Starting with the assumption that game 4 is played at some point, who do you start in game 5? It appears that the Cardinals are leaning towards Jeff Weaver (tip o the DTW hat to Viva El Birdos). For the Tigers I really think it depends on the outcome of game 4.
If the Tigers even the series, I think they’ll keep the rotation the way it is and hope Justin Verlander is good enough. If the Cardinals do in fact move Weaver up, he’s the one guy the Tigers knocked around in this series. I know the Tigers only scored 3 off of Weaver, but the lack of timely hits is much less a concern than the total lack of timely situations in the other games. If the Tigers have similar success against Weaver, then Verlander doesn’t have to be perfect in a game the Tigers must win.
Now if the Tigers drop game 4 they move into a clinch-avoidance situation. At that point I think Kenny Rogers has to be moved up. I know the desire to keep him pitching in Comerica where’s he’s been dominant. And I know the grief he’ll get in St. Louis with the dirt and such. But saving him for a game that might not happen would be ridiculous.
And just to clear up any confusion I might have raised last night (and it really was MLB.com’s fault), Jeremy Bonderman is still pitching game 4.