39-42, 3rd place, 4.5 games back.

Happy Independence Day everyone.

The Twins are now 4-0 at Comerica this year.

In a season which began with sky high expectations, the Tigers arrive at the midway point 3 games under .500 with little reason to believe that the second 81 will be much better. Last night’s game was a microcosm of the season. Two Santiago errors led to 5 unearned runs, and Brennan Boesch’s poor play in the 7th led to another. Though the play was ruled a 2B, most other regular OFers make that play. The Bullpen’s walks (5) nearly matched its IPs (6.1), and the Tigers again failed to produce with the bases loaded, lowering their season average to .219  with a .531 OPS. (Contrast that to batting .294 with a .797 OPS with RISP for the season). Both Trevor Plouffe and Josh Willingham are having better offensive seasons than Prince Fielder.

To be honest, the loss was embarrassing. Dan Dickerson and Jim Price raised several concerns after the radio broadcast and chided the organization for the guys’ inability to manufacture runs and play defense, and questioned whether the Tigers can get back to .500. Price inferred that Ramon is being overplayed at 2B simply because the Tigers don’t have any other options.

Another loss today would be devastating.

But fortunately, Justin Verlander climbs the hill.

The Tigers simply need to start winning.

Now.

Lineups Later (or please post if you get the chance, headed to a BBQ, as I hope you are).

39-41, 3rd place 3.5 games back.

The Tigers are now 0-8 in get back to .500 games since mid-May. Hopefully they’ll have an opportunity to break that streak tomorrow.

A sore hamstring has pushed Scherzer back to Sunday (and gives JV a leg up on the K king race), so Duane Below gets his first start of the season today. Below hasn’t pitched more than 2 2/3 since April, so Jimmy doesn’t expect to let Below go more than 4 today. Drew Smyly will be watching intently…

A few notes:

– Matt Young down (was he still up?) reliever Darin Downs up. Young struck out 9 times and doubled in his other plate appearance. Downs put up some solid numbers in Toledo- 29.1 IP, 2.15 ERA, 33 Ks, 1.13 WHIP. No word on whether he can play 2B.
– Fielder’s error in the 8th inning against the Rangers last Wed has been changed to a single; presumably to boost the Rangers bullpen ERA. Funny how other teams do that for their pitching staff.

Tonight’s Lineup Features a Flash Clown Show Flood Warning:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Avila, C
7. Raburn, 2B
8. Boesch, RF
9. Santiago, SS

39-40, 3rd place, 3 games back.

Let’s talk about the lineup for a second. I really feel that the Berry/Jackson swap is gaining momentum, since I now know of 3 people on the bandwagon (me, Coleman, and Sean). Jason Beck even chimed in, though he thinks AJax should stay at the top. Let’s dig a little deeper.

Beck raised the point that Jackson’s doubles rate makes it likely that a double + bunt puts one one at third with Cabby/Fielder coming up. My contention is that if Berry gets on 1st, we have a much better chance of bringing him home with AJax behind him (due to Berry’s ability to get to 2nd on his own, + the XB power of Jackson, Cabrera & Fielder).

But, the other point to consider is Jackson’s current .404 OBP (also raised by Beck). Now, Berry’s is currently close enough (.385) that I still think it makes sense. But if their OBPs diverge, then Jackson is likely a better choice. In the long run, I see Jackson moving down the order (a la Granderson/Cano/Sizemore).

Last night’s game saw an ordinary Smyly (actually, he was fantastic for 4 innings, and terrible for 1) followed by a superb bullpen. While the Tigers are addressing the 5th spot, the bullpen looks to be set. 4 IP, 2 H and 6 Ks last night. I wonder if Leyland is considering going with Villarreal and Coke as his 7th innning guys in lieu of Dotel. After a great April, Dotel was lit up in May and June to the tune of a 6.32 ERA. Villarreal led the bullpen with 16 innings in June posting a .94 WHIP and 22Ks.

The Tigers get Liam Hendriks tonight, a guy who has yet to win in 12 ML starts. It’s hard to believe that the Twins don’t have a better option than a guy with a 6.82 ERA this year (6.55 career) and a 1.61 career WHIP (1.67 this year). Though the Tigers have been known to turn unknowns into Cy-knowns. Hendriks does have 2 QS this year, one was a ND against Texas back in April, and the other was his last time out against the Sox.

This will be the Tigers’ 8th shot at getting back to .500 since May 15th…

A few notes:

– Congrats to Fielder (starter), JV (in the running to start) and Cabby for their all star selections. Jackson was left of the vote-in list, but he’s got to be next on the list in the event that an outfielder gets injured.
– I saw Leyland’s press conference last night (UVerse offers FSD as part of its regular sports package) and he mentioned that Villareal really loses arm strength after an inning, especially the next night. I’m okay with that.
– Ryan Raburn hit .321 with an .809 OPS in June. Boesch hit .220 with a .576 OPS. Which explains the order below, despite a RH starter.
– Dontrelle Willis announced his retirement today.

Tonight’s Back to .500 Lineup Is:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Raburn, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Avila, C
9. Santiago, 2B

Detroit Tigers, 38-40, 4 games behind Chicago.

Is it time to move Austin Jackson back in the lineup?

AJax continues to impress, still leading the Tigers in batting average (.326), on base percentage (.408) and OPS (.945), and only a few points behind Cabrera in slugging percentage (.537 to .541).

With runners in scoring position, the big bat in the Tiger lineup is not Miguel Cabrera, and not Prince Fielder, but Austin Jackson, who is hitting .372 with an OPS of 1.212 with RISP, with 3 HR and 29 RBI.  Cabrera is at a healthy .368/.966, also with 3 HR and 41 RBI–but he has had the advantage of twice as many plate appearances with RISP as Jackson has had (103 vs 56) because of Jackson’s spot in the lineup.

Jackson came up big again last night with 2 out and 2 on, and put the game away with a rare multi-run home run against Pine Tar Peralta.

The win last night means that the Tigers still have a chance to hit the halfway point of the season above .500, but they will have to win today to do it.

That task will fall to Drew Smyly, who after a blistering start, has had a string of rather ordinary outings.  There was nothing ordinary about the last start of his opponent, Alex Cobb.  In what coach Joe Maddon called a “heroic” performance, Cobb pitched a complete game against the Royals–an 8-run, 13-hit complete game. Let’s hope there is more of that heroism this afternoon.

Stat of the Day: Over his last 2 starts Rick Porcello has an ERA of 0.69, and a WHIP of an even 1.000.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Raburn, Kelly, and Santiago, who between them will find some way of getting a runner or two into scoring position for Austin Jackson

Today’s Pin-The-Tail-On-The-Don-Kelly Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Quintin Berry LF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Alex Avila C
7. Ryan Raburn 2B
8. Don Kelly RF
9. Ramon Santiago SS

Detroit Tigers, 37-40, 5 games behind Chicago. Tiger record against AL East: 9-9.

Yesterday we had a long intro and few comments, and the Tigers lost. Today looking to change things up.

It’s Earth, Wind & Fire night at Tropicana, as Rick Porcello takes the mound against the Rays in game 3 of 4 in Tampa.

It’s also pine tar and takedown night, as Tampa regains the services of relievers Joel Peralta and Kyle Farnsworth for tonight’s game.

Stat of the Day: Tampa Bay is mysteriously bad against the AL Central: 4-10, including a sweep by the Royals. In fact, remove the AL Central games from all the AL East teams’ records, and the Rays are comfortably in first place.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Delmon Young. Delmon is having one of those mini-hot streaks that can make him seem like an actual threat, hitting .346 with a home run over the last 6 games. Let’s see if he can keep it up another game or two.

Today’s Back-To-Jacksonberry Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Quintin Berry LF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Alex Avila C
7. Brennan Boesch RF
8. Jhonny Peralta SS
9. Ramon Santiago 2B

Detroit Tigers, 37-39, 4 games behind Chicago. Tiger record with Toby Harrah as Special Co-Hitting-Coach-Consultant-Guy: 2-0.

So what kind of genius thing was that anyway, the Toby Harrah deal? I’m not talking about the 32 hits in 2 games, that is most likely mere coincidence.  But there was this dilemma:  the Tiger offense was woefully underperforming, and fans wanted the head of Lloyd McClendon, if nothing else to “send a message” (although to whom, and about what, was less clear).

On the other hand, there was Leyland’s legendary loyalty to his coaches (and players), so at the same time, the scenario of a McClendon firing was almost unimaginable.  Then someone had a truly brilliant insight:  you don’t need to fire McClendon (loyalty intact)–just hire another hitting coach.  In fact, they may be hiring more, who knows?  There are no limits on the number of hitting coaches you can have (although they can’t all be in the dugout)…just wish I knew whose idea it was.

Or maybe the key to the offense is more hitting slumps. Leyland seems to think they are a good thing.

Max Scherzer leapfrogged Justin Verlander back into the AL strike out lead.  This is a less frivolous thing than you might think. With Detroit’s gloveless wonders in the field (sorry Austin, but you can’t cover the entire field), every ball not put into play is a blessing.

Alas, poor Max, your lead will be short-lived, for The Man himself takes that mound tonight:  it’s V-Day again. Justin Verlander is not in the mood to lose games. You can see it from his Game Post picture.

But Verlander will have to contend with Batman; former Tiger Will Rhymes (who we jettisoned because we had too many second basemen) is in the Rays’ lineup.

*****

It’s not V-Mart day though:  the news on Victor wasn’t bad per se, but it doesn’t look like an August return is in the cards . More mid-Septemberish.

And what’s up with Andy Dirks? This one has flown a bit under the radar. But Andy Dirks is actually 4th on the team in OPS (right between Cabrera and Fielder…think about that), and can actually glove it in the outfield. I think his absence from the team is vastly underrated.

Things are looking better for Al Alburquerque. If Al-Al could actually come back as anywhere near the pitcher he was last season, the Tiger bullpen could turn into something very special

*****

Stat of the Day: Detroit and Texas are the only AL teams without a single at bat this season by a player 36 or older. Where have all the old dudes gone?

(The Tigers blow the tie with a September call up of their hot shortstop prospect, 43-year old Cale Iorg).

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Toby Harrah.

Today’s Berry-Stays-In-With-A-Lefty Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Ramon Santiago 2B
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Ryan Raburn RF
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Gerald Laird C
9. Quintin Berry LF

Detroit Tigers, 36-39, 4 games behind Chicago.

The Tigers may not have been able to keep up with the Ranger scoring onslaught last night, but the offense did finally have a big game.  Maybe there will be more of the same now that Detroit has another hitting coach, ex-Ranger Toby Harrah, Detroit’s minor league hitting coordinator.  Harrah will probably “come and go,” and will be working alongside Lloyd McClendon.

More help for the offense may–or may not–come later in the season from Victor Martinez, who is undergoing an MRI today, which should give some clues as to his progress.

Hopefully the hot Tiger bats don’t cool in air-conditioned Tropicana Field, where the Tigers take on Tampa Bay in a 4-game series. The Rays are fresh off of a sweeping at the hands of the Royals, who have snuck up to within one game of Detroit in the Central.

Stat of the Day: Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are #1 and #2 in the AL in strike outs with 113 and 107.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Ramon Santiago.  Santiago has quietly been heating up (hitting .310 over the last 2 weeks).  Look for a Santiago-Jackson-Berry rally, and a respite from clown antics.

Today’s Indoor Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Quintin Berry LF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Alex Avila C
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Brennan Boesch RF
9. Ramon Santiago 2B

36-38, 3rd place, 3 games behind CWS

Dombrowski said today that “he did not think that 2B is going to be the reason why we win or lose the division.” Was this an endorsement of Santiago? Santiago’s hitting .286 in June and as long as Ramon gets the majority of the ABs, then I agree with DD. Despite that, Tigers 2B are hitting .202 this season, which is why Lowrie remains a trade rumor.

Fister climbs the mound tonight the 9th time, looking for his 7th quality start…and 2nd win. He’s the mark of consistency, having posted 14 quality starts in his 18 career Det starts. Fister is 2-1 with a 2.91 ERA over his last three against Texas, including 2 runs in 7 and 1/3 in last year’s ALCS. Nelson Cruz is a lifetime 7-14 with one dinger off of Fister.

The Tigers will face Roy Oswalt (remember him?) on a scorching Texas night (hit 104 here today). Oswalt went 6 2/3 allowing 9 hits, 1 walk, 1 run and striking out 6 in his first game back since injuries cut his season short last year. Oswalt has dominated Cabrera (3-15) and Fielder (5-36) in his career; with few ABs against anyone else.

A few notes:

– AJax has the AL’s top OBP from the lead -off spot at .402
– JV is up for two ESPY’s – Best Male Athlete and best MLB player
– Did you know that the Tigers are 24-18 when Raburn starts, but 6-12 when Worth starts?
– Good article on MLive today which discussed Scherzer opening up about his brother.

Tonight’s Series Taking Season Turn-arounding Lineup Is:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Avila, C
7. Peralta, SS
8. Boesch, RF
9. Raburn, 2B

36-37, 3rd place, 2 games behind CWS.

Rick P climbed the mound last night against the same team that battered him for the worst performance of his career eight weeks ago, and turned in his best performance of the year. He threw first pitch strikes to 19 out of 27 batters, and used the Texas heat to consistently threw his best sinker of the year down in the strike zone. Now, he still walked 3 and gave up 6 hits before being pulled 1 batter into the 7th, but he was charged with only 1 run (due to Villareal’s only bad pitch of his outing). I think that Porcello still has a lot to learn about the art of pitching, but that sinker can win a lot of games.

Smyly back up today and will make his first start in 15 days. Smyly’s brief career can be defined by the number 6 – as in 6 brilliant starts to begin his career, and then 6 mediocre ones. He started his career 4-2 with a 1.59 ERA (including 1 ER over 6 IP against Texas), but is 1-2 with a 6.67 ERA since. Let’s hope that this begins a devilish 6 game win streak and brings his 6 streak to 6 – 6 – 6.

No word on how debilitated Yu Darvish has become from hearing the intro to Soldier Boy over and over.

I’m wondering if it may make more sense to bat Berry 1st, and Jackson 2nd. With Jackson’s ability to go the other way, I think that he can develop into a great #2 hitter; and Berry’s speed and base stealing ability almost mandate that he bat 1st.

A few notes:

– Dave Cameron demonstrates how pitchers are successfully pitching to Josh Hamilton.
– Fangraphs posted an argument that JV could have entered the 7th on Sunday with a no-hitter on the line, but for Cabrera’s defense. (Video replays included, makes for healthy debate).

PoPG is Cabrera. He mashes against Texas – .378 BA and 1.033 OPS over his career. He leads the AL in hits since May 10th with 60, and has posted a 1.065 OPS during that time.

Tonight’s Seemingly Rational Lineup Until I Looked at Order Splits:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Boesch, RF (2012 OPS batting 6th – .615, 2012 OPS batting 7th – .839)
7. Peralta, SS (virtually identical 6/7 order splits)
8. Avila, C
9. Santiago, 2B

35-37, 3rd place, 3 games behind CWS.

I realize that runs were a luxury over the weekend, but the Pirates are now 23-13 at home with a 2.28 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, all of which are best in the bigs.

Quentin Berry’s 2 run home run yesterday was just the 22nd Tigers home run with runners on base this season, which is 13th in the AL. Only the Royals have hit less HR with runners on base this season. Let’s take a closer look at the solo HR phenomenon.

The Tigers have now hit 44 solo home runs this year out of 66 total. Yes, the 67% solo HR ratio is worst in the AL, but the average solo HR % in the AL this year is 59%, and the Yankees, Blue Jays, Angels and Rays all have solo HR percentages at 60% or greater. So we’re not too far from the mean. FYI – the average AL team HR so far is 77, with a median of 71. So we’re 11 home runs off of the average pace, or about one every 6-7 games. Since 59% of those would be solos, it’s really not that many runs.

In conclusion, solo HRs are not the problem.

Our BA with runners on is .277, which is 3rd in the AL, but our slugging with runners on dips to .406, 7th in the AL. And slugging overall is .408, 7th in the Al. This looks be be a much bigger problem – we hit for average, but we don’t hit for any power. Why not? Let’s look at the lineup:

1. Jackson is slugging over 100 points higher than his career average. He’s not the problem.

2. Berry is slugging .423, which is almost 100 points higher than his MiLB average. I don’t think he can keep this up.

3. Cabrera is down slightly (.524 from .554). Not a big deal, though his walks are way down (understandably considering Fielder), but he’s not taking advantage of the increases ABs. That’s a tiny contribution to the problem.

4.  Fielder is down to .493 from .536. This is a problem. Some of this may be park effects, we’ll have to take a deeper look soon.

5. Delmon is down to .384 from .424. This is a problem.

6. Peralta is down to .394 from .426. This is a problem.

7. Boesch is down to .360 from .419. This is a problem.

8. Avila is down to .396 from .444. This is a problem.

9. Santiago is down to .318 from .341. This is funny.

Rayburn is down to .245 from .436. Did you know that RR has more walks (9) than RBIs (8) or runs (8). He also has more Ks (42) than TB (35).

Every hitter from 3-9 is down this year in terms of power, and most of them by a substantial amount. I expect the Tigers to be very active in the Quentin/Thome market.

*********************************

The Tigers begin a 67 game swing through Texas (3) and Tampa Bay (4), against two clubs who are a combined 15 games over .500 at home. The Rangers are 8-2 in their last 10 and have the league’s best record at 45-28; 17 games over .500. The slated Rangers pitchers are Grimm (a rookie), Darvish and Oswalt, the recent signing who looked spectacular in his first game back this season. The Tigers are countering with Porcello/TBDSmyly/TBDFister. This could be a long series. I’m worried about Porcello, nervous about Smyly, and cautiously optimistic about Fister.

*********************************

A few notes:

– Tigers are looking at Matt Garza (see ya Porcello?) and Jed Lowrie (to play 2B)
– The MLive Detroit Tigers iPhone app is worth a download (it’s free)

Tonight’s Lineup will be Posted Later:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Boesch, LF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Laird, C
9. Santiago, 2B

Detroit Tigers, 34-37, 3 1/2 games behind Cleveland.

The Tigers couldn’t touch Cy Lincoln, McCutchen got an 0-2 fastball he liked very much, and that was that, a quick tidy victory for the Pirates.

Well, the Tigers got the obligatory solo home run, and have still not been shut out this season.  So there’s that.

Also Delmon Young got a walk, for those of you have have been holding your breath since his last one (May 22).

At any rate, the Pirates have the brooms out, ready to sweep Detroit out toward Arlington with their Tiger tails between their legs.

First they will have to deal with Justin Verlander.

The last time Verlander faced Pittsburgh, he threw a memorable one-hitter.  This time he also gets to bat, looking to break a career 0-for-22 slump.

Stat of the Day: Prince Fielder has 11 home runs; 10 of them are solo home runs. He has 1 HR in 146 plate appearances with a man on base.  His career average is 1 HR for every 23 PA with men on.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Ryan Raburn.  With the middle of the lineup slumping horribly, Raburn gets a key hit off of Cy Young candidate Kevin Correia and the surprise POPG nod.

Today’s Burnberry Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Quintin Berry RF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young LF
6. Alex Avila C
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Ryan Raburn 2B
9. Justin Verlander P

Detroit Tigers, 34-36, 3 1/2 games behind Cleveland.

The last game had a little of everything–Pitcher Fielding Follies, Clownman antics in left, strange double-shifting–and a lot of nothing.

Friday night the Tigers continued to help Pittsburgh gain ground in the NL Central, this time by losing to the Pirates 4-1.  The Pirates tried to be sporting about it by sending Jason Grilli and his weak s*** out in the 8th inning to face the heart of the Tiger order, but nothing doing (yes, I realize Grilli is having a good season).

In fact there was a hole in the heart of the order all night:  the Cabrera-Fielder combo was 0-4 with RISP, and had an overall OPS of .000. Over the last 3 games the duo is a combined 2-for-24, and, significantly, 0 walks.

Today that may change against Pirate starter Brad Lincoln, who is has a 10.83 ERA in 3 starts since entering the starting rotation, and has yet to make it through 5 innings.

The offensive support would be helpful: Max Scherzer understandably may not be on the top of his game today. Scherzer is rejoining the team after two days away. There is speculation as to the reasons for the absence, but the official word is just that he was off for “personal reasons.”

Stat of the Day: Over the past 14 days Miguel Cabrera has put up this Inge-like line: .227 BA, .320 OBP, .354 SLG, .684 OPS. Fielder has hit .237 during that time.  I blame the All-Star Campaign Jinx.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Max Scherzer, you are our player of the game today, no matter how your outing turns out.

Today’s Underwhelming Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Brennan Boesch RF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young LF
6. Alex Avila C
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Ramon Santiago 2B
9. Max Scherzer P