The Detroit Tigers placed struggling reliever Ryan Perry on the disabled list and purchased the contract of Enrique Gonzalez from the Mud Hens. The diagnosis for Perry is bicep tendonitis.

The injury supposedly isn’t serious, but I get nervous about diagnoses like this. Zach Miner had elbow tendonitis which turned in Tommy John surgery. Bobby Seay’s early diagnosis was tendonitis before it becoming a rotator cuff issue. Fernando Rodney had bicep tendonitis which caused him to miss large swaths of 2007. Now sometimes nothing happens and everything is fine. But tendonitis diagnoses seem to beget more severe injuries.

As for his replacement, Gonzalez was signed as a minor league free agent and hung around fairly late into spring training. He’s been starting for the Mud Hens which means he can eat some innings (which could be helpful in the short term with Eddie Bonine being extended last night and unavailable for a few days).

If this had happened 3 weeks ago it likely would have been Jay Sborz or Robbie Weinhardt getting the call. Sborz though has struggled as of late and Weinhardt is working his way back from the DL.

In my opinion these are the hardest losses to swallow. On a night when the team had to have been tired they really did battle. They fought against a closer with an electric arm and tied up a game in the 9th. But then there was a failure. A failure of execution and of strategy. A game where it seems like the manager let his team down.

I wish that Fox Sports Detroit did a post game with Jim Leyland because I’d love to know the thinking in walking Ryan Garko to get to Nelson Cruz. I don’t always agree with Leyland’s decision making process, but I can usually see his side. In this case I don’t really see another side at all. I’m dumbfounded. Given the effort his team gave him in the top of the 9th, they deserved better.

Perhaps I’m making too much of the IBB. The win expectancy only went down 1% for the Tigers. It was actually the smallest WE event of the inning.

Of course Leyland wasn’t the one who walked Justin Smoak, or Nelson Cruz for that matter. Fu-Te Ni’s control has been poor this season (8 walks and 2 HBP in 6 innings). Ryan Perry has to make a better pitch with 2 strikes to Elvis Andrus. If Perry comes in and doesn’t get Garko out, I don’t have a beef with the manager. In this case though it seems like Leyland walked right into what Ron Washington wanted.

The downside is that I spent 3 paragraphs lamenting negative instead of talking about the top of the 9th inning, which was terrific. The at-bats were all solid. Don Kelly fanned but it took 7 pitches. Ramon Santiago had a 13 pitch at-bat that resulted in an out but had to certainly wear on Neftali Feliz. Austin Jackson was determined to not strike out for a 4th time and put the first pitch in play, and Johnny Damon fought off a couple pitches before getting a bloop hit. And of course Magglio Ordonez with the line drive to right to tie the game. Great stuff that should be remembered.

And we haven’t even mentioned Brennan Boesch’s debut which saw him hit a double and a single (and later make a baserunning mistake). We haven’t mentioned Max Scherzer who went 7 innings and fanned 7 in a quality start. There was quite a bit of good in this game, and the players deserved the same from their manager.

• It’s a quality start Scherzer because one of the runs was unearned and was the result of a charged error when Alex Avila used his mask to corral a ball.
• Avila did gun down both attempted base stealers.
• Scott Sizemore had a rough night at the dish with 3 uncomfortable looking strike outs. A pinch hitting appearance by Don Kelly may have spared him the sombrero.
• Ordonez looked a little off balance at times on the west coast, but he reached base 4 times.
• Miguel Cabrera’s 5 game double streak came to an end, but Austin Jackson’s 16 game strikeout streak and Johnny Damon’s 10 game hitting streak are still intact.

Jeremy Bonderman returned to the mound, health for the first time since before the All Star Break in 2007 and the results can only be described as encouraging. He retired the first 11 hitters he faced before struggling in the 4th inning. But the best news is that the slider was darting straight down like Bonderman slider of doom that we all know and love.

The pitch f/x data is a little inconclusive at this time. It misclassified the splitter and I don’t know that I trust the 4 seam versus 2 seam fastball splits either. While he got up to 93mph on the fastball a few times, he was usually a few ticks below that. But for those that watched the game, the slider was just nasty.

My only concern is that Bonderman’s velocity seemed to peter out a little as the game wore on. The hope is that this is just a matter of him rebuilding stamina. The graph below is of all the pitches the Gameday classified as a fastball (two-seam and four-seam are included).

That is just nitpicking an outing though where he only allowed 3 baserunners. Bonderman and Leyland were certainly pleased with the outing as well.

For one full turn through the rotation, Tigers starters have all pitched effectively. Granted, they haven’t face offensive juggernauts in the Royals and Indians, but there is reason for some optimism.

Other items from the game

• I like this version of Magglio Ordonez. He’s driving balls to all fields and getting the results that go with it.
• I like this version of Brandon Inge too. The one that is selective at the plate and is driving the ball to right center field with regularity.
• Very nice defense today all around. Adam Everett made a couple nice plays at shortstop and Miguel Cabrera continues to dig everything in the dirt.
• Ryan Perry got 4 outs and the save on 11 pitches. He looks like a different guy this year. The potential of last year is turning into results this year.
• The Tigers drew over 35K for game number 2 and I’d expect a similar sized crowd today. It’s great to see a full park, not just on Opening Day

With the deals for LaTroy Hawkins and Brandon Lyon it appears that the market for “back end of the bullpen pitchers who could potentially set-up or close” may be getting steep for the Tigers. And with that the club may turn to in house options.

Jason Beck spoke with Dave Dombrowski who said that a return of Fernando Rodney is unlikely calling it a “long shot.” More frightening though is that the team is viewing Joel Zumaya as a legitimate option for the closer role.

I’m on board with not sinking a lot of money into a bullpen. I think the Tigers have done a good job the last few years of mixing young guys, minor league free agents, and fringy closer material guys together the last few years. It’s a quantity over quality approach where you hope enough guys make it work each year.

But going into a season with Zumaya competing for the role of closer is a ridiculous gamble and yet another reason to question the clubs intention to compete in 2010. In 2006 Zumaya was incredible. He hasn’t been healthy or effective since then. The velocity is certainly still there, but the results haven’t been for too long to “count on him.”

Ryan Perry and the newly acquired Daniel Schlereth would like be competing for such a role as well so all the eggs aren’t in Zumaya’s incredibly fragile basket. Still, those other options are particularly assuring at this point in their career either.

Lynn Henning reports today that the Tigers and Blue Jays discussed Roy Halladay and the price would be Rick Porcello, Ryan Perry, and Casey Crosby. Essentially the top 3 arms drafted and signed in the last 2 years by the Tigers. It’s a very steep price that had me balking on first blush. But after a deeper dive and this trade looks a lot more interesting.

We know that Halladay would replace Porcello in the rotation. Let’s assume that there are 13 turns left in the season for either pitcher. Halladay averages 7 1/3 innings per start meaning he’d throw another 95 innings. ZiPS projections have him throwing 84 more innings. We’ll split the difference and call it 90.

Porcello doesn’t pitch as deep meaning he’d likely go about 5 1/3 innings per start or about 70 innings. The bullpen would presumably pitch the rest of those innings.

Halladay has  FIP of 2.74 this year and ZiPS has him at 3.13 the rest of the way. Porcello has a FIP of 5.33. We don’t know exactly which relievers would pick up those other 20 innings, but we’ll assume they have a FIP of 4.50. Multiplying it out, we could estimate that Porcello+pen would surrender 51 runs. Halladay picking up those innings would surrender 31 runs over that same span. That’s roughly a 2 win swing over 62 games which is pretty significant.

But the Tigers are a fairly low scoring team with a fairly solid pitching staff and defense, in other words a lower run scoring environment team. Beyond the Boxscore points out that context matters in these things. They used PythagenPat, and I’ll use Pythagorean but the same general principle applies. Right now the Tigers are a .537 or 87 win team based on their runs scored and runs against. They are pretty close to that based on actual record as well. They average 4.66 runs scored and 4.35 runs allowed. If you reduce their total runs allowed by 31 21 (edit: I screwed up the math…sorry) the team becomes a .553 or 89.7 win team.

Now 87 wins stands a pretty good chance of winning the division and getting in the playoffs, but it is far from a certainty. A 90-91 win team will have a very, very good chance at taking this weak division. With that sort of context it almost makes it harder to turn down this deal than it is to accept it.

The price is steep in terms of prospects and value. Porcello won’t be a free agent until 2015. Expecting him to be as good as Halladay is unfair, but expecting him to be an above average pitcher for cheap for 5 more years is reasonable and makes him valuable. Crosby has the stuff and stats that make prospect lovers drool, and he’s a lefty. Perry is a pen arm, quite possibly a good one, but not terribly difficult to replace.

The upside of getting Halladay is tremendous though, and they’d have him for another season (provided Halladay doesn’t invoke his right to demand a trade in the offseason) and he could be flipped at the trade deadline next year if the team isn’t in contention or at the very least he’d net 2 first round picks if he signed someplace else.

I’m not anxious to see Porcello or Crosby go anyplace, but this would be one of only a handful of scenarios where I would be willing to let them go.

UPDATE Again: Now it’s official. Bondo to the DL for continued rehabilitation.

UPDATE: While there still hasn’t been an official announcement from the team, it does appear that Jeremy Bonderman is hitting the DL. I’ll update with more as I know it.

The Free Press is reporting that Ryan Perry is not with Mud Hens and is believed to be on his way to Pittsburgh to rejoin the team. Perry was optioned down to make room for Jeremy Bonderman. Perry has to stay on assignment for 10 days unless he is recalled to take someone’s place due to injury. So if he’s coming back it means someone is going on the DL and it is likely Bonderman.

If Bonderman does hit the DL it will be interesting to see how the Tigers handle his rehab. Once he starts pitching for a minor league club he is limited to 30 days. Will they start him right away hoping he gets the velocity back in a month or do they wait a while?

The Tigers have made a decision, at least for the time being, to stick with Dontrelle Willis in the starting rotation. Jeremy Bonderman will head to the bullpen…for now. Keeping Willis in the rotation is probably the right decision if Bonderman is the other option. Of course I kind of agree with Lee that perhaps that pool should include Zach Miner. That doesn’t seem like an option the team is exploring at the moment though, so what can we take from this decision?

First of all, Bonderman isn’t ready. I don’t think there is a lot of questioning of this point. I don’t see him being able to rebuild his arm strength pitching in sporadic low leverage situations in the pen. My guess is he gets optioned to Toledo (assuming he clears waivers and agrees to it) to work in the rotation and hopefully get his velocity back. He’s in the pen now because they need another arm in the pen, and likely want to bring Ryan Perry back. But Perry has to stay on optional assignment for a minimum of 10 days.

As for Willis, it appears he is pitching just well enough (not necessarily good) to hang in the rotation. This will be another test. I guess the goodish news is that we get to see Dontrelle hit for the first time.

The move to make room for Jeremy Bonderman was the optioning of Ryan Perry to Toledo. I don’t think this is a bad move at all and it could be for no more than the minimum 10 days. The Tigers can’t continue with 6 starters and I think a decision on the rotation will be made after Dontrelle Willis’s next start. Someone will get bumped from the rotation which will then answer a question about the bullpen, and then Perry’s recall could be scheduled.

Gut wrenching losses are good fodder for second guessing (and page views). My thoughts and perspective on what happened last night (some of these may sound like a defense of decisions made or not made, that’s not necessarily the intent).

1. Why take out Edwin Jackson, he was pitching awesome? Edwin Jackson had been pitching awesome, until he lost his control. For those that hate pitch counts as a reason to pull a pitcher, you should love this decision. Clearly the 89 pitches weren’t the issue. It was the fact that after peppering the strike zone all night he started falling behind hitters.

2. Why only one batter for Bobby Seay? Leyland was playing platoon advantages. Look at the righties coming up after Snider. There wasn’t a lefty in sight. Seay did his job.

3. Why not Ryan Perry then? The popular belief is that this was too much of a pressure situation for a debut. I don’t believe it, and I don’t think Leyland does either. When Zumaya debuted it was in a hold situation. He’s not afraid of that at all. And really, if Perry comes in a blows it then how many question why he was brought into a pressure situation to debut? A ton. Most questioned when Rodney and Zumaya were brought into pressure situations when first returning last year, and they’d faced those situations before. No. The real reason was because at the moment Leyland views Lyon as his second best reliever behind Fernando Rodney.

4. Why use your second best reliever in such a high leverage situation? This is the better question, and one that stat heads have been hammering on managers for for years. But if it’s not the 9th you can’t use your closer for some reason.

5. Why leave Lyon out there in the 9th? I’ve got nothing. This was stupid. Even if you let him start the inning, when he continues to struggle why not go get him. Ridiculous.

Today’s roster decisions pretty much wrapped up nearly 2 months (and in some cases even more) of speculation. There is one spot yet to be decided. That will go to either Jeff Larish or Brent Clevlen, though the Tigers are reportedly in trade talks with the Pirates regarding Clevlen. (ironically, or at least coincidentally, such a trade would displace former Tiger Craig Monroe) But with 96% of the roster decided we shift our guessing from personnel to performance.

Rick Porcello

Certainly the most notable of the roster decisions was the installment of Rick Porcello into the rotation. The move is both controversial, and exciting at the same time. While I’m not generally a proponent of “rushing” pitchers I’m on board.

The downside of bringing Porcello up is that he may not be ready. The Tigers have invested substantially in Porcello and ruining him would be a disaster. They were very careful with his workload last year in an effort to try and keep him healthy in his first professional season.

But unlike Andrew Miller (who I did contest was rushed), Porcello has multiple pitches that are good enough for the big league level. He fanned fewer than 6 batter per inning, which isn’t good. But he did that as a 19 year old in High A ball and a power sinker that drove ball after ball into the ground kept his ERA at 2.66.

The low K-rate hurt Porcello in the eyes of PECOTA (6.52 ERA), which is certainly understandable and something that shouldn’t just be dismissed. I actually don’t know if PECOTA takes into account groundball/flyball ratios. But it’s also worth noting that Porcello’s ERA should benefit from an infield featuring Brandon Inge, Adam Everett, and Placido Polanco.

The other concern is workload. I’ve argued that if you’re concerned about innings accumulation why not use Porcello now instead of later in the season? A refrain I’ve heard is “the Tigers won’t shut him down if he’s effective and they’re contending.” I’m sorry, but I don’t see that as a concern. Porcello performing well and the Tigers contending would be wonderful news – not a negative.

It sounds like the goal is to have Porcello pitch about 160 innings and throw 100-110 pitches per game (a figure I’m confident they would work up to), which as Dave Dombrowski points out can be managed at the big league level as well as the minor league level.

And quite frankly, Porcello (aided by Bonderman’s injury) out pitched his competition. It’s a risk, but in a wide open division, it is a risk worth taking.

Zach Miner

Miner struggled considerably early in the preseason, and once his shot at starting was nearly eliminated, he turned it up a notch. Miner will probably bounce between the pen and the rotation throughout the season, as he has throughout his career. With Bonderman’s return looming, he’ll be pitching against Porcello to try and stay in the rotation.

Nate Robertson

Robertson’s spring was up and down. He started rough, turned in a couple of very good performances as he became more left handed, and then sprained his thumb. He struggled yesterday in the rain, but Jim Leyland said he wasn’t going to hold it against Nate. That may have kept Robertson on the team, but relegated him to the pen, a place where Robertson doesn’t feel comfortable.

Given the uncertainty in the rotation, having Robertson around, even just to potentially eat innings, is a move worth making. Part of me also wonders if Robertson in the pen is a Leyland/Dombrowski compromise. Where Porcello got to make the team to help the short leashed skipper, but the GM wasn’t ready to cut bait with Robertson.

Ryan Perry/Juan Rincon/Eddie Bonine

There are 3 very different stories here, but a common theme. Perry is last year’s first round pick. A pick at the time that seemed like one who could even bolster the Tigers pen last year. The fact he’s made the team as a reliever isn’t shocking because his exposure can be limited. Rincon is the NRI trying to regain his pre-2007 form as a very good set-up man. Bonine is a middling prospect who doesn’t have a clear role defined.

But the common theme, and one that has been evident in each of these decisions, is that they earned it on the field. Each of these guys were longshots for the team, and pitched their way in. For those who thought last year’s squad had too much of a sense of entitlement, this should be refreshing. Of the players cut, only Clay Rapada and Casey Fien would really have an argument, and even then it would be more of a discussion.

Now the flip side to this is that too much shouldn’t be placed into spring training statistics. But the decisions being made (with the possible exception of Robertson) aren’t being made because of contracts.

It appears the Rick Porcello and Ryan Perry will be breaking camp with the Tigers. Details are still thin beyond that. I’ll update as more information floats North. Also, Mike Hessman was placed on outright waivers and Ryan Raburn was optioned to Toledo. That leaves 29 players in camp including Scott Williamson, Brent Clevlen, Jeff Larish, Eddie Bonine, Juan Rincon, Zach Miner, and Nate Robertson battling for one spot in the rotation, a couple in the pen, and one on the bench.

UPDATE: Juan Rincon and Eddie Bonine are also in. Dane Sardhina and Scott Williamson were assigned to minor league camp.

UPDATE 2: Clay Rapada was optioned to Toledo and your second lefty in the pen is Nate Robertson. It’s down to Brent Clevlen and Jeff Larish for the last roster spot.

So…the pitching staff looks like this:

Rotation: Verlander/Jackson/Miner/Porcello/Galarraga (I’m guessing on the order to start the season)
Bullpen: Lyon/Rodney/Seay/Rincon/Perry/Bonine/Robertson

The Tigers announced that they have outrighted the contract of Macay McBride to Toledo. McBride is still trying to get health after Tommy John surgery last year and doesn’t really figure in the immediate plans. The outrighting does open up a spot on the 40 man roster though. There are three relievers not on the 40 man roster who look to be in contention for a spot on the 25 man roster. Ryan Perry, Casey Fien, and Juan Rincon are all making a favorable impression this spring and would require a 40 man spot. Is this good news for one of the trio? Is it a sign that the Tigers are about to make a trade for a starter to flush out the rotation? Or is it just a clerical move?

While the performances of the Tigers starters have been fairly unremarkable this spring, things are better at the back end of games. It looks like there are actual battles taking place, and in the favorable sense.

Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney, and Bobby Seay are locks for the pen leaving four spots open. Zach Miner is also a pretty solid bet, enough to pencil in at least. That leaves three spots open.

Joel Zumaya could alter that, but he is still dealing with issues with a neck cramp. He is apparently structurally sound, but he doesn’t feel good enough to throw yet. And today Jim Leyland said it was a gray area:

"I only say that because he really hasn’t pitched for two years," Leyland said. "If he had been pitching the last two years and then had a little setback like this, he might be able to get himself ready. But when a guy hasn’t pitched for that long, let me put it this way: It’s in the gray area now, unless something happens."

Now this may sound dire, but really, who was really planning on Zumaya prior to spring training? I also viewed him as a nice potential bonus.

So who are these candidates competing for the 3 spots? Ryan Perry, Casey Fien, Freddy Dolsi, Juan Rincon, Clay Rapada, Kyle Bloom, and Alfredo Figaro. In no particular order, the qualifications for each:

Ryan Perry

Certainly appealing with the 100mph fastball, and first round draft status, and the results to match so far this spring. 3.2 innings, 3 hits, 1 walk, and 4 K’s are nice. The next step is probably to get him involved early in a game against more starters.  Perry isn’t on the 40 man roster, which may work against him, or at least complicate things a little. But the Tigers are fairly aggressive in this regard and Macay McBride would likely be sacrificed.

Casey Fien

Fien was a late cut in last year’s camp due to his strike throwing ability. In his minor league career he only has 34 walks in over 160 innings. This spring he’s fanned 6 while walking none in 6 innings. He also isn’t on the 40 man, making it easy to assign him to Toledo. My guess is that’s where he starts, but would likely be a first or second choice if needed.

Freddy Dolsi

One of the incumbents, Dolsi has a couple things going for him. Big league experience, a good fastball, and a spot on the 40 man roster. Dolsi also isn’t walking guys with only one free pass in 4.2 innings, but he has given up 8 hits. Also likely headed to Toledo.

Juan Rincon

Rincon was signed as a minor league free agent and he’s doing exactly what the Tigers had hoped for. Rincon pitched a scoreless inning, his 8th of the spring today with 4 K’s and a walk. He’d also need to be placed on the 40 man roster, but I think he may be on the brink of making the team. Rincon hasn’t had success since 2006 so this may be fleeting. Might as well take advantage of it while it’s working.

Clay Rapada

Rapada stands a good chance of being the second lefty, if a second lefty is taken. Rapada also hasn’t walked anyone this spring, or been scored upon.

Kyle Bloom

Bloom only makes this run down because of his Rule 5 status. With a manager under the gun, Bloom really needed to impress to warrant a full year spot on the roster. He’s given up 6 runs in 4.1 innings and allowed 8 baserunners. Relievers can get hammered with numbers in such small sample sizes, but Bloom had little room for error. His spot on the 40 man roster will likely be used to add Fien or Perry or Rincon.

Alfredo Figaro

Figaro seems to be making an impression, especially after 3 scoreless innings in a spot start today (after Porcello was scratched for a fingernail issue – no biggie). Figaro has been a starter in the minors, but could relieve at the big league level. I was skeptical when he was added to the 40 man roster after some struggles when being promoted to Lakeland at age 23. But this spring he hasn’t allowed a run or a walk. Probably still a long shot, but doesn’t he have to be in the mix?

Rick Porcello - cr Roger DeWitt

It’s another one of those rites of the offseason, the Baseball America top 10 list. The list itself is available to anyone, but for additional information (like scouting reports) you need to be a subscriber.

As for the list, here it is:

1. Rick Porcello, rhp
2. Ryan Perry, rhp
3. Cale Iorg, ss
4. Casey Crosby, lhp
5. Jeff Larish, 1b/3b
6. Wilkin Ramirez, of
7. Scott Sizemore, 2b
8. Cody Satterwhite, rhp
9. Dusty Ryan, c
10. Guillermo Moscoso, rhp

Usually when the list comes out I look back to the previous year’s list to see who stayed and who left. Hopefully the list changes because guys graduate and lose prospect status. In the Tigers case there are only 4 players carrying over from the ’08 last. As for the other 6? Only one graduated and that was Matt Joyce.

Yorman Bazardo and Francisco Cruceta flamed out. Danny Worth and Mike Hollimon had their development hindered due to injuries. Brandon Hamilton struggled in West Michigan, and while he’s still a prospect he’s no longer in the top 10.

Ryan Perry - cr Roger DeWitt

The flip side of guys losing status is that some other earned their way into the top 10. Wilkin Ramirez built on a strong spring training and exploded for AA Erie. Guillermo Moscoso had an outstanding season, and Dusty Ryan played himself into the Tigers 09 plans. And Ryan Perry and Cody Satterwhite were new draftees who cracked the top 10.

So it’s not that the Tigers system is without talent – guys who stand a decent chance to play at the big league level. What it lacks is enough players who could excel at the big league level.

Toledo 1 Rochester 6
This one only went 5 due to rain. Mike Hollimon homered and Jeff Larish and Timo Perez doubled. Chris Lambert allowed 6 runs on 6 hits in 5 innings despite only 1 walk and 7 K’s

Binghamton 11 Erie 0
Danny Worth and Lou Ott both went 2 for 3. Lauren Gagnier didn’t make it out of the 3rd inning before allowing 9 runs.

Binghamton 0 Erie 1
Casper Wells, Deik Scram, and Santo De Leon had the only hits and Jeff Frazier had the only RBI. Danny Christensen pitched 6.1 innings of 3 hit ball. Casey Fien got the last 2 outs.

Wisconsin 5 West Michigan 8
Chris Carlson and Joe Tucker each had 3 hits. Jordan Newton and Justin Henry each had 2 hits. Kyle Peter singled and walked 3 times. Alfredo Figaro surrendered 4 runs on 10 hits in 5 innings. Scott Green got the save with a scoreless inning including a hit and a strikeout.

Sarasota 17 Lakeland 10
On a night when the Flying Tigers score 10, my first player of note is a guy who didn’t get a hit. Ryan Strieby’s six game homer streak was snapped. Mike Bertram did hit 2 homers and drove in 6 runs. Adam Frost also homered and doubled. Most of the pitching was really bad. Cody Satterwhite struck out the side int he 8th and Brandon Timm pitched a scoreless 9th. That’s noteworthy since he isn’t a pitcher.

Oneonta PPD

GCL Braves 4 GCL Tigers 6
Ryan Perry made his debut and he struck out the side in the 8th inning. Luis Palacios led the attack going 4 for 5 with a double and 3 RBI. Luis Angel Sanz pitched out of the pen, but allowed just 1 hit, and no walks while fanning 5 in 4 shut out innings.