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  • Pinch Hitting: First game memories

    Here’s where I hand it over to you the readers. Earlier this year I celebrated the 25th anniversary of my first Tigers game. I was able to pinpoint the date by searching through retrosheet.

    After seeing the amazing pictures that were taken of the Tiger Stadium last week, and the auction and upcoming demolition, it left me feeling more than a little nostalgic and melancholy.

    So here’s the challenge, see if you can find the box score from your first Tigers game and please post it in the comments.

    Was it at Tiger Stadium, or some place on the road?

    Looking back at the boxscore is there anything that surprised you about the game or didn’t match your recollection?

  • links for 2007-10-03

  • First base irony

    At the start of the 2006 season the Tigers had a log jam at first base with Dmitri Young, Carlos Pena, and Chris Shelton set to man that position and DH. Pena was jettisoned in the spring, while Dmitri Young battled legal and substance abuse problems spending a chunk of the season on the DL in rehab. Meanwhile Chris Shelton was ripping the ball in April putting up Ruthian numbers.

    Fast forward to September 2006. Dmitri Young is released during a rain delay, Chris Shelton is toiling in the minors, and the Tigers have traded for Sean Casey who isn’t hitting a lick.

    Fast forward to October 2007. Chris Shelton is still in the minors as he used up his last option year. Sean Casey slugged on the wrong side of .400 when as a first baseman .400 is the wrong side of .500. And Dmitri Young and Carlos Pena win comeback player of the year awards in their respective leagues.

    You can lament the Tigers moves, but they were also defensible. Young had a lot of problems last year, and they were problems he wasn’t solving in Detroit. And while I was against releasing Pena, he floundered all of last year and barely sniffed playing time with the Yankees and Red Sox and was even cut this year in Tampa. Again, I don’t think he has this type of season if he’s still with Detroit.

    So instead of being frustrated, I’ll simply say congratulations to Dmitri Young for getting his life and career back on track. And congratulations to Carlos Pena for realizing his potential before it was too late.

  • The 9th Inning

    All season, reader Sam Hoff has been calculating the team’s performance over 18 game stretches. Why 18? Because it represents 1/9th, or one inning of the season. Here is his 9th inning report. Thanks to Sam for his contributions all season

    The 9th Inning is over.

    Each 18 games represent 1 inning of a baseball season. The Tigers record for each inning in 2007:

                                                         Starters:         Bullpen:
    W-L   RS-RA   HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L-IP-   ERA       W-L-S-ERA
1: 10-8   86 -79  17-9 -235/313/380    5-2-110.2-3.66      5-6-8-4.68 
2: 13-5   112-97  23-10-308/377/518    9-3-102.1-4.84      4-2-8-5.03
3: 7-11   110-96  26-7 -310/364/517    7-7-110.2-3.99      0-4-3-7.80
4: 13-5   136-75  20-5 -324/390/508   13-4-103.0-4.37      0-1-2-3.47
5: 11-7   91 -79  23-20-272/357/443   10-5-112.0-3.46      1-2-7-3.33 
6: 7-11   84 -113 17-8 -276/325/415    3-8- 99.2-6.59      4-3-6-4.31
7: 7-11   83 -110 20-10-266/315/436   4-10-101.0-6.50      3-1-4-5.12
8: 10-8   95 -77  15-18-298/373/455    4-5- 91.1-4.93      6-3-1-3.18
9: 10-8   90 -71  16-16-292/349/445    7-6-101.1-4.17      3-2-5-3.15

    In my 8th inning recap I said that the Tigers needed a 14 win 9th inning to have a shot. In retrospect, that wouldn’t have been good enough. They would of needed 16 wins to tie the Yankees, or subjectively 15 wins including a sweep of the Indians to tie them. The 9th inning started 5-1 before getting swept at Cleveland which effectively ended the hope for post season. They played 5-4 after being swept.

    In looking at the season above, it is the three 7-11 innings that did the Tigers in. It is no coincidence that those 3 innings are also the only inning in which either the bullpen or the starters had an era over 5.03. No matter what the Tiger offense does (and they outscored the 2006 version by 65 runs), it all comes down to pitching as the Tigers 2007 ERA jumped by 0.74 (3.84 to 4.58). Those numbers are even more exaggerated when you consider that the American League saw less scoring in 2007.

    I’d like to say the Tigers should rebound, but they have the oldest batters in AL (average age 30.9, older than the Yankees 30.6). They also have the 5th oldest pitching staff (28.5, lower than only Boston, NYY, Baltimore, and Cleveland). The pitching age is probably a deceiving figure as the Tigers do have a bevy of young starters.

    In the 9th inning, the offense was lead by regulars Ordonez 2-11-397/462/603, Guillen 2-8-299/356/478, and Granderson 2-3-273/355/455. Casey ended his Tiger career with 1-6-424/457/545 in 33 abs. Timo Perez flirted with 400 having 0-7-381/409/500. Righty platoon players Hessman, Rayburn, and Thames went a combined 6-20-302/333/698 on only 63 abs (Interestingly Rayburn and Hessman hit RHP better during the year, although Thames had a huge advantage against LHP). Polanco went 1-4-309/338/412 and Santiago had a similar 0-5-312/333/406. Sheffield> 1-4-234/379/319, Pudge> 0-7-269/278/346, and Inge> 0-6-167/224/222 all limped to the end of personal subpar years. Rabelo, Infante, Cleven, and Maybin went a combined 1-4-163/200/279 in 43 abs.

    The Starters were lead by Nate Robertson who was 2-2-3.25era in 4 starts (Nate also had a nice 1st inning as he was 4-3-2.67era-1.15whip in the 1st and 9th innings, and 5-10-5.68-1.62 in innings 2-8). Verlander was 2-1-4.38 giving up 6 HRs including 4 against Cleveland in his 9/18 start. Rogers may have ended his career with 0-2-4.26-1.63. Jurrgens 2-0-5.74-1.34 and Bazardo 1-0-1.84-1.16 may have given us a preview of things to come in 2008.

    The bullpen had a very solid 9th inning performance. Lefties Tim Byrdak and Bobby Seay completed very nice seasons by combining for 2-0-0.69-0.92 in 13 innings. Righties Grilli and Miner combined for 0-1-2.25-1.58 in 12 innings. The back end of the bullpen of Zoom-Zoom, Rodney, and Jones combined for 1-1-5sv-2.75-1.07 in 19.2 innings. The rest of the bullpen was 0-0-8.38-1.55 in 9.2 innings.

    It should be an interesting off season. The last 2 years have been similar in the fact that the team started strong then hit huge speed bump. In 2006 the Tigers had the best record in baseball at 76-36 on 8/7, but went 11-23 in their next 34 games then finished 8-8 to go 95-67. In 2007, the Tigers had the best record in baseball at 57-36 on 7/19, but went 11-23 in their next 34 games. A 20-15 after that lead to an 88-74 overall finish.

  • links for 2007-10-02

  • Tigers extend Leyland

    The Detroit Tigers made it official today and announced a one year contract extension that will keep Jim Leyland managing the club through the 2009 season. No real surprise here.

  • Breaking down the Dombrowski pow-wow

    Dave Dombrowski held court today in what was deemed an informal availability session and broached a number of topics.  Jason Beck was first to the web with the bullet points.  Definitely click through to Beck’s reporting, but I’ll weigh in on the bullets as well.

    Pudge Rodriguez

    No decision yet on Pudge and Dombrowski indicated the team might use their full allotment of time (10 days after the World Series) to make a decision. I just documented my thoughts on the situation and believe Pudge needs to be back next year. Whether that means picking up the option, or buying him out and inking him to a 2 year deal that pays him $7-8 million per – I’d be okay with both.

    Todd Jones

    Beck says:

    They’ve expressed their interest in bringing Todd Jones back for next year, but while he would come back as a closer to start the year, they wouldn’t commit to keeping him there as the season went on.

    I like the plan, and don’t want to see Jones blocking Zumaya. At the same time, if Jones is back, and can’t hold down the closer role that probably isn’t a good sign. Also, Jones is looking to see if Atlanta would be interested so he could be closer to home. I’ll be taking a deeper dive look at Jones coming up soon.

    The rotation

    Three spots are set and allocated to Verlander/Bonderman/Robertson. One spot will go to a veteran – like Kenny Rogers if he chooses to come back or another acquisition if he doesn’t- and the other spot will go to a kid to be determined. While trading Robertson would bring back some value, it also leaves a hole in the rotation and going into the season counting on more than one of Jurrjens/Miller/Bazardo to hold down a roster spot for a full year is a risky proposition. The thought of the three of them holding down one spot and then being available for injuries/tired arms is pretty appealing. Plus a one year deal for Rogers means the whole veteran presence without commiting to someone who might block a youngster when they are ready.

    Left Field

    Will look to get a left handed bat for the outfield that could be a starter, or a platoon partner for Marcus Thames. The ability to get a starter will probably be directly impacted on the cost of a shortstop, and whether or not they need to fill Kenny’s spot with a longer term contract that would consume more resources.

    Jurrjens and Sheffield

    Jurrjens will be spending the offseason with Gary Sheffield and working with Sheff’s trainer so that Jurrjens gains strength. I can only wonder how this came about. Did the club initiate it? Did Jurrjens initiate it? Was it Sheffield’s idea? For some reason this just strikes me as a fascinating conversation and a very interesting dynamic. A veteran slugging outfielder near the end of his career teaming up with a 21 year old rookie pitcher from Curacao to build strength. Good times.

    Beck’s Blog: No extension for Leyland … yet

  • links for 2007-10-01

  • To Pudge or not to Pudge

    One of the Tigers biggest decisions this off season will be whether or not to exercise Pudge Rodriguez’s $13 million option.  The net cost to the Tigers is $10 million because there is a $3 million buyout.  But be it $10 million or $13 million there is no way that Rodriguez will be “worth” what he is owed.  Still I think exercising the option is something the Tigers should do.

    Rodriguez has caught over 2000 games, and is in a well expected decline phase of his career.  Next year he’ll be 36 and there’s no reason to believe things will be better.  His slugging percentage has declined each of the last 4 years and the .420 slugging he posted this year was the lowest since 1993.

    But his slugging is the acceptable part of his offensive stat line.  For the second time in the last 3 years he finished with a sub .300 on base percentage.  He’s drawn a whopping 46 walks the last 3 years combined.

    And then there is his defense.  Rodriguez is much heralded for his ability to shut down the running game, and it has been largely deserved up until this year.  However his caught stealing rate fell to 29% this year which was the lowest of his career.  He also had trouble blocking balls as he allowed .510 passed balls and wild pitches to get by him per game.

    Okay, so I haven’t painted a compelling reason to bring him back.  But it really comes down to a matter of if not Pudge, then who?  The free agent class includes the likes of Jason Kendall and Michael Barrett.    Two of the bigger names are Paul Lo Duca and Jorge Posada, but both are the same age as Rodriguez which is a dangerous age for a catcher.

    Rodriguez’s offensive numbers were bad, and I don’t really look for them to get better.  I’d expect a few more walks and a slightly better OBP next year, but I also expect the slugging to continue to drop.  But even with the decline he’s still better than Lo Duca who had a .690 OPS this year.

    As for the defense, Rodriguez was still above average at throwing out baserunners and ranked 5th among all starting catchers.  While his kills were down, it was in a year when stolen base percentage reached an all time high of 74.6%.  Plus throw in the deterrent that his reputation is and he had the 4th fewest attempts per game against him.  And it was still superior to Lo Duca’s 19% or Posada’s 22%.

    As for the passed balls and wild pitches, he does rank 3rd from the bottom.  He does rank ahead of Posada and he’s 2 spots behind A.J. Pierzynski who just received a 2 year extension that will pay him $6.25 million in 2009 and 2010. 

    Out of all the options, Rodriguez’s might be the most palatable.  Upgrading the position is going to be difficult at best and could prove to be impossible.  I’m not going to say that Rodriguez won’t be overpaid if he comes back, but do you overpay for 1 year of Pudge or 3 to 4 years of another mediocre catcher?

    Danny Knobler is saying that the Tigers are likely to turn down the option I don’t know if he is reporting or opining, but his information is usually pretty good.  If that’s the case I’d hope that the Tigers look to bring back Pudge for not one, but two more years at a discounted per year rate.

    Tigers unlikely to bring back Pudge – MLive.com: Detroit Tigers
    THT Catching – Major League Baseball Statistics

  • DTW in the offseason

    Just a quick note of thanks to everyone here. Thanks to everyone who participated in the comments which kept the site going when I was too worn out too. Thanks to all of the readers and subscribers who kept coming back day in and day out. The site averaged over 1000 visitors a day throughout the season, and there are now over 700 subscribers to the RSS feed. So thanks for visiting, reading, participating, and telling your friends.

    As for the site in the offseason, things won’t stop around here. There will be plenty of news and I’ll do my best to be on top of it. I’ll also be slicing and dicing the past season a number of different ways including a detailed look at many of the key players from 2007. I also have a database full of enhanced gameday data to work with and hopefully I’ll dig up something interesting.

    I also hope to do some organizational analysis, and will be keeping tabs on the fall and winter leagues. And as I have the past couple offseasons I’ll try and arrange an interview or two.

    So keep coming back this winter, and I encourage you to subscribe so you won’t miss anything new.

    Now with all that said, this coming week will be light as I finish up another project. But I do have one site enhancement already in place. I’m compiling a “Best of” page with links to some of my favorite posts. So yes, I’m pitching re-runs to you.

  • Stay classy Sean Casey

    While there is a lot up in the air regarding the Tigers roster, one thing isn’t and that is Sean Casey’s future.  Casey met with Dombrowski and Leyland and they let him know he won’t be returning.

    This isn’t a big surprise given the Tigers announcement that Carlos Guillen would be moving to first base.  And while there was a contingent who would like to see Casey kept around as a pinch hitter, it isn’t feasible in an era of 12 man pitching staffs.  Casey can’t run and can only play the easiest defensive position to fill which just isn’t enough to justify a roster spot.

    Casey was a popular guy, but the production just wasn’t there.  His .296/.354/394 line was about as good as what could be expected given his career numbers.  The only real surprising part of his season is that he stayed healthy.

    Casey was basically all of the Tigers offense in the World Series last year and so Tigers fans should have some fond memories of The Mayor.

    Casey won’t return to Tigers

  • Game 162: Tigers at White Sox

    PREGAME: Sigh.

    List of team and offensive feats that may happen today so there is something to root for:

    • Magglio Ordonez needs to not go 0 for 6 and Ichiro Suzuki needs to not make an out and the Tigers have their first batting champ since 1961.  Maggs is also looking to see if he can add on at all, and perhaps move ahead of Norm Cash’s .361 average.
    • Placido Polanco needs one more hit to reach 200.  If he gets to 200, it will mark the first time since 1937 2 Tigers have finished with 200 or more hits.
    • Curtis Granderson is at .299 and will try to push that to .300
    • Ordonez needs 3 RBI to become only the 4th Tiger to ever drive in 140 runs in a season
    • The team is 2 doubles shy of matching the team record for doubles in a season set in 1934
    • The team has 1634 hits which is the highest total since the 1934 club notched 1638

    Game Time 2:05
    DET @ CHW, Sunday, September 30, 2007 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

    POSTGAME: Considering what the Tigers had left to play for, everything came up roses today. Polanco got his 200th hit and finished an errorless season. Guillen got his 2 RBIs. Granderson finished over .300 picking up 3 hits (not to mention a walk, a HBP, and 3 steals).

    And Magglio Ordonez already had pretty much locked up the batting title, but a 3 hit day pushed his average to .363. That’s the highest mark for a Tiger since Charlie Gehringer’s .371 in 1937. In case you missed it, FSN Detroit was cutting into the Venezuelan broadcast after each Ordonez hit, and while my Spanish skills are limited to what I learned in high school (which has been refreshed by Dora the Explorer), there was no mistaking the excitement.

    Even Mike Rabelo managed to get a homer today, and while the bullpen was going crazy for him, his own teammates were giving him the silent treatment.

    It really wasn’t the way anybody wanted to the end the season, but all things considered they made the best of what they had today. And it was fun. It was fun watching the team having fun. Exactly 6 months until we get to start it up again.