35-37, 3rd place, 3 games behind CWS.

I realize that runs were a luxury over the weekend, but the Pirates are now 23-13 at home with a 2.28 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, all of which are best in the bigs.

Quentin Berry’s 2 run home run yesterday was just the 22nd Tigers home run with runners on base this season, which is 13th in the AL. Only the Royals have hit less HR with runners on base this season. Let’s take a closer look at the solo HR phenomenon.

The Tigers have now hit 44 solo home runs this year out of 66 total. Yes, the 67% solo HR ratio is worst in the AL, but the average solo HR % in the AL this year is 59%, and the Yankees, Blue Jays, Angels and Rays all have solo HR percentages at 60% or greater. So we’re not too far from the mean. FYI – the average AL team HR so far is 77, with a median of 71. So we’re 11 home runs off of the average pace, or about one every 6-7 games. Since 59% of those would be solos, it’s really not that many runs.

In conclusion, solo HRs are not the problem.

Our BA with runners on is .277, which is 3rd in the AL, but our slugging with runners on dips to .406, 7th in the AL. And slugging overall is .408, 7th in the Al. This looks be be a much bigger problem – we hit for average, but we don’t hit for any power. Why not? Let’s look at the lineup:

1. Jackson is slugging over 100 points higher than his career average. He’s not the problem.

2. Berry is slugging .423, which is almost 100 points higher than his MiLB average. I don’t think he can keep this up.

3. Cabrera is down slightly (.524 from .554). Not a big deal, though his walks are way down (understandably considering Fielder), but he’s not taking advantage of the increases ABs. That’s a tiny contribution to the problem.

4.  Fielder is down to .493 from .536. This is a problem. Some of this may be park effects, we’ll have to take a deeper look soon.

5. Delmon is down to .384 from .424. This is a problem.

6. Peralta is down to .394 from .426. This is a problem.

7. Boesch is down to .360 from .419. This is a problem.

8. Avila is down to .396 from .444. This is a problem.

9. Santiago is down to .318 from .341. This is funny.

Rayburn is down to .245 from .436. Did you know that RR has more walks (9) than RBIs (8) or runs (8). He also has more Ks (42) than TB (35).

Every hitter from 3-9 is down this year in terms of power, and most of them by a substantial amount. I expect the Tigers to be very active in the Quentin/Thome market.

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The Tigers begin a 67 game swing through Texas (3) and Tampa Bay (4), against two clubs who are a combined 15 games over .500 at home. The Rangers are 8-2 in their last 10 and have the league’s best record at 45-28; 17 games over .500. The slated Rangers pitchers are Grimm (a rookie), Darvish and Oswalt, the recent signing who looked spectacular in his first game back this season. The Tigers are countering with Porcello/TBDSmyly/TBDFister. This could be a long series. I’m worried about Porcello, nervous about Smyly, and cautiously optimistic about Fister.

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A few notes:

– Tigers are looking at Matt Garza (see ya Porcello?) and Jed Lowrie (to play 2B)
– The MLive Detroit Tigers iPhone app is worth a download (it’s free)

Tonight’s Lineup will be Posted Later:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Boesch, LF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Laird, C
9. Santiago, 2B

Detroit Tigers, 34-37, 3 1/2 games behind Cleveland.

The Tigers couldn’t touch Cy Lincoln, McCutchen got an 0-2 fastball he liked very much, and that was that, a quick tidy victory for the Pirates.

Well, the Tigers got the obligatory solo home run, and have still not been shut out this season.  So there’s that.

Also Delmon Young got a walk, for those of you have have been holding your breath since his last one (May 22).

At any rate, the Pirates have the brooms out, ready to sweep Detroit out toward Arlington with their Tiger tails between their legs.

First they will have to deal with Justin Verlander.

The last time Verlander faced Pittsburgh, he threw a memorable one-hitter.  This time he also gets to bat, looking to break a career 0-for-22 slump.

Stat of the Day: Prince Fielder has 11 home runs; 10 of them are solo home runs. He has 1 HR in 146 plate appearances with a man on base.  His career average is 1 HR for every 23 PA with men on.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Ryan Raburn.  With the middle of the lineup slumping horribly, Raburn gets a key hit off of Cy Young candidate Kevin Correia and the surprise POPG nod.

Today’s Burnberry Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Quintin Berry RF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young LF
6. Alex Avila C
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Ryan Raburn 2B
9. Justin Verlander P

Detroit Tigers, 34-36, 3 1/2 games behind Cleveland.

The last game had a little of everything–Pitcher Fielding Follies, Clownman antics in left, strange double-shifting–and a lot of nothing.

Friday night the Tigers continued to help Pittsburgh gain ground in the NL Central, this time by losing to the Pirates 4-1.  The Pirates tried to be sporting about it by sending Jason Grilli and his weak s*** out in the 8th inning to face the heart of the Tiger order, but nothing doing (yes, I realize Grilli is having a good season).

In fact there was a hole in the heart of the order all night:  the Cabrera-Fielder combo was 0-4 with RISP, and had an overall OPS of .000. Over the last 3 games the duo is a combined 2-for-24, and, significantly, 0 walks.

Today that may change against Pirate starter Brad Lincoln, who is has a 10.83 ERA in 3 starts since entering the starting rotation, and has yet to make it through 5 innings.

The offensive support would be helpful: Max Scherzer understandably may not be on the top of his game today. Scherzer is rejoining the team after two days away. There is speculation as to the reasons for the absence, but the official word is just that he was off for “personal reasons.”

Stat of the Day: Over the past 14 days Miguel Cabrera has put up this Inge-like line: .227 BA, .320 OBP, .354 SLG, .684 OPS. Fielder has hit .237 during that time.  I blame the All-Star Campaign Jinx.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Max Scherzer, you are our player of the game today, no matter how your outing turns out.

Today’s Underwhelming Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Brennan Boesch RF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young LF
6. Alex Avila C
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Ramon Santiago 2B
9. Max Scherzer P

Detroit Tigers, 34-35, 2 1/2 games behind Cleveland, Consecutive Interleague Series Won: 4.

You’re welcome Pirates fans, you’re welcome.

The Tigers head into Pittsburgh to close out an interleague swing that has seem them take series against the Pirates’ division rival Reds and Cardinals. The surprising Pirates are now just 2 games behind Central leading Cincinnati.

The Pirates open the series with the hot hand of A.J. Burnett, who has won 6 consecutive starts, beginning with a 5/19 victory over the Tigers in Detroit.

Doug Fister looks to continue his strong comeback and put Detroit back to the .500 mark. Following his thrilling 10th-inning walk off single, Quintin Berry gets the start in RF in place of the struggling Brennan Boesch. Boesch is 3-7 lifetime against Burnett, but playing Boesch would mean either sitting the Q-Berry, or sitting Young, and apparently we can’t spare his .615 OPS against RHP.  Or maybe it’s his glove we can’t spare, I forget.

In other news, Wednesday may have seen Jake Westbrook stymie the Tiger offense, but it was a day to celebrate for Ryan Raburn.  On Wednesday Raburn reached his 5-year service time milestone, which means that even though the Tigers still have one more option to send Raburn to Toledo, Raburn can decline to report, which would force the Tigers to either keep him on the roster or release him (and still be on the hook for his salary).

Stat of the Day: Prince Fielder leads all active players with 28 home runs against the Pirates, including 9 at PNC Park.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Prince Fielder.  See above.  And the last time Fielder faced Burnett he hit a 2-run HR–his only non-solo HR of the season.

Today’s Young Jacksonberry Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Quintin Berry RF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young LF
6. Alex Avila C
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Ramon Santiago 2B
9. Doug Fister P

33-35, 3rd place, 3 games behind Cle.

The Jacob Turner Experience 2012 kicks off this afternoon. Smyly has been pitching well and looks to be ready for his next start, so this is likely just a spot start (or could it be an audition?). Though Turner had a great ERA at Lakeland (1.66) and a good one in Toledo (3.43), his lack of strikeouts (44 in 63 2/3) and high walk rate (4.07 at Toledo) are cause for concern. The Cardinals are one of the most free-swinging teams in the league (they swing at more first pitches than the Tigers), so that should help. But we should have a pretty well rested pen (other than Valverde – who is not available) should Turner get into any trouble. Turner has been awful at Comerica in his young career, posting an 8.53 ERA over three starts.

The Tigers need to win today to increase their series streak to 4.

A few notes:

– Avila up, Holaday down.
– Putkonen down with Turner’s call-up.
– Smyly is slated to throw three innings tonight in Toledo.
– No word on Laird’s hamstring, yet.
– Cabrera is 4-10 lifetime off of Lohse with 2 HR.

Today’s Could Berry Be the Everyday Left Fielder? Lineup is:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Boesch, DH
6. Raburn, 2B
7. Avila, C
8. Santiago, 2B
9. Kelly, RF

33-34, 3rd place, 2 games behind Cle (Jake Peavy says watch-out to his CWS teammates)

Justin Verlander was fantastic yesterday. Even though he walked more than he struck out for the first time since June of 2010, Verlander allowed 1 ER on 5 hits over 7 innings. There was that tense moment in the 7th when Berry’s two base error plated two runs, and then a walk loaded the bases, but JV responded with the one of the best sliders of his career to get out of the jam. Before Saturday, the Tigers had won only two games where they led start to finish, got a quality start, and the tying run did not come to the plate in the 9th. They have now won three in a row like that.

Kevin Goldstein of ESPN wrote an article last week (you’ll need Insider) where he asked 12 ML execs who they would pick if they needed a pitcher for just one start. JV dominated the vote totals with 7 votes. The next highest was two.

Verlander was the runaway winner, but some might be surprised to see him get just more than half the votes. “He just walks to the mound like he owns it,” said an American League scouting official. “You’re talking about 95-100 mph to both sides of the plate, a hellacious curveball and a plus change.”

 A National League scout agreed, while focusing on the thought of just one game. “He’s capable of no-hitting anyone at any time, in any place,” said the talent evaluator. “Every time you see him you wonder if you’re going to see something special.”

 A National League front office member also focused on the one-game aspect but took a different angle. “Verlander has been the most consistent when it comes to maintaining plus-plus stuff deep into games, which for me is really what you ask for when looking for the best player to start one game,” the front office member said.

I love the line about “owning the mound.”

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Could there be trouble brewing in the clubhouse? Leyland came out yesterday and said that the team needs more “dirtbags”, Leyland’s affectionate term for players scrappy players. In truth, these guys usually have little major league value and Leyland uses their “dirtbag” role to justify playing them well beyond their expiration date. At the same time Leyland mentioned that his team needs to play with a “mean streak.” I don’t think he intended for them to go Laimbeer on anyone, but rather dive, slide and hustle. But Prince Fielder didn’t respond too well to the comment, saying that he doesn’t have time for that.

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The Tigers have been playing their best ball since the beginning of the season, and their playoff chances are looking better every day. That said, their schedule is only going to get tougher, as only 19 games of the remaining 96 are against teams under .500. They still have 31 games against the White Sox, Rangers, Angels, Yankees and Rays. 10 of those are against CWS and I’m guessing that Cle is going to falter, so those 10 against the White Sox could decide the division. Let’s not forget that the Tigers have only finished above .500 post All Star break once under Smokey.

Injury notes:

– Smyly is slated to throw three innings in Toledo tomorrow night.
– Valverde is going to rest his sore wrist for 3-4 games.

A few other notes:

– The Tigers have not been shutout in 135 games, the longest streak in club history.
– The Tigers have signed undrafted first baseman Andrew Allen, son of Rod Allen. I see you son.
– Keep an eye out for 21 year old reliever Bruce Rondon, as he was just promoted to Erie.
– Phil Coke drenched a few fans last night. Not everyone was pleased. Though those sitting next to Ashley may have been.

Tonight’s Series Clinching Does Smokey Know that this is the Same Lineup as Last Night Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Boesch, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Santiago, 2B
9. Laird, C

32-34, 3rd place, 2.5 games back (picked up 1.5 games since the last DTW post)

Your Detroit Tigers have scrambled to win 3 straight series (after losing the opener in each), and are 7-3 over their past 10 games. The Cinci series was a nice one as they look to be the cream of the crop in the NL Central, but the Rockies and Cubs series were sweep-able. So let’s not get too excited, but hey, you have to win series, and hopefully the boys are getting used to doing that.

The Tigers look to continue their interleague dominance (.650 since 2006, 2nd best in the majors) against our old foes the Cardinals. That’s gonna be a tough task against Cardinals phenom Lance Lynn. In his first year as a starter, Lynn is 10-2 with a 2.42 ERA and a.209 BAA. His success has been a little perplexing, as he had control issues in the minors, but his K rates have always been good. In fact – he’s averaging more than a strikeout per inning in his big league career. So maybe it’s just a matter of batters getting used to him. He’s also been the benefit of 7.27 runs per game this year, which I don’t expect to happen against JV. Lynn throws a low  to mid 90s fastball and has a cut short curve. 8 of his 22 ER allowed his year have come in the 2nd.

JV was back to his dominating self last time out (as opposed to just above average in the few starts prior) allowing only 2 ER and 5 H over 8 IPs against the Cubs last week. A win today and JV will have his 114th W as a Tigers’ starter, tying him for 14th with Virgil Trucks.

Injury Update:

– Dotel back from the DL, Weber optioned down.
– Avila went 0-2 last night, his 15 days are up on Thursday.

A few notes:

– Don’t forget to vote 25 times for your Tigers on the All Star Ballot. Fielder is in the lead at 1B, Miggy will need some help if he’s going to start at 2nd.
– Brad Eldred’s AAA power got him a ticket to Japan. Good luck Brad, fun getting to know you.
– Drew Smyly’s ebola seems to be healed.
– Berry with another start, Boesch batting 6th against the righty.

Today’s Let’s Win an Opener Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Boesch, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Santiago, 2B
9. Laird, C

Detroit Tigers, 31-34, 4 games behind Chicago.

The Tigers evened up the series with the Rockies, as Miguel Cabrera got the rare double (Home Run plus Little League Home Run), and Doug Fister came back strong with his first victory of the season. (His next start should be Friday).

The Tigers look to take their 3rd consecutive IL series in today’s Father’s Day rubber game.  And dammit they are going to get this one.

On the mound for Detroit will be the enigmatic Max Daddy, Max Scherzer, against the struggling righty Jeremy Guthrie (3-5, 6.91). The righty on the mound means we will be treated to the Jacksonberry lineup.

Colorado would just as soon see Interleague season end.  They are one 10th-inning clown show from being winless in IL this year.

Stat of the Day: Miguel Cabrera leads all active Tigers with 1 LLHR.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Quintin Berry.  Q-Berry gets a rare start, and is itching to try his hand at one of those LLHRs.

Today’s Who’s-On-Third? Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Quintin Berry LF
3. Miguel Cabrera DH
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Brennan Boesch RF
6. Jhonny Peralta SS
7. Ramon Santiago 2B
8. Don Kelly 3B
9. Gerald Laird C

Detroit Tigers, 30-34, 4 games behind Chicago (1st), 4 1/2 ahead of Twins (last).

That was an exciting game last night. I had to leave before the extra innings, but I’ve got it recorded and will watch as soon as I finish this blurb.  I can’t wait! Looks like Valverde is coming in in a non-save situation, but I’m sure it will work out fine.

This afternight (4:00 start) Doug Fister makes his 2nd comeback of the season, looking for his first win.

To make room for Fister, Casey Crosby was sent down. Or Matt Young (finally). They both went back to Toledo, and Thad Weber will be called up to shore up the thinning ranks of the bullpen.  Rumor has it that the bullpen was depleted last night (“We’ve got major problems,” Leyland said), and on top of that Fister can’t be expected to go too deep into the game in his first comeback experience.

Leyland has ruled out Villarreal, Benoit, and Valverde for today. Looks like Putty-time!

Detroit will be facing the dreaded Rookie Pitcher Guy (Christian Friedrich, 4-2, 5.85).

In other news, don’t expect Dirks or Avila back soon.  And Ryan Raburn is still right-handed.

Stat of the Day: Doug Fister has a career winning % of only .370 (20-34), despite a career ERA of only 3.47.

Tonight’s Player of the Pre-game:  Austin Jackson.  He bats right.  He hits lefties (4 HR, 11 RBI, vs Cabrera, 1 HR 6 RBI).

Tonight’s Because-There’s-A-Lefty-Pitching-That’s-Why Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Brennan Boesch RF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Jhonny Peralta SS
7. Ryan Raburn LF
8. Gerald Laird C
9. Ramon Santiago 2B

Detroit Tigers, 30-33, 4 games behind Chicago.

Ryan Raburn is an understanding guy. He really is. He says “I would’ve booed me as well.” (No word on how he would have spelled his name).

The boos are on hold for now, as Raburn scrounged up a couple of hits, and the Tigers won their 2nd consecutive Interleague series.

(Update:  Raburn will be playing LF.  Resumption-of-booing-needle swings toward Likely).

Detroit goes for three against the Colorado Rockies, once briefly home of Ol’ Smokey himself. The Rockies are 13-8 against Detroit in IL play, and have won the last two series.

The opener of the series sees Casey Crosby take his 3rd career start, and attempt to keep his ERA in single digits (9.35). Crosby will face lefty Jeff Francis, whose return to Colorado after a year sabbatical in Kansas City has been quite rocky (0-1, 21.60 ERA).  Doubtless tonight will be a pitcher’s duel.

Stat of the Day: Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are a combined 5-for-27 (.185) lifetime against Jeff Francis.

Tonight’s Player of the Pre-game:  Austin Jackson.  AJax continues to have the hot bat. In addition, Rockies star Carlos Gonzalez has 16 home runs, but 12 of them have come in the mountain air of Colorado. In Comerica he will be leaving his shots on the warning track, and Jackson is there to haul them in.

Tonight’s Ha-Ha-You-Thought-Berry-Would-Be-In-LF-With-The-Return-Of-The-DH Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Brennan Boesch RF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Jhonny Peralta SS
7. Ryan Raburn LF
8. Danny Worth 2B
9. Bryan Holaday C

29-33, 3rd place, 5 games back.

On a night when the Tigers’ big three bats were a combined 2-14 with 1 R and 0 RBI, the Tigers still plated 8 runners and won comfortably, for a change.

Since being reinserted into the 2 hole (this includes a PH appearance), Boesch is 12-22 with 2 HR, and has seen his average rise from .227 to .252. I don’t think that Boesch’s streak has anything to do with Smokey moving him back up in the order, but rather should be attributed to the normal peaks and valleys of a season. Boesch has been streaky in the past, so let’ see how much we can get out of him during this one.

Peralta, on the other hand, seems to be on the path towards career averages, which would be welcomed. He’s hitting .387 over his last 10 and has raised his average from .239 to .267.

In light of the hitting from the supporting cast, I think the real story over the past few weeks is the bullpen. Tigers relievers are posting a 2.25 ERA and a .219 BAA over the past 25 games. Here are the last five outings for each of the relievers:

– Below – 3.00 ERA, 6 IP, 3 H
– Benoit – 0.00 ERA, 5.1 IP, 6 k
– Coke – 3.86 ERA, 4.2 IP, 9 k
– Marte – 3.38 ERA, 10.2 IP, 10 K
– Putkonen (not so good, but it was 3 weeks ago)
– Valverde – 0.00 ERA, 5 IP, 3 saves
– Villareal – 2.45 ERA, 7.1 IP, 9 K

And we’re going to add Al AlB to that in a few months? If the bats can just pick up, we’re going to be alright.

Today’s Notes:

– Ryan Raburn is back after hammering Triple-A pitching to the tune of .194 with 1 HR. Smyly to the DL.
– Are the Tigers looking at Carlos Quentin? He’d be an upgrade in LF over DY.

Today’s Series Winning There is Zero Justification for Batting Rayburn Ahead of Laird Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Boesch, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, LF
6. Peralta, SS
7. Raburn, 2B
8. Laird, C
9. Verlander, P

28-33, 3rd place, 6 games behind CWS.

Last night’s loss was as ugly as they come.  While replays may show that the umps blew both calls, the calls should have never been blowable, as both of the plays were routine for a major league shortstop. Routine. Good throws and they calls are no doubters. Moreover, the below average range off the mound and at 3B led to an IF hit that could have ended the inning. Oh yeah, and if Phil Coke doesn’t walk a guy (he walked 2 last night, compared to 1 in his previous 9 outings), then the run never scores. So really the bad calls exacerbated the Tigers more prominent problems, and demonstrate the fine W-L line that the Tigers are walking every night. We simply do not have the luxury to make mistakes, because our bats can’t atone for them, and our gloves can’t prevent runs. Is it 2008 all over again?

Porcello enters tonight with no where to go but up. He’s 0-2 with a 5.17 ERA over his last six starts. He hasn’t pitched into the 7th since May 6th, and if that happens tonight, it’s because we’re up by 10. Porcello is a titan at the plate (by Tigers standards), batting .250 with 2 RBI in 12 official ABs. No word on whether he can play second base or make an infield throw. Porcello doesn’t walk many, and the Cubs don’t hit the ball all that hard. So if we can make a few plays in the field, this match-up looks pretty favorable for the boys.

A few notes:

– The WSJ’s accuscore picked the Cubs to win 6.3 to 3.9. The CUBS!
– Omir Santos is now a Rockie Rocky member of the Colorado Rockies organization.
– Apparently Drew Smyly has been sidelined by “just a little Ebola.” (not for weak stomachs)
– A sweep by the Cubs and Leyland loses the benefit of the round (currently 1,614 and 1,616 = .49969).

Tonight’s We Had Better Win Lineup or Else We’ll Probably Lose the Series to the Cubs:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Boesch, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, LF
6. Peralta, SS
7. Laird, C
8. Santiago, 2B
9. Porcello, P