Detroit Tigers Weblog Live – The Pilot

This is the DTW’s first foray into live web video. The show will kick off at 11 a.m. and you can watch it below. If you’d like to make comments you can head over to the page and join in the chat. I’ll be talking about the Tigers offseason, and the Jack Wilson rumors. Feel free to ask questions and I’ll try to tackle those as well.

I’ll try and archive this for later viewing after the show, and links I mention I will include in this post as well.

UPDATE: The archived version is now up below.


We touched on the Jack Wilson trade rumors, of which I have mixed emotions depending on who the Tigers give up. I pitched Josh Bard over Gerald Laird again. I expressed frustration over the relievers the Tigers are linked to. Mostly I’m worried that I don’t know what direction the Tigers are moving in, is it cost cutting or competing and how much impact will the Big 3 situation effect the payroll.

Thanks to all those who participated and spread the word. Thanks also to my co-host Jade the Beagle.

Links to stuff mentioned


  1. Smoking Loon

    December 5, 2008 at 11:29 am

    Whoa! Super cool! Thank you, Bill, thank you, Ian.

  2. jri

    December 5, 2008 at 12:44 pm

    Cool feature, I’d hop on every Friday or every other Friday to watch this for sure.

  3. BigGulp422

    December 5, 2008 at 1:05 pm

    bilfer, you always talk about batting avg for balls in play and how they are a lot greater than average for a few pitchers, but do you think that maybe the reason for this is just the way they pitch? You use this statistic for a few of your reasons why some pitchers aren’t as bad as they seem, but is the statistic really that meaningful? Maybe some guys just get hit that way. Just wondering what your thoughts are.

  4. billfer

    December 5, 2008 at 1:15 pm


    Excellent question. When looking at BABIP I also like to look at the types of balls being hit. If somebody has a high line drive rate, I’d expect them to have a high BABIP. But sometimes a pitcher, like Nate Robertson this year or Brandon Lyon this year get the same rate of strike outs, walks, and homers, yet their performance fluctuates. Often times it’s tied to either BABIP or left on base percentage (or both). I like looking at BABIP because it’s something that by and large is out of a pitcher’s control. While it’s not predictive, it combined with other metrics like k-rate, line drive rate, walk rate, homer rate, help to tease out what is the pitcher and what is the defense and or luck behind him.

    It works the other way also where a pitcher like Galarraga had a much lower BABIP than can reasonably be expected going forward.

  5. Joey the K in Portland Or

    December 5, 2008 at 3:36 pm

    Great job Bilfer, I liked the video post, sorry I missed it live.

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  8. David

    December 5, 2008 at 5:19 pm

    Billfer – when looking at batting average on balls in play do they look at the speed of the hit? I’ve heard the maxim – .800 BA if you only hit line drives, .250(or .400 I forget which) if all grounders?? and .200 if always flies/popups

    Still, some guys hit the ball harder than others and most guys who don’t have the lighting reactions of an Inge can’t handle it

    Anyways I think this was your GREATEST post in a LONG time, and would love if it(the video interaction) became a weekly/biweekly thing – especially since you haven’t been on the radio in awhile —I think??????

    I hope also that we hear good news and soon, I’m getting impatient

    Plus what is up with Joel Zumaya? has the book closed on him? I’m hoping he’s going to be strong and healthy and dominant for a full season, but it may be wishful thinking…

    Nice pic of Inge btw,
    Granderson also said that we might be looking to get Krod the other day – don’t know the truth to that rumor,
    he also said that Miggy was 2nd in hrs so who knows???

  9. Walt

    December 5, 2008 at 5:22 pm

    Saw most of the stream, and I liked it. Great job.

    You also had another mention on MLBTR too.


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  11. BigGulp422

    December 5, 2008 at 7:23 pm

    o ok thanks billfer i understand

  12. Mike R

    December 5, 2008 at 8:31 pm

    In regards to Nick Punto (since Bill didn’t want to go down that road and I don’t blame him…) here’s what I value you him at:

    -18.6 runs above average for offense, and his CHONE defensive projection has him at +4 runs at 3rd and +3 runs at SS. So, add the 3 runs in, and you get -15.6 runs. Turn that to Wins Above Replacement, and you get 0.514 WAR. Positional adjustment puts him at +1.015 WAR. That converts out to $5.075 million. That’s worse than Cesar Izturis, Jack Wilson, or Adam Everett’s projections for 2009.

  13. Mike R

    December 5, 2008 at 8:46 pm

    Just finished watching it … awesome. Definitely something that you should do again and I would love to see others around the ‘blogosphere’ use it as well. I’d love to sit in on something with the fangraphs team like Dave Cameron or maybe Tom Tango or anyone from the THT crew.

  14. Andrew

    December 5, 2008 at 9:22 pm

    Excellent work, Bill. I’d check this out whenever you have a new show. By the way, did I see some stadium chairs in the background?


  15. billfer

    December 5, 2008 at 11:42 pm

    Thanks for the compliments guys. I do plan on doing it again because it really is pretty easy to set up and do. I’d like to get to 50 viewers if I can. This one we peaked in the low 30’s and averaged about 28.

    Yes, those are stadium chairs you saw in the background.

    BTW-Did you guys know you could leave comments in the archived version of the video? When it gets to a part and you want to say something, click the little plus and you can insert a comment. Pretty nifty.

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