2014 Playoffs: Coda

It’s with a great deal of angst and frustration that I write this.

Admittedly, I’ve browsed a few articles here and there, and forced myself to stay with sporadic MLB highlights before changing the channel to something less kick me in the gut, but the sting of the 2014 playoffs still remains.

I know you feel it.

As Tigers fanatics, we have entered into that dangerous limbo of good but not great, where expectations crescendo into a World Series or else mentality, and anything less is, well, unacceptable.

I remember seeing empty seats at Braves home playoff games in the 90s, and more recently in Tampa Bay, and thinking what spoiled, thankless punks those fans are.

Now our Tigers fans have not fallen to the same level of apathy; but I can see how that would be easier than the disappointment we are experiencing now.

For a while, early on, this team had it. The 27-12 start was a mix of offense, clutch hitting, and shutdown pitching, from both the starters and relievers. But for some reason, in early May, we lost it, and we spent the rest of the 2014 season looking for it. The talent on this team was so overwhelmingly good, that the Tigers were still able to win the division (I get that the AL Central is weak, but we can only play the schedule as given) even though the club played .500 ball for the final 3/4 of the season. This team lacked leadership and decisiveness at the top, and the lack of those intangibles manifested themselves into a shell of a playoff baseball team over four days in October. That “playoff team” was, unfortunately, exactly what we had come to expect.

And so we’re left to yearn for what could have been, or even worse, to try to ignore the yearning. It wrenches my sports heart, and clouds my ability to enjoy some entertaining baseball being played right now.

But eventually, the pain and disappointment will wear away. I know this from experience.

Somehow, some way, in the not too distant future, the pain will be replaced by hope, excitement, and even blind faith, though those feelings will be just a little bit weaker than this year’s. And so the pattern will continue until we are no longer contenders, or win on the final day of the baseball season.

So says a fan.

 

 

2014 ALDS: Game 3

The Tiger looks about ready to settle down for a long winter’s nap.

Still, there is a game today, and for the sellout crowd who shelled out for tickets, I hope the Tigers don’t go quietly into that nap. Hey, look, there are fans of 22 teams out there who only wish they could watch their teams play today. And the Tigers are actually in a better position, if you can imagine, than the two teams who most experts picked to meet in the World Series, the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Angels, who were both swept in two games at home. Only a late-inning Dodger home run has kept the 2014 ALDS round from having the look of a sweepapalooza.

It’s pointless to give a Game 2 re-crap now, since we’ve all been through it too many times–though that hasn’t stopped Captain Obvious and all his lieutenants in the national media from providing expert opinions which could be summarized as: the Tigers have bullpen problems. Who knew? Although to be fair, the numbers for the consecutive 8th-inning blowups are literally amazing.

Perhaps the most frustrating part of the game, while it was happening, was listening to the TBS announcers more or less call everything in advance. You’ve got to bring Sanchez back out, you can’t go back to what you did yesterday (here comes Chamberlain). The Orioles have 3 outfielders with strong arms, you have to be careful about trying to run on them (there goes Cabrera). Be careful here, you know Delmon Young is going to be going after the first pitch (here comes hanging slider up over the middle of the plate). The Tigers have a very weak bench (Carrera goes stumbling around center; the Tigers end the game with nobody better to send to the plate than Perez-Romine-Suarez).Perhaps must frustrating of all was the repeated line “the Tigers need to play this like it’s an elimination game.”  Brad Ausmus managed the game like it was a mid-season game against the White Sox, “saving” his pitchers when their pitch counts got high, using his “8th-inning guys” because, well, it was the 8th inning, etc.

I think a lot of us, perhaps unfairly, looked forward to the change to the Ausmus regime, thinking we’d get some different approaches, some creativity, some life outside the standard operating procedures. No such luck. I said “perhaps unfairly” because it’s only his first year on the job, at any level. Also–and I think this point is overlooked–he inherited half the coaching staff from the Leyland regime, pitching coach Jeff Jones and bench coach Gene Lamont. If Ausmus is back next season (I would be surprised if he isn’t), I would feel much better if he said OK this is MY staff now and replaced Lamont and Jones, and figured out what the Brad Ausmus way of managing really is.

I know some of us frustrated fans have said we might as well lose today and get it over with. I get the frustration, and there is nothing more wearying than waiting for the inevitable bullpen collapse: you can’t even enjoy being in the lead by 3 runs. Not me though, I’ll be rooting all the way. I think the best chance we have would be for David “Complete Game” Price to show up. And for the bats to not go into hiding like some overly-shy clan of wooden leprechauns.  But if we do have to lose this afternoon, the rascal in me would prefer it goes down like this: Price takes a lead into the 8th, Ausmus pulls him out,  Chamberlain comes in…. Might as well make some heads explode on our way out.

Today’s Donkey-Time Lineup:

  1. Kinsler, 2B
  2. Hunter, RF
  3. Cabrera, 1B
  4. V Martinez, DH
  5. JD Martinez, LF
  6. Avila, C
  7. Castellanos, 3B
  8. Romine, SS
  9. Kelly, CF

Price, P

Forgotten Man: Holaday

 

2014 ALDS: Game 2

Quick (and unusual) turn around for game 2. Which is exactly what we need.

Win this game and we’re going home, tied 1-1, with David Freaking Price pitching game 3. That’s right, DAVID PRICE.

To get us there, Verlander will have to be Playoff Justin, and not 2014 Regular Season Justin. By “Playoff Justin” I mean the guy with a 30-inning scoreless streak in the division series. The guy who still haunts the Oakland A’s. The guy who, time and time again, has put this team on his shoulders and delivered a win when we needed it most. Verlander hasn’t walked a batter over his past two starts, and I think he’s just as sharp today, if not even better.

Rajai Davis still CF. Good for the lineup, not sure if this is good for the defense.

Lots of stats in the Baseball-Reference game preview here.

My pick for player of the game is Kinsler. He’s been a complete player as of late, and I think he sparks the offense today.

Today’s #DoItForTheRotation lineup (with stats v. Wei-Yin Chen). Chen is pretty good, our hitters are better.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B (3 for 10)
2. Torii Hunter, RF (1 for 4)
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B (1 for 4)
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. J.D. Martinez, LF
6. Nick Castellanos, 3B
7. Alex Avila, C
8. Andrew Romine, SS
9. Rajai Davis, CF (1 for 3)

 

2014 ALDS: Game 1 Wrap-Up

I’d love to pretend that I can forget last night’s game, and the complete exposure of every weakness this team has. I’d like to act as if I can brush off the concerns that T Smith nailed in his comment last night, as easily I would sweep aside the fall twigs and leaves on my doorstep.

But that’s not going to happen.

Let’s be candid. Last night sucked.

The Tigers played from behind last night all game, Scherzer failed to pitch to the level of an ace, Hunter couldn’t come up with a big hit, and the bullpen got de—-stroyed.

By any interpretation, this was absolutely the worst possible start to a series we could have hoped for.

But it’s just one game.

Remember when we had the best start to a series we could have possibly hoped for? Up 4 runs in the 8th inning with a 1-0 series lead, on the road? I mean, could we have felt any better then?

This is why winning the division was so important. We can stretch the series out. We get at least one game at home.

More coming soon.

2014 ALDS: Game 1

I had been wondering who, or what, to use for the Game Post picture for today, and then Miguel made it easy. Miguel threw down the gauntlet.

In case you haven’t seen the story yet, when Max Scherzer was going around collecting signatures to receive playoff share money on Wednesday, Cabrera wasn’t interested: “I just want the ring.”

And with those 5 words, the tone for Detoit’s 2014 ALDS has been set. No excuses, no distractions (not even money), nothing will do but the ring.

(Does anyone else find it odd that you actually have to sign up for playoff money? One would think they team would distribute it automatically. I suppose it’s one of those quaint remnants, like golfers having to keep their own scores).

I had just read this article about Cabrera as team leader, with a strange disparity between the headline (“Cabrera Speaks Loudly”) and the content (he is a quiet leader), but Cabrera’s response to the playoff share signup was simultaneously quiet and very, very loud (it’s the top trending topic on Facebook).

*****

The Detroit ALDS Roster has finally been released (the team had been waiting as long as possible to gauge Rajai’s ability to play–they submitted the roster 15 minutes before the 10 am deadline):

PITCHERS (11)

RHP Al Alburquerque
RHP Joba Chamberlain
LHP Phil Coke
LHP Kyle Lobstein
RHP Joe Nathan
RHP Rick Porcello
LHP David Price
RHP Anibal Sanchez
RHP Max Scherzer
RHP Joakim Soria
RHP Justin Verlander

CATCHERS (2)
Alex Avila
Bryan Holaday

INFIELDERS (6) 
1B Miguel Cabrera
3B  Nick Castellanos
2B Ian Kinsler
INF Hernan Perez
INF Andrew Romine
INF Eugenio Suarez

OUTFIELDERS (5)
OF Ezequiel Carrera
OF Rajai Davis
OF Torii Hunter
INF/OF Don Kelly
OF J.D. Martinez

DESIGNATED HITTER (1)
Victor Martinez

There aren’t really any surprises, unless you count leaving out Blaine Hardy, who had a good season, until his last two appearances, in which he was awful. Hernan Perez on the roster means that the team doesn’t foresee any issues with Rajai Davis, which would have resulted in an extra outfielder. Speaking of which, I don’t really trust Carrera as a defensive replacement, but there he is. I was holding out a faint hope for Tyler Collins. (Edit: Ausmus said that Hernan was going to be on the roster regardless; if Rajai wasn’t good to go they would have added Collins and gone 1 short in the bullpen).

Today’s Show-Me-The-Ring Lineup:

  1. Kinsler, 2B
  2. Hunter, RF
  3. Cabrera, 1B
  4. V Martinez, DH
  5. JD Martinez, LF
  6. Avila, C
  7. Castellanos, 3B
  8. Romine, SS
  9. Davis, CF

Scherzer, P

Baseball Reference Game Preview. Baltimore’s Chris Tillman has had a pretty good career against current Tiger hitters: .238 BA against, .671 OPS against. One notable exception has been Miguel Cabrera, who has hit Tillman at .385 with an OPS of 1.159.

The good news is that Max’s numbers have been almost exactly the same against the Orioles: .238 BA against, .663 OPS against. But hold your breath when Nelson Cruz comes to the plate: Cruz hits Scherzer for .381 (.952 OPS), and absolutely bombed him in his one postseason game facing him (2 doubles, a HR, 5 RBI).

Season Series: Detroit 5, Baltimore 1, including a 3-game sweep in Baltimore. (Tillman had only Baltimore win).

Playoffs?! Playoffs?!

Yes, playoffs!

I figured I would throw out a new post for pre-ALDS talk. As you may have heard by now, the Tigers have announced their starting rotation for the playoffs, which goes Scherzer/Verlander/Price/Porcello, ending the speculation/hope of some that they would buck tradition and go with a three-man rotation.

Chris Tillman (13-6, 3.34) is going for Baltimore in the opener, but the Orioles have yet to announce their rotation beyond that.

The actual schedule of the first three games of the series is out:

  • Game 1 – Thu Oct 2 – Camden Yards – 5:37 pm if Royals win wild card, 6:07 pm if A’s win wild card
  • Game 2 – Fri Oct 3   – Camden Yards – 12:07 pm if Giants win wild card, 3:07 pm if Pirates win wild card
  • Game 3 – Sun Oct 5 – Comerica Park – 3:45 pm

Those 3:07 (if Pirates win) and 3:45 games would seem to favor the pitchers, with the odd late-afternoon shadow factor. Sunday would also seem to be courting a little panic in Detroit with the Lions’ home game ending shortly after the Tigers begin.

Tonight the Royals and A’s play their game 163 (otherwise known as the Wild Card game). I’d love to see KC win. Besides representing the much-maligned Central, the A’s just plain got buried by the Angels at the end of the season, and it would be nice to see someone take out the Angels and save Detroit from another horrid LA experience. The Royals seem to have a better chance at that than Oakland. Of course, as I am typing this the Royals just ran into an out from 3rd, not a good sign.

In other Tiger news, Victor Martinez was nominated for the Hank Aaron Award, and Miguel Cabrera was named the AL Player of the Month for September.

 

Game 2014.162: Twins at Tigers

89-72, 1 game up, magic number is 1.

It’s pretty simple here friends. Thanks to the White Sox, the Tigers still control their own destiny, even if those evil baseball schedule makers did force us to end the seasons against the Twins.

Win and we win the division. Lose and we can still win the division, if the Royals lose. If the Royals win, we are playing in Comerica on Monday for the division. Win that, and it’s against the Orioles (on Wed, I think). Lose that, and it’s against the Mariners or Athletics in Detroit on Tues for the right to play in the ALDS.

That’s a pretty messy paragraph, so it would be much preferred that David Price step up and deliver.

David Price has been a front of the rotation pitcher in Detroit, but he hasn’t been an ace. A guy who, on a consistent basis, steps up and stops a losing streak, lets the bullpen rest, and delivers a W. Today is his chance. Last time out Price had a gem working through 8, then was charged with 3 ER in the 9th, and ended up with a no-decision. Note, he’s posting a 1.18 WHIP and .670 OPS against with the Tigers, so some luck has factored into his 3.97 ERA during that time. But Aces make it happen any way they have to.

The Twins send Kyle Gibson to the mound to close out what will be a winning head to head record against the Tigers, no matter what happens today. Gibson is 2-2 against the Tigers this season, but the Tigers have hit him hard, batting .325 with an .826 OPS for a 6.86 ERA. He’s walked 10 Tigers batters in 19 2/3 innings this season, so patience should lead to hittable pitches and walks.

*******

In case you are wondering, the Royals – White Sox starts an hour after the Tigers game, not that will matter…

As I’m sure you’ve seen by now, spark plug Rajai Davis strained his pelvis in the batters box last night (I know that players adjust themselves a lot, but this seems excessive), and is out for a few days. He claims he’d be ready by Thursday, which is when the division series should start. Carrerra gets the start in CF, which is baffling to me, considering the consistently awful defense we see as a team. Ausmus even mentioned the poor defense in his post game interview last night. Kelly also bats left, is a significantly better fielder than Carrera, and gets on base at a better clip (.333 to .300). I just don’t get it.

Baseball Reference Game Preview here.

1. Kinsler, 2B
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 1B
4. Martinez, DH
5. Martinez, LF
6. Avila, C
7. Castellanos, 3B
8. Romine, SS
9. Carrera, CF

Game 2014.161: Twins at Tigers

89-71, 1 game up, magic number is 2.

Alright everybody, get your game faces on. The playoffs start today. We can’t sit around and wait for the Royals to lose the division. We have to take control ourselves.

The task won’t be easy. Even if the opposing team is 22 games under .500.

Here is the Tigers’ record and runs allowed per game against all MLB playoff qualifiers:

Baltimore – 5-1, 3.33
Kansas City – 13-6. 3.47
Los Angeles A – 3-4, 3.71
Oakland – 5-2, 4.14
Pittsburgh – 2-2, 5.25
Los Angeles D – 3-1, 3.75
San Francisco – 1-2, 4.67
(didn’t play Doug Fister’s Nationals, or the Cardinals this year)

Overall that’s 32-18 with 3.82 RAA per game. And we’re scoring 4.86 runs per game. More than a run per game against playoff teams? That is awesome! (Seriously, I’ve never felt better about the playoffs than I do right now).

But for whatever reason, the 2014 Twins play the Tigers like no one else. Here are the same numbers against the Twins:

Minnesota – 8-9, 6.29 runs allowed per game, 5.65 runs scored.

Look, baseball is a funny game. It’s a long season, and inexplicable trends can emerge, especially against division foes. For some reason, the 2014 Twins have the Tigers’ number, and remain a formidable obstacle in the way of a 4th straight division title.

Kyle Lobstein continues his march towards a full-time starter with his 6th career start tonight. None has been bigger than tonight. Every indication is that he’ll be up to the task, as over his first five he’s 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. In 23 2/3 innings at home this year, Lobstein has a .221 BAA, .624 OPS against, and a 1.01 WHIP. He hasn’t yet faced the Twins as a starter, though he has held Twins hitters to a .200 BA and .720 OPS in 25 plate appearances this year.

The Twins counter with Ricky Nolasco, who silenced the Tigers two weeks ago with an 8 inning, 5 hit, 0 run gem. Back in June the Tigers hit Nolasco a bit better, chasing him with 9 hits and 3 runs after 5 1/3. For the season, Nolasco has been very hittable – posting a 5.47 ERA and 1.53 ERA. Righties drill him to the tune of .303/.330/.498/.829 and Lefties crush him, posting a slashline of .335/.386/.524/.910. Nolasco is much more comfortable at home (4.46 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) than away (6.54, 1.75), and the September 16 home start against the Tigers was one of only two starts this year where Nolasco did not allow a run.

The division is right there in front of us. Let’s go get it.

Baseball Reference Game Preview here.

My pre-game player pick for the subsequent game is Ian Kinsler. Talk to you boys tonight.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B (5-9, 3 doubles)
2. Torii Hunter, RF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH (4-6, 1 double)
5. J.D. Martinez, LF (3-9)
6. Nick Castellanos, 3B (1-3, double)
7. Alex Avila, C
8. Andrew Romine, SS
9. Rajai Davis, CF

Game 2014.159: Twins at Tigers

“Hey man – the playoffs are that way.”

88-70, 1st place, magic number is 3. Playoffs clinched.

Whether Sale will admit it, plunking VMart yesterday ignited this offense, provided some emotion that this team can really build off of, and assured a playoff spot. That said, can we all agree that a wild card slot would be immensely disappointing for this team? It’s a little different now than 2006, because “Wild Card” only guarantees one more game.

So our Tigers end the season with four at home versus the Twins. Probables:

Tonight 7:08 PM: Trevor May v. Max Scherzer

Friday: 7:08 PM: Anthony Swarzak v. Rick Porcello

Saturday: 7:08 PM: Ricky Nolasco v. Kyle Lobstein

Sunday: 1:08 PM: Kyle Gibson v. David Price

There’s a chance the the Tigers could tie for the division with the Royals, then win a one-game division deciding game, and get to skip the one-game wild card play-in game. Or they could tie for the division, then lose the one-game division deciding game, and still get another chance at a one-game playoff. In that scenario, the Tigers would have to lose 5/6 or 6/6 to not be playing in a playoff series next week. Thus, unless the Tigers get swept by the Twins AND the Royals win at least three from the White Sox (in which case we’ll be playing the A’s in the one game wild-card game), the Tigers will either be playing the Royals at Comerica on Monday for the division title, or will win the Central outright. More scenarios from the Freep here. Winning the division means a 5 game set against Baltimore. Losing the division but advancing via the wild card (assuming we get past Oakland) means a 5 game set against the Angels, who seem to average about 10 runs per game against the Tigers.

Beyond the obvious playoff seeding implications, clinching the division also significantly affects personnel headed into the playoffs. It looks like Nathan will be the first, but not only, choice for 9th inning situations, but how will Ausmus use Sanchez and Lobstein in the playoffs? I think that Verlander has earned his way into the rotation (as if he were ever out of it; see Albom’s thoughts here), but we really have no idea where Sanchez is. Sanchez’s ERA rose from 2.33 to 3.46 over his last 10 starts, and in his last 5 he allowed 4, 5, 4, 0, and 3 ER. It would be great to see him get significant innings over the weekend, and feel good about him being a long man in the playoffs. I don’t know if two starts is enough to say that “JV is back!” but it’s better than nothing. If I can be optimistic for a minute here – JV as an ace completely shifts the landscape of the AL playoffs.

**********

In other news…

– Phil Hughes set the all-time K/BB ratio – 11.63. He walked only 16 in 32 starts this year (209 2/3) innings. Bret Saberhagen posted a rate of 11.0 while with the Mets in 1994. Cliff Lee is third on the all-time list with a 10.28 ratio in 2010, and Jim Whitney holds the fourth and fifth spots, respectively, after historic seasons in 1884 (10.00) and ’83 (9.86). Man, those were the days. Strohs were only 2 pence!

Game preview here.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B
2. Torii Hunter, RF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. J.D. Martinez, LF
6. Nick Castellanos, 3B
7. Alex Avila, C
8. Eugenio Suarez, SS
9. Rajai Davis, CF

Game 2014.158: White Sox at Tigers

Now that was some Septober baseball.

It didn’t begin that way: for the 2nd consecutive night the Tiger bats were having trouble, and Detroit went into the 5th with 18 consecutive scoreless innings behind them. One single by Rajai Davis changed that. After moving to 2nd on a ground out, he stole third and then scored on the throw, and just like that Rajai had run the Tigers onto the scoreboard, finally. They added two more on a clutch double by Mr. Septober himself, Torii Hunter.

Meanwhile the White Sox could do nothing with David “Dr. Jekyll” Price, who didn’t disappoint in his on-again off-again pitching trend, baffling the Sox with only 3 hits and no walks against 8 strikeouts over 8 innings. He ran out of gas in the 9th, but how many of us were begging Ausmus to bring him back out to finish the game and leave Nathan in the pen? I thought so. He couldn’t close the deal, and in comes Joe to face Gillaspie with the go-ahead run on 3rd. When he began by walking Gillaspie I’m sure there were many “oh no here we go’s” muttered, but it turns out that Nathan pitched around him intentionally, remembering what Gillaspie did to the Royals a week earlier. Nathan got the last out, and set the stage for a playoff-atmosphere, game-winning hit by Miguel Cabrera.

They really needed that one last night: today the Tigers get a day game against a legitimate Cy Young candidate, Chris Sale. The Condor is having his best season of an already impressive career, with a minuscule 2.20 ERA. If there is any room for optimism, it’s that Sale was roughed up a bit in his last start against the Royals, giving up 9 hits and 5 runs in only 5 innings. In addition, Justin Verlander is coming off perhaps his best start of the season. Perhaps Verlander can dig out his old Cy Young cap and we can have on old fashion battle of the Cys out there.

*****

Classy move by the Tiger organization honoring Paul Konerko , who is winding down an 18-year career, before last night’s game. No, Derek Jeter isn’t the only guy ever to retire.

*****

Stats That Make You Go Hmm:

Victor Martinez is the team MVP, right? Not according to these WAR ratings. Here are the most valuable Tigers based on WAR:

5.4  Max Scherzer

5.1  Miguel Cabrera

5.0  Ian Kinsler

4.2  Victor Martinez

3.6  JD Martinez

But wait, unlike say, OPS, WAR is calculated different ways by different people. Those were the Fangraphs numbers. Here are the Baseball Reference WAR ratings:

5.9  Max Scherzer

5.1  Victor Martinez

5.0  Ian Kinsler

4.8  Miguel Cabrera

4.5  Rick Porcello

Hmm, that one fits in more with my impressions as a fan. At any rate it’s worth noting how high Ian Kinsler ranks on both lists, he of the reckless baserunning and ill-timed pop ups.

Today’s Come Sale-Away Lineup:

  1. Kinsler 2B
  2. Hunter RF
  3. Cabrera 1B
  4. V Martinez DH
  5. JD Martinez LF
  6. Castellanos 3B
  7. Holaday C
  8. Romine SS
  9. Davis CF