Isn’t it something that we waited and waited to get the anticipated lineup together. First Granderson was injured, and then Sheffield and Polanco. And then everyone was set to come back and Carlos Guillen missed a couple games. Finally, on April 27th the 1000 run lineup took the field. And 8 days later on May 8th it’s been altered because it just wasn’t working. In that 8 day span was an off day and a sweep of the Yankees. Part of me can’t help but think it’s a little bit of an overreaction.

Now the Jacque Jones dismissal is a smart move and I applaud the relative swiftness of it. The Tigers gave him a month to do something, and it just didn’t happen. And this was with Jones facing almost exclusively right handed pitching. He only had 4 plate appearances against lefties, all of which result in strikeouts. His arm was as bad as advertised and Leyland respected his defense so little that he was always lifted for Ryan Raburn in late innings. If you can’t play defense and you can’t hit and you’re track record is marginal there is little to contribute and little reason to expect it to change. Jones amassed 5 line drives in his very brief Tigers career.

As for the “drastic” lineup move I hardly consider the swap of Carlos Guillen and Gary Sheffield to be drastic. The more drastic move is Gary Sheffield assuming left field duties. Sheffield had surgery to repair a torn labrum which you’d think would inhibit his throwing ability. But even odder is that the DH rotation will be between Sheffield and Ordonez.

Ordonez is an average fielder, and hardly a liability. There is talk about his bad knees, but in actuality he has 1 surgically repaired knee. The injury hasn’t appeared to be chronic and he isn’t as close to DH-dome as many make him out to be. While the semi-rest is probably a good thing, it does nothing to help the infield defense. An area of concern that could be remedied by rotating DH duties to Carlos Guillen (who does have bad knees) and Miguel Cabrera.

So like the Guillen-Cabrera switch, this realignment seems to be a reactionary move that solves little. The move was at Sheffield’s request because he thinks he can focus better by playing the field. That may be the case, but if he’s not healthy the focus part won’t make a big difference. Like Lee, I’m skeptical that it will result in an increase in his numbers.

Table of contents for The Cabrera-Willis Trade

1. Holy Freakin Crap
2. The Cabrera- Willis Trade – early returns
3. The 6 runs per game lineup
4. The New Tigers speak
5. Where should Cabrera play?
6. The Coda

Jim Leyland was quoted yesterday talking about how this deal and the players they acquired were like a presents under the tree. Well, now that we can open up the presents, it’s time to play with them. The common refrain is that the Tigers should play Miguel Cabrera at third base and move Brandon Inge. It’s pretty clear that Cabrera is better than Inge and I’m not going to try and dissuade you from thinking that way. But as both Rob Neyer and Lee Panas have pointed out, the chasm in defensive ability between the two makes the upgrade not as dramatic as it appears at first blush. Are the Tigers better served putting Cabrera in left field?

Defensively I’ll turn to the methodology I deployed a couple weeks ago when I was giddy about the Tigers infield defense. Using PMR, we know that Brandon Inge is about 20 plays better than predicted over 4000 balls in play. Cabrera meanwhile is awful. He makes about 31 plays fewer than expected. A swing of 51 plays between the two players is simply huge. That works out to about 40 runs. That number differs in magnitude from Neyer’s (he had it at 40 plays or 32 runs) and Lee’s (46 plays and 37 runs), but you get the idea.

But what happens if Cabrera plays the outfield? I don’t expect him to be a defensive whiz out there either. But it is farther down the defensive spectrum, so while he may be not good, it may not be as glaringly not good. Quite frankly a lower percentage of balls hit to left field are expected to be converted to outs than at third base, so simply in decreased opportunities there may be an improvement in putting Cabrera out there.

For the sake of argument, let’s average the performance of the 5 worst left fielders and say he’ll perform similarly. That would mean that over 4000 balls in play (or about 145 games) he’d miss 25 plays. Now those plays are more costly in left field than third base because they are more likely to go for extra bases so the run value is 21 runs.

But of course there is an offensive component there as well. To estimate left field production with Marcus Thames and Jacque Jones I gave Jones about two-thirds of the playing time with the rest going to Thames. And for the offensive projections I used the Bill James Runs Created projections available at Fangraphs.

Here’s how the two options work out over 145 games:

Cabrera plays 3rd

The total contribution from the 2 positions is 189.2 runs.

Cabrera plays left field

The total run contribution is 183.5

The verdict

It looks to be a wash. Caveats abound here because we’re working on a number of assumptions. James projections see Inge continuing to regress. Does he follow that path or does he bounce back even a little and get a slugging percentage over .400? Along the same lines does Jacque Jones bounce back and figure out how to hit for any modicum of power? Either thing happening swings the balance.

The other item to keep in mind is that the Tigers will be trotting out a rotation with 3 southpaws meaning there will be a greater number of balls going to the left side of the field. While that effects the infield as well as the outfield, there are more plays in the infield. The more balls hit to 3rd, the greater the disparity between Cabrera and Inge defensively.

As for what players you’d rather have around, there are pluses and minuses to both. Inge does provide considerable versatility in his ability to play 3rd base and outifeld and even catcher. If you remember the Tigers need someone to back up Pudge in case Vance Wilson isn’t ready. I know Inge doesn’t want to go behind the plate, but his situation has changed.

Inge is also owed the most money with 3 years left on his contract. That makes him the most desirable for the Tigers to move and the least desirable for other teams to take. Jones only has a year left, but doesn’t offer the versatility of Inge but does provide a left handed bat. Marcus Thames is entering his first year of arbitration, meaning he’ll be year to year and relatively cheap for the next 3 years, but provides the least flexibility and is a highly redundant right handed bat.

While this will cause great consternation among many, I’d advocate for keeping Inge and having him play 3rd base, putting Cabrera in left field, moving Thames and making Jacque Jones the 4th outfielder. If the Tigers can get a decent return for Inge, like prospects or a solid bullpen arm it does probably make sense to move him. But I can’t see moving him just to clear a spot or payroll. The team is far from boxed in at that point, and if Inge absolutely flounders offensively they can shift things around.

And yet another option is to platoon defensively. On the nights when a lefty is on the mound, especially Kenny Rogers, it is probably worthwhile to have the superior defender at the hot corner.

These aren’t easy choices, but they are definitely fun ones.

Over the last month or so, David Pinto has released the majority of his studies using his probabilistic model of range (PMR). Today we’ll delve into the Tigers defense using this advanced metric.

I’ve explained PMR in the past, but a refresher is probably worthwhile. The PMR model uses data play by play data collected by Baseball Info Solutions. Pinto uses 3 years of this data to find out the probability that a batted ball will be converted into an out. In doing this he accounts for the handedness of the batter and pitcher, the type of hit (grounder, fly, etc), how hard the ball was hit, and the direction the ball was hit. The beauty of the system is that it provides context to the data. Players who have harder to field opportunities get credit it for it. It also removes the subjectivity of an official scorers decision.

What the system doesn’t do is account for throwing ability for outfielders. So a Jacque Jones upgrade in range would be lessened by a weak throwing arm.

On to the data. The first table shows how the Tigers fared by position.

The column definitions are as follows:

• In Play: the total number of balls in play for the 2007 season against the Tigers
• Plays: the actual number of balls converted to outs by each position
• Exp Plays: the number of balls that would be expected to be converted to outs based on the aforementioned factors
• DER: Defensive efficiency ratio. Plays divided by In Play
• Exp DER: Calculated based on types of balls put in play. Used to produce Exp Plays.
• Rate: Plays divided by expected plays
• Runs: The runs saved above or below expected. Calculated using methodology described here and here.

Most of these results shouldn’t be too surprising. The Tigers struggled with defense at shortstop, first base, and left field. All 3 of those positions will have new help coming in 2008. Meanwhile they excelled in centerfield, third base, and were strong at shortstop. Tigers pitchers defended their positions well, but I don’t think anything will put an end to PFP jokes.

Pinto also publishes the results for individual fielders. I have listed the Tigers primary defenders at each position. The runs column I based on 4000 balls in play which is roughly 145 games.

And the bench…

On the whole, the Tigers bench defense was quite solid. Across the board they were pretty much right in line with their expected level of production. Of course with bench players you’d expect them to be strong defensively because often times that is what is keeping them in the league (see Ramon Santiago).

Also notice that the Tigers 3 weakest defensive positions received the most support from the bench. The first step is recognizing the problem, which clearly the Tigers did last year and were quick to address this year.

Out of Left field

Left field is a position that really jumps out. Craig Monroe was pretty poor and accounted for 58% of the innings logged by Tigers in left field. Yet the position as a whole was pretty neutral because Marcus Thames (277 inn), Timo Perez (158 inn), Cameron Maybin (80 inn) and Ryan Raburn (58 inn) were above expected.

Thames and Raburn are good candidates to continue to log innings out there, but the lions share will be held by Jacque Jones. Jones was primarily a centerfielder last year, but was mostly a right fielder prior to that. As a right fielder he rated about 7 runs above expected. So the Tigers should expect to see a positive in net contribution in left field – possibly to the tune of a full win just defensively.

6-3

The other positional shake-up of course is Renteria to short and Guillen to first. Guillen had limited time at first base with only 545 balls in play while he was manning the position. However during that time he turned in 4 more plays than expected. Over a full season that would be 22 plays above expected and over 17 runs. That is potentially a 30 run swing in defense at first base based on range.

A couple caveats here. First, Guillen’s data is limited so projecting a full season based on it should be done with a grain of salt. But placing a shortstop’s range at first, even a declining shortstop, should be a substantial upgrade over a statue-esque Casey. Second, these measures don’t account for a first baseman’s ability to field throws – something that Casey excelled at. But without Guillen having to field his own throws, that task should be easier.

As for shortstop, PMR rates Edgar Renteria as a little below expected. He was -4.13 plays over 3067 balls in play. On a run basis per 4000 that is -4.1 runs.

The Tigers stand to see a real upgrade at 2 infield positions as well as in left field. The total defensive improvements could be in the magnitude for 3 to 5 wins.

I drew on many posts at Baseball Musings, but they can all be found on the PMR category page.

The Tigers make 2 moves, and my internet connection flakes out that night. As such, I’ll just wrap the analysis into one post. Before getting into the individual evaluations I wanted to note that with the Todd Jones signing, the Tigers payroll has eclipsed the $100 million mark. I have it pegged at $102 right now (not counting the relief the Cubs are sending in the Jacque Jones deal.

Todd Jones

I can definitely see some merit in this signing. It’s a one year deal and at $7 million it is certainly palatable – even if it’s over market value. With a healthy Zumaya, this deal makes all kinds of sense. The veteran comes back for one more year to help transition to the young gun. Trouble is, we don’t know now if that gun will be firing bullets or blanks or anything.

Because of the uncertainty surrounding Zumaya, I feel the Tigers should have gone after Francisco Cordero. The Tigers very well may end up in a situation where they will be looking for a free agent closer next year anyways if Zumaya can’t comeback or isn’t ready to assume closing responsibilities. In a year that the Tigers were clearly in “go for it” mode, getting a top shelf closer would have fit the bill. If Zumaya does come back, you have a pretty solid bullpen – especially as Fernando Rodney becomes a free agent in 2010.

Bill James projects Cordero to throw 61 innings with a FIP (fielding independent pitching) of 3.15. Assuming a league average FIP of 4.43 that would make Cordero worth about one more win than Todd Jones. Jones projects to a 3.77 FIP.

Still, Cordero isn’t a sure thing. He had a bad year in 2006 when he blew 11 saves. It’s probably an anomaly, but it’s out there. Also, Cordero would have wanted to come to the Tigers. It isn’t the laughable proposition it was 3 years ago, but there are no guarantees.

There is value in the Tigers moving quickly to fill a need. Plus Dave Dombrowski and Jim Leyland have a penchant for the familiar making them comfortable with Todd Jones. As for the $7 million, the Tigers probably overpaid. Jones is about one win above replacement level. Assuming a win in the free agent market is worth $4.4 million then Jones salary should be about $4.8 million (you need to add the major league minimum to the base).

As long as Todd Jones can continue to keep his slugging against south of .400, and if he can limit the walks, the should be okay in 2008.

Jacque Jones for Omar Infante

My initial reaction to this trade was that I liked it, and that has held up over the last day. I like Infante, and at age 25 there is a still a chance he could be a productive major league player. But it was clear that isn’t wasn’t going to happen for him here in Detroit. Plus he’ll be in his second year of arbitration. Plus, the Tigers have a couple players who could fill the utility role for cheap. So even though Infante may have some value to some club, he didn’t have a lot of value to the Tigers. That they got a real major leaguer in return is a coup.

That major leaguer of course is Jacque Jones. The stuff to like about Jones is that he is a solid defender who can play all 3 outfield positions. But his arm has him better suited to center of left. He’s also left handed, which is helpful for the Tigers.

If the Tigers deploy him as part of a platoon, they have the makings of an acceptable offensive outfield. Jones against righties has hit 294/342/483. Meanwhile Marcus Thames against lefties is 263/333/512. For a total cost of $5 million or so a combined 280/335/490 line would fit nicely in this lineup.

The concern with Jones of course is that his slugging fell off the map last year when he only hit 5 homers. It was a Sean Casey-ish year, but it wasn’t nearly as conspicuous as he played a large chunk in centerfield. Whether it was an anomaly or aging remains to be seen. It’s also worth noting that Jones posted the best walk to strikeout ratio of his career last year. For what it’s worth James projects a 278/332/433 line but without facing lefties he has a chance to better that.

So I give the trade a thumbs up. Still, I’ll miss Infante’s salsa at-bat music this season.

Other stuff

• Craig Monroe is now a Minnesota Twin. Best of luck to Craig. He always has mashed in the Metrodome where he’s hit 305/351/520 for his career so this could be a good fit.
• The Tigers completed the Roman Colon trade by acquiring Danny Christensen from the Royals. Christensen is left handed and 24. The former appears to be his most dominant trait. He struggled in AA last year as he gave up a ton of hits, 23 of them for homers in 140 innings.