First there was Craig Dingman’s artery injury that will probably force him to retire. And then there was Troy Percival’s failed attempt to come back that has resulted in his retirement. Then yesterday the oft-injured Matt Mantei strained his oblique. Mantei had been impressing everyone this spring and was a likely candidate to make the team. Now it looks like Mantei is a likely candidate to retire as well.
Continue reading Tiger Spring Training Round-Up
From Danny Knobler’s blog:
The Tigers say it’s nothing serious, but Mike Maroth has a tender left elbow and isn’t going to start tomorrow against the Tribe.
“We’re just being precautionary,” Jim Leyland said.
Cautious or not, a sore elbow this early in the year scares me, especially from a pitcher that has been very durable his first 3 years. I know I was worried about the Tigers playing in the World Baseball Classic getting injured, but this is the 3rd situation to develop already (Monroe and Young are the others) – and the WBC hasn’t even started.
The Tigers moved to 2-0 during grapefruit league action after outslugging Cincinnati 17-10. Danny Knobler reports that Justin Verlander was shaky at first, but managed to pitch his way out of it. And he did it without a visit from Jim Leyland or pitching coach Chuck Hernandez.
Leyland isn’t against mound visits, but he’s also big on individual responsibility. He wants players to think for themselves, and he wants to see how they react in tough situations.
“Get out of your own jam sometime,” he said this morning, before Verlander even took the mound. “Figure out how to do it.”
Former Tiger pitching coach Bob Cluck has found a job. He’ll be a minior league pitching consultant for the San Diego Padres.
Continue reading Tiger Roundup
John Sickels has a “Prospect Smackdown” with the big 3 righthanded prospects for 2006: Chad Billingsley, Matt Cain, and Justin Verlander. Sickels ranks them
He gives the edge to Verlander due to Justin’s fastball’s higher peak velocity, physical stature, and minor league performance last year.
All 3 pitchers are pretty comparable, and it’s really a matter of who you ask as to how they rank. Baseball Prospectus ranks them Cain/Verlander/Billingsley. On the other hand Baseball America ranks them Billingsley/Verlander/Cain. Meanwhile, Bryan Smith from Baseball Analysts has it at Cain/Billingsley/Verlander.
Whatever the case, it’s just nice to have a Tiger in the mix for a change.
In the past I’ve expressed concern about the workloads Jim Leyland may impose on his young starters. That’s why I’m slightly reassured after seeing this article in the Lakeland Ledger. Leyland is quoted:
“We’re gonna watch them very closely to make sure everything’s all right,” Leyland said.
“You have to protect young pitchers. At the same time, we have to get them ready for the season,” Leyland said.
The good news is that he wants to protect the young pitchers. Why my fears are only slightly eased is that he doesn’t talk about limiting workload within individual games. While I know there is debate around the evidence, I happen to believe there is some truth to the Baseball Prospectus methods around pitcher abuse.
The research presented here has shown, in essence, that not all pitches are created equal. It is the high pitch count outings that represent the greatest risk for both short-term ineffectiveness, and long-term potential for injury.
While Leyland is prepared to exercise caution, I’m not entirely sure what his view of caution is.
What I do like about what Leyland said is trying to keep his starters stronger in the second half.
“It’s not always the best pitching staff that wins,” Leyland commented, “it’s the healthiest.”
“One thing we might do is bring somebody up (from the minors) for just one start,” Leyland said.
“That way, we could back up the whole rotation and give everybody an extra day off when we thought they needed it.”
The first 4 spots in the Tigers rotation were very stable the first half of the year. With the 2006 season having 3-4 viable candidates for one spot in the rotation, it would be a great way to get more pitchers more experience. All the pitchers in question (Verlander/Zumaya/Ledezma/Colon) are already on the 40 man roster so there wouldn’t be major roster implications to call someone up.
Baseball Prospectus has released their PECOTA player cards, and a half hour of clicking through all of the Detroit Tigers there are definitely some interesting highlights. But before we get into the neat stuff, a little bit about PECOTA. PECOTA is a projection system based on finding comparable players. Similarity is calculated based on performance, usage (playing time), and body similarities (handedness, body type). The system then uses the pool of comparable players (which could be as many as 100) to project what the player in question will do. One of the data points available is the similarity index. The higher the score, the better the pool of players matches the player in question. A score over 50 is pretty good, and less than 20 is pretty bad.
Now PECOTA is for BP subscribers only, so I won’t be laying out all the stats provided. I will just be hitting some highlights. (if you want to see what the cards look like, the White Sox are offered for free.
PECOTA is pretty high on Bonderman, and a quick glance at his comparables shows why. Some of the pitchers on his list include Joe Coleman, John Smoltz, Jake Peavy, Tom Seaver, and Catfish Hunter. His improve rate for next year is 77%, with no discernible decline until 2010.
PECOTA isn’t so enamored with the other pitcher in the Jeff Weaver deal. His attrition rate is as high as his improvement rate, and his collapse rate is higher than his breakout rate.
Continue reading Playing with PECOTA
David Pinto from Baseball Musings has begun to release the 2005 Probabilistic Model of Range (PMR) data. Today he posted a table of which pitchers had more outs than expected on balls in play (or the lucky/unlucky) as well as rankings of the expected percentage of outs on balls in play (how easy was it to field behind a pitcher).
Continue reading Luck and Fieldability
With Jeremy Bonderman reaching arbitration, he won’t be had for the $400,000 that he made the past two years. The 2006 season will be the first of 3 seasons where Bonderman will be arbitration eligible before reaching free agency. Now there is a school of thought – that has been applied very effectively in the past by the Indians – that it is wise sign young talent to multiyear contracts and secure their first years of free agency. Of the subset of Tigers eligible for arbitration, Bonderman is the most likely candidate to warrant a long term deal. The question is should the Tigers try to do it?
Bonderman is still extremely young, and still an injury risk. He’s been relatively healthy so far, but has yet to accumulate 200 innings in a season (which is probably a good thing). Bonderman has shows moments of brilliance, but when looking at his seasons in total he is simply an above average pitcher at this time. He started off excelelnt, but a line drive combined with other soreness contributed to a sinking strikeout rate and subpar performance in the second half.
At the same time, the Tigers moves this season have indicated that they plan on Bonderman being a fixture in the rotation for years to come. They didn’t pursue the top shelf pitchers in the hopes that Bonderman can fill that role. Additionally, the spending on free agents continues to drive the price for talent higher. Bonderman will stand to benefit from this surge regardless of if he signs a one year deal or something long term. Will the market continue to get above average pitchers $7 million or more a year, or will there be a correction with a new CBA on the horizon?
As a matter of comparison, last year the Twins signed Johan Santana to a 4 year contract which secured Santana’s first two years of free agent eligibility. To get the deal done it cost the Twins $40 million over 4 years. Now Santana just happens to be the best pitcher in the American League. But, pitchers who have done a lot less in their careers (or are well past their prime) have managed to secure contracts in the same neighborhood just one year later. Some continued growth from Bonderman, and continued growth in the free agent market and 4 years at $6 million per might seem like a bargain.
If you’re the Tigers, do you use the second half struggles as a way to save millions over the next several years? If you’re Jeremy Bonderman, do you turn down a long term contract because you know you can get a bigger payday when you put all the pieces together?
Peter Gammons latest offering (which is now Insider – damn ESPN) has some rumors about the Tigers pursuit of bullpen help. Actually, the article isn’t about that at all, but it does mention the Tigers.
Among the rumblings are that Bob Howry turned down $13.5 million from the Tigers to sign with the Cubs for $12 million over 3 years. Gammons also has sources speculating that the Tigers and Indians had offered 4 year deals to BJ Ryan (who signed for 5 years with the Blue Jays). However, my sources indicate that while Ryan was wined and dined and toured the Birmingham area he left town without an offer from the Tigers. (I know I don’t frequently have sources, but I believe my information to be pretty solid here).
I had hoped that the Tigers would be able to land Kyle Farnsworth. However, it appears that he will be a Yankee (I know, another subscription site) for 3 years and $17 million. The report states that the Tigers were among several teams who had offered 3/15. Given the price of relief pitching, that actually seems affordable.
The Tigers need to bolster their bullpen. I’m not giving up on Fernando Rodney as closer, but they need more talent before Rodney (or whoever the closer becomes) even gets the ball.
One of the Tigers’ free agent targets, BJ Ryan is headed to Toronto. New York Daily News reports that Ryan will get $47 million over the next 5 years. We’ll see if this increases the Tigers’ urgency, or price for Kyle Farnsworth. Whether or not the Tigers’ get a true closer isn’t as important as getting more quality arms in the bullpen. Fernando Rodney certainly wasn’t consistent as a closer last year, but the bullpen woes weren’t all because of a lack of a true closer.
I’m not sure that a 5 year contract would have been in the Tigers best interest anways, but if I were to give any available closer 5 years, Ryan would be my choice.
The Tigers announced today that they have name Manny Crespo as the director of Latin American Operations. Previously Ramon Pena handled Latin America, and I’m not sure if he is still involved or not (he’s still listed on the team’s website).
The Tigers also announced the hiring of 4 amateur scouts. Ray Crone Jr. and Jim Olander were added as national crosscheckers, Grant Brittain as an area scout and Steve Barningham as a part-time scout. Brittain will scout North Carolina and South Carolina, in addition to northern Georgia. Barningham will scout in the Pacific Northwest.
One of the drawbacks of signings like Magglio Ordonez is that discussions on sites like Baseball Primer focus on the theme that the money would be better spent on scouting and development. Assuming that these hirings are additions and not replacements, it shows that a team with enough money can do both.
While I’m not qualified to comment on the quality of scouts, I can say that the investment in scouting is probably one of the most encouraging moves this offseason. This appears to be the second offseason in a row where Detroit has been committed to scouting and development. Last year the Tigers hired David Chadd to head up scouting, as well as leasing a new training facility in the Dominican Republic. While the dividends will take longer to payout, the Tigers are trying to do the right things.
Bonderman’s Prospect Retro
John Sickels has a prospect retrospective on Jeremy Bonderman.
The Tigers promoted Bonderman directly to the majors in 2003, skipping Double-A and Triple-A entirely. This kind of decision carries a large risk of backfire with the psychological health of a young player. Although Bonderman pitched terribly in 2003 and almost lost 20 games, he retained confidence in himself. His ’04 and ’05 seasons were qualified successes, as he emerged as a .500 pitcher with an ERA slightly below league average. Given his age, that’s certainly acceptable, and scouts remain very high on his future.
The Tigers announced today that Chuck Hernandez will be the team’s new pitching coach. Hernandez had the same position with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for the last two seasons. However, outside of Scott Kazmir he hasn’t had much talent to work with.
I don’t know much about Hernandez, so I tried to find some information about his philosophies or styles – and I didn’t come up with much. Here is what I found:
Relating to pitchers: (link)
On Pitching to top hitters: (link)
And that’s about all I found. He’s held the position of minor league pitching coordinator, and his staff in Tampa was very young so he should be comfortable working with kids. In any case it will be interesting to see the direction that the major league staff, as well as the minor league pitchers take.