With spring training underway there has been a flood of news bubbling up from Lakeland (and of course there are those pesky Johnny Damon rumors). But one that caught my eye was Jim Leyland’s dismissal of Scott Sizemore as the number two hitter. Somewhat understandably I suppose he doesn’t want rookies batting in the top two spots . But why pencil in Austin Jackson as the leadoff hitter in the first place?

Jackson certainly has a number of tools and is deservedly ranked on many top 100 prospect lists. Plate discipline hasn’t been one of those strengths though. He has a respectable .356 OBP as a minor leaguer, but he also fanned 2.3 times for every walk he took.

Sizemore’s greatest asset is his bat. He has maintained a .383 OBP throughout his minor league career supported by a .305 batting average and drawing walks in 13% of his plate appearances. His K/BB ratio is 1.3.

I won’t pretend to know who will have the better season and who will adjust quicker to big league pitching.  But based on all the available data it would point to Sizemore having the better chance at putting up at least a league average on base percentage. The difference though in Jim Leyland’s mind is that Jackson plays center and accordingly he should hit leadoff so he can make things happen.

I couch this all in the fact that I don’t really believe lineups make that big of a difference, and Leyland’s quotes on pitcher and catcher reporting day probably mean even less. But it a suspicious thought process where Jackson has the leadoff spot to lose while Sizemore is pushed to the lower rungs of the lineup.

Photo Credit: Roger DeWitt (hueytaxi on Flickr)

The Tigers decided to offer arbitration to relievers Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney, but not to take the risk with second baseman Placido Polanco. We didn’t really learn too much by these moves that we weren’t already expecting. If nobody were offered it may have signaled that the Tigers were as poor as everyone speculated. If everyone were offered it would either mean the Tigers weren’t really financially restricted or that Scott Sizemore’s injury wouldn’t allow him to be ready. Instead we’re somewhere in the middle.

The good news with Lyon and Rodney is that the Tigers stand to gain high draft picks if either player is signed by another team. If they accept arbitration the Tigers will have a couple relievers on one year deals for about $5 million apiece. However, Dave Dombrowski doesn’t expect either player to accept but he also didn’t rule out signing either player. With Lyon in particular I could see the team willing to sign him to a 2 year deal.

With Polanco it is one of those tough decisions, but one that is right. Polanco was part of the renaissance of baseball in Detroit and was an easy guy to root for. He played hard, never complained, and was remarkably steady. And while he was probably overrated by many fans for his batting average, he was the guy I felt most comfortable with at the plate in a key situation (yes, I know his career .307 BAISP isn’t appreciably different than his overall .303 BA it is still a pretty good clip and the fact that he’d find a way to put the ball in play made me “feel” better).

But for a change the Tigers actually have a position player prospect poised to take over a position of need in Scott Sizemore. He isn’t being rushed or pushed up for a spark or as an injury replacement. Scouts feel he can hit at the big league level now and his minor league numbers show he can transfer his tools to production.

Now the decision to let Polanco go is different than the decision to offer him arbitration. By not offering him arbitration Polanco will not fetch the team additional draft picks. The lack of a compensation pick also makes Polanco much more attractive to potential suitors. So when he ultimately signs a 2-3 year deal with someone, there will be complaints that the Tigers missed out. The complainers though have to realize that Polanco’s market shrinks with a compensation pick attached and that multi-year offer likely wouldn’t be there.

The Tigers have added Scott Sizemore, Ryan Strieby, Brennan Boesch, and Audy Ciriaco to the 40 man roster, protecting them from the Rule 5 draft. The roster was at 42, but with the 6 free agents off the roster, and the addition of these 4 players it is now full at 40.

The additions of Sizemore and Strieby are not the least bit surprising. Strieby was one of the best hitters in the Eastern League last year while he was healthy. He’s seemingly blocked at first base and will see increased work in the outfield, but regardless he is too good of a hitter to let walk.  Sizemore of course is the heir apparent at second base with the likely departure of Placido Polanco.

After those two though there was a larger pool of players on the bubble. The Tigers decided to stick with the toolsy (and hopefully starting to translate to production) Ciriaco and the power of Brennan Boesch. Ciriaco finally started to tie those tools into some production late last year where he got his line drive rate up to the teens from June forward. And despite Boesch’s struggles controlling the plate (127 K’s and 34 BB’s last year) he did slug at a .510 clip. It’s interesting though that as Dave Dombrowski talks about improving plate discipline throughout the organization they protected two players who have the strike out and walk rates that Ciriaco and Boesch do.

Among those left off the roster were a handful of pitchers including Luis Marte, Bryan Villarreal, Scot Drucker, and Brett Jensen. I’m not necessarily surprised by the absence of any one of those pitchers, but that none were protected is a little surprising.

Things are likely to change yet as trade rumors swirl and the Tigers have to decide on a shortstop.

The early encouraging returns on Scott Sizemore’s broken tibia have been replaced with a cringe inducing MRI report. During his examination today, it was determined that the injury will require surgery.

Sizemore told John Lowe and the Freep:

“The torn tendons cause instability in the ankle,” Sizemore said. “They are going to put in a few screws to lock everything into place.”

The team isn’t commenting yet. It looked like a sure thing that Sizemore, the Tigers likely second baseman in 2010, would be fully healed in a matter of weeks and the injury would be a non-factor by February. The prognosis isn’t dire at this point, but there is a possibility he won’t be all the way back by the time players report to Lakeland.

Based on the information available in the Free Press article, Baseball Prospectus injury guru Will Carroll said in an email:

“My guess is he’ll be back for ST, but maybe not 100% while he figures out the ankle. It depends on how he heals. It shouldn’t be too much of a long term issue. I’ve never seen a 2B with this, so it’s tough to judge.

Color me cautiously optimistic

Tigers prospect Scott Sizemore needs surgery | Detroit Free Press | Freep.com

Latest Update: Sizemore has a fractured tibia and is on his way to Detroit

Scott Sizemore, the heir apparent at second base left today’s game in the first inning due to an injury. He was trying to turn a double play when a hard slide by Danny Espinosa caused both players to exit. What we know right now is that Sizemore’s injury is to his left leg but I hope to know more shortly.

Mark Anderson’s sources say it is an ankle with no confirmation on severity

On a brighter note Casper Wells hit a 2-2 Stephen Strasburg curve ball out to left center for a grand slam.

The Tigers representatives in the Arizona Fall League now have a week under their belts. Since the opener most have handled the challenge quite well so far with your likely 2010 second baseman Scott Sizemore leading the way.

Scott Sizemore

All he’s done is homer 3 times, double twice, and walk twice in 18 plate appearances. That’s good enough for a 375/400/1.063 slash line and prompting Kevin Goldstein to say “there isn’t really a glaring weakness in his game.”

Casper Wells

Mark Anderson of TigsTown thinks that a big fall could put Wells in the mix for the outfield rotation in 2010. So far he has a 444/450/889 line in 19 plate appearances. He has fanned 8 times though so it appears he’s either hitting the ball hard or not at all.

Cale Iorg

So far Iorg seems to be picking up his AFL season where his Erie season ended, and that’s not necessarily a good thing. He has a 182/182/250 line so far but I guess the good news would be that he’s only fanned 4 times. In Kevin Goldstein’s BP 10 Pack he listed this scout’s comment on Iorg:

I like the tools and what he does with the glove… but he just can’t hit.

Andrew Oliver

After getting knocked around a little bit in his first outing he bounced back nicely fanning 3 and walking 1 in his next outing which lasted 2 innings. He followed that up with a 1 inning stint that saw him allow 2 hits, but no damage while notching another strikeout.

Robbie Weinhardt

Weinhardt also improved with his second outing, but that was really the only way for him to go. But he still allowed 2 runs in 1.1 innings. Weinhardt has allowed 7 runs in 3 AFL innings on 9 hits and 3 walks. For someone who allowed just 8 earned runs in 30 AA innings this year this is certainly uncharacteristic.

Scot Drucker

Drucker isn’t really viewed as a prospect, but he has done well with this opportunity so far. He’s allowed just 1 run on 2 hits in 5 innings despite just striking out 2.

The Arizona Fall League started today. The Tigers had quite a few representatives in today’s effort, a game that saw the opposition hang 17 runs on the board.

I guess the bad news first, the Tigers had 3 pitchers in today’s game. Scot Drucker started and allowed a run in 2 innings. It was downhill from there. Andy Oliver drew a tough assignment for his first professional action and he was tagged for 4 runs due to 2 hits, including a homer, and 2 walks in his inning of work. Robbie Weinhardt got knocked around for 5 runs on 6 hits, a walk, a wild pitch, and a hit by pitch in 1.2 innings.

Offensively things were a little better. Scott Sizemore had an 0 for 4, but Casper Wells doubled and singled and Cale Iorg went 1 for 3.

Winter Leagues: Arizona Fall League: Statistics | MLB.com: Events

UPDATE: Take 75 North weighs in on the game and Fire Jim Leyland looks at Oliver’s pitch f/x data.

Just because the regular minor league seasons are over doesn’t mean there isn’t news coming out about the Tigers prospects. The instructional league is in full swing, the Arizona Fall League is starting, and post season awards are being handed out.

Instructional League

Jacob Turner

The IL games are underway. Mark Anderson of TigsTown is on site and filing daily reports. The first one was free, but the subsequent ones are premium content. Based on the 2 reports so far Audy Ciriaco has been a star.

The IL is also a chance to see many of the Tigers 2009 draftees in Tigers uniform for the first time. Lakeland resident Roger DeWitt has been hanging around the fields and posting his pictures on Flickr. As has been the case the last few years, Roger was the first to get shots of the Tigers first round picks in action and he has Jacob Turner throwing on one of the practice mounds.

Arizona Fall League

The Tigers have had to make some adjustments to their AFL roster due to the arm problems of Cody Satterwhite and the lingering wrist problem of Ryan Strieby. In a surprise move (at least I was surprised), 2nd round pick Andrew Oliver will take Satterwhite’s spot.

What isn’t known is if Oliver is going because he has really impressed so far and the Tigers want to see what he does against advanced competition in preparation for an aggressive assignment next year, or if he is going by default.

Casper Wells will take Strieby’s spot, but that isn’t so much of a surprise.

Player of the Year Honors

Congratulations to Scott Sizemore and Casey Crosby who took home organizational Player of the Year and Pitcher of the Year honors. (As predicted by Take 75 North).

Both had outstanding seasons. Crosby was kept on the 75 pitch limit which did hold down his innings but he still managed 117 strike outs in 104.1 innings. I’d imagine he’d start out in Lakeland next year with an 85-90 pitch limit but he could very well end up at Erie before the year is out.

Sizemore just raked the ball all season. He hit in Erie and continued hitting as he spent the 2nd half of the year in Toledo and he may be pushing Placido Polanco out the door.

Louisville 3 Toledo 2
Wilkin Ramirez and Wil Rhymes each had 2 hits. Nate Robertson started and went 6.2 innings, he allowed 3 hits, no runs, 2 walks, and he fanned 9 – and it only took him 68 pitches to do it. Jeremy Bonderman didn’t fare as well allowing 2 runs on 2 hits and a walk in 1 inning.

Erie 5 Reading 8
Michael Bertram was a single short of the cycle. Casper Wells had 3 hits including 2 doubles. Jared Gayhart got another start and lasted 4 innings with 5 K’s, 2 walks, 4 hits, and 1 run.

Lakeland 4 Daytona 6
Devin Thomas and Jeramy Laster each had 2 doubles. Lauren Gagnier allowed 2 homers and 4 runs on 8 hits, 2 walks, and 5 K’s in 5 innings. Austin Wood pitched a scoreless inning with a strike out.

West Michigan 3 Lansing 4
Billy Nowlin homered for 1 of his 3 hits. Ben Guez and Luis Salas each had 2 hits, and Salas added 2 walks. Luke Putkonen fanned 8 in 6 shutout innings allowing 2 walks and 4 hits. Jade Todd was lit up for 4 runs in 2.1 innings.

Oneonta 1 Staten Island 4
Jamie Johnson doubled and walked. Alexis Espinoza doubled an singled. Mark Newman pitched 4 shutout innings with 4 hits, no walks and 2 K’s.

GCL Tigers 1 GCL Blue Jays 4
Brett Anderson went 2 for 4. Rayni Guichardo pitched 6 shutout innings and fanned 5 against 3 walks and 3 hits. Melvin Mercedes picked up his 15th save with a scoreless inning.

Minors Notes

The Tigers preliminary Arizona Fall League roster was announced. Robbie Weinhardt, Cody Satterwhite, Thad Weber, Ryan Strieby, Cale Iorg, and Scott Sizemore will represent the Tigers. Take 75 North breaks down the selections.

Also of note, Jeff Larish is done for the year as his wrist required surgery. Larish did pretty much nothing at the plate the latter part of the year and at least with an injury there is some explanation.

It’s that time of year when trade rumor talk is through the roof. Combined with the Tigers recent struggles, I know this is top of mind stuff for many. I don’t do a lot of trade speculation here, mostly because I’m too lazy to conjure up potential deals. However, I do know this is a hot topic so please use this space to discuss things. Below are a couple of my thoughts on who the Tigers shouldn’t give up, as well as some links to current-ish rumors.

The Keepers

I’m not big on the term untouchable, but there are a few guys in the Tigers system that I would be very reluctant to part with. This isn’t necessarily because they are through the roof prospects, but because of the impending role they may play in the near future. Rick Porcello would definitely fit into this category. And with most any move involving prospects, that’s where I’m going to turn most of my focus.

Scott Sizemore: Sizemore makes the list because he has hit so well this year at both AA and AAA that he appears to be pretty much major league ready. He also plays a position where the incumbent is aging and not signed for next year. In other words there is a high likelihood he will be the Tigers starting second baseman next year.

Alex Avila: Avila is a catcher who is hitting a AA in only his second professional season. His defense is still evolving, but he has a very good caught stealing rate. Avila is likely to be ready by 2011 at the latest and the Tigers don’t have a long term option at catcher. His potential role on the team combined with the emerging talent makes him too valuable to part with.

And that’s it. Everyone else in the minors leagues would be fair game. I like Wilkin Ramirez, but as a corner outfielder the Tigers could more easily absorb his loss. Cale Iorg has failed to impress this year. I’d be a little reluctant to move him, just because they may be selling low.

The news-ish stuff

Dave Dombrowski spoke to the media yesterday, and while he said quite a bit he didn’t really tip his hand at all. What was interesting is that he spoke of the depth in the Tigers farm system. I do think there is some depth, but there is a lack of top end talent.

Specifically Dombrowski said that he could name 10 relievers who could be ready to help the team in the next year. Off the top of my head I have Casey Fien, Zach Simons, Robbie Weinhardt, Cody Satterwhite, Josh Rainwater, Brett Jensen, Clay Rapada, Luis Marte (don’t know if you get to count him since he’s a starter right now), Brett Jacobson, Jared Gayhart, Scott Green. To expect all of them to be ready within a year I think is a litte far-fetched, but hey, it’s his job to talk up his system.

Dombrowski also apparently had a phone conversation with JP Ricciardi about someone not named Roy Halladay. Speaking of Halladay, there’s lot of buzz around him, but most of it is centered on the Phillies.

Some Tigers specific news involves includes scouts from the Washington Nationals attending AA Erie games potentially scouting some of those relievers, or Deik Scram, or Casper Wells, or Cale Iorg.

Troy Glaus is available and Rosenthal and Morosi list the Tigers as a potential suitor (ick).

Feel free to add other rumors or breaking news in the comments. With it being the weekend I won’t be tethered to a computer, but if something happens I will get info up as quickly as possible.

A pile of links on the eve of the All Star break…

If you find yourself a little bored with the Tigers game today, you can always flip over to ESPN and catch Scott Sizemore, the lone Tigers representative in the All Star Future’s game. With Polanco on the last year of his contract and Sizemore hitting a combined 300/392/508 line between Erie and Toledo it’s reasonable that he may be the Tigers second baseman next year. But Keith Law doesn’t seem to be that high or low on him.

With Brandon Inge making the All Star team he will earn a $25,000 bonus. Really. Given Inge’s career can you imagine that as a negotiating point? Granderson will also get $25K. There’s no mention of what happens if Inge wins the home run derby but the consensus seems to be it doesn’t mess up your swing.

Before Armando Galarraga got knocked around on Saturday night, I was ready to explore a theory about the good luck charm that is the High School Musical backpack. It’s the backpack that the relievers carry out to the bullpen full of treats and snacks and such and it is the responsibility of the least tenured rookie. Well, Fu-Te Ni has had the bag and he’s pitched well, and then in the 16 inning game Armando Galarraga was the only man in the pen and had to carry it back, and followed it up with his best start. But Ni had a run charged to him last night and Galarraga had 4 so there goes that theory.

The interesting thing about Fu-Te Ni is that he seems to move around on the rubber when he faces righties as opposed to lefties. I’ve wondered why more pitchers wouldn’t do this.

Carlos Guillen is set to begin a rehab assignment. He could equate to a mid season trade if he can return and be productive. I’d hope the Tigers aren’t pinning al their hopes on Guillen, but it does make sense to take a look before giving up too much for a bat.

Rick Porcello won’t pitch in the Yankees series after the All Star game. Luke French, Justin Verlander, and Edwin Jackson will start in the Bronx. Porcello’s next start hasn’t been announced. But he is blogging now.

Toledo 3 Scranton/WB 7
Brent Clevlen went 3 for 4 with a homer. Brooks Brown (with him pitching tonight he won’t make Dontrelle’s next start for Detroit) allowed 5 runs on 3 walks and 7 hits in 4.1 innings. Freddy Dolsi pitched 3 innings (are they stretching him out for Miner’s role?) and allowed 2 hits and fanned 2.

Erie 0 Portland 5
Erie only managed 3 hits. Casper Wells had one of them. Jonah Nickerson allowed 4 runs in 7 innings on 9 hits, 0 walks, 2 homers, and 3 K’s.

Lakeland 0 Charlotte 1
Chris Carlson and Santo De Leon each had 2 hits. Thad Weber deserved better after giving up just 1 run on 5 hits, no walks, and 6 K’s in 7 innnings.

Fort Wayne 3 West Michigan 7
Gustavo Nunez and Brandon Douglas each had 3 hits. Nunez also had 3 stolen bases pushing his season total to 33. Jordan Lennerton homered. Luke Putkonen lasted 5 innings and surrendered just 1 run on 4 K’s, 3 walks, and 6 hits.

Scott Sizemore

Tigers 2nd base prospect was promoted to Toledo on Sunday. Take 75 North provided some depth and background to the move and shows that it was definitely warranted and Sizemore has positioned himself as the top 2nd base prospect in the system. Beyond that, I read this as a fairly significant promotion as it relates to the big league club. This will give the Tigers 6 weeks to see what Sizemore can do at AAA prior to the trade deadline. Making a decision on 6 weeks of data is shaky, but Sizemore does have a decent track record beyond that. Sizemore’s and Polanco’s performance over the next 6 weeks, and possibly the season, will likely dictate whether or not Polanco is offered a contact for 2010.

Rick Porcello - cr Roger DeWitt

It’s another one of those rites of the offseason, the Baseball America top 10 list. The list itself is available to anyone, but for additional information (like scouting reports) you need to be a subscriber.

As for the list, here it is:

1. Rick Porcello, rhp
2. Ryan Perry, rhp
3. Cale Iorg, ss
4. Casey Crosby, lhp
5. Jeff Larish, 1b/3b
6. Wilkin Ramirez, of
7. Scott Sizemore, 2b
8. Cody Satterwhite, rhp
9. Dusty Ryan, c
10. Guillermo Moscoso, rhp

Usually when the list comes out I look back to the previous year’s list to see who stayed and who left. Hopefully the list changes because guys graduate and lose prospect status. In the Tigers case there are only 4 players carrying over from the ‘08 last. As for the other 6? Only one graduated and that was Matt Joyce.

Yorman Bazardo and Francisco Cruceta flamed out. Danny Worth and Mike Hollimon had their development hindered due to injuries. Brandon Hamilton struggled in West Michigan, and while he’s still a prospect he’s no longer in the top 10.

Ryan Perry - cr Roger DeWitt

The flip side of guys losing status is that some other earned their way into the top 10. Wilkin Ramirez built on a strong spring training and exploded for AA Erie. Guillermo Moscoso had an outstanding season, and Dusty Ryan played himself into the Tigers 09 plans. And Ryan Perry and Cody Satterwhite were new draftees who cracked the top 10.

So it’s not that the Tigers system is without talent – guys who stand a decent chance to play at the big league level. What it lacks is enough players who could excel at the big league level.

Zach Miner starts again

The question of the 5th starter has been answered – for now. Zach Miner will take the spot formerly occupied by Eddie Bonine and before him Dontrelle Willis. Miner had some struggles with control out of the pen this year. But in two “stretch-out” starts for Toledo he has posted a 12:2 strike out to walk ratio in 8.1 innings. I’m in favor of giving Miner a shot, but I think there will be a pretty quick switch if he starts running every count full and walking people.

Is Tiger Stadium saved?

There have been deadline extenstions, and votes to keep some parts, and votes to knock the whole thing down. But now the Daily Fungo points to a news release on Carl Levin’s web site that there is $4 million earmarked for Corktown preservation and redevelopment. Presumably this is the money that the Old Tiger Stadium Conservancy is hoping to obtain to save a portion of the stadium.

Injured middle infielders littered throughout the system

When the Tigers traded away their stud centerfield prospects middle infield became the organizational position of strength. Instead it’s become the organizational position of DL stays and ibuprofen. Edgar Renteria is battling a hamstring injury that he reagravated tonight.

Cale Iorg, the Tigers big time bonus pick from last year just hit the DL for Lakeland. His keystone partner Scott Sizemore has missed a big chunk of the season with a broken bone in his hand. Danny Worth, another draft pick from last year who has been a defensive whiz for Erie is now missing time. And high ceiling shortstop Audy Ciriaco just went on the DL for West Michigan.

And while they are health now, both Ramon Santiago and Mike Hollimon missed time this season due to separated shoulders.

It must be something they are putting in the water at second base.

Ramon Santiago dislocated his shoulder on a diving play today and appears headed to the disabled list. I have to believe that Mike Hollimon would have his contract purchased to be the new utility infielder. At the same time, Lakeland second baseman Scott Sizemore is hitting the DL after injuring his wrist swinging.

The Santiago news is disappointing – and this is from someone who was stumping for Hollimon to make the team over Santiago this winter. Santiago had been playing better than I would have ever expected hitting 353/476/618 in limited playing time going into today. This afternoon he added another walk and one of the Tigers 3 hits. I know small sample sizes and all, but he’d looked very good.

Hollimon stuck in big league camp this spring until he had a sublaxation of his shoulder. He got a late start to his season. He’s not hitting for a lot of average with a 253/325/552 line, but he does have 12 homers and is a switch hitter.