The Detroit Tiger Weblog

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  • 2007 DIBS Awards Announced

    A couple years back myself, Brian Borawski, and Ryan Sosin decided to try and unite the group of Tigers bloggers. We came up with an acronym and a logo and then we decided to vote on some year end awards. This is the 3rd year of DIBS awards. This year’s winners are Magglio Ordonez for player of the year, Justin Verlander as pitcher of the year, and Curtis Granderson as breakout player of the year. There’s more description in the press release below, but I’ll just say that I voted for all the winners.

    (more…)

  • links for 2007-11-29

  • Gushing reports on Porcello

    While the Tigers received bad news in the form of Casey Crosby’s Tommy John surgery, the news is ridiculously upbeat concerning Rick Porcello. Lynn Henning chats with Glenn Ezell (director of player development) and Jon Matlack (roving pitching instructor) and has all kinds of praise for the first rounder.

    “I don’t know what he’ll pitch at, but he hit 97 (mph) numerous times and worked comfortably at 94-95,”

    and…

    “He has two quality breaking balls (overhand curveball and slider), which are occasionally above-average, and one of which I believe will become better than average.

    “And he has a plus change-up,”

    and…

    “He can do things with his fastball: sink it, run it in, ride it. He is far, far advanced beyond just about anyone 18 years old I’ve ever worked with.”

    Now keep in mind these are very early reports and are based solely on the instructional league. But it is far better than hearing that he sucks, or that is stuff is pretty good.

    At the end Henning mentions that Porcello is likely to start the season at West Michigan, which was to be expected. But he also throws out the nugget that he could finish the year in Lakeland. Don’t know if that is speculation on Henning’s part, or if the Tigers will look to really challenge him – provided he fares okay for the Whitecaps

  • links for 2007-11-27

  • The Tigers Defense – What are the Odds?

    Over the last month or so, David Pinto has released the majority of his studies using his probabilistic model of range (PMR). Today we’ll delve into the Tigers defense using this advanced metric.

    I’ve explained PMR in the past, but a refresher is probably worthwhile. The PMR model uses data play by play data collected by Baseball Info Solutions. Pinto uses 3 years of this data to find out the probability that a batted ball will be converted into an out. In doing this he accounts for the handedness of the batter and pitcher, the type of hit (grounder, fly, etc), how hard the ball was hit, and the direction the ball was hit. The beauty of the system is that it provides context to the data. Players who have harder to field opportunities get credit it for it. It also removes the subjectivity of an official scorers decision.

    What the system doesn’t do is account for throwing ability for outfielders. So a Jacque Jones upgrade in range would be lessened by a weak throwing arm.

    On to the data. The first table shows how the Tigers fared by position.

    Position In play Plays Exp Plays DER Exp DER Rate Runs
    Pitcher 4486 167 159.73 0.037 0.036 104.55 5.5
    First Base 4486 296 310.16 0.066 0.069 95.44 -10.7
    Second Base 4486 505 494.43 0.113 0.11 102.14 8.0
    Shortstop 4486 517 536.95 0.115 0.12 96.28 -15.0
    Third Base 4486 446 426.09 0.099 0.095 104.67 15.9
    Left Field 4486 327 331.6 0.073 0.074 98.61 -3.8
    Centerfield 4486 468 445.78 0.104 0.099 104.98 23.0
    Right Field 4486 318 319.88 0.071 0.071 99.41 -1.6

    (more…)

  • links for 2007-11-24

  • Happy Thanksgiving

    This is the part where the blogger who has been having a slow week in the idea department throws up a post listing the things he’s thankful for related to the topic that he/she covers.

    • Curtis Granderson legging out triple after triple.
    • Magglio Ordonez having a magical season with the bat
    • Justin Verlander’s no hitter
    • Baseball games that end at 3:30 in the morning
    • Brandon Inge diving into the stands
    • Placido Polanco flawless at second
    • That Dave Dombrowski is the GM of the Tigers and not some other team
    • Having a son who is as passionate about the Tigers and baseball as I am
    • Having a wife who is exceedingly tolerant of said obsession and a daughter who wants to play tee ball
    • Having the outlet and forum to share said obsession with other obsessed fans

    Now go check out America’s Thanksgiving Day Parade with Grand Marshall Nate Robertson.

    Happy Thanksgiving!

  • links for 2007-11-20

  • The Hardball Times Annual

    Every week leading up to Christmas I’m going to have a post that details a terrific gift idea. Okay, not really. But I am going to plug the 2008 Hardball Times Baseball Annual!. Every year it is an incredible blend of commentary and hard core number crunching, so it has something for everyone – or at least baseball fans.

    This year there is a little extra incentive for Tigers fans because there is an in depth profile of Detroit General Manager and President Dave Dombrowski. Oh yeah, and I wrote it so you better buy it.

    But seriously, there is a ton of great stuff and Dave ‘studes’ Studeman runs it all down in the link above. There are pieces by Will Leitch, MGL, Tangotiger, Bill James, John Dewan, Dave Cameron, Brian Gunn, and the list goes on and on.

    And when I look at the list I can’t figure out how the hell I got in there, but I’m flattered and honored to be included with such an wonderful group. So thanks to Studes and Brian for inviting me to contribute.

    As for how to get the book, you can pre-order it from Acta Sports. This method actually generates the most revenue for the Hardball Times site, which is a good thing. The guys aren’t getting rich off of this. They have to pay the authors, and all those stats that they present for free actually cost money. This helps in a big way to fund the site. Of course if you don’t want to buy the book, or want to get it from Amazon or some other outlet, you can always still donate to the THT on the right hand side of their home page. (hat tip to Inside the Book for the suggestion).

    Thanks for allowing me this brief commercial. I now return you to your regularly scheduled Kenny Rogers speculation (the team and Rogers are negotiating again).

  • links for 2007-11-17

  • As the elusive veteran pitcher world turns

    There was quite a bit of drama for a Friday evening as Kenny Rogers fired Scott Boras. Rogers sent an email to all GM’s (wouldn’t that be a neat distribution list to have?) saying that he was now representing himself. This seems like great news for the Tigers who were hoping to resign Rogers. Kenny sent an email last night to Jason Beck saying that he still hopes to be a Tiger in 2008.

    I do expect Rogers to sign by Monday at the latest, but am a little curious why he emailed all the GM’s. (**wild blog speculation ahead**) Perhaps he was just trying to confirm the discussions that Boras had had with various clubs and the various offers that had or hadn’t been made. Maybe Rogers distrusted Boras, or didn’t think he was accurately representing his wishes. Or maybe he’s just trying to understand his market for his own sake. (**end wild blog rumor mongering**) And it probably doesn’t matter. By his own admission Rogers wants to be hear, and the Tigers haven’t shown to be cheap when it comes to players they want.

    Regardless, Jon Paul Morosi gives us yet another free agent pitcher name to consider in the form of Hiroki Kuroda. Kuroda is from Japan, but is a free agent so there is no posting fee like the Red Sox incurred with Daisuke Matsuzaka. Kuroda is a 32 year old right hander who stands 6′ 1″

    I honestly don’t know much about Kuroda, but did find 2 assessments. One is from MLB Trade Rumors which had this report

    One number to remember here: 300, as in 300 feet to left and 300 feet to right. That’s the stadium Kuroda spent 10 years in, and still he managed to post a sub-2.00 ERA in 2006 and go 13-6. What could he do in Petco with 67 extra feet to left to play with? Tak says that at the least, he’s an innings eater.

    Meanwhile Baseball Prospectus had him rated as a top tier Japanese free agent and had this to say:

    He’s not Daisuke Matsuzaka, but Kuroda a very strong power pitcher with a low to mid-90s fastball and a wicked forkball. In addition, he features a plus shuuto, something like a screwball, as well as an effective change. Even if he only pans out as a third or fourth starter in the majors, he will give you innings, work deep into games, and he should be fairly consistent start to start.

    For an asking price of $7-8 million over 3 years he certainly would rate as intriguing at this point.

    I still think that the Tigers should look to add someone beyond Rogers and had been thinking of Bartolo Colon or Kerry Wood. A couple of risky guys with some upside who could be had for 1 year deals. Give said pitcher the last spot in the rotation. If it doesn’t work out you haven’t invested a lot and Andrew Miller is still waiting in the wings. It also means that if Miller isn’t ready, or Rogers can’t go a full season (both decent possibilities) it is another layer of depth.

  • Not Livan Hernandez

    As the Tigers continue to look for a veteran starting pitcher, it was probably inevitable that speculation about former 1997 Florida Marlin Livan Hernandez would arise. Dave Dombrowski has a penchant for the familiar, and Jim Leyland seems to have a considerable say in roster construction, and Hernandez is an older NL player. Throw in a glaring Tigers need and this was bound to happen. But it shouldn’t and I get the feeling this could be Jose Mesa the sequel.

    What Hernandez has going for him is that he’s a workhorse. He’s amassed over 200 innings every year since 1998 except for once, when he only got to 199 2/3. And for a time he was effective. From 2003 to 2005 he was a pretty good pitcher. But he’s turned in an ERA+ south of 100 9 times while being above average only 5 times. And that was when he was a younger pup.

    He’s coming off an age 32 season in which he only struck out 3.96 batters per 9 innings and walked 3.48. He allowed 34 homers last year. Granted, Arizona is an easier place to hit homers with a park factor of 115 (15% easier to hit homers there than an average park), but the other numbers don’t paint a pretty picture. His FIP last year was a replacement level-esque 5.73. And if you’re wondering about the defense behind him, his fielders were a hair better than average last year. Using PMR, they converted 6 more balls in play into outs than would be expected.

    Even if Hernandez were to benefit from a less homer friendly park, that benefit would be far surpassed by the hit he’d take for moving leagues and for his continued aging.

    I understand the desire for a solid starting pitcher, but Hernandez doesn’t represent that. That the Tigers continue to focus on aging veteran players from the weaker league is a concern, and this is yet another instance. If the Tigers are looking for this type of production, and are looking to save money, just hand the ball to Jordan Tata or Virgil Vasquez or Yorman Bazardo who I am confident could post an ERA north of 5 just as easily as Hernandez could. And those guys make the league minimum. If you’re going to balk at paying $10-12 million for a league average pitcher, then $7 million for performance that could be had for free should surely make you shudder.