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  • links for 2007-09-13

  • The 8th Inning

    Sam Hoff has been breaking down how the Tigers do in each 18 games stretch of the season, as 18 games is 1/9th of the season, or 1 inning. The 8th inning includes games through Monday night.

    The 8th Inning is over.

    Each 18 games represent 1 inning of a baseball season. The Tigers record so far in each Inning:

                                                            Starters:         Bullpen:
    W-L   RS-RA   HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L-IP-   ERA       W-L-S-ERA
1: 10-8   86 -79  17-9 -235/313/380    5-2-110.2-3.66      5-6-8-4.68 
2: 13-5   112-97  23-10-308/377/518    9-3-102.1-4.84      4-2-8-5.03
3: 7-11   110-96  26-7 -310/364/517    7-7-110.2-3.99      0-4-3-7.80
4: 13-5   136-75  20-5 -324/390/508   13-4-103.0-4.37      0-1-2-3.47
5: 11-7   91 -79  23-20-272/357/443   10-5-112.0-3.46      1-2-7-3.33 
6: 7-11   84 -113 17-8 -276/325/415    3-8- 99.2-6.59      4-3-6-4.31
7: 7-11   83 -110 20-10-266/315/436   4-10-101.0-6.50      3-1-4-5.12
8: 10-8   95 -77  15-18-298/373/455    4-5- 91.1-4.93      6-3-1-3.18

    The 8th inning started with a loss to Cleveland, the Tigers then took 3 of 4 from the Yankees, that was followed by losing 5 out of 7 to KC, Oakland, and the White Sox. Winning 5 out of the last 6 including last night’s miracle gives some glimmer of hope. I think the Tigers must get to 92 wins and sweep Cleveland in the remaining 3 game set to have a chance. That would mean going 14-4 in the 9th inning. The Tigers have not had a 14-win inning in 2006 or 2007, though they have had four 13-win innings.

    The offense came to life as Granderson, T Perez, and Maggs all batted over 400 with a OPS over 1000 (Granderson and Maggs tied for the lead with 15 RBIs). Polanco, Inge, Pudge and Casey all had good performances. Carlos Guillen was 2-12-235/304/397 as he continues to get RBI even though he is slumping. Thames has played himself onto the bench as he morphed into C-Mo with a 1-7-209/244/349. Ramon Santiago started 8 games and performed as expected (235/297/353). The rest of the team was 127/238/181 in 110 ABs including 0-17 by Sheff.

    Verlander is hot as he won all 3 starts with a 0.83 era. Robertson, Rogers, and Durbin combined for 7 starts without a win, but did have a combined 3.38 era in 40 innings. Bonderman was 1-3 in 4 starts with a 7.91 era. Miller, Jurrgens, and Vasquez had 4 starts combined lasting a TOTAL of 10.1 innings in those starts.

    The back end of the bullpen (Zumaya, Rodney, and Jones) was 0-2 with 1 save and a 5.40 era in 23.2 innings. The middle relief of Grilli, Miner, Seay (3 wins!!!), and Brydak were a combined 4-0 with a 0.92 era and a 0.67 WHIP in 39 innings. The rest of the pen (Bazardo, Capellen, Durbin, and Vasquez) was 2-1 with a 6.23era in 13 innings.

    I read where baseball prospectus gives the Tigers a 15% chance of making the playoffs. I think they may be generous. Unless Cleveland totally collapses (I can’t see a Yankee collapse), we need 14 wins to have a shot. With the rotation in flux and the middle relievers presently carrying the load, 14 wins is a real long shot.

  • Rotation set, Jurrjens stays and Bazardo starts

    The Tigers have set their rotation and Jason Beck has it:

    This Fri-Sun at Minnesota: Robertson, Bazardo and Jurrjens
    Next Mon-Wed at Cleveland: Rogers, Verlander and Robertson
    Next Fri-Sun vs. KC: Jurrjens, Rogers, Verlander
    Sept. 24-26 vs. Minnesota: Robertson, TBA, Jurrjens
    Sept. 28-30 at Chicago: Rogers, Verlander, Robertson

    Notable is that Jair Jurrjens stays in the rotation after feeling fine after last night’s start. Also, Yorman Bazardo who threw 3 innings in the first game yesterday will make his first start of the season. There’s still a TBA so his performance on Saturday will probably determine whether he gets a 2nd start.

    There will be 4 more starts for Nate Robertson and Kenny Rogers. Justin Verlander will have 3 more after tonight.

    Of course if the Tigers get eliminated Jim Leyland may decide to spot start some of the kids in the last couple series.

    Beck’s Blog: Rotation now set

  • Game 147: Rangers at Tigers

    PREGAME: The Tigers will throw out the first pitch of their 4th game in 48 hours tonight. It will be Justin Verlander throwing said pitch, and he’s been quite ace like in his last 3 starts. He’s allowed 2 runs in his last 21 2/3 innings and for tonight anyways he holds the Tigers slim playoff hopes in his hands.

    He’ll be opposed by Edinson Volquez. The right hander is coming off a 2 hit, no run 6 inning effort against the A’s. He’ll be making only his 3rd start of the year. The Tigers faced him once in 2006 an knocked him around for 3 walks and 8 hits chasing him in the 4th inning.

    Game Time 7:05
    TEX @ DET, Wednesday, September 12, 2007 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

  • Game 146: Rangers at Tigers

    PREGAME: Hey! It’s bloggers night so the Tigers are sure to do something…maybe. The Tigers have proven time and time again they aren’t big on momentum, so let’s hope they prove it again and bounce back from this afternoon’s shellacking.

    The pitching match-up is 2 guys who are fresh off the DL in Brandon McCarthy and Jair Jurrjens. Don’t know what to expect from either, but the Tigers used a whole lot of bullpen today. McCarthy will have a short night, and that’s already been decided.

    The Tigers will be sending out their A lineup tonight, which should have gotten some rest today. Meanwhile the Rangers will be tired from swinging the bat and running the bases.

    Game Time 7:05

    TEX @ DET, Tuesday, September 11, 2007 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

  • links for 2007-09-11

  • Game 145: Rangers at Tigers

    PREGAME:It will be Chad Durbin and Vicente Padilla in the first half of today’s doubleheader. Padilla has been awful away from home this year with a 9.06 ERA in 51.7 innings. Last year it wasn’t an issue, so it’s most likely coincidence that his worst starts have come away from Arlington. He spent some time on the disabled list in July and August and in his 5 starts since coming back he has a 4.08 ERA with 16 K’s and 7 BB’s in 28 2/3 innings.

    Durbin has been the ultimate swing man this year. He’s made 34 appearances, 18 as a starter and 16 from the pen. He’s back in the starting role again, and it will be his 2nd start since rejoining the rotation. He pitched 5 shutout innings in 78 pitches against the White Sox. I’d imagine he can throw a few more pitches today, hopefully with similar results.

    The Tigers are using the B lineup, although it’s getting harder to tell them apart. Timo and Casey are hitting 2-3 in the lineup. Maybe Timo and The Mayor can team up for some magic. I mention this only because I wanted to say Timo and The Mayor. Doesn’t it sound like a cop show? Timo and The Mayor. Timo and The Mayor.

    Game Time 1:05

  • The Bonderman Elbow Saga Takes a Positive Turn

    Yes he’s still injured, but at least it isn’t the dreaded UCL injury, and it’s not even the surgically fixable bone chips. Instead everything is intact mechanically and it is diagnosed as elbow inflammation – meaning R & R should resolve it in the short term, though he probably is done for the season. The fact that this has been a recurring injury the last 3 years though means it is something to watch for, and also something the Tigers and Bonderman need to learn how to deal with.

    It also appears the Tigers are going to take a look at how the players and organization communicate about injuries:

    Leyland said the organization will review the process by which players report health issues and how the team documents them. He has no problem with the way the medical staff handled it, he said, but he wants his players to be up-front and honest when they’re not feeling right.

    “If there’s a sign,” Leyland said, “we want to know about the first minor sign of anything.”

    It’s a catch-22, Leyland said, because a sign of an injury could turn out to be a meaningless injury. But they want to get players to at least trust that the club won’t overreact. As Leyland put it, he’s not a mind-reader.

    Jeremy Bonderman also explained his mindset, and it became understandable why he thought he could tough it out:

    “People can criticize if they want,” he said. “I understand where they’re coming from, but my belief is if you don’t go out and try, you never know. I wanted to find out how bad it was. I thought if I could go out and help my team win, that I could keep going.

    “I didn’t tell anybody how bad I was. Maybe I didn’t do the smartest thing in the world, but they gave me a [long-term] contract [last offseason] and they believed in me to go out and pitch.”

    The Official Site of The Detroit Tigers: News: Detroit Tigers News

  • Game 144: Blue Jays at Tigers

    PREGAME: That’s just the kind of season it’s been for the Tigers. They face the Blue Jays 6 times all season, and Roy Halladay starts half of those games.

    Halladay was masterful in his last start against the Tigers when he went 10 innings in an extra inning duel against Jeremy Bonderman. In typical Halladay fashion he’s continued his excellence going 8 or more innings in his last 6 starts.

    The Tigers will hope that Kenny Rogers can repeat his performance from last week against an offense that looks to be a little more of a challenge. And hopefully the Tigers can get at least 6 innings out of Rogers, because with Bonderman going out early yesterday and a double header slated to be started by a swing man and a guy returning from the DL on Tuesday, the pen might get taxed.

    Game Time 7:05
    TOR @ DET, Monday, September 10, 2007 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

    POSTGAME    : Something funny happened in the 9th inning tonight. I was wrapping up this post game section, and I’d actually prepared some analysis. You see, I was frustrated with the Tigers for being so impatient with runners on base. Like did you know that Detroit had 19 plate appearances with runners on base, and 17 with the bases empty. Yet with runners on base they saw all of 50 pitches, and they swung at 29 of them which resulted in a lot of quick innings and enabled Halladay to start the 9th.

    But then the Tigers get a gift of a hit on a blown call, but then the baserunner was eliminated by a tremendous double play so karma evened out. And a 2 out ground ball single seemed harmless enough, but then Brandon Inge laced a single to center to bring up the tying run in the form of Curtis Granderson. As good as Granderson has been this year, he hasn’t been especially clutch, and it seemed that a left handed reliever would take care of him one way or another. But Toronto went to a right handed reliever and Granderson fisted one up the middle, just out of the reach of those pesky infielders scoring 2 runs.

    A line drive single by Polanco put a very speedy tying run in scoring position who was then advanced to third base by a patient Gary Sheffield. Polanco got himself a 2-0 count before singling on 2-1 and Sheffield walked after getting ahead 3-1. I was all set to sing the virtues of patience when Magglio Ordonez comes up and punches the first pitch he sees through the right side to plate Granderson and Polanco. And Ordodnez did his best to stay in the MVP race, even as A-Rod homers every other at-bat.

    It was a tremendous comeback and any win against a pitcher the caliber of Halladay feels that much sweeter.

    Kenny Rogers was very good, and he went deeper than I would have expected. He threw quite a few pitches early, but got through the 5thand 6th on 15 pitches combined.

    And the Tigers won despite losing 2 players to injury as Joel Zumaya went out when he peeled back the fingernail on his index finger and Pudge Rodriguez left with dizziness early on. In the post game presser Jim Leyland said that if Pudge can’t go in the night game tomorrow, Dane Sardhina would be activated, and a 40 man roster move would have to be made.

  • Granderson and the Quad-20

    Congratulations to Curtis Granderson becoming one of only 3 players in the history of Major League Baseball to post a season totals of 20 or more doubles, triples, homers, and stolen bases. While the plateaus are kind of arbitrary it is still a remarkable achievement and helps to highlight just how special of a season that Granderson is having. He’s all over the AL leaderboards:

    Slugging – 5th
    OPS – 9th
    Runs -2nd
    Total Bases – 3rd
    Triples – 1st (with more than double the next closest)
    Runs Created – 4th
    Extra base hits -2nd

    And those ranks were prior to today’s 4 for 4 game. Plus he’s done it while playing a key position expertly in the Major’s biggest centerfield. The guy has to finish in the top 10 in MVP voting or something is seriously wrong.

    As for those other seasons they belong to Frank Wiildfire Schulte and Willie Mays. Each of those seasons were pretty interesting as well.

    Frank Schulte, 1911

    Have you ever taken a look at the 1911 NL leaderboards? If you had you probably knew of Schulte, which not many do. He won the MVP that year as led the league in homers with 21 when the next closest was 16. He led in RBI, total bases, and slugging and tied with Honus Wagner for the lead in adjusted OPS. He stole 21 bases that year, which really wasn’t a big deal for the era, when the leader had 81. But he did so with out being caught once. Interestingly he was second in the league with 31 sacrifice hits. Unlike Granderson Schulte only struck out 76 times. But unlike 2007, that was enough to lead the league.

    Willie Mays, 1957

    People kind of know about Willie Mays, cuz he’s like really good. In 1957 he was a 26 year old who already had an MVP award under his belt. He finished with 35 homers, the best total of the three,, 20 triples, 26 doubles, and 38 stolen bases. He was caught 19 times though which isn’t all that impressive and it was by far the highest total in his career. He managed to wrack up all those extra base hits despite 15 intentional walks. And he racked up all those homers despite striking out only 62 times. But Willie is just really really good.

    Other coverage

    Tiger Tales: A Detroit Tigers Blog: Granderson Reaches 20 20 20 20
    Roar of the Tigers | MVN – Most Valuable Network » Blog Archive » win or lose, Granderson is The Man (possibly The Tiger)

  • Bondo’s elbow is doing more than barking

    After Jeremy Bonderman’s last start we heard mixed reports of “pain”, “fine”, and “barking.” Now his elbow is toast and he looks to be done for the season:

    He admitted afterward that he is feeling a “sharp pain” on the outside of his elbow, and Tigers manager Jim Leyland said Bonderman would “probably” be shut down indefinitely.

    “I’m done for awhile,” Bonderman said. “I know that.”

    Now Bonderman is off to get an MRI and find out the extent of the damage. In any case he should most definitely not pitch again this year and hopefully he won’t need ligament replacement surgery, aka Tommy John Surgery which would keep him off a mound for 9 months.

    When the reports surfaced last week I had this to say:

    If he’s fine then let him pitch, but a macho “we’re in a pennant race and the team needs him, rub some dirt on it” approach would be foolhardy. I don’t know all the details, and the Tigers have exercised considerable caution with their pitchers so I trust that if he’s pitching in his next start the team is confident that it won’t do further harm. But I don’t like the sound of it regardless.

    It seems as if I put way too much faith in the organization to have properly checked him out before today’s start. (ed note: this isn’t a fair statement for me to make. the last thing the org wants to do is risk injuring any player and I’m far from qualified to judge what properly checking him out would be) I would have assumed the MRI would have already been done as a means to clear him to start.

    An elbow injury would certainly explain many of Bonderman’s second half struggles and I wouldn’t be surprised if this dated back to his horrendous start in Anaheim in July. Bonderman had shown an improvement in his walk rate from 2004 on, and it had really dropped early this year. But since that July 29th start he walked 20 in 46.3 innings while only fanning 31 as hitters posted a 954 OPS against him. Prior to that start he had made 19 starts amassing 126.7 innings and only issued 26 walks while fanning 113. There is a clear and marked difference.

    And if you look at the graph, you can see in 2005 he experienced a similar loss of control late in the season as he was shut down with elbow pain (and a line drive off his arm).

    Jeremy Bonderman may not have been saying anything recognizing the dire injury straits the Tigers were already in. Maybe he shouldn’t have tried to be a hero, but on a team where many have questioned heart and dedication it is hard to fault him for trying. I’m just wondering where Chuck Hernandez was in all of this. You have a pitcher who has shown growth in his peripherals throughout his young career, and who was pitching very well early in the season. And he suddenly can’t find the strike zone and his pitches become very hittable for a protracted amount of time and yet he can’t be fixed.

    Whether the problems were mechanical, technique, or as it turns out to be injury related, who was watching the shop? Shouldn’t the fact that things couldn’t be corrected have highlighted a bigger problem?

    Yes I’m second guessing after the fact, and maybe I’m just pissed off with the way the season is going,. And Bonderman shares some culpability in not bringing the problem to anyone’s attention. And I have no idea what took place in all those bullpen sessions and how often the coaches were asking him if he was okay only to be rebuffed. But looking back now it appears to be a case of considerable negligence.

    Bonderman: ‘I’m done for awhile’, MRI scheduled for tomorrow

  • Game 143: Mariners at Tigers

    PREGAME: With a win today the Tigers will a)knock the Mariners out of contention and b)will have sustained a winning streak an entire turn through the rotation. The second is the bigger accomplishment in this blogger’s opinion.

    But it won’t be easy with King Felix Hernandez on the rubber for the Mariners. The Tigers got to him for 10 hits in 6 1/3 inning the last time they met, but he limited the damage to 2 runs and picked up a win. Hernandez has allowed double digit hits in every other start dating back to the beginning of August. Following the pattern would be beneficial for the Tigers.

    And then there is Bonderman who slogged through 5 1/3 innings his last time out and allowed only 3 runs, but none of it was easy – except for a 1-2-3 first inning. When he departed it appeared his elbow was hurting him. So control will be the thing to watch today. Can he command the fastball and does the slider have it’s normal bite?

    Game Time 1:05
    SEA @ DET, Sunday, September 9, 2007 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com