Monthly Archives: May 2008

2008 Season

The 3rd inning – 2008

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Last year Sam Hoff started breaking down the season into 18 games segments, each representing 1/9th of the season, or an “inning.” Here is the 3rd inning report.

The 3rd Inning is over.

Each 18 games represent 1 inning of a baseball season. The Tigers record for the first 3 innings in 2008:

                                         Starters:         Bullpen:
    W-L   RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L-IP-   ERA     W-L-S-ERA
1:  6-12  74 -112    15-10-262/345/404    3-9- 96.2-5.96    3-3-3-5.28 
2:  9-9   98 -87     21- 6-261/350/426    5-8-105.2-5.11    4-1-2-3.61
3:  8-10  89 -75     19- 2-275/326/442    8-5-109.2-4.19    0-5-4-3.83

In the 3rd inning the Tigers endured a 5-game losing streak. They have now had at least a 5-game losing streak in every inning. The optimist in me says that 23-31 matches the record the 2006 AL Champs had during the last third of that campaign. The realist in me says that the team just plays bad baseball and could very easily end the 2008 campaign losing more games than they win.

Based on Pythagorean theory, the 3rd inning should of yielded a record of 10 or 11 wins, but a 1-4 record in 1-run games, an 0-5 bullpen, and 19-3 win which blows Pythagorean off balance means only 8 wins. The team is now in 4th place and 7.0 games back.

The offense, a unit, is still not performing at their career levels. Only 2 stolen bases in the last 18 games indicate that the team is in too much of a station to station mode. Best performances were by Magglio (3-11-368/419/603), Thames (3-10-259/310/704), and Cabrera (2-9-333/387/500). Guys who are struggling are Granderson (1-7-269/275/358-1bb-11Ks), Sheffield (1-6-234/294/362), and Raburn (0-0-160/192/240-25abs). Inge’s line (1-7-188/188/438 – 32abs) indicates that he is swinging for the downs which is not his best suit.

The starters were much improved in the 3rd inning. Verlander (1-1-1.89) had his best performance. Galarraga (2-1-3.98), Robertson (2-1-4.74), and Rogers (2-1-5.24) each won 2 games. Bonderman (1-1-4.63) is still searching for consistency.

The bullpen had pretty good statistics (3.83era- 45 hits in 49.1 innings), but did go 0-5 as a group. Some of that could be due to the offense not scoring late in tight games. Zach Miner pitched a scoreless 10.1 innings and Freddy Dolsi had a 1.12era in 8 innings yet somehow each of these guys got a loss. Cruceta was bad as he had 2 loses giving up 9 hits and 7 walks in 7.2 innings (4.70era). Todd Jones knew when to give up runs as he was 3/3 in save opportunities but had a 7.50era in 6 innings.

I am presently watching the Tigers start the 4th inning by possibly getting shutout for the 9th time this year. It is NOW time to hit the panic button. I think Jim Leyland senses that. If the next 2 innings aren’t very good, I think the unbelievable will happen as the Tigers will become sellers at the trade deadline.

2008 Season, Minors

Tigers Minor League Wrap 5-31-08

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Toledo 3 Indianapolis 4
Matt Joyce homered and drove in 2. Brent Clevlen doubled, singled, and walked twice and is now sporting a 320/405/572 line. Chris Lambert allowed 3 runs on 5 hits, a walk, and 5 K’s in 6 innings.

Altoona 3 Erie 8
Max St. Pierre homered twice. Justin Justice, Ryan Roberson, Wil Rhymes, and Max Leon had 2 hit games. Josh Rainwater allowed 3 runs over 5 innings.

Altoona 6 Erie 5 (8 innings)
Danny Worth went 3 for 4. Justin Justice was 1 for 2 with a walk. Matt Righter allowed 5 runs on 5 hits, 2 walks, and 2 K’s in 4.2 innings. Anthony Tomey took the loss allowing 1 run in 3 innings.

Lakeland 10 Dunedin 7
Jeramy Laster, Cale Iorg, Lou Ott, and Pedro Cotto all went deep for Lakeland. James Skelton was 1 for 3 with 2 walks. Jordan Tata struggled allowing 3 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks in 3 innings with 3 K’s. Ramon Garcia allowed 3 runs, 1 earned, in 5 innings of relief work.

South Bend 5 West Michigan 1
Cory Middleton and Chris Carlson had the only 2 hits for the Caps. Carlson’s was a homer accounting for the only run. Brandon Hamilton allowed 2 runs on 3 hits, 3 walks, and 4 K’s in 4 innings. Matt Hoffman made an appearance in relief and allowed an unearned run while fanning 4 in 1.2 innings.

2008 Season, Game Post

Game 55: Tigers at Mariners

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PREGAME: Ah, Fox Sports and national TV means most of you will be blacked out. That’s too bad because the pitching match-up of Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez could be a good one.

Hernandez has a 3.60 ERA and is fanning 7.4 per nine innings. He’s had some control issues allowing 5 walks in 2 of the last 3 games. So his pitch count can get elevated around the 6th inning.

DET @ SEA, Saturday, May 31, 2008 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

POSTGAME: Hey look, another shut out. More defensive miscues. It’s your 2008 Tigers.

Felix Hernandez stymied the Tigers and only allowed 2 hits and no walks. The biggest indication of the Tigers woes today was Placido Polanco striking out 3 times.

Verlander gave up a couple first inning runs as he struggled with his command early on. He loaded the bases with one out and looked like he may get out of it when Granderson made a diving play and Jose Lopez forgot to tag up. But a jam shot single plated two and that would be all the Mariners would need.

They’d get two more in the 4th inning when the Tigers decided to trade a couple outs for runs. With a suicide squeeze attempt in the works, Verlander intentionally bounced a curve ball. Pudge blocked it but couldn’t find the handle and the run scored.

Later Edgar Renteria biffed an inning ending double play ball on the exchange and another run scored.

And Aquilino Lopez wasn’t very good after recording 2 outs.

And Jim Leyland got ejected on a call that even had Granderson arguing.

2008 Season, Defense

Guillen to left field?

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The Tigers new left fielder is Marcus Thames, except for when it’s Carlos Guillen? Guillen has been taking flyballs in left and it’s another way to keep his bat in the lineup while trying to find a place where his glove doesn’t hurt the defense too much – at least that’s the story.

Out of all the “drastic” moves so far this one reeks the most of desperation. Guillen has no experience playing left field. None. He’s struggled at positions he’s familiar with so why move him somewhere he isn’t comfortable. Meanwhile you have another defensive liability in the infield who has experience in the outfield – Miguel Cabrera. Admittedly he isn’t a good outfielder either, and he’s been looking decent at first, but why not move Cabrera to the outfield?

Or why not move Guillen to DH?

Guillen to left field? It’s a possibility, Leyland says | Freep.com | Detroit Free Press

2008 Season, Managing & Strategy, Pitching

Willis being mixed into rotation

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It’s been a couple weeks since Dontrelle Willis came off the disabled list. He’s made all of one appearance. That will change this week when he splits a start with splits a start with Armando Galarraga.

Willis will pitch the first 4 to 5 innings and Galarraga will pitch the rest. It’s an unorthodox move to be sure.

The fact of the matter is Willis can’t not pitch for the team. To consider Willis a sunk cost 6 innings into a 3 year deal is wildly premature so they have to find a way to work him in. At the same time he needs to work on his control issues and only so much can be accomplished in side sessions. This gives him a chance at an extended outing.

Initially this doesn’t appear to be a permanent move:

“Willis is not taking Galarraga’s place as we speak,” Leyland said. “I’m just trying to figure out a way to get him out there (and) how we need to use him if he eventually is going to move back into the rotation permanently.”

This does effectively reduce the bullpen by a pitcher (which can probably be done regardless). It also means that the Tigers are only carrying one lefty in the pen in the form of Bobby Seay.

2008 Season, Managing & Strategy, Offense

McClendon- “batting average is the most overrated statistic”

Hitting philosophy

Hitting coach Lloyd McClendon said runs scored, followed by on-base percentage, are the most important statistics.

“Batting average is the most overrated statistic in baseball,” McClendon said. “Pete Rose told me, ‘When you are scoring runs, you are doing the job.’

I don’t have a lot to comment on here, but I thought the quote was very noteworthy and that it would make sabermetricians smile.

Earlier in the season we saw that the Tigers were being more patient than they had ever been, and it looked to be a philosophical shift. But with the offense sputtering they’ve gone a little more aggressive (or are being pitched more aggressively) and the walks have gone down.

In April the Tigers were walking 4.36 times per game and the team had a .261 batting average and .355 OBP. In May the walks per game dropped to 2.58 and while the team batting average is now .266, the OBP is down to .336.

2008 Season, Injuries, Managing & Strategy

Shuffling the deck and rehab news

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A cornucopia of Tigers news that has come out today. Jim Leyland is prepared to make some changes, even if it means hurting some feelings. The skip says:

“So I’m going to change some things around here and see what happens. I think that’s important. As I said, I don’t know if it’s going to work. I don’t know if it’s going to make people angry, but that’s the way it goes.

“I don’t mean for this to sound negative, I don’t mean it that way, but this isn’t about feelings. It’s beyond worrying about egos. This is about doing the job. I’m going to try some stuff.

“We have a great group of guys and I think they’ll understand. They might not agree with it, but the manager has to do what he thinks is best for the team. If this team is what I think it is, they’ll go along with it.

“We have to get it rolling somehow,” Leyland said. “I’m not really a 40-game guy, or a June 1 guy, but you can’t just sit there when it’s not working.

“My general manager has given me a hell of a team here. I haven’t really coached it to the right flow. But I’m not going to sit still. I don’t want to be patient to a fault.”

One thing you can’t accuse Leyland of this season is being complacent. He’s shuffling batting orders, moving people aroudn the diamond defensively, giving pitchers different roles in the pen. The hope is that something sticks. Some of the moves coming out are:

Miggy drops to 6th

Jim Leyland dropped Miguel Cabrera to the sixth spot in the lineup. I have to believe that this move is more psychological that strategic. Let me rephrase that. I believe that the implications of this move will be more psychological than strategic.

Lineup configuration has a pretty limited impact on run scoring. Cabrera hasn’t put up his typical numbers, but has still been an offensive force. He has struggled with RISP to the tune of a 639 OPS. If there is a thought that he’s pressing, perhaps moving him down will take pressure off of him to drive in runs. I don’t really believe any of that and chalk it up more to sample size issues. I’m somewhat supported in this because he has a .903 OPS with men on.

Still odd that Cabrera is productive and gets moved from 5th to 6th while Sheffield was allowed to flounder at the 3 spot.

Rotation flip-flop

With the off day yesterday Leyland is flipping Jeremy Bonderman and Kenny Rogers in the rotation. I’m guessing the move is 2-fold. First, Rogers struggled a little in his last start against the M’s. He allowed 8 hits, 3 walks, and 4 runs in 5.1 innings on May 21st. Second, Rogers is a Cy Young pitcher in Oakland. In 45 career starts he is 25-4 with a 3.46 ERA.

Supposedly there is another move coming with the pitching staff.

Rodney and Zumaya news

The news out of Lakeland is encouraging for Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney. Both will be embarking on rehab assignments soon. Rodney is likely heading to Toledo while Zumaya will stay in Lakeland to start.

I’d guess that Rodney is probably a week or two away if he is heading to the Mud Hens. But given his problems last year and this year, I’d still be surprised if he made it through the rest of the season.

Regardless, barring setbacks both would be joining the Tigers within a month or so because a rehab assignment can only last 30 days.

2008 Season, Minors

Tigers Minor League Wrap 5-30-08

Toledo 2 Indianapolis 3
Brent Clevlen homered, singled, and walked and has pushed his average to .313. Mike Hollimon was 1 for 4. Matt Joyce went 0 for 4 with 3 K’s. Yorman Bazardo allowed 2 runs on 6 hits in 5 innings, walking none and fanning 3. Denny Bautista allowed an unearned run on 1 hit and 1 walk in 2 innings of work. He threw 27 pitches, 17 for strikes.

Altoona 8 Erie 6
Jeff Frazier went 3 for 5, as did Ryan Roberson. Wilkin Ramirez and Danny Worth each had 2 hits, including a homer for Worth. Lucas French allowed 8 runs on 12 hits and 3 walks in 6.2 innings.

Lakeland 11 Dunedin 5
Scott Sizemore and Lou Ott each had 3 hits. Brennan Boesch homered, tripled, and drove in 4. Cale Iorg and Jeremy Laster had 2 hits each.

South Bend 6 West Michigan 1
Roger Tomas went 2 for 3. Casper Wells hit a solo homer for the only Caps run. Jon Kibler allowed 4 runs on 6 hits in 7.1 innings while fanning 8 and walking none.

2008 Season, Game Post, Uncategorized

Game 54: Tigers at Mariners

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PREGAME: Good old game 54. The one-third mark of the season. Yeah.

The Tigers journey to Seattle to take on the Mariners. Seattle snapped a 7 game losing streak when they took the last 2 games against Boston.

Detroit will face Carlos Silva who they bludgeoned to the tune of 7 runs in 4.1 innings when they faced him in Detroit. Things didn’t get better in his next start when he also allowed 7 runs to the Yankees.

Taking the mound for the Tigers is Nate Robertson. His last start came in the 19-3 drubbing of the Twins. His quality start in the effort was the start of one full turn through the rotation with quality starts for all.

Robertson’s last start in Safeco was in September 2006 when he pitched 7 innings and allowed 1 run.

DET @ SEA, Friday, May 30, 2008 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

POSTGAME: I love Carlos Silva. Another 7 run outing, this one didn’t even last an inning for him. Of course the Tigers didn’t score after that first inning, but it proved to be more than enough.

Robertson allowed his typical 4 runs. Rod Allen said in the postgame show that Nate was battling an illness picked up after leaving LA.

The bullpen was nearly flawless for 2.1 innings with a double off Freddy Dolsi being the only blemish. Zach Miner and Todd Jones threw 1-2-3 innings with Miner dropping his ERA under 6.

Leyland managed this pretty aggressively at the end with Clete Thomas coming in to play left, Pudge moving behind the plate, and Inge moving to third.

Links

links for 2008-05-29

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2008 Season, Roster Management

Joyce down, Clete up

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The Tigers have optioned Matt Joyce back to Toledo and have called up Clete Thomas.

I suppose this is because they have the left handed option with Jeff Larish on the roster now to provide some power. And as Jason Beck noted, they want Joyce to play everyday and with Thames getting left field duties, that opportunity wouldn’t be there. But it makes you wonder why they wouldn’t want Thomas to play everyday?

Joyce’s swing appeared to get a little long the last few games. He fanned 4 times on Tuesday night. He swung through fastballs early in the count and then was finished off with breaking balls on the inner half he couldn’t deal with. So it appears that even if there wasn’t a book on him before this series, there certainly is now.

Still, he provided some nice pop on a team that was popless while playing some solid defense.

2008 Season, Managing & Strategy, Pitching

Unintentional Consequences

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As I watched intentional walks by Tigers pitchers lead to runs on both Sunday and Monday this week, it seemed to be an all to familiar story. It seemed that the Tigers strategy of intentional walks was failing with remarkable regularity. So I went back to each of the 19 IBB’s the Tigers issued (that’s what happens on west coast trips when I’m up late) to see how they fared.

The table below has all the gory details: Continue reading Unintentional Consequences →