Game 22: Twins at Tigers

by billfer on April 27, 2007 · 92 comments

in 2007 Season,Game Post

PREGAME: The Tigers return home from their 2 city, 3 game road trip to take on the Twins. The Tigers found some offense on the road while the Twins went into a funk. Over the last 5 games Minnesota has only managed 12 runs.

It is a battle of sub 3.00 ERAs tonight on the mound with Nate Robertson taking on Ramon Ortiz.

Ortiz has allowed only 8 extra base hits this season. He’s also only given up 2 walks in 29 innings. Combined with a low K-rate of 3.72/9IP means that there are lots of balls in play, and some pretty quick at-bats.

And here is your interesting stat for the night:
Placido Polanco has only swung and missed 3 times this season That’s right, 3 times. Out of the 139 times he’s taken a hack, he’s missed the ball only 3 times. His last whiff was April 11th against the Orioles meaning he is riding a “contact streak” of 88 swings.

Game Time 7:05

POSTGAME
: It’s a frustrating feeling when no lead feels safe. The starters do their job, only to have the pen undo it. Jim Leyland is sending out his best guys, but no matter who he turns to, the job isn’t getting done.

I put less of the emphasis on the game winning hit. Zumaya followed up the strikeout of Hunter by getting 2 quick ones on Joe Mauer. He then forced a jam shot to center, which is just unfortunate. The bigger problem was the doubles off the wall. Those were the products of 98mph fastball left up. We saw in Chicago that Zumaya couldn’t get the ball down and didn’t have the same velocity. It could be mechanics, it could be injury, but something ain’t right.

Bobby Seay did turn in a nice performance.

By and large the offense did okay. They didn’t strike out, they worked some walks, made the Twins throw some pitches. But Brandon Inge continued to struggle, and as several have mentioned, enough with the check swing K’s. Inge did make an outstanding play on a pop-up early in the game.

 
 

{ 92 comments }

ChicagoJoe April 27, 2007 at 5:25 pm

That is the most amazing stat i have heard in a long time. Polonco for MVP.

Kyle J April 27, 2007 at 5:48 pm

That is truly amazing. I was going to say we should call him “Mini-Ichiro”, but I think that must surpass even what Ichiro is capable of.

Mark P. April 27, 2007 at 6:06 pm

Pudge will be sitting tonight. He has a bruised foot from a foul ball against the CWS. I like Robertson tonight and the Tigers continuing to get better offensively against Ortiz.

Charlemagne Street Cleaner April 27, 2007 at 6:18 pm

Yeah…that is amazing about Polly. I got guys on my softball team who have missed more in the last 4 games.

Steve April 27, 2007 at 6:22 pm

Hey maybe Millan will pick Polanco Saturday

Charlemagne Street Cleaner April 27, 2007 at 6:28 pm

Granderson’s arm is better this year, no doubt.

Adam April 27, 2007 at 6:52 pm

Polanco…I like him. Tigers not seeming as hitty as they have been tonight.

Adam April 27, 2007 at 6:54 pm

Hey, quick question: does a HPB = a BB, statswise?

Adam April 27, 2007 at 6:57 pm

More walks for Ortiz in these 3 inning than his previous 29. Someone’s afraid of Sheffield…

Adam April 27, 2007 at 7:00 pm

He’s already near 70 pitches. Sweet.

Adam April 27, 2007 at 7:02 pm

Ordonez goes to…second?

Steve April 27, 2007 at 7:02 pm

OK, RBI and we are off. The walks we have gotten this year are now runs

Chris Y. April 27, 2007 at 7:04 pm

FTLOG, why is Casey batting sixth???????????

Adam April 27, 2007 at 7:10 pm

Because Monroe, Rabelo and Inge are batting 7th, 8th and 9th. Count this half-inning as a 1-2-3…

It’s like playing with two different teams.

billfer April 27, 2007 at 7:11 pm

Working the magic tonight:
-Hasn’t allowed many XBH – 2 so far
-Only walked 2 all year – 3 so far
-Quick AB’s, 13 pitches per inning – 70 pitches through 3

Adam April 27, 2007 at 7:29 pm

Let’s hope the Robertson run support curse isn’t starting up again.

Walewander April 27, 2007 at 7:42 pm

Wow, Ortiz looks pretty good.

Walewander April 27, 2007 at 7:43 pm

c-Mo dpubled as I typed that – my jinx worked!

I’m more worried about the pen than the run support.

billfer April 27, 2007 at 7:47 pm

I’d really prefer to see Monroe wait for the ball to clear the fence before he begins the trot.

Adam April 27, 2007 at 7:51 pm

No more shut-out…:(

Walewander April 27, 2007 at 7:53 pm

What’s Nate’s pitch count?

Ali April 27, 2007 at 7:56 pm

I’m mystified at the lack of production from Rabelo. He’s now had 13 major league at-bats without a hit. Honestly, he doesn’t look very comfortable at the plate. He’s a .274 hitter in the minors with 350 AB. I wouldn’t expect him to be hitting the lights out, but one hit by now would have been nice.

Maybe when he gets that first hit he’ll settle down. Go Tigers!

billfer April 27, 2007 at 7:56 pm

Nate’s at 88. He’ll probably get the 7th and that’s it.

Charlemagne Street Cleaner April 27, 2007 at 8:01 pm

I’m aware that nobody on God’s earth is interested in someone else’s fantasy baseball world, and I will refrain from every posting about it again. However, I want the world to know that in a keep ‘um league (10 players) I traded Boston SS Lugo for Granderson and a first round and second round draft pick.

Walewander April 27, 2007 at 8:02 pm

Placido’s 2B made me think. Occasionally pitchers with less than outstanding stuff can get an edge and be effective with a quirky delivery – Quiz, Eichorn, Nomo, etc. PP is the only guy I see who still chokes up – does that make it harder for pitchers to approach him?

Walewander April 27, 2007 at 8:03 pm

Nice of the Yanks to curse Sheffield before they traded him.

Charlemagne Street Cleaner April 27, 2007 at 8:04 pm

Play Shef in right, dh maggs problem solved…or should i say, problems solved

Adam April 27, 2007 at 8:04 pm

Hey, so. Um. Remember the whole clutch/nonclutch debate thing we had the other day? Well, they were just talking about Polanco’s RISP percentage…and I’m wondering, how do you even have a stat like that that ends up being so different from BA if the idea of “hitting better in a RBI situation” i.e. – “clutch” didn’t exist?

And I think you mean the 8th, billfer.

Charlemagne Street Cleaner April 27, 2007 at 8:07 pm

Well, all hitters tend to hit better with men in scoring position…i think

Adam April 27, 2007 at 8:07 pm

Or…not 8th. Ha. Get nervous everyone.

Mike R April 27, 2007 at 8:09 pm

Joel Zumaya coming in. We’ll see first hand how “humbled” he was by his “ego” that developed crashing in on him in Chicago.

Charlemagne Street Cleaner April 27, 2007 at 8:09 pm

Zum is going to be light mofo out…watch. prepare for pitching domination

Craig in CA April 27, 2007 at 8:10 pm

I just sat down in front of the computer. I agree with Leyland, going to the pen here is the right move. Nate has pitched a solid game.

Mike R April 27, 2007 at 8:11 pm

I can’t fathom how hard it is to bunt a bal at 98 that perfectly down the 3B line. Great bunt.

Adam April 27, 2007 at 8:14 pm

Screw that.

Charlemagne Street Cleaner April 27, 2007 at 8:14 pm

i’m F*cking jinx…

Adam April 27, 2007 at 8:15 pm

Screw this.

Mike R April 27, 2007 at 8:15 pm

Where is the change up from Joel? Reliever or not, when you’ve got a changeup that was voted “Best in the Organization” after the 2005 season, you may want to break it out at some point.

Charlemagne Street Cleaner April 27, 2007 at 8:16 pm

Zum has major problesm right now. I can see it in his face. He’s afraid to pitch. He has no control of his fastball and is afraid to throw the curve

billfer April 27, 2007 at 8:16 pm

Well, they were just talking about Polanco’s RISP percentage…and I’m wondering, how do you even have a stat like that that ends up being so different from BA if the idea of “hitting better in a RBI situation” i.e. – “clutch” didn’t exist?

I’d tell you that if you take a .301 hitter (like Polanco) and look at 100 plate appearances the 95% confidence interval is .211-.391. So there could be a huge variation.

Also, I’d point to Polanco’s career .242 batting average over 477 plate appearances with RISP and 2 outs.

Adam April 27, 2007 at 8:17 pm

Why can’t we ever just leave Nate in…sucks having other people screw him over by letting his runs score.

billfer April 27, 2007 at 8:19 pm

That was the right time to turn to the pen. Nate had done his job, and had gotten in a little trouble. Pitch count just shy of 100.

Chris Y. April 27, 2007 at 8:19 pm

The “best” bullpen in baseball looks pretty awful right now.

Adam April 27, 2007 at 8:20 pm

Yep. Here we go. DeJesus.

Walewander April 27, 2007 at 8:21 pm

Great, we blew that lead in the time it took me to shave.

Mike R April 27, 2007 at 8:21 pm

1) It’s 0-2 on Mauer and you just busted out a brilliant breaking ball, why come back with the fastball inside.

2) I think he’d benefit much more from throwing the change up.

Ed in OR April 27, 2007 at 8:22 pm

Zumaya didn’t do so hot did he? Rodney finally admitted he was having issues in his neck. I wonder if there’s something Zumaya isn’t telling too.

Adam April 27, 2007 at 8:26 pm

Two words: Guitar Hero.

Adam April 27, 2007 at 8:33 pm

PINCH FOR PUDGE

Charlemagne Street Cleaner April 27, 2007 at 8:34 pm

basehit by inge!!!!

Adam April 27, 2007 at 8:34 pm

And now the clutch hitting debate with Inge comes to a head. Can he do it?

Charlemagne Street Cleaner April 27, 2007 at 8:35 pm

well….he’s like winning a scratch off….hardly ever happens

Adam April 27, 2007 at 8:36 pm

Someone tell Inge to quit with that check-swinging crap. Swing or don’t.

Jeff April 27, 2007 at 8:36 pm

I’d tell you that if you take a .301 hitter (like Polanco) and look at 100 plate appearances the 95% confidence interval is .211-.391. So there could be a huge variation.

Exactly. Going into this season, Polanco’s career RISP average is .309 (854 ABs) vs. a .301 career average (3,812 ABs), that’s statistically insignificant.

The reason why BAs with RISP can vary a lot more than that for a given hitter in a given year or two is sample size.

Grossly oversimplifying, flip a coin 10,000 times and divide it into groups of 100. Roughly 10% of the time you’ll get at least 57 heads and roughly 10% of the time you’ll 43 heads or less. 10% of your flippers are 14%+ better than average, and 10% are 14%+ worse than average. Obviously it’s random, but it sure looks significant.

Okay, none of this makes me feel better about Zoom or Inge.

Mike R April 27, 2007 at 8:36 pm

Inge has to lead the league in check-swing strikeouts. SWING THE BAT.

McB April 27, 2007 at 8:37 pm

Bottom of the lineup is pulling us down bad. It’s been painful to watch the later innings this year.

Charlemagne Street Cleaner April 27, 2007 at 8:39 pm

Jeff, I mean this with all due respect and realize that I’m probably the village idiot here, but at this very moment I could care less about obscure stats….i want to fight Inge

Matt April 27, 2007 at 8:39 pm

ARRRGGGHGHHHHH!!! This sucks…

So far Zumaya looks NOTHING like he did last year, Mauer was waiting for that pitch and did just what he was supposed to.

McB April 27, 2007 at 8:40 pm

We have to take 2 out of 3 this weekend – the division is so tough we can’t let it get too far away this early.

McB April 27, 2007 at 8:41 pm

Some of the pitchers in the NL have a higher batting average than Inge.

Adam April 27, 2007 at 8:42 pm

McB: The fact that it’s this early is a good thing, not a bad one. We’ll be playing the Twins plenty more times this year.

Don’t worry, we still have the walk-off home run by Magglio that’s going to happen.

Charlemagne Street Cleaner April 27, 2007 at 8:44 pm

Jeff, sorry about the misplaced agression. I’ll take out on Mario…he never seems to give a f when things go bad. I’m sure he learned that in journalism school

McB April 27, 2007 at 8:44 pm

I’d like to see Shef get one!

McB April 27, 2007 at 8:45 pm

Charlemagne – I agree – Mario needs to be more like Mickey Redmond!!!!!!

Mike R April 27, 2007 at 8:46 pm

And what they just showed Leyland saying is exactly what I said after the loss to Anaheim on get-away day.

McB April 27, 2007 at 8:47 pm

Time for Nathan to blow his first save.

Ed in OR April 27, 2007 at 8:48 pm

What did Leyland say? I heard Mario say something but the MLB.tv feed cuts stuff off.

Adam April 27, 2007 at 8:49 pm

Damn.

McB April 27, 2007 at 8:50 pm

For some reason this feels more painful than the loss to the Angels.

Adam April 27, 2007 at 8:50 pm

This ump, man. This ump.

Charlemagne Street Cleaner April 27, 2007 at 8:50 pm

He said Inge blows

McB April 27, 2007 at 8:51 pm

Nathan has some crap on the bill of his hat.

Ed in OR April 27, 2007 at 8:52 pm

darn it to heck and all!

Mike R April 27, 2007 at 8:53 pm

Ed: Leyland said that the loss to Anaheim wasn’t a heart breaker because it was a 7-0 game that we battled back to take a lead in when we had a cross country flight staring us in the face later that night and that he was proud that the Tigers battled back. He took it as a great sign instead of “one we let slip away”.

Adam April 27, 2007 at 8:53 pm

Ah well, this is another game the Tigers played well enough to win, save the performance of one or two players.

Today, that player is Zumaya.

Charlemagne Street Cleaner April 27, 2007 at 8:53 pm

damn, my softball rained out, Tigers blow it…it doesn’t feel like Friday night anymore…i have the 27 game sat package…looking forward to the game tom…

McB April 27, 2007 at 8:54 pm

i’ll be there tomorrow too.

McB April 27, 2007 at 8:56 pm

It could be worse. We could be Yankees fans.

Mike R April 27, 2007 at 8:57 pm

I am still completely confused as to how someone freezes Joe Mauer on a breaking ball to run it to 0-2 and then throws him a fast ball pretty much down the middle to give up the game winning hit. I just don’t get get it.

McB April 27, 2007 at 8:59 pm

Zumaya HAS to learn to throw more than his fastball – yes it’s a GREAT pitch, but everyone knows now that is all he throws.

Joey C. April 27, 2007 at 9:09 pm

Looks like we may lose game on everyone in the division tonight.

Stephen April 27, 2007 at 9:11 pm

Hey, any change that Inge, uh, just isn’t very good? He’s 30, has nearly 2500 ab’s and he’s a .239 hitter with a .299 oba. I’m no sabermetrics expert, but i don’t the odds that he’s going to hit even .270 with a .350 oba is that great.

Charlemagne Street Cleaner April 27, 2007 at 9:13 pm

Stephen, you might be right dude….those numbers put it in perspective…he really might be not that good

colin April 27, 2007 at 9:23 pm

Pre-Emptive Note: I’m not arguing that Inge isn’t stinking up the ballpark so far this year.

Inge is .239/.299/.395 career, if you look at his year-by-year stats his batting line improved a lot when he quit catching fulltime in ’04. Prior to that he was among the worst-hitting MLB regulars. So his career line might be a little decieving.

I’m don’t think Inge is capable of putting up a .270 ba with .350 obp this year but if he did and hit a few homers to boot he would be pretty valuable at the hot corner as a two-way player.

Charlemagne Street Cleaner April 27, 2007 at 9:29 pm

if my uncle had tits he’d be my aunt too……Inge sucks…I’d love 270 20 hrs but that aint happening

Bobby April 27, 2007 at 9:40 pm

Chris Y — did you play hockey for the Blues in 84?

colin April 27, 2007 at 9:41 pm

well at least we agree about scratch-off lotto tickets

Rings April 27, 2007 at 9:45 pm

Colin, you’re wishful thinking.
Inge is a heck of an athlete and good guy, but he’s your basic “guess” hitter. He hopes he guesses right and doesn’t miss it.
His career numbers at .239 are better than they should be because they benefit from his one decent statistical year, 2004, when his career average was an overwhelmed .202 from the previous three seasons coming in.
Opponents simply challenged him with straight fastballs that season until he proved he could hit it, which he did for awhile after a trip back to AAA, racking up a .287 average in that season, his “super sub” year.
Since then, he’s moved to third permanently and digressed offensively (except for HR’s, when he guesses right) as opponents now “pitch” to him and mix their approach, as they would to most any non-pitcher.
As discussed above by others in adjusting the sample to the norm, if you take away that one “statistically abnormal season,” his lifetime average sinks to .229.
This year, he’s 19 appearances from the magical “100 appearance” sample size that we’re supposed to use to judge a player’s season and, as we know, he’s hitting .129 and striking out at a .371 rate.
He’s 30 and no longer “young.” He has over 2500 plate appearances and he’s been given every opportunity and respect a player could receive from a franchise, including a shiny new contract.
He’s not going to get better.

colin April 27, 2007 at 9:54 pm

Pre-Emptive Note: I’m not arguing that Inge isn’t stinking up the ballpark so far this year.

“Pre-Emptive” means “designed or having the power to deter or prevent an anticipated situation or occurrence”

I know he’s past his peak and won’t improve, I’ve argued that point already in other game threads from around game 4 or 5 or so when inge was in an 0-fer. Have a good night. Colin

Sam April 27, 2007 at 10:30 pm

Should of brought in Rodney!

We have to cut Zoom, he stinks.

Anybody detect a bit of sarcasm ;-)

Long year guys, be patient. This thing will come down to whoever in the division plays best the last 2 weeks.

-Sam

Kurt April 28, 2007 at 12:38 am

That was nothing short of frustrating, yet again. I hope they’re just getting it out of their systems and it just so happens to be in April…. but I’m not so sure.

Ben in Denver April 28, 2007 at 8:07 am

The shots of Zumaya on the bench really show that he’s rattled. I was glad to see Kenny in the dugout – hopefully he can settle him down.

I’m flying in this weekend and catching the game on Sunday for my first visit to COPA and I’m totally fired up. Sunday looks to be the best weather of the weekend too, so I’m grateful for that. Hate to fly in for a rainout. My seats are 1st base side, and I guess there’s a wheelchair area over there or something because I’m bringing my dad and grandfather. Three generations taking in some Tiger baseball. Should be pretty special.

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