Game 2012.73: Tigers at Rangers

by Kevin in Dallas on June 25, 2012 · 32 comments

in 2012 Season,Game Post

Post image for Game 2012.73: Tigers at Rangers

35-37, 3rd place, 3 games behind CWS.

I realize that runs were a luxury over the weekend, but the Pirates are now 23-13 at home with a 2.28 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, all of which are best in the bigs.

Quentin Berry’s 2 run home run yesterday was just the 22nd Tigers home run with runners on base this season, which is 13th in the AL. Only the Royals have hit less HR with runners on base this season. Let’s take a closer look at the solo HR phenomenon.

The Tigers have now hit 44 solo home runs this year out of 66 total. Yes, the 67% solo HR ratio is worst in the AL, but the average solo HR % in the AL this year is 59%, and the Yankees, Blue Jays, Angels and Rays all have solo HR percentages at 60% or greater. So we’re not too far from the mean. FYI – the average AL team HR so far is 77, with a median of 71. So we’re 11 home runs off of the average pace, or about one every 6-7 games. Since 59% of those would be solos, it’s really not that many runs.

In conclusion, solo HRs are not the problem.

Our BA with runners on is .277, which is 3rd in the AL, but our slugging with runners on dips to .406, 7th in the AL. And slugging overall is .408, 7th in the Al. This looks be be a much bigger problem – we hit for average, but we don’t hit for any power. Why not? Let’s look at the lineup:

1. Jackson is slugging over 100 points higher than his career average. He’s not the problem.

2. Berry is slugging .423, which is almost 100 points higher than his MiLB average. I don’t think he can keep this up.

3. Cabrera is down slightly (.524 from .554). Not a big deal, though his walks are way down (understandably considering Fielder), but he’s not taking advantage of the increases ABs. That’s a tiny contribution to the problem.

4.  Fielder is down to .493 from .536. This is a problem. Some of this may be park effects, we’ll have to take a deeper look soon.

5. Delmon is down to .384 from .424. This is a problem.

6. Peralta is down to .394 from .426. This is a problem.

7. Boesch is down to .360 from .419. This is a problem.

8. Avila is down to .396 from .444. This is a problem.

9. Santiago is down to .318 from .341. This is funny.

Rayburn is down to .245 from .436. Did you know that RR has more walks (9) than RBIs (8) or runs (8). He also has more Ks (42) than TB (35).

Every hitter from 3-9 is down this year in terms of power, and most of them by a substantial amount. I expect the Tigers to be very active in the Quentin/Thome market.

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The Tigers begin a 67 game swing through Texas (3) and Tampa Bay (4), against two clubs who are a combined 15 games over .500 at home. The Rangers are 8-2 in their last 10 and have the league’s best record at 45-28; 17 games over .500. The slated Rangers pitchers are Grimm (a rookie), Darvish and Oswalt, the recent signing who looked spectacular in his first game back this season. The Tigers are countering with Porcello/TBDSmyly/TBDFister. This could be a long series. I’m worried about Porcello, nervous about Smyly, and cautiously optimistic about Fister.

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A few notes:

- Tigers are looking at Matt Garza (see ya Porcello?) and Jed Lowrie (to play 2B)
- The MLive Detroit Tigers iPhone app is worth a download (it’s free)

Tonight’s Lineup will be Posted Later:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Boesch, LF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Laird, C
9. Santiago, 2B

 
 

{ 32 comments }

Just Me June 25, 2012 at 3:53 pm

Excuse me. Isn’t this a 7 game swing, not 6? 4 with TB. The difference being this could be 7 losses for the Tigers instead of 6. Or 6 instead of 5 counting JV.

Kevin in Dallas June 25, 2012 at 4:07 pm

Man, I was hoping…corrected above.

Coleman June 25, 2012 at 4:41 pm

Tonight’s game is for all those people who always say the Tigers will start hitting once the weather gets hotter.

Coleman June 25, 2012 at 4:44 pm

OK, nevermind, fixed.

Coleman June 25, 2012 at 5:21 pm

Fielder’s solo home runs are a problem–but one that will probably fix itself. Over his career he hits something like 1 HR per 23 AB with men on; this year he’s 1-for-143 or something (which means we’ve been “cheated” out of about 6 Multi-run homers).

Kevin in Dallas June 25, 2012 at 6:17 pm

Which would get us to the league average.

The guys in front of him have been on base plenty; he’ll come around. Hopefully when he does it won’t be too late.

Vince in MN June 25, 2012 at 7:33 pm

For a moment I thought you were going to say “cheated out of $219 million.” That’s what I get for jumping ahead.

Coleman June 25, 2012 at 8:01 pm

It’s worth a few million per year to watch him run the bases. It’s hard to get too upset at him when you see him legging out every ground out and pop up. He might be driving a semi, but he keeps the pedal to the metal.

Mark June 25, 2012 at 8:18 pm

I wonder if Porcello remembers what happened the last time he pitched against the Rangers. I still
have nightmares about that first inning.

Kevin in Dallas June 25, 2012 at 8:23 pm

Which is why we need a few more still.

Vince in MN June 25, 2012 at 8:26 pm

On June 13th Boesch had 4 hits. Since June 13th Boesch has had 4 hits.

Kevin in Dallas June 25, 2012 at 8:27 pm

I’m calling a Jackson bomb here.

Vince in MN June 25, 2012 at 8:54 pm

12 for 12 in SB for Berry, who also has more walks and RBI than Raburn.

StorminNorman$ June 25, 2012 at 9:15 pm

yes, but how well does he fair on JL’s “dirtbag scale”?

Coleman June 25, 2012 at 9:17 pm

Quintin Berry is the one making all this happen.

StorminNorman$ June 25, 2012 at 9:18 pm

Not to take anything away from DET’s offense tonight, but Justin Grimm was pitching in AA ball a few weeks ago.

StorminNorman$ June 25, 2012 at 9:24 pm

prior to today, the reliever Kirkman had pitched 4 innings this year, given up 3 runs and 2 HR’s

Kevin in Dallas June 25, 2012 at 9:38 pm

He’s been on their prospect watch list for a while. Still waiting to see if he can figure it out.

Vince in MN June 25, 2012 at 10:11 pm

Actually not a bad outing for Mr. Kirkman as he tries to figure it out. After going 5 innings and 82 pitches tonight, we will fortunately not have to see him again this series.

tom in troy June 25, 2012 at 9:45 pm

7 runs for our guys in the first of a 3 game set? I am growing concerned. What will they do for the next 4 games — offense wise?

tom in troy June 25, 2012 at 10:13 pm

there is still time for him to make it interesting.

Coleman June 25, 2012 at 9:53 pm

I may have to dig up my Porcello only pitches well when it’s hot post.

Coleman June 26, 2012 at 4:04 pm

Well there you go–after the game Porcello credited the hot weather for his sinker being so good.

Coleman June 25, 2012 at 10:19 pm

Ok, maybe we should trade for this Porcello guy.

StorminNorman$ June 25, 2012 at 10:21 pm

HUGE K of Napoli there… Porcello picked a great game to find his schtuff… impressive!

Vince in MN June 25, 2012 at 10:25 pm

Does Boesch have any options left?

StorminNorman$ June 25, 2012 at 11:03 pm

two weeks in Toledo might help him get some confidence back, and maybe help him relocate the strike zone.

Vince in MN June 25, 2012 at 11:27 pm

Even longer if they make a deal (that doesn’t include him) for an outfielder that can hit.

Vince in MN June 25, 2012 at 10:34 pm

Got a very good 6 inning outing from Porcello, which is probably more than one should expect.

StorminNorman$ June 25, 2012 at 11:09 pm

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120616/SPORTS0104/206160381
Tigers get 7 hits in the first inning…only 3 H since – maybe this has something to do with the “killer instinct” (or lack thereof) JL recently referred to

Vince in MN June 25, 2012 at 11:21 pm

Two runs off of pitchers not named BP Grimm. That 5-run 1st inning was an abberation and probably won’t happen again for a while. The 5-9 spots will continue to remain Death Valley until they make a deal and Cabrera/Fielder are not going to knock in four runs every game.

Kevin in Dallas June 25, 2012 at 11:38 pm

Maybe we can just enjoy one for a night?

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