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  • Dontrelle plus 3

    The Tigers and Dontrelle Willis agreed on a 3 year contract. The Tigers will pay Willis $7 million in 2008, $10 million in 2009, and $12 million in 2010.

    It’s a very reasonable deal with limited downside. The surge in homers and walks last year was disturbing, but he should benefit from Comerica Park’s left field which is more favorable for fielding than Florida and may trap a few of those homers. Of course Willis is a ground ball pitcher and he’ll have better defense at short and second than he had in 2007.

    Plus given his age there is a decent chance he rebounds and gets better. There’s also the chance he was overworked at a young age and the injury he said he battled in 2007 could simply be foreshadowing of larger problems.

    Regardless, there is little not to like. Given the current market for starting pitchers, and even discounting that Willis isn’t on the open market, the contract appears to be a very fair valuation.

    Danny Knobler has some notes from presser and came away impressed. And for those wondering Willis will wear 21 in honor of Deion Sanders.

  • Outfield Park Factors part 2

    Earlier in the week, I questioned the widely held belief of whether with an outfield like Comerica Park’s the Tigers should have 2 centerfielder-types to man the large left and center fields. Using park factors and looking at the rate at which balls in the air drop in for hits, we saw that fewer balls drop in in left and center at Comerica Park, while more tend to fall in right field. Now we’ll take a look at what happens when the balls do drop in.

    Again I will turn to park factors. And again I will borrow from Dan Fox and use a metric that is total bases per baserunner. And like the previous analysis, I focused on balls in the air.

    The tables below represent the park factors for each of the areas of the outfield, as well as an overall rate. (click the chart for a larger image)
    Outfield Park Factors Extra Bases

    Here’s where the Comerica Park we know and love comes out. There is more extra base goodness in Comerica Park’s center field than any other stadium, and not surprisingly it comes in the form of triples. Over the last 4 years 8.7% of all triples hit to center field in the Majors have come in Detroit. Here is the distribution of hit type on balls fielded by the center fielder:

    	1B	2B	3B
MLB	68%	28%	5%
DET	63%	25%	13%

    If the ball gets to the wall, only the slowest of the slow runners aren’t going to end up with a triple. While it’s not surprising to see doubles turned into triples, it is a little surprising to see so many singles turned into triples. It must be a function of the fact that centerfielders play relatively shallow cutting off many would be singles which does correspond with the earlier data where fewer balls drop into center field at Comerica.

    But back to the original question about the difficulty of playing left field in Detroit, the data just doesn’t bare that out. Fewer balls drop for hits, and there are fewer bases per baserunner in left field. In right field we see a few more balls dropping for hits, but it is one of the toughest fields to get extra bases. Perhaps the right fielders are playing too deep?

    While having multiple outfielders with above average speed and range is never a bad thing – especially in larger parks of which Comerica Park definitely ranks – there isn’t anything about Comerica’s left field that makes it any more necessary than in any other stadium. While the argument for “2 centerfielders” can certainly be made, it really only looks like it would help if they were both manning center at the same time.

    The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at www.retrosheet.org

  • links for 2007-12-18

  • Comerica Park’s outfield is so big…

    “How big is it?”

    You need 3 center fielders to cover all the ground out there

    Okay, as a joke it’s awful, but it is a common statement amongst Tigers fans. At the very least the belief is that multiple center fielder type players are required to man left and center fields. When you look at the massive expanse of green, it certainly seems believable. But when I go through the game rolodex in my head, I don’t recall an inordinate number of balls landing in the left-center gap. Center field is a massive piece of real estate, but since the ball park was reconfigured left field seems quite manageable. Does Comerica really play as big as it’s reputation in left and center fields?
    (more…)

  • links for 2007-12-17

  • Well I’m glad that’s over

    After an obscene amount of coverage for an event that will change baseball forever, the long awaited Mitchell report was released today. In it we learned that it is hard to get dirt on people if you don’t have any legal authority to make them tell you stuff. And if the stuff is self-incriminating it is even harder to get people to talk. So can we move on now?

    So what did we learn? That some former Tigers used anabolic steroids and HFH with mixed results. My fellow Tigers bloggers have already covered this in depth so I suggest you read their takes.

    As for me, it’s hard to be truly surprised. If I were going to guess 3 former Tigers to be on the list, I doubt that Rondell White, Fernando Vina, or Nook Logan would have even been in my top 5. At the same time it makes perfect sense as well. A couple guys who can’t stay healthy and a guy that relies on speed and probably wants to add some punch. But the Tigers sampling does show how widespread and varied the use may be (probably is). We also learned that you shouldn’t buy such drugs with personal checks in the event a supplier has his home raided.

    Mike Valenti from the Ticket 97.1 was complaining that the report was boring and that there weren’t enough names of significance. He complained that many of the players names were essentially nobodies. I’m not sure what Valenti was looking for in terms of entertainment value and shock and awe. But instead of dismissing the non-significant players he perhaps should have realized that the report may be indicative of steroid use in MLB

    It’s what would appear to be a random sampling of baseball’s population. It’s guys like Roger Clemens — and Jason Christiansen. It’s Miguel Tejada — and Mike Lansing. It’s Jason Giambi — and Jeremy Giambi. If anything, in fact, the list appears to have a tilt toward marginal players rather than stars, something which might have been predicted based on both the circumstantial statistical evidence, and the underlying incentives behind steroid usage: it’s the guys who are trying to become millionaires — not those who are millionaires already –who have the most reason to cheat.

    Nate Silver – Baseball Prospectus

    In the end I don’t know much more than I did before. There did appear to be some assurances that the drug program is helping – not solving mind you – but helping curtail the use of steroids. The sport will never be clean, but the efforts to date look to be moving things in the right direction. The afternoon also affirmed most widely held beliefs about Bud Selig and his buffoonery. He schedules a press conference but can’t answer questions because he hasn’t read the report. Also Bud urges everyone to not dwell in the past when it comes to holding MLB accountable, but he’s prepared to hand out punishments for the players role. Nice Bud.

    So the Mitchell Report is done. A couple years and tens of millions of dollar later we finally learn the information that local, state, and federal authorities discovered while conducting investigations. Whoopee.

  • Not so tender moment for Durbin, but Byrdak has that loving feeling

    Chad Durbin’s stint as a Detroit Tiger came to an end today when the club made the decision to not tender him a contract. Durbin, who entered 2007 out of options made the team as a bullpen arm as the team broke spring training. But an injury to Kenny Rogers thrust Durbin into the starting rotation.

    Durbin made 19 starts and appeared in 36 games in total. He did a decent job as a swing man, and when he was returned to the bullpen he even was given some critical innings.

    But I think Durbin’s fate was sealed on September 11th. The Tigers were coming off their dramatic come from behind victory against the Blue Jays and had a double header against the Rangers as they tried to hang in the playoff race. Durbin started the first game and was rocked for 2 homers, a double, and 3 singles before being lifted in the 3rd inning.

    Durbin didn’t make it into another game until September 25th when he pitched the 9th inning of an 8-0 game. That would be his last appearance of the season. It was clear that Durbin lost his manager’s trust during that September 11th game.

    When you factor in the bullpen crunch the Tigers have with a number of players out of options (Cruceta, Bazardo) and another pitcher who can fill the same role (Zach Miner), it just didn’t add up for Durbin staying with the team.

    The move also means the Tigers have a free spot on their roster.

    All those other guys

    Tim Byrdak on the other hand was inked to a one year deal. He’ll make $700,000 in 2008 which isn’t a bad price for a decent LOOGY. The question is whether Byrdak will be a decent LOOGY. His career was nondescript until last season and there aren’t a lot of guys who blossom at age 33. But Byrdak did add a new split finger pitch and did fan more than a batter per inning so I think he has a decent chance to be productive.

    As for the other guys, they were all tendered contracts which wasn’t a big surprise. Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Bobby Seay, and Nate Robertson weren’t going anywhere. Marcus Thames has been the subject of trade talks, but the Tigers weren’t going to let him go for nothing. By tendering contracts it insures that the Tigers will be paying each of these players in 2008 and Cabrera and Robertson are particularly likely to get long term contracts. I’d suspect that they’d like to lock up Willis, who is fond of the idea, but want to see if he bounces back from a rough 2007 first.

    If you’re wondering about the process, the players and teams can continue to negotiate. On January 18th the two sides will exchange figures. Then starting February 1st arbitration hearings will be held. The players and agents talk about how great they are, while the teams talk about all the flaws of the players and why they don’t deserve more money. An awkward situation to be sure, and one that Dombrowski has avoided historically. I’d be stunned if any of these cases made it to the hearing and expect contracts to be hammered out in January.

  • links for 2007-12-12

  • The Dontrelle Files

    We know Dontrelle Willis has the big leg kick and the bigger smile, but let’s take a graphical and statistical look at the Tigers newest starter.

    The pitch selection

    Using Josh Kalk’s pitch f/x tool we can look at the mix of pitches that Willis throws and the success he has with each pitch in his repertoire.

    Willis has 2 fastballs, one with more sink and vertical movement – presumably a 2 seamer – that he throws most frequently. He also appears to have a 4 seam fastball which he doesn’t throw as often. He has an 86 MPH change up and an 80 MPH slider that makes it tough for lefties.


    (more…)

  • links for 2007-12-11

  • The Coda

    Wrapping up some outstanding items from what very well could be one of the most significant trades in franchise history…

    Replenishment

    Peter Gammons astutely pointed out that the Tigers were able to make this trade because of Ilitch’s and Dombrowski’s refusal to adhere to the asinine draft slotting system. Not only did a willingness to pay above slot money directly allow for the acquisition of main trade chits Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin, it also meant that a this type of aggressiveness meant that the Tigers cupboard – while depleted – isn’t bare.

    Many of the Tigers new top prospects are the product of slot-buster signings in the most recent draft. Headlined by Rick Porcello, the group also includes Cale Iorg and Casey Crosby among others.

    The question then becomes how long can this remain an advantage for the Tigers? Surely other organizations have taken notice of the Tigers strategy, and it’s not that different than what other big market clubs have done. While some teams will still religiously adhere to the slotting system, I have to believe that more teams adopt a more aggressive stance on acquiring top shelf talent early on.

    Will the Tigers be able to reload quickly by just outspending on the draft? I don’t mean to minimize the work that David Chadd and his scouts do, because it is easy to make bad decisions with big piles of money. But when you’re willing to spend what it takes to get Maybins and Millers and Porcellos, it certainly improves your chances for success.

    On the defensive

    I just wanted to do a quick follow up on the value of Cabrera’s defense. It was a hot topic here on Friday and commentor Ryan S pointed out that PMR thought Cabrera was okay in 2006. I should have looked at more than one year of data, and in my haste I got a little sloppy. In terms of run value PMR had Cabrera at +5.2 runs in 2006 at the hot corner. Perhaps Cabrera isn’t awful, and simply underperformed in 2007 due to his weight gain, or the crappy Florida environment.

    Taking it a little further I also looked at UZR numbers for Cabrera. In 2006 he rated -14 runs per 150 games. That happened to be the worst rating for third baseman who played at least 120 games. In 2007 UZR rated Cabrera as the worst third baseman in the National League at -28 runs while Brandon Inge ranked tops in the AL at +12.

    As for his outfield prowess, he was merely below average in UZR splitting time between left and right field in 2004, but was -21 runs per 150 games while manning left in 2005.

    (more…)

  • links for 2007-12-07