Game 2016.43: Rays at Tigers

A few notes about the Second Inning (games 19-36):

– The Tigers went 6-12, marred by losing 11/12 at one point in time (I think we all remember that).

– The Hitters posted a slash line of .248/.314/.397 for an OPS of .711.

– The Pitchers posted an ERA of 5.25 with 121 Ks and 54 walks in 154 1/3 innings.

– Cabrera’s line during that period: .309/.390/.441 with an OPS of .831 and 5/21 hits were XBH.

– Here is the bullpens’ ERA & WHIP (most of the guys) during that time. ERA is dependent on a number of factors that the pitcher doesn’t control (like RBIs offensively) and FIP is a better measure (can’t get that easily), but with these gaudy figures, it really doesn’t matter. Numbers in parenthesis are their career WHIPs.

  • Kyle Ryan: 3.00/1.50 (1.35)
  • Drew Verhagen: 5.87/1.67 (1.44)
  • Justin Wilson: 9.45/1.80 (1.21)
  • Mark Lowe: 15.19/1.88 (1.40) – what’s incredible about Lowe is that of the 7 hits he gave up, 4 of them were HRs.
  • Alex Wilson: 7.04/1.56 (1.15)
  • Francisco Rodriguez: 1.69/1.31 (1.14)

So you had this amazing phenomenon where, based on WHIP (and likely several other key metrics) EVERY pitcher pitched worse, and mostly significantly worse, than his career average. Heck, you may be hard pressed to find a stretch that bad for Wilson, Wilson, and Lowe. All at a time when the offense was really bad too (the team OPS for the season is .751).

You could interpret this in two ways – 1) Ausmus lost the clubhouse. The team got into a funk and Ausmus couldn’t motivate anyone to get out of it. Or 2) the team played about as poorly in every facet of the game possible.  As far as starters go – Zimmerman and Verlander were solid in the second inning Sanchez, Fulmer, and Pelfrey had ERAs of 5.11/6.00/7.29 during that stretch.

With just slightly better bullpen pitching the Tigers win 2-3 more games during that stretch, and if the bullpen pitches like history says it should, we are probably closer to .500 for the Second Inning and are a few games over .500 right now.

Anyway, Zimmermann gets the rock to try and lead the Tigers to a series win today. Baseball Reference game preview here.

2B Ian Kinsler

RF J.D. Martinez

1B Miguel Cabrera

DH Victor Martinez

3B Nick Castellanos

LF Steven Moya

CF Cameron Maybin

C Jarrod Saltalamachhia

SS Andrew Romine

 

 

Game 2016.42: Rays at Tigers

Smyly on the mound for the Rays this afternoon.

Fulmer brings his winning record and staff pacing 6.52 ERA to the hill.

Should be interesting. I’m lining up my lawn mowing/Skoal time with opening pitch. This hasn’t worked that well for me yet this year.

Baseball Reference game preview here.

Today’s lineup (career numbers vs. Drew Smyly):

  1. Ian Kinsler, 2B (4-for-10, HR, walk, K)
  2. J.D. Martinez, RF (0-for-3, 2 K’s)
  3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B (0-for-3)
  4. Victor Martinez, DH
  5. Nick Castellanos, 3B (1-for-3, double, K)
  6. Justin Upton, LF
  7. Cameron Maybin, CF
  8. James McCann, C (2-for-2, HR)
  9. Jose Iglesias, SS (0-for-3, K)

Game 2016.41: Rays at Tigers

TB in for a three game set. Sanchez starts tonight. Assuming the kids cooperate, I’m going to take a look at the 2nd inning tomorrow.

Baseball-Reference game preview here.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B

2. J.D. Martinez, RF

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

4. Victor Martinez, DH

5. Nick Castellanos, 3B

6. Justin Upton, LF

7. Cameron Maybin, CF

8. James McCann, C

9. Jose Iglesias, SS

Game 2016.40: Twins at Tigers

You can’t tell anything about a baseball team until 40 games have been played.

-Sparky Anderson

Well, after today’s game it looks like we will be able to tell a thing or two about the 2016 Tigers.

Last night was the first time in a while that all parts of the game seemed to be clicking at that same time: the Tigers were hitting, fielding, running the bases; the bullpen did its job, and Mike Pelfrey finally picked up that elusive first W. Just kidding! Kyle Ryan got the W in relief, and Pelfrey’s last win is still August 12th, 2015.

Hit of the game has to be the Iglesias hit in the 7th. With the game tied, one out, and runners on the corners, James McCann whiffed, leaving two outs. Maybin steals second (that’s legal?) and Iglesias brings them both hone with a clutch single. The wheels fell off for the Twins after that, but I think if the Tigers had left that inning with a 2-2 ties, the game would have finished very differently.

Brad Ausmus is back today, looking to broom the lowly Twins out of town.

Today’s Lineup:

  1. Kinsler, 2B
  2. JD Martinez, RF
  3. Cabrera, 1B
  4. Castellanos, 3B
  5. Upton, LF
  6. Moya, DH
  7. Maybin, CF
  8. Saltalamacchia, C
  9. Iglesias, SS

With the series ending with the day game after the night game, I thought we might see some lineup foolery (Aviles, anyone?), but other than giving McCann a much-needed rest, Brad’s giving us the full-strength regular mix.

Update: the original lineup that was released had Martinez at DH; now it’s Moya.

Game 2016.39: Twins at Tigers

Well, that was certainly more exciting than I thought it was going to be last night. It looked like the Twins were cooked when Kinsler took the first pitch of the game deep and led off an 8-run first inning, especially with Zimmerman on the mound. But…Tigers.

Brad got a little excited also, and went all Earl Weaver out there. He said 7 or 8 players were upset about the strike zone, and he was speaking for them.

Tonight is the Pelfrey game of the series. The last time Pelfrey won a start Brad Ausmus was in grade school or something. He is the current whipping boy du jour (aside from Brad of course), but he really did pitch well enough to win last time out.

Today’s Lineup:

  1. Kinsler, 2B
  2. JD Martinez, RF
  3. Cabrera, 1B
  4. Martinez, DH
  5. Castellanos, 3B
  6. Upton, LF
  7. Maybin, CF
  8. McCann, C
  9. Iglesias, SS

Maybin got off to a great start. Of course Gose did last season too. How about Moya as a late inning PH for McCann? There are worse things than having a lefty with power on the bench.

Game 2016.38: Twins at Tigers

The Tigers may have gotten lucky on a checked swing call, but for a change they jumped on their break, putting the next two pitches over the fence, leaving the Orioles rather bitter about the whole thing.

The ongoing saga of the recovery of Cameron Maybin has finally ended with Maybin landing in tonight’s lineup. To make room for Maybin the Tigers have shipped out Anthony Gose. This seems like the right move: Gose has been contributing very little, even, frustratingly, on the base paths, while Moya’s bat has added some spark to the lineup, enough to make up for a bit of shakiness with the glove. Because it seems like the right move, I was mildly surprised. I was also ready to give the Upton/Moyà combo another spin, but apparently it is an unwritten rule or something that a guy has to start his first day back.

Good news for the home stand: the Tigers get the 10-26 Twins. More good news: the rotation has come back around to Zimmerman’s spot.

Today’s Lineup:

  1. Kinsler, 2B
  2. JD Martinez, RF
  3. Cabrera, 1B
  4. Martinez, DH
  5. Castellanos, 3B
  6. Upton, LF
  7. Maybin, CF
  8. Saltalamacchia, C
  9. Iglesias, SS

Game 2016.37: Tigers at Orioles

Drafting this on Saturday b/c I’m out of town on Sunday.

Fill in the blanks.

The Tigers lost in ______________ (spectacular, heartbreaking, the usual) fashion yesterday, falling a third straight time to the O’s, and for the 11th time in 12 games. That’s right, the Tigers have one win in May. While many will point to _______________ (a lack of hitting, Anibal Sanchez, the bullpen, Justin Upton, all four) for the loss, the reality is that Ausmus has lost this clubhouse, and the team is playing with about as much effort as my employees demonstrate after Friday taco lunch.

I still don’t understand why Ausmus ________________ (left in _______ so long, didn’t pinch hit for ____________, didn’t think about _____________ in ____________ situation).His managerial playbook is as confusing to me as are adult coloring books, and I wonder if his bench coaches are all mutes or dumb.

I will note that I’ve been turning on 1130 AM in the mornings via iHeartRadio. Matt Shepard let’s his callers go on forever (though that seems to be typical in a 1 host format), but there is a lot of Tigers commiserating going on. It’s good to not be alone.

Game 2016.34: Tigers at Orioles

Another game, another loss, this one just happened to nearly set an MLB record for futility.

Ausmus made two huge managerial blunders yesterday – not getting Salty in to the game via a double switch after his PH appearance, and not sending a red hot Castellanos up to bat. This seriously may be the best two month stretch of Castellanos’ career. And he can’t get a PH at bat under last night’s circumstances. Think about that.

Firing Ausmus doesn’t put us in the playoffs, but it may at least but the game back in the hands of the players.

I wanted to talk about Cabrera for a sec. Last week I heard Jim lamenting about how the ball doesn’t look to be coming off of Cabrera’s bat with the same velocity that we’re used to. He implied that Cabrera maybe had lost some power. We’ve seen this in the past when he’s had his core issues, but the understanding was that he was fully healthy this year. So what do the numbers tell us?

The first number to look at is is ISO. Isolated power is SLG – AVG, or basically extra bases per at-bat. Cabrera’s career ISO is .239, this year it’s .152, a marked decrease. In fact, last year’s .196 was the only season of his career below .200. His line drive rate this year is 25.3%, which is slightly above his career average of 22.1%, but based on Fangraphs’ soft speed/medium speed/hard speed metrics of his balls in play (provided by Baseball Info Solutions), he’s below his career average for hard, and above for soft and medium. This is a concern. Further, he’s going opposite field 35.4% of the time, vs. a career average of 28.3%. He’s only pulling the ball 34.3% of the time, which is a slight decrease from last year’s 35.8%, and well below his career 39.4% average.

It’s definitely expected that he’ll lose some power over time, and a more experienced hitter goes the other way more often, but the actual numbers are concerning. I’ll also point out that his 11.1% swinging strike rate is his highest since 2008, and well above last year’s 9.6% (something we would not expect from a more experienced hitter).

In a nutshell, less XBH, softer hit balls, and more swinging strikes. Not good indicators. He’s definitely earned the right to a larger sample size, but either he’s declining rapidly, or still injured.

Moya up (Hardy down), Upton still in the lineup – in CF. Baseball-Reference game preview here.

Daniel Norris is up as well, though he hasn’t pitched well in the minors.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B

2. J.D. Martinez, RF

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

4. Victor Martinez, DH

5. Nick Castellanos, 3B

6. Justin Upton, CF

7. Steven Moya, LF

8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C

9. Jose Iglesias, SS

Game 2016.32: Tigers at Nationals

Last night the Tigers hit a new season Lowe, as they ran their losing streak up to 7.

The game was an interesting game despite the ending, with a decent start by Anibal Sanchez, the reappearance of JD Martinez, some umpire-baiting, and some conversation-provoking managerial decisions. For what it’s worth, Brad says that he did anticipate that Washington would intentionally walk Martinez. But his thinking was “hey, more RBIs for Saltalamacchia if he runs into one” (that’s a paraphrase). He didn’t, and Brad regrets getting greedy.

There is a lot of talk about Brad Ausmus being on the hot seat, but with May’s unseasonably cold weather, that sounds more comfortable than what is warranted. Maybe instead they should slide a couple of those ice packs into his seat cushion.

Bryce Harper is probably looking at a suspension for coming onto the field after being ejected. Not to mention that he gave a verbal Collinsing to the umpire while he was out there. Dusty Baker says he might have to spank him (yes, he did).

Today’s Lineup:

  1. Kinsler, 2B
  2. JD Martinez, LF
  3. V Martinez, 1B
  4. Castellanos, 3B
  5. Upton, LF
  6. McCann, C
  7. Gose, CF
  8. Romine, SS
  9. Fulmer, P

Tonight was probably going to be Cabrera’s night out of the lineup anyway—Castellanos, Cabrera, and Martinez were going to each play 2 games of the series. He says his knee is OK. Iglesias is in a 1-for-19 slump, the worst of his career, so lettuce hope Romine can do better.