The battle for the back end of the Tigers starting rotation has been the story of the spring for Detroit fans. The Tigers are counting on two of the Jeremy Bonderman – Nate Robertson – Dontrelle Willis trio to bill out the last 40% of the starters innings. Bonderman has pretty much had the 4th spot assured leaving Robertson and Willis battling for the 5th spot. But with Robertson outpitching Willis by most measures, it appears that Robertson is on the block and Willis has that last spot. A dangerous proposition to say the least.
Yearly Archives: 2010
Seay, Miner hit the DL
The Tigers trimmed their roster down to 32 this morning with a couple of disabled list moves and other cuts. Most notable was the placement of Bobby Seay and Zach Miner on the 15 day disabled list.
Seay has been traveling from doctor to doctor in search of a diagnosis on his balky left arm (UPDATE: It’s a torn rotator cuff. There’s more info at the bottom of the post). Miner’s malady seems less dire but he won’t be ready for the beginning of the season. The moves do open up two spots on the active roster.
Miner’s long relief role could be the destination for the loser of the Nate Robertson-Dontrelle Willis-Jeremy Bonderman battle (assuming Robertson doesn’t get traded). Right handed reliever Robbie Weinhardt also remains in camp meaning he still has a shot. On the left side of things it would see to boost Brad Thomas’ chances of heading to Kansas City for the opener.
Daniel Schlereth, one of the lefties looking for a spot in the pen, was among those cut today. Scherleth was optioned along with Wilkin Ramirez to Toledo. Enrique Gonzalez, Phil Dumatrait, and Max St. Pierre were sent to minor league camp.
UPDATE: The injury to Bobby Seay is a torn rotator cuff. The plan is for Seay to try and rehab the injury and avoid surgery if at all possible. While the Tigers have other lefty options, it really is a blow to Seay who is a free agent after this year and will likely have his open market value severely hampered due to the injury.
Damon and his homers
Much has been made about Johnny Damon’s offensive numbers being inflated by the new Yankee Stadium. Damon matched his career high of 24 homers last year at the age of 36. He also posted the highest slugging percentage of his career and with 17 of his homers coming at home he clearly benefitted from the short porch. How might the move to a much more spacious Comerica Park effect Damon’s 2010 production?
Using the ever-valuable Hit Tracker we can see exactly where each of Damon’s homers landed in 2009. But with a little image manipulation we can overlay Damon’s homer onto Comerica Park’s dimensions and get a feel for the impact of his new home park would have on his production.
Maybe that helped us
Thanks to Jason Beck for tweeting the line of the day. Dave Dombrowski was talking about Johnny Damon and the White Sox interest and offered up this gem. Dombrowski also confirmed that the Tigers have an offer out to Damon, and that he expects the saga to end, but that isn’t nearly as entertaining.
Because the centerfielder has to leadoff
With spring training underway there has been a flood of news bubbling up from Lakeland (and of course there are those pesky Johnny Damon rumors). But one that caught my eye was Jim Leyland’s dismissal of Scott Sizemore as the number two hitter. Somewhat understandably I suppose he doesn’t want rookies batting in the top two spots . But why pencil in Austin Jackson as the leadoff hitter in the first place?
Jackson certainly has a number of tools and is deservedly ranked on many top 100 prospect lists. Plate discipline hasn’t been one of those strengths though. He has a respectable .356 OBP as a minor leaguer, but he also fanned 2.3 times for every walk he took.
Sizemore’s greatest asset is his bat. He has maintained a .383 OBP throughout his minor league career supported by a .305 batting average and drawing walks in 13% of his plate appearances. His K/BB ratio is 1.3.
I won’t pretend to know who will have the better season and who will adjust quicker to big league pitching. But based on all the available data it would point to Sizemore having the better chance at putting up at least a league average on base percentage. The difference though in Jim Leyland’s mind is that Jackson plays center and accordingly he should hit leadoff so he can make things happen.
I couch this all in the fact that I don’t really believe lineups make that big of a difference, and Leyland’s quotes on pitcher and catcher reporting day probably mean even less. But it a suspicious thought process where Jackson has the leadoff spot to lose while Sizemore is pushed to the lower rungs of the lineup.
Photo Credit: Roger DeWitt (hueytaxi on Flickr)
Report: Verlander inks 5 year deal
The Detroit Tigers and Justin Verlander have agreed to a 5 year contract worth $80 million according to Larry Lage of the AP. Verlander was at the Tigers Lakeland facility working out earlier today. The deal locks up the ace through the 2014 season and it bests the 5 year $78 million deal that Felix Hernandez received earlier this month.
A long an expensive contract for any player, and pitchers in particular, is a risk. But there are certain players that are worth a gamble. Verlander had 2 years until free agency where if he continues to perform he would have netted a deal well in excess of $100 million. The Tigers secured his first 3 years of free agency at what will hopefully be a bargain.
The Hernandez comparisons are especially germane, and if you like the King Felix signing the Verlander one is just as palatable. Verlander has been at least an $11 million pitcher in each of his 4 years and with his big season in 2009 he has produced $80 million in value for the Tigers. He was likely to make about $8-9 million in 2010 regardless. He guaranteed himself an additional 4 years and $70 million.
While I think that Hernandez should get more because he is 3 years younger and if I had to pick one, I’d pick Hernandez, both are exceptional pitchers with similarly impressive resumes. I don’t want to get into a Felix/Justin debate. They are both studs and a difference of a couple million over 5 years isn’t really a difference at all.
I am concerned about Verlander’s workload the past few seasons, and last year in particular. He didn’t seem to suffer any consequences though and the hope is that JV is one of those freaks. The upside is that the contract expires when Verlander is only 31 meaning that like Cabrera, the Tigers have locked him up for his peak years.
Photo credit: Hueytaxi on flickr – photo taken February 3rd, 2010
Blank Page Monday
The forum is yours today. Care to debate the merits of Johnny Damon in a Tigers uniform? Go for it. How about an extension for Verlander? Have at it. Are you going to spring training this year? What games are you targeting when single game tickets go on sale March 6th? If you’re a fantasy baseball player what do you think about Bloomberg Sports new product? Did you know it is NASA week in Michigan? It’s a blank page Monday. Fill it up.
Perusing PECOTA
Baseball Prospectus released the first run of their 2010 PECOTA numbers this week, which makes for much fun in the stat-centric baseball community. PECOTA differentiates itself from many of the other predictors by finding pools of comparable players to make their predictions. While the numbers are premium content (and can also be found in the printed annual), I will share a few of the items that jumped out at me about the Tigers.
The system puts the Tigers at 78-84 which is 3rd place in the AL Central behind the division leading Twins (83-79) and the second place White Sox (80-82). The Tigers run prevention is pegged at 2nd in the division at 776 runs allowed; the White Sox are first at 751. But an offense full of questions from young and old players alike is expected to be the division’s worst.
Trying to balance
You have probably noticed things have been very quiet around here. I normally find ways to generate a number of posts even when the news cycle lulls. That hasn’t happened here since the winter meetings. I’m not sure when that is going to change. I know you don’t come here to read about me, you come to read about and discuss the Tigers, so I’ll keep this short. But I feel I owe all of you an explanation.
The winter meetings and most importantly the blockbuster trade hit me hard. As a fan I was quite frankly bummed out and as a blogger I was worn out. Put the two together and the last thing I wanted to do was talk about baseball and the Tigers. This was a new sensation. This freed up at least 8-10 hours a week that I backfilled by spending more time with my family, and taking a much more active role as husband and father. It turns out I really like those roles.
My family sacrifices quite a bit to this blog. We take vacations only where there is wireless. I rush putting the kids to bed during the season so I can watch the game and moderate comments. I don’t have a lot of meaningful conversations in the evening with my wife during the summer months. Throw in the fact that I end up sleeping only 4-5 hours a night and stop working out completely and it isn’t a healthy lifestyle.
Now that the focus is on the 2010 season, the juices are starting to flow again. But the time still isn’t there. My day job has taken a turn where that is consuming more hours than ever before, and now that I want to write I have even less time to do it.
What I’m saying is that I need to figure out where this blog fits into my life while keeping the things most important to me in the forefront. It will be a work in progress. You will likely see more posts in the coming weeks than you have in the past month. I don’t want to overpromise anything, but considering how dead things have been the goal isn’t that lofty.
Thanks for your patience and understanding.
Tigers find enough in the cushions for Valverde
The Tigers today managed to scrounge up $23 million and invested that in Jose Valverde. The deal is reportedly 2 years and $14 million plus a $9 million option for a 3rd year. For a team looking to be more fiscally responsible and acquire cheap young high end talent to build for the future this move makes no sense.
Valverde is a pretty good pitcher. He fans better than a batter an inning with moderate control making him a 3.47 FIP pitcher for his career. He also brings some experience to a very very young bullpen. There might be some value in that. In short, the Tigers are better than they were yesterday. But…
Continue reading Tigers find enough in the cushions for Valverde