80-72, 2nd place, 1 game behind CWS, E# 10.

I haven’t yet figured out how to insert fancy charts into the Word Press editor yet, but imagine there’s a graph below entitled “Jose Valverde’s Career.” The Y axis (vertical) would go from “Bad” at the bottom to “Good” at the top. The X axis (horizontal) would say “Back Then” on the left and go to “Now” on the right. And then there would be an arrow diving from the top left of the chart towards the bottom right. With gusto.

It’s pretty easy to look at Valverde’s recent performance and note that he’s posting a 7.71 ERA over his last 10 outings, having allowed at least 1 ER in 6 of those 10 appearances. He’s been drilled for 5 ER in his last 2 1/3, and mercifully, in one of those, the game ended before he could invite anyone else onto the base paths. So what’s the reason?

As I mentioned last night and a few weeks ago, I think the culprit is his velocity, or lack thereof. According to FanGraphs, his fastball now sits at 93-94, instead of 94-96, and batters are jumping on it. As a result, the swings and misses are down (contact on 83.3% of swings, up from 76.9% last year) which means more balls in play and translates into hits at an alarming rate with our defense. The reduced velocity has also manifested itself in a woeful 6.47 K/9, which is over 3.5 off of his career average.

Moreover, he’s lost a good amount of movement on his fastball, which supports the increased contact. Unless he can develop another pitch, these are the sort of problems that can derail a closer’s career (or a borderline team’s playoff hopes).

Now, the counter to this argument is that is June, July and August were phenomenal. But note that his K rate for those three months was only around 6, and he walked as many in June as he struck out (4). I think that was just a little bit of randomness working itself out over the long season.

Valverde is not as bad as he’s been over the past few outings, but he’s no longer the same guy who K’d ARod to close out the ALDS last year.

(Note – not trying to ignore the team’s defensive woes, inability to make seemingly routine baseball plays and lineup holes. These are all factors. Just wanted to share a few thoughts on Big Potato.)

*******************

The Tigers start an extended series with the Royals tonight which includes a makeup from an April 30th rainout. These will be the last 4 regular season games at Comerica this season. Then it’s off to Minnesota and KC to wrap things up.

It’s hard to get excited about a 4 game set with KC when on the heels of yesterday’s Twins sweep, but this division is wide open. And while the eventual WS Champion Cardinals sat 2.5 games out at this point in time last year, there are questions as to whether the Tigers have the right fire in the locker room.

So I’m going to pull the Spring Training line – had we known in March that the Tigers would be 1 game out, with 10 games remaining against teams that were a combined 37 games under .500, I think we’d all be okay with it, and pretty damn excited about these last 10 games.

Let’s Go Tigers!

Tigers are 7-4 against the Royals this year, 4-1 at Comerica. I feel a sweep.

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Dirks, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8.  Avila, C
9. Infante, 2B

Detroit Tigers, 80-71, 2nd place, .5 back.

Well, they say that it’s a hard thing to win both games of a double-header, although why that is harder than winning any other two games in a row has never been explained to me.  At any rate, after some preliminary calculations, I’ve concluded that there is a high probability that it is equally difficult to lose both games of a double-header.

So the Tigers have that going for them.

Detroit will be entrusting the rubber game to Smiling Drew Smyly, who will be faced by the Pajama Man, P.J. Walters. Forecast calls for probable hitting duel.

And this just in: once again a share of first place is on the line, the White Sox get swept by the Angels (don’t think the Indians will be so accommodating though).

According to ESPN, the White Sox have a 75.4% chance of making the playoffs, the Tigers have a 26.4% chance.  Say what?

Stat of the Day: 28 HR, 73 RBI, .346 BA, 1.146 OPS. A bit low on the RBI maybe, but that is an All-Star season. That is also the line Miguel Cabrera has put up so far this season AT COMERICA PARK. That’s 1 short of 1 RBI PER GAME.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Ramon Santiago.  The knock on Santiago has always been that he just doesn’t have the endurance to play full-time. Considering he has 2 ABs in the last 26 days, he must be really due, and will endure throughout the game.

Today’s Ramon Who? Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Quintin Berry LF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Brennan Boesch RF
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Alex Avila C
9. Ramon Santiago 2B

Detroit Tigers, 80-70, 2nd place,  .5 back.

The rain went away, Doug Fister was the Fister we expected and more (he pitched his first career shutout), the bats were booming (every Tiger except Peralta had at least one hit, and 5 different Tigers knocked in runs), and the Angels were playing well, which means the Tigers have the potential to end today in 1st place (the White Sox game begins shortly before the Tigers’ should end; the the 2nd inning or so they could find themselves tied for first).

That all will depend in large measure how Max Scherzer bounces back from his sore shoulder. Since July 30th Scherzer has been the best pitcher on the Detroit staff, going 6-0 with a 1.93 ERA, and a whole barrel of strikeouts.

Scherzer, for his part, says he feels fine. “Everything felt good,” Scherzer said. “My arm warmed up quick. My arm felt 100 percent. I was able to throw every pitch.”

Going for the Twins will be Scott Diamond, who has pitched well against Detroit (3.26 ERA), but only has an 0-2 record to show for it.

Oh, and Miguel Cabrera hit home run 42 and is now tied for the triple crown lead, in case any of you somehow missed that.

Stat of the Day: 1/2 game behind is the stat for today.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Miguel Cabrera.  Predicting #43 for today.

Today’s Day-Night Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Omar Infante 2B
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Jhonny Peralta SS
7. Andy Dirks LF
8. Avisail Garcia RF
9. Gerald Laird C

Detroit Tigers, 79-70, 2nd place, 1.5 back.

OK, let’s try 150 again.  The weather doesn’t exactly look promising today either, and with a day-night doubleheader on Sunday, the Tigers are already in a jam with their pitching rotation; Detroit will need 6 pitchers over the next 5 days.

The good new is that Max Scherzer has been cleared to pitch, so it looks like Max will pitch the first game Sunday, with Drew Smyly taking the rescheduled rain-out game Sunday night.

In other news, Ron Gardenhire thinks that Cabrera, not Trout should be the MVP: “you can saber all you want.”

Lee Panas has a good breakdown of why “sabering” gets you Trout as the MVP.

Stat of the Day: Detroit leads the AL in first-pitch hitting at bats with 666. (Their results are a bit above average:  the average OPS for first-pitch at bats is .884, the Tigers come in at .899).

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Alex Avila. Alex will try to avoid another bout with Prince Fielder, and try to pick up from the hot-hitting Gerald Laird (.364 over last 2 weeks).

Today’s Rain, Rain Go Away Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Quintin Berry LF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Andy Dirks RF
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Alex Avila C
9. Omar Infante 2B

Detroit Tigers, 79-70, 2nd place, 2 back.

You can’t win them all.

Even the very best teams lose 40% of the time; that’s baseball. The Tigers took 2 games out of 3 from a very successful Oakland A’s team, which all-in-all was a successful series. And yet…to look so bad losing, at this point in the season, is not encouraging.

Lynn Henning is perhaps stating the obvious when he said the main weakness the Tigers have is their gloves.  It is hard to tell how last night would have turned out with good defense, but the impact defense had on the game was certainly far beyond the 1 unearned run in the box score.

Buster Olney has a bit of a different take on the topic. Yes, the Tiger defense is awful, but the players have been supportive of each other–notably the pitchers have never publicly complained. Perhaps Jim Leyland deserves some credit for the team unity.

Well it’s all Twins and Royals from here on out.

Tonight Rick Porcello will try to break a personal 6-start winless streak, and last beyond the 4th inning.  Whether he can or not will probably have something to do with Denard Span (11-for-29 against Porcello). Samuel Deduno will try the Tigers again, after lasting a personal best 8 innings while beating Detroit during the last series between the teams.

No word yet on whether Max Scherzer will or will not make his Sunday start.

Stat of the Day: Detroit leads the AL in first-pitch hitting at bats with 666. (Their results are a bit above average:  the average OPS for first-pitch at bats is .884, the Tigers come in at .899).

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Alex Avila. Alex will try to avoid another bout with Prince Fielder, and try to pick up from the hot-hitting Gerald Laird (.364 over last 2 weeks).

Today’s Alex Is Back Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Quintin Berry LF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Andy Dirks RF
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Alex Avila C
9. Omar Infante 2B

(sorry for the late post)

79-69, 2nd place, 2 games behind CWS, E# 13.

Quick turnaround today.

Let’s not discount how well the Tigers have played over the last two days. The Athletics were the ALs hottest team coming into Detroit, posting an 8-2 record over their last 10 games and going 22-9 over the last month+. And the Tigers have won two snoozers. A sweep this afternoon could be just what the Tigers need to gain some real momentum heading into the final two weeks of the season.

Drew Sharp wrote this morning that the problem is the roster, not Leyland. Considering that the 2 best players in the AL (or 2/3 if you include Trout) play for the Tigers, they have an outstanding staff and AJax and Prince Fielder to boot, I hardly doubt that the roster is the problem. Sure, some better filler players would be welcomed, but I don’t agree with Sharp’s criticism.

Speaking of the final two weeks – I’d like to get a DTW reader poll going. How far would Jimmy Leyland have to go into the playoffs before you’d be willing to bring him back next year? The consensus seems to be make the playoffs or get out. But what happens if we lose in the first round? If the Tigers can miraculously make it through to the ALCS, but then get summarily dismissed, is there any way that Leyland suffers the same fate? To be clear, I’m not asking for a prediction (we’ll save that for when we get there), but rather, for those of you who want Leyland gone – what level of success would cause you to change your mind about Leyland. And will you be willing to forego future complaints regarding JL if he can get to that level?

78-69, 2nd place, 3 games behind CWS, E# 13 (same as Oak).

Well, last night was fun, but we actually lost ground if you consider the fact that we have one less game to catch-up to the White Sox. This is going to be a very tough last few weeks.

The Cabrera for MVP and Triple Crown race is in full swing. Verducci wrote this article yesterday, before Cabrera’s offensive outburst. He does make a good point about Trout’s unbelievable WAR advantage (10.2 – 6.1), but I think that a good close by Miggy and the MVP is his. He’s only 2 HR behind Hamilton for the HR and Triple Crown lead.  Despite Morosi’s claim that the MVP is a mere formality at this point in time, Dave Cameron argues that a true evaluation of all around play decidedly points to Trout.

Some outlets have suggested that JV is still among the leaders in the Cy Young hunt, and I think a dominating stretch and a Tigers playoff appearance earns him the award again. A similar performance by Scherzer could thrust him into contention.

The other subplot is Jim Leyland’s contract (or lack thereof) situation. He’s contract expires in 15 games, and to date, there have been no extension talks. Lynn Henning suggests (and stephen is dreaming of) Terry Francona. MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince thinks that no playoffs means no more Leyland.

Scherzer’s MRI report came out okay. No word on his next start.

Oh, JV pitches tonight. Do your thing, JV.

Tonight’s Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Omar Infante, 2B
3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B
4. Prince Fielder, 1B
5. Delmon Young, DH
6. Jhonny Peralta, SS
7. Avisail Garcia, RF
8. Andy Dirks, LF
9. Gerald Laird, C

77-69, 2nd place, 3 games behind CWS.

The Tigers literally threw the game away yesterday afternoon when an errant toss from Omar Infante skipped by Prince Fielder and the tying and winning runs crossed home for Cleveland. That singular play, no more than 10 seconds long, offers a candid perspective into the team’s late season struggles.

1) The Tigers could not convert on a seemingly routine double play. This has happened time and time again this year. While failure to convert double plays are not classified as errors, they extend innings and demoralize pitchers. As Lee Panas of Tiger Tales pointed out in great detail last night, the Tigers have a significant double play problem, and that has largely contributed to costing the team an estimated 36 runs this season. I highly recommend reading the post. On the flip side, the Tigers have grounded into a major league leading 143 double plays.

2) The Tigers 2B made an error. Tigers 2B have committed 14 errors this season (3 worst than league average), and Omar Infante’s 16 (between Miami and Detroit) are tied for 2nd worst in the majors. We specifically went out and got Infante to improve all-around play at 2B, and he’s simply stayed the course. Perhaps the bag is cursed?

3) Fielder could not scoop the throw, much less get in front of it, which would have saved a run. The Tigers overall poor team defense continues to plague the team in subtle ways.

4) The White Sox scored in a bases loaded 1 out situation. Boesch struck out with the bases juiced and two outs to end the 3rd. It wasn’t a 1 out situation, but the Tigers’ inability to score with the bases loaded has been a problem all season.

5) Al Al walked the first batter he faced, which setup the Infante error. Tigers relievers average 3.31 BB/9, the AL average is 3.27/9. Considering that the Tigers are 9 games under in 1 run games, reliever walks are no small matter. Even one additional walk every week relative to playoff teams can lead to a few losses over the course of the season. Of all other playoff contending teams, only the Yankees have a losing record in 1 run games (TB does too, but I think they are toast).

Righty A.J. Griffin opposes Scherzer tonight. Griffin typifies the Athletics organization and their success this year, as the June call-up is 6-0 with a 1.94 ERA and a microscopic .91 WHIP. All the 2010 draft pick has done is throw 10 QS out of 11, and he left early in the only non-QS due to injury. Griffin has been even better in away games, posting a 4-0 record and 1.15 ERA in 5 away starts.

Looks like Avila’s sprained jaw has him out of the lineup tonight.

Tonight’s Berry Good Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Dirks, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Infante, 2B
9. Laird, C

77-68, 2nd place, 2 games behind CWS.

Before we get too upset about last night’s game, let’s remember that the Tigers had won 4 in a row heading into the game, and we’re not going to win them all. Not even against Cleveland.

Jose Valverde, however, does need to be looked at. If you’re questioning your closer during a season, you’re in a bad spot. If you’re questioning him at the end of the season, you’re in a terrible spot. And I’m afraid that the Tigers find themselves in a terrible spot. After allowing 3 hits and 2 ER while only recording 1 out last night, Valverde now has a 5.79 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over his last 10 outings. He’s allowed a run in 5 out of those 10 appearances and has struck out only 6 in 9 1/3. (He’s walked 4 – but two of those were intentional.) Despite what Valverde says about his arm feeling fine after pitching for the 5th night in 6 days, those balls were rockets.

Miraculously, the Tigers have won despite Valverde’s recent struggles, but who knows how often he’ll be given multiple run leads headed to the 9th. Though I doubt that the thought of replacing Valverde has been even a fleeting whim in Leyland’s mind; so you can largely ignore what the numbers & performances are telling us.

Fister looks to close out the season series with the Sox with the Tigers’ 13th win out of 18 games vs. Chicago. Since the All-Star break, Fister is 7-2 with a 2.49 ERA and 68 Ks in 76 IPs. His BAA during the stretch is .202. Fister has been even better as of late, as he’s won 4 out of his last 5 starts, and recall his masterful 7 IP 2 H (solo HRs) 2 HR performance last Tuesday against these same Sox. Rios is batting .500 against Dougie in 14 career ABs.

Quintana responded to a lot of critics who claimed that he was tiring with a tremendous performance last Monday against the Tigers. The 7 2/3 7 hit 1 ER performance was Jose Quintana’s finest in almost two months, and Ventura gave him an extra 2 days in the hopes of a repeat this afternoon. Still, the lefty is 1-2 with a 6.39 ERA over his last five starts, so I’m saying there’s a chance.

A few notes:

– Not everyone wants Leyland fired.

– Peralta hasn’t committed an error since June 21st. That’s 73 consecutive games and the longest such Tiger streak since at least 1957 (which means that the Tigers notes researchers got a little lazy).

– Tigers starters have 17 quality starts over their past 24 outings. Detroit is 2nd in the AL with 83 quality starts this year. Whenever the off-season starts, starting pitching should be a non-starter.

– The Tigers are 31-10 against CWS since September 7, 2010.

Today’s Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Infante, 2B
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Boesch, LF
8. Garcia, RF
9. Laird, C

Detroit Tigers, 77-67, 2nd place, 1 back.

After 6 2/3 innings of no-hit pitching and a 5-3 victory, the Tigers continued their push for the Central division title.  And after 6 2/3 innings of no-hit pitching and a 5-3 victory, the White Sox continued their push for the Central division title.

I think I’ll go ahead and predict a 163-game season here.

Even before the no-hit bid set in, yesterday’s game was entertaining, with the Tigers posting an un-run on the scoreboard, and Quintin Berry trying to end his perfect streak not once, but twice from second base (for his part, Avila says he did touch third).  What must Berry have been thinking?

“I had a feeling on Twitter it was going crazy.”

The Tigers look to continue their Sunday dominance (17-6) in today’s 3:05 series finale, which gives Cleveland fans time to give up on the Browns at halftime and make their way out to the ballpark.

Detroit will face Ubaldo Jimenez for the 6th time this season.  Jimenez mystified them the first three times around, and the Tigers turned it around the last two.  Today they will look to even the books with both Jimenez and the Indians (9-8 vs Detroit).

Detroit arms Rick “No Run Support” Porcello with the broom.  Porcello has only gotten an average of 1.06 runs in support over his last 6 starts. Look for the bullpen to play a big role today:  Porcello tends to struggle later in games, especially with his sinker, which batters hit at a rate of .410 in innings 5-7.

Stat of the Day: Rick Porcello has the league’s highest BABIP (batting average on balls in play, which measures how effectively the defense turns plays into out) at .346. The league average is .293.  2nd worst? Max Scherzer at .337.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Quintin Berry.  Berry draws multiple walks from the strike-zone challenged Jimenez, and creates some havoc on the base paths. Austin Jackson is a late scratch (possibly some soreness from crashing into the wall trying to save the no-hitter), so Q-Berry will be leading off and patrolling center.

Todays Broom-Brandishing Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF  Quintin Berry CF
2. Quintin Berry LF  Andy Dirks LF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Brennan Boesch RF
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Alex Avila C
9. Omar Infante 2B

Detroit Tigers, 76-67, 2nd place, 1 back.

Last night again went according to plan, as Justin Verlander shook off his last start and shut out the Indians, with the help of some diving stops by the big guys on the corners.

Today Anibal Sanchez will try to do his part as the Tigers look to even up the 2012 tally with Cleveland (9-7 vs Detroit) over these last two games.

And the Tigers will be peeking at the Chicago-Minnesota game in the clubhouse, which should be ending just as their game begins.

Be aware that tomorrow’s Cleveland finale has the odd 3:05 start time.

Speaking of scheduling, the Detroit’s 2013 schedule has been released, and the Tigers have drawn the short end of the stick with the inter league scheduling, getting the only inter league season ending series, in Miami–which means they will be closing out 2013 with a possible pennant race decided by games in which their pitchers are batting.

Stat of the Day: Quintin Berry is 3-5 (.600) with 2 doubles against Justin Masterson.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Quintin Berry.  Berry takes advantage of the Masterson sinker to rack up multiple infield hits.

Todays Boeschberry Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Andy Dirks RF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Brennan Boesch DH
6. Alex Avila C
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Quintin Berry LF
9. Omar Infante 2B

Detroit Tigers, 75-67, 2nd place, 1 back.

OK, let’s try this again. Rained out yesterday, Justin Verlander still has the ball for tonight’s game against Cleveland and Corey Kluber. You may remember him: Cy Kluber beat Detroit (3-2, naturally) on Sept. 3 for his first, and only major league victory.

The result of pushing back the Verlander start will be that the last game against the White Sox will now feature Doug Fister against Gavin Floyd, instead of Justin Verlander vs Chris Sale, a swap that seems to favor the White Sox (despite Sale’s brilliant season he has struggled against Detroit).  Although Drew Sharp seems to think otherwise, for reasons I can’t quite make out.

As a couple of commenters here (stephen and Mark) noted, there was something odd about the moving of Ryan Raburn to the DL, now that rosters have expanded to 40.  What this move does do is actually free up an extra spot on the postseason roster.  If a player on a team’s roster is on the DL on Aug 31 he is eligible for the team’s postseason roster; if that player is also on the DL at season’s end, he can be replaced by any player who is in the team’s organization as of Aug 31.

What does this mean? It means that Al Alburquerque could replace Raburn on the eligible list.

Not that that has anything to do with the Raburn move, as Leyland says.  But if it had, he couldn’t have set it up better:  first Leyland says Raburn is “talented,” causing fans to groan everywhere.  Then he says that Raburn looks “sluggish.” Then they find a quadriceps strain (dang! and he was so talented!) that gives them some roster flexibility.

First things first though:  let’s get these guys into the postseason.

Stat of the Day: The Tigers are the only Central team with a winning record within the division–and that’s with a 6-9 mark against Cleveland.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Delmon Young. Happy Birthday!

Todays Rain-Delayed Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Andy Dirks LF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Brennan Boesch RF
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Alex Avila C
9. Omar Infante 2B