We recently took a look at the Tigers team defense through the eyes of David Pinto’s Probabilistic Model of Range. As Pinto wraps up this season’s numbers, he calculated the PMR behind each pitcher. Not much went right for Nate Robertson this year, and it is little surprise that his woes were reflected in the PMR numbers as well.

The table below is a combination of Pinto’s PMR work and batted ball data from Fangraphs.

2008 PMR by Pitcher

Nate Robertson had the 7th lowest rate of balls in play converted to outs in Major League baseball. Now Robertson wasn’t particularly unlucky – at least in regard to his fielders letting him down. His defense only made 2 fewer plays than expected behind Robertson. Robertson also posted one of the lowest expected DER’s in baseball as well.

What is unexpected is why that rate is so low. Looking at his batted ball stats, they aren’t remarkable in any way. His line drive rate isn’t high, his infield fly rate isn’t low. His ground ball and fly ball rates are consistent. Yet his expected DER is a recipe for disaster. Is it that Robertson was especially unlucky in that a disproportionate number of balls were hit to locations where nobody could get to them (save the “over-the-fence” jokes, those aren’t in these stats).

Meanwhile, Armando Galarraga was on the opposite end of the spectrum. He had a high expected DER, plus his defense helped him out to the tune of 16 plays. Kenny Rogers gave up a fairly high line drive rate, so his struggles aren’t at all surprising. Justin Verlander was hurt by his defense to the tune of 4 plays, but hardly was that the main source of his struggles.

But back to Robertson, I don’t know what to make of the data. Sometimes it feels like a cop-out to chalk things up to luck, and I saw Robertson struggle – especially in the second half. His peripherals did slip with Nate fanning a few less hitters and walking a few more, but those shifts paled in comparison to the .343 batting average on balls in play. If he was giving up line drives all over the park, it would be easier for me to chalk things up to a lack of stuff. That wasn’t the case. It truly does seem like the opposition managed to “hit-em-where-they-weren’t” with remarkable consistency last year.

The Bill James Handbook is always one of the first baseball books to come out each year. It’s not a riveting narrative by any means and it consists largely of tables of numbers. But there are always some interesting pieces and there seems to be something new every year. Last year it was the Young Talent Inventory. This year it is a bullpen analysis. They sit alongside managerial stats, baserunning stats, and the Fielding Bible awards. But one of my favorite sections is the leaderboard.

I’m not going to copy a bunch of leaderboards for you here. That might be kind of tedious and boring for everyone, and it would definitely be a copyright violation. But I will point out some Tiger related items that are either interesting, or surprising, or noteworthy.

• Despite coming back from a horrific shoulder injury, and ending the season early, Joel Zumaya still let the AL with 18 pitches thrown over 100MPH. Brandon League was next closest with 4. Fernando Rodney even managed 2 over the century mark.
• Speaking of fastballs, Justin Verlander’s 93.6 average was 6th in the AL and Kenny Rogers’ 85.2 MPH heater was slower only than Tim Wakefield’s.
• Armando Galarraga threw a slider 38% of the time which was the highest rate in the AL.
• Despite Verlander’s struggles, his .377 slugging percentage against was good enough for 8th best.
• Rogers and Nate Robertson both ranked in the top 5 in GIDP/9. Just think how bad things would have been if they hadn’t had so many twin killings.
• Edgar Renteria was 4th in SS pivot percentage. Renteria also had the 2nd highest batting average against left handed pitching with the 7th highest batting average at home. If only the Tigers faced lefties at home more often…
• Curtis Granderson continued his maturation by taking the 8th highest percentage of pitches and seeing the 5th most pitches per plate appearance.
• Placido Polanco struck out less per plate appearance than anyone else in the AL, but it didn’t help him in run production where he had the 8th lowest RBI percentage (5.96)

With a disastrous season completed it is time to head into the offseason. Given the gravity of the collapse, you know with the high payroll and the last place-edness, there is probably a tendency to overreact and second-guess. While a deep dive analysis is definitely called for, there is also some inaccuracy being bandied about. With that in mind, some thoughts as we head into what will likely be a tumultuous winter.

Dave Dombrowski did not abandon his philosophy

I’ve heard this one frequently. The common thread is that Dombrowski abandoned his pitching first philosophy in favor of “buiding a slow pitch softball team.” Dombrowski has always believed in stock piling young pitching and using it as the building blocks of a team. Whether that entails using the pitchers on his own team, or trading it to fill needs, he’s always used young pitching.

The Renteria trade was made in large part for defense, not to build a slow pitch slugging softball team. The benefit of Renteria was that he was to be a 2 way player. The problem was that while Renteria was a defensive upgrade, it was a small upgrade (Guillen was -12 in 1074 innings at short in ’07, Renteria was -9 in 1173 innings in ’08 according to Fielding Bible +/-) and his offense was beyond absent the first half of the season. The trade failed, there’s no question, but it wasn’t a change of philosophy.

As for Cabrera, defense was never a part of the issue. It was entirely an offensive move. But it was also an opportunity that doesn’t come along that often. Players like Cabrera don’t grow on trees and to add an elite player at age 25 is largely unheard of. It is the kind of big splash move that Dombrowski has been known for throughout his career.

As for the rest of the staff, they were far worse than could have reasonably been expected. While Willis struggled last year and was trending down, to get nothing from him was unexpected to everyone. Robertson was never a top of the rotation starter, but was the epitome of a solid back of the rotation guy. To compete, along with Kenny Rogers, for worst starter in the league wasn’t part of any reasonable plan. And then there was Verlander adding a run and a half to his ERA. That your entire starting rotation would be injured or significantly underperforming wasn’t part of any plan or strategy and more than could have been mitigated.

The window isn’t closed

I should adjust that and say “the window isn’t closed if Ilitch doesn’t want it to be.” The boss could go all Huizenga and say “cut-cut-cut” but I don’t see that happening. This team was positioned to go for it in both 2008 and 2009. Because 08 was crap doesn’t mean you need to abandon 09 as well. The offense should be good again next year, and it isn’t unreasonable to think that the pitching staff will see some return to non-crapitude next year.

In terms of trading, they’d be selling low on most of the players that fans want to see traded. They could probably get a nice return for Armando Galarraga, Curtis Granderson, and Miguel Cabrera, but who really wants to see them shopped?

Don’t overreact

Everybody wants speed, defense, and starters, and bullpen arms. Some better defense would be nice, but don’t sacrifice offense completely. The Tigers are ready to make that move at third with the Inge pronouncement. It means they can’t afford to do it at both catcher and shortstop.

The bullpen was awful, but 5 years and $75 million to fix it will be money poorly spent. As for starters, is it worth a second round draft pick to sign a Derek Lowe type starter? (it might be if the Tigers can get the draft pick compensation for Renteria)

I’m not saying do nothing. Clearly this team has holes at multiple positions and another starter and a 2-3 new bullpen arms are clearly needed. But I still think, and perhaps this is naive, but good teams can have bad seasons. This team wasn’t as good as we thought going in, and it isn’t as bad as we think right now. I’ll borrow this conclusion from Nate Silver’s piece in Baseball Prospectus ($) and quote sparingly because it is premium content.

Bad years happen to good clubs. The key for the Tigers will simply be not to panic, nor to try and save face with guys like Renteria and Willis whose projections don’t really warrant it. The Tigers need to budget somewhere between $15-$20 million for perhaps three pitchers next year, but with the contracts of Renteria, Todd Jones, Kenny Rogers, and Ivan Rodriguez all coming off the books, they can easily afford to do so without increasing payroll.
…
This has been a frustrating season in Detroit, but hardly a disastrous one in terms of the club’s long-term fortunes. There have been several pleasant surprises this year in Galarraga, Joyce, and Brandon Inge’s smooth transition back to the catcher position*. From top to bottom, the Tigers still rank somewhere in the top ten in the major leagues in terms of their overall talent pool, and they should be on track to return to contention with some relatively common-sense fixes.

*The Inge part was written on August 14th before Inge completely collapsed down the stretch offensively and started allowing a PB per game.

Links of note, or stuff I find interesting, or stuff I think you might find interesting

• Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers: MLB Rumors – MLBTradeRumors.com – Tim Dierkes continues his series by looking at the Tigers
• From a Uni Watch interview of NY Times’ Yankees beat writer Tyler Kepner: UW: Who is the most… – Bless You Boys – Shef is a wee bit particular about the cut of his uniform.
• THE BOOK–Playing The Percentages In Baseball – Team UZR numbers from MGL. The ones in the post are combined with 05-07 data, but just the 08 numbers are included in a comment. The Tigers are a couple runs below average.
• Ryan maturing beyond his experience | tigers.com: News – Getting to know Dusty Ryan
• BaseballAmerica.com: Majors: Organization Reports: Detroit Tigers: Tigers Final Report – BA rates Cale Iorg as the Tigers best position player. Wilken Ramirez and others may take some issue with that. Iorg had a decent season, but not the best. Porcello got the nod for top pitcher.
• Whitecaps promo video – In a season like this, this video is a nice reminder that baseball is supposed to be fun.
• Who are the best fielding pitchers – Hint: his name rhymes with country music legend Kenny Rogers
• Remembering Tiger Stadium – New blog about the corner.

Kenny Rogers career as a Tiger appears to be over. Jim Leyland announced that Rogers will be shut down for the rest of the season.

Rogers has been getting hammered with regularity, and it looks like this is the end of the line. The move will cost Rogers $250K to $750K in incentives, but given his recent performance I don’t think that played a large role.

While Rogers won’t be making anymore starts, it would be nice if he could be brought into a game for a batter during the final weekend so the fans could say thanks for 2006.

The Tigers are going to be mixing and matching down the stretch it appears. Kenny Rogers will miss his next start. This is due to hip pain that is believed to be rendering him completely ineffective. (Yes, the old guy has a bad hip. The jokes seem to easy to make, but too easy to ignore also.)

In his place will likely be Nate Robertson. I think it’s a safe assumption that this has more to do with needing a starter than Robertson pushing his way back.

Also, it looks like Dontrelle Willis may get a start. Willis and Freddy Garcia will pitch against each other in another simulated game on Tuesday, and the decision will probably be made at that point.

If Willis is healthy and the mechanical tweaks are in place, then by all means start him. I know it would be nice to wait until everything is perfect, but Willis needs to be in game situations, and at this point it won’t cost the Tigers anything. But the key is if he’s healthy.

Between the knee and more recently the forearm, you have to question if Willis has been healthy at any point this year. Sending an injured pitcher out there to see what you’ve got doesn’t help anyone.

Links of note, or stuff I find interesting, or stuff I think you might find interesting

• Tigers to try Larish at third – Jeff Larish heads to the Arizona Fall League to work on fielding the hot corner. Smart move since he's effectively blocked at first base. At the very least maybe he increases his trade value. On another note, how sad is it that AFL assignments are about the only thing we have to look forward to.
• Tigers’ Kenny Rogers placed on waivers, could be traded | Freep.com | Detroit Free Press – He could be traded, but I doubt it.
• Put the Tigers’ Bullpen in Cruz Control? – Bless You Boys – Ian touts Juan Cruz as an affordable and attractive option for the Tigers as a bullpen free agent target.
• The Immaculate Inning: What’s Wrong: Justin Verlander – What's wrong with Justin Verlander? Maybe nothing.
• Detroit Tigers Thoughts: How to Fix a Bullpen, Part 6 – One more from Eddie. He's really been on a roll, plus my link posting thingy hasn't been working so I'm way behind. But this is part of a 6 part series on how to build a bullpen. Great reading.
• Detroit Tigers Thoughts: Skelton Again – Eddie gets biomechanical and shows that James Skelton slight stature may actually increase his durability instead of inhibiting it – as many have worried about.
• Detroit Tigers Thoughts: Projected Elias Rankings – Eddie has cracked the Elias Free Agent ranking system. Pudge is looking like he could end up being a B type free agent. If he does that means one less draft pick lost in the trade, thus making the trade look better.
• Tiger Tales: A Detroit Tigers Blog: Where does Galarraga’s rookie season rank in Tigers history? – Lee looks to see how Armando Galarraga's season stacks up against other rookie campaigns in Tiger history.

Kenny Rogers was pitching a mighty fine game on Friday when he decided he needed a little something different. So he “invented” a cutter during the game.

“It keeps guys a little honest,” said Rogers, who ran into trouble in the eighth, allowing a walk, a hit-batsman, and a two-run double to Jose Lopez . “I just didn’t use it in the eighth. “But it’s a pitch I can throw inside to righties. It makes the plate that much wider.”

I find this pretty remarkable on a couple fronts. First that he tries out a new pitch in a game and is able to command it and be successful with it. Second, and more surprising, is that he hasn’t tried it out in the past. For a guy that hasn’t been relying on “stuff” for quite some time and has been looking for every edge he can get (insert pine tar joke here) I can’t believe he wouldn’t already have it in the arsenal if he could command it.

A cornucopia of Tigers news that has come out today. Jim Leyland is prepared to make some changes, even if it means hurting some feelings. The skip says:

“So I’m going to change some things around here and see what happens. I think that’s important. As I said, I don’t know if it’s going to work. I don’t know if it’s going to make people angry, but that’s the way it goes.

“I don’t mean for this to sound negative, I don’t mean it that way, but this isn’t about feelings. It’s beyond worrying about egos. This is about doing the job. I’m going to try some stuff.

“We have a great group of guys and I think they’ll understand. They might not agree with it, but the manager has to do what he thinks is best for the team. If this team is what I think it is, they’ll go along with it.

“We have to get it rolling somehow,” Leyland said. “I’m not really a 40-game guy, or a June 1 guy, but you can’t just sit there when it’s not working.

“My general manager has given me a hell of a team here. I haven’t really coached it to the right flow. But I’m not going to sit still. I don’t want to be patient to a fault.”

One thing you can’t accuse Leyland of this season is being complacent. He’s shuffling batting orders, moving people aroudn the diamond defensively, giving pitchers different roles in the pen. The hope is that something sticks. Some of the moves coming out are:

Miggy drops to 6th

Jim Leyland dropped Miguel Cabrera to the sixth spot in the lineup. I have to believe that this move is more psychological that strategic. Let me rephrase that. I believe that the implications of this move will be more psychological than strategic.

Lineup configuration has a pretty limited impact on run scoring. Cabrera hasn’t put up his typical numbers, but has still been an offensive force. He has struggled with RISP to the tune of a 639 OPS. If there is a thought that he’s pressing, perhaps moving him down will take pressure off of him to drive in runs. I don’t really believe any of that and chalk it up more to sample size issues. I’m somewhat supported in this because he has a .903 OPS with men on.

Still odd that Cabrera is productive and gets moved from 5th to 6th while Sheffield was allowed to flounder at the 3 spot.

Rotation flip-flop

With the off day yesterday Leyland is flipping Jeremy Bonderman and Kenny Rogers in the rotation. I’m guessing the move is 2-fold. First, Rogers struggled a little in his last start against the M’s. He allowed 8 hits, 3 walks, and 4 runs in 5.1 innings on May 21st. Second, Rogers is a Cy Young pitcher in Oakland. In 45 career starts he is 25-4 with a 3.46 ERA.

Supposedly there is another move coming with the pitching staff.

Rodney and Zumaya news

The news out of Lakeland is encouraging for Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney. Both will be embarking on rehab assignments soon. Rodney is likely heading to Toledo while Zumaya will stay in Lakeland to start.

I’d guess that Rodney is probably a week or two away if he is heading to the Mud Hens. But given his problems last year and this year, I’d still be surprised if he made it through the rest of the season.

Regardless, barring setbacks both would be joining the Tigers within a month or so because a rehab assignment can only last 30 days.

PREGAME: We’ll see if it is the home whites that were the problem for the Tigers as they embark on their first road trip of the season. They’re taking on the Red Sox who have already played in 3 countries and on 2 continents this season.

In addition to a 6 game losing streak the Tigers also will be dealing with a ring ceremony and a lot of hoopla. Edgar Renteria will bat lead off as Jim Leyland returns to the opening day lineup. Renteria and Boston don’t really mix so this should be interesting.

On the mound today will be Kenny Rogers and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Rogers was solid his last time out allowing just 2 runs in 6 innings but was out dueled by Brian Bannister. Matsuzaka is making his 3rd start of the year and has a 2.31 ERA with 15 K’s in 11.2 innings.

Game Time 2:05

DET @ BOS, Tuesday, April 8, 2008 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

POSTGAME: Go ahead. Panic. Do whatever you have to do. I feel sick. I have nothing encouraging to say. Just more of the same.

PREGAME: It’s another afternoon tilt for these two teams. For the Tigers it will be Kenny Rogers making his season debut. Last year Rogers battled a blood clot, and later some elbow soreness before finishing the season strong for the Tigers. In 5 September starts he posted a 3.56 ERA, but with an uncharacteristically high 13 walks and 3 homers in 30 innings.

For the Royals it will be Brian Bannister. During the offseason he did a Q & A with MLB Trade Rumors and talked about facing the Tigers (this is just a portion of his response, click through for the full answer):

I think the most important thing when preparing to face a lineup of this caliber is to be realistic and to recognize how they have been playing recently, because confidence level is everything with a good offense. If you look at good lineups, they tend to be extremely streaky, but their cold streaks will be much shorter than their hot streaks over the course of a season. During the hot streaks, teams and opposing pitchers tend to be intimidated by their offensive prowess, and games can be blowouts. In contrast, during the cold streaks they can seem to be a totally different team because they have very high expectations placed on them by the fans and media, and when they’re struggling, it tends to snowball.

Last year Bannister was a much tougher pitcher on the road, posting a .598 OPS against as opposed to .828 at Kauffman Stadium.

Game time 1:05

POSTGAME:
Not exactly the kind of start that we’re looking for here in Detroit. I’ve gotta be honest, I was at work and didn’t see the game. Just listened in to the call, but I didn’t come away happy regardless. Most of the Tigers bloggers have done their wraps and said their pieces and I’ll trust their judgment. At least Rogers had a solid outing. He breezed through the 2nd and 3rd innings before needing some extra pitches and falling behind in the count. Still, he did his job. Zach Miner showed promise, but ultimately surrendered two runs.

I’m disappointed, but not at all worried. And just responding to some of the things said in the comments (and I don’t mean this as an attack on anyone, so don’t take it personally if I happen to disagree):

• I’m surprised to see so many of you think tomorrow’s game is a lost cause. Yes, Zach Grienke is good but the Tigers did knock him out in the first inning in a game at Comerica last year. And yes, Jeremy Bonderman finished the year horribly in 2007, but he’s been known to be pretty good to. Let it play out before waving the white flag.
• Yes, the offense is better with Curtis Granderson in it, but I don’t think that was the problem today. Nobody hit (except Renteria). I don’t think Granderson makes that much of a difference in a game where Polanco, Ordonez, Sheffield, Guillen, Cabrera… couldn’t even muster solid contact. Give some credit to Brian Bannister.
• In terms of the Tigers patience, the Tigers made Bannister throw 3.86 pitches per batter. That’s actually a hair above average. Bannister appeared so efficient because he didn’t allow baserunners, and he got two double plays. Granted, tell me if I’m wrong, but it seemed that Bannister was mostly throwing strikes. There’s only so much taking you can do in that situation. Also, Jim and Dan mentioned a couple occasions where Tigers hitters missed on very hittable pitches.
• Jacque Jones has had 2 bad games. I’m not expecting huge things from Jones, but I do expect he won’t go all season without getting the ball out of the infield. I think it’s a little early for a whipping boy, but I am anxious for the Tigers to face a southpaw.

The Winter Meetings kicked off today. My fellow bloggers have already commented on how it will be a fairly quiet meetings for the Tigers. That’s what happens when you fill your biggest needs within a couple weeks of the end of the season.

Still, I don’t think the Tigers are done this offseason. While I don’t expect big moves from Detroit during the Winter Meetings, there is still work to be done. The Tigers still have a number of players to tender contracts to. There are currently only 16 members of the team who are signed, and likely to be on the 25 man roster. At least two of those players could be in for a substantial payday.

Curtis Granderson is entering his last year of indentured servitude. The Tigers could sign him for half a million and be done with it. However, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a 5 year deal which would buy him out of his arbitration years and first year of free agency. That would gain the team cost certainty through 2012 which also coincide with the years where he figures to be in his prime.

Nate Roberston is entering his 2nd year of arbitration eligibility. I’d expect that the Tigers ink him to a 2 or 3 year deal. Again, the Tigers would gain cost certainty. And with a two or three year deal it’s unlikely that Robertson would be blocking anyone. The Tigers will need a starter to replace Kenny Rogers next year, so even if a young pitcher steps up there will be room.

The last player who could see an extended deal is Justin Verlander, but I don’t see it this year. Verlander is still signed through 2009, so there is less incentive to lock him up.

The other reason I don’t think they are done, is because the offseason has it’s share of mixed messages. The Tigers big move was the Edgar Renteria trade which has win-now written all over it. And despite what you think of Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones, one year contracts for the pair of aging players indicate that the team is not only in win-now, but win-this-year mode.

But that can’t be it right? If the Tigers are are working with urgency, why have 2/5ths of the rotation be so questionable? Counting on Rogers for more than 150 innings given his age is risky. Counting on a combination of Andrew Miller/Chad Durbin/Yorman Bazardo, and who ever else is risky as well. Don’t the Tigers have to mitigate the risk of these two pieces of the rotation by bringing in somebody? It doesn’t have to be a Carlos Silva (although I wouldn’t complain). A risky pitcher coming off an injury willing to take a one year deal would be perfect. Then you’re looking at a group of pitchers to fill the back end, without relying on any one.

Dombrowski seems content to have a competition for that 5th spot, but I’m more worried about the combination of the last 2 spots.

And then there’s the bullpen. The Tigers are a little boxed in with a number of players out of options (Jose Capellan, Yorman Bazardo, Chad Durbin, Jason Grilli, Francisco Cruceta). Joel Zumaya shouldn’t be counted on this year, even if the doctors are confident, because it is unchartered territory with this injury. I like the addition of Cruceta as a low risk, high upside guy.

But Cruceta becomes a high risk guy if it means the Tigers don’t pursue other options. Fortunately, the Tigers are at least doing due diligence. Jason Beck reports that the Tigers are meeting with Octavio Dotel’s agent tonight. And they are expected to talk with Latroy Hawkins people and Beck reports that Dombrowski has been involved in preliminary trade discussions. Of course the Tigers have to move Chris Shelton in the next couple days, so maybe it’s nothing.

Kenny’s contract

The details of Rogers’ contract have been revealed. He will make an $8 million base salary with performance incentives for innings pitched. He will receive $250,000 for hitting each of the 150, 160, 170, and 180 inning plateaus. He will also receive $500,000 for reaching 190 and 200 innings meaning the total value could reach $10 million.

When I looked at what the Tigers should pay Rogers it appears that the Tigers did well. They are at the higher end, but only marginally so, in terms of guaranteed dollars. But even with the incentives the Tigers should come out ahead. If Rogers is able to pitch 200 innings the $10 million could be a steal. Given the intangible value that the team sees in Rogers this seems like a win.

The Tigers shored up their starting rotation and bullpen by signing Kenny Rogers and Fancisco Cruceta. Both pitchers were signed to one year deals. I don’t have terms yet of either deal.

Rogers we know about, but Cruceta appears to be signed largely on his performance in the Dominican Republic. It sounds similar to last year’s trade for Yorman Bazardo who was impressing in the winter leagues.

Cruceta, 26, spent the 2007 season with Triple A Oklahoma in the Texas Rangers organization. In 25 outings (five starts), he compiled a 3-0 record, 3.02 ERA (65.2IP/22ER) and 70 strikeouts. Cruceta has appeared in 13 games with Cibao in the Dominican Winter League, posting a 1-1 record, 1.08 ERA (16.2IP/2ER) and 25 strikeouts. He is fourth in the league with 25 strikeouts.

“Cruceta has pitched very well this winter in the Dominican Republic,” Dombrowski said. “He is a quality prospect and we expect him to compete for a spot in our bullpen in 2008.”

Cruceta has compiled a 63-49 record and 3.77 ERA (943.2IP/395ER) in 214 appearances (145 starts) during his career at the minor league level. He briefly saw action at the major league level with the Cleveland Indians in 2004 and Seattle Mariners in 2006.

It certainly doesn’t hurt to take a flyer on the guy, and maybe the Tigers have latched on to some cheap talent.

To make room Chris Shelton and Timo Perez were DFA’d. Neither was a surprise as neither were likely to make the Tigers roster next year. Chris Shelton was out of options and was destined to be moved anyways. You often hear of meteoric rises, but meteors are subject to gravitational forces and come crashing to earth as well. That was the Shelton meteor ride.

I’ll have more later

Conference Call Notes

• Kenny’s negotiation process: There was never a lot of change in his position. He wanted to make sure that he represented what was done best for himself and his family. The change in representation had more to do with Rogers intent to stay in Detroit than anything to do with Boras. He was trying to simplify the process so he could communicate directly with the team. If Rogers had decided to become a free agent in the true sense, Boras would still be his agent.
• There are performance incentives in the contract.
• Going to the winter meetings they will still look at opportunities to get better, but they are comfortable with the roster and they don’t see any “gaping” needs.
• Cruceta throws in the mid 90′s and the Tigers look at him as some who can help the team.
• The team is aware of Cruceta’s suspension but the team is confident that Cruceta learned from the experience and that Cruceta can help the team.
• The Tigers were never close to signing any other starting pitchers while the Rogers negotiations were on-going.

There was quite a bit of drama for a Friday evening as Kenny Rogers fired Scott Boras. Rogers sent an email to all GM’s (wouldn’t that be a neat distribution list to have?) saying that he was now representing himself. This seems like great news for the Tigers who were hoping to resign Rogers. Kenny sent an email last night to Jason Beck saying that he still hopes to be a Tiger in 2008.

I do expect Rogers to sign by Monday at the latest, but am a little curious why he emailed all the GM’s. (**wild blog speculation ahead**) Perhaps he was just trying to confirm the discussions that Boras had had with various clubs and the various offers that had or hadn’t been made. Maybe Rogers distrusted Boras, or didn’t think he was accurately representing his wishes. Or maybe he’s just trying to understand his market for his own sake. (**end wild blog rumor mongering**) And it probably doesn’t matter. By his own admission Rogers wants to be hear, and the Tigers haven’t shown to be cheap when it comes to players they want.

Regardless, Jon Paul Morosi gives us yet another free agent pitcher name to consider in the form of Hiroki Kuroda. Kuroda is from Japan, but is a free agent so there is no posting fee like the Red Sox incurred with Daisuke Matsuzaka. Kuroda is a 32 year old right hander who stands 6′ 1″

I honestly don’t know much about Kuroda, but did find 2 assessments. One is from MLB Trade Rumors which had this report

One number to remember here: 300, as in 300 feet to left and 300 feet to right. That’s the stadium Kuroda spent 10 years in, and still he managed to post a sub-2.00 ERA in 2006 and go 13-6. What could he do in Petco with 67 extra feet to left to play with? Tak says that at the least, he’s an innings eater.

Meanwhile Baseball Prospectus had him rated as a top tier Japanese free agent and had this to say:

He’s not Daisuke Matsuzaka, but Kuroda a very strong power pitcher with a low to mid-90s fastball and a wicked forkball. In addition, he features a plus shuuto, something like a screwball, as well as an effective change. Even if he only pans out as a third or fourth starter in the majors, he will give you innings, work deep into games, and he should be fairly consistent start to start.

For an asking price of $7-8 million over 3 years he certainly would rate as intriguing at this point.

I still think that the Tigers should look to add someone beyond Rogers and had been thinking of Bartolo Colon or Kerry Wood. A couple of risky guys with some upside who could be had for 1 year deals. Give said pitcher the last spot in the rotation. If it doesn’t work out you haven’t invested a lot and Andrew Miller is still waiting in the wings. It also means that if Miller isn’t ready, or Rogers can’t go a full season (both decent possibilities) it is another layer of depth.

At the end of last season Kenny Rogers future involved one of two paths:  retiring or resigning with the Tigers. The quote was “It’s either here (Detroit) or nowhere.”  But last week despite Rogers’ decision to play again, Scott Boras said they were going to explore options.  Now it appears that the sides are having a tough time finding middle ground with Rogers/Boras rejecting two Tigers offers.  The question then becomes how high should the Tigers go to bring back Kenny?

How to estimate value

At The Book blog, there is a method for valuing players.  I encourage you to read all the comments, where various players and their recently signed/or prospective contracts are discussed.  The short of it though is that on the free agent market, one win above replacement  will cost $4.4 million. So how many wins above replacement would Rogers bring next year?

First let’s establish replacement level.  A replacement level player is someone who can be had for the league minimum.  Think a non roster invitee to spring training.  That level of performance using this method is described as a .380 pitcher.  But what does this mean?  Take for example a situation where on average 4.5 runs are allowed per game.  A pitcher that allowed less than that would have a winning percentage (using the pythagorean or pythanport equations), and a pitcher that allowed more would have a losing winning percentage.  In the case of a .380 pitcher in a 4.5 run environment, it would mean they’d allow 5.9 runs per game.

Using Bill James projections for 2008 Rogers’ FIP is 4.57.  Fielding Independent Pitching is calculated based on strike outs, walks, and homers – the things a pitcher has control over – and is a solid indicator of true talent level.  As a comparison, the AL FIP last year was 4.51 so for all intents and purposes Rogers projects to be an average pitcher (.500) next year.

The same projections have Rogers making 23 starts and amassing 145 innings which is the equivalent of 16.1 9 inning games.  As an average pitcher you’d expect him to win half of those games and so he’d be worth 8 wins to the team. (Note:  these wins are not the same totals as what you’d find in the traditional won-loss record.  This is looking at contribution to the team)  If the Tigers didn’t spend the money on Kenny, and went with the bare minimum the replacement level pitcher with his .380 winning percentage would account for 6 wins in that same playing time.

So Rogers is 2 wins above replacement.  If you stop there one could say that based on these projections Rogers should make $9.2 million next year(2 x 4.4  and .4 more for the league minimum).

Adjustments

The former was the scientific part, not it’s time for the non-scientific adjustments.  The first adjustment is for age.  Rogers is 43 and is coming off an injury filled season.  Should he be valued the same as a player in his mid thirties?  Probably not. Health and the ability to maintain performance are real and justified concerns. The typical age adjustment is to knock off a .5 win.  That would put his value at $7 million.

Another way to guard against this, is to add performance incentives.  If Rogers is healthy and productive for a full season, I think he should be rewarded.  The projection has him at 23 starts.  If you put in a kicker for 30 starts, how much should it be?  If you assume 6.3 innings per start, and he makes 7 more starts, that would be 44.1 more innings.  That works out to an additional .6 wins over a replacement pitcher.  And the cost of .6 wins is 2.6 million.

But at the same time the Tigers probably value Rogers more than most other teams.  Right or wrong, Dombrowski & Leyland like the familiar.  There is a comfort level with Rogers on the staff.  The other pitchers seem to respond to having Rogers around.  Valuing this contribution is difficult.  While personally I think this type of thing tends to be overblown among fans and the media, I do think some of this effect exists and don’t want to discount it.

Bottom Line

When the news came out about Boras testing the market I called it posturing and at the time made a guess that I just pulled out of nowhere:  1 year – 7.5 million, 1 million bonus for 20 starts, 1.5 million bonus for 30 starts.  That actually doesn’t look to bad right now and the only real difference is I’d give him a little more in incentives while keeping the base the same.

As a base salary Rogers should probably make $7-8 million after adjusting for age and giving him a bonus for the extra value he brings to the team.  If he makes 20 starts his total contract should go to $9 million.  If he makes 30 starts his total contract should go to $11.5-$12 million.