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And at least 2 out of 5 are liars
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A-rod contract contest. Win a book by JC Bradbury
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I know it’s early in his professional career, but the number of injuries the kid is piling up is disconcerting.
45 thoughts on “links for 2007-10-24”
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I still blame myself for the Tigers losing the World Series. They were doing so well. Then a friend sent me a Hanshin Tigers hat between the ALCS and World Series. I wore it once or twice. But they are apparently cursed like the Cubbies. And look what’s happened ever since.
Well the player I most heard Maybin referred to when we drafted him was Eric Davis. Let’s hope that comparison does not extend to injury issues.
The injuries are concerning. Especially when it’s the same left shoulder he separated earlier this year. I have to believe that it healed or else why would the Tigers send him to play in fall leagues?
Everything I’ve read has said it’s not the same shoulder he hurt earlier in the season.
This blog on Baseball America, in the “quick hits” in the bottom says it’s his left shoulder the same one that kept him out of the Future’s game.
Actual quote:
Maybin’s injuries are both un-surprising and concerning, especially because he represents the “un-mortgaged” future that the Tigers have promised their fans in lieu of Soriano, Teixiera, and whatever other players they could have traded him for at a time when the latter could have added value to teams on the verge of winning championships in exactly the places where they needed help to push them over the top.
It is a shame that the vast majority of Tigers fans and beat writers will watch Maybin, an athletic, “toolsy,” un-proven quantity, and wonder why he keeps getting hurt, instead of asking “why didn’t the Tigers trade him for something that they knew would have helped them, when they had the chance?
Any number or combination of circumstances (injuries, bad luck, youthful indiscretion, like his M.I.P. while driving in West Michigan during his first season–you name it) could operate to prevent Maybin from reaching his full potential or, for that matter, reaching the major leagues at all. With all of these contingencies in mind, why does everyone speak of him, or any other human being this age, as a sure thing in whatever they do with their life?
Playing along, I don’t know off-hand whether it is the same shoulder he injured last season or not, but if it is not the same shoulder, isn’t that even worse news?
Mike – all other reports I saw had Maybin’s earlier injury being his right shoulder, which could explain what we saw (or didn’t see) in Maybin’s arm.
Kevin – So you’d rather had a “proven quantity” who could just as easily get hurt as Maybin and would have cost the Tigers $100M to keep before they reached free agency? Not to mention the fact that no player guarantees playoff success.
Matt-
Yes.
I can’t believe anyone is daring to question the potential of Willie Mays Winston Churchill Maybin.
Kevin – I’m glad DD disagrees with you.
Given the Tigers aging cast and possible closing playoff window,I have to question the judgement of anyone who wouldn’t have dealt Maybin for the 27 year old switch-hitting Teixeira.He’s had 4 consecutive seasons of at least 30HR and 100RBI and is a solid glove at first base,a position where we’ve had a recent power outage.Can’t say if it would have put them over the top this year,but he would have brought alot more (.306/.400/.563 with 30HR and 105RBI in 132 games) to the lineup than Maybin or Casey.
Just a minor correction,Stephen.In the hyperbolic lexicon of The Detroit Tiger Weblog,Curtis Granderson is Willie Mays.I don’t know if it’s allowed(since he’s an active player)but Cameron Maybin could be Vladimir Guerrero.
I’d question the judgement of someone giving up one of the top prospects in all of baseball for 2 months of a player. If the Tigers could have traded for Teixeira and controlled his rights for a couple years, then by all means pull the trigger.
Also, as the writer of Detroit Tigers Weblog I want the record to show that I never called Curtis Granderson Willie Mays. I referenced Mays in a comparison of Granderson’s quad 20 achievement but never said Granderson was on par with one of the greatest to ever play the game.
Matt–
I am not trying to posture or quarrel with you over this.
Also, I am not rooting against Cameron Maybin. As a Tigers fan, I would absolutely love to watch a player as good as the scouts and the Tigers say he is going to be playing center field for the Tigers for years to come.
My point is that we don’t know if Maybin is going to pan out or not. What we did know the past two seasons, right around the third week of July 2006 and July 2007, was that the Tigers were on the cusp of the playoffs and perhaps a championship.
You are correct that there is no guarantee of playoff success. The best any general manager can do is put his team in the best position as possible to get into the playoffs and hope that the circumstances work out in their team’s favor.
But this proves my point–if there is no guarantee of short term playoff success by adding a Teixeira or Soriano to your lineup, then how can you conceivably say there is a longer term guarantee of Maybin making this team better when (or if) he puts on a Tigers uniform again?
It’s all about risk, right? So in terms of risk, are there better odds of Maybin ending up like Willie Mays, or Mark Teixeira ending up like Mark Teixeira?
The point is that we know much more about the Tigers of today than we know about the Tigers of 2009 or 2010. When the Tigers had the evidence of their own strengths and weaknesses right before their own eyes, prior to the trading deadlines of 2006 and 2007, they chose to rely on the promise of Maybin instead of the available information which demonstrated why they needed help in very specific places in order to give them a better CHANCE of making it to the playoffs and, possibly, winning a championship.
I assume Dave Dombrowski disagrees with me, but I’m not losing any sleep over it.
Kevin – I’m not trying to quarrel over this either. It just seems like you were putting more emphasis on the risk of waiting for Maybin to develop than the risk of bringing Soriano or Teixeira on board for what very likely would be either a few months (for Soriano) or a little more than a season (for Teixeira).
I realize reasonable minds can disagree on this matter. I just prefer to err on the side of having a cheap, immensely talented young player who may add to the Tigers’ chances of reaching the playoffs for five or six years as opposed to giving that player up for a proven player (who can still underperform or get hurt) who will either only add to the Tigers’ chances for one or two season or cost an exorbitant amount of money.
No matter how good,a prospect is exactly that-a prospect.There’s absolutely no guarantee he’ll live up to his promise,but even if he does,sometimes you need to give quality to get quality.Think the Red Sox fans are complaining today about trading super-prospect Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett (with Mike Lowell as pretty decent throw-in)?We had a better chance of winning this season with the proven Teixeira than with either Maybin and his promise or Casey and his likability.
I’ll concede the trade would have been a risk given Teixeira’s contract situation.However,considering their recent performance pertaining to free agents,I have increasing confidence in the ability of this organization to solve these problems.
For the record,I never said ‘Bilfer said’.While I’m appreciative of the time,talent,and effort you devote to your fine blog,comment sections are communal efforts and it was to that I was referring with my reference to the sometimes exaggerated assessments of certain players skills demonstrated by your readers.
Ahh, I gotcha. That link i posted was the first one I had come across and I hadn’t really checked out other links yet. Either way, a shoulder injury (two in less then 6 months) is concerning. But if it were the same shoulder as before it’d be even more concerning.
Fair enough, but the community here doesn’t think Curtis Granderson is as good as Willie Mays either and it is an unfair characterization of the site and the commenting community.
Extrapolating out the comments of one or two people and saying it represents the views of the site isn’t fair to what I do here. It’s no different than someone saying “I’ve never seen a site complain as much about a top 5 MVP finalist’s season as the Detroit Tiger Weblog.”
I’m sorry I’m hypersensitive about this, but I have a real problem when you characterize the site with an outlandish statement especially when I make a considerable effort to make well reasoned and well researched statements.
So this is what results from missing the playoffs?…
=-p
Whats the most probable rotation right now for next year?
Verlander
Rogers
Bonderman
Robertson
Jair?
Oh and IMO keeping or trading Maybin… I duno…
I say trade him for Hanley Ramirez!!! if only
Personally I’d rather have Teix but I realize our team is only getting older (position-player wise)
We have Maggs/Guillen/Polanco/Inge for awhile
Granderson’s price will be going up soon too as will Verlanders, Zumayas and Robertsons (if he can put it together which I think he will)
We need some cheap talented guys that are under club control for awhile to offset aging guys in their prime and those on the decline (hopefully not)
Even though I have no idea how good Maybin will be many many scouts predicted he would be awesome, and Dombrowski said he was untouchable
We know he can run, and I think that he will figure out MLB hitting
Just tell me where Granderson was 6 years ago when he was 20…
or Maggs when he was 20 etc.
it normally takes untill someone is at least 23 or 24 if they are really really good
look at upton or reyes
I say give him next year and part of ’09 then we can start making our judgements, he is basically a few years removed from HIGH SCHOOL!!!
although he is 18 months older than me =p
Granderson to Mays?
I never saw Mays when he played but I’ve seen video and have looked at his statistics
I think he was and is overrated.
If you neutralize their stats and take an average Vladdy is pretty close from the naked eye.
and I have seen vlad, although I’d love to have him there are quite a few better
Granderson I think is a perfect example of what people should strive to be between and outside of the white lines…
I don’t care who yo u are if you’ve seen him play or speak or have met him or w/e he is a guy you root for
He had a darn good season last year, and whether you like it or not along with Inge he is our only other position player who came up through the ranks of our system.
anyways nite!!! sry I haven’t been on as much l8ly but I’ve been busy with midterms and what-not
oh btw sry for the terrible spelling/grammer i’m beat/lazy =p pretty much applies to everything i post =p
oh and billfer I think you should change your name from the DTW to the Detroit Tigers Online Headquaters and start sellin’ t-shirts =-p
how many hits do you get and comments compared to other bloggers?!!!
Tigs haven’t played for almost a month and still quite a few diehards are posting regularly
I was wondering how this site would rank compared to the other top tiger sites as far as hits and the other top team weblogs
I figure you’re right up there…right?
Just curious…
Sorry,bilfer,I wasn’t aware of your hypersensitivity on the subject.I thought my remark was obviously tongue-in-cheek and clearly referential to the misguided few who have drawn parallels between Granderson and Kaline or Mays.By the way,Granderson had a wonderful season-against RHP.
David,please elaborate on how you arrived at the conclusion that Willie Mays is overrated,as it’s the first time I’ve seen that particular adjective attatched to his name and your assessment seems to contradict several generations of ‘experts’ as well as fans,many of whom actually saw him with their “naked eye”.
Similarly,I’d be interested in learning exactly how many are the “quite a few better” than Vlad Guerrero.While injuries have affected his running ability and diminished his defensive skills and he is no longer the best all-around player in the game,one of the surest bets in baseball going into any season is that he’ll finish with .300/.400/.550 along with 30HRs and 100RBIs,his typical year for the past 10.Those aren’t numbers you get from “quite a few” guys and your inability to recognize the unique greatness of Mays and to a lesser extent Guerrero suggests you may need corrective lenses for your “naked eye”.
Good luck on your midterms.
Bob, I know it was a tongue in cheek comment with no malice intended and I know the comments in particular that you are referencing. But not everyone else does, especially those that are new to the site. Those comments were made several months ago and without referencing the post there is no context.
I’m not upset, I just want there to be clarity that there is no detroit tigers weblog lexicon equating curtis granderson to willie mays.
And Granderson had a wonderful season.
Just a quick question or two billfer……Since we will obviously keep Granderson and should have Maybin up in the bigs by ’09 would it make any sense to sign someone like Adruw Jones or another centerfielder so we could move Granderson to Leftfield so he can get used to it by the time Maybin gets here? Cause after last year I have a hard time seeing Maybin in Left. My other question is wouldnt it serve us better to sign Teixeira as a free agent and let Guillen stay at short rather than trade away prospects to get Rentarie or Wilson? I know Guillen isnt great at short but he is ok and with the offense you add with Teixeira it will by far help more than either of those shortstops would. Plus you would keep Guillen happy because while he is willing to play first he doesnt want to and if we sign someone to play SS who he doesnt think is better than him it will cause problems no doubt about it
A free agent CF like Jones will require a multi-year deal–far beyond the time frame for Maybin to be a real big leaguer. And it won’t take long for Granderson to adjust to LF.
IMO, the move of Guillen to 1B has as much to do with making sure his knees hold up as it has to do with his defense.
And I won’t work through all the math, but I think it’s safe to say that:
(Maybin for six years at below market rates) X (Risk factor that Maybin doesn’t pan out) > (Teixera for a year and a half at near market rate)
P.S. The equation applies to acquiring Teixera this last season–not after next season.
Your equation gives the veneer of mathematical insight to a purely arbitrary assessment of the situation.
If I may offer a few ‘can’t miss’ phenoms I’ve watched miss through the years:
Drew Henson,Sean Burroughs,Darryl Ward,Clint Hurdle(his Rockies bats MIA so far as well),Cory Snyder,TORY LOVULLO,Alex Escobar,Rick Ankiel(the pitcher Rick Ankiel).
Mark Teixeira is only 27 years old and an established star.His baseball prime is in front of him.He’s one of a handfull of players who has Triple Crown potential(admittedly,more of a longshot than Maybin becoming a star).$16M/yr X 5 or 6 years would probably sign him and keep him here through some very productive years.If it takes more,so be it-give him Delgado money.He’s among baseball’s elite.
Joshua –
Granderson can play left now if he had to, but I don’t think that Maybin will supplant him, at least not initially. The only way that the Tigers sign Jones is if he pursues a one year deal to try and re-establish himself. Kind of like Pudge Rodriguez going to Florida for one year when he was coming off the back problems.
With Maybin waiting in the wings, and Ordonez and Granderson entrenched in 2 of the 3 out field positions, the Tigers wont’ look to add any outfield help that requires more than a 2 year deal.
As for Teixeira, he’s awesome and I’d love to have him. But even if you think you can squeeze 2 more years out of Guillen at short – and that is a stretch – then you still have 2 first basemen on your team in 2010 and 2011. Which is right about the time that Ordonez takes over DH duties.
The equation was an attempt to put the relevant factors DD weighed this summer in a more explicit format. And it’s a less arbitrary assessment than the one that got this train rolling:
“I have to question the judgement of anyone who wouldn’t have dealt Maybin for the 27 year old switch-hitting Teixeira.”
Those are valid considerations about Guillen and Ordonez.
Not less arbitrary,equally arbitrary.Or to put it another way,(subjectiveness of BobS’ assessment) = (subjectiveness of KyleJ’ assessment) .You didn’t represent your equation as the subjectiveness of Dombrowski’s assessment-in fact,you suggested deeper mathematical secrets lay behind your conclusion.
To review,(liklihood of aging Tigers team making playoffs and/or WS in 2007,2008(and possibly beyond) with GG fielding switch hitting first baseman who hits for power and average) > (liklihood of same Tiger team winning in 2007 or 2008 with the promising but unproven Maybin).I won’t bother working through the math to give you the probabilities except to say the Tiger’s playoff chances with Maybin on the roster in 2007 was exactly 0.
“I won’t bother working through the math to give you the probabilities except to say the Tiger’s playoff chances with Maybin on the roster in 2007 was exactly 0.”
That clearly was not the case at the trade deadline. You can’t assign probabilities retroactively. They had a good shot at the playoffs with the team they had. It didn’t work out. You can argue they should have made a move–I say the cost was too high–but you can’t pretend that a single move would have been the difference.
And I still can’t figure out who all these teams people assume are out there with a brighter future than the Tigers. Granderson, Verlander, Zumaya and Bonderman–plus the prospects in the system (Maybin, Miller, Porcello, Jurrjens, etc.)–is a pretty good core.
Sure, we have aging hitters. But nearly every playoff team has some aging hitters in the middle of their lineup. And those hitters’ contracts don’t last more than 2-4 years–at which time you have money to sign some new hitters.
Bottom line: If you consistently trade away your top prospects, you forfeit the chance to have good players play for you for six years at reasonable salaries. Unless you’re the Yankees or the Red Sox, that’s the path to long-term success. I don’t write-off the possibility of long-term success so easily.
Look at Granderson 10 years from now before making comparisons.All I know is that he will be the face of this organization for a long time to come. He’s a helluva player and even a better human being.Hopefully he’s a Tiger for life.
tried to post yesterday but, here is the short version
Mays was great but most lists I see him rated 2 or 3rd best mlb player (including pitchers) of all time
some guys IMO that were no contest better
(JUST OUTFIELDERS)
TY COBB
BABE RUTH
TED WILLIAMS
HANK AARON
STAN MUSIAL
TRIS SPEAKER
no doubt he was good, very good, hof good one of the best ever but I think that he could maybe be put as 20th best player (including pitchers) not 2nd or 3rd overall
oh and thanks i think i did well (or at least i hope so ;))
oh on my last list i forgot JOE JACKSON =p, im sure there are others too
That’s pretty exclusive company the overrated Willie Mays is keeping.
Keep in mind that when Mays is rated so highly on those lists you allude to,it’s his all around ability that is being acknowledged.He’s the prototype for the modern 5 tool player,much the same as Gordie Howe is the prototype for the modern power forward.He was a unique blend of power and speed (remember,it’s Mays who is the only other modern day player to have accomplished what Granderson did in 2007)whose career stats would have been even more impressive had he not lost a couple seasons to Korea nor spent too many years with possibly the worst hitter’s park in the history of baseball as his home field.
On the other hand,Williams(who my dad insists is unquestionably the best HITTER he ever saw),Aaron,and Musial were fortunate to spend all or most of their careers in some of the best hitter’s parks in baseball.Williams,of course,also lost big chunks of his career to WW2 and Korea.If not,it would be his records that Aaron and Bonds chased.Williams was not particularly renowned as a fielder,nor was Musial,both of whom I’d concede were probably better pure hitters than Mays.It’s interesting to speculate,too,just what kind of numbers Williams would have put up if he’d played in Detroit or New York,with their lefthand hitter friendly parks.
If anyone on that list is overrated,Aaron would be my candidate.Mays was far and away his superior in every facet of the game.Aaron was a very good fielder,but not the best in the baseball or even the NL,as Kaline and Clemente wore the title as Aaron’s contemporaries.On the other hand,Mays is in any conversation debating the best defensive centerfielder of all time.
Dice-K earned his money tonight.
yep yep and ye p
a family friend (played at u of m when they were good and then was drafted by the white sox) of ours struck out Ted 2x in the war and he said Ted used to always call him “Joe f***ing rookie”
You could also argue a ton of stuff for other guys to “ie the great Tiger Hank Greenberg should be wayyy up there except he left for WW2 and lost when he was (prime) 30-34 to the war” even with that his averages/year are soooo similar to sweet lou that it isn’t even funny
but even if Mays was sooo good he barley hit over .300 career, which although is good in compairson to many OF HOF is not good
But if Granderson keeps putting up #s like he did last year or similar to Mays I’ll be more than happy.
The guy that was supposed to be the next Mays from all the hype was Maybin….
hopefully his confidence isn’t too knocked
I wonder who will get 500PA in a single season first, Maybin or Gorkeys?
Yea I’ve heard Mays like Grandy was all around good,
Dike K is profoundly overrated. He got by on junk against the indians and hasn’t proven he can pitch 6 innings against a tough team. He’s not awful, but he’s a tepid #3 starter at best and at the acquisition rate one of basebal’s terrible deals.
And my god, that bail out slide by the rockies right fielder?! that was the game there. he’s gonna be living that down the rest of his career. that was a gutless play. well, it’s a gutless play in a bonafide baseball town. In Denver, who knows?
You’ll get no argument from me about Dice-K being overrated,but he exceeded my expectations last night by giving the Red Sox five strong innings.As professional hitters become more accustomed to his arrythmic delivery,I expect his descent to mediocrity to be rapid.
Good point about Greenberg,David.He would have quite likely been a career 500 HR guy without the war.
You’re right about Granderson,also.He’s ‘all around good’,at least as long as he’s hitting against RHP.If not,the Mendoza Line is like batting .400.
Your tumescence from Granderson’s ONE good year is curious given your dismissal of May’s doing what only a relative handful of modern players have done,i.e.,career .300,despite his hanging around too long,despite losing good young years to a war,and despite playing in a nightmare of a park(anyone who ever ‘enjoyed’ a game at Candlestick Park can tell you about the wind that blew IN from the outfield.I lived in the Bay Area in the seventies,after the stadium was remodeled,and the park was still like experiencing a tornado up close.And cold.I never did get to the launching pad that was Fulton County Stadium).An even smaller handful of players have accomplished the feat while hitting 600 HR.Yeah,I’ll be happy too if Granderson has a career like Mays.I’ll also be happy if I win the Lotto or see a unicorn.
I can hardly wait for Maybin’s first .300 year.It will be straight to the HoF for him around here in the Tiger-centric universe.
Hah yep, the only stadium I’ve been to in California is Doger Stadium (at least one) but that was ten years ago…
Its funny how we had so many terrible first round picks – Sleeth, Moore, Baugh, Woods, Wheatland, Munson, Weaver, Anderson, Greisinger , Drumright (excluding Verlander – who I think has a good shot at the HOF as long as he stays healthy even though I live in the “Tiger-Centric universe”)
Yet guys like Granderson, Inge, Zumaya, Raburn, Rabelo who weren’t from the first round produced at least somewhat
OH and on DICE-K
Normally when you starting pitcher hits better than he pitches in the freaking World Series that usually spells a loss
I KNOW!!! HE WAS MENT TO BE A HITTER – THE NEXT BABE RUTH!!!
As far as him getting worse or w/e
I duno, there could be one strong counter-point.
It has been said time and time again about playing for the Yanks/BoSox that new players sometimes have a freshman-jinx
Heck look at Beckett 5+ERA lastyear… he has looked pretty good thisyear
I disagree on Dice-K. He came from Japan, which I’ve heard is the equivalent to Triple-A here or just near thereabouts. This year, has he been worth the money? Yes and no. The Posting Fee was a ton but a drop in the hat for the Bo Sox when compared to their revenue. He only made $6 million and you got No. 3/4 starter numbers out of him which is about what you’d expect from a pitcher making that amount in today’s market. But, you also got 200 K’s in 204 innings and in the AL East/the AL in general coming from Japan that’s extremely good (especially for $6 mil).
I really think next year he’ll be dramatically improved and be a great investment at only $8 million for the year. His walk totals were high and I think those will only drop and a 200 K and near a 3:1 K:BB ratio. Much in the way that Verlander’s went from 2-to-1 to 3-to-1 in 07. This is Matsuzaka’s “rookie” year essentially and I think he’ll be leaps and bounds better next year.
Maybe, but I’m starting to think the Jays have a good shot
Red Sox in ’07 hunted
Pedroia… soph jinx?
Schil+Manny+Tek another year older
Beckett doesn’t repeat
Okajima starts to suck it
Yanks
Arod opts out
Posada+Rivera+Pettite leave?
Jays
Halladay is healthy all year round and Burnett is also
BJ Ryan comes back
Vernon doesn’t blow as much
Rios really does as well as I think he will
Heck even the Rays will be better, I feel bad for the Os, I love Camden (went to a Yanks-Os game) but who do they have after Bedard and Lowen? Cabrera?
Tampa Bay has a lot of talent on their team.In fact,they’re one of the teams that came immediately to mind when KyleJ asked upthread whose future was brighter than the Tigers and then framed his answer in terms of young talent.It’s obviously more than just young talent that makes a winner (smart management and a willingness to spend help),but there are a number of teams(including the Indians,Red Sox,Phillies,Diamondbacks,and Rockies) who have plenty of good,young players comprising a nucleus for future success.
(smart management and a willingness to spend help)
Can we call the following smart management?
1) Getting Guillen basically for free.
2) Getting Polanco basically for free.
3) Holding on to Verlander when some were calling to trade him for Beckett.
4) Signing Bonderman to an extension while the price was still reasonable.
5) Big Picture: Turn a 119-loss team into a pennant winner in three years.
And I think the following players fit the “willingness to spend” bill: Pudge, Magglio, Guillen (extension), Rogers, Sheffield–not to mention the willingness to spend on draft picks (Maybin, Miller, Porcello).
Add that to our young pitching nucleus, and I maintain that the Tigers’ future is bright. There are certainly teams out there with better nuclei of young positional players–but you can but hitting; you can’t but pitching.
We can debate the age-old trading-prospects-to-make-the-playoffs question, but I really don’t see what reason there is to so severely discount the possibility of future success that trading away one of the top positional prospects in baseball for one and a half years of a slugger at 1B is a no brainer (“I have to question the judgement of . . .”).
Still can’t get the xhtml right?
Practice makes perfect
I agree,the Guillen and Polanco deals were brilliant,but it’s not always possible to fleece other GMs.
Signing Bonderman was a no brainer.
A prospective Verlander deal flew under my radar.I think he’s among the best young pitchers I’ve ever seen.If it’s possible,I think his excellence is overlooked around these parts by the Granderson lovefesters.That being said,if you’re saying Florida offered Cy Young candidate and proven big-game pitcher Beckett AND Lowell for Verlander and throwins,similar to the Ramirez deal,hell yes,make that trade.If you haven’t been near a TV this past week,Beckett and Lowell and the Red Sox are the new world champions.
I have to question the judgement of anyone who thinks the Tigers wouldn’t have made a more serious grab at the ring with Beckett and Lowell(and Teixeira)instead of Verlander and Inge and Maybin and Casey.