A journey through some links that will update us on the Tigers walking wounded, that will put limits on Justin Verlander’s workload, and other odds and ends including bullpen usage and Alex Avila.

Injuries

Word out of Lakeland is that Zach Miner is preparing to enter pseudo game action as part of his rehab assignment. Even with no set backs that would likely but him a couple weeks away from being ready to join the Tigers. And while the bullpen has been overworked and a fresh arm would be helpful, the bullpen has also been pretty effective.

Adam Everett is expected to be back any day now after taking batting practice yesterday. That could prove timely as Jim Leyland is still concerned about Scott Sizemore’s ankle and if he wants to spell him at second, he would have Ramon Santiago as an option with a healthy Everett manning short.

For those that were hoping to get a look at Brent Dlugach, he has cooled off at Toledo as his BABIP hasn’t been able to sustain his strikeout rate (31 K’s in 86 PA’s).

On the minor league injury front the Tigers are hopeful that Jacob Turner’s soreness is an adjustment to a pro pitching schedule and nothing ominous.

Verlander’s workload

With Justin Verlander throwing over 120 pitches in each of his last two starts and not seeing the sixth inning in either, it turned out to be a clubhouse topic yesterday. Leyland says he is going to put a limit on Verlander in his next start regardless of the inning. Verlander acknowledges that he needs to be more efficient but says pitch counts are overrated.

We’ll see what happens with this limit. I’m sure that Leyland doesn’t want Verlander getting hurt on his watch, but he also had him throw over 120 pitches in 6 of his last 8 outings last season. Verlander has always proven up to the task, I just doubt that Leyland is going to reign him in too much.

The rest

• Tiger Tales: A Detroit Tigers Blog: Tigers Bullpen Bailing Out Starters
• Beck’s Blog: Tigers’ reactions on the Span play
• Tigers catcher Alex Avila is focusing on good at-bats to break slump | – MLive.com
• Quantifying catchers: The best and the worst defenders – Bless You Boys
• Morning prowl: Tale of two centerfielders – Bless You Boys

The last 2 years Curtis Granderson has put on a celebrity basketball game as a fundraiser for his Grand Kids Foundation. Even though his status as a Tiger was in flux, his commitment to the kids wasn’t and Granderson announced that he will be hosting the event again this season.

This year’s game will be at Birmingham Seaholm on January 24th, and this one is sure to have a little bit of a different flavor. “This will also be an emotional event on a personal level, as it will be somewhat of a goodbye from me to the fans and the city that have supported me so strongly throughout my career so far,” says Granderson.  “I hope that those fans can pack the gym and also raise a lot of money for inner city education in Michigan.”

I’ve attended both of the previous games and it makes for a great family event as all the participants seem to have a lot of fun and there is quite a bit of fan interaction.

This years squads will be coached by Lloyd Carr and new Piston Ben Gordon. Carr was a coach last year, and he’ll having returning player Desmond Howard on his team. Some of the confirmed players include Jalen Rose, Jimmy King, T.J. Duckett, Jeff Grayer, Jemele Hill, and Dana Jacobsen. There are usually some late additions to the roster as well so this list probably isn’t final.

Tickets are $30 for adults and $25 for kids and there is a family 4 pack including 2 adult and 2 child tickets for $100. Tickets and other details are available at www.grandkidsfoundation.com.

The Curtis Granderson trade hasn’t set well with me from the outset. I’ve taken some time to mull everything over and look at it a number of ways. I think I’ve moved past the emotional component. I’ve taken a look back at the new Tigers and the return is OK. But therein lies the problem. The return was just OK in my view. An OK return isn’t enough to trade a player that didn’t have to be traded. It just doesn’t add up.

I know I’m not alone in this. Other Tigers bloggers who I respect for their thoughtful and analytic approach are still struggling with it as well. Like them, it is with the chronology of the deal that doesn’t make sense.

Joel Sherman first reported that the Tigers told the Diamondbacks that Max Scherzer wasn’t enough for Edwin Jackson which is how Daniel Schlereth came to be in the deal which is how the Yankees came into the deal.

I understand trying to maximize the trade value for Jackson, but wouldn’t a straight Scherzer for Jackson trade have accomplished the Tigers mission. They would have realized a net savings of $3-$4 million for 2010 while netting an additional 3 years of club control while not taking a step back on the field. Why not make that trade, forego Schlereth and keep Granderson on the team?

Perhaps Dombrowski shares the Diamondbacks concern that Scherzer can’t stay in the rotation because of violent delivery. If that’s the case the trade looks much less appealing right at the outset.

Or maybe the financial situation is much more dire than I project it to be? That is certainly a possibility, but the difference between Jackson and Granderson on the payroll in 2010 is $5 million. It isn’t an insignificant number but giving up Granderson doesn’t seem like the best option to save $5 million. Gerald Laird and Bobby Seay will combine to make more than that in 2010. Not to mention the fact that the payroll crunch is over after 2010.

I’m just not buying it.

I understand the Tigers limited resources this year, both in terms of budgets and in attractive assets and that some difficult moves may need to be made. If the Tigers had been bowled over with an offer I would get behind it. That wasn’t the case though. Reports are that the Tigers compromised their demands to let the deal happen. It was almost as if the team HAD to trade Granderson.

What if Dombrowski asked for Scherleth just to force the Yankees into the deal to unload Granderson? The Yankees would probably put together the best package due to the presence of Austin Jackson and the ability for the team to sell it to fans that Jackson could step right in next year.

The question still becomes why? Why would Granderson have to be unloaded and quickly? There has never been even a hint of any sort of character issue and Zach Miner spoke about how the club would miss his leadership. Not to mention the fact the club seems content with Miguel Cabrera’s transgressions the final weekend of the season.

It’s all speculation at this point, but with so little making sense right now that’s what we’re left with.What I do know is that for the first time since the 2002 I’m not looking forward to the coming baseball season with hopeful anticipation.

Dave Dombrowski spoke yesterday of how the team in planning on Austin Jackson manning centerfield next season. But that’s a lot to put on someone who hasn’t seen a pitch at the big league level. Especially when the guy playing second base is in the same boat. So it’s probably natural that the Tigers would get linked to free agent Scott Podsednik.

Lynn Henning (who saw the Granderson trade coming before anyone and was also a member of the Brennan Boesch fan club a couple months prior to his inclusion on the 40 man roster) planted this seed earlier in the week. The seed appears to have a shot at growing as the Tigers were listed as one of five teams interested in the left handed hitting outfielder.

Podsednik hadn’t cracked the .700 OPS barrier since 2006 before having a bit of a late career renaissance when he mustered a 764 OPS for the White Sox in 2009. This would be kind of a buy-high move. For all Podsednik’s speed, he’s not a spectacular fielder and has been pretty average to below average the last couple years according to UZR.

It makes sense to have a left handed option that could play centerfield. Of course for a cash-strapped team it probably makes more sense to just let Clete Thomas get some at-bats in that role. Then again lots of things aren’t making sense with the Tigers lately so I’d say there is a good chance that the deal gets done. As an aside, Podsednik is married to Lisa Dergan (google away).

Image credit: Matt Stratton on flickr

The last day of a very active winter meetings for Tigers fans is upon us. A look at what took place yesterday and what may take place today follows.

• With all the medical records eventually checking out the trade became complete and the 3 GM’s had their press conference while Leyland fretted about the lack of a leadoff hitter and a lineup that is very right handed.
• The new Tigers met with the media and provided their thoughts on coming to Detroit. Phil Coke is prepared to start or relieve and Daniel Schlereth’s fiancée is from Michigan and the new in-laws were already Tigers fans.Meanwhile old Tiger Curtis Granderson talked about how hard it is to leave Detroit.
• Dusty Ryan and Freddy Dolsi were DFA’d to make room on the big league roster.
• Brandon Lyon signed a 3 year deal with the Astros leaving the Tigers to pursue Fernando Rodney or Kevin Gregg as closer options. J.J. Putz was also linked to the Tigers but he may end up with the White Sox instead.
• The Tigers are reportedly one of five teams interested in Scott Podsednik.
• The Rule 5 draft is this morning. The Tigers roster is full at 40 meaning they can’t participate, but they could still lose players.

This should be old hat by now, but here are all the ways to keep up with the Winter Meetings at DTW.

As Tigers fans let us just hope that today is relatively boring. The Tigers will remain active and the roster will continue to change but hopefully we’re done with franchise-type players leaving. In the meantime here’s a recap of what happened yesterday – including some late notes – as well as a look at what may happen today.

• There was a pretty big trade that went down. Baseball America compiled scouting reports on the Tigers return and Baseball Prospectus talked with Arizona manager A.J. Hinch
• Despite the Tigers adding a few bullpen arms, they are still looking for a veteran closer. Some names linked to the Tigers are Kevin Gregg and J.J. Putz. Also don’t rule out a return of Brandon Lyon or Fernando Rodney. Tim Kurkjian reported on Baseball Tonight that he spoke with a Tigers source that said the team would be comfortable with either option.
• The Tigers have to free up a couple of roster spots when the trade is official announced (which could come today if the medical reports are signed off on). I’d look for Bobby Seay to be either traded or non-tendered.
• The Tigers signed Robinzon Diaz to a minor league contract giving them some additional depth if Alex Avila isn’t ready yet.
• Jon Morosi tweeted late last night that there has been some interest in Carlos Guillen.

After some extensive reflection I’ve come to the conclusion that this deal will never really sit well with me. By never I don’t actually mean for eternity, but at least until the fruits of the trade bear some sort of championship or something. That isn’t a reflection on the players the Tigers received, more on the circumstances and the players they let go. Still, there are ends to tie up and dots to connect and other miscellany in need of blogging.

Roster Moves

The Tigers are plus 2 on their 40 man roster once this deal is made official. Jon Morosi tweeted that the Tigers have let it be known that Bobby Seay, Dusty Ryan, and Jeff Larish are on the trade block.

I can see trying to get something for players who aren’t in the plans, and it’s clear that Ryan isn’t a Jim Leyland favorite (and they signed Robinzon Diaz to a minor league deal today), but why hold space on the roster for Dontrelle Willis or Don Kelly?

Lefty-palooza

In the last 2 days the Tigers have picked up 3 left handed bullpen arms. The Tigers dropped Clay Rapada but they still have Fu-Te Ni and Seay on the roster. Now Thomas is kind of a question mark but the Tigers expect him to help at the big league level. Daniel Schlereth may need more seasoning in the minors and it remains to be seen if the Tigers will use Phil Coke in the rotation or the pen.

But more and more signs point to Seay being non-tendered. Seay would likely make about $2 million so that could potentially be another opportunity to save $1.5 million.

Payroll

Given today’s moves, and even allowing for a return by Seay, I have estimated the Tigers payroll to be about $115 million heading into 2010. In 2011 that committed money drops to $49 million with Magglio Ordonez’s option and $34 million without. Of course that only accounts for 3 players so the Tigers would have some holes to fill.

Unfortunately I do believe that today’s move will have a negative impact on attendance before the season even begins. People are pissed and I’ve heard many say they are cancelling their season tickets. It wouldn’t surprise me to see outrage and empty checking accounts combine to knock down the season ticket base by 3000 which is roughly a quarter of a million tickets. It gets worse if the Tigers record sinks and let’s face it, this team isn’t as good as last year.

Silver Linings

Despite being bummed out that Granderson is gone, the reviews of the trade from around the country have been mostly favorable. Keith Law, Dave Cameron, and Rob Neyer have all said that the Tigers did well. Danny Knobler talked to several executives that thought the Tigers got a real nice collection of players. Mike Rogers put some estimates on performance and salary and things seem to work out well in that regard as well.

I’ll just reiterate now that when I speak ill of this trade, it isn’t the players the Tigers got back. I think the Tigers got a decent package. I just never wanted to part with Granderson in the first place.

The legacy

Dave Dombrowski has made a number of bold moves in his career. He traded Randy Johnson for Mark Langston. He turned some blockbusters as the Marlins GM and the Miguel Cabrera trade was epic. But if this trade doesn’t work out (and we won’t know if it works out for a couple years), this will be his legacy in the Detroit due to Granderson’s popularity. It takes guts to make a move like that.

I have some time I figure to take a look at what the Tigers have surrendered and what the Tigers are getting. Will look not just at the numbers, but at the finances and other potential ramifications. That is done better with a clear head. But first….first there is the grieving.

In 2002 the Tigers drafted a kid out of Chicago in the 3rd round. A hard worker this guy was. He didn’t have the one stand out tool, but he managed to do everything pretty well. For that reason he was always overlooked a little bit on various prospect lists.

After working his way through the Tigers system, improving at every stop he got a September call-up. Due to a variety of roster machinations and injuries he got a chance to show his stuff in 2005. I was there when he got that first 2005 start and I remember sitting with my buddy Russ who was asking about the new guy. I explained he could hit pretty good and he could run pretty good and he was a solid defender. After watching him stroke a triple Russ turned to me and said, “I’ll say he can run pretty good.”

In 2006 Curtis Granderson was the Tigers starting centerfielder on Opening Day in Kansas City. I remember interviews where he talked about his feeling when he was out there for the National Anthem and how he felt he had really made it at that point.

He became a key part of the magical 2006 team that made baseball relevant again in Detroit. For many of you reading this you wouldn’t even be on this site were it not for his contributions. He had a big series against he Yankees in the playoffs, but I mostly remember him for hitting a game-tying homer in the 9th inning against the Reds that year. As the season wore on though he became a regular target for quotes on Fox Sports coverage because he was so well spoken, humble, and affable.

When Tigers fan Brian Bluhm was killed in the Virginia Tech tragic shootings, Granderson who was informed that Bluhm was a big fan of his, made him his his number 1 fan on Myspace. What kind of high profiile athlete does that?

Of course 2007 saw the breakout season. The incredible quad 20 with the gold glove caliber defense in centerfield, including a dramatic wall catch that robbed Wily Mo Pena of a home run and secured a sweep of the Red Sox heading into the All Star break. A star was certainly born and further cemented when he joined TBS coverage for the Post Season and became a true ambassador for the sport of baseball.

The Tigers, the city of Detroit, and the state of Michigan had a favorite son. A guy who’s off the field heroics were at the same All Star level that his on field heroics were. And yet it was a guy who was incredibly accessible, even taking the time to answer a few questions for this humble blogger. People adored Granderson, and rightly so.

There was the work ethic and the personality, and the fact he could actually play the game as well. The city of Detroit for all its struggles has been blessed with a series of stars to be proud of. After Al Kaline, and Alan Trammell, and Steve Yzerman, and Nicklas Lidstrom, and, Joe Dumars. Guys who spent their whole career representing the city of Detroit. Granderson was going to be the next one. The one to carry the torch. Granderson was from Chicago but he became one of ours. It wasn’t any one thing, not the Grand Kids Foundation or the way he took a walk off away from Grady Sizemore or the way he conducted himself in interviews. It was all of those things in one special package.

For those who are upset about the trade, I can’t blame you. There is a baseball reason for what went down. But right now it’s okay to grieve. Granderson was a remarkable player and a source of pride for everyone who flipped on that English D cap in the morning. This is the kind of trade that rips the soul out of a fan. The good news is that for those who have their Granderson jersey and called Granderson THEIR Tiger you don’t need to keep that jersey in the closet. It’s an instant classic.

UPDATE 1:37 PM:Shit. Granderson’s medical records sent to Yanks.

UPDATE 1:20 PM: We may know soon enough (or too soon if you ask me). Ed Price says the Tigers are waiting for the Yankees to sign off on 3-way deal and a decision is expected by 2pm. Rosenthal says one of the lefties (Coke or Dunn) is out of the original deal. Joel Sherman has more on the framework of a proposed deal where the Tigers would get Schereth, Scherzer, A Jackson, and one other pitcher.

UPDATE 12:33 PM: There’s way too much smoke for their not to be fire unless everybody is just getting their information from each other. Heyman just tweeted that a direct Yankees/Tigers deal would involve Granderson, Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, and Phil Coke. That’s not enough in my mind for Granderson – especially given his very reasonable contract and the fact the Tigers don’t HAVE to trade him. Another tweet and its a 3 way where the Tigers get Scherleth, Scherzer, A Jackson, and Coke. A better haul to be sure. Everybody (ESPN, SI, Fox) is saying things that are way too similar here. Olney has info in the ESPN live tracker that the Tigers are the ones who reignited talks. I hate the idea of the Tigers compromising.

UPDATE 11:28 AM:Jon Morosi notes that the Tigers are interested in Angels centerfield prospect Peter Bourjous. Bourjous posted a 281/354/423 line as a 22 year old at AA…Mark Feisand thinks the talks of Granderson to the Yankees aren’t dead, but it wouldn’t be for the same set of prospects as originally reported and throws in that the Mariners are expected to make a Grandy push. He also says the Tigers may be caving on their price for Granderson (NO!)…Jon Heyman says the talks are being resuscitated as well.

While it seems that the blockbuster Yankees-Diamondbacks-Tigers trade may be a long shot at this  point, the Tigers will likely still continue to be active on this front. I’d still say that a Curtis Granderson trade is a long shot, but an Edwin Jackson deal seems likely. We’ll keep track of the buzz here.

As of 10:30 this morning, various sources are reporting that the blockbuster is dormant. The Yankees don’t like the prospect cost and various reports say the Tigers aren’t thrilled with their take either. Phil Rogers tweets that there is no movement on the Cubs front for Granderson either.

Image credit: The US Army on flickr. As an aside, for all the talk of Granderson’s community service (which is warranted), Jackson is very active when it comes to working with soldiers and making appearances as well. The above photo was taken at Fort Hood this November.

The first day of the Winter Meetings has come to an end and the sun is coming up on a snowy second day. For Tigers fans there was no shortage of news and drama. To recap:

• The Tigers were tied to several relievers including Kevin Gregg, George Sherrill, and as of a late night rumor J.J. Putz
• Two of their own relievers both turned down salary arbitration in Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney
• The Tigers traded Clay Rapada to the Rangers for cash considerations
• The Tigers signed reliever Brad Thomas who had pitched the last two years in Korea and they made room for him by outrighting Zach Simons to Toledo
• Adam Everett inked a 1 year deal to return and be the heavy side of a shortstop timeshare with Ramon Santiago.
• And there was a bevy of Edwin Jackson and Curtis Granderson speculation culminating in a rumored  potential (and potentially dead) 3-way deal with the Yankees and Diamondbacks.

“Tomorrow will bring a different tone in conversations,” Dombrowski said Monday.

Day 2 figures to have much more of the same, but talks are likely to intensify as Dombrowski tries to sort out the back of their bullpen.

My feeling is that they don’t want to spend a lot, but that they want some established presence closing games. Lyon and Rodney were both in that mix had they accepted arbitration. Neither are necessarily out of that discussion but the Tigers no longer have to hold a potential spot for them.

And all those rumors swirling around the Tigers, Lynn Henning caught up with Dombrowski. Dombrowski said the deals make sense from a baseball perspective, but not to believe everything you hear.

Taking of some administrative functions, I ran things a little differently on the site with the most active (posts getting multiple updates throughout the day) or relevant posts staying at the top of the list with a carousel of recent posts at the very top. Does this work for people or should I return to straight reverse-chronological?

As a reminder, there are many ways to follow the Winter Meetings at the Detroit Tigers Weblog

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi report that the framework for a blockbuster deal (h/t) between the Tigers, the Diamondbacks, and the Yankees was in place before at least one of the teams pulled out. The Tigers would have sent Edwin Jackson to Arizona, Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, and they would have received Max Scherzer with other young players floating to each team involved.

This would mesh with the various reports throughout the day that Arizona was looking like the destination for Jackson, and it also connects the dots on a report from Nick Piercoro about a third team being needed for the Diamondbacks to give up Scherzer (h/t).

From the sounds of the Fox Sports report it wasn’t Arizona who balked on the deal meaning it was the Tigers and/or the Yankees who passed. The Tigers had set their price for Granderson as Phil Hughes and Austin Jackson and with Jackson included in an outbound package I’d guess the Tigers would have been looking for Scherzer, either Jackson or Hughes, and then probably an additional prospect from the Yankees.

UPDATE: The Tigers would have received Scherzer, Jackson, Phil Coke, and Mike Dunn

What we don’t know is if this deal is dead, or just dormant.

UPDATE: 10:01 PM: Things seem to have really slowed down. For Nightengale’s insistence that the Tigers want to move Granderson this week, others aren’t seeing the same things. Buster Olney on Baseball Tonight said the Tigers asked for Austin Jackson and Phil Hughes from the Yankees for Grandy and from the Cubs they wanted Starlin Castro and 2 pitching prospects. Phil Rogers says the Mariners may be in on Granderson and Ed Price further confirms the Diamondbacks interest in Edwin Jackson. And Dombrowski has a weak denial (my interpretation) that the team is close to any deals.

UPDATE 4:54 PMFoxsports.com has updated their site reiterating that a deal is close for Jackson but still call Arizona and Seattle as the favorites. Joel Sherman said Mariners officials are downplaying their interest while Ed Price said the Tigers are mulling over a dozen offers for the right hander. Morosi says the Angels are still in on both Granderson and Jackson.

UPDATE 4:18 PM: Foxsports.com reports the Tigers are close to trading Jackson and lists the D’backs and Mariners but rule out the Dodgers, Brewers, and Mets. Buster Olney tweets the asking price for Jackson is very high. The Chicago Tribune says lobby buzz is that the Yankees are hot on the trail of Granderson. Ed Price calls interest lukewarm because of unwillingness to deal Austin Jackson.

UPDATE 3:14 PM:Ed Price tweeted rumor that the Mets acquired Edwin Jackson, but then quickly clarified and Mets officials issued a denial.

UPDATE 1:59 PM: Bob Nightengale tweets the Tigers are close to trading Edwin Jackson. No mention of where that might be though.

There is no real news on the Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson trade fronts, but here is a roundup of some news and related tweets from this morning.

• Joel Sherman spoke with an official from another team that thinks the Yankees really want Granderson.
• The Cubs and Yankees have been mentioned as two potential destinations for Granderson. Not coincidentally both have some interest in Mike Cameron and according to Sherman the Cubs like Melky Cabrera. I don’t know what this all means.
• Dave Sheinin of the Washington Post said the Nationals (who just traded for Brian Bruney) are looking for veteran starting pitching help and mentions Edwin Jackson as a potential target (h/t). I don’t know that the Nats have the pieces to do it though.
• Be it the Nats or one of the other 28 teams, Bob Nightengale surveys the buzz and says Jackson will be dealt soon.

Image credit: yoppy on flickr

The good news for Tigers fans is that according to Jon Paul Morosi a couple of sources say it is unlikely that the Tigers trade Miguel Cabrera this week. Salary relief would of course be nice, but Morosi raises another good point. Trading away a team’s best player likely sends the wrong message to the player you’d like to keep around.

Verlander, who is on the verge of receiving a big raise in salary arbitration, is on track to become a free agent after the 2011 season. If the Tigers trade prominent players such as Granderson and Jackson, they may have a difficult time convincing Verlander to remain in Detroit for the long term.

It’s quite the conundrum for the Tigers. The cash saved by in the future by moving Miguel Cabrera or Curtis Granderson would certainly help with the flexibility to sign Justin Verlander but it would also make the climate less attractive. Verlander will get his money regardless so he’ll be able to look for a favorable situation.

As for what it will take to sign Verlander, we can start by looking at some rumors swirling around Felix Hernandez who like Verlander is 2 years removed from free agency. Ken Rosenthal reports that the two sides are far apart on a long term deal where the starting point was a 4 year $45 million offer.

Hernandez should command more because as good as Verlander has been, King Felix has been better and is 3 years younger. Still, it would take probably $20 million to buy out Verlander’s 2 arbitration years and then $15-18 million per year after that at least.

Jon Heyman writes today that things aren’t very close in a proposed Milton Bradley for Pat Burrell swap between the Rays and the Cubs. This doesn’t have a direct impact on the Tigers, but it is worth watching because there is speculation that the Cubs would want to move Bradley before setting their sights on Curtis Granderson.

Some in the Tigers blogosphere had suggested that Milton Bradley may be a decent acquisition for the Tigers if it involved a swap of undesirable contracts. Bradley will earn $10 million in 2010 and $11 million in 2011.

Bradley is coming off a year that saw his power drop dramatically as he only mustered a .397 slugging percentage. He hit fewer line drives and more groundballs but managed to maintain a health .378 OBP.

UPDATE: Thanks to Ben and Lee for pointing to this related note from Will Carroll that Mike Cameron is also in the Cubs mix, which if he was signed would likely kill Granderson trade talk as far as the Cubs were concerned.

Image from SD Dirk on Flickr

Curtis Granderson’s 2009 season has received plenty of scrutiny, and this was even before trade rumors crept up. Granderson struggled at times during the season, and had a hard time sustaining success. His .249 batting average was the lowest of his career and it was a drag on his on base percentage and slugging percentage as well. We know batting average is volatile so did Granderson just suffer from some bad luck, or did something else change? Fortunately we have hit location data to help shed some light on these questions.

Granderson’s batting average was dragged down by a .276 batting average on balls in play. That is a number that should typically be in the .320ish range, especially for someone with Granderson’s speed. A shift like that would lead people to think he was largely unlucky. A closer look would show a shift in his balls in play from the harder to field grounders to the easier to field fly balls. Ask fans what they saw and many would say it looked like Granderson got overly concerned with the homers (a new career high) and that he pulled the ball to much. But what would the data say?

Spray Charts and other data

Below are spray charts for each of Granderson’s last 3 years. These charts were assembled by using data from the MLB.com Gameday application. The hit locations are reported by the MLB.com stringer and aren’t absolute positions in the sense that Pitch f/x measures things, but this serves as a very nice proxy. The blue dots are outs, the orange dots are hits. Click on each chart to get a larger view.

One of the nice things about spray charts is that there is plenty of data and certain trends can emerge. One of the not so nice things about spray charts is that there is plenty of data and they can sometimes be overwhelming.

The pretty orange table to the right takes the above spray charts and puts them into tabular form. The vector is the direction the ball was hit. Second base is 90 degrees from home plate, the first baseline is at 135 degrees and the third baseline is at 45 degrees. The gradient shading indicates the higher percentages, the darker the field, the higher the concentration of balls in play.

While he’s been a pull hitter his whole career, it became much more pronounced in 2009 with half of his balls in play (50%)between the first baseline and the approximate spot of the second baseman. That easily topped his previous seasons where he had 42% and 46% in 2007 and 2008 respectively.

Summarizing the table into  a more compact table gives us:

Dir.	2007	2008	2009
Oppo	16.53%	21.41%	16.53%
Middle	36.23%	34.22%	29.08%
Pull	46.40%	42.60%	50.60%

Opposite is defined as vectors 50-75,  middle is defined as 80-105, and pull is defined as 110-135 (keep in mind these are actually buckets so the something like 76 would fall in the 80 bucket and 46 would fall in the 50 bucket).

Granderson went the opposite way at the exact same rate as 2007, his best season. The 2008 season was when he spread the ball around the most, but the difference between 2009 and the other season was the rate at which he took the ball up the middle.

Pulling the ball isn’t a bad thing

We hear it all the time that batters get too pull happy. Maybe Granderson falls into that category in 2009, but if you look at his overall numbers he hits MUCH better to the pull field. For his career he hits .470 on balls that he pulls versus .302 on balls up the middle and .293 on balls to the left side.

Granderson continued to thrive when pulling the ball in 2009, perhaps dismissing the notion that he was pull-happy. He posted a .457 batting average on pulled balls as opposed to hitting .241 up the middle and .221 to the opposite field.

But I won’t dismiss the notion and instead speculate that Granderson either a)tried to pull the ball too much and balls the other way were accidents or b)had a mechanical change that prevented him from driving the ball when he wasn’t pulling it. Or maybe it was some combination of both, like b) fostering a).

The air outs

The biggest change in Granderson’s batted ball distribution was the exchange of ground balls for fly balls. Granderson’s line drive rate was right in line with his career mark (21.2 % in 2009 and 20.7% overall). But Granderson for his career is a 36% ground ball hitter and a 43% fly ball hitter. In 2009 those numbers were 29% and 49%. This shift helped Granderson’s home run production, but it hurt his batting average on balls in play driving down his overall batting average.

Not all fly balls are created equal. Some fly balls have a chance to become home runs or gappers. Pop-ups have a very small chance of becoming anything other than an easy out. Unfortunately Granderson hit a ton of pop-ups in 2009. Those pop-ups also accounted for a healthy percentage of the balls that Granderson hit to the opposite field.

You’ll see that the Fly Out profile remained fairly consistent in terms of distribution across each of the last 3 years. It’s the fly balls classified as Pop Outs that rose dramatically. Also, Granderson did tend to pull everything that he hit on the ground with only 26 ground outs that weren’t pulled in 2009.

*A brief aside on classifications – These are how MLB.com classified items and they are the ones that made distinction between Pop Outs and Fly Outs. Also, these are pretty much the classifications we have to work with. I don’t have information like “Ground ball single to left” to account for hits that went to the left side on the ground.

For those who prefer the visual representation of the spray chart, the plot below has all of Granderson’s Fly Outs and Pop-Outs for the last 3 years.

Visually it’s easy to see the disproportionate number of red dots as opposed to the other colors. The other thing I think I see (haven’t quantified it) is that there are more deep blue and green dots in left field.

Putting it together

As with most things there isn’t just one answer. Because he still did well when pulling the ball, I don’t think he was necessarily pulling the ball too much. The pop-ups were a large source of the drop in batting average with infield flies having a similar negative impact as a strikeout. It almost always results in an out and almost always fails to advance runners. The difference is that a couple manage to drop (ask Gerald Laird and his love affair with the right field foul line).

Hitters do have some control over infield flies and with Granderson doubling his rate there was probably a change. The 2006 Hardball Times annual shows us that there is a .60 year to year correlation for infield fly rates for hitters so it is something that hitters do have control over.

Using the xBABIP calculator Granderson’s BABIP should have been about .301. So we can ballpark it and say half of his dip in BABIP can be attributed to bad luck, and about half can be chalked up to a change in batted ball distribution.

I don’t know that Granderson needs to use the whole field to be effective. He was very effective in 2007 without hitting a lot of balls to the opposite field. But he probably does need to use more of the field than he did in 2009 when a big chunk of opposite field balls were merely pop-ups.

References

The sites where data was drawn from were linked in the context of the article, but I also used The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2006
for data on infield fly repeatability. The spray charts and corresponding data were produced by following the examples in the uber valuable Baseball Hacks
book.