Category: Game Post

20-14, 1st place, 1 game up on Cleveland. Hypotenuse game of the series coming up, and it will be for all the marbles. Or at least half of them.

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Get Al Alburquerque out of Detroit. At least for a while. Please. This has gone on long enough. Game 34 was Tigers 6, Indians 4, Tigers Bullpen -3.* The bullpen pooped the bed yet again. What is that – 10 times this season already? Take away the walk-offs – it happens – and it’s still 7 times. (I think. I’ll check it out.) Rather a lot for a team with 14 losses.

* I’m conveniently leaving the Indians pen out of it.

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Danny Worth has been out with a heel contusion for a while, but is close to rejoining the Mud Hens. This is good. We’d all like to see him raise that batting average down there. Along with Quintin Berry. Makes you wonder what’s happened to them. Devastated by not making the big club out of camp? The International League is a pitcher’s league, true, but the numbers on these guys… yikes. Up and down the Toledo roster, the batting numbers are pretty frightening. Only 1B Jordan Lennerton has put up anything halfway decent.

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Even though the Tigers fell short last night, you’ve got to be encouraged by rally after rally in the late innings. 7th, 8th, 9th – they just kept coming. And speaking of encouragement, the good signs for Alex Avila keep coming every now and again. On what looked to be an effortless swing the first time up, he sent a fly to deep CF that chased Michael Bourn back and back and back.

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OK, excluding the walk-off loses, I count (7) games so far where the bullpen has either lost the game outright (1), blown up (3), or let the score slip out of reach (3). While we’re playing the blame game for losses, let’s assign (2) to starting pitching and give the batters (5) (which will include the 3 walk-offs, all in low-scoring games). Come to the bullpen’s defense, someone. I’m sure there is something positive to say. I feel more like being negative after being disappointed by Smyly and Al-Al (and all the more disappointed given the low pressure nature of their latest assignment).

Tigers pitching in the Late/Close split (includes some but not much starting pitching): 11th in the AL in ERA, 10th in BAA, 9th in WHIP. Tied for 2nd (worst) in runs allowed.

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What’s up with Austin Jackson? All the good numbers are going down down down over his last 19 starts (though he still manages to score runs). But there has been some hitting anemia going on in that leadoff spot. It’s not good. While Victor Martinez has actually been worse over that same stretch (that’s right – you have to consider that he’s “coming around” only by comparison to an especially horrid start), AJax’s fade has been more damaging to the team.

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Let us take a moment to recognize the main reason Detroit has won 20 and could “easily” be 25-9 right now, and to congratulate the contributors: The starting rotation. Only 2 stinkers in 34 games. 17-9 with a 3.27 (AL best) ERA, and also the fewest runs overall allowed. Only 11 HR allowed (AL best). Tops in K/9, 3rd best in walks allowed. 2nd in WHIP, and 6th in BAA. Is that wow good? I’m saying it is.

Rick “The Outlier” Porcello takes the mound today, with (individual, positive sense) regression to the mean on his and our side.

POST-GAME: INDIANS 4, TIGERS 3 (10 INNINGS). Quality starts for Rick Porcello and Zach McAllister, but hardly easy going. An exciting one, but also a heartbreaker of a giveaway. The bullpen blows another one, right? Yes and no… maybe. Each team paid for costly mistakes early. 3rd inning, Torii Hunter, yet again, overthrew the cutoff man (and the throw was wide of 3B besides) to allow Michael Brantley to take 2B on a single. Brantley scores as a result. 4th inning, Lonnie Chisenhall’s throwing error on a routine play leads to an Omar Infante sac fly and a Tigers 3-2 lead. Then it became a contest in stranded runners and failed rallies. McAllister, incredibly, with bases loaded and 1 out, retires Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder easily. Porcello gets Asdrubal Cabrera to ground into a bases-loaded, inning-ending 4-6-3 (very sharp play by Infante). Phil Coke gets Brantley to ground into a 2 men on, inning-ending 4-6-3. But then came the 9th, when “closer” Jose Valverde reminded us how things can go when you’ve got nothing but a fastball and can’t locate it, and Darin Downs reminded us that he’s not a shutdown guy, and meanwhile the bats have nodded off completely. Valverde walking Michael Bourn (same as a double, essentially) to lead off the 9th was where the game went irretrievably south. Yes, make no mistake – this one was on the bullpen. No shortage of clutch failure, though, spotlight on Miggy and Prince. Victor Martinez looked absolutely sickly at the plate. Let it be known that Miggy committed 2 more errorless errors at 3B. Best play of the game was Jhonny Peralta to Brayan Pena to gun down Asdrubal at the plate in the 10th. Two outs, no runs in! That should have turned the tide. The pinch-hitting by Mark Reynolds and Bourn won the game for Terry Francona and Cleveland. Meanwhile, Ryan Raburn was 0 for 2 but made a very nice play in RF and another great effort there, more than can be said for Hunter today.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Mark Reynolds, Michael Brantley, Michael Bourn
HONORABLE MENTION: Rick Porcello, Zach McAllister, Brayan Pena, Yan Gomes, Joe Smith, Phil Coke, Omar Infante
NOT SO GOOD: Jose Valverde, Darin Downs, Victor Martinez, Prince Fielder

20-13, in first place by 1.5 games.

Is this the first Saturday night game of the year? Seems like it.

Phil Coke has been activated, and Luke Putkonen has been optioned back to Toledo. I was thinking Alburquerque was next in line for Toledo, but instead the Tigers may opt for the ever-popular retroactively injured thing next time he struggles with his control.

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Some of my favorite “newfangled” baseball stats are WPA (win probability added) and RE24 (base-out runs or runs saved). They’re all over the place here, and I especially like to look at them in player game logs, the box scores, and the full play-by-plays (scrolling down in the box scores). If you don’t know what they are and mean, well, check it out. You’ll figure it out.

I’m not much for WAR. To me, it’s a fantasy baseball stat, though I’m aware that GMs and agents playing the real-life version of fantasy baseball actually use it. The thing I love about WPA is that it allows you to look at contributions to wins/losses on a PA/BF by PA/BF (plate appearance/batter faced) or game to game basis. It gives you about the most objective “game score” for a player that I can imagine. RE24 is a kind of productivity score along these same lines, though not one tied to win/loss probability based on before/after game situation. WPA and RE24 can be looked at in the aggregate like any other stat, of course, but then you have to consider adjustments for opportunity, same as you would when comparing HR or RBI totals between batters with different numbers of PA. I find them useful in any event, but most interesting as ways to gauge performance in individual games or plays within games. The only drawback I find is that they cannot really account for many significant positive defensive plays, though I suppose you could invent some tweaks to introduce defense as more of a factor. (The difficulty is mainly that it’s hard to quantify “what if?” situations.) So it’s mostly a batter/pitcher kinda thing, the defense being an assumption.

I keep meaning to post some interesting analyses that utilize WPA and RE24, like this one for 2013 Tigers hitters through 32 games, for instance:

WIN CONTRIBUTION PER PLAY (SCORE)

CABRERA +955
FIELDER +512
TUIASOSOPO +487
HUNTER +435
JACKSON +185
KELLY 0
PERALTA -073
INFANTE -167
AVILA -297
DIRKS -306
MARTINEZ -606
SANTIAGO -1481
PENA -1500

PRODUCTIVITY PER PLAY (SCORE)

TUIASOSOPO +188
CABRERA +138
FIELDER +102
HUNTER +65
JACKSON +19
PERALTA +12
INFANTE -13
DIRKS -16
KELLY -58
MARTINEZ -67
AVILA -95
PENA -130
SANTIAGO -178

But each time I try, I collapse under the sheer weight of it all. I doubt that I’ll ever have time in between games to work up the kind of comprehensive yet approachable overview I aspire to. The fun thing about it is that hidden truths are revealed, some of them contrary to what the more visible aggregate stats are telling you. Such as, to simplify greatly: Don Kelly isn’t really “crap,” comparatively speaking (I’m looking at you, VMart), and Doug Fister hasn’t been as good as you might think. Also, looking back on a box score and scrolling down to the “Top 5 Plays,” you may discover that “oh yeah, that was kinda cool” was actually the most significant play of the game in terms of WPA. All in all, it just gives you a broader view of where the positive and negative contributions are coming from. The cool thing about RE24 in a box score is that one number summarizes the productive sum total of every PA or BF. All “1 IP, 0 ER” and “0 for 3″ and”1 for 4” are not created equally.

So check it out.

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Tonight’s “Victor Martinez is available to pinch hit for Victor Martinez” lineups:

DETROIT – It’s the A-team again, behind JV, no less

CLEVELAND – Raburn-less again, go figure

CF Bourn
2B Kipnis
SS A. Cabrera
RF Nick Swisher
C Carlos Santana
DH Giambi
1B Reynolds
LF Brantley
3B Chisenhall

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It appears from the latest forecast, which I seldom interpret correctly, that there may be a rain delay and/or rain early in tonight’s game.

POST-GAME: INDIANS 7, TIGERS 6. Cleveland was hitting Verlander’s fastball at will from the get-go, and Jimenez was just too good. You could see this one going down the tubes on 2 plays: a) Tigers 4th, Miggy and Fielder on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out… Martinez grounds out to 1B, no chance for a score, and then Dirks strikes out way too easily; b) Indians 5th, what starts as a great play by Fielder to step on 1B and then double up Swisher in a rundown ends with Swisher (who soon scores) at 2B on a ridiculous throwing error by Miggy. Then Smyly and Albuquerque crap out, score going from 4-1 to 6-1 Indians. All over, right? NO! VMart starts a sweet 4-run rally that includes a couple good PH at-bats from Tuiasosopo and Pena. Then… the sickening Al-Al lets in an 8th inning Indians insurance run before Downs saves the day with bases loaded. Tigers 8th, and things are cooking until Tuiasosopo grounds into a 2-on, inning-ending DP. With Perez in for the Tribe in the 9th, it’s not looking good until a Swisher error puts Pena on 1B with one out. Hunter delivers a 2-out RBI to make it 7-6 Indians, and suddenly the win seems not only possible, but likely. Because MIGGY is at the plate with men on 1st and 2nd. A truly lousy swing and miss on pitch 2 turns this into a crap AB, and his weak grounder to the left side overtakes the Tuiasosopo GIDP as the big plate failure of the game (Tuiasosopo actually had a pretty decent AB overall there). No joy in Mudville. Very exciting game, though. Kipnis’s incredible play for the force at 2B and the second out in the 9th on the Jackson almost-single up the middle was the game-saver for the Indians.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Kipnis
HONORABLE MENTION: Darin Downs, A. Cabrera, Michael Bourn, Victor Martinez, Omar Infante
NOT SO GOOD: Al Alburquerque, Indians bullpen, Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Andy Dirks

Were you disappointed by the short series against the Nationals? I sure was. Sweep the Astros, fall flat against the Washington National Angels (can’t they beat teams that wear red?)…what does that spell? It spells O-V-E-R-R-A-T-E-D. Until the next bout of euphoria, anyway.

The recently somewhat deflated and first place by a nose Detroit Tigers (19-13) return home following a 4-2 road trip to take on the red-hot Cleveland Indians (18-14) in a three-game series.

Friday, May 10, 7:08 PM ET: RHP Corey Kluber vs. RHP Max Scherzer

Saturday, May 11, 7:08 PM ET: RHP Ubaldo Jimenez vs. RHP Justin Verlander

Sunday, May 12, 1:08 PM ET: RHP Zach McAllister vs. RHP Rick Porcello

WEATHER: I’m sorry I didn’t get this up right away as I’d intended. Rain could be a factor Friday and Saturday evenings, and even on Sunday. Game time conditions are, in any event, not likely to be pleasant tonight and on Sunday. Winds will be getting stronger over the course of the weekend, and Sunday is going to feel like early April.

This is the first real divisional showdown of the young season, which kind of makes you wish Kevin Verlander in Dallas (7-3) or Coleman Scherzer (8-5) was on the game post mound, but Smoking Rick Loon (4-5) will give it his best shot. Cleveland is only a game behind the Tigers at this point and it’s really no fluke, but on the other hand, their recent history is to start strong (18-14 in 2012, 20-12 in 2011) before eventually fading with a vengeance. Sweeping them out of town could put them out of sight for a bit, but not out of mind. Recall that they were an early pain last season – the Indians took the first 5 games. And 10 of 18 overall.

Anyway, we Tigers fans find ourselves in an odd position for the month of May: No positional controversies. Aside from a bit of bullpen sorting out that remains to be done, the pieces are largely in place. For once, the focus is on execution on the field. That’s refreshing. And, by and large, with a 19-13 record to back it up, the Tigers are getting it done. It took Detroit 96 games (and the departed Jacob Turner’s first MLB win) to get to 8 games over .500 in 2012; it took 30 games this year, shaky bullpen and all.

KLUBER v SCHERZER: Current Tigers have done rather poorly against Kluber in a small-sample 44 PA. (BENCH ALERT: Kelly could start in place of Dirks. Actually, this could be the day to “rest” Cabrera as the DH and start Tuiasosopo at 3B. But 3 days off in a row for Victor? OK. maybe not.) Last time Kluber pitched at Comerica was September 3, 2012; he held the Tigers down and outdueled Anibal Sanchez for the win. Current Indians are at a disadvantage vs. Scherzer, with a .664 OPS in 134 PA. Last time out against Cleveland at Comerica (August 5, 2012), though, they hit him hard, and he only lasted 5 innings. Prediction: Runs will score in this one, most of them for Detroit. I cannot guarantee that the bullpen will hold onto the lead.

JIMENEZ v VERLANDER: Everything about Jimenez’s considerable history against the Tigers and current Tigers and at Comerica says Detroit has his number. (BENCH ALERT: Outside chance of a Pena start.) In 232 PA, current Indians are no more successful vs. Verlander than anyone else is. Michael Brantley’s numbers are so good that we can expect JV to hang a golden sombrero on him. (Any and all predictions I make from here on out on these matchups will be of the stray from the norm/regress to the mean variety. These predictions are silly, and I should really give them up.) Justin did not face the Indians at home in 2012. Prediction: Pitching duel.

McALLISTER v PORCELLO:  52 PA is not much history for current Tigers against McAllister, but Austin Jackson might be looking forward to it. (BENCH ALERT: Santiago could get the call, not that I advocate resting Peralta or Infante at home.) McAllister faced the Tigers twice at Comerica in 2012, pitching fairly well in both Cleveland wins. Current Indians have Porcello’s number in 159 PA. 7 HR in there, too. Porcello’s last time out against the Indians at Comerica (September 4, 2012) was your typical OK/living on the edge outing for Rick, winnable but for a little more run support. Prediction: Porcello doesn’t go more than 5, but the Tigers put such a beat-down on McAllister and even the Indians bullpen that it doesn’t matter.

The Indians lead the AL in HR, paced by Mark Reynolds and Carlos Santana, and are one of the top 3 in hitting overall. Best on the road, incidentally. CF Michael Bourn will be returning to the lineup for the series as well. The fair-to-middlin’ starting pitching has exceeded all expectations, and their 4th-best BAA of .238 compares favorably to Detroit’s .249. Their bullpen is top-tier and arguably what the Tigers might have the most cause to fear. Scoring early is recommended. At least the Tigers won’t have to face Vinnie Pestano this time (out with injury). Actually, Pestano and Chris Perez are the only guys with frightening stats against current non-Cabrera Tigers. So why am I thinking Cleveland’s bullpen has been such a pain?

It might be more pertinent to consider how the Tigers bullpen matches up against current Indians. Detroit heads into the first game with everyone in the pen available except (probably) Smyly and Benoit. Let’s see… Nick Swisher is hard on Valverde. Benoit, gets hit by A. Cabrera and Swisher. Not enough PA for the other guys, unless Coke comes back… OK, Coke shouldn’t really pitch against the Indians.

The ever-controversial (for us) Ryan Raburn, recent AL Player of the Week, makes his unexpectedly triumphant return to Detroit as a Cleveland Indian. I expect every AB, every pitch, every play in the field, to be seen as vindication of opinions for and against him. In reality, there’s no bad blood or “extra incentive” at play here, of course. Raburn was well-liked on the team and has earned Rod Allen’s seal of approval as a “good dude,” and I believe everything Rod Allen says. So I hope the fans at Comerica are nice about it. I also hope that Raburn goes 0 for whatever and commits as many errors as possible. Good dude and all. With Bourn back in CF, it remains to be seen how much we’ll see of Raburn. Some, surely.

Tonight’s “Doug Fister is available to pinch hit for Alex Avila” lineups:

DETROIT

The usual “A-team” lineup you know by heart

CLEVELAND

CF Bourn
2B Kipnis
SS A. Cabrera
DH Swisher
C Santana
1B Reynolds
LF Brantley
RF Stubbs
3B Chisenhall

POST-GAME: Tigers 10, Indians 4. Max seemed quite hittable at first, but that didn’t last, aside from the new prospective Tiger-killer candidate Nick Swisher. Still, I can see Scherzer winning 20 games this year with a +4.00 ERA. Kluber was hittable right away, and it was only a matter of time. Prince’s first-pitch bomb in the bottom of the 3rd was the exclamation point on that, and Miggy’s 3-run shot in the 4th put this one away. If there was a turning point, it might have been the Tigers not getting doubled off from 1B on two early IF line drives. Torii Hunter had the unusual experience of canceling his own RBI by getting tagged out at 1B on a single in the 2nd inning – big heads-up play by cutoff man Mark Reynolds at 1B. That changed 4-1 to 3-1 and ended what could have been a devastating inning; this could have been bigger than it turned out to be. Hunter also played a part in another (shallow RF) gaffe scored as a hit; on Hunter, not Infante, as I saw it. And then there was the Swisher RF double turned triple…

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Max Scherzer, Miguel Cabrera
HONORABLE MENTION: Nick Swisher, Alex Avila, Omar Infante, Jhonny Peralta
NOT SO GOOD: Corey Kluber, Torii Hunter, Michael Bourn

Detroit Tigers, 19-12, 1st Place (1.5 ahead of KC).

This afterevening the Tigers make up their rained out game from Tuesday, as they play the plasticine game in the two-game season series against the Washington Nationals.

I predict that the Nationals will strike early, and score maybe three runs in the first.  The play here I think is long, drawn out at bats and long breaks in-between pitches, and hope the rain hits before the 5th inning.

The Tigers only win 34% of their rain-delayed and rain-makeup games, so the odds are stacked against them. (OK, I made that up. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it were true. I haven’t figured out a way to look it up).

Many have touted this series as a World Series preview. I hope not;  I’ve already seen that one, it’s called last year’s World Series.

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Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Doug Fister. With the Tiger bats in slumber mode, Fister has a small margin of error. Perhaps he can even help with the bat. And if he is going to continue with his strange HBP proclivity, he might as well use one against Denard Span.

Today’s Makeup Game Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, Rf
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Dirks, LF
6. Peralta, SS
7. Avila, C
8. Infante, 2B
9. Fister, P

 

19-11, 1st place, 1.5 games up.

Well, this has been a fun stretch. Your Tigers have now won 9 out of 10 games, outscoring their opponents 74-25 (that’s a pythagorean winning % of 89%, or about 143 – 19). Now, the last 7 games were played against the Astros and Twins, so let’s no be disappointed if they don’t score 5 in the first every game here on out. But the Tigers did what good teams are supposed to do against bad ones.

Though it’s only a two game set, this series against the Nationals will be closely watched around the bigs, as both the Tigers and Nationals were heavy pre-season World Series favorites. No Strasburger v. Verlander matchup, but tonight’s duel could be equally as exciting.

Sanchez has been phenomenal out of the gates this year, posting a 1.06 WHIP and 50 Ks in 39 2/3. That’s right, 50! Even more exciting is the fact that Sanchez has never lost to Washington. That’s not a fluke – in 19 career starts he’s 8-0 with a 1.97 ERA against Washington. Hates to face: Desmond (8-25) and Ramos (5-13). Loves to face Benadina (2-20), Laroche (6-30) and Werth (5-30, but he’s out tonight).

Sanchez will be opposed by hard-throwing right Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann has a good fastball that can touch 96-97, and great control. In four of his 6 starts this year he’s walked 1 or less, going at least 7 in each of those games. Zimmerman has been strong this year, posting a 5-1 record with a .75 WHIP and 1.64 ERA. He does have 1 HR hitting this year. Only 3 tigers have seen Zimmermann – and only Infante (3-14) has more than 3 AB.

The Nationals are 0-6 all-time v. the Tigers, the only team they are winless against.

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A few notes:

– Type in “Whitaker” (or something similar) here: http://scouts.baseballhall.org/. Have fun.

– The Tigers staff is currently posting a K/9 of 9.91. That’s a full K higher than the modern record of 8.68/9 established by Mil last year.

– Josh Hamilton is arguably the worst hitter in baseball right now. TSE – care to comment on how wise that $125M was spent by LAA?

– Rick Ankiel is available.

– Good article on ESPN on why today is the golden age of leadoff hitters.

– Ryan Raburn beat out the following players for player of the week: Cabrera, Fielder, Scherzer, Verlander.

– Sparky’s wife, Carol, passed last night. May she rest in peace and thank you for Sparky & Co.

Remember – NL park so VMart on the bench and 1 free out ever 8 batters.

Today’s lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, DH
5. Dirks, LF
6. Peralta, SS
7. Avila, C
8. Infante, 2B
9. Sanchez, P

Detroit Tigers, 18-11, 1st Place (.5 ahead of KC).

The Tigers have their bags packed, and prepare to leave Houston a bit reluctantly, one imagines, after their party of a game last night and a 3-for-3 start to the series.  After leaving the strangely-named Minute Maid Park (there is not a tiny maid anywhere in sight), the Tigers have a two-game howdy of a series in Washington, and then back to Detroit to play three with Cleveland, and then…more Astros!

One interesting (if trivial) aspect of the new Interleague play schedule: pitchers, of course, have to bat in National League parks since the play is by National League rules there, with no Designated Hitter.  Since there are at most three consecutive games in National League parks under the new scheduling,  theoretically a pitcher could manage to make it through the season without ever having to bat.  Mr. Justin “Hitless” Verlander is off the hook for the Washington series. The next away Interleague games are May 28-29 in Pittsburgh, and Verlander’s schedule should get him out of that one also.

At any rate, Verlander does climb the hill this afternoon for the asphalt game of the series, broom in hand. His counterpart will be Philip Umber, who with an 0-6 start has a shot at the coveted Maroth Award this season.

*****

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Miguel Cabrera. I was going to say Alex Avila, since he had a 2nd consecutive good day at the plate, which is a bigger deal for the Tigers’ season than a shellacking of the Astros is. But today he rests. Cabrera has 2 home runs in 6 at bats against Umber

Today’s B-Team (Broom-Team?) Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Dirks, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Kelly, RF
7. Pena, C
8. Infante, 2B
9. Santiago, SS

Again it didn’t come easy, but the Tigers are right where they wanted to be, taking the first two games of the four-game series with the struggling Astros, thanks partly to contributions by the slumping Alex Avila and by everyone’s favorite bench donkey, Don Kelly (his working a 1-2 count into a walk ahead of Avila’s home run was one of the subtle plays of the game).

Tonight should be where the strikeout-happy Tiger staff meets the strikeout-happy Houston batters, as Max Scherzer takes the mound in the creosote game of the series. Watch for an increased use of curveballs.

I’ll put the over/under at 12 Ks.

The Tigers face Lucas Harrell, who has been a bright spot for Houston this season, winning his last 3 consecutive starts–in fact his last 2 were the only Astro wins in the last 10 games. Harrell is a sinkerballer who has induced a ML-leading 10 DPs over the span of his last four starts. I predict at least one foolish-looking failed hit-and-run attempt. Cue the teeth-gnashing.

*****

Speaking of DPs, Today’s Poll:

Which Tiger is slowest at running from home to first?

• Alex Avila
• Victor Martinez
• Matt Tuiasosopo
• Other

*****

And don’t forget boys and girls, the Toledo Mud Hens will be celebrating Star Wars Weekend (today is May the Fourth Be With You Day, and tomorrow will be Revenge of the Fifth Day) by wearing so-called Chewbacca jerseys.

*****

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Austin Jackson. Look for a rested Jackson to make his mark at the plate, in the field, and on the base paths.

Today’s Let’s-Go-For-Three Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Dirks, LF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Avila, C
9. Infante, 2B

Surprisingly, last night turned out well, thanks mostly to a career performance by The Pride of Butler, PA, Don “The Donkey” Kelly.

As expected, the game turned into a strikeout duel, with Rick Porcello doing more than expected, and the Tiger hitters a little less so.

The key play of the game could have easily turned out to be Tuiasosopo being thrown at at home in the 11th.  I will go on the record as saying that the move by Brookens was absolutely the right one, usually: on the road, extra innings, 2 outs, the odds are in your favor to be aggressive and to send the runner home, every time. Think of it this way:  if the next hitter is a .200 hitter, the odds are 1 in 5 that the next batter will hit the runner in. The odds are much better that the defense will not throw the runner out.

On the other hand, you need to consider the variables. As in: Ankiel in RF, and Tuiasosopo on 3rd base. Tui might be a tad faster than Victor Martinez (who should never, ever again be sent home in anything other than a gimme situation). I like the aggressive approach of Brookens, but he needs to know when he is working against elite arms, armed with leadfoots.

OK, time for a new nickname: Tuiasoslopoke.

*****

Tonight Doug “The K” Fister faces a guy named “Bud.”

*****

If the game is sparsely attended tonight, you have to forgive the Houstonians. At 8-21, there is hardly joy in Mudville. And the real fans were all up late waiting out that extra-inning downer. And on top of all that, apparently the Main Event in town is a culture war.

*****

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Don Kelly. DK gets the rare start after his heroics last night.

Today’s No-Jack Lineup:

1. Dirks, LF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Kelly, CF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Avila, C
9. Infante, 2B

The Tigers travel to Houston to take on the newly-American-League Astros, who have so far been welcomed into the AL to the tune of a league-worst 8-20 record.

The probable pitchers for the series are:

• May 2 8:10  Porcello vs. Lyles
• May 3 8:10  Fister vs. Norris
• May 4 7:10  Scherzer vs. Harrell
• May 5 4:10  Verlander vs. Humber

If there is any good news for the beleaguered Astros it’s that they get to start out the series with Porcello, the one Tiger pitcher who is not putting up huge strikeout numbers. Houston has struck out a MLB-leading 276 times; the K-stros hitters meeting the Tiger pitchers should make for a perfect storm of strikeouts this weekend.

*****

Not surprisingly, Bruce Rondon was returned to Toledo, just in time to be fitted for his Chewbacca uniform, as the Mud Hens honor Star Wars Weekend. Why did no one tell me about this? It is far too late to get a decent costume now. Anyway Mud Hen players will hope that the increased attention the uniforms will give them will help in their Wookie-of-the-Year bids.

OK, I can’t help it, had to look up a picture of the things. Words fail me.

*****

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Jose Valverde. Finally another save situation arrives, and Valverde comes out especially animated against his former team.

Today’s Welcome to the AL Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Dirks, LF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Avila, C
9. Infante, 2B

15-10, in first place and leading K.C. by half a game still, and the win streak is at 5 games and counting. Anibal Sanchez got this thing rolling with a career outing against the Braves last Friday, and while we won’t see 17 strikeouts from him today, we might see a more subtle masterpiece here in his second 2013 outing vs. the Twins. Such as a no-hitter, for example. Just a suggestion.

I had the thought that the Tigers hitters might “let up” a bit when they had the lead. One gets that impression once in a while. So I checked it. Not true, and it’s easy to see why I shouldn’t have expected otherwise. Here’s a clue: The Tigers lead the AL in BA, and we don’t even have to look it up to know that the Tigers have spent the majority of their innings in the lead. So….

You might know this, but I just heard about it. Compared with 10 years ago, strikeouts in MLB are at a frequency where you might say we are in another era. Why is this? And what are the new parameters for judging a pitcher’s K/9? We are programmed to consider a strikeout per inning the baseline for being impressed. Do we need a new standard? I wonder the same things about other shifting stats: BA, HR, wins for pitchers. Is that .300 batting average thing as arbitrary as it seems? It seems we are now in an era where 20+ home runs should impress us as much as it did 40 years ago, are we not? And 20 wins as the threshold for greatness just seems completely out of line today. 15+ is more like it. Pitchers aren’t starting 40 games a year any more, and I would bet that no-decisions are more frequent than they used to be.

Your one-stop shop for some rapid perusal of the current state of Tigers minor league teams and players:

Toledo (7-20, last place; 18 of their games have been on the road so far)

Erie (12-11, first place)

Lakeland (11-14, tied for 4th of 5)

West Michigan (10-13, 5th of 8)

Some Tigers team stats AL rankings:

Hitting: Best in AVG and OBP, 3rd in OPS. Best hitters at home by a mile; nearly the worst on the road. Best two-strike hitters, again by a mile; decisively the worst at first-pitch hitting. Tops in hits, 3rd in walks, and 3rd fewest strikeouts. Among the elite with 2 outs, and 6th with RISP. Against LHP, 3rd best; RHP, 6th best. Considering who the slumpers and strugglers have been, this LHB line is no surprise: 227/317/363. Well, maybe a bit of a surprise. Hey – the Tigers are 6th best at staying out of the DP. There’s a surprise.

Starting rotation: Rivaled only by Texas and Boston, and Detroit starters have given up the fewest HR by far (7 in 156 IP!). (Side note: Doug Fister – the pitcher – is tied with the Yankees and Orioles – the entire rotations – for the AL lead in HBP.) Let me put this in perspective: If Tigers starting pitching totals were projected out to 34 GS, that stat line would win the Cy Young award handily. Mr. Tiger would trounce Mr. Red Sox and Mr. Ranger. That’s how good Tigers starters were in April. Phenomenal or close to it.

Bullpen: Well, you know, they’ve allowed 37 of Detroit’s 92 earned runs. 12th in WHIP, but 4th best in BAA. Tops in strikeouts, but also 2nd in walks. Tied for 2nd best in HR allowed. Oft-maligned but serviceable, and maybe getting better. The 1-5 W-L counts for something more than it would for starters, though. Gotta even that up.

Speaking of which… I have no confidence in Al Alburquerque. None. It’s Dejareal all over again. Did someone say “DL” or “Toledo”? I didn’t say that, but I thought I heard something there.

Miguel Cabrera makes some nifty plays at 3B sometimes. Great arm, of course. He has decent range in my view, and good reactions. Why is he a liability there… still? It’s his glove – literally. Glove control. It’s also a hands thing, ball transfer and such, and also, often, a judgment thing. He’s got the legs and the arm, but the hands…

Watching Pedro Florimon of the Twins, I thought, that guy’s swing reminds me of Don Kelly’s. Kelly has a nice-looking swing, in my opinion. Despite that, it’s obvious that it’s not a swing that’s ever going to get much done at the plate with any frequency. I can’t tell you why. I’m not a hitting coach or an amateur baseball genius. But it’s a nice-looking swing.

Andy Dirks and Victor Martinez are back. I don’t think it’s too early to declare this. On the other hand, I have just about resigned myself to a bad year at the plate from Alex Avila. No real signs of life. The occasional HR is not the same as what you saw with Martinez, which was good contact more and more frequently, well before the hits actually started to fall. I also think Jhonny Peralta is overachieving a bit, but he did that for an entire season not so long ago, so let it ride.

Kelly has been good in the outfield, but then so has Dirks. I’m hoping this Kelly as LF replacement late in games isn’t one of those auto-Leyland things. Because I think Dirks has an even nicer-looking swing than Kelly does.

Still wondering why Martinez was sent home to be thrown out last night. Did you see him rounding third? Maybe it’s just a traditional thing for games against the Twins,  or maybe Tom Brookens felt Dirks needed the RBI. He did, but he wasn’t going to get it with Martinez on second.

Maybe today Ramon gets the start at SS or 2B. Even though he’s better as a LHB. So maybe not. The real question is whether Matt Tuiasosopo gets the presumed start in LF. Matt is one of my guys, but I’d roll with Dirks today, roll with the hot hand. Will Leyland? I’m guessing… no.

On to the sweep. (Jinx, schminx.) Doesn’t have to be a blowout. I’ll take 7-0 Tigers.

POST-GAME: Twins 6, Tigers 2. They weren’t without their chances, but the Tigers were outplayed in all aspects of the game today. The game hung on 5 events, most before it floated out of reach courtesy of Rondon and Downs:

1. Twins 1st. Close to 40 pitches already, men on 1st and 2nd, Sanchez gives up a LF single to Parmalee. Tuiasosopo makes perfect throw to the plate that Pena a) is not positioned well on, and b) that Pena drops while turning to make the tag on Morneau he would have gotten.

2. Tigers 1st. Two men on, two outs, and Martinez gets under one for an easy flyball out to Hicks in CF.

3. Twins 2nd. Twins score their 3rd run on Carroll double that makes it to LF to Cabrera’s right. Don’t know whether to blame Cabrera or Sanchez or just give Carroll (and the running on pitch Florimon scoring from 1B) credit, but 3 will be enough.

4. Tigers 6th. The tide was turning, the score was 3-2, the Tigers had capitalized a mistake into one of those runs. Cabrera at 3B, 2 outs. Martinez scorches one that hooks foul down the LF line. Then hits a grounder to 2B in the RF grass that most any person with legs would have had an IF RBI-single on. It’s all over.

5. Tigers 9th. Cabrera at 2B, Fielder at 1B, no outs. This is what you call a rally when you’re down 6-2. Martinez hits the first pitch to Carroll at 3B for a 5-4-3 DP. This is what you call a dead rally.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Scott Diamond, Justin Morneau
HONORABLE MENTION: Pedro Florimon, Jamie Carroll, Chris Parmalee. Miguel Cabrera, Jose Ortega
NOT SO GOOD: Brayan Pena, Victor Martinez, Bruce Rondon

Sanchez finished strong after an uncharacteristically labored beginning, retiring the last 11 he faced… Nice acting job by Miggy on his “HBP”… Prince lingered at the railing after pursuing an out of play foul ball. Brought some laughs to the people there with whatever he said or did. Cool moment… Pena and Peralta premiered their new comedy routine “Hit and Run,” one pretending to swing while the other pretended to run. Nice ABs today, Brayan. Platoon? Ha ha ha… It’s official. The bullpen stinks. But Ortega was dynamite. Could the Tigers be saved by not one but two Jose’s?… Strikeouts thrown are not runs scored, unfortunately. I’m a bit weary of strikeout hoopla.

One pitch, one hit, one Prince, and the Tigers are 14-10 and atop the division by a half game over the Royals going into this game. They’ve won 4 straight for the second time this season. Now it’s Verlander vs. Worley, also for the second time this year, and this time it’s in Detroit.  In complete game weather, if you catch my drift. Though there is that JV right thumb blister to worry about.

Quote of the day: “Our bullpen is still complicated,” Leyland said. “It’s a whole lot less complicated because [closer Jose] Valverde is back at the end. That makes it less complicated. However, we have a lot of one-inning guys. That makes a big difference. I’m looking at that.”

I’m guessing that it’s just about time to get Ramon Santiago a bit of playing time and some at bats. He hasn’t had a plate appearance since April 20 against the Angels. I say he gets the start at SS tonight. Correct me if I’m wrong.

POST-GAME: Tigers 6, Twins 1. A smooth win on the surface, seemingly all Tigers, but I know Detroit’s bullpen makes you as nervous as it does me, even with a 5-run lead. Or a 10-run lead.

Game-changer and game-winner: Tigers 5th. Although Detroit had just made it 4-1, Jackson getting thrown out at 3B entirely unnecessarily in the middle of a rally is the sort of thing that a game can turn on. Fortunately, Cabrera safe on the fielder’s choice preserved a man on, and the next Fielder’s choice was lined into the RF seats for 2 runs and the nail in the coffin.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Justin Verlander, Prince Fielder

HONORABLE MENTION: Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Andy Dirks

NOT SO GOOD: Vance Worley

Wow!! That bad omen rain made me sooooo nervous.

The Detroit Tigers (13-10) wrap up their 9-game (less one postponed) home stand with three against the Minnesota Twins (11-10). The Tigers are coming off an exhilarating sweep of the Braves, while the Twins are coming off the AL equivalent, 2 convincing wins in a row over the Texas Rangers. You may recall that the Tigers began the season in Minneapolis with a series loss, and the names that come back to mind as the doers of damage are not Mauer and Morneau, but instead Escobar, Plouffe, Correia, Dozier, and even two former Tigers farmhands in Casey Fien and Wilkin Ramirez. But that was then and this is now. Real baseball weather for this series, and they won’t have to face the de facto Twins ace Correia this time. Detroit area forecast looking good through Wednesday.

Monday. April 29, 7:08 PM ET: RHP Mike Pelfrey vs. RHP Max Scherzer
Tueday, April 30, 7:08 PM ET: RHP Vance Worley vs. RHP Justin Verlander
Wednesday, May 1, 1:08 PM ET: LHP Scott Diamond vs. RHP Anibal Sanchez

SCOUTING REPORT ON THE TWINS: STARTING PITCHING: Not too good, with the exception of Correia. At the bottom of the AL in BAA (.312) and strikeouts (58!). And yet only the Tigers rotation has given up fewer HR. BULLPEN: Very good, quite deep, and to be feared. Tops in AL in WHIP (1.12). OFFENSE: Not so good. Their .362 SLG is lowest in the AL. Fewer HR than Detroit, if you can believe that. If the Tigers regular lineup was so peppered with dismal stat lines, we’d be climbing the walls. Mauer and Willingham are the big guns. The rest seem harmless, until you find out otherwise, as the Tigers did in Games 2-3. DEFENSE: The Twins might have a bit of an edge on the Tigers, not that the clowns don’t come out once in a while. Where they really have an edge is in controlling the running game. Remember how beatable Mauer looked the first time around? No more. OVERALL: So how do the Twins manage to be 11-10? Pretty much the same way they took 2 of 3 from the Tigers last time.

SCOUTING REPORT ON THE TIGERS: Pretend you’re a Twins fan and don’t know all of this already. STARTING PITCHING: Outstanding, well-nigh unbeatable so far. BULLPEN: If trustworthy is good, then not good. And even a little less good than that. With apologies to the reborn Papa Grande. Sorry, Al-Al. You make me as nervous as Villareal did. OFFENSE: Very good in a small ball sort of way (the times they are a-changin’), albeit prone to inconvenient funks that can last a whole series or more. Delve into the stats if you question the “very good” assessment. At least give me “good.” The base-running and related on-base strategy has been rather smart and aggressive so far, at least by Tigers standards. DEFENSE: Solid. Not a lot of highlight reel stuff, but astonishingly short on Clown Show. OVERALL: The Tigers hover on the brink of very-goodness.

PELFREY vs.SCHERZER: Current Tigers have an OPS of 1.014 in 107 PA against Pelfrey vs. his career .764. Pelfrey pitched fairly well against the Sleeping Bat Tigers (no relation, we hope) earlier this month, his defense letting him down although he took the win (with no ER) in 5.1. Pelfrey has pitched once at Comerica Park, for the New York Mets on June 30, 2011. It didn’t go so well for him. Omar Infante has really hit him in 30 PA. This season, Pelfrey has had a rough go of it after that first promising start against the Tigers. When he pitches well, he gets a lot of ground balls. When not, not. Not a strikeout pitcher.

Max is coming off a game vs. the Royals where he reinforced my impression that a significant lead seems to make him slack off. His strikeouts are off the chart, but I’d like to see him going a little deeper into games than he has been (2 of 4 starts were 5 inning affairs). Current Twins have an OPS of .809 in 96 PA against Scherzer vs. his career .732. The M & M Boys in particular have been scary good against Max. But maybe that was all in Minnesota?

WORLEY vs. VERLANDER: Current Tigers have only 36 PA vs. Worley, so suffice it to say that Game 2013.1 is our history here for the most part. Worley got the loss in a quality start against the Tigers on cold Opening Day, and wouldn’t you know it, he draws Verlander again. A couple bad starts since have his stats looking ugly, but from the last couple , you’d expect that what we saw the first time vs. the Tigers is more like it. He’s a bit tougher on lefties for a righty, and has the stuff to shut down the Sleeping Bat Tigers should they appear again, make no mistake. Worley has never pitched at Comerica Park.

Justin has been consistently damn good this year (let’s take a break from taking him for granted with “as expected”), but the Tigers have only scraped up an average 2.74 runs in support. Current Twins have an OPS of .744  in 201 PA against Verlander vs. his career .651. You can ascribe all of this to Joe Mauer. He shut the Twins down over 5 innings Opening Day, and the last time at Comerica against Minnesota (July 4, 2012) was a complete game gem. Run support, guys. Let’s have some here and avoid the “Cy Worley” comments.

DIAMOND vs. SANCHEZ: Whatever their record against LHP starters is (1-2? Better?), Detroit is hitting lefties – top of AL in BA, OBP, and OPS (4th in SLG). Current Tigers have an OPS of .543 in 86 PA against Diamond vs. his career .764. His career splits have him better against RHB than LHB (hello, Prince). Only Miggy has had much success against him. Diamond beat the Tigers twice in a row last they saw him, and handily, once in Detroit and once in Minneapolis. But he started this season on the DL and has not looked unusually impressive in 3 starts to date.

Anibal is coming off an astonishing performance against the Braves, but he’s been brilliant all year. He’s got the whole arsenal of pitches working, no doubt. Current Twins have an OPS of .601 in 74 PA against Sanchez vs. his career .708. Interestingly, Josh Willingham has drawn 7 walks in 17 PA. None intentional. Sanchez has never faced the Twins at Comerica, but there’s no reason to believe he can’t deny them like he did in Game 2013.2, even if the Twins did shellack him once in 2012, in his 4th start as a Tiger. Any chance the Twins are the same hackers the Braves were? No. Don’t look for 17.

The Tigers are in 2nd place at the moment, half a game behind the Royals. But let’s have a look at the important standings:

Kevin in Dallas…..7-2

Coleman…………..4-4

Smoking Loon……2-4

I am well aware that this is the result of a conspiracy against me. But this time I have Max, JV, and Anibal going for me, and nothing less than a sweep will do. If I have to sit Avila all three games and put Kelly Dirks on the DL to keep him out and Tuiasosopo in, so be it. (The Avila reverse jinx is in effect.)

Is there a bona fide platoon situation shaping up in LF? I think there is. Is Brayan Pena going to start catching about 1 game per series until further notice? I think he is. Is Ramon Santiago, despite kind of being the 26th man at the moment, going to get all the ABs Leyland can give him through May at the very least? I think he is, and really have no quarrel. Should we disregard the  current Toledo stats of Quintin Berry and Danny Worth in judging their (by and by) call-up-ability and ability to contribute? Yes, to a degree I think we should. And keep an eye on Jose Ortega.

And now, may we have the starting lineups, O Kindly Person? (Note plural. Or am I pushing my luck? Research has shown that posting the opposing teams lineup bestows a wWPA of +0.667.)

POST-GAME: Tigers 4, Twins 3. A nice come from behind and stay ahead win. After 5, with Kelly stranded at 3rd, I had my commentary on the loss written in my head: “If you’re the Twins, this is how you beat the Tigers. Just like last time.” I’m hoping not to copy and paste this tomorrow or Wednesday.

Elevator going down: For a while there, Max seemed to be working on demonstrating how to lose slowly while throwing nothing but strikes, while the Sleeping Bat Tigers were back in town. Only one scored in the Twins 2nd, but the way it was set up – the errorless error by Cabrera and the Scherzer wild pitch – brought an air of doom to the proceedings. Then in the Twins 5th, Max gave the  4th inning Dirks HR right back by challenging rookie Arcia with the fastball (hit for an RBI double), which seemed contrary to what the first Arcia AB had shown. Scherzer’s K on Arcia in the 7th was either an ingenious adjustment or straight out of the scouting report. Game-changer: The well-executed bunt for a hit by Andy Dirks in the Tigers 6th. Broke the spell. Game-winner: Tigers 6th, Prince Fielder’s first-pitch 3-run HR off of Pelfrey.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Prince Fielder

HONORABLE MENTION: Max Scherzer, Drew Smyly, Andy Dirks