The Detroit Tiger Weblog

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  • 5 million down the drain and other adversity

    One of the more impressive aspects of the Tigers leading the AL Central and being a half game off an MLB leading pace is that they have had to battle injuries. However, the Tigers may have actually been lucky in this regard, sort of.

    Taking a look at the Tigers team stats one will see that the team has used 36 different players already this year. But if you look at the split of position players and pitchers, the split is quite remarkable. The Tigers have used only 14 different position players this year, and one of those is Ryan Raburn who was just called up to take Neifi Perez’s spot after the suspension. So the Tigers have stuck with the same 13 non-pitchers all season.

    Now it’s not quite as clean as that though. Vance Wilson was slated to be the back-up catcher, but hasn’t spent a day on the active roster. Plus the Tigers have sustained nagging injuries to both Carlos Guillen and Brandon Inge (and it looks like Placido Polanco now as well). Neither required a DL stint but kept them both out of the lineup for a week.

    So with only 1 position player sub, that means there have been 10 supplements to the 12 man pitching staff. Of the 12 pitchers on the opening day roster, 7 of them have spent time on the DL. And of the 7 that stayed healthy, 2 of them were traded (Maroth and Ledezma). And a 3rd one, Bobby Seay, was an injury replacement to begin with. So Justin Verlander, Chad Durbin, Todd Jones, Bobby Seay and Jason Grilli are the only members of the opening day pitching staff who have been on the active roster the whole season.

    As a point of reference, the Tigers used 19 pitchers all of last year.

    Meanwhile, Fernando Rodney has had 2 stints and even injury replacements Zach Miner and Tim Byrdak have found themselves DL’d.

    All told the Tigers have amassed 364 days on the disabled list – so far. This doesn’t include another 4 to 6 weeks for Joel Zumaya or the rest of the season for Vance Wilson. It also doesn’t include the season long injuries to Tony Giarratano or Edward Campusano. While they are both DL’d, that is more a matter of roster management than having to find replacements. The wages paid out to those on the DL is approximately $5.5 million so far. The bulk of that is the $3.6 million portion of Kenny Rogers salary that kind of went to waste.

    But injuries to the pitchers are only part of the problem. The other part has been overwhelming ineffectiveness over the first 3 months of the season. Jose Mesa was jettisoned after being really bad consistently. Now the Tigers are paying him to pitch for the Phillies, which is still better than paying him to pitch for the Tigers.

    Aquilino Lopez, Eulogio De La Cruz, and Yorman Bazardo have all been given a shot. Acquisitions Jose Capellan and Macay McBride are trying to establish roots in what has been a very transient population thus far.

    So the Tigers have had to get creative. They’ve looked to trades as well as the minors to try and help the bullpen. But the lucky part is that pitching is the area that the Tigers had the depth to be able to sustain some issues. The fact that the position players have remained intact is the bigger part of the team’s success so far. And that the one that needed to be replaced was truly the 25th man on the roster seems particularly fortuitous.

  • Tigers Minor League Wrap 7/10/07

    GCL Blue Jays 2 GCL Tigers 9
    Only one of the Tigers affiliates was in action tonight. Charles Furbush allowed 1 hit, and 2 walks while fanning 10 in 5 shut out innings. Hayden Parrot went 4 for 5 and Luis Arlet was 3 for 4.

  • 2007 All Star Game

    With 5 Tigers in the game, as well as the coaching staff, I figured it deserved a game thread.

    I don’t have a lot of hopes or wishes or expectations for this game. Mostly just that the AL wins, cuz, you know, just in case. Plus, no injuries for our Tigers (and that Polly doesn’t make his worse). And finally, that Carlos Guillen gets some significant PT after missing out in 2004.

    You’ll probably have to wait a couple innings to see all the Tigers starters bat, because they occupy the 6-7-8 spots.

    2007 All-Star Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

  • All Star news and notes

    Poor Placido Polanco. Two days before his first All Star appearance he injures his back. Now he thinks he’ll play but Jim Leyland isn’t so sure. And as much as I want for Polanco to have his moment, I don’t want it to ultimately hurt the Tigers.

    I guess that’s one reason I find it a little strange that Leyland is batting his guys at the bottom of the order. I know he really doesn’t want to be perceived as playing favorites, but I don’t think anyone would really mind. Especially if it meant that Placido could still make the start and come out a little sooner after his first at-bat rather than potentially having to wait until the 3rd inning.

    I did watch the Home Run Derby last night. My son was into it and that’s cool. Magglio Ordonez went out quickly, and it looked like his stance was considerably different than what he’s used this season. Hopefully that’s a good thing that he went quite different, easier to revert back to the old form. It looked to be less spread out and less closed. Of course it was hard to see on the split screen because it was important for ESPN to show us Barry Bonds head (make jokes about its size and such at this point) at that very moment.

    I realized it’s less the HR Derby that annoys me than ESPN’s coverage of it. And it’s so drawn out. And Berman/Morgan seemed to barely pay attention to what was happening. Throwing it back to the studio was idiotic, but necessary since Baseball Tonight was banned from being there. And really, this is the time that John Kruk decides to advocate plate discipline and taking pitches?

  • Tigers Minor League Wrap 7/9//07

    Erie 7 Akron 4
    Jackson Melian, Andres Torres, and Erick Almonte each had 2 hit games. Matt Joyce hit his 13th homer and drew a walk. Jon Connolly allowed 2 runs on 9 hits, 2 walk, and 2 K’s in 6 2/3 innings.

    Lakeland 1 Sarasota 2
    Mark Haske had a solo homer and that was it for the offense. Mike Hernandez had a real rough night with 4 K’s. Elezar Aponte pitched well allowing just a run on 6 hits, a walk, and 7 strikeouts in 6 innings.

    Great Lakes 8 West Michigan 6
    Audy Ciriaco had 3 doubles and a walk. Scott Sizemore added 2 doubles among his 3 hits. Matt O’Brien was knocked around for 6 runs on 11 hits in 5 2/3 innings.

    Oneonta 6 Hudson Valley 2
    Cory Middleton homered and singled. Chris Carlson added his 3rd homer. Justin Henry was 1 for 2 with 2 walks and now has 10 walks and 2 K’s in 46 at-bats. Guillermo Moscoso allowed 3 hits, 2 walks and 7 K’s in 6 shutout innings.

    GCL Braves 5 GCL Tigers 7
    Aaron Furhman allowed 4 runs, all in the 2nd inning. For the day he gave up 8 hits, no walks, and he fanned 6 in 5 innings. Craig Maddox hit his first homer. Hayden Parrot went 3 for 5 . Londell Taylor ans Shawn Roof had 2 hit games.

  • Tigers Run Distributions

    One of my favorite exercises is to examine run distributions. With the All Star Break it gives me a chance to look at where the Tigers rank in terms of runs scored and runs allowed by game.

    First up we’ll take a look at the offense and runs scored per game.
    07rs.JPG
    To explain the graph, the column height represents the total number of games in which the team scored x amount of runs. The orange represents the number of games the team won and the blue is the number lost. The yellow line shows the cumulative percentage of games played at that run level.

    This pretty much reiterates what we already know. The team is rarely shut down completely, and frequently puts a pounding on teams by scoring more than 5 runs in 59% of their games. MLB as a whole has only topped 5 runs in 46% of games.

    But what you’ll also notice is that the Tigers need all those runs. Even when scratching out 3 runs, the team only won 4 o f 14 games.

    For some context here is the same chart for all of MLB in 2007:
    mlb07.JPG

    The flip side of course is runs allowed. Here is the Tigers distribution:
    07ra.JPG

    Now the other thing we can do with this is look at the distribution, compare it to the winning percentage at various run levels for MLB, and come up with expected win totals.

    Working with the run scored distribution and multiplying by the expected winning percentage we see that the Tigers expected record given a normal runs allowed distribution would be 50.1-35.9. That’s pretty close to their actual 52-34 record.

    Now of course the Tigers runs allowed distribution isn’t representative of MLB. Performing the same exercise with runs allowed, one would expect the Tigers to have a 42.6-43.4 record given normal run support. So essentially without the strength of their offense they’d be a .500 team. This is hardly earth shattering news in that the bats have clearly been the strength of this team. But it does help to highlight the magnitude that the different components have contributed to the resulting record.

    The other thing to note is that on both counts the Tigers record is shy of their actual record. So one could conclude that the team has been a little lucky given the way that things have shaken out. I want to emphasize the little part of luck. If you look at their pythagorean record, they are right on pace with their actual. So this isn’t to say they are doomed or aren’t a good team. I also wouldn’t call this predictive, but simply a record of what has happened so far.

  • links for 2007-07-09

  • All Star Workout Day Open Post

    When the All Star game was in Detroit in 2005 I went to the Home Run Derby. It was fun and all watching Bobby Abreu pelt the Pepsi Porch with long balls. And then it got kind of old. If it weren’t for Pudge Rodriguez making it to the finals it probably would have been one of the most tedious nights I ever spent at a ballpark. Since then I kind of wait for the Home Run Derby to be over. This might happen before 10pm tonight, because of course Bronx is Burning couldn’t possibly start late right?

    So feel free to use this space to post your thoughts on the Home Run Derby. I’ll watch Magglio Ordonez hopefully not screw up his swing, but otherwise I’ll probably be tuning out. If anyone wants to count the number of times Chris Berman says “BACK” I’ll give you a dollar, and you can put it towards the impending therapy.

    In the meantime feel free to ponder the following:

    1. Best Tigers win of the season so far?
      Verlander no hitter
    2. Lowest point of the Tigers season so far?
      Blowing the 5 run lead, twice, against the Indians
    3. What is your favorite food at Comerica Park?
      Mucho Nacho – not cheap but way too much for one person. I was close to finishing it at the Future’s Game in 2005. I was down to the last 1/8th or so and we were standing by the Baseball Tonight set and I realized that my skin was about as strained as John Kruk’s suit and I threw the rest away.
    4. Who should get the next Tiger statue? Alan Trammell, Lou Whitaker, or Sparky Anderson?
      I’m undecided on this one, but I’m leaning towards a join Tram/Lou statue. I don’t know if Sparky is statue worthy, but he should at least have his name on the wall with the other Hall of Famers. That is a huge oversight in my opinion.

  • Tigers Minor League Wrap – 7/8/07

    Toledo 3 Louisville 4
    Chris Shelton: 2-4, 1 RBI
    Timo Perez: 2-4, 2B, RBI
    Dennis Tankersley: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 3 K

    Erie 4 Akron 1
    Matt Joyce: 4-4, RBI. 8-12, 2 HR in last 3 games
    Mike Hollimon 2-5, 2B, 2 RBI, 2 K
    Eddie Bonine: 7IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K

    Sarasota 0 Lakeland 1
    Danny Worth 1-4
    Wilkin Ramirez: 1-4 1 RBI
    Burke Badenhop: 6IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K
    Josh Rainwater: 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 K

    Great Lakes 4 West Michigan 9
    Jordan Newton: 2-3 RBI
    Deik Scram: 2-3, 2B
    Santo De Leon: 2-4, 2B, 3 RBI
    Luis Marte: 6IP, 6 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K

    Oneonta 7 Hudson Valley 8
    Ronnie Bourquin: 3-5 2 RBI
    Chris Carlson: 4-4, 2B, 1 BB, RBI
    Mark Brackman: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K, 2 HR

    GCL Tigers DNP

    Minors News

    I only caught small parts of the Futures Game today, but Matt was disappointed in ESPN’s coverage. But he did say that Gorkys Hernandez was 0-1 with a walk and a run. This was good info because I couldn’t find the box score online. Maybe I’m blind, but I couldn’t track it down on the milb.com site which is disappointing to say the least.

  • You too can be Curtis Granderson’s friend

    Curtis Granderson launched a MySpace page during spring training and it got to be pretty popular. Only trouble is that this weekend while Grandy was hitting homers and taking away others, his page was deleted. With that went all 28,000 friends he had amassed. So clearly he’s a little lonely now.

    So if you were a friend of Curtis or would like to be, send him a new friend request. His page can be found at www.myspace.com/curtisgranderson_official.

  • Game 86: Red Sox at Tigers

    PREGAME: The Tigers are in position to sweep the Red Sox and head into the All Star Break on a real high note. Both teams will probably start some bench guys today with last night’s game lasting 13 innings. Plus, the temperature is supposed to push 100 with some humidty.

    If you’re going to the game the Tigers do let you bring water into the game, so take advantage of that. Just make sure it is sealed when you go through the gates. Otherwise load up on Lemon Chills or take a break from the heat in the AC of the Beer Hall and watch an inning or two on TV.

    The Tigers will have their work cut out for them with Daisuke Matsuzaka on the mound. He’s been freakishly good in his last 4 starts allowing just 2 runs in 29 innings while fanning 34 and walking 10. That’s good enough for a 0.62 ERA and opponents have a .425 OPS over that span. Plus it’s been over a month since the last homer he allowed (June 5th at Oakland).

    Meanwhile, Nate Robertson will be looking for his first win since May 19th. Of course there was some DL time in there as well but it is a 5 game losing skid nonetheless. With the bullpen heavily used last night (lots of pitchers were used, but probably only Jones is unavailble) it would be nice if Nate could get through at least the 6th inning – something he hasn’t done since May 2nd. He is coming off an 8 K appearance though, and he has looked better in his last 2 starts since coming off the DL.

    Game Time 1:05pm

    BOS @ DET, Sunday, July 8, 2007 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

    POSTGAME    : Now that’s a way to head into the All Star Break. Yeah there were 5 errors and a baserunning mistake, and the Tigers nearly let a 4 run lead slip away, but it’s still a sweep. Plus it was with a lineup without 3 starters.

    First the good stuff. The Tigers thumped Matsuzaka. Three homers off of a pitcher that hadn’t allowed one in a month was impressive, and Marcus Thames banging one off the camera well was jaw dropping to say the least. That’s twice on this 5 game winning streak that the Tigers have pounded a front line pitcher. It makes yesterday’s struggles against Kason Gabbard all the more baffling.

    Curtis Granderson’s theft of a Willy Mo Pena homer will be seen countless times, and deservedly so. On Baseball Tonight they ran down the top 5 centerfield web gems from the first half and it was number one beating out Grady Sizemore’s catch on a Curtis Granderson blast.

    • Craig Monroe gets a big double last night and adds two singles today. And yet still has a rough game. His bat has finally produced and now he picks up 2 errors and a baserunning mistake. The first error, a one hop throw right to the plate that Mike Rabelo couldn’t handle was certainly a tough error. The one in the 9th that allowed the tying run to move from 2nd to 3rd was inexcusable though.
    • Last night when Mike Timlin came in I was sure the Tigers would hit a walk off homer off of him. Instead, they did nothing. And then today I thought they would pad their lead, and instead did nothing. Huh.
    • Nate Robertson looked real good at times, and then real bad at times. Particularly frustrating was the inning with 4 walks and a HBP that resulted in 2 runs without the benefit of a hit. I’d guess that on the latter homers in the 7th, Nate was a little gassed. I don’t know that he has all his strength back, plus it was really freakin’ hot.
    • The bullpen wasn’t quite as good today as last night, yet they seemed to still get the big outs when they needed them. Jose Capellan made his own mess with a walk and an error, but also got out of a 2 on, one out jam in the 7th. And then Zach Miner got a big K to end the 8th with the tying run on 2nd.
    • And the closer Todd Jones closed again, the day game after a night game, a night game in which he pitched 2 innings. This one wasn’t quite as easy, but he still protected the one run lead.

  • Tigers Minor League Wrap 7/7/07

    Toledo 8 Louisville 7
    Is Chris Shelton getting his power stroke back, or is it just a couple good games? He went yard again today and added a single. Brent Clevlen was a triple short of the cycle, and that homer was his first of the year. Ron Chiavaccie allowed 5 runs on 8 hits and 5 walks in 5 1/3 innings. Eulogio De La Cruz allowed 2 runs on 2 hits and 2 walks in 2/3 of an inning.

    Erie 7 Akron 5 10 innings
    Erick Almonte went 4 for 5. Matt Joyce was a triple short of the cycle. Roman Colon is apparently on work release and allowed 2 runs on 2 homers in 2 2/3 innings as the starter.

    Lakeland 6 Sarasota 7 10 innings
    Mike Hernandez homered twice to lead the way. Wil Rhymes had 2 hits and 2 walks. Danny Worth made his debut and went 1 for 4 with a walk. Lucas French allowed 3 runs on 5 hits in 5 innings. Kyle Sleeth allowed a run on no hits and 3 walks in 2 2/3 innings.

    Great Lakes 5 West Michigan 1
    Brennan Boesch and Santo De Leon each had 2 hits. Lauren Gagnier allowed 4 runs, only 2 earned, in 7 2/3 innings while fanning 7.

    Oneonta 0 Hudson Valley 8
    Kody Kaiser was 0 for 4 with 2 K’s. Weird. Cory Middleton had the only extra base hit. Sendy Vasquez wasn’t good with 5 hits and 6 walks in only 4 innings.

    GCL Tigers 3 GCL Braves 11
    Londell Taylor went 1 for 3 with a walk. It was his second hit of the season so that had to be a relief. Luis Arlet added 2 hits. Emmanuel Miguelez started and allowed 4 earned runs on 6 hits, no walks, and no K’s in 2 innings.