36-27, first place 5.5 GA, winning streak at one.

Jackson

Alburquerque

Worth

Commenter mcb brought up an interesting point about the importance of Torii Hunter’s play Monday night on the Salvador Perez 2-run triple. I agree that a conventional back-up of CF Avisail Garcia would have held Perez to a double. Two runs would have scored either way, but with Perez on 2B instead of 3B, the score might have stayed 2-2, which might have changed the complexion of the game later. However, in my view, Hunter was coming on hard and measuring his own play on the ball – no fault there – just before Garcia made the sudden dive and stab at it. There was no time and nothing else for Torii to do but what he did – steer clear and circle back for the ball Garcia missed. All might have gone better, perhaps, if Garcia had yielded to Hunter – who was coming toward a throw in if it dropped – to begin with.

I’m reminded of a couple plays earlier in the season. There was a flyball hit to deep LCF that fell between Andy Dirks and Austin Jackson, won the game for the Twins. That one just made it out there too fast and fell in no man’s land. No fault. Another time (can’t remember the opponent), Matt Tuiasosopo pulled away at the last moment on a flyball hit to LCF nearly to the fence, as Jackson was coming over hard for it himself. Tuiasosopo had a play on that one and gave way out of caution, as a collision must have seemed imminent. I blamed Jackson on that one. I know he can cover a lot of ground, but he was trespassing there.

WRAPPING UP OUR BULLPEN REPORT CARD THRU 60

TIGERS BULLPEN
*172 IP, 4-11 W-L, 3.82 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, .231 BAA, 0.83 HR/9, 9.6/3.9 K/BB-9, 13-21 SvO

205 pitched-in-inning appearances
24.4% RUNS ALLOWED (50 times)
33.7% REACHES/ADVANCES BUT NO RUNS ALLOWED (69 times)
41.9% NOTHING BUT OUTS (86 times)
75.6% NO DAMAGE (155 times)

OTHER BULLPENS (AL AVERAGE?) AGAINST THE TIGERS

279 pitched-in-inning appearances
24.7% RUNS ALLOWED (69 times)
40.9% REACHES/ADVANCES BUT NO RUNS ALLOWED (114 times)
34.4% NOTHING BUT OUTS (96 times)
75.3% NO DAMAGE (210 times)

KANSAS CITY ROYALS BULLPEN (A GOOD ONE)
*155 IP, 12-9 W-L, 2,79 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .225 BAA, 0.87 HR/9, 8.3/3.3 K/BB-9, 17-25 SvO

184 pitched-in-inning appearances
21.7% RUNS ALLOWED (40 times)
39.7% REACHES/ADVANCES BUT NO RUNS ALLOWED (73 times)
38.6% NOTHING BUT OUTS (71 times)
78.3% NO DAMAGE (144 times)

* Thru 62 games

Note the rather slim margin between average and good. Interesting.

DETROIT INDIVIDUAL

Let’s abbreviate REACHES/ADVANCES as “H” and NOTHING BUT OUTS as “Z” and then rank Tigers relievers in the NO DAMAGE category (the RUNS ALLOWED ranking running exactly opposite, of course):

PORCELLO 100% (Z-100%) 2 Innings Pitched In
ORTEGA 87% (H-47%, Z-40%) 15 IPI
BENOIT 86% (H-41%, Z-45%) 29 IPI
SMYLY 85% (H-40%, Z-45%) 40 IPI
VALVERDE 81% (H-31%, Z-50%) 16 IPI
PUTKONEN 80% (H-40%, Z-40%) 10 IPI
COKE 72% (H-20%, Z-52%) 25 IPI
DOWNS 71% (H-21%, Z-50%) 28 IPI
ALBURQUERQUE 68% (H-42%, Z-26%) 19 IPI
REED 67% (H-67%) 3 IPI
DOTEL 57% (H-28%, Z-28%) 7 IPI
RONDON 50% (H-25%, Z-25%) 4 IPI
VILLAREAL 14% (H-14%) 7 IPI

So… there’s something to chew on. I’ll chew on it for a while myself, and be back with a different subject of statistical inquiry next time around.

Post-game to follow.

POST-GAME: Royals 3, Tigers 2 (10 innings). Jose Valverde is not a popular fellow. Let us not forget, however, that Smyly allowed Hosmer to reach. And then there are all those missed opportunities and a few crappy, crucial at bats from hitters who ought to know better. Several culprits in this one. Verlander was dominant, more so than in many a game where he tossed double-digit K’s (8 today). James Shields was quite good as well, and it was another duel between the two, but the Tigers managed to find a few chinks in Shields’s armor. The story of the game – before it fell apart – was the outstanding defense behind both pitchers. (Well, Peralta’s sailing throw that would have been an error but for a lucky bounce back doesn’t count – but he made a great stop on Butler’s grounder to begin the play). There was 1B Eric Hosmer on Tuiasosopo’s scorching liner. There was RF David Lough robbing Cabrera of a double with a lunge and tumble catch for an out. Santiago at 2B made two outstanding plays in the 3rd. Fielder snatching Elliot Johnson’s liner and getting the unassisted DP at 1B. The enviable range of SS Alcides Escobar on Don Kelly’s bid for an RBI single up the middle to get the 3rd out of the 8th. The Tigers had chipped in runs in the 1st (Fielder bloop scores Garcia) and 5th (back to back doubles by Tui and Pena), and did get 1 run from a fine game of small ball (3 sac bunts??). After 7, the mighty Justin seemed in line for his 9th win, bullpen willing. Before we beat on them, let’s mention the missed opportunities. Martinez GIDP with 2 on in the 1st. Pena at 3B, one out in the 5th, bupkus from Garcia and Hunter. Tuiasosopo K with 2 on in the 6th to end the threat and inning (not a bad AB, though). Pena on 2B, one out in the 7th, Garcia and Hunter AGAIN (punched out by Shields). 2 on and none out in the 8th, nothing from Martinez-Peralta-Kelly. Now it’s the bottom of the 9th, 2-0 Tigers. I was so happy to see Smyly start the inning. I shouldn’t have been, because Hosmer found his first pitch as predictable as I did. Failure against the one guy he was going to face – not good. Nervous time. Valverde in. It went well for a while. He was pitching pretty well. Got Butler to chase the high heat for a legitimate K this time. 2 outs! Hosmer takes 2B, though. Only Mr. 3 K’s (against Verlander) Lorenzo Cain to get. The count goes to 0-2. You don’t throw what Valverde did here. Cain ties it, 2-run homer to LF. Here’s where it gets really ugly. Next batter Lough, groundball, Miggy flat out drops the 3rd out. Coke comes in. Before a pitch is thrown, Coke goes to 1B – they’ve got Lough at 1B hung up! PRINCE now flat out drops the 3rd out, and Lough takes 2B. In the 10th, Hunter and Cabrera looked foolish against Greg Holland, and Fielder not much better. Against Coke (why?), the Royal small-balled their way to the inevitable two-out walkoff hit (RBI single by Hosmer). Tigers now 2-7 in extras. One of the most demoralizing losses of the season, an absolutely GUTLESS late-inning showing. On this hot and breezy day, some of the Tigers couldn’t stand it and left the kitchen early. If Leyland didn’t read them the Riot Act about this one, he must be saving the rage for later.

THE ALL-STAR TEAM

C Pena
1B Hosmer
2B Santiago
SS Escobar
3B Moustakas
LF Tuiasosopo
CF Cain
RF Lough
DH Butler
P Verlander

RULE 5 DRAFT PICK: James Shields, Miguel Tejada

DFA: Jose Valverde

Congratulations to Jose Alvarez on a fine 1st MLB victory yesterday. Thank you, Donkey Kong! Thanks also to Miguel Cabrera for the comedy of throwing his gum at Ryan Raburn rounding the bases after the HR. (It was Raburn who hit the HR, unfortunately. Sorry for the confusion. But it would have been funny either way.)

The Detroit Tigers (35-26, 5.5 games up in 1st place, winning streak at 4), after a 5-1 home stand that we mostly complained about (ha ha), begin their latest road trip with a three-game series at Kaufman Stadium against the Kansas City Royals (28-32, 3rd place, 6.5 GB). The two teams split a pair earlier this season when the Royals looked tough to beat. Since then, Detroit has ascended in a two steps forward (starting pitching), one step back (bullpen and where have the bats gone) manner that characterizes the entire season, while Kansas City, I have heard, has fallen from grace largely due to the disappearance of its offense. Kaufman Stadium, you may recall, is where Miggy got the standing O last October when his Triple Crown achievement was announced. Classy. Although I seem to also recall some not-so-classy reaction from the KC crowd at the 2012 All-Star Game that also made headlines. Don’t remember what that was about.

Monday. June 10, 8:10 PM EDT: RHP Doug Fister (5-3, 3.27) v. RHP Jeremy Guthrie (6-3, 3.66)

We all remember Fister’s 9 straight Ks against the Royals (at Comerica) last season. What we’ve forgotten is that his very next start was also against them, at Kaufman Stadium, and while it wasn’t a disaster, it was labored and ineffective, and he lasted only 4.1 (believe it or not, he also hit a batter). Guthrie happened to be his opponent that game, and picked up the win with a quality start. Current Tigers have a lot of history with Guthrie, and they have – unequivocally – hit him hard. Current Royals have a goodly amount of PA vs. Fister, but have hit him for average more than damage.

Tuesday, June 11, 8:10 PM EDT: RHP Max Scherzer (8-0, 3.24) v. RHP Wade Davis (3-5, 5.66)

These pitchers faced each other in Detroit on April 24, and neither fared well in a game the Tigers eventually won (that also marked the return of Jose Valverde). Scherzer made his poorest start of the season (in 5 IP) but still picked up the win, while things just kind of progressively fell apart for Davis in his 3.2, with assistance from an untimely error by 3B Eric Hosmer Mike Moustakas (duh). It should be noted that .197-at-the-time V-Mart was 2 for 3 with 2 RBI off Davis.

Wednesday, June 12, 2:10 PM EDT: RHP Justin Verlander (8-4, 3.71) v. RHP James Shields (2-6, 2.81)

The last Verlander/Shields matchup was April 25 at Comerica, and it was a good and evenly matched one with no decision for either in a game later decided (in the 10th) by one of the more notable Tigers bullpen implosions this season.

WEATHER: The KC area forecast is all warmth and sunshine through Wednesday.

All stats current as of June 8.

MEET THE ROYALS: HITTING: .258 AVG (Tigers .283), .312 OBP (.350), .371 SLG (.434), .682 OPS (.785), 232 R (313), 31 HR (66), 45 of 55 SB (19 of 24). STARTING PITCHING: 3.86 ERA (Tigers 3.51), .268 BAA (.241), 1.32 WHIP (1.15), 289/110 K/BB (411/90), 54 HR (24). BULLPEN: 150 IP (Tigers 169), 11-9 W-L (4-11), 2.88 ERA (3.89), .228 BAA (.230), 1.21 WHIP (1.29), 138/55 K/BB (180/74), 15 HR (16). DEFENSE: .983 FPCT (Tigers .990), .694 DefEff (.682), 50 DP (44), 69% SBPCT (78%), OF ASSISTS 16 (6), UNEARNED RUNS 23 (13).

What should give the Tigers the edge is hitting. Aside from DH Billy Butler and LF Alex Gordon, production from the lineup has become a struggle for KC. You can see from the 31 HR and .371 SLG that the Royals are a team in need of manufactured runs that aren’t being manufactured. However, Detroit bats had best not go into famine mode here. The advantage swings to KC if the scores are low, and even if the Tigers managed to come away with 2 of 3, we don’t want another Mariners series, do we? No. We want domination, or at least two solid thumpings.

A TIGERS BULLPEN REPORT CARD THRU 60 GAMES

What the overall odds (Tigers 2013) are for the following per-pitcher, per-inning bullpen appearance results:

40% Nothing but outs
33% Reaches/advances but no runs during or after
24% Runs allowed
*3% Reaches/advances that later scored
73% No damage (combining the first two categories)

NOTHING BUT OUTS

(100% Porcello in 2 IP)

52% Coke
50% Valverde
46% Downs
44% Benoit
43% Smyly
40% Ortega
40% Putkonen

(Hey, the above is was the current bullpen. What a coincidence.)

29% Dotel
25% Alburquerque
25% Rondon
*0% Reed
*0% Villareal

REACHES/ADVANCES BUT NO RUNS DURING/AFTER

20% Downs
20% Coke
25% Rondon
29% Dotel
31% Valverde

38% Smyly
40% Benoit
40% Alburquerque
40% Putkonen
47% Ortega
57% Villareal
67% Reed

REACHES/ADVANCES THAT LATER SCORED

3% Benoit

5% Smyly
5% Alburquerque
7% Downs

(All others 0%)

RUNS ALLOWED

13% Benoit
13% Ortega
14% Smyly
19% Valverde
20% Putkonen

27% Downs
28% Coke
30% Alburquerque
33% Reed
43% Dotel
43% Villareal
50% Rondon

NO-DAMAGE % (Porcello at 100%, of course)

87% Ortega
83% Benoit
81% Smyly
81% Valverde
80% Putkonen

72% Coke
67% Downs
67% Reed
65% Alburquerque
57% Dotel
50% Rondon
14% Villareal

Tell me your bottom line on all this. Are we being too hard on the Tigers pen? Without MLB-wide averages on % of “Nothing but outs,” etc., that’s a hard question to answer. For Jose Valverde in particular, it’s clear enough that his results have been good, and yet we decry his lack of stuff and forecast doom. And I obviously need to rethink my position on Benoit and Putkonen, among others. (Jose Ortega has been optioned to Toledo to make room for fill-in starter Jose Alvarez, by the way. You’d imagine that this is just a temporary roster shuffle and that Ortega will be back, pending the return to the rotation of formerly sore-shouldered Anibal Sanchez.)

Austin Jackson, who has missed nearly half the season now with the hamstring injury (the caution is understandishable), is to begin a rehab assignment with Toledo today (Monday). Meanwhile, the even longer-absent Octavio Dotel has become a popular attraction at early summer cookouts, his elbow apparently so inflamed that he’s able to grill burgers and brats on his bare arm. Dotel has been placed anew on the DL, I hear. 60-day.

Coleman’s game post/game result success continues. He’s 15-8, while Kevin is back in the race at 12-9 and I bring up the rear at 8-9 (not my fault, I tell you). I think it’s only fair to ask Coleman to provide tonight’s lineup(s) and rub some of his good luck off on this game.

Post-game will be right back here.

POST-GAME: Royals 3, Tigers 2. Well, you knew where this one was going after 3, didn’t you? Tigers fall behind, they tend to stay behind. But they were on top 2-0 first, on the strength of Cabrera’s long HR to LF in the 3rd off of Jeremy Guthrie with Hunter at 2B. Detroit was hitting Guthrie all evening. Trouble is, the balls kept ending up in the outfielder’s gloves, however deep or shallow they may have been hit. 10 flyball outs for Guthrie, 0 strikeouts. With the first run support of any kind in ages to work with, Fister promptly gave it all back in the bottom half. The mistake that cost him the game was the pitch to Salvador Perez that ended up in the RCF gap for a game-tying triple. Don’t miss Austin Jackson? See Garcia’s diving attempt? Now you do. The go-ahead run for KC scored with Perez at 3B and Lorenzo Cain beating out a grounder to Peralta at SS. Don’t fault Jhonny. Credit Cain – effective contact + speed. Strength of the Royals, weakness of the Tigers. It can make a difference in games like this, and obviously did. Fister (13 groundball outs and 2 DPs behind him) pitched well, and Guthrie pitched well. The flyball game turned out to be the better approach, and Doug came away with an 8-inning CG loss. So if there’s a bullpen to blame, it’s the other team’s this time. The last serious chance for Detroit came in the 7th, men on 1st and 2nd, one out when Aaron Crow relieved Guthrie. Cabrera’s swinging strikeout against Crow was the last gasp. What had led off the inning suddenly loomed larger – Infante had been robbed of a base hit by LF Alex Gordon’s diving catch. The defensive play of the game for the Tigers was the K-CS DP in the 4th that ended the inning. Alcides Escobar took strike three and Chris Getz took off for 2B. Avila’s throw was strong but to the SS side of the bag, and it took a strong effort by Infante to get the runner on a very close call that the Tigers might have caught a break on. That was a turning point that kept it close. Oddly, the Tigers didn’t seem to know there were 3 outs right away. Maybe no one heard the strikeout call.

THE ALL-STAR TEAM

C Perez
1B Hosmer
2B Infante
SS Peralta
3B Cabrera
LF Gordon
CF Cain
RF Hunter
DH Butler
P Guthrie

RULE 5 DRAFT PICK: Aaron Crow

DFA: No one, really. Maybe Leyland for not pinch-hitting Tui somewhere…

34-26, 4.5 games up on Cle.

(never mind the bad digital editing in the image above)

Another good win for the Tigers yesterday afternoon, another poor showing for Valverde. Fielder’s bases clearing double put the Tigers in the lead for good, and Ricky P turned in his 3 straight quality start (and 7th in 10 games) to bring his ERA below 9. He’s a fantastic #5 guy.

Remember all that bad luck I talked about that JV is getting? Well Valverde’s getting all of the good luck. His BABIP against this year is .179 and his FIP is 5.62, yet his ERA is only 4.02. Over his last 5 appearances, Valverde has allowed 9 hits and 1 walk in 4 2/3. That’s a 2.14 WHIP. His (mild success) is a fluke and unless he starts throwing his splitter more often, I don’t see anyway for him to remain the closer for much longer.

Today’s replacement starter is Jose Alvarez. To me, bringing up Alvarez instead of using Smyly (who is well rested), signals to me that Smyly is in the long-term plans for the Tigers. If they were hoping to flip him for a reliever, he’d be auditioning today. My guess is still that Porcello will be dealt for a reliever and a prospect in the near future. We can win the Central with Valverde, but we can’t win the AL with him as our closer.

Alvarez is a 24 year old lefty who has been phenomenal so far this year at Toledo.He currnetly leads the International League with 76 strikeouts and ranks second with a 2.42 ERA. Alvarez was signed to a minor league contract last November after 3 years in the Red Sox farm system. He took steps backwards at ages 22 and 23, which is why Boston let him go. He doesn’t have much time to figure it out, but he’s making strides.

*******

A few notes:

– Walk Miguel Cabrera and get burned. Following Cabrera’s last 15 walks, Fielder is 9-14 with a BB and 13 RBI.

– Great article on Grantland today about Chris Davis and the adjustments he’s made. Chris Davis is fascinating to me stemming from his time in Texas, but he looks to be Miggy’s early season MVP co-candidate.

Today’s Series Sweeping Sunday Lineup.

1. Dirks, LF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Kelly, CF
7. Avila, A
8. Santiago, SS
9. Infante, 2B

33-26, 1st place, 3.5 games ahead of Cle.

Good win last night, great effort by everyone except for Jose Valverde. He was flat out awful. I am certain that he won’t be closing games much longer. I can’t help but wonder if Valverde is the cause for the Verlander/Leyland miff from last night. (Miff seems appropriate, as i don’t think it qualifies as an imbroglio). In case you missed it, Verlander whimsically sought to avoid the Leyland “good game, you’re done” shake after a 7 pitch 7th last night (and rightfully so). Leyland didn’t find it to be very funny. I wouldn’t generally classify Leyland as having a “sense of humor”, but Verlander’s smirk let the whole world know what he was thinking. But I think that Leyland’s reaction after the game may have been caused by Valverde’s home run derby tryout. Here’s what I’m thinking:

The Tigers have a comfortable lead, at home, against the division rival, for now. A 4 run lead with your ace on the mound and at a reasonable pitch count is no time to think about your closer. But because of Valverde’s struggles, Leyland has to get him some easy work. So he makes the decision to go Benoit/Valverde to make it look like it was his plan to do a standard 8 – 9 routine. Then Valverde comes in and gets lit up like the 4th of July, so JL is in no mood to discuss JV (or get second guessed on anything). Thus his response.

DD – the clock is ticking.

*****************

A few quick notes.

– Tigers are 20-10 at home this year, 13-16 on the road.

– Tigers starts have posted a quality start in 13 of the team’s last 14 starts, and their ERA is 2.58 during that stretch.

– Anibal Sanchez scratched for tomorrow, Jose Alvarez up. More on him tomorrow.

I’m looking for VMart to keep up his hot bat, as he’s a career .500 hitter off of Carrasco (tiny print – that’s 1-2). To follow-up on yesterday’s JV post, that could have very easily been a 1 ER game. We’re seeing Hunter’s range diminish by the game. Still a very valuable player, but that’s just aging.

Today’s Lineup:

1. Dirks, LF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Peralta, SS
6. Peralta, SS
7. Avila, C
8. Infante, 2B
9. Garcia, 2B

32-26, 1st place, 2.5 games up on Cle.

Well, the Tigers are a frustrating 4-6 over their last 10, including 3 games where they failed to score a run in the first 9 innings of the game, but yet they managed to pick up a game on the struggling Tribe, losers of four straight. In fact, as stephen likes to allude to from time to time, the Central is so bad that the Tigers .400 winning percentage over the last 10 games is good for 2nd best in the division. CWS may be the worst team in the AL here soon, they are certainly playing like it these days.

Nice series against Tampa Bay, who had a better record than us coming into the series. We’ve got to win series at home.

******

JV climbs the hill tonight for the Tigers, so this gives us an opportunity to examine his recent starts to see if we can identify some causes for his struggles. Thank you Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference for the research tools.

Over his last 5 starts, JV is averaging 5 1/3 IPs, 7.4 hits, 7.4 Ks, 2.2 walks, and 4.4 ER per game. That translates into a 7.42 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 12.5 K/9 and 3.71 BB/9. Concerning right?

Maybe not.

– Obviously, the ERA is egregious, and it could be explained by the outrageous 2 2/3 8 ER outing versus Texas. If we remove that game, however, his ERA over the other 4 is still a seemingly unacceptable 5.25. But if we look at his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), things come into focus a bit more. With the Texas game, his FIP over the last 5 is 3.59, which is a little above average.  If we remove the Texas game, his FIP over the other four games is 2.98, which is fantastic. As a barometer – his career FIP is 3.37; in 2011 in was 2.99, and last year it was 2.94. This year it’s still at 2.60 for the whole season. Salty. More on this in a bit.

– The 1.79 WHIP is, in my mind, even uglier than the ERA. But there’s an easy explanation. The BABIP against JV over the last 5 games is an unbelievable (and unsustainable) .446. This is for a pitcher with a career BABIP of .287. This can be partially explained by the Tigers’ general lack of infield (and recently outfield) range, but it’s also a function of good luck on the part of the opposing batters. If you took at look at BABIP on a game by game basis, 4 of his worst 5 games this season come from the last 5 games. (Note that game by game basis is not really helpful b/c of the small sample size, but looking at these last 5 games against his 12 starts this year does, in my mind, support the bad luck theory.)

– Finally, his K rate of 12.5 over his last 5 games is significantly better than his career rate of 8.53, and in fact, his 10.73 K/9 this year would be the best in his career. Yes, he’s walking a few more this year than usual (2.96 in 2013 v. 2.73 career), but it’s not a huge variance.

So, all in all, despite what has been an awful stretch by his standards, JV is arguably pitching better now that his career norm. It’s been some bad bloops and bad ballparks that have caused the spike in traditional pitching metrics. (Progressive, Oriole, & Rangers ballparks are all top 10 in HR this year). Now, FIP attempts to remove many elements of luck, and rewards Ks and low BB rates, which is why JV’s FIP over the last 5 is so different from this actual ERA. But high Ks and low BBs is a very good thing. And this is strong evidence that we should not be worried one bit about Verlander. (Well, I’ll admit that his 1 mph less FB velocity is intriguing, but I’ll save that for later).

******

Tonight’s starter, Ubaldo Jimenez is, not very good anymore. In his last 10 starts he’s registered only 4 of the quality kind, including 1 ER over 6 IPs at Comerica on May 11th. His last outing was his best of the season, when he held Tampa Bay to just 4 hits and 1 BB over 8 innings. But on the season he’s posting a 4.83 ERA (4.21 FIP) and 1.26 WHIP. He strikes out lot of batters, his 9.05 K/9 this season is the best of his career, but he also averages 4+ walks per nine (2013 and career).  Cabby (.972 career OPS), Fielder (.814), VMart (1.002), and Peralta (1.094) all rake v. Ubaldo. So on screens, things look very promising for tonight’s match-up. But we’ve read that before.

I don’t really see Cleveland as a threat or contender, but a good three game set by them in Detroit coming off of a bad spell could give them a needless boost. I’d like to see JV put any worries about his recent performance to bed, and put us in a take 1/2 position over the weekend to take the series. It should happen.

Someone please post the lineups later today, as I’ve got a drinking event this afternoon.

Detroit Tigers: 31-26, 1st Place (2 ahead of Cleveland).

This afternoon’s game will be a rubbery affair between Detroit and Tampa Bay who have split the first two of the series, but also between Detroit’s Feast or Famine offense, who put up 10 runs Tuesday but 0 last night.  The indicator is twitching toward the Feast side of the dial, with Max Scherzer on the mound. Max so far this season has gotten run support to the tune of 8+ runs per 9 innings. This would seem to be random luck, but perhaps Max has special powers. I have been unable to verify the rumor that Doug Fister has been following Max around in an attempt to learn his secret.

At any rate, Fister had another great outing last night. Until the Rays finally broke through in the 9th inning, Fister had put together a stretch of 21 consecutive scoreless innings–a stretch in which the Tigers scored a total of 2 runs. Detroit did support him with some good defense, including a great unassisted double-play by the much-maligned Alex Avila. But no real hitting to speak of–or great pitching by Cobb, depending on which side of the coin is facing up–and a couple of failed attempts to manufacture something (a failed SB with a runner on 3rd and 1 out, a failed sac bunt), and the Tigers came up empty.

Today the Tigers face Roberto Hernandez, if that’s really his name. Tiger fans probably best remember Hernandez (in his younger guise as Fausto Carmona) for playing a tune on Gary Sheffield’s noggin.

*****

Whether the Tigers go Feast or Famine today, or even that rare 4-run game, we will probably know fairly early in the game. For whatever reason (I have no explanation for you), the Tigers don’t seem able to score runs in the last 1/3 of the game.

The average AL team has scored 71 runs so far this season in innings 7-9; the Tigers have only scored 53, just nosing out Seattle (52) for that 14th of 15 spot. Their inning 7-9 OPS (.631) is also 14th ahead of only Cleveland (.615. Maybe that’s why Cleveland is struggling?). Their late-inning slugging really suffers, with a dead-last (by a comfortable margin) Slugging % of only .322

*****

And I would be remiss if I did not point out that David Spade is throwing out the first pitch before today’s game. Just because.

*****

Today’s Player of the Pre-Game:  Prince Fielder. Joe Maddon and the Rays will not be shy about walking Cabrera another two times today, or even more if the situation dictates. Prince struck out after both intentional walks last night, but previously had a spree of RBI hits following Cabrera walks. What Prince does today may make the difference in the game.

Today’s Max Run Support Lineup:

1. Dirks, LF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, DH
5. Martinez, 1B
6. Peralta, SS
7. Avila, C
8. Infante, 2B
9. Kelly, CF

Loon gets his wish and Kelly takes over CF from Garcia

Detroit Tigers: 31-25, 1st Place (2 ahead of Cleveland).

Despite leaving all of 12 runners on base (including failing to score with bases loaded and nobody out), the Tigers offense was in Feast mode against the previously 8-0 Matt Moore, knocking him out after 2 innings on their way to a 10-1 victory. Anibal was again in Ace mode, although he didn’t need it with all the run support. Not that that mattered to Sanchez:  “No matter how many runs we score … I don’t want to allow any runs,” Sanchez said. “If we make a lot of runs, the other team can do it, too, so we have to keep the same game.”

But runs they did score, and the Tigers have now scored 10+ runs a league-leading 8 times (and have given up 10+ only 3).  Perhaps that is why oddsmakers have the Tigers down as favorites to win the World Series. If only they could do something about those 1-run games (6-9).

*****

Of course the big news in baseball, and for the Tigers, is the brewing story reported by ESPN’s Outside the Lines that as many as 20 MLB players are facing suspensions of up to 100 games for performance-enhancing drug use, including Detroit’s own Jhonny Peralta (the leaked names are listed here).

Peralta’s name originally surfaced in connection with Biogenesis–whose Director Tony Bosch’s cooperation with MLB has set the current scandal in motio–in February. At the time Peralta released this statement: “I have never used performance-enhancing drugs. Period,” Peralta said in a statement released by his attorney, Barry Ross. “Anybody who says otherwise is lying.” Peralta has given a “no comment” in response the the current story.

As well as the scope and solidity of the investigation (the alleged drug provider providing names), the unique aspect here is the rumored threat of the 100-game, 2nd Offense suspension for those involved, using a strange argument that lying about not using performance-enhancing drugs constitutes another PED offense. I suspect that the 100-game suspension threat is being used as a bargaining chip for encouraging cooperation with the investigation (in return for “reduced” penalties).

At any rate, I suspect this will be a long process: there will be insinuations, more leaks, investigators assigned, depositions, suspensions, appeals, testimony, lawsuits, who knows what. There is a good summary of various legal angles the players could take here, just for starters.

*****

So what does this mean for the Tigers and Peralta? Even if Peralta is found guilty by MLB, I have a hard time imagining he would get the 100-game version suspension, and have a hard time imagining the process working itself out by the end of the season. What is certain is that the scandal will create an unending distraction, which at the very least will include a lot of media attention, and may include Peralta having to meet with investigators or even testify. In addition to having his name on The List, I think it would be naive to not think that there will be assumptions made about Peralta’s turnaround this season, playing almost 200 OPS points higher this season than last, and more than 100 points above his career average. Whether or not Peralta can keep his focus amidst these distractions will be a big story this season.

Either way, I agree with Jason Beck about one of the big issues the story raises–the Tigers don’t have a Plan B at shortstop, either on the team on in the minors.

****

Speaking of legal matters, as the Tigers prepare for their upcoming three-game series with Cleveland, Indians closer Chris Perez has narcotics agents investigating a delivery to his home.

*****

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Jhonny Peralta. Jhonny tries to keep his focus on the field, and keep up the hitting.

Today’s Lookin’ to Feast Lineup:

1. Dirks, LF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, DH
5. Martinez, 1B
6. Peralta, SS
7. Avila, C
8. Infante, 2B
9. Garcia, CF

Detroit Tigers: 30-25, 1st Place (1 ahead of Cleveland).

It’s a big week in the D: Detroit take on the tough Tampa Bay Rays (who, while in 4th place, have a better record than the Tigers), then have a 3-game set with the Cleveland Indians.

The Tigers just got back from a 1-4 road trip, in which they scored 20 runs (decent, right, that’s 4 per game), but in which they also had 8 runs in one inning, and 12 in the other 46 (oh…not so good). This may explain why they have a skewed Pythagorean win number (as Stormin’ Norman pointed out, and as we pointed out here after Game 48).

At any rate, the Tigers have trouble “manufacturing” runs, which is not news to the DTW readers–Alex Avila’s bunt DP probably generated as much comment as anything so far this season.  The team is beginning to show its 2012 Feast-Or-Famine form, where they alternate blow-outs with no-show-outs, punctuated by inning 7-9 narcolepsy.

The Tigers are batting a combined .216 through innings 7-9 this year, with a paltry .616 OPS, which is better than all of one team in the AL. The good news is that that one team is the Indians, but this does not exactly bode well for a playoff run. ( A classic example was Sunday’s game against the Orioles: O’Day got through the 8th inning with 4 pitches–and gave up a hit! the whole thing took less than 5 minutes).

*****

In other news Quintin Berry was claimed by the Royals. I predict he will steal 20 bases against Detroit in his brief time with Kansas City.

*****

Then there is the “Sponsored Headlines” section of the ESPN previews. I mean, what’s up with that? “Kristen Stewart Leaves Little to the Imagination?” Or “21 Facts About Dogs That Will Make You Blow Your Mind?” I mean, seriously.

*****

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Anibal Sanchez. With Moore on the mound for TB and the Tiger bats in full Feast-Or-Famine mode, Anibal has small margin for error.

Today’s Home Cookin’ Lineup:

1. Infante, 2B
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, DH
5. Martinez, 1B
6. Peralta, SS
7. Tuiasosopo, LF
8. Pena, C
9. Garcia, CF

30-24, .5 ahead and in first place, winning streak at 1. Torii “300” Hunter is back in the lineup and Rick Porcello throws sinkers, so today’s victory is, of course, assured. The stone glove, Teflon hands, and paper bat of Ramon Santiago will not prevent it! Sorry, Ramon. I’m sure you’ll have a good game.

VERLANDER

JACKSON

SCHERZER

MR. POTATO-HEAD

CABBY

QUINTIN BERRY & FRANCISCO WHO?

TUIPLUNKOSOSOPO

Nothing “heavy” as threatened, but here’s a little statistical potpourri. Well, not even potpourri, really; just a coupla things:

A look at BA v. BABIP. Differential between ’em is the thing to look at.

2013 BA/BABIP* (CAREER BA/BABIP)

Tuiasosopo .333/.415 (.212/.288)
Peralta .328/.403 (.267/.313)
Cabrera .369/.380 (.320/.347)
Hunter .312/.367 (.278/.309)
Jackson .272/.336 (.280/.367)
Pena .307/.323 (.252/.270)
Infante .294/.309 (.276/.307)
Garcia .270/.308 (.298/.365)
Fielder .270/.300 (.287/.322)
Dirks .247/.273 (.282/.314)
Martinez .230/.247 (.300/.313)
Avila .173/.220 (.252/.315)
Kelly .173/.177 (.226/.244)
Santiago .135/.167 (.243/.279)

*League average is .256/.298

PITCHING OPS-AGAINST*

Villareal 1.426
Rondon 1.227
Dotel 1.125
Coke .751
Porcello .738
Reed .733
Verlander .710
Ortega .699
Alburquerque .688
Fister .665
Downs .640
Sanchez .606
Benoit .577
Scherzer .568 (who has a high XHB%!?)
Putkonen .558
Smyly .539
Valverde .529 (his BAA/BABIP-against are the same at .156 – this is weird)

*League average is .735

HITTING: OPS PLATOON SPLITS, RHP/LHP*

Avila .648 R / .132 L (not a typo, and no, this is not BA, but OPS)
Fielder .800 R / 1.025 L
Infante .713 R / .797 L
Peralta .795 R / 1.054 L
Cabrera 1.064 R / 1.364 L
Martinez .616 R / .566 L
Dirks .705 R / .573 L
Jackson .689 R / .758 L
Hunter .798 R / .743 L
Tuiasosopo 1.185 R / .831 L
Pena 1.054 R / .529 L
Kelly .572 R / .706 L (crucial that he gets the start against righties, eh?)
Santiago .432 R / .517 L
Garcia 1.167 R / .600 L

*Team totals are .771 R / .790 L

Today’s “String Beans To Utah” lineups:

DETROIT

Dirks LF
Hunter RF
Cabrera 3B
Fielder 1B
Martinez DH
Peralta SS
Avila C
Santiago 2B
Garcia CF

BALTIMORE

Oh, the usual, I suppose. Actually, DH Dickerson has taken Wieters’s spot in the lineup, and Snyder is in at C.

Do not come back for the post-game, but instead be vewy vewy quiet. I’m hunting wabbit.

POST-GAME: Orioles 4, Tigers 2. This one slipped away in a most unpleasant manner. Once again, a struggling rookie held the Tigers (mostly) (largely) in check. Kevin Gausman got Cabrera for 2 GIDP and a strikeout. Say what? Miguel Cabrera? Porcello started out looking like the expected groundballs were all going to be line drives instead, but then settled down, and settled down GOOD. He struck out Adam Jones 3 times, carved Mr. Hyper-Gum right up, as a matter of fact. Rick was helped along in his transition by a 2nd-inning great catch in RF by Hunter on J.J. Hardy’s fast-receding deep flyball. The only damage done against Gausman was in the 4th, Fielder’s solo bomb to RCF on the same pitch Fielder had just missed for strike three in his previous AB. But note that just prior to this HR, Miggy had erased Hunter (aboard after a fine bunt for a hit) and himself on a 6-4-3. One run lost. In the 5th, Peralta had made it as far as 3B with one out before Santiago and Garcia turned in failed ABs. Another run lost. Top of the 7th, 1-0 Tigers, Brian Matusz in for the O’s. Prince doubles, Martinez singles, and Jhonny bloops in Fielder to make it 2-0 Detroit. Here’s where it starts to get ugly. A horrible sac bunt “attempt” by Avila resulted in a 2-5-3 DP. Ramon’s noble sac fly attempt came two innings late and was unable to score Peralta… from 2B… with 2 out. Shall we say the total of runs lost is up to 3 now? Meanwhile, Porcello was obviously out of gas to begin with when he came out for the 7th and immediately served up a towering RF home run for Chris Davis that made it 2-1. Phil C-uh-oh-ke came on with none out and runners at the corners. The good news is that he got out of a tough 1st and 2nd, one out jam. The bad news is that two runs charged to Porcello scored first. 3-2 Orioles, with what would prove to be the winning run scoring on a clutch knock up the middle by Nate McLouth. How many GIDP today for Detroit? 12? Hunter added one more in the 8th. Downs came on for the 8th and would have had a fine inning, the Davis clever beat-the-shift double notwithstanding, but for a slight technicality. His mistake – no Tigers bullpen appearance is complete without one – was the Casilla RBI double, which may have been misplayed to some extent by Dirks in LF. 4-2 Baltimore. Ortega came in replacing Downs and walked #9 hitter Chris Snyder on 4 pitches before escaping. Last chance, 3-4-5 due up. Cabrera singled, too little too late. The rest went quietly.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Nate McLouth, Chris Davis
HONORABLE MENTION: Kevin Gausman, Prince Fielder, Torii Hunter
NOT SO GOOD: Adam Jones, Jim Leyland

29-24, still in first place by .5, losing streak at 4.

Tigers sapping your strength these days? How’d you like to be an Indians fan right about now? Looks like both teams are trying to stay out of first place. “Go ahead.” “No, after you.” “Please, I insist.” “No, I really couldn’t.” “Age before beauty.” “Ha ha. Seriously, I’ll hold the door for you.”

Justin Verlander will take the mound this afternoon and will presumably do what he has traditionally been so good at. Shutdown performance to stop the skid, stop the bleeding. Someone might want to let the hitters know that innings beyond the 6th are not a post-game light workout, but actually count toward game results and overall statistics.

I’ll be back with a bit of a mundane statistical rundown and save the heavy stuff for tomorrow’s post. Feel free to beat me to the punch with any little statistical tidbits you may care to offer… And here’s that minor statistical time capsule for you:

HITTING:

AVG / OBP / SLG / RBI v AVG OPP%*

.372 Cabrera .446 / .670 / 177%
.326 Peralta .375 / .474 / 110%
.315 Tuiasosopo .448 / .463 / 121%
.312 Hunter .361 / .426 / 100%
.307 Pena .329 / .427 / 86%
.291 Infante .330 / .402 / 73%
.272 Jackson .333 / .371 / 75%
.271 Fielder .393 / .472 / 131%
.265 Garcia .286 / .500 / 164%
.247 Dirks .305 / .377 / 82%
.228 Martinez .273 / .305 / 85%
.176 Kelly .299 / .311 / 82%
.172 Avila .267 / .281 / 58%
.135 Santiago .220 / .243 / 27%

* A bit crude; ignore minor differences due to rounding

PITCHING:

BAA (LHB/RHB) / WHIP / ERA / K-PA% / IP

.156 Valverde (.214/.059) / 0.87 / 3.55 / 22% / 13
.187 Scherzer (.189/.184) / 0.89 / 3.42 / 31% / 76
.193 Benoit (.188/.200) / 1.00 / 1.88 / 32% / 24
.198 Downs* (.194/.200) / 0.99 / 2.82 / 28% / 22
.200 Smyly* (.106/.260) / 1.01 / 2.20 / 26% / 33
.211 Putkonen (.167/.231) / 1.50 / 1.69 / 25% / 5
.233 Ortega (.238/.227) / 1.32 / 3.97 / 20% / 11
.233 Sanchez (.266/.203) / 1.13 / 2.79 / 31% / 71
.241 Alburquerque (.296/.185) / 1.81 / 3.14 / 38% / 14
.261 Verlander (.259/.263) / 1.36 / 3.68 / 29% / 66
.267 Reed (.333/.222) / 1.00 / 2.25 / 7% / 4
.269 Coke* (.150/.344) / 1.30 / 6.46 / 23% / 15
.270 Fister (.222/.312) / 1.21 / 3.28 / 21% / 68
.275 Porcello (.276/.274) / 1.27 / 5.29 / 19% / 51
.417 Dotel (.273/.538)/ 3.00 / 13.50 / 14% / 4
.444 Villareal (.714/.273) / 3.69 / 20.77 / 21% / 4
.455 Rondon (.500/.400) / 3.00 / 11.57 / 7% / 2

* LHP, of course

Today’s “Maybe If We Distract Them With Oranges and Grape Jelly” lineups:

DETROIT

Infante 2B
Dirks RF
Cabrera 3B
Fielder 1B
Martinez DH
Peralta SS
Avila C
Tuiasosopo LF
Garcia CF

BALTIMORE

McLouth LF
Machado 3B
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Davis 1B
Wieters C
Hardy SS
Dickerson DH
Flaherty 2B

Stay tuned or come back for the post-game.

POST-GAME: Tigers 10, Orioles 3. Wow! A blowout has rarely been more welcome. The wheels started to come off for Jason Hammel by the 2nd – no real command – when Tuiasosopo scored Martinez from 3B with 2 out after an Avila GIDP with real buzzkill potential. Verlander was good for his 7 innings but not dominant, alternately very sharp and very hittable, especially when he was serving it on a tee to J.J. Hardy (solo shots to LF in the 3rd and the 5th; the first one tied it at 1-1, while the second was more of a consolation prize). The Tigers 4th was just too sweet. 11 men came to the plate and ran the score to 9-1 before it was over. It started with Hammel allowing a HR to V-Mart (RF)… then Peralta (LF)… then Avila (LCF on a nice easy swing). Before Tuiasosopo could make it four in a row, he was drilled by Hammel’s first pitch, and Hammel was tossed without delay (but not without argument). Clearly, Hammel didn’t mean to hit him, but he took that chance with the high and inside after allowing three long balls, and deserved what he got. I was sorry to see him go, because I wanted more HRs. The O’s hurried to ready reliever T.J. McFarland – and the show went on! After Infante had doubled in Tuiasosopo (miraculously scoring from 2B for once!) to make it 5-1, a Dirks walk loaded the bases for Cabrera. I’m thinking no way, don’t hope for too much, they’ll probably walk him in eventually. The count went to 3-2 (still none out, by the way – was this a dream?). But evidently the Showalter/McFarland plan was “don’t give in, try and get him somehow,” and Miggy hit his 200th Tigers HR to LF for the grand salami. 9-1 Tigers. The 4th-5th innings (not to mention 6th) were not easy ones for JV, and the Orioles got to within 9-3 before Fielder ended the scoring by absolutely muscling a pitch from McFarland out the park to CF, on an improbable and atypical (for Prince) sort of swing. Smyly had an easy 8th but a trickier 9th, putting 2 on with none out after losing a 12-pitch battle with Hardy for the walk. It all ended happily when Nate McLouth looked at the last strike in a 3-pitch AB.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander
HONORABLE MENTION: J.J. Hardy, Victor Martinez, Omar Infante, Matt Tuiasosopo, Drew Smyly, Troy Patton
NOT SO GOOD: Jason Hammel, T.J. McFarland

The Detroit Tigers (29-23, clinging by .5 to first in the AL Central, losing streak at 3) travel to Baltimore and Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (30-24, third place AL East) in a three-game series. Local temperatures will be in the 90s for the day game Saturday, while rain may affect the Sunday game. Looks like it’s going to be a bit hot and sticky all weekend out there.

Torii Hunter will be giving the first couple games (son’s graduation) and possibly the whole series (elbow contusion after being HBP Wednesday) a miss. No shortage of outfielders to fill in, but it does leave the bench a man short. That can be a problem.

The difference in play, if not result, between the Rangers and the Pirates series is a positive one. Still, it’s abundantly clear that the Detroit Tigers aren’t yet ready to play with the big boys. Maybe that corner could have been turned last night. It wasn’t. Now they face a peer, another good team that can’t quite get it all together. It’s the Series Of The AL Also-Rans. If you think that’s harsh, you must be more satisfied with the prospect of finishing 7th best in the AL (playoffs or no) than I am.

The Baltimore Orioles at a glance are a hitting team; pitching is their weakness. Let’s pause for emphasis on HITTING; the Tigers have faced some good offensive teams, but have not yet seen the likes of this lineup. Five regulars are batting .290 or above, and six have 29 RBI or more. With Chris Davis in there, O’s fans are among the few in the AL who can say “Miguel who?” Not only that, but Baltimore is also speedy (very) and among the best defensive teams in the AL. The key will be jumping on that Achilles’ heel of theirs: Pitching. It won’t be easy. None of their opponents have decisively gotten the best of them (think Tigers v. Angels) thus far. But scoring at Camden Yards hasn’t been a problem for the Tigers the past couple seasons.

Friday, May 31, 7:05 PM EDT: RHP Max Scherzer v. RHP Miguel Gonzalez

Gonzalez wasn’t so hot last July against the Tigers, but he’s had decent outings recently. Max has been quite superb of late, and strikeouts are really the least of it. Much more to Max than Ks these days. Last July, though, the Orioles had their way with Scherzer in Baltimore, and all those bad dudes are still there to face him again.

Saturday, June 1, 4:05 PM EDT: RHP Justin Verlander v. RHP Jason Hammel

Hammel has been good the last couple starts. Against the Tigers last July, he left the game after only 3 innings, having allowed 2 runs and struck out 5. Hammel is the kind of pitcher Jhonny Peralta scorches. Justin is on the rebound from a rough stretch. Last July at Camden Yards, he was dominant in a shutout win. It is no exaggeration to say that Verlander owns current Orioles hitters. Not a lineup that will faze him in the slightest. Cause for worry?

Sunday, June 2, 1:35 PM EDT: RHP Rick Porcello v. RHP Kevin Gausman

Gausman is a rookie making his 3rd start who’s been hammered the first two. “Bad boding” for Sunday, as Billfer used to say? Rick is coming off a career start (with no decision) against the Pirates. Last August (at Comerica), Porcello had himself a good game and then blew it in the 7th (Chris Davis 3-run shot). Current Orioles find Rick quite hittable, but we can hope that this doesn’t necessarily mean scoreable-upon.

The Orioles bullpen isn’t terribly imposing, but then neither is that of the Tigers. Matching up either team’s big gun 3-4-5 hitters against bullpens, who’s got the edge? Tigers do. Might want to go light on the Coke, however. Even against lefties Davis and Markakis. O’s have barely seen Smyly and Downs. Often an advantage to the pitcher there.

In what I hope will become a personal tradition, the series-remainder game posts are going to be stat-heavy and comment-light.

Stay tuned or come back for the post-game.

Gimme dat lineup, Coleman-Man….

POST-GAME: Orioles 7, Tigers 5. Tough one to swallow, eh? Things got off to a sunny start in the 1st with Cabrera’s 2-run homer to right off Miguel Gonzalez. Max dodged the fearsome-first-inning O’s with a quiet 1st, but his 2nd was labored and slow. He escaped with only the sac fly allowed, but his troubles continued in the 3rd when Adam Jones connected on a 2-run HR to CF. 3-2 Baltimore. The Tigers followed the good script by coming back to tie it in the 4th on a kind of manufactured run. It started with a Martinez soft single, but through the good fortune of V-Mart getting erased on a fielder’s choice, Peralta came to be standing on 2B when clutch Garcia knocked one through the middle. Scherzer – once again (talk about a script) – righted himself after the rockiness and only grew stronger, retiring his last 16 batters in order and going double-digit with the strikeouts. 8 of those outs were flyballs, some deep, but an out is an out. The Tigers took the lead back in the 5th, loading the bases and threatening to break it open. Give Martinez credit for finding another gear and beating the DP relay to first, thus driving in the 4-3 run, but… but… Garcia gave the Tigers an insurance run and a 5-3 lead in the 6th inning, last one for starter Gonzalez, with a solo HR just over the RF scoreboard. That’s how you put the forth back in the back and forth game, right? Max and Avisail. Victory appeared within reach. Valverde came in for the save in the 9th. I wasn’t nervous. Nick Markakis homered to RF to lead it off. Garcia in RF almost took it away from him, got glove on it and everything. Mistimed leap? Give him an A+ for effort – it was that close. Oh well. 5-4 Tigers, none out and none on. I still wasn’t too nervous. But Valverde got himself in a heap of trouble, before almost getting himself miraculously out of it. Two popouts with men on 1st and 3rd – talk about dodging bullets. The sudden good fortune couldn’t stop now, could it? It could. Falling behind 2-0 on Chris Dickerson, Valverde’s 4th pitch wound up in the right-center field seats for the walkoff.

Kelly gave a rather stark illustration of his good and bad. Weak contact, weak outs, two with a runner in scoring position. But fine, difference-making defense in CF. J.J Hardy and Manny Machado made strong and smart plays on the left side, but Peralta was no slouch ranging far right to keep Jones’s 9th inning hit to the SS-3B hole an IF single rather than the double it might have been. Next play, the fleet Garcia in RF cut off the Davis smash to the gap to hold him to a single and keep Jones from scoring the tying run. Avila Watch: Still pathetic. V-Mart Watch: If you doubt that this guy is a liability who ought to be spending some of his time on the bench, see Innings 5 and 7. It’s been going on all season. Big Swinging Jhonny didn’t help the cause by going down in flames in the 5th, and he was right behind Victor again in the 7th inning rally kill. We can curse Valverde, but those 5th and 7th innings were also What Might Have Been so that we didn’t have to. We might not have had to see him at all. Give the Orioles pen some credit for keeping the walkoff in order. A mix and match of four arms over 3 innings kept Detroit off the board.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Chris Dickerson, Max Scherzer, Adam Jones
HONORABLE MENTION:  Avisail Garcia, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Markakis, Andy Dirks
NOT SO GOOD: Jose Valverde

29-22, 1st place, 1.5 games up on Cle.

Last night’s game was playing out rather nicely until Sanchez took a sharp detour in the 7th that resulted in a 4 run frame for the Pirates, and a 5-3 loss for the Tigers. The Tigers now find themselves in peril of the dreaded 1-3 series, or a mini-sweep, depending on how you look at it.

Fister looks to right the ship tonight for the Tigers, and himself. Since beginning the season 4-0, he’s 1-2 in this last 5 starts (the Tigers are 2-3) with a 5.20 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. He’s only walking 1.46 /9, so that’s a lot of base hits (and hit batters).

*************

A few notes:

– Despite the two game skid, the Tigers are second best among all MLB teams in interleague play since 2006, with an 85-49 record.

– Hunter is out of the lineup, which will give him 3 days off for his swollen left elbow. Remember that he’s headed to my neck of the woods for his son’s HS graduation this weekend.

– Some fun with Miggy: Cabrera is tied for the major league lead in hits with 77, and leads the majors in RBI with 59 and average at .368. His 59 RBI are the most by a Tiger since 1916 (that’s as far back as we can remember; he’s tied with Hank Greenberg). Miggy has 11 HR and 31 RBI…in May. Big Cec had 11 HR in May of 1995.  The 31 RBI in a May are the most since D _ _ _ _ _       _ _ S _ _ _ had 34 in May of 1998.

–  Three game set at Baltimore starting tomorrow.

Tonight’s Where’s Austin? Lineup:

1. Infante, 2B
2. Dirks, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Peralta, SS
6. Tuiasosopo, LF
7. Pena, C
8. Garcia, CF
9. Fister, P