to fill needs, he’s always used young pitching.

The Renteria trade was made in large part for defense, not to build a slow pitch slugging softball team. The benefit of Renteria was that he was to be a 2 way player. The problem was that while Renteria was a defensive upgrade, it was a small upgrade (Guillen was -12 in 1074 innings at short in ’07, Renteria was -9 in 1173 innings in ’08 according to Fielding Bible +/-) and his offense was beyond absent the first half of the season. The trade failed, there’s no question, but it wasn’t a change of philosophy.

As for Cabrera, defense was never a part of the issue. It was entirely an offensive move. But it was also an opportunity that doesn’t come along that often. Players like Cabrera don’t grow on trees and to add an elite player at age 25 is largely unheard of. It is the kind of big splash move that Dombrowski has been known for throughout his career.

As for the rest of the staff, they were far worse than could have reasonably been expected. While Willis struggled last year and was trending down, to get nothing from him was unexpected to everyone. Robertson was never a top of the rotation starter, but was the epitome of a solid back of the rotation guy. To compete, along with Kenny Rogers, for worst starter in the league wasn’t part of any reasonable plan. And then there was Verlander adding a run and a half to his ERA. That your entire starting rotation would be injured or significantly underperforming wasn’t part of any plan or strategy and more than could have been mitigated.

The window isn’t closed

I should adjust that and say “the window isn’t closed if Ilitch doesn’t want it to be.” The boss could go all Huizenga and say “cut-cut-cut” but I don’t see that happening. This team was positioned to go for it in both 2008 and 2009. Because 08 was crap doesn’t mean you need to abandon 09 as well. The offense should be good again next year, and it isn’t unreasonable to think that the pitching staff will see some return to non-crapitude next year.

In terms of trading, they’d be selling low on most of the players that fans want to see traded. They could probably get a nice return for Armando Galarraga, Curtis Granderson, and Miguel Cabrera, but who really wants to see them shopped?

Don’t overreact

Everybody wants speed, defense, and starters, and bullpen arms. Some better defense would be nice, but don’t sacrifice offense completely. The Tigers are ready to make that move at third with the Inge pronouncement. It means they can’t afford to do it at both catcher and shortstop.

The bullpen was awful, but 5 years and $75 million to fix it will be money poorly spent. As for starters, is it worth a second round draft pick to sign a Derek Lowe type starter? (it might be if the Tigers can get the draft pick compensation for Renteria)

I’m not saying do nothing. Clearly this team has holes at multiple positions and another starter and a 2-3 new bullpen arms are clearly needed. But I still think, and perhaps this is naive, but good teams can have bad seasons. This team wasn’t as good as we thought going in, and it isn’t as bad as we think right now. I’ll borrow this conclusion from Nate Silver’s piece in Baseball Prospectus ($) and quote sparingly because it is premium content.

Bad years happen to good clubs. The key for the Tigers will simply be not to panic, nor to try and save face with guys like Renteria and Willis whose projections don’t really warrant it. The Tigers need to budget somewhere between $15-$20 million for perhaps three pitchers next year, but with the contracts of Renteria, Todd Jones, Kenny Rogers, and Ivan Rodriguez all coming off the books, they can easily afford to do so without increasing payroll.

This has been a frustrating season in Detroit, but hardly a disastrous one in terms of the club’s long-term fortunes. There have been several pleasant surprises this year in Galarraga, Joyce, and Brandon Inge’s smooth transition back to the catcher position*. From top to bottom, the Tigers still rank somewhere in the top ten in the major leagues in terms of their overall talent pool, and they should be on track to return to contention with some relatively common-sense fixes.

*The Inge part was written on August 14th before Inge completely collapsed down the stretch offensively and started allowing a PB per game.