To make room for Dontrelle Willis the Tigers are sending out Juan Rincon.  Rincon pitched his way onto the team with a very good spring, but with a rough start to the season the Tigers deemed him most expendable. Brandon Lyon has been just as bad, but he’s owed more, and frankly has been better in recent years than Rincon and therefore has a better chance of contributing.

Given the fact that Ryan Perry threw 42 pitches tonight, I thought that was a signal that he was going to be optioned down. Instead he just won’t be available for a couple nights.

Today’s roster decisions pretty much wrapped up nearly 2 months (and in some cases even more) of speculation. There is one spot yet to be decided. That will go to either Jeff Larish or Brent Clevlen, though the Tigers are reportedly in trade talks with the Pirates regarding Clevlen. (ironically, or at least coincidentally, such a trade would displace former Tiger Craig Monroe) But with 96% of the roster decided we shift our guessing from personnel to performance.

Rick Porcello

Certainly the most notable of the roster decisions was the installment of Rick Porcello into the rotation. The move is both controversial, and exciting at the same time. While I’m not generally a proponent of “rushing” pitchers I’m on board.

The downside of bringing Porcello up is that he may not be ready. The Tigers have invested substantially in Porcello and ruining him would be a disaster. They were very careful with his workload last year in an effort to try and keep him healthy in his first professional season.

But unlike Andrew Miller (who I did contest was rushed), Porcello has multiple pitches that are good enough for the big league level. He fanned fewer than 6 batter per inning, which isn’t good. But he did that as a 19 year old in High A ball and a power sinker that drove ball after ball into the ground kept his ERA at 2.66.

The low K-rate hurt Porcello in the eyes of PECOTA (6.52 ERA), which is certainly understandable and something that shouldn’t just be dismissed. I actually don’t know if PECOTA takes into account groundball/flyball ratios. But it’s also worth noting that Porcello’s ERA should benefit from an infield featuring Brandon Inge, Adam Everett, and Placido Polanco.

The other concern is workload. I’ve argued that if you’re concerned about innings accumulation why not use Porcello now instead of later in the season? A refrain I’ve heard is “the Tigers won’t shut him down if he’s effective and they’re contending.” I’m sorry, but I don’t see that as a concern. Porcello performing well and the Tigers contending would be wonderful news – not a negative.

It sounds like the goal is to have Porcello pitch about 160 innings and throw 100-110 pitches per game (a figure I’m confident they would work up to), which as Dave Dombrowski points out can be managed at the big league level as well as the minor league level.

And quite frankly, Porcello (aided by Bonderman’s injury) out pitched his competition. It’s a risk, but in a wide open division, it is a risk worth taking.

Zach Miner

Miner struggled considerably early in the preseason, and once his shot at starting was nearly eliminated, he turned it up a notch. Miner will probably bounce between the pen and the rotation throughout the season, as he has throughout his career. With Bonderman’s return looming, he’ll be pitching against Porcello to try and stay in the rotation.

Nate Robertson

Robertson’s spring was up and down. He started rough, turned in a couple of very good performances as he became more left handed, and then sprained his thumb. He struggled yesterday in the rain, but Jim Leyland said he wasn’t going to hold it against Nate. That may have kept Robertson on the team, but relegated him to the pen, a place where Robertson doesn’t feel comfortable.

Given the uncertainty in the rotation, having Robertson around, even just to potentially eat innings, is a move worth making. Part of me also wonders if Robertson in the pen is a Leyland/Dombrowski compromise. Where Porcello got to make the team to help the short leashed skipper, but the GM wasn’t ready to cut bait with Robertson.

Ryan Perry/Juan Rincon/Eddie Bonine

There are 3 very different stories here, but a common theme. Perry is last year’s first round pick. A pick at the time that seemed like one who could even bolster the Tigers pen last year. The fact he’s made the team as a reliever isn’t shocking because his exposure can be limited. Rincon is the NRI trying to regain his pre-2007 form as a very good set-up man. Bonine is a middling prospect who doesn’t have a clear role defined.

But the common theme, and one that has been evident in each of these decisions, is that they earned it on the field. Each of these guys were longshots for the team, and pitched their way in. For those who thought last year’s squad had too much of a sense of entitlement, this should be refreshing. Of the players cut, only Clay Rapada and Casey Fien would really have an argument, and even then it would be more of a discussion.

Now the flip side to this is that too much shouldn’t be placed into spring training statistics. But the decisions being made (with the possible exception of Robertson) aren’t being made because of contracts.

It appears the Rick Porcello and Ryan Perry will be breaking camp with the Tigers. Details are still thin beyond that. I’ll update as more information floats North. Also, Mike Hessman was placed on outright waivers and Ryan Raburn was optioned to Toledo. That leaves 29 players in camp including Scott Williamson, Brent Clevlen, Jeff Larish, Eddie Bonine, Juan Rincon, Zach Miner, and Nate Robertson battling for one spot in the rotation, a couple in the pen, and one on the bench.

UPDATE: Juan Rincon and Eddie Bonine are also in. Dane Sardhina and Scott Williamson were assigned to minor league camp.

UPDATE 2: Clay Rapada was optioned to Toledo and your second lefty in the pen is Nate Robertson. It’s down to Brent Clevlen and Jeff Larish for the last roster spot.

So…the pitching staff looks like this:

Rotation: Verlander/Jackson/Miner/Porcello/Galarraga (I’m guessing on the order to start the season)
Bullpen: Lyon/Rodney/Seay/Rincon/Perry/Bonine/Robertson

A couple of bullpen candidates have been trimmed from the big league camp. Freddy Dolsi was optioned to Toledo and Casey Fien was assigned to minor league camp. Fu Te Ni was also assinged to minor league camp.

The Fien move is a little surprising because he has pitched so well this spring, but as a young player not on the 40 man roster the Tigers may choose give a veteran like Juan Rincon a shot first. Of course Perry is in the same boat, young player not on the 40 man roster, but he’s also a first round draft pick.  Still I think Fien’s assignment means Rincon in particular is in a good position.

With Venezuela eliminated from the WBC, I’d expect some of the surplus outfielders to be cut very soon as well. Wilkin Ramirez is likely in the next round of cuts. After that it gets interesting between Clete Thomas, Ryan Raburn, Brent Clevlen, and Jeff Larish.

The Tigers announced that they have outrighted the contract of Macay McBride to Toledo. McBride is still trying to get health after Tommy John surgery last year and doesn’t really figure in the immediate plans. The outrighting does open up a spot on the 40 man roster though. There are three relievers not on the 40 man roster who look to be in contention for a spot on the 25 man roster. Ryan Perry, Casey Fien, and Juan Rincon are all making a favorable impression this spring and would require a 40 man spot. Is this good news for one of the trio? Is it a sign that the Tigers are about to make a trade for a starter to flush out the rotation? Or is it just a clerical move?

While the performances of the Tigers starters have been fairly unremarkable this spring, things are better at the back end of games. It looks like there are actual battles taking place, and in the favorable sense.

Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney, and Bobby Seay are locks for the pen leaving four spots open. Zach Miner is also a pretty solid bet, enough to pencil in at least. That leaves three spots open.

Joel Zumaya could alter that, but he is still dealing with issues with a neck cramp. He is apparently structurally sound, but he doesn’t feel good enough to throw yet. And today Jim Leyland said it was a gray area:

"I only say that because he really hasn’t pitched for two years," Leyland said. "If he had been pitching the last two years and then had a little setback like this, he might be able to get himself ready. But when a guy hasn’t pitched for that long, let me put it this way: It’s in the gray area now, unless something happens."

Now this may sound dire, but really, who was really planning on Zumaya prior to spring training? I also viewed him as a nice potential bonus.

So who are these candidates competing for the 3 spots? Ryan Perry, Casey Fien, Freddy Dolsi, Juan Rincon, Clay Rapada, Kyle Bloom, and Alfredo Figaro. In no particular order, the qualifications for each:

Ryan Perry

Certainly appealing with the 100mph fastball, and first round draft status, and the results to match so far this spring. 3.2 innings, 3 hits, 1 walk, and 4 K’s are nice. The next step is probably to get him involved early in a game against more starters.  Perry isn’t on the 40 man roster, which may work against him, or at least complicate things a little. But the Tigers are fairly aggressive in this regard and Macay McBride would likely be sacrificed.

Casey Fien

Fien was a late cut in last year’s camp due to his strike throwing ability. In his minor league career he only has 34 walks in over 160 innings. This spring he’s fanned 6 while walking none in 6 innings. He also isn’t on the 40 man, making it easy to assign him to Toledo. My guess is that’s where he starts, but would likely be a first or second choice if needed.

Freddy Dolsi

One of the incumbents, Dolsi has a couple things going for him. Big league experience, a good fastball, and a spot on the 40 man roster. Dolsi also isn’t walking guys with only one free pass in 4.2 innings, but he has given up 8 hits. Also likely headed to Toledo.

Juan Rincon

Rincon was signed as a minor league free agent and he’s doing exactly what the Tigers had hoped for. Rincon pitched a scoreless inning, his 8th of the spring today with 4 K’s and a walk. He’d also need to be placed on the 40 man roster, but I think he may be on the brink of making the team. Rincon hasn’t had success since 2006 so this may be fleeting. Might as well take advantage of it while it’s working.

Clay Rapada

Rapada stands a good chance of being the second lefty, if a second lefty is taken. Rapada also hasn’t walked anyone this spring, or been scored upon.

Kyle Bloom

Bloom only makes this run down because of his Rule 5 status. With a manager under the gun, Bloom really needed to impress to warrant a full year spot on the roster. He’s given up 6 runs in 4.1 innings and allowed 8 baserunners. Relievers can get hammered with numbers in such small sample sizes, but Bloom had little room for error. His spot on the 40 man roster will likely be used to add Fien or Perry or Rincon.

Alfredo Figaro

Figaro seems to be making an impression, especially after 3 scoreless innings in a spot start today (after Porcello was scratched for a fingernail issue – no biggie). Figaro has been a starter in the minors, but could relieve at the big league level. I was skeptical when he was added to the 40 man roster after some struggles when being promoted to Lakeland at age 23. But this spring he hasn’t allowed a run or a walk. Probably still a long shot, but doesn’t he have to be in the mix?

The Tiger announced the signing of Juan Rincon to a minor league deal today. Rincon will get an invite to spring training and will be given a chance to make the Tigers bullpen.

This looks to be a decent signing. Rincon was a stud in 2004 through 2006. But he was busted for steroid use. In 2007 and 2008 he saw his home run rate balloon. In 04 throuh 06 he allowed 9 homers total. He allowed 9 in 2007 and 8 in 2008.

Still, it’s a low risk move and the type of signing I’d hope the team would make several of as they try and build their pen on the cheap.

Juan Rincon » Statistics » Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball