Yearly Archives: 2006

Pitching

Handling with care

1 Comment

In the past I’ve expressed concern about the workloads Jim Leyland may impose on his young starters. That’s why I’m slightly reassured after seeing this article in the Lakeland Ledger. Leyland is quoted:

“We’re gonna watch them very closely to make sure everything’s all right,” Leyland said.

“You have to protect young pitchers. At the same time, we have to get them ready for the season,” Leyland said.

The good news is that he wants to protect the young pitchers. Why my fears are only slightly eased is that he doesn’t talk about limiting workload within individual games. While I know there is debate around the evidence, I happen to believe there is some truth to the Baseball Prospectus methods around pitcher abuse.

The research presented here has shown, in essence, that not all pitches are created equal. It is the high pitch count outings that represent the greatest risk for both short-term ineffectiveness, and long-term potential for injury.

While Leyland is prepared to exercise caution, I’m not entirely sure what his view of caution is.

Keeping them fresh

What I do like about what Leyland said is trying to keep his starters stronger in the second half.

“It’s not always the best pitching staff that wins,” Leyland commented, “it’s the healthiest.”

“One thing we might do is bring somebody up (from the minors) for just one start,” Leyland said.

“That way, we could back up the whole rotation and give everybody an extra day off when we thought they needed it.”

The first 4 spots in the Tigers rotation were very stable the first half of the year. With the 2006 season having 3-4 viable candidates for one spot in the rotation, it would be a great way to get more pitchers more experience. All the pitchers in question (Verlander/Zumaya/Ledezma/Colon) are already on the 40 man roster so there wouldn’t be major roster implications to call someone up.

Spring Training

Spring Training Linkfest

2 Comments

The first day of spring training is complete, and it is so nice to see stories about baseball. It’s February and optimism time for Detroit Tiger fans.

  • Danny Knobler has a blog over at Mlive. His first report finds: a moratorium on talk of last year out of respect to Trammell, Pudge is more relaxed and 6-8 pounds heavier than last year, the 25 man roster will have 12 pitchers, and those pitchers will be taking grounders every day.
  • Jason Beck talked with Pudge. Rodriguez plans on playing 140 games this season.
  • While not a spring training article, Baseball Think Factory launched a new blog called Baseball Centrist. If you want to keep track of everything being written about the Tigers main competitors, this is the place to go.
  • Rob Parker wrote something for the Detroit News today. A couple of blogs have already weighed in on the article. I’m not going to respond or even link to the article. It is such a poor piece of writing that it doesn’t warrant a rebuttal. Columnists like Parker write things to stir the pot and get people riled up. This was such garbage it doesn’t deserve the attention.

detroit tigers, baseball

Spring Training

Dombrowski gets it

2 Comments

All the Nook Logan-Curtis Granderson job battle articles have clearly raised my hackles. Missing from the stories are any quotes from the actual decision makers – until now. Crystal Evola has this from Dave Dombrowski:

“Curtis Granderson, I think, is ready to play in the big leagues after what he did last year at the minor-league level and coming up to the big leagues,” Dombrowski said. “Nook showed some fl ashes, and we all know what an exciting player he can be, what his speed brings to a lineup offensively and defensively, he brings a dimension that not many players in baseball bring.

“So, you have some different alternatives. It’s a situation where one of them can win the position outright, you also have the potential, because Nook’s a better hitter from the right-hand side than he is the left-hand side at this point, that he could actually platoon, and also because Curtis Granderson can play left field or right field that you could put them both in the lineup at one time and DH one of the other guys or give him a day off. A lot of that will be determined in spring training by their advancement and how they continue to progress.

Maybe I’ve got my happy glasses on, but here’s what I take from that quote:

  • Recognition for what Logan can do, which is run and wreak havoc
  • While the job isn’t necessarily Granderson’s, it sounds more like Logan will have to play his way in.
  • There are other options than one or the other. There could be days when both play
  • Recognition that Logan can’t hit as a lefty

I know one could argue that Logan shouldn’t be taking at-bats away from anybody. However if he gets the occasional start to rest somebody – even Curtis – that isn’t such a bad thing.

detroit tigers, baseball

Injuries, Spring Training

Four warming words

1 Comment

Pitchers and catchers report, one of the best combinations of 4 words in the english language. Pitchers and catchers report is probably up there in the 4 word phrase pantheon with on the ensuing kickoff and in one shining moment. The simple phrase signals the start of spring training, and finally it is here.

Tomorrow morning the Detroit Tigers will open camp in Lakeland, and we’ll probably have our first reports from the media. In the coming days we’ll here from Pudge Rodriguez and probably read in great detail about what sort of physique he’s sporting. We’ll hear from newcomers Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones. We’ll hear from rookie hopefuls Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya as they battle for a rotation & roster spot in their first trip to the big league camp.

And we’ll most definitely hear from Jeremy Bonderman who was kept off the World Baseball Classic team by the Tigers. Detroit has decided to exercise their right to protect the young ace citing his elbow tenderness in the second half of last year.

“I think he’s going to be fine,” Dombrowski said. “There’s no reason to believe he won’t be fine. We just can’t take any chances with that.”

A very prudent move by the Tigers. Now if only they could/would exercise the same provisions with Pudge Rodriguez, Carlos Guillen, and Magglio Ordonez.
baseball, detroit tigers

2006 Season, Offense, Statistics, Uncategorized

Playing with PECOTA part 2

1 Comment

I’ve already scanned the PECOTA projections for Tiger pitchers and highlighted what I thought was most interesting. Now we’ll do the hitters.

Curtis Granderson

Lee has already done the comparison of who PECOTA thinks should be starting in centerfield for Detroit. And it has been enough of a theme here that I think I’ve beat the horse to death. But PECOTA is a fan of Granderson. Some of his more modern day comps are Luis Gonzalez, Reggie Sanders, Mel Hall, Greg Briley, Leon Durham, and Bobby Abreu. PECOTA sees him peaking in 2008 with minimal fall off in subsequent years. While his value is probably slightly inflated by his small sample defensive stardom, the kid looks like he’s for real.

Nook Logan

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that PECOTA has Logan’s breakout rate at 41% and his improve rate at 63%. So the system does project that Nook will very likely be better next year.
Continue reading Playing with PECOTA part 2 →

2006 Season, Pitching, Statistics

Playing with PECOTA

5 Comments

Baseball Prospectus has released their PECOTA player cards, and a half hour of clicking through all of the Detroit Tigers there are definitely some interesting highlights. But before we get into the neat stuff, a little bit about PECOTA. PECOTA is a projection system based on finding comparable players. Similarity is calculated based on performance, usage (playing time), and body similarities (handedness, body type). The system then uses the pool of comparable players (which could be as many as 100) to project what the player in question will do. One of the data points available is the similarity index. The higher the score, the better the pool of players matches the player in question. A score over 50 is pretty good, and less than 20 is pretty bad.

Now PECOTA is for BP subscribers only, so I won’t be laying out all the stats provided. I will just be hitting some highlights. (if you want to see what the cards look like, the White Sox are offered for free.

Jeremy Bonderman

PECOTA is pretty high on Bonderman, and a quick glance at his comparables shows why. Some of the pitchers on his list include Joe Coleman, John Smoltz, Jake Peavy, Tom Seaver, and Catfish Hunter. His improve rate for next year is 77%, with no discernible decline until 2010.

Franklyn German

PECOTA isn’t so enamored with the other pitcher in the Jeff Weaver deal. His attrition rate is as high as his improvement rate, and his collapse rate is higher than his breakout rate.
Continue reading Playing with PECOTA →

Contracts

Tigers sign 8

1 Comment

The Tigers signed 8 players today, bringing the total number of players signed to 25. Five of the eight are sporting their first big league contract. The players are:

  • Eulogio De La Cruz
  • Preston Larrison
  • Humberto Sanchez
  • Jordan Tata
  • Mark Woodyard
  • Joel Zumaya
  • Tony Giarratano
  • Brent Clevlen
Contracts, Defense, Statistics, Uncategorized

Quick Hits

4 Comments

Some brief notes an links as I prepare to have 14 preschoolers over for a birthday party tomorrow…

Monroe Re-ups

The Detroit Tigers avoided arbitration hearings completely this year with Craig Monroe now under contract. He signed for one year and $2.8 million. A fair deal all around, and the two sides essentially split the difference from their initial offers.

Defensive Wrap-Ups

I’ve been doing quite a bit of defensive comparisons lately, and using a bunch of metrics. Coincidentally there were a couple of articles today summarizing the various measures. Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts did a piece for SI outlining the quest for the perfect defensive measure.

In the same vein, David Gassko of the Hardball Times compared the various metrics in articles located here and here. (via Baseball Musings)

Granderson goes home

A nice article about Curtis Granderson visiting his middle school alma mater.

Tiger Stadium rotting and rocking

With Tiger Stadium playing host to Bud Bowl (a big party/concert) over Super Bowl weekend there have been a couple articles about it’s current state. ESPN had a long piece about the Stadium, and the lack of events held since the final game.

The Bud Bowl is one proposal that the city did approve. Rottach said Detroit is charging Anheuser-Busch $40,000 to rent the stadium. More important than the money, though, was the thoroughness of Anheuser-Busch’s proposal, which included a commitment to return the stadium to the exact specifications it had before.

Earlier in the week the Free Press ran a story, complete with pictures, about how run down the stadium had become. It included a picture of a tree growing in the stands, and part of a wall crumbling.

detroit, detroit tigers, baseball, tiger stadium

Defense, Players, Statistics, Uncategorized

Shelton Game

6 Comments

Remember when it seemed like Chris Shelton didn’t have a position? In fact one local columnist didn’t include Shelton in last year’s Top 10 Tiger prospects because:

Shelton does not have a position and is unathletic. Last season, when he did get to play in the major leagues and rehab assignment at Toledo, he did not sting the ball. He hit well in arizona, but the caliber of competition was down this year.

Well it turns out that Shelton can play first base. According to PMR, he was a pretty average fielder last year, and given his offensive production, average defense is quite sufficient. (While he made more outs than expected, he fell in the middle of the pack). What’s more is that he was a superior defender compared to Carlos Pena.

Player InPlay Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Difference
Chris B Shelton 2337 152 146.52 0.065 0.063 0.00234
Carlos Pena 1363 98 105.67 0.072 0.078 -0.00563

Similar to what I did in the Granderson/Logan comparison post, the numbers were interesting enough that I wanted to compare range stats between the two.

Category Pena Shelton
Innings 429.1 738.1
Zone Rating .798 .857
Range Factor 9.50 10.21
FRAA -2 0

Shelton comes out on top is every category. I’m not sure if everyone was just flat wrong in Shelton’s ability, or if he improved his game through a ton of hard work, but the results are encouraging. Now what isn’t included in first basemen range is the footwork around the bag. I’m not sure how it could even be quantified, but just from watching that seems to be an area where Pena excels.

While I still want to see Pena get at-bats, it is becoming more and more difficult to find reasons to take Shelton out of the lineup.
detroit tigers, chris shelton, carlos pena, baseball

Minors

Catch Anyone?

5 Comments

There was a surprising quote from Detroit Tigers assistant GM Al Avila in the Toledo Blade.

“Within the Detroit Tigers organization, catcher is probably our weakest position,” Avila admitted.

Okay, so that wasn’t the suprising part.

“We do have the best catcher in the organization coming to Toledo in Max St. Pierre.

“He’s a year at the most away from being a big-league catcher. I don’t know if he will be a regular, but he will be a regular if he hits. Defensively, he can do it. He can catch and throw, and he plays with a high energy level.”

Max St. Pierre, who will be 26 in April and hasn’t had an OPS over 700 since he was a 20 year old in West Michigan (it was 701 that year). While the fact that he may be the Tigers best catcher in the organization is disheartening, the fact he’s on the brink of the majors is surprising to say the least.

Indicators like this go a long ways towards explaining why the Tigers drafted Chris Robinson in the 3rd round and have invited him to the Major League camp during spring training. Baseball America prefers Robinson to St. Pierre ranking him as the best defensive catcher in the organization.
baseball, detroit tigers

Defense, Players, Statistics

Defending Center

11 Comments

A couple weeks ago I wrote a post making the case why Curtis Granderson should be the starting centerfielder for the Tigers over Nook Logan. The the bulk of the agrument was based on Granderson’s offensive superiority. I intentionally didn’t delve into defense for a couple reasons. First, defensive metrics are tricky. It’s rare that you can get all the metrics to agree on any given player. Second, that problem becomes magnified when you’re dealing with small sample sizes as is the case with Curtis Granderson. However, there are enough metrics out there that we can take a look, as long as we take a grain of salt along with it.

Baseball Musings has posted the PMR for centerfielders. I lifted the following table, and included some of the prominent centerfielders in the game. Please note, this isn’t a leaderboard, but a sampling of some who ranked near the top.

Player InPlay Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Difference
Curtis Granderson 1044 119 110.91 0.114 0.106 0.00775
Andruw Jones 4309 365 337.56 0.085 0.078 0.00637
Jim Edmonds 3538 319 297.13 0.090 0.084 0.00618
Aaron Rowand 4128 388 362.99 0.094 0.088 0.00606
Nook P Logan 2730 282 270.92 0.103 0.099 0.00406

Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Centerfielders
Continue reading Defending Center →