87-74, Central Division Champs

I’ve got to admit, I’m pretty excited about the potential Triple Crown. Here are a few Triple Crown facts for you:

– The Triple Crown has been accomplished 16 times, but none since Carl Yastzremski in 1967. Yastrzemski tied Harmon Killebrew for the HR lead that year with 44. Miggy is the first player since Yastrzemski to enter the final week of the season with a serious chance to win.

– Ty Cobb won the triple crown in 1909 with 9 HR, 107 RB and a .377 average.

– Rogers Hornsby (1922 and 1925) and Ted Williams (1942 and 1947) are the only players to win it twice.

– Every player to have won a Triple Crown is now in the hall of fame.

– 13 of the 16 Triple Crown winners came before 1950, and it happened 8 times between 1922 and 1947.

– No third baseman has ever won the Triple Crown. The breakdown by position is: 1B  2, 2B 3 (Hornsby), LF 5 (including 2 by Williams), CF 3, and RF 3.

– The highest totals per category are 52 HR (Mantle, 1956), 165 RBI (Gehrig 1934) and a .440 average (Duffy, 1894).

– The lowest totals per category are 4 HR (Paul Hines, 1878), 50 RBI (Hines, 1878) and a .316 average (Frank Robinson, 1966).

Latest news is that Cabrera may sit if the Triple Crown is sewn up. Since he has a comfortable lead in BA, I think this is a good idea. Note that if Trout goes 6-6, he’ll mathematically pass Cabrera (.3309 to .3306), so stay tuned. Hamilton starts at 3:35 pm today, Trout starts at 6:40 pm.

I’ll post lineups when they are available.

87-73, Central Division Champs.

Enjoy.

If the season had already ended, we’d be squaring off with the Rangers in Detroit on Saturday. Currently, the Yankees would get the #1 AL seed based on their head to head record versus the Rangers, with the Rangers as the 2nd division winner, and then the Orioles and As in a 1 game playoff in Oakland. But a lot can happen today and tomorrow to change that.

MLB has a page up which lists the current postseason picture and has a link for tiebreaker rules. Keep an eye on it.

Fister tunes up for what will likely be a game 2 start on Sunday in Detroit. So the only real drama left for the Tigers is whether Miggy win the Triple Crown. In case you’ve sworn off any sports outlet in the world other than DTW, here’s where stands:

BA
Cabrera – .329 (career .304 with 2 HRs v. Guthrie)
Trout –  .325 (career .111 off of Iwakuma)

HR
Cabrera – 44
Hamilton – 43 (2 for 10, 0 HR off of Travis Blackley)

RBI
Cabrera has 137, Hamilton has 127. The RBI race is done.

We get to relax for three days, then emotions get jacked up on Saturday.

Tonight’s Coasting Lineup:

1. Berry, CF
2. Santiago, 2B
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Avila, C
7. Boesch, RF
8. Kelly, LF
9. Worth, SS

86-73, 1st place, magic # is 1.

The Tigers won their 6th game in 7 tries in dramatic fashion last night to move 13 games over .500 for the first time all year, and 3 games ahead of the White Sox with three to play. Sweet October is here.

I’d like to point out that while Valverde has now thrown 4 consecutive scoreless and hitless innings, allowing only 1 walk, two of his outs yesterday were scorchers that took great plays by AJax to call them outs. And he’s only struck out 2 in those 4 innings, which isn’t an acceptable K/9 ratio for a closer. Benoit is coming off of his worst outing of the year, so we do have a bit of bullpen chaos, though Leyland likely doesn’t recognize it; which is probably best at this point in time.

But let’s be honest, the playoffs are a mere formality. While losing 3 to the Royals is not out of the question (2006 anyone?), the White Sox would have to concurrently win their last 3 to force a one-game playoff. Winning one will be a chore for the pale hose. Sox and Indians start an hour before us. Remember what we discussed last week about the Tigers’ playoff performance and Leyland’s contract.

The AL Playoff Scenarios are wide-open, as the Rangers, Orioles and Yankees scramble for pole position, and the A’s hang on to the final WC spot. As stephen reminded us yesterday, some funky MLB scheduling means that the lower seeds will open at home this year for 2 games, with the final 3 games on the road. So if the Tigers do indeed find themselves in the postseason, they’ll open with Verlander and Fister/Scherzer at Comerica on Saturday and Sunday. As of now, the Tigers could find themselves opening against any of the Rangers, Orioles, Yankees and Athletics.

Max Scherzer threw yesterday and said his shoulder was fine, though unless the Tigers find themselves in a win or go home situation on Wednesday, I expect his next start to be game 2 in Detroit.

Cy Chen against Ricky P tonight. Considering how well Sanchez has thrown as of late, I imagine that this could be Porcello’s last start for a while.

A few notes:

– ESPN is going to cut in for each of Miggy’s ABs on Wednesday. Cabrera holds a slim lead over Mauer for the batting race (.325 to .323) is tied with Hamilton for the HR lead (43) and has a comfortable lead in RBIs (136 to Hamilton’s 125).

– JV’s 2-0, 1.20 ERA last week earned him co-player of the week honors.

Today’s Player of the Pre-Game – Big Prince Fielder. Fielder has 3 HRs, 7 RBIs and 5 runs over his last 10 games. A hot Fielder means more pitches for Miggy.

Tonight’s Playoff Clinching? Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Infante, 2B
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH (remember when he used to play in the OF? Hilarious.)
6.  Peralta, SS
7. Dirks, LF
8. Garcia, RF
9. Laird, C

83-72, 1st place, 1 game ahead of CWS.

In case you’ve missed today’s theme, we’re in first place.

Final home game of the regular season today, the Tigers head to Minnesota and KC for the final 6 of the season. Little bit of a shake-up for the final road-trip as Scherzer has been scratched for tomorrow’s start due to a deltoid strain. Smyly will start in his place. Jon Morosi wonders if the Tigers may look for a last minute replacement in the event that Scherzer’s shoulder is worse than we hope.

Luis Mendoza is 8-9 with a 4.44 ERA this year. The Tigers roughed him up for 6 ER on 7 hits over 5 innings on August 28th. Cabrera is 3-8 off of Mendoza with 1 HR.

If you’re headed out to the game today, here’s a list of the people whom you may need to say goodbye to: Leyland (I do not expect him to be back), Gerald Laird (I do expect him to be back), Brennan Boesch (I’m 50/50 on him), Jhonny Peralta (I hope we can find a better defensive solution; but don’t forget the Adam Everett days); Delmon Young (he’s gone with VMart back next year); and Anibal Sanchez (I expect the Tigers to make a strong offer to re-sign him).

I recognize that there is a lot going on with the pennant race and the Triple Crown and what not, but please take a moment to enjoy the sanctity and beauty of meaningful late September afternoon baseball. I’m going to watch the game from my desk with a sandwich and some chips, maybe a cold drink if things go our way. How about you?

A few notes:

– The Tigers will pass 3 million in attendance today for the 3rd time in club history (’07, ’08).

– The Tigers are 14 games over .500 since late June, 2nd best in the AL.

– The Tigers are 32-11 at home since Independence day. Some quick math tells us that they are not so hot on the road, so a win today is crucial with no more home cooking left.

Today’s First Place Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Dirks, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Avila, C
9. Infante, 2B

82-72, 1st PLACE!

Anibal Sanchez picked a prime spot for his best performance as a Tiger when he picked through the Royals lineup with ease, allowing only 3 hits in a complete game shut-out. Sanchez K’d 10 against only 1 walk. Sanchez had to be nearly perfect, because Chen was surgical, according to Leyland. Chen was great, but Sanchez was spectacular.

Ricky P returns from vacation just in time to start for a first place club. Things haven’t been going so well during his recent outings. The Tigers have not won in his last 7 starts, and Porcello has taken the loss in 6 of those. Though he’s hardly to blame. During that 7 game stretch Porcello has allowed more than 3 runs just once, and the Tigers are 0-5 in one-run games (remember, we’re on an 0-11 one run game streak). Porcello’s ERA has actually dropped (4.68 to 4.57) during this 7 game span. Porcello is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA against the Royals this season, and 5-3 with a 4.50 ERA versus KC over his career.

Jeremy Guthrie has been fantastic for the Royals as of late, only allowing 6 ER in his last 36 1/3 (1.49 ERA) and posting 5 straight quality starts, including 7 1/3 of 1 run ball against the Tigers on August 30th – though the Tigers did have 10 hits. In two starts against the Tigers this season, Guthrie is 1-1 with a 3.48 ERA. Cabrera is 7-19 (.368) with 2 HR off of Guthrie.

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A few notes:

– Looks like ESPN has Bob Holtzman trailing the Tigers to cover the Triple Crown. He said that he asked Cabrera in the locker room if Cabbie was keeping an eye on Hamilton (on the TV), and Cabrera said “no, why would I? I’ve got a game to get ready for tomorrow.” Cabrera’s head is in the right place.

– Though I’m not sure if Leyland’s is…he was quoted yesterday as saying: “I’m surprised we haven’t won more games than we have. I figured this team would win somewhere between 90 and 95 games.” It’s a little disconcerting that the manager of the team is surprised by anything. It’s as if he’s not paying attention.

– The last two selections for the DTW post image have thrown 10 innings of 3 hit, shutout ball, FYI.

– Papa Grande has hired Scott Boras. Boras and Dombrowski have worked together over the years (Pudge, Maggs, Rogers, Fielder). Curious time to get a new agent.

– 4 Ks from Porcello would set a new season high (currently 104 in 2011).

Tonight’s 1st Place Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Dirks, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Avila, C
9. Infante, 2B

81-72, .5 games back.

There was a brief moment of exuberance last night, when the Tigers were arguably tied for first, and Miguel Cabrera was arguably in the Triple Crown lead. Then stephen spoke and all hell broke loose. Minutes later a Josh Hamilton 6th inning HR and an Adam Dunn 8th inning 3 run blast wiped the smiles away, and the Tigers and Cabrera were knocked back down a rung.

But today is a new day…Cleveland just beat CWS, 1st place is on the line tonight. More coming in a bit, I wanted to get this going with the CWS loss.

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Standing in the way of a first place tie is Tigers nemesis Bruce Chen. Or is he really our nemesis? Yes, Chen shutout the Tigers over 8 innings on August 29th, allowing only 4 hits and a walk in a KC win. But his 2012 ERA vs. the Tigers is 3.93, and for his career he’s 5-5 with a 5.49 ERA, and more importantly, 2-4 with a 6.82 ERA at Comerica. Pit that against his career 4.61 ERA, and we can conclude that 2 great starts against the Tigers in 2011 have colored our impression of Mr. Chen. Cabrera is 11-26 (.423) with 3 bombs against Chen, and DY is 8-18 (.444) with a homer.

Sanchez was roughed up his last time out, but he had posted 5 straight QS prior to the Oakland outing. Over his last 6 Sanchez has a 2.77 ERA and a handsome 1.05 WHIP. He can beat KC.

Speaking of good starting pitching, over the last month, Tigers’ starters have a 2.78 ERA and 180 Ks in 200 2/3 IP. Opponents are batting only .237 off of the starters during that stretch.

Tonight’s 1st Place Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Infante, 2B
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Dirks, LF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Garcia, RF
9. Laird, C

80-72, 2nd place, 1 game behind CWS, E# 10.

I haven’t yet figured out how to insert fancy charts into the Word Press editor yet, but imagine there’s a graph below entitled “Jose Valverde’s Career.” The Y axis (vertical) would go from “Bad” at the bottom to “Good” at the top. The X axis (horizontal) would say “Back Then” on the left and go to “Now” on the right. And then there would be an arrow diving from the top left of the chart towards the bottom right. With gusto.

It’s pretty easy to look at Valverde’s recent performance and note that he’s posting a 7.71 ERA over his last 10 outings, having allowed at least 1 ER in 6 of those 10 appearances. He’s been drilled for 5 ER in his last 2 1/3, and mercifully, in one of those, the game ended before he could invite anyone else onto the base paths. So what’s the reason?

As I mentioned last night and a few weeks ago, I think the culprit is his velocity, or lack thereof. According to FanGraphs, his fastball now sits at 93-94, instead of 94-96, and batters are jumping on it. As a result, the swings and misses are down (contact on 83.3% of swings, up from 76.9% last year) which means more balls in play and translates into hits at an alarming rate with our defense. The reduced velocity has also manifested itself in a woeful 6.47 K/9, which is over 3.5 off of his career average.

Moreover, he’s lost a good amount of movement on his fastball, which supports the increased contact. Unless he can develop another pitch, these are the sort of problems that can derail a closer’s career (or a borderline team’s playoff hopes).

Now, the counter to this argument is that is June, July and August were phenomenal. But note that his K rate for those three months was only around 6, and he walked as many in June as he struck out (4). I think that was just a little bit of randomness working itself out over the long season.

Valverde is not as bad as he’s been over the past few outings, but he’s no longer the same guy who K’d ARod to close out the ALDS last year.

(Note – not trying to ignore the team’s defensive woes, inability to make seemingly routine baseball plays and lineup holes. These are all factors. Just wanted to share a few thoughts on Big Potato.)

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The Tigers start an extended series with the Royals tonight which includes a makeup from an April 30th rainout. These will be the last 4 regular season games at Comerica this season. Then it’s off to Minnesota and KC to wrap things up.

It’s hard to get excited about a 4 game set with KC when on the heels of yesterday’s Twins sweep, but this division is wide open. And while the eventual WS Champion Cardinals sat 2.5 games out at this point in time last year, there are questions as to whether the Tigers have the right fire in the locker room.

So I’m going to pull the Spring Training line – had we known in March that the Tigers would be 1 game out, with 10 games remaining against teams that were a combined 37 games under .500, I think we’d all be okay with it, and pretty damn excited about these last 10 games.

Let’s Go Tigers!

Tigers are 7-4 against the Royals this year, 4-1 at Comerica. I feel a sweep.

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Dirks, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8.  Avila, C
9. Infante, 2B

(sorry for the late post)

79-69, 2nd place, 2 games behind CWS, E# 13.

Quick turnaround today.

Let’s not discount how well the Tigers have played over the last two days. The Athletics were the ALs hottest team coming into Detroit, posting an 8-2 record over their last 10 games and going 22-9 over the last month+. And the Tigers have won two snoozers. A sweep this afternoon could be just what the Tigers need to gain some real momentum heading into the final two weeks of the season.

Drew Sharp wrote this morning that the problem is the roster, not Leyland. Considering that the 2 best players in the AL (or 2/3 if you include Trout) play for the Tigers, they have an outstanding staff and AJax and Prince Fielder to boot, I hardly doubt that the roster is the problem. Sure, some better filler players would be welcomed, but I don’t agree with Sharp’s criticism.

Speaking of the final two weeks – I’d like to get a DTW reader poll going. How far would Jimmy Leyland have to go into the playoffs before you’d be willing to bring him back next year? The consensus seems to be make the playoffs or get out. But what happens if we lose in the first round? If the Tigers can miraculously make it through to the ALCS, but then get summarily dismissed, is there any way that Leyland suffers the same fate? To be clear, I’m not asking for a prediction (we’ll save that for when we get there), but rather, for those of you who want Leyland gone – what level of success would cause you to change your mind about Leyland. And will you be willing to forego future complaints regarding JL if he can get to that level?

78-69, 2nd place, 3 games behind CWS, E# 13 (same as Oak).

Well, last night was fun, but we actually lost ground if you consider the fact that we have one less game to catch-up to the White Sox. This is going to be a very tough last few weeks.

The Cabrera for MVP and Triple Crown race is in full swing. Verducci wrote this article yesterday, before Cabrera’s offensive outburst. He does make a good point about Trout’s unbelievable WAR advantage (10.2 – 6.1), but I think that a good close by Miggy and the MVP is his. He’s only 2 HR behind Hamilton for the HR and Triple Crown lead.  Despite Morosi’s claim that the MVP is a mere formality at this point in time, Dave Cameron argues that a true evaluation of all around play decidedly points to Trout.

Some outlets have suggested that JV is still among the leaders in the Cy Young hunt, and I think a dominating stretch and a Tigers playoff appearance earns him the award again. A similar performance by Scherzer could thrust him into contention.

The other subplot is Jim Leyland’s contract (or lack thereof) situation. He’s contract expires in 15 games, and to date, there have been no extension talks. Lynn Henning suggests (and stephen is dreaming of) Terry Francona. MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince thinks that no playoffs means no more Leyland.

Scherzer’s MRI report came out okay. No word on his next start.

Oh, JV pitches tonight. Do your thing, JV.

Tonight’s Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Omar Infante, 2B
3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B
4. Prince Fielder, 1B
5. Delmon Young, DH
6. Jhonny Peralta, SS
7. Avisail Garcia, RF
8. Andy Dirks, LF
9. Gerald Laird, C

77-69, 2nd place, 3 games behind CWS.

The Tigers literally threw the game away yesterday afternoon when an errant toss from Omar Infante skipped by Prince Fielder and the tying and winning runs crossed home for Cleveland. That singular play, no more than 10 seconds long, offers a candid perspective into the team’s late season struggles.

1) The Tigers could not convert on a seemingly routine double play. This has happened time and time again this year. While failure to convert double plays are not classified as errors, they extend innings and demoralize pitchers. As Lee Panas of Tiger Tales pointed out in great detail last night, the Tigers have a significant double play problem, and that has largely contributed to costing the team an estimated 36 runs this season. I highly recommend reading the post. On the flip side, the Tigers have grounded into a major league leading 143 double plays.

2) The Tigers 2B made an error. Tigers 2B have committed 14 errors this season (3 worst than league average), and Omar Infante’s 16 (between Miami and Detroit) are tied for 2nd worst in the majors. We specifically went out and got Infante to improve all-around play at 2B, and he’s simply stayed the course. Perhaps the bag is cursed?

3) Fielder could not scoop the throw, much less get in front of it, which would have saved a run. The Tigers overall poor team defense continues to plague the team in subtle ways.

4) The White Sox scored in a bases loaded 1 out situation. Boesch struck out with the bases juiced and two outs to end the 3rd. It wasn’t a 1 out situation, but the Tigers’ inability to score with the bases loaded has been a problem all season.

5) Al Al walked the first batter he faced, which setup the Infante error. Tigers relievers average 3.31 BB/9, the AL average is 3.27/9. Considering that the Tigers are 9 games under in 1 run games, reliever walks are no small matter. Even one additional walk every week relative to playoff teams can lead to a few losses over the course of the season. Of all other playoff contending teams, only the Yankees have a losing record in 1 run games (TB does too, but I think they are toast).

Righty A.J. Griffin opposes Scherzer tonight. Griffin typifies the Athletics organization and their success this year, as the June call-up is 6-0 with a 1.94 ERA and a microscopic .91 WHIP. All the 2010 draft pick has done is throw 10 QS out of 11, and he left early in the only non-QS due to injury. Griffin has been even better in away games, posting a 4-0 record and 1.15 ERA in 5 away starts.

Looks like Avila’s sprained jaw has him out of the lineup tonight.

Tonight’s Berry Good Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Dirks, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Infante, 2B
9. Laird, C

77-68, 2nd place, 2 games behind CWS.

Before we get too upset about last night’s game, let’s remember that the Tigers had won 4 in a row heading into the game, and we’re not going to win them all. Not even against Cleveland.

Jose Valverde, however, does need to be looked at. If you’re questioning your closer during a season, you’re in a bad spot. If you’re questioning him at the end of the season, you’re in a terrible spot. And I’m afraid that the Tigers find themselves in a terrible spot. After allowing 3 hits and 2 ER while only recording 1 out last night, Valverde now has a 5.79 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over his last 10 outings. He’s allowed a run in 5 out of those 10 appearances and has struck out only 6 in 9 1/3. (He’s walked 4 – but two of those were intentional.) Despite what Valverde says about his arm feeling fine after pitching for the 5th night in 6 days, those balls were rockets.

Miraculously, the Tigers have won despite Valverde’s recent struggles, but who knows how often he’ll be given multiple run leads headed to the 9th. Though I doubt that the thought of replacing Valverde has been even a fleeting whim in Leyland’s mind; so you can largely ignore what the numbers & performances are telling us.

Fister looks to close out the season series with the Sox with the Tigers’ 13th win out of 18 games vs. Chicago. Since the All-Star break, Fister is 7-2 with a 2.49 ERA and 68 Ks in 76 IPs. His BAA during the stretch is .202. Fister has been even better as of late, as he’s won 4 out of his last 5 starts, and recall his masterful 7 IP 2 H (solo HRs) 2 HR performance last Tuesday against these same Sox. Rios is batting .500 against Dougie in 14 career ABs.

Quintana responded to a lot of critics who claimed that he was tiring with a tremendous performance last Monday against the Tigers. The 7 2/3 7 hit 1 ER performance was Jose Quintana’s finest in almost two months, and Ventura gave him an extra 2 days in the hopes of a repeat this afternoon. Still, the lefty is 1-2 with a 6.39 ERA over his last five starts, so I’m saying there’s a chance.

A few notes:

– Not everyone wants Leyland fired.

– Peralta hasn’t committed an error since June 21st. That’s 73 consecutive games and the longest such Tiger streak since at least 1957 (which means that the Tigers notes researchers got a little lazy).

– Tigers starters have 17 quality starts over their past 24 outings. Detroit is 2nd in the AL with 83 quality starts this year. Whenever the off-season starts, starting pitching should be a non-starter.

– The Tigers are 31-10 against CWS since September 7, 2010.

Today’s Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Infante, 2B
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Boesch, LF
8. Garcia, RF
9. Laird, C