Detroit Tigers: 60-45, 1st Place (2.5 ahead of Cleveland). 

Today is Christmas in July at Comerica Park, featuring Santa Paws. He will have his eyes on you, Mr. Verlander. Will this outing be naughty, or nice?

The Tigers won their 4th consecutive in the two-game series opener as Alex Avila was the unexpected hero with his first career grand slam. It was a big win because Cleveland won their 6th straight, as Ryan Raburn came through with a two-run pinch-hit single. Raburn is now batting .321 for July. The Royals have also won 7 straight and crept over the .500 mark.

After the conclusion of the quick two-game series with Washington, the Tigers get another day off, then the White Sox (and Avisail Garcia) come to town, and then it is off to Cleveland. (I don’t think I can ever remember seeing a two-game series in the middle of a home stand with days off before and after).

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Miguel Cabrera seemed to tweak his hip flexor yesterday charging a slow roller at 3rd. According to Kevin Rand Cabrera actually suffered an abdominal strain, and is listed as day-to-day, with today not being one of those days, and tomorrow being an off-day. There is a chance the Tigers could begin their White Sox series with a Santiago-Iglesias-Perez infield.

In better news, Omar Infante has begun running and may be able to join the team on its upcoming road trip.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Alex Avila. I may be pressing my luck with this one, but Avila is on a 5-game hitting streak, and has actually put up respectable numbers for July: .250 BA, .740 OPS.

Today’s  Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Tuiasosopo, LF
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Perez, 2B
8. Santiago, 3B
9. Avila, C

Game 2013.105: Nationals at Tigers

Detroit Tigers: 59-45, 1st Place (2.5 ahead of Cleveland). 

It is Tuesday night, the trade deadline draws nigh, and the Tigers have one of those oh-so-2013 two-game Interleague series with Washington, who is out for revenge for that 1970 trade that sent Denny McClain to Washington for Joe Coleman, Eddie Brinkman, and Aurelio Rodriguez.

I predict Denard Span will do something annoying (Span career BA: Overall-.282 vs. Detroit-.344).

As Kevin posted yesterday,  the Tigers obtained Jose Veras from the Astros to shore up their bullpen. Following the Jim Leyland rule of dealing with new players, expect him to appear in the 7th or 8th tonight.

With a day and change left before the trading deadline, will that be the only move the Tigers make? There has been a lot of speculation that the Tigers will looks for some Shortstop Plan B in case, just in case, Jhonny Peralta gets waylaid. There seems to be very little noise, rumor-wise, in that direction. I assume Dave Dombrowski is fully apprised of any shoes that may be dropping, and take this to mean that Peralta, for this season at least, will be around. We shall see.

Mr. D, actually, decided the best place for him to be on Monday was in Toledo, where he took in a Mud Hens game, in which he just happened to be able to watch Jeremy Bonderman pitch two perfect innings. Hmm. The Tigers are rumored to still be after one more relief pitcher. Is Bonderman that one more?

*****

When the Tigers nabbed Veras, the question became, who goes to Toledo, Putkonen or Evan Reed? Putty drew the short straw, and was optioned to Toledo today.

*****

Stat of the Day:  July OPS:

• Don Kelly: .873
• Hernan Perez: .658
• Prince Fielder: .643

Just saying.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Victor Martinez. VMart has become, well, VMart. He is batting .385 for July, with a 1.011 OPS. Martinez was just killing the team the first half of the season, and how long to wait on him before pulling the plug was a legitimate topic. Leyland was patient, for the win.

Today’s Torii is Well-Rested Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Dirks, LF
8. Avila, C
9. Santiago, 2B

58-45, 1st place, 3 games up on Cleveland.

I said Friday’s game was a good win. You know, I think I like 10-0 even better.

Check this out: 5 AL Central teams gave up a combined total of 1 run yesterday. KC spoiled the party by scoring a run against the White Sox. Cleveland beat Yu Darvish and the Rangers 1-0. We’re not worried about the Indians, of course. But we should be. From MLB.com:

“It also marked the 13th shutout of the season for the Indians, who are tied with the Rays and Pirates for the Major League lead in that category. Masterson has been on the hill for six of those blankings, which include a trio of 1-0 victories. Cleveland’s four 1-0 wins this season are already the most in one campaign since the club had seven such victories in 1989.”

Last night: Miguel was back with a vengeance (sorry, guys –  the news that he’d be in the lineup came after press time on my busy Saturday), Tuiasosopo bought himself another month of consideration for playing time with both offense and defense (and surpassed Jackson in RBI), Scherzer (15-1) pitched like he didn’t know the score, Alburquerque pitched two (2) innings – that’s right, I said two innings – without incident, and Hernan Perez helped turn a 6-4-3 that the Peralta-Infante combo would have been (and often has been) hard-pressed to turn (Kelly being the “3” might have also played a part). Splendid all around. Well… I suppose Hunter ending up on 3B was a bit of a gift. But Torii’s double wasn’t. Dude’s still on fire, as V-Mart continues to be.

One sour note: Fielder’s 3-pitch strikeout was the ugliest one I’ve seen all season from any Tigers hitter, and I’ve seen about 75% of them. It came against starter Valdes, who had been throwing BP from the start (and still was – he came out after the next batter!). What on earth ails Prince?

I want to start banging the DFA Santiago drum, but I just received word that he’s being kept around for Dancing With The All Stars, so I’ll save my strength. Sure was fun to see Ramon batting in Miggy’s spot.

I didn’t do my homework for this series, and that’s putting it nicely. You with-it people out there know this already, but another break the Tigers caught (and Valdes instead of Lee was pretty big itself) was not having to face Domonic Brown or Ryan Howard, and also not having to deal with the distraction of Ben Revere on base. This Phillies team is one hard-luck bunch this season. They’re like the NL Yankees. Talk about “it’s when you play ’em.” Still want the sweep, though. No charity, foot on their throat.

Jimmy Rollins’s play on the Avila (I think) grounder up the middle… man! So that’s what a real shortstop looks like. I want one for 2014. I thought I was content with Jhonny…. and I am… but I won’t be. Not that I assume guilt or even think much of the whole Biogenesis investigation, but I do want to recognize Vince for Jhonny PEDralta. That was funny.

Fun facts: Tuiasosopo has drawn as many walks as Hunter. Infante’s SLG is higher than Fielder’s. Verlander’s WHIP is the highest on the staff, and it’s a safe bet that this has never been the case this late in the season at any point in his career. Every 2013 Tigers bench guy – every single one, both temps and perms – has a higher SLG than Avila.

Remember Rick Porcello against the Pirates? Any reason he can’t do that to the Phillies? I can’t think of one. I’d encourage the hitters to score more than 0 runs this time. 7 would be good. No, make it 8. Coke and Putkonen might be due for some work.

57-45, 1st place, 3 games up on Cleveland.

Hernan Perez walks, Ramon Santiago doubles, Alex Avila clears the bases – against Cole Hamels. Doug Fister baffles ’em. That, my friends, is a good win, of a type that will be called for with Mr. Universe out and the other Big Bopper not bopping. Recovery from early stumbling is even more encouraging. That strikeout-CS double play that deflated us was, as Coleman suggests, bad play-calling. If you don’t have the guys on base (not to mention at the plate) who can execute, don’t call it. Either that or go for broke and call for the double steal and look stupid but bold. The mishmash that actually happened was just plain ugly… and unnecessary… and potentially game-costing.

The Tigers may or may not be catching a break by not having to face Cliff Lee tonight, who was evidently “scratched,” which makes me think that the Phillies must be a bunch of big babies if merely being scratched forces you to miss a game. Sensitive skin, I guess. I seem to recall the Tigers having Lee’s number in other times, and current Tigers have hit him well, though one of them is the presumably MIA Miguel Cabrera.

Earlier in the season, I though Joaquin Benoit’s numbers were overstating his case. I didn’t think he was pitching that well – maybe it was just frustration over how he never seemed to have the clean inning I demanded. I thought he was drifting toward the Land Of Valverde, I really did. But in fact, he’s been a consistent standout contributor. I guess those numbers aren’t lying. So, my apologies to Joaquin, with the hope that this isn’t an invitation to slump badly down the stretch.

I noticed how dumb it looked for me to seemingly suggest that Miggy’s hip flexor per se was something to discuss – what do we know about hip flexors? I wondered if the same jokes about trading for some spare hip flexors (Ryan Braun won’t be needing his for a while) occurred to anyone else. Anyway, the real issue is of course Cabrera’s health and presence in the lineup. It’s smart for him to get some time off now, but the issue will probably be with us for the rest of the season – it was there for weeks (possibly many weeks) before he finally had to come out.

The Omar Infante situation has certainly become more acute than we suspected it would be. I miss the glove more than the bat, which is saying something about the glove, because Infante’s absence in the #9 spot is already a glaring weakness. It’s nice to get a look at Perez, but not at this cost.

So, does Bonderman really have a shot at a bullpen tryout? Wonder what the Jurjjens plan is. Long-term reclamation project? Insurance? Shot in the arm for Toledo?

How do we feel about the bullpen now? Me, I’m feeling some confidence that Rondon is in the process of arrival. Not so much confidence in the other 4/7 of the pen. Downs will be back soon, and we’ll see what he can do. I confess to lack of interest in trade rumors involving relievers. I keep hoping that the talent the Tigers already have will finally get it together, piece by piece.

I’ll leave the heavy-duty (and interesting) Verlander analysis to Kevin, but I will mention my thought that if Justin persists in statements about “working on things,” it invites the retort that perhaps he could work on getting guys out one of these starts. That would make a good project. JV has become alarmingly hittable. That’s the rub. The idea that he might start needing to be more crafty rather than relying upon blowing guys away never bothered me – that happens to all good pitchers.

It was predictable that, as we clamored for Matt Tuiasosopo to get more playing time, there would come a time when he did and didn’t do quite as well as perhaps we thought he should. He still looks like a good hitter to me, however. This guy came into the season with a sub-.200 career average. Hard to believe when you watch him at the plate. If someone can turn things around like that, there might still be hope for Avila.

I entertain thoughts of a new direction at C for the Tigers in 2014, but Salvador Perez’s don’t grow on trees. My “hope” for Avila, however, is for next season. I see nothing to indicate the possibility of any breakthrough this season. If there’s a blind squirrel at the plate on this Tigers team, it’s Alex Avila. Please – more starts for Brayan Pena. It’s no compromise defensively, and though Pena might make you think he’s a loose cannon, a hacker, as a hitter, he’s actually more skilled than Avila. The one thing I’ll give the edge to Avila on is eye for the strike zone. Which, unfortunately, is not helping Alex a great deal this season. Seeing it is good. Hitting it is better.

Last 30 (individual) games:

Torii Hunter (hope he’s in the lineup!), team record, HR, RBI, OPS, RE24: 16-14, 7, 22, .936, 9.48.

Victor Martinez (hope he’s at 1B!): 17-13, 4, 22, .929, 8.40.

How good is the above? Miguel Cabrera: 15-15, 13, 27, 1.233, 16.02.

You might say that the Tigers have spent some of June and all of July armed with 2.5 Miggys. A massive improvelence! If you want to be a little more pessimistic about it, look at the team record. Your Honor, I would like to call Prince Fielder and Justin Verlander to the stand.

12 games over .500 is a dizzying height for the Detroit Tigers, in case you didn’t know. It took them until September 29 last season to reach this plateau. Before the season, I called for a 99-63 finish. Reaching that would now require a 42-18 run. Is that possible? With Cabrera out a few more games and maybe a lot more games? With Prince Fielder being Delmon Young? (It would be nice if Fielder turned to Young in October… haven’t forgotten your horrid postseason, Prince, sorry.) With two more weeks – at least – absent Infante-solidity at 2B? With Verlander not merely mortal, but actually struggling? OK, I’ll settle for a more modest 93-69 (while reserving the right to claim credit for the original prediction). 36-24 is way doable. Yes, even with all the above reservations.

Let’s not get overconfident and say that 14-1 Max against the Phillies is going to be like shooting fish in a barrel. Let’s instead rejoice in the fact that Scherzer vs. ANY TEAM can be like shooting fish in a barrel, as good as he’s been and can be. We have the choice of bracing ourselves for a bit of a letdown (aided by the ever-dreaded and ever-possible clown show) or clamoring for the slaughter.

I clamor for the slaughter.

56-45, 1st place, 3 games up on Cleveland.

Well, it was almost euphoria. Maybe you have to live in the Chicago area to relate, but sweeping the White Sox 4 straight in Chicago would have been the equivalent of a World Series championship to me (no matter how the White Sox – or the Tigers for that matter – happen to be doing this season). OK, almost. Hard to believe that JV and Dirks would be the goats keeping such a prize from us, but hey, let’s count our blessings. Heck of a good series, most of it minus Miggy. Bravo, Tigers.

Philadelphia at Detroit. Wow. How often do you get to say that? Philadelphia Athletics? No, Phillies. Hmmm. If the information I have is correct, these two teams have only played each other 12 times. Ever. Last in 2007. Series tied at 6. This weekend’s featured ex-Tiger (there’s always at least one) is “natural RF” (according to the Phillies GM) Delmon Young, who is having a Delmon Young-like season overall and is on a bit of a tear, batting .340 (.809 OPS) over the past month or so.

There’s certainly plenty to discuss. Cabrera’s hip flexor, Omar’s slow recovery, JV’s struggles, Bonderman, Jurjjens (will the Tigers sign Brandon Inge to a minor league deal next? I wouldn’t bet against it), red-hot Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter, the bullpen again though less than before, the bench (a very good bench in my view – wish Lee Panas would write a feature offering comparative analysis here) … the list goes on and on. I’ll get to it. Maybe. Feel free to start without me. Meanwhile, I thought I’d update you on standings in the Game Poster League:

Coleman 21-14
Smoking Loon 17-14
Kevin in Dallas 18-17

I’m counting on this series to position me for the stretch run. (Of course, I’m hoping we all tie at around 33-21.) The good news is that Justin Verlander won’t be pitching. Fister-Scherzer-Porcello. Sounds good to me.

56-44, 1st place, 3.5 games up.

The Tigers again took advantage of the hapless White Sox and cruised to a 6-2 victory. Cruised may not even be descriptive enough. After the fourth batter the game was never in doubt, and other than a really bad outing by Rondon and some bullpen chaos, there was little cause for concern for the Tigers’ faithful. The Phil Coke 1 batter experiment really backfired last night (5 pitches, 2 strikes, 1 hit, no outs), and I have to think that his trade value has plummeted to a handful of ham sandwiches. Oh, and Leyland is not happy with Putkonen/Coke right now.

Justin Verlander pitches this afternoon. That’s all I have to say about that.

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A few notes:

– Infante went 1-3 for the White Caps last night. Perez is a capable fill-in and I look forward to seeing him full-time in a few years. But I’m ready for Infante to come back.

– A guy over at ESPN suggests that Castellanos should be the guy to fill the LF hole (you’ll need insider).

– Great article on Fangraphs yesterday about Torii Hunter embracing the #2 spot and a corner OF position.

– I really like the idea of MLB skills competition during the AS game festivities.

– As william pointed out yesterday, we still have 12 games against the White Sox after today.

I’m looking forward to a nice afternoon game. I’ll hold my calls, have lunch at my desk, and chat with Dan and Jim for a few hours.

Lineup to come.

55-44, 1st place, 3.5 games up on Cle (11 games over .500!)

Miggy who? The Tigers (who will be Miggy-less again tonight) put up a 3 spot in the 4th and 6th inning last night to cruise to a 6-2 victory over the White Sox. That is now 3 in a row and a win tonight will lock-up a series win prior to tomorrow’s JV afternoon outing (I’m already nervous).

The hot talk these days surrounds the bullpen, and whether the Tigers will make a deadline deal. Luke Gregorson of the Padres seems to be top of their list. With the emergence of Benoit as the closer, I don’t think the Tigers are looking for a closer as much as they are just help. Apparently the Braves were/are looking at Phil Coke. I’m not sure why. Are LOOGYs that valuable?

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A few notes:

– Jair Jurrjens is back in the organization. The guy was really good for Atlanta for a few years there. He never really recovered from a knee injury in 2011. The kid is still only 27. I like the low risk signing.

– Fox Sports Detroit (I get that channel!) will air batting practice for both the Tigers and Phillies on Saturday beginning around 4:30 PM local time.

– Tigers have the best fans in all of baseball. No other team in MLB has more local TV sets tuned in on their team than the Tigers.

Tonight’s Series Clinching Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Tuiasosopa, LF
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Kelly, 3B
8. Perez, 2B
9. Avila, C

54-44, 1st place, 1.5 games up.

The Tigers are 10 games over for the 7th time this season. They are 0-6 in their previous 6 cracks at 11 over. 7th time’s a charm.

Tonight’s Cabrera Off for a Few Days Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Tuiasosopo, LF
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Avila, C
8. Kelly, 3B
9. Perez, 2B

53-44, 1st place, 2.5 games up on Cle.

Good win last night to cap off a terrible series. I’m still frustrated about JV’s start. I have JV in my Scoresheet league. Here’s my typical  reaction rajectory during a JV start.

1st inning: “That’s okay, just a hit, guess we won’t get a no hitter tonight.”

Later in the 1st inning: “Oh well, just a run, he’ll still lower his ERA a good chunk tonight.”

3rd inning: “Okay, it’s a few runs, but as long as he doesn’t give up more than 3, the Tigers can still comfortably win the game.”

4th inning: “Ahhhh, heck, this will definitely be a fantasy loss with my weak hitting scoresheet team.”

4th inning: “Goodness, his ERA is going to blow up.”

5th inning: “I hate baseball.”

But let’s not overlook the great start by Fister last night, and the shut down 7-8-9 bullpen. I was surprised to see Smyly/Rondon 7-8, but I think that was a situational thing.

The combined pitching line for the five relievers who pitched in the KC series – 7.1IP 3H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 7SO. Salty.

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Anyway, I’ve been meaning to write about the bunt for a while. More often than not these little research jaunts are a way for me to prove a barroom opinion that I was willing to lay down my life for a few nights back. Oftentimes, I end up scrapping the blog post because the research demands that I restate my opinion, or act as if it never happened.

Unfortunately, that’s not the case here.

Before we get started, we need to understand “Run Expectancy.”  Run Expectancy is the number of a runs a team can expect to score given a certain state of affairs. If you Google it you’ll see a bevy of examples. I’m using the 2013 #s over from Baseball Prospectus, but note that the RE is almost the exact same regardless of year (recent year) provided you have a large enough sample size. For starters, here is the difference between a runner on 1st with no outs, and a runner on 2nd with 1 out.

Simply, you shouldn’t bunt, unless you like scoring 25% less runs.

Now let’s take a look at a specific Tigers’ instance.

On Saturday night, the Tigers got the first two men on base in the top of the 8^th. Austin Jackson stepped up with the Tigers down one. Leyland put on the bunt sign.

Here is an abbrievated Run Expectancy (“RE”) matrix for this particular situation.

As you can see from the chart above, the Tigers would be expected to score more runs in the current state of affairs, rather than moving the runners over and sacrificing an out. (For those of you who haven’t spent a lot of time in sabermetrics, outs are to baseball what hearts are to Link in Zelda. Outs are your life force. You should do everything you can to conserve them. You can read about this all over the place. Let me know if you want some good sources.

But to put it bluntly, you do not want to give up outs.

Now, despite calling for a bunt when he shouldn’t have, Leyland was granted a reprieve. The count went to 3-1. 3-1! A great hitters count! This year, on a 3-1 count, Jackson’s OPS is 1.762. After a 3-1 count, his OPS is 1.469. Take off the bunt! I was screaming into my At Bat app, at the hospital, quietly. Take off the bunt!

No matter.

In the end, Jackson did bunt, successfully. But the Tigers failed to score in a 2&3 1 out situation. And they lost the game.

All of that said, I must note that the chances of scoring a run are better in the runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out (~69%) vs. 1st and 2nd with 0 out (~64%). But that is just 1 run. Considering our late inning woes, Leyland should have played for a multi-run inning with a rally opportunity; rather than giving away an out.

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A few notes:

– VMart is hitting .391 with a 1.029 OPS in July. His average is up to .263.

– AJax is 9-53 wit 21 Ks in his past 13. He’s struck out at least once in every game this month.

– Infante is not expected to play in the White Sox series.

Tonight’s Series Opening Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Tuiasosopo, LF
8. Pena, C
9. Perez, 2B

Detroit Tigers: 52-44, 1st Place (1.5 ahead of Cleveland). 

About a month ago I commented that I thought Kansas City, not Cleveland, would end up being Detroit’s closest Central competitor, which looked rather foolish when the Royals ended the first half with 5 consecutive losses, including a three-game sweep by the Indians. Now after taking the first two games from Detroit, the Royals are in a position where another win today would bring them within 5 games of first place (the Indians, like the Tigers, have started the 2nd half 0-2).

The Tigers, for their part, would love nothing more than to get out of Kansas City with a win this afternoon, although the teams won’t have to wait too long to see each other again: the Royals head to Detroit August 15th for a 5-game series (yep), and the teams play each other a total of 11 more times this season.

As has been common this season, the Tigers came up short once again in a 1-run game, which brings their season record in 1-run games to 9-14 (the Royals are an even 17-17, which is an awful lot of 1-run games). Kansas City has now beaten Detroit by 1 run 3 consecutive games.

The Tigers tried to manufacture a run in the 8th inning, and break the 7-9 Dead Zone curse. After Alex Avila singled and Don Kelly got a pinch-hit walk (in his 2nd consecutive game pinch-hitting for Ramon Santiago), Jackson bunted the runners over to 2nd and 3rd, but Hunter and Cabrera were unable to get a run home.

I liked the bunt call. I can understand why there was some grumbling, but consider that Austin Jackson is in an awful slump right now: he is only hitting .202 since returning from the DL, and an awful .139 over the last 2 weeks, with on On-Base % of only .205.  Add to that the Tiger propensity for rally-killing DPs and the fact that a successful bunt almost guarantees a Cabrera at bat with someone on base, and I think it was a great call. Just didn’t work.

*****

Of course Detroit was in a hole to begin with because of another appearance by Bad Justin. There seems to be a little tension between Verlander and Leyland also.

Leyland: Verlander is pitching a bit too careful. [Why is that?]

Leyland: You’ll have to ask him.

Verlander: No I’m not [Then why would Leyland say that?]

Verlander: That’s a question for him.

Well, nobody is happy about losing, right? Anyway Verlander’s velocity was back up, for what it’s worth.

*****

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Victor Martinez. Martinez dusts off his glove while Fielder gets the day at DH. The last two times Martinez has played first he has played some sparkling defense, including this play, which had a good run as the reigning Web Gem.

Today’s Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, DH
5. Martinez, 1B
6. Peralta, SS
7. Dirks, LF
8. Pena, C
9. Santiago, 2B