I’ve already scanned the PECOTA projections for Tiger pitchers and highlighted what I thought was most interesting. Now we’ll do the hitters.
Lee has already done the comparison of who PECOTA thinks should be starting in centerfield for Detroit. And it has been enough of a theme here that I think I’ve beat the horse to death. But PECOTA is a fan of Granderson. Some of his more modern day comps are Luis Gonzalez, Reggie Sanders, Mel Hall, Greg Briley, Leon Durham, and Bobby Abreu. PECOTA sees him peaking in 2008 with minimal fall off in subsequent years. While his value is probably slightly inflated by his small sample defensive stardom, the kid looks like he’s for real.
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that PECOTA has Logan’s breakout rate at 41% and his improve rate at 63%. So the system does project that Nook will very likely be better next year.
A .350ish OBA and 450ish slugging percentage would certainly be acceptable, provided he can do it for at least 125 games. Guillen’s similarity index is only 44, so the comparables aren’t great, and one of the top comps was Ken Camminit who probably didn’t follow a natural pattern.
Big things aren’t predicted for Infante with a projected line of 249/299/393. However, the player he’s most similar to, Juan Uribe, went on to have a huge season at age 24 hitting 283/327/506.
Here are two PECOTA weighted mean projections:
Player 1: 251/331/474
Player 2: 279/327/464
Player 1 is Marcus Thames and Player 2 is Craig Monroe. The two lines are pretty comparable, but Craig Monroe is due to make $2.5 million more than Thames. For those who have been saying that Thames could provide comparable production, PECOTA certainly is on board with you.
While those are the mean projections, Monroe is looked upon more favorable with the improve/collapse percentages.
We could always add another player into the Player 1/Player 2 mix. Ordonez projected line is 288/350/440, which is certainly decent. It’s also a far cry from a $15 million dollar a year player. His OBA looks good over the next 4 years, but the sub 450 slugging is what’s dissapointing.
Tiger Tales has also compared these 3 players so I won’t repeat that. I will point out though that while Shelton’s overall projections are favorable his top comp is Joe Charboneau.
As you can imagine, PECOTA doesn’t look favorably on catchers in their mid 30′s. It projects seasons similar to worse than what we saw from Rodriguez last year. The good news (I guess) is that his similarity index is only 33, so there isn’t really a population of players that is a good fit.