Are Larish and Thames on the trading block?

Tomorrow is the start of the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas and things are going to get crazy-stupid when it comes to rumors and people who saw people talking to people. It was at the winter meetings last year (a year ago last Thursday to be exact) when the Tigers traded for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. It was a move that came out of nowhere, so you never know what will happen. With that in mind, here is a cautious look at Tigers related rumors before the meetings begin.

Bullpen help

As mentioned Friday, it looks like the Tigers and the Mets are both interested in former Cubs closer Kerry Wood. The Mets however favor K-Rod which would work in the Tigers favor. But Buster Olney says that the Mets will throw offers out to multiple closers and the first that accepts will get the gig. Nice to be in a buyers marker.

Wood very well could be better than both Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes, but health concerns could make him affordable from a dollars and years stand point. Motor City Bengals notes that while Wood’s numbers were terrific, his door-slamming ability wasn’t really tested in ’08.

Another closer with injury concerns is being linked to the Tigers today as well in the form of J.J. Putz. It’s not the first time Putz’s name has come up. This time it is Nick Cafardo (purveyor of Robertson for Lugo rumors) raising the issue, but it sounds like he’s talking more from a fit perspective than actual rumors.

UPDATE 12:01 a.m. John Perrotto reports that the Tigers would like to use Jeff Larish as part of a deal for Putz.

While there are mixed feelings about him as a closer, I’m still a fan of Brandon Lyon as bullpen help. I’m in favor of snapping up a player who won’t cost draft picks as compensation, and who generally doesn’t offer up walks. He’s also a buy-low candidate coming off a year in which he was hurt by a high batting average on balls in play. There’s no rumor here except for me stating my interest. Of course it could be a moot point if Lyon elects to accept arbitration which he is seriously considering. Today is the deadline though so we should know soon enough.

UPDATE 10:55 p.m. Lyon has rejected arbitration.

UPDATE 12.08.08 5:08 a.m. David Weathers, another named linked to the Tigers has accepted arbitration.

Catcher

Gerald Laird is still the name the Tigers are pursuing. Morosi mentions pitchers like Guillermo Moscoso, Brandon Hamilton, Luis Marte, and Jon Kibler as possible trading chits.

UPDATE 10:45 p.m. The Tigers and Rangers may be nearing a deal involving Guillermo Moscoso

Starting Pitcher

This has been remarkably quiet. In fact the only free agent starter I’ve heard linked to the Tigers is Freddy Garcia who his battling an arm and shoulder injury of some degree of severity.

Shortstop

The Pittsburgh Post Gazette indicates that the Pirates may be looking for either Matt Joyce or Jeff Larish in return for Jack Wilson. Joyce is a definite no, Larish is a maybe in my book. Our friends at Pirates Revolution run down the pro’s and con’s of a Wilson trade.

The Tigers will meet with Adam Everett this week in Vegas.

UPDATE 12:01 a.m. Perrotto reports the Tigers interest in Wilson has cooled and that they view Everett as his equal.

UPDATE 12.08.08 5:08 a.m. Rosenthal says the Tigers are also looking Nick Punto but that Everett is the preference. Morosi notes that Everett worked out for the Tigers yesterday.

And while the Tigers aren’t being linked at all to Rafael Furcal or Orlando Cabrera, it’s worth noting the shift in the shortstop market with Furcal not signing with the A’s and Cabrera declining arbitration. I see both of these moves benefiting the Tigers indirectly.

This should serve as a nice repository for rumors. If there are updates to any of the names mentioned here, I’ll post the update when I get a chance. If something more concrete comes about, we’ll get up a post about that as well. Hang on. This could be a fun week.

Fangraphs continues to become the stat site for sabermetric player stats. Today they announce the addition of MGL’s UZR fielding system which is widely regarded as one of the most sophisticated fielding systems available.

UZR has been largely unavailable for the last several seasons because MGL has been consulting for big league teams. He’s posted leaders and trailers the last few years, but now the full data set is available. The only difference is that this set uses Baseball Info Solutions data instead of STATS Inc.

You can find them on the player pages and leader boards on Fangraphs site. But I thought I would drop in a few of interest here. These are runs per 150 games.

Jack Wilson: 06: -2.8, 07: 12.7, 08: 2.2
Adam Everett: 06: 24.9, 07: 24.4, 08: 10.0
Cesar Izturis: 06: -10.8, 07: -2.5, 08: 12.5
Edgar Renteria: 06: 2.1, 07: -2.2, 08: 1.1

This is the DTW’s first foray into live web video. The show will kick off at 11 a.m. and you can watch it below. If you’d like to make comments you can head over to the ustream.tv page and join in the chat. I’ll be talking about the Tigers offseason, and the Jack Wilson rumors. Feel free to ask questions and I’ll try to tackle those as well.

I’ll try and archive this for later viewing after the show, and links I mention I will include in this post as well.

UPDATE: The archived version is now up below.

Recap

We touched on the Jack Wilson trade rumors, of which I have mixed emotions depending on who the Tigers give up. I pitched Josh Bard over Gerald Laird again. I expressed frustration over the relievers the Tigers are linked to. Mostly I’m worried that I don’t know what direction the Tigers are moving in, is it cost cutting or competing and how much impact will the Big 3 situation effect the payroll.

Thanks to all those who participated and spread the word. Thanks also to my co-host Jade the Beagle.

Links to stuff mentioned

• Bless You Boys
• Motown Sports
• Those who plugged it on Twitter @big_al_twfe, @livetweetlinks, @coryh64 (check out his Pirates blog), @piraterev, @blessyouboys, and @dougwernet.
• Dombrowski with NY Daily News
• Jack Wilson rumors
• Joe Beimel rumors

No time to post now (day job and all), but there are rumors and denials about a Jack Wilson trade and I know people want to discuss it.

Here’s the link to MLB Trade Rumors which will be on top of this.

UPDATED: So there are more rumors and denials. All linked at the MLBTR link above. The buzz is so strong that it makes me think that this is close to happening, but the buzz is so all-over-the-place it makes me think it might be a load of crap.

It’s hard to offer up analysis without knowing any parameters, but I’ll wing it.

Money

When the Tigers declined offering Renteria arbitration because they didn’t want to be exposed to the possibility of a $9 million commitment, I figured that it had killed Wilson rumors. Wilson makes $7.5 million which is not significantly less than Renteria, plus there’s that whole thing about having to trade players.

Now in some of the reports it has the Pirates picking up the bulk of the salary, which is good in the sense that the Tigers are trying to achieve some sort of benefit here. It’s bad from the sense that Detroit is looking to the Pirates for cash. This really deserves a post of its own.

Is he an upgrade?

Wilson isn’t an upgrade over Renteria. If you see comments 12, 17, and 20 below, both players are about a half win below average. Wilson gets his value on defense while Renteria gets his on offense. Yes Renteria had a down year, but he still maintained a high line drive rate and improved dramatically in the second half.

Wilson is coming off an injury plagued season, but in his time on the diamond he was excellent at short (+16 in Fielding Bible). Of course with smaller samples comes greater opportunity for flukiness as well. Still, Wilson profiles at least as an above average defender. At the same time he’s another NL’er and would need that requisite adjusting thing.

What would the Tigers have to give up?

Probably too much, or at least it will feel like it. They want a stop gap, and the Pirates want prospects. So the Tigers are giving up something of future value for a one year rental of an average-ish player in a year where there intentions of competing or cutting costs seem to be diametrically opposed.

In terms of names…I’m not the guy to ask. I never thought they’d have to give up Jurrjens and Hernandez for Renteria.

What else could they do?

Adam Everett’s name got tossed out in one report today. He really is the ultimate all glove no hit guy. In his defensive prime he was 40 plays above average. But he’s really been hampered by injuries the last 2 years and you have to wonder if it will hurt his range. But he should be really cheap. Like Santiago cheap.

Cesar Izturis is another name I’d like to see linked to the Tigers. He isn’t as good as Wilson, in fact he’s a win worse with the bat and a little better with the glove, but if it’s cost cutting that’s in store, why not sacrifice a win to save $6 million or prospects?

I’m not opposed to Wilson, but I just hope that if it happens the Tigers don’t overpay for what could very likely be an inconsequential player. Stay tuned. I’ll talk more about this if it happens. Also, I will be streaming live at 11 a.m. ET tomorrow and will likely be discussing this more then.