When Jim Leyland said he was going to put Justin Verlander on a strict, but undisclosed pitch count today, who thought it would be 120? It probably is a few more than Jim would have liked, but when you have a pitcher as in control as Verlander was today, 120 doesn’t seem to be a stretch at all.

By the numbers

The numbers really do tell a story of how dominant Verlander was today:

• 23 – The number of consecutive hitters Verlander retired after Torii Hunter singled in the first inning.
• 82% – The rate at which Verlander racked up first pitch strikes
• 9 – The pitches that Verlander threw from the stretch. It’s safe to say he wasn’t pitching under duress.
• 4 – The number of times Verlander went to a 3 ball count. He didn’t walk any batters.
• 3 – The hits allowed.
• 72% – Verlander’s strike rate for the day

That’s pretty much as good as it gets and not a moment too soon.

Everybody else

The bottom of the order led the charge today and 5 runs proved to be more than enough. The bottom 4 in the lineup went 5 for 14 and set the table for Austin Jackson who does what Austin Jackson does. He gets a hit or strikes out. Five ABs, 3 hits, 2 strike outs. It really is incredible.

• Alex Avila reached base 3 times. I’m not sure what was more impressive, his rope double down the line or the 8 pitch walk he worked in the 8th.
• Brennan Boesch continues to hit and picked up another double. Boesch has been mashing first pitch fastballs since getting called up. This time though he jumped on a first pitch slider. It was nice to see the adjustment for the youngster.
• It was unfortunate that Jose Valverde had to come in today. He’s now appeared in 14 of the team’s 26 games and is on pace to make 84 appearances this year. It would certainly help with his goal of 74 saves, but that is a heavy workload.

Tigers 5, Angels 1

A journey through some links that will update us on the Tigers walking wounded, that will put limits on Justin Verlander’s workload, and other odds and ends including bullpen usage and Alex Avila.

Injuries

Word out of Lakeland is that Zach Miner is preparing to enter pseudo game action as part of his rehab assignment. Even with no set backs that would likely but him a couple weeks away from being ready to join the Tigers. And while the bullpen has been overworked and a fresh arm would be helpful, the bullpen has also been pretty effective.

Adam Everett is expected to be back any day now after taking batting practice yesterday. That could prove timely as Jim Leyland is still concerned about Scott Sizemore’s ankle and if he wants to spell him at second, he would have Ramon Santiago as an option with a healthy Everett manning short.

For those that were hoping to get a look at Brent Dlugach, he has cooled off at Toledo as his BABIP hasn’t been able to sustain his strikeout rate (31 K’s in 86 PA’s).

On the minor league injury front the Tigers are hopeful that Jacob Turner’s soreness is an adjustment to a pro pitching schedule and nothing ominous.

Verlander’s workload

With Justin Verlander throwing over 120 pitches in each of his last two starts and not seeing the sixth inning in either, it turned out to be a clubhouse topic yesterday. Leyland says he is going to put a limit on Verlander in his next start regardless of the inning. Verlander acknowledges that he needs to be more efficient but says pitch counts are overrated.

We’ll see what happens with this limit. I’m sure that Leyland doesn’t want Verlander getting hurt on his watch, but he also had him throw over 120 pitches in 6 of his last 8 outings last season. Verlander has always proven up to the task, I just doubt that Leyland is going to reign him in too much.

The rest

• Tiger Tales: A Detroit Tigers Blog: Tigers Bullpen Bailing Out Starters
• Beck’s Blog: Tigers’ reactions on the Span play
• Tigers catcher Alex Avila is focusing on good at-bats to break slump | – MLive.com
• Quantifying catchers: The best and the worst defenders – Bless You Boys
• Morning prowl: Tale of two centerfielders – Bless You Boys

While the Ryan Raburn error was terribly frustrating. And the Scott Sizemore error made you think, “c’mon, they’re not even in that God forsaken dome and this stuff keeps happening.” This game was all about Francisco Liriano.

Liriano spotted the fastball to both sides of the plate. He froze Tigers hitters with back door sliders and had them flailing at regular sliders that dove at their back foot. Six of the Tigers ten strike outs were off the backwards K variety. They couldn’t even muster a swing.

Credit where credit is due, Liriano put on a clinic an deserved to win.

On the other side Justin Verlander was better. He didn’t walk a batter not named Jim Thome while fanning 7 including victimizing Justin Morneau 3 times. He deserved to get out of the 6th were it not for the Raburn error, but it would have been his final batter regardless with a pitch count of 121.

At least this time out it wasn’t stuff lacking, just efficiency.

• On a night when 12 of the 27 Tigers outs came on strikeouts, Austin Jackson didn’t have a single one while drawing the only walk, thus ending the 20 game streak. I love baseball irony.
• Johnny Damon kept the hit streak alive.
• Fu-Te Ni came into a bases loaded situation and got a come backer to the mound and managed to go 2.1 more innings. He picked up 2 more walks and benefitted from a wide strike zone (just ask Denard Span) but the end result is that he was able to “reset” the bullpen by staying out that long.
• Eddie Bonine didn’t have it after being so effective and critical to the team’s win on Saturday.
• For all the talk about the Twins doing things the right way and manufacturing runs and what not, they did strand a lead off triple with their 2-3-4 hitters up. I’m just saying, it happens.
• Disappointing to see the Tigers play so poorly on defense regardless. In addition to the 3 errors I’d argue that Ordonez didn’t take a great route to Span’s triple. I don’t know if he would have got it, but it appeared if he angled back he may have had a better shot.

Twins 2, Tigers 0

The Tigers finally got to a starting pitcher early. Unfortunately Detroit’s starting pitcher wasn’t on his game. Fortunately the Tigers bullpen earned a cumulative save getting the last 12 outs.

The Detroit lineup had no trouble getting to Joe Saunders. They hit, they moved people over, the bunted, the sacrifice flied, and they scored in the first 3 innings. When Adam Everett hit the flyball to left to plate a run it was the first 2nd inning run Detroit has scored this season.

On the other side Justin Verlander had significant issues controlling his offspeed pitches leading to all sorts of trouble. Mostly in the form of rapid pitch count escalation. The irony is that Verlander often becomes fastball happy when in trouble. Yet when the other pitches weren’t working for him against the Angels, he stayed away from the heater. Only 17 of his first 35 pitches were fastballs.

Credit needs to go to the Angels also who fouled off 35 pitches for the night.

Joel Zumaya, Phil Coke, Ryan Perry, and Jose Valverde did a terrific job locking down the game once Verlander was lifted. Seeing Zumaya come out for two innings the night after throwing 33 pitches makes me nervous given his history, but he did fine. As a group they allowed 5 baserunners and fanned 5 in 4 innings.

The bigger news in all this though is probably the injury to Carlos Guillen. Guillen’s hamstring popped as he was coming around to score (pictured above) and couldn’t make it to home plate. Guillen is hitting the disabled list, which is an unfortunate annual tradition.

• The Tigers didn’t strikeout until Gerald Laird fanned with 2 outs in the 7th inning.
• It looked like Austin Jackson’s strike out streak may end, but he went down swinging in his 4th at-bat.
• Miguel Cabrera doubled in his 5th straight game. The last Tiger to do it was Frank Catalanotto in 1999.

Read the post game wrap up: Guillen holds hammy, Tigers hold on

Tonight Detroit plays their last game in Anaheim this season. If they win it would bring the road trip to 3-4. If they lose it means they will have dropped 3 straight series. Justin Verlander takes the mound for the Tigers and Joe Saunders goes for the Angels.

Verlander is coming off his best start of the season, a season that has seemed to go pretty badly so far. But then you look at his total numbers: 8.8 K/9, 3 K/BB, .87 HR/9, 1.35 WHIP. The numbers aren’t great but they don’t beget an ERA approaching 7 either. The problem is that half of the runners (50.5%) who get on base end up scoring. As that rate works it’s way towards a more normal ~70% that ERA will drop.

Saunders has done a good job limiting base runners this year (17 hits and 4 BB’s in 19 innings) but he’s been taken deep 4 times and he’s only fanned 8. Tonight’s lineup has a cumulative 320/383/464 line in 108 plate appearances against Saunders.

That lineup is:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Damon, DH
3. Ordonez, RF
4. Cabrera, 1B
5. Guillen, LF
6. Inge, 3B
7. Laird, C
8. Sizemore, 2B
9. Everett, SS

It appears that Justin Verlander seems to have found some of that rhythm that had proven so elusive this season. Unfortunately the Tigers bats couldn’t muster enough against Ryan Rowland-Smith and the Tigers dropped their 3rd game in a row.

Verlander had a shaky first inning, but then found a groove and became the first pitcher to see the 7th inning. Along the way he picked up 6 K’s and did a nice job mixing his pitches. During the game that appeared to happen by design, in the post game though Verlander said it was out of necessity because he was struggling to command the fastball.

Even struggling with his command he managed to throw the heater for a strike 69% of the time.

Offensively the Tigers couldn’t generate many rallies against Smith. There were too many balls popped up, and the balls that were hit hard didn’t find grass (Raburn and Guillen lined balls to left field and Cabrera drove two shots to Ichiro). The Tigers offensive highlights amounted a Magglio Ordonez blast and a pinch hit RBI for Johnny Damon.

• Unusual play in the first when both managers came out to ask the umpire to overturn a call on Carlos Guillen’s run-saving error.
• It looked like Milton Bradley was out on his stolen base attempt, but Ramon Santiago seemed to catch the ball behind Bradley instead of in front of the bag and the umpire couldn’t see the tag.
• Verlander became the first Tigers pitcher to get outs in the 7th inning. The next “first” will be the first non-Venezuelan born Tiger to homer this year.

The Tigers have taken two turns through the rotation. The first was largely encouraging. A Max Scherzer 1 run effort and reasons for hope from Dontrelle Willis and Jeremy Bonderman highlighted the pass with rough but acceptable outings from Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello. This second turn though…oh man.

Using the Baseball Musings Day by Day Database it is easy to see how the starters have fared over the last 5 games and it isn’t pretty. The 12 walks issued over the 5 starts is borderline acceptable. But outside of that it is a matter of picking which number is most troublesome. Is it the 42 hits or the run-an-inning pace or the fact that strikeouts are few and far between? Or do you go with the result of all the ineffectiveness which is a bunch of short outings?

This isn’t rocket science. The starters have to pitch better. All of them. With only 4 of the hits being homers, there is some hope that the BABIP will drop. But the teams that the Tigers have faced (Indians/Royals/Mariners) are far from offensive juggernauts making this all the more concerning.

The third pass through the rotation begins today with Justin Verlander. The Tigers are the only team to not have a starter record an out after the 6th inning. That needs to change and the sooner the better.

The Detroit Tigers and Justin Verlander have agreed to a 5 year contract worth $80 million according to Larry Lage of the AP. Verlander was at the Tigers Lakeland facility working out earlier today. The deal locks up the ace through the 2014 season and it bests the 5 year $78 million deal that Felix Hernandez received earlier this month.

A long an expensive contract for any player, and pitchers in particular, is a risk. But there are certain players that are worth a gamble. Verlander had 2 years until free agency where if he continues to perform he would have netted a deal well in excess of $100 million. The Tigers secured his first 3 years of free agency at what will hopefully be a bargain.

The Hernandez comparisons are especially germane, and if you like the King Felix signing the Verlander one is just as palatable. Verlander has been at least an $11 million pitcher in each of his 4 years and with his big season in 2009 he has produced $80 million in value for the Tigers. He was likely to make about $8-9 million in 2010 regardless. He guaranteed himself an additional 4 years and $70 million.

While I think that Hernandez should get more because he is 3 years younger and if I had to pick one, I’d pick Hernandez, both are exceptional pitchers with similarly impressive resumes. I don’t want to get into a Felix/Justin debate. They are both studs and a difference of a couple million over 5 years isn’t really a difference at all.

I am concerned about Verlander’s workload the past few seasons, and last year in particular. He didn’t seem to suffer any consequences though and the hope is that JV is one of those freaks. The upside is that the contract expires when Verlander is only 31 meaning that like Cabrera, the Tigers have locked him up for his peak years.

Photo credit:  Hueytaxi on flickr – photo taken February 3rd, 2010

Baseball Prospectus released the first run of their 2010 PECOTA numbers this week, which makes for much fun in the stat-centric baseball community. PECOTA differentiates itself from many of the other predictors by finding pools of comparable players to make their predictions. While the numbers are premium content (and can also be found in the printed annual), I will share a few of the items that jumped out at me about the Tigers.

The system puts the Tigers at 78-84 which is 3rd place in the AL Central behind the division leading Twins (83-79) and the second place White Sox (80-82). The Tigers run prevention is pegged at 2nd in the division at 776 runs allowed; the White Sox are first at 751. But an offense full of questions from young and old players alike is expected to be the division’s worst.

At an individual level the system predicted two pairs of players to be remarkably similar. On the pitching side of things Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are expected to be nearly identical. Scherzer gets a slight edge in ERA (.12 runs better) and strikeout rate while Verlander gets the edge in walk rate and home run rate, but these differences are remarkably small.

On the offensive side of things, Alex Avila and Gerald Laird are projected to be equivalent players offensively. They are within 5 points of BA, 2 points of OBP and 1 point of SLG of each other. Before discrediting the system altogether keep in mind a couple things. First, Avila of course shined in his brief stint with the Tigers, but those numbers were better than what he’d posted as a minor leaguer and shouldn’t be used as his benchmark going forward. Second, there is very little data to draw from in predicting Avila, and there isn’t a great collection of similar players to project from. Avila’s similarity score is 37, which is quite low.

Of course predictions are just predictions. Things will deviate, but there is some solid methodology behind many of the numbers. BP’s defensive metrics aren’t their strong suit and the Tigers could have some more upside on the run prevention end of things. But a slightly below .500 record does “feel” right for this team right now. So does a shot at the division if a few things fall the Tigers way (Jackson/Sizemore/Robertson/Bonderman/left field). Such is life in the AL Central.

The good news for Tigers fans is that according to Jon Paul Morosi a couple of sources say it is unlikely that the Tigers trade Miguel Cabrera this week. Salary relief would of course be nice, but Morosi raises another good point. Trading away a team’s best player likely sends the wrong message to the player you’d like to keep around.

Verlander, who is on the verge of receiving a big raise in salary arbitration, is on track to become a free agent after the 2011 season. If the Tigers trade prominent players such as Granderson and Jackson, they may have a difficult time convincing Verlander to remain in Detroit for the long term.

It’s quite the conundrum for the Tigers. The cash saved by in the future by moving Miguel Cabrera or Curtis Granderson would certainly help with the flexibility to sign Justin Verlander but it would also make the climate less attractive. Verlander will get his money regardless so he’ll be able to look for a favorable situation.

As for what it will take to sign Verlander, we can start by looking at some rumors swirling around Felix Hernandez who like Verlander is 2 years removed from free agency. Ken Rosenthal reports that the two sides are far apart on a long term deal where the starting point was a 4 year $45 million offer.

Hernandez should command more because as good as Verlander has been, King Felix has been better and is 3 years younger. Still, it would take probably $20 million to buy out Verlander’s 2 arbitration years and then $15-18 million per year after that at least.

Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera and starting pitcher Justin Verlander were voted the Tigers’ top positional player and top pitcher of 2009, in a vote conducted by the Detroit Independent Baseball Scribes.

Cabrera and Verlander each received 20 first-place votes. Cabrera had a .942 on-base percentage plus slugging average (OPS), which was good for fifth in the American League. He had a .324 batting average, 34 home runs and 103 RBIs. All four categories led the Tigers. His Ultimate Zone Rating of 2.8 ranked second of all AL first basemen.

Verlander led baseball in strikeouts with 269 and was tied for first in the AL with 19 wins. He had an ERA of 3.45. He led the Tigers in all three categories.

Voting was also conducted in two other categories: breakout player of the year, for the player experiencing his first taste of success in the major leagues; and most improved, for the player who made the biggest step forward from the previous season.

Rookie right-handed starting pitcher Rick Porcello earned 18 of 20 votes for the breakout honors. The 20-year-old completed the season with a 14-9 record, 3.96 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 170 2/3 innings. Also receiving votes were right-handed starting pitcher Edwin Jackson (1) and utility player Ryan Raburn (1).

Verlander was also named comeback player of the year, rebounding from a 2008 season which saw him go 11-17 with a 4.84 ERA and 163 strikeouts. He received 11 of 20  votes in the category. Also receiving votes were right-handed closer Fernando Rodney (3), Raburn (2), Brandon Inge (1), Brandon Lyon (1), Jackson (1) and utility infielder Ramon Santiago (1).

Voting was conducted during the week of Nov. 9-15.

Established in 2005, the Detroit Independent Baseball Scribes now has 21 members who write primarily on the Internet. Its member writers are affiliated with such online organizations as MLive.com (Booth Newspapers), SB Nation, ESPN.com, Freep.com, Bleacher Report, Yardbarker, MVN, Fan Blog and Fan Huddle.

The Detroit Independent Baseball Scribes include:
Bless You Boys — Ian Casselberry
Daily Fungo — Mike McClary
DesigNate Robertson — Scott Rogowski
Detroit Tigers Den — Austin Drake
Detroit Tigers Weblog — Bill Ferris
Eye of the Tigers — J. Ellet Lambie
Fire Jim Leyland — Mike Rogers
It’s Just Sports — Patrick Hayes
Jamie Samuelsen’s Blog — Jamie Samuelsen
Mack Avenue Tigers – Kurt Mensching
MLive’s The Cutoff Man — James Schmehl and Scott Warheit
Old English D — Jennifer Cosey
Roar of the Tigers — Samara Pearstein
Spot Starters — Blake Vande Bunte
Take 75 North – Matt Wallace
Tigers Amateur Analysis – Erin Saelzler
Tigerblog — Brian Borawski
Tiger Geist – John Brunn
Tiger Tales — Lee Panas
Tiger Tracks — John Parent
Where have you gone, Johnny Grubb? –Greg Eno

Debating Saturday’s starter, some news on a tiebreaker playoff game, and more from MLB’s punishment roulette wheel.

Figaro?

Alfredo Figaro has been tabbed for the start in a very key game on Saturday. This is the product of a rainout on Monday and a very young starter who’s arm warrants careful protection.

Rick Porcello simply isn’t an option for this game. Nick Blackburn, also bumped by Monday’s postponement is going on 3 days rest. Quite frankly the Twins don’t have the same type of investment in Blackburn’s future that the Tigers do in Porcello’s. This isn’t a matter of saving Porcello for the rest of the season, it is a matter of not being foolish with an elite talent.

Now Rob Neyer has suggested that the Tigers would be better served by pitching Verlander on short rest on Saturday and giving Porcello the start on Sunday. This is much more palatable from a workload perspective. Verlander looks to be a freak in terms of  his ability to handle high pitch counts…so far. We’ll know more by how he responds next year.

Leyland has a tight rope to walk in terms of planning for the next week and planning for the next day with his pitchers. As slim as the lead is, the Tigers are still in the lead. The Tigers are likely to need a horse to pitch 1 of the last 2 games, and possibly games on Tuesday and Wednesday as well. Verlander and Porcello can’t pitch every game and Jackson’s reliability is questionable. So what is assured to be the lowest pressure game that the Tigers face from here on out? Saturday.

I understand that a win today makes everything easier from here on out and if the Tigers were in the Twins position the Tigers would have to absolutely go Verlander-Porcello and hope for the best. The Tigers slim lead does afford them some flexibility.

Regardless, Figaro isn’t going to lose the Saturday game for the Tigers. He won’t be left in long enough to let things get out of hand and if things take a bad turn Zach Miner will be in quickly. With a rested bullpen the Tigers are well equipped to handle the task.

Tiebreaker Tuesday

If a tiebreaker game is needed, the Twins would get to host it. The trouble is that tiebreaker would normally be played on Monday and the Vikings are hosting the Packers that night. If the game is needed it looks now like it would be played at 4 p.m. on Tuesday.

The Yankees have until 1 hour after their playoff opponent is known to decide if they’d like to start the series on Wednesday or Thursday.

Suspension Roulette

Jeremy Bonderman was suspended for plunking Delmon Young in Thursday’s game. This really isn’t surprising. Warnings had been issued and Bonderman threw at Young intentionally. I am surprised he’s appealing the suspension.

What’s surprising (in an equity sense and not a MLB’s randomized punishment structure sense) is that Jose Mijares who everyone admits threw at Adam Everett with intent and unprovoked received no suspension. Whatever MLB.

With four Tigers on the roster, it only seems fitting that we have a game thread. Plus it gives me a chance to catch-up on some All Star related linking.

Most newsworthy and relevant is the fact that Evan Longoria is out with an infected ring finger. Michael Young will start at third base, but maybe this gets Inge to the game earlier? Chone Figgins was added to the roster in Longoria’s place.

Curtis Granderson is having a grand time and blogging each day at the Stew. Last night Grandy thought the Home Run Derby was a little long and tonight he hopes to schmooze the Pres and set up a meeting with the Secretary of Education.

Justin Verlander is sort of available tonight. According to Beck’s Twitter Verlander is only available if needed.

This also gives me the opportunity to link up some Home Run Derby coverage. I intended to do an open thread for that as well. But I got home a little later than planned and I turned on the television to see Inge getting his complimentary Gatorade and Joe Buck joining the broadcast. Not really what I was hoping for on either account. But I don’t think it’s possible for Inge to have a better outlook on the night. Kurt did come away impressed with Scott Pickens arm though.

Edwin Jackson took on the Army in a Playstation battle. Video is below:

So which Tiger will do the best tonight? Inge? Grandy? Jackson? Verlander? Or are you just hoping nobody gets hurt?

Because you can’t spell Porcello without 2 O’s, 2 L’s, an R, a C, an E, and a capital P…The Tigers are taking advantage of an offday in the schedule and the All Star to skip Rick Porcello’s turn in the rotation. Porcello is done until after the All Star Break and while the rotation hasn’t been set (with a 4 day break the Tigers could start anyone the first game back) it is conceivable that Porcello doesn’t pitch until the 24th for a double header. I doubt they would wait that long, but it is possible from a scheduling standpoint.

Jim Leyland was clear that this had nothing to do with Porcello’s recent struggles and it was part of the plan. I do believe him in this regard, but the fact that Porcello isn’t exactly on a roll made the decision that much easier.

I think Leyland has a done a wonderful job managing Porcello’s workload. I believe the plan going into the season was to have him throw about 175 innings. At the half way point he is at 87 inning putting him on pace for 174. And in game pitch count totals have been kept well under control.

The rest of the rotation is:

• Tue: Verlander
• Wed: French
• Thr: off
• Fri: Jackson
• Sat: Galarraga
• Sun: Verlander

Verlander on Sunday presents an interesting situation with his All Star status, but it shouldn’t be a problem for him to pitch 1 inning the following Tuesday and with 13 pitchers on staff there should be no reason for any pitcher to pitch more than 1 inning.

Porcello to miss turn in rotation

The Tigers are sending 3 representatives to the All Star game, and maybe one more. Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson, and Curtis Granderson were all named to the AL All Star Game. Brandon Inge still has a chance ( a slim one) to get on the team if the fans vote him in.

Verlander and his MLB leading strikeout total was pretty much a lock for the squad and was likely voted in by the players. Jackson has had an exceptional first half, but a startling lack of run support has held him to 6 wins despite a sterling ERA. Still, the players thought enough of him to include him on the squad.

Granderson was a bit of a surprise. He’s had better seasons, but Lee points out that he is on pace for a 30-30 season and an argument could be made that he is the second best centerfielder in the AL. Granderson was also a player selection.

That brings us to Brandon Inge. I’ve stumped for Inge already and Jim Leyland opined that Inge should be backing up Evan Longoria. Instead that duty went to Michael Young who is on par with Inge offensively, but atrocious defensively. Defense doesn’t typically get you into the ASG though. But Inge does have a chance if he can beat out:

• Chone Figgins (which he should)
• Ian Kinsler (who has a beef that he should be starting at 2nd)
• Carlos Pena (AL homer leader)
• Adam Lind

So let’s see if we can get 4 Tigers to the All Star Game and Vote Inge. What works against him though is that he was the 2nd best third baseman, but it’s not as cut and dry that he’s the best of these 5.