2008 Season, Fan Experience

Only way to get Opening Day tickets

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The Tigers announced that a limited number of full season ticket packages are now on sale. They also announced, and this really isn’t a surprise, that there will be no single Opening Day seats available when single game tickets go on sale on Saturday morning. So if you want Opening Day at face value, you’ll have to go the full season route.

Of course there are always resellers like StubHub. Right now there are 434 listings with the cheapest seat being a single bleacher ticket for $149.99. To get a pair closer to the field than Ford Field it starts at $165. These prices are up considerably since the $130’s where tickets were listed in January.

Other details for the single game ticket sales include:

Individual tickets for all other games on the 2008 schedule will be available on March 1, while supplies last, and individual purchases on Saturday will be limited to 12 tickets per game.

For fans purchasing tickets at the Comerica Park Box Office on Saturday, wristbands will be distributed by ballpark security personnel beginning at 6 p.m. on Friday, February 29. Customers with wristbands will be given priority when the lines are formed. Customers will not be allowed to stand in line at the Box Office until 8 a.m. on Saturday, March 1. Free parking will be available in Lot 1 at Comerica Park for people purchasing tickets.

Single game tickets will go on sale on Saturday at 10 a.m. at the Comerica Park Box Office, online at www.tigers.com, over the telephone by calling (866) 66-TIGER (84437), at 32 Detroit-area Meijer stores and at Hockeytown Authentics, 1845 E. Big Beaver Road, in Troy.

The Meijer store option is new, and might be a decent bet.

2008 Season, Managing & Strategy

One lineup question answered

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One of the few mysteries for Tigers fans to debate this spring is the batting order. The players that will comprise that lineup have long been identified, but their positioning has a few questions. One of those was answered today with the announcement that Ivan Rodriguez will bat 8th. Does that make sense for the Tigers, or does it even matter. We’ll turn to the lineup optimizer to see what we can find out.

If you go with the theory that the team’s worst hitter should bat 9th (and it’s not really a strongly contested theory), then it would seem Pudge should bat 9th. He’s the best bet on the team to post a sub .300 OBP, and therefore the team’s most prolific out maker. But there is also the issue of the fact that Rodriguez is a Hall of Famer and a very proud player.

Using Pinto’s lineup tool, I plugged in the PECOTA weighted mean projections for each of the regulars in the Tigers lineup. I assumed Jones as the left fielder, even though Thames will get his share of at-bats in a platoon. Rodriguez was commonly slotted in the 8th spot in the optimal lineups which would score about 5.3 runs per game. So maybe Leyland is a fan of the tool as well? As an aside the RPG number is less than some earlier forecasts, as PECOTA isn’t as big a fan of the Tigers lineup as some other systems.

We know that Granderson, Polanco, and Ordonez will assume their same spots in the order. We also know that Carlos Guillen will bat 6th. That leaves Cabrera and Sheffield to bat either 3rd or 5th and Renteria and Jones to fill out the 7th and 9th spots. I played with each combination and the results are below.

2008lineups.JPG

Essentially it makes very little difference how those remaining spots shake out. That’s not to say there aren’t some things Leyland is likely considering. With Pudge batting 8th, it means that he’ll have back to back left handers in either the 6-7 positions for 9-1 positions. My guess is that Jones bats 7th because Carlos Guillen’s ability to switch hit will prevent an opposing manager from doubling up with a left hand reliever. Plus Leyland frequently batted Guillen and Casey back to back last year. Conversely, Marcus Thames coming off the bench could provide such a deterrent in a 9-1 scenario as well.

As for Cabrera and Sheffield, Henning thinks that Shef will get the 3 spot. My inclination is to think Cabrera should get it, for the simple reason he’s a safer bet to put up the better numbers.

Aside from the lefty-righty staggering, the most important thing is to keep everyone happy. I know it’s foreign for a stat-guy like myself to advocate those “softer” human issues. However, given that there is so little difference in expected output, shiny happy productive players will help to insure that the most comes from the lineup.

2008 Season, Defense, Spring Training

Color me surprised, Tigers like Cabrera’s glove

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credit Roger DeWitt

I’d consider this the first bit of surprising news coming out of camp, but the Tigers are impressed with Miguel Cabrera defensively at third has had me a little nervous since the trade was made. A rotation with three southpaws, two of which are extreme ground balls pitchers, means that third base becomes very important. Whether or not this is spring-training optimism talking remains to be seen (Jose Macias was dubbed a gold glove centerfielder by Randy Smith one spring).

Defensive metrics have been quite unified when assessing Cabrera’s defense. It’s not that just that he rates poorly, it’s that he rates as one of the worst at this position.

His struggles had been largely blamed on his weight gain, which became most problematic last year. It’s been widely reported he has arrived to camp in great shape having lost that extra weight. But he rated at -14 runs per 150 games using UZR in 2006 as well. In 2005 when he was primarily a left fielder, he rated as -21 runs according to UZR. So his defensive struggles probably weren’t only the result of his weight.

Moving beyond the weight though the Tigers have been very impressed with his soft hands and are now thinking his defense could be a plus.

“We haven’t worked anyone hard yet as far as movement,” said manager Jim Leyland, “but I can see he has very good hands, soft hands. (Infield coach Rafael Belliard) has looked at tape after tape of him and has said to me that he has a chance to be real good.”Tigers love Cabrera’s glove

It raises an interesting question as to what extent the Tigers can “coach him up.” He apparently as the hands, and his arm strength has long been well regarded rating a 70 in the fans scouting report. Are the tools there to turn him into a defensive force? Can Rafael Belliard help him with positioning and throwing accuracy? I’m still skeptical, but also encouraged.

2008 Season, Spring Training

The gang’s all here

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Full squad workouts are now underway.  Before you know it we’ll have the first pitch of the Florida Southern game.  But for now, here’s a summary of the day’s stories out of Lakeland:


credit Roger DeWitt

Helter Skelton

Catcher James Skelton has been on my radar for a little while now as really the only catcher prospect in the system. The only thing is his prospect status is diminished because of his diminutive stature according to many. Take 75 North is also a fan and was happy to see a Jason Beck profile of Skelton.

It’s all about the hair


credit Roger DeWitt

First base prospect Jeff Larish reported to spring training with Ordonez-esque flowing locks. Leyland quipped

“The hair looks better when they hit it over the fence.”

Speaking of Magglio he spoke to reporters and talked about his batting title season, wanting to be part of a championship team, and that he’s basically ignoring Jose Canseco.

Other stuff

[Mlive] Leyland: Don’t call us team to beat. Skip says it’s Cleveland’s division until someone takes it from them.
[DetNews] Rodney’s tuneful ways are weird, but wonderful. Fernando the free spirit.

Statistics

Consistency is good

Lee Panas at Detroit Tiger Tales consistently produces interesting analysis.  Now he’s working on a study about consistency.  Fans love guys who they perceive as consistent performers, and tend to get infuriated with streak hitters (at least during the cold streaks).  It turns out that the fans are on to something as Lee found that consistent players have better results. 

But…there’s always a but.

He also found in his study, which is admittedly limited in that it looks at just 2006 and 2007 at this point, that consistency wasn’t particularly repeatable.

So, it does look as if performance is tied to consistency even though consistency is not repeatable from year to year. That is, consistency describes something about a player’s season more than it describes a player. If a player has an inconsistent season by the consistency statistic, that might be an indicator that he was injured or had some unusually bad luck which prevented him from hitting his best all year long. It also might mean that he’s a candidate to improve in the following season.

I encourage you to click through and read more about his methodology.

Tiger Tales: A Detroit Tigers Blog

2008 Season, Roster Management, Spring Training

He looks good, he’s happy, and other reports from spring training

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Imagine if the players turned the tables on the beat writers during spring training and wrote stories about the beat writers.

“The official reporting date wasn’t until the 14th, but he was down here a couple weeks ago getting ready.”

“You can tell he was really working out this offseason. His vocabulary has grown as much as his forearms. Both are the product of intensive typing.”

“He’s excited to be down here. You can hear it in his voice when he talks about how excited he is to get to work.”

“As the new guy on the beat, he’s still trying to get a feel for his fellow media members, but he seems to be fitting in great.”

“As a 6 year veteran, and the only remaining beat writer from that awful 2003 team, it’s clear that he’s a leader in and out of the locker room and the other guys look to him for cues.”

“He’s excited to try out the new language he was working on over the winter. By adding Spanish to his repertoire he should really have an advantage over the competition. If he can gain confidence in it, it could be what he needs to push him from beat writer to elite columnist.”

I kid of course, especially on a day when there is so much news coming out of camp.
Continue reading He looks good, he’s happy, and other reports from spring training →

Links

links for 2008-02-19

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2007 Season, Pitching, Research

Scouting Bonderman with pitch f/x

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Jim Leyland has come out on several occasions and said that Jeremy Bonderman is one of the keys to any success the Tigers might enjoy in 2008. Bonderman’s second half swoon, which I attribute largely to his elbow pain that he finally fessed up to, clouded what was starting out to be a phenomenal season. An ERA of 8.50 over his last 9 starts, combined with the arm troubles meant that Bonderman finished with the highest ERA and lowest innings total since his rookie season. Like with Dontrelle Willis, we’ll delve into the pitch f/x data and see what we can find out about the veteran 25 year old pitcher.
Continue reading Scouting Bonderman with pitch f/x →

2008 Season, Spring Training

Men in uniforms

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Brandon Inge on first day of Spring Training
credit Roger DeWitt

The first day of official workouts. Now we’re rolling.

Link round up

Catching up with Inge – Detroit Tigers Insider – MLive.com
A TALE OF TWO CATCHERS
Jim Leyland addresses Brandon Inge’s future with Tigers
Leyland isn’t concerned about lineup, is concerned about bullpen
The Official Site of The Detroit Tigers: News: Notes: Porcello gets first taste

Inge on Inge and Leyland on Inge

In an effort to move things along and avoid having everyone answer the same questions over and over again, Jim Leyland and Brandon Inge held a mini-presser. The main message wasn’t anything new. Everybody wants Inge to be traded. It may or may not happen. Inge just wants to start and he won’t be a cancer. Leyland also stated that Vance Wilson’s progress wouldn’t be a factor in Inge being moved.

The most interesting quote though came from the Freep article.

“I went to work on my swing this off-season,” Inge said. “My swing was a little long. Cutting down strikeouts is crucial.”

Glad to hear some self awareness.

Remember when PFP was a big deal?

Rick Porcello and Bobby Seay

In non-Inge news the Tigers have some pitchers in camp as well. The first day of workouts means PFP, which was a circus last year.

Rick Porcello was put into Kenny Rogers pitchers-fielding-practice group, and it probably wasn’t by accident. Porcello marveled at Rogers, then again Porcello was probably marveling at quite a bit. He’s not even a full year removed from high school. Most of his friends are making spring break plans while Porcello went south to work out with a major league club.

The bullpen

Leyland is concerned about the bullpen and realizes how important talent evaluation will be this spring

“We have to do a better job than ever of projecting what a guy is going to do (in the regular season). We have to find out everything we can about their personalities and their understanding of what is going on.”

While normally there is quite a bit of flexibility in making some of these bullpen decisions, the option status of many of the candidates means that at least one player will be cut loose. And nobody wants to see the wrong guy jettisoned.

One of those guys in contention, Francisco Cruceta is a late arrival. He’s having visa issues getting into the country.

2008 Season, Injuries, Spring Training

Spring Training day .5 round-up

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Dontrelle arrives at Lakeland
credit Roger DeWitt

While today was officially “Pitchers and Catchers report” day, it was just that. Reporting day. The official workouts don’t begin until tomorrow. Still, the players and beat writers are all in town so the stream of news has started to flow.

The links to the stories are below with my comments to follow:

Beck’s Blog: Happy Reporting Day
Det News: Leyland – Strong possibility Inge will get traded
Det News: Tigers catchers Wilson aims for mid-March return

Opening Day starter

It’s the first-ish day of spring training so of course it is time to find out who the Opening Day starter will be. Leyland is leaning towards Justin Verlander which really is who it has to be isn’t? I don’t think there’s much mystery that the rotation will be Verlander-Rogers-Bonderman-Willis-Robertson. Rogers will be sandwiched between the two righties and Willis and Robertson will fill out the 4 and 5 spots.
Continue reading Spring Training day .5 round-up →

Links

links for 2008-02-13

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2008 Season, Roster Management

Why Ramon Santiago

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I don’t get it. It seems as if Ramon Santiago is a lock to make the roster but I can’t figure out a good reason why. Lynn Henning said that Santiago’s job is the safest of the bench candidates. Danny Knobler also has Santiago slotted into the bench as an automatic. But should it be a given? Shouldn’t Santiago’s spot be tenuous at best?

I don’t enjoy writing these types of posts. The posts where I spend a few hundred words talking about why a player shouldn’t be with the team. I’m the type who is usually rooting for people, and this is the opposite of my normal tone. But Santiago simply shouldn’t have a guaranteed job on a club of this caliber.

I’ve already looked at the roster crunch and when I drew up my bench it was pretty easy to leave Santiago in Toledo. The Tigers have a back up shortstop in Carlos Guillen, who would be perfectly fine there on a limited basis. They have a back-up second baseman in Ryan Raburn. They have a back up third baseman in Brandon Inge. Aside from designated sacrifice bunting duties I fail to see what Santiago brings to the table.

He is often referred to as a defensive whiz, and admittedly he does look silky smooth in the field with a plus arm. But looking at advanced defensive metrics like Ultimate Zone Rating, Santiago rates fairly poor. From 2003 to the All Star break last season Santiago was -23 runs per 150 games at second base and -28 runs per 150 games at shortstop. The data is far from conclusive because of Santiago’s limited playing time. Still, this is aggregated over several season so it can be dismissed either.

Offensively Santiago brings little other than the aforementioned bunting ability and some speed as a pinch runner. For his career Santiago is a 231/294/306 hitter which is good for an OPS+ of 63. For those unfamiliar with OPS+, 100 is an average player. Inge, who’s offensive struggles have been well documented is an 85 OPS+ for his career.

The role he would play on the team would be as a sub and defensive replacement. The are more capable subs already on the roster, and as a defensive replacement who would he be replacing. He wouldn’t go in for Polanco, and I don’t see him usurping Edgar Renteria in the late innings. And in the even rarer case where Miguel Cabrera is lifted in the late innings that spot has to go to Brandon Inge.

The biggest reason for keeping Santiago is that he is out of options. However, Santiago has passed through waivers on several occasions and I don’t see any reason why he wouldn’t make it through again. I’m generally in favor of hording talent and playing the options game when everything else is equal (see Zach Miner getting the short option straw), but everything else isn’t equal this time. Ryan Raburn is the far superior player. His arm matches Santiago’s, and while he can’t play shortstop he still offers Leyland flexibility. And while I don’t expect Raburn to repeat his 304/340/507 line from last year, I think league average production is a reasonable assumption.

I know that Jim Leyland likes Santiago, but that hasn’t assured him a spot on the roster in the past. Santiago didn’t break camp with the team last year when Leyland chose the beleaguered Neifi Perez and Omar Infante in the spring. Even when Perez was suspended, it was Raburn who was promoted and not Santiago. Santiago didn’t get his call until late August when Guillen’s knees just couldn’t take shortstop on a daily basis. Santiago was also sent to Toledo in 2006. While Leyland may like Santiago, I don’t know that he likes him enough to hand him a spot when there are such clear upgrades available.

A trade of Marcus Thames or Brandon Inge would certainly open up a roster spot, but I’d view both moves as unlikely. Vance Wilson not being ready could also clear a spot, at least initially. But it wouldn’t shock me to see the Tigers actually take a 13th pitcher in that case due to the roster crunch in the pen, an area that is much more tenuous for the team than middle infield.

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