My stream of consciousness on the Tigers most recent two games against the Red Sox, Zach Miner’s injury, and what ever else comes to mind.

Beating the Red Sox

Honestly, I’m thrilled with the series. Friday night was certainly a clunker and Saturday was shaping up to be one. From where they were in the first half of that second game to where they ended the series is reason to be excited.

Many of the Tigers earlier comebacks were against struggling pitchers or weak bullpens. That Detroit came back against the Red Sox and Jon Lester, and later out lasted the Boston bullpen is quite the endorsement for all those things like grit and never-say-die, and of course talent.

• Dontrelle Willis might have been rusty. He might have reverted to his 2008-9 ways. He was all over the place, and not the least bit comfortable on the mound. It’s one thing to have rust, it’s another to walk 7 and not last through the 4th inning. I’m hoping for the best but have much skepticism, even given his success this year.
• The Brennan Boesch phenomenon is something to behold. When I watch games now there are 3 Tigers who I don’t leave the room for when they are up. Boesch has joined Miguel Cabrera and Austin Jackson in that regard. That he is hitting lefties and breaking pitches is probably the most surprising aspect of his success. A Run Boesched In (Coleman term that is awesome) is around the corner.
• Eddie Bonine gave up a two run homer. His first runs allowed since April 11th. A remarkable streak and one that has been instrumental in at least 2 wins. He’s definitely less heralded than other members of the bullpen but the ability to suck up 3 innings at a crack is huge for an overworked pen.
• There are days like Sunday when the pitching match-up is heavily tilted one way, and Jim Leyland doesn’t put out the “A” lineup and there is a sense of hopelessness. Yet here come the Tigers, chipping away at Lackey to build a comfortable lead, and Galarraga finding his way through 5.2 innings of 1 run ball.
• I love watching players make their debuts, so it’s been a good year to be a Tigers fan. Worth “blistered” a shot to shallow second base resulting in his first hit and RBI. The coolest part might have been Miguel Cabrera recognizing both feats right away and tracking down the game ball for him.
• The bullpen isn’t out of the woods yet, even with Jeremy Bonderman chipping in an inning of help. Valverde has been used in consecutive days, as has Ryan Perry. But Phil Coke, Fu-Te Ni, and Joel Zumaya should all be ready tomorrow.

Zach Miner

Zach Miner has been battling an injury for the last 2 months now. He’s been rehabbing and an MRI just revealed a torn UCL. He’s going for a second opinion in terms of treatment options (surgery versus rehab and a strengthening program).

I don’t know if the UCL just recently tore or not. But if it had been torn all along this is certainly disappointing. Regardless it is unlikely that Miner will be able to contribute this year.

Miner is the type of pitcher a team with a struggling rotation could use. Someone who can make spot starts or eat 3-4 innings. Yet the Tigers are getting by without him, and will need to continue to do so. It also opens up a potential role for an Enrique Gonzalez or another minor league free agent should injuries or ineffectiveness creep in at some point on the staff.

Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis have secured the final two spots in the Tigers rotation, and Nate Robertson secured a spot with the Marlins. The Tigers today traded Robertson and $9.6 million of his $10 million contract for Marlins left handed prospect Jay Voss. For my thoughts on the trade, well, just look back a couple days.

Robertson outpitched his two competitors not only this spring, but last year as well. The stats say that Robertson should be in the rotation. It has to be a tough pill for Robertson to swallow.*

But, it is important not to make too much of spring stats, or even last year’s stats due to the limited sample sizes in play. Scouting reports should play a role as well and the Tigers are encouraged by the stuff that Willis and Bonderman have shown this spring.

On Willis Dombrowski said:

He’s throwing strikes. His ball has had quality movement. He looks more confident on the mound.

And on Bonderman:

He’s come back. He’s continued to progress. His arm strength is average to a tick above. It looks like he’s sinking the ball well. His slider has been good. He continues to work on his change — he’s thrown some good ones. I don’t want to say he’s got exactly the same stuff, because he used to throw 96-97 m.p.h. But it’s solid, major league stuff. He’s aggressive. You can tell he feels confident.

I’d have more faith in the Willis report if we hadn’t heard this before, like before the extension was signed prior to the 2008 season.

It would be one thing if there was salary relief in play today, but the only difference between cutting Robertson and the trade is Jay Voss (no disrespect intended Mr. Voss). They could have just cut any of the three really.

Eddie Bonine, Alfredo Figaro, Phil Coke, and Zach Miner all just became more important with today’s transaction.

*This isn’t really analysis, but Robertson is one of the Tigers I’ve had a chance to talk with. I’ll gloss over the “he’s a good guy” part because it’s cliche (but it’s also true). But Robertson did appreciate being a Tiger. He identified the Tigers as his team. He knows about the history and the places that legends such as Ernie Harwell and Al Kaline hold in our hearts. In that regard it makes me sad he’s leaving. Yes it is a business and he’s getting paid handsomely, but he’s also a person.

The Tigers trimmed their roster down to 32 this morning with a couple of disabled list moves and other cuts. Most notable was the placement of Bobby Seay and Zach Miner on the 15 day disabled list.

Seay has been traveling from doctor to doctor in search of a diagnosis on his balky left arm (UPDATE: It’s a torn rotator cuff. There’s more info at the bottom of the post). Miner’s malady seems less dire but he won’t be ready for the beginning of the season. The moves do open up two spots on the active roster.

Miner’s long relief role could be the destination for the loser of the Nate Robertson-Dontrelle Willis-Jeremy Bonderman battle (assuming Robertson doesn’t get traded). Right handed reliever Robbie Weinhardt also remains in camp meaning he still has a shot. On the left side of things it would see to boost Brad Thomas’ chances of heading to Kansas City for the opener.

Daniel Schlereth, one of the lefties looking for a spot in the pen, was among those cut today. Scherleth was optioned along with Wilkin Ramirez to Toledo. Enrique Gonzalez, Phil Dumatrait, and Max St. Pierre were sent to minor league camp.

UPDATE: The injury to Bobby Seay is a torn rotator cuff. The plan is for Seay to try and rehab the injury and avoid surgery if at all possible. While the Tigers have other lefty options, it really is a blow to Seay who is a free agent after this year and will likely have his open market value severely hampered due to the injury.

The Tigers have made a decision, at least for the time being, to stick with Dontrelle Willis in the starting rotation. Jeremy Bonderman will head to the bullpen…for now. Keeping Willis in the rotation is probably the right decision if Bonderman is the other option. Of course I kind of agree with Lee that perhaps that pool should include Zach Miner. That doesn’t seem like an option the team is exploring at the moment though, so what can we take from this decision?

First of all, Bonderman isn’t ready. I don’t think there is a lot of questioning of this point. I don’t see him being able to rebuild his arm strength pitching in sporadic low leverage situations in the pen. My guess is he gets optioned to Toledo (assuming he clears waivers and agrees to it) to work in the rotation and hopefully get his velocity back. He’s in the pen now because they need another arm in the pen, and likely want to bring Ryan Perry back. But Perry has to stay on optional assignment for a minimum of 10 days.

As for Willis, it appears he is pitching just well enough (not necessarily good) to hang in the rotation. This will be another test. I guess the goodish news is that we get to see Dontrelle hit for the first time.

The Tigers have some roster decisions looming with the imminent return of Jeremy Bonderman and Marcus Thames. In both cases there aren’t clear cut performance based decisions on who gets sent down so things like options come into play. There has been some confusion about the option status and service time of various players so let’s clear that up.

MLB roster rules are never simple and chuck full of exceptions. While salary data and service time data is generally findable, options are harder to find and often requires combing through transaction lists. Fortunately for Tigers fans Eddie Bajek compiled this information during the offseason.

When a player is on the 40 man roster and on neither the disabled list or the 25 man roster, they are on OPTIONAL assignment to another club. There is a limit to the number of years that a player can be on optional assignment and these are commonly refered to OPTIONS or OPTION YEARS. If said player is using an option in a given year, they can be recalled an optioned to the minors repeatedly without burning additional options. For example, Wilkin Ramirez was added to the 40 man roster prior to the season. During spring training he was optioned to Toledo so he used an option. When the Tigers recalled him while Magglio Ordonez was on bereavement leave and subsequently optioned back to Toledo, he didn’t use an additional option. It is still just one option.

Players typically have 3 options. This is to keep a team from burying a player in the minors forever which helps the player and helps distribute talent around the league. There are some exceptions where a player can have a 4th option year, based on when they were added to the 40 man roster but this is fairly rare.

Those are options in their simplest terms, now let’s take a look how it applies to a couple of Tigers:

Zach Miner: Zach Miner was added to the 40 man roster when he was called up by the Tigers during the 2006 season. He then spent the rest of the year on the active roster meaning that no option was used. In 2007 he split time in the minors and the majors meaning he used his 1st option year. Last year Miner was optioned to Toledo on July 2nd. So you’d think he would use an option, but to actually use the option you need to be on optional assignment for at least 20 days. Miner was backing pitching for the Tigers by July 21st and remained up the rest of the year. So he has 2 options remaining.

Armando Galarraga: This one had me fooled. The Rangers purchased his contract ahead of the 2006 season and he spent the bulk of that season and 2007 in the minors meaning he had used 2 options when the Tigers acquired him. He was assigned to Toledo to start the 2008 season but he was recalled prior to the 20 day rule meaning he has one option remaining.

Dontrelle Willis & Nate Robertson: Both players came up and when they were added to the 40 man roster earlier in their careers they pretty much stuck. Nate used one option early in his career but Dontrelle had his full slate going into 2008. Well last year  Willis used an option but it was completely at the club’s discretion. It a player has more than 5 years since their debut the player has the right to refuse the assignment. So Willis has 2 options, Nate has 3, but both could theoretically refuse optional assignment.

Ryan Raburn: Raburn started the year in the minors initiating his last option year. There is another caveat (and one that applies to Willis and Robertson as well) is that if it is more than 3 years after the debut a player must pass through revocable waivers before being optioned down. This shouldn’t be an issue though.

Clete Thomas & Jeff Larish: This is their second option year meaning that he’ll have one left after this year.

The above are the main candidates who could be bumped with the return of Thames and Bonderman and perhaps you learned something along the way. Big thanks to Eddie who captured all the information and presented it so succinctly. To see the option status for the rest of the Tigers be sure to check out his site.

Edwin Jackson

There has been some misinformation being floated around that Edwin Jackson is set to become a free agent. Seeing as we are talking about roster business I figured this should be addressed as well. To become a big league free agent you need 6 years of service time. Jackson came into this year with 3 years and 70 days (often seen as 3.070 years). He will be arbitration eligible in both 2010 and 2011 and won’t become a free agent until 2012.

Dontrelle Willis has a start scheduled for next Wednesday against the Twins. This will end his stint on the DL due to anxiety disorder. I don’t really know what to expect from Willis, but as Jim Leyland said:

“I think that’s good. I think it’s time to find out. The report is that he’s throwing pretty much around the plate all the time, 89-93 (mph) with his fastball, throwing some breaking balls, some change-ups, using all his pitches.

“I think it’s a huge thing for us, definitely. I’m all for finding out. I’m hoping he’s really good. Having a left-hander in the rotation would be really good for us.

“Regardless, it’s time to find out.”

Indeed it is.

Zach Miner is the one getting bumped from the rotation and he will be in the bullpen. No announcement has been made on who will head off the 25 man roster, and that decision likely won’t come until closer to the start.

Dontrelle Willis to start for Tigers on Wednesday | detnews.com | The Detroit News

Also, Dylan pointed me to this Fire Brand of the American League article about Dontrelle’s rehab start in Pawtucket.

With today’s rain out, the Tigers have changed their rotation, or have they demoted Zach Miner to the bullpen?

The two different stories have a different feel to be sure. First though, the upcoming pitchers are: Galarraga, Verlander, Jackson, Porcello. That’s what we know for sure. The Tigers are effectively skipping Rick Porcello this turn through the rotation. And with an off day Thursday, and another off day on Monday, Galarraga is expected to start the Tuesday game in LAAnaheim. Which means Zach Miner is being skipped in the next turn through the rotation.

I really think this is more a matter of maximizing the starts for the Verlander/Galarraga/Jackson triumvirate than it is a relegation of Zach Miner to the bullpen. Miner wasn’t good on Monday, but not many pitchers were good in that weather and I can’t see that as a reason for him to lose a spot in the rotation. But…who knows what will happen between now and the next time the team needs a 5th starter.

Today’s roster decisions pretty much wrapped up nearly 2 months (and in some cases even more) of speculation. There is one spot yet to be decided. That will go to either Jeff Larish or Brent Clevlen, though the Tigers are reportedly in trade talks with the Pirates regarding Clevlen. (ironically, or at least coincidentally, such a trade would displace former Tiger Craig Monroe) But with 96% of the roster decided we shift our guessing from personnel to performance.

Rick Porcello

Certainly the most notable of the roster decisions was the installment of Rick Porcello into the rotation. The move is both controversial, and exciting at the same time. While I’m not generally a proponent of “rushing” pitchers I’m on board.

The downside of bringing Porcello up is that he may not be ready. The Tigers have invested substantially in Porcello and ruining him would be a disaster. They were very careful with his workload last year in an effort to try and keep him healthy in his first professional season.

But unlike Andrew Miller (who I did contest was rushed), Porcello has multiple pitches that are good enough for the big league level. He fanned fewer than 6 batter per inning, which isn’t good. But he did that as a 19 year old in High A ball and a power sinker that drove ball after ball into the ground kept his ERA at 2.66.

The low K-rate hurt Porcello in the eyes of PECOTA (6.52 ERA), which is certainly understandable and something that shouldn’t just be dismissed. I actually don’t know if PECOTA takes into account groundball/flyball ratios. But it’s also worth noting that Porcello’s ERA should benefit from an infield featuring Brandon Inge, Adam Everett, and Placido Polanco.

The other concern is workload. I’ve argued that if you’re concerned about innings accumulation why not use Porcello now instead of later in the season? A refrain I’ve heard is “the Tigers won’t shut him down if he’s effective and they’re contending.” I’m sorry, but I don’t see that as a concern. Porcello performing well and the Tigers contending would be wonderful news – not a negative.

It sounds like the goal is to have Porcello pitch about 160 innings and throw 100-110 pitches per game (a figure I’m confident they would work up to), which as Dave Dombrowski points out can be managed at the big league level as well as the minor league level.

And quite frankly, Porcello (aided by Bonderman’s injury) out pitched his competition. It’s a risk, but in a wide open division, it is a risk worth taking.

Zach Miner

Miner struggled considerably early in the preseason, and once his shot at starting was nearly eliminated, he turned it up a notch. Miner will probably bounce between the pen and the rotation throughout the season, as he has throughout his career. With Bonderman’s return looming, he’ll be pitching against Porcello to try and stay in the rotation.

Nate Robertson

Robertson’s spring was up and down. He started rough, turned in a couple of very good performances as he became more left handed, and then sprained his thumb. He struggled yesterday in the rain, but Jim Leyland said he wasn’t going to hold it against Nate. That may have kept Robertson on the team, but relegated him to the pen, a place where Robertson doesn’t feel comfortable.

Given the uncertainty in the rotation, having Robertson around, even just to potentially eat innings, is a move worth making. Part of me also wonders if Robertson in the pen is a Leyland/Dombrowski compromise. Where Porcello got to make the team to help the short leashed skipper, but the GM wasn’t ready to cut bait with Robertson.

Ryan Perry/Juan Rincon/Eddie Bonine

There are 3 very different stories here, but a common theme. Perry is last year’s first round pick. A pick at the time that seemed like one who could even bolster the Tigers pen last year. The fact he’s made the team as a reliever isn’t shocking because his exposure can be limited. Rincon is the NRI trying to regain his pre-2007 form as a very good set-up man. Bonine is a middling prospect who doesn’t have a clear role defined.

But the common theme, and one that has been evident in each of these decisions, is that they earned it on the field. Each of these guys were longshots for the team, and pitched their way in. For those who thought last year’s squad had too much of a sense of entitlement, this should be refreshing. Of the players cut, only Clay Rapada and Casey Fien would really have an argument, and even then it would be more of a discussion.

Now the flip side to this is that too much shouldn’t be placed into spring training statistics. But the decisions being made (with the possible exception of Robertson) aren’t being made because of contracts.

The news from Lakeland today is that Joel Zumaya and Jeremy Bonderman may not be ready by Opening Day. The Zumaya news isn’t at all surprising. The Bonderman news isn’t especially surprising, but a little concerning as he looks to regain velocity. But that’s not all…

There is of course the Nate Robertson thumb injury which thankfully doesn’t sound too serious. Still, it’s not a lock that he’ll make his next scheduled turn.

And option Rick Porcello hasn’t been quite as dazzling since the finger injury. He’s struggled somewhat with his control against the Yankees on Saturday. Tonight he walked 3 and allowed 3 hits in 2.1 innings against Tampa.

This spring has seen a lot of ups and downs from the various members of the rotation. Verlander was working on stuff and all over the place before finding his groove. Robertson was washed up and done before turning in back to back nice outings before the thumb injury. Porcello was the best pitcher in camp before his finger injury. Zach Miner was relegated to the bullpen before he seemed to figure things out. Who knows what will happen over the next week. Maybe Dontrelle Willis and his new leg kick will give us reason for hope.

So the Tigers just get everybody back from the WBC, and then they lose Adam Everett and Nate Robertson in the first inning today.

Everett sprained an ankle sliding into second and Robertson took a throw from Danny Worth on his pitching hand resulting in a sprained thumb.

Neither injury sounds especially serious, but with a week left in camp with the whole team together, this is at minimum a nuisance. It also puts into jeopardy Robertson’s ability to start the season in the rotation, a position he was working himself into with his last couple outings.

On the other hand, Zach Miner who was almost assured of a spot in the pen, has now pitched two strong outings in a row and may find himself back in the hunt.

One guy who may have pitched himself off the roster today was Scott Williamson. Williamson allowed 5 runs in one inning of work today. He was probably on the wrong side of the bullpen bubble, and today certainly didn’t help his cause.

Lynn Henning has been writing about Rick Porcello daily, basically imploring Jim Leyland and Dave Dombrowski to take him north. In fact it’s the only story he’s been writing about. (although I haven’t written about much either so I’m not really ragging on him for this). Well in this afternoon’s piece Henning says:

Fans are nervous. Fans are excited. Rick Porcello is coming to town, as near as we can tell today, as part of Tigers manager Jim Leyland’s rotation.

Is this Henning speculation or fact? I have to believe it’s more the former than the latter. Porcello is clearly outperforming Robertson/Willis/Miner and is healthier than Bonderman. And if the season started next week I think the Tigers would take Porcello over the other options. But last I looked it’s March 13th and the season doesn’t start until April.

Why would the Tigers make this decision now? With Robertson and Willis on multi-year contracts there is no money to save by ending the competition now. Both will have several more chances to earn a spot and Porcello will have several more chances to demonstrate his readiness. It all seems premature.

Add in the fact that there is no Leyland quote about this and the other beats don’t make mention of it, and I think this is an informed guess as opposed to breaking news.

In other rotation-y news though, Jason Beck notes that the rotation order is lining up for the regular season with Justin Verlander starting on Opening Day (no surprise) and Edwin Jackson pitching game 2. And Jon Paul Morosi notes that there is no more slack remaining in Jeremy Bonderman’s schedule if he’s going to be ready for the first week. Most years the Tigers could get by with four starters the first week or two, but with the team playing 10 straight days there is no flexibility.

With a job in the rotation up for grabs, the leading incumbents have struggled. Dontrelle Willis has taken a step forward from his struggles last year, but it hasn’t been a big enough step to warrant a rotation spot. Nate Robertson, who I expected to pitch better this year, simply hasn’t. But Rick Porcello? The longshot? He spun 3 scoreless innings where he did allow 5 hits, but none for extra bases and no walks. We’re still almost a month away from Opening Day, but is it time for the 20 year old?

The most compelling argument to keep Porcello in the minors relates to workload and stamina. In his only professional season he was kept to a hard 75 pitch limit in each of his starts. He also amassed only 125 innings. I say only not because that was too few, but it is less than where he’d need to be. So there is work to do in building stamina.

But the stamina/workload issue might also be the most compelling reason to bring him North right away. If you are of the belief he has multiple major-league-ready pitches right now (which many scouts do), why not take advantage of them early in the season? Why wait until he is closer to his seasonal inning limit later in the year. Why not get what you can from the kid to start the season?

Yes he is all of 20 years old, but poise and maturity don’t seem to be an issue for him.

There are of course economic reasons to keep him in the minors. Two of those are the contracts to Robertson and Willis. A third is the contract to Porcello himself. “Rushing” him and ruining him would be quite the blow given the bonus he received. Plus it accelerates his service time.

The Tigers (and every other team in the Central) are in contention for the division. If Porcello is going to pitch for the club this year, I’d rather it be in April than August. There are reasons to keep him in the minors. But it should only come down to 5 reasons – and those would be the 5 guys who prove themselves to be better options in the rotation. So far, and things could change in the next 4 weeks, those 5 reasons haven’t become apparent.

For more:Case closed? Bring Porcello north » Mack Avenue Tigers : A Detroit Tigers Blog

"I’m looking for pitching," Leyland said. "You can write whatever you want."

That’s the message that Jim Leyland sent to reporters today when he announced that Rick Porcello would get a start on Wednesday. Further solidifying that Porcello might really be a rotation candidate this season.

With Dontrelle Willis still shaky, Zach Miner getting rocked yesterday, and Nate Robertson not blowing people away, the door is a little bit open. Or maybe all the way open, but are there 4 guys trying to fit through it?

The Tigers got as good of news as they could have today on Jeremy Bonderman’s shoulder after an examination in Detroit today. Of course he’s still not throwing, but it doesn’t sound like things are structurally a problem.

Now whether or not Porcello getting a turn is out of curiosity, a message to the incumbents, or further evaluation for a rotation in flux remains to be seen. But this could be a pattern for the next few weeks. With Bonderman day-to-day, Armando Galarraga now pitching for Venezuela, and Justin Verlander first alternate for Team USA, the guys competing for the back end of the bullpen should have a chance to show what they have (or don’t have).

We recently took a look at the Tigers team defense through the eyes of David Pinto’s Probabilistic Model of Range. As Pinto wraps up this season’s numbers, he calculated the PMR behind each pitcher. Not much went right for Nate Robertson this year, and it is little surprise that his woes were reflected in the PMR numbers as well.

The table below is a combination of Pinto’s PMR work and batted ball data from Fangraphs.

2008 PMR by Pitcher

Nate Robertson had the 7th lowest rate of balls in play converted to outs in Major League baseball. Now Robertson wasn’t particularly unlucky – at least in regard to his fielders letting him down. His defense only made 2 fewer plays than expected behind Robertson. Robertson also posted one of the lowest expected DER’s in baseball as well.

What is unexpected is why that rate is so low. Looking at his batted ball stats, they aren’t remarkable in any way. His line drive rate isn’t high, his infield fly rate isn’t low. His ground ball and fly ball rates are consistent. Yet his expected DER is a recipe for disaster. Is it that Robertson was especially unlucky in that a disproportionate number of balls were hit to locations where nobody could get to them (save the “over-the-fence” jokes, those aren’t in these stats).

Meanwhile, Armando Galarraga was on the opposite end of the spectrum. He had a high expected DER, plus his defense helped him out to the tune of 16 plays. Kenny Rogers gave up a fairly high line drive rate, so his struggles aren’t at all surprising. Justin Verlander was hurt by his defense to the tune of 4 plays, but hardly was that the main source of his struggles.

But back to Robertson, I don’t know what to make of the data. Sometimes it feels like a cop-out to chalk things up to luck, and I saw Robertson struggle – especially in the second half. His peripherals did slip with Nate fanning a few less hitters and walking a few more, but those shifts paled in comparison to the .343 batting average on balls in play. If he was giving up line drives all over the park, it would be easier for me to chalk things up to a lack of stuff. That wasn’t the case. It truly does seem like the opposition managed to “hit-em-where-they-weren’t” with remarkable consistency last year.

Zach Miner paid the price for a 4 walk effort on Tuesday night with an assignment to Toledo. Aquilino Lopez who was being stretched out as a starter has been recalled to provide a strike thrower in the pen.

Both moves are warranted, but my first thought when hearing of this was Denny Bautista. The Tigers thought they were better off ditching Bautista than optioning Miner or other optionable pitchers.

Bautista isn’t going to make or break this team so I don’t want to make too much of it. And his qualifications as a strike thrower were dubious at best. I just don’t understand what changed that dramatically that Miner couldn’t be sent down 2 weeks ago.