The last day of a very active winter meetings for Tigers fans is upon us. A look at what took place yesterday and what may take place today follows.

• With all the medical records eventually checking out the trade became complete and the 3 GM’s had their press conference while Leyland fretted about the lack of a leadoff hitter and a lineup that is very right handed.
• The new Tigers met with the media and provided their thoughts on coming to Detroit. Phil Coke is prepared to start or relieve and Daniel Schlereth’s fiancée is from Michigan and the new in-laws were already Tigers fans.Meanwhile old Tiger Curtis Granderson talked about how hard it is to leave Detroit.
• Dusty Ryan and Freddy Dolsi were DFA’d to make room on the big league roster.
• Brandon Lyon signed a 3 year deal with the Astros leaving the Tigers to pursue Fernando Rodney or Kevin Gregg as closer options. J.J. Putz was also linked to the Tigers but he may end up with the White Sox instead.
• The Tigers are reportedly one of five teams interested in Scott Podsednik.
• The Rule 5 draft is this morning. The Tigers roster is full at 40 meaning they can’t participate, but they could still lose players.

This should be old hat by now, but here are all the ways to keep up with the Winter Meetings at DTW.

There goes one potential closer option for the Tigers with Brandon Lyon inking a 3 year, $15 milion deal with the Houston Astros pending a physical. It’s a great deal for Lyon, but probably a year longer than the Tigers would have preferred to go.

Earlier in the evening Ken Rosenthal reported that with the context of LaTroy Hawkins deal with the Brewers Lyon was looking for 2 years and $9 million. Maybe Ed Wade should have been on Twitter.

Lyon was signed just before the start of spring training last year on a one year deal and given a shot to be the Tigers closer. He struggled in spring training and those struggles extended through April. Then something clicked and Lyon was lights out. From May 19th until the end of the season he threw 63 innings with a 1.86 ERA.

The Tigers other free agent reliever, Fernando Rodney, is attracting attention from the Phillies. If it was going to take a multi-year deal to get either I would have preferred Lyon from a durability perspective. The Tigers are also reportedly still interested in Kevin Gregg.

Lyon will net the Tigers a sandwich pick. But for a team that can’t afford Curtis Granderson you have to wonder if they’ll be able to sign him.

Image credit – RadioFish on Flickr

As Tigers fans let us just hope that today is relatively boring. The Tigers will remain active and the roster will continue to change but hopefully we’re done with franchise-type players leaving. In the meantime here’s a recap of what happened yesterday – including some late notes – as well as a look at what may happen today.

• There was a pretty big trade that went down. Baseball America compiled scouting reports on the Tigers return and Baseball Prospectus talked with Arizona manager A.J. Hinch
• Despite the Tigers adding a few bullpen arms, they are still looking for a veteran closer. Some names linked to the Tigers are Kevin Gregg and J.J. Putz. Also don’t rule out a return of Brandon Lyon or Fernando Rodney. Tim Kurkjian reported on Baseball Tonight that he spoke with a Tigers source that said the team would be comfortable with either option.
• The Tigers have to free up a couple of roster spots when the trade is official announced (which could come today if the medical reports are signed off on). I’d look for Bobby Seay to be either traded or non-tendered.
• The Tigers signed Robinzon Diaz to a minor league contract giving them some additional depth if Alex Avila isn’t ready yet.
• Jon Morosi tweeted late last night that there has been some interest in Carlos Guillen.

The first day of the Winter Meetings has come to an end and the sun is coming up on a snowy second day. For Tigers fans there was no shortage of news and drama. To recap:

• The Tigers were tied to several relievers including Kevin Gregg, George Sherrill, and as of a late night rumor J.J. Putz
• Two of their own relievers both turned down salary arbitration in Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney
• The Tigers traded Clay Rapada to the Rangers for cash considerations
• The Tigers signed reliever Brad Thomas who had pitched the last two years in Korea and they made room for him by outrighting Zach Simons to Toledo
• Adam Everett inked a 1 year deal to return and be the heavy side of a shortstop timeshare with Ramon Santiago.
• And there was a bevy of Edwin Jackson and Curtis Granderson speculation culminating in a rumored  potential (and potentially dead) 3-way deal with the Yankees and Diamondbacks.

“Tomorrow will bring a different tone in conversations,” Dombrowski said Monday.

Day 2 figures to have much more of the same, but talks are likely to intensify as Dombrowski tries to sort out the back of their bullpen.

My feeling is that they don’t want to spend a lot, but that they want some established presence closing games. Lyon and Rodney were both in that mix had they accepted arbitration. Neither are necessarily out of that discussion but the Tigers no longer have to hold a potential spot for them.

And all those rumors swirling around the Tigers, Lynn Henning caught up with Dombrowski. Dombrowski said the deals make sense from a baseball perspective, but not to believe everything you hear.

Taking of some administrative functions, I ran things a little differently on the site with the most active (posts getting multiple updates throughout the day) or relevant posts staying at the top of the list with a carousel of recent posts at the very top. Does this work for people or should I return to straight reverse-chronological?

As a reminder, there are many ways to follow the Winter Meetings at the Detroit Tigers Weblog

The Tigers bullpen has a few vacancies for the time being with both Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney turning down their arbitration offers. Both are looking for multi-year deals and both will likely get them and I’d guess one of them comes back to Detroit. If they don’t the Tigers will get a compensatory “sandwich” pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds for each player.

Only three players accepted arbitration offers. Rafael Soriano is returning to what is now a crowded pen in Atlanta. Rafael Betancourt is staying in Colorado. And most unfortunate for Tigers fans was Carl Pavano’s decision to accept the Twins offer.

The Tigers presumably want to bring Brandon Lyon back. Brandon Lyon would like a multi-year deal. I don’t think these things are mutually exclusive, but Lyon has to make a decision tonight on whether or not to accept arbitration.

Lyon will likely receive more than a one year contract from somewhere so it’s little surprise that Lyon is expected to turn down the arbitration offer. Of course one his early suitors, the Philadelphia Phillies are now believed to be out of the running because they deem him too expensive.

The Tigers decided to offer arbitration to relievers Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney, but not to take the risk with second baseman Placido Polanco. We didn’t really learn too much by these moves that we weren’t already expecting. If nobody were offered it may have signaled that the Tigers were as poor as everyone speculated. If everyone were offered it would either mean the Tigers weren’t really financially restricted or that Scott Sizemore’s injury wouldn’t allow him to be ready. Instead we’re somewhere in the middle.

The good news with Lyon and Rodney is that the Tigers stand to gain high draft picks if either player is signed by another team. If they accept arbitration the Tigers will have a couple relievers on one year deals for about $5 million apiece. However, Dave Dombrowski doesn’t expect either player to accept but he also didn’t rule out signing either player. With Lyon in particular I could see the team willing to sign him to a 2 year deal.

With Polanco it is one of those tough decisions, but one that is right. Polanco was part of the renaissance of baseball in Detroit and was an easy guy to root for. He played hard, never complained, and was remarkably steady. And while he was probably overrated by many fans for his batting average, he was the guy I felt most comfortable with at the plate in a key situation (yes, I know his career .307 BAISP isn’t appreciably different than his overall .303 BA it is still a pretty good clip and the fact that he’d find a way to put the ball in play made me “feel” better).

But for a change the Tigers actually have a position player prospect poised to take over a position of need in Scott Sizemore. He isn’t being rushed or pushed up for a spark or as an injury replacement. Scouts feel he can hit at the big league level now and his minor league numbers show he can transfer his tools to production.

Now the decision to let Polanco go is different than the decision to offer him arbitration. By not offering him arbitration Polanco will not fetch the team additional draft picks. The lack of a compensation pick also makes Polanco much more attractive to potential suitors. So when he ultimately signs a 2-3 year deal with someone, there will be complaints that the Tigers missed out. The complainers though have to realize that Polanco’s market shrinks with a compensation pick attached and that multi-year offer likely wouldn’t be there.

The Tuesday deadline for teams to offer their departing free agents arbitration is approaching. The Tigers have three cases that are garnering some attention in Placido Polanco, Brandon Lyon, and Fernando Rodney.

Placido Polanco

The Polanco situation is the most delicate. The Tigers have Scott Sizemore ready to take over second base (provided his ankle heals in time). Polanco is also a Type A free agent meaning that if the Tigers offer arbitration and Polanco signs elsewhere the Tigers would net a first (or second) round pick from the signing team as well as a supplemental pick in between the first and second rounds.

Polanco is likely to garner enough attention and come at an affordable enough price that he could net himself a multiyear contract, except for that pesky compensation pick. I would be surprised if many teams would be willing to sacrifice a top pick for the right to sign a 34 year old second baseman who doesn’t hit for power and doesn’t take a lot of walks. Polanco’s value is tied specifically to his batting average and his defensive ability. Both are items that are at risk of decline given his age.

Then there is the payroll issue. While I don’t buy the fire sale talk I do buy the theory that the Tigers have limited financial flexibility. Polanco and his likely $5-6 million salary aren’t prohibitive in general, but when there is a replacement who stands to make $400,000 that is a sizable cost.

Much like the Edgar Renteria situation last year, the Tigers aren’t going to gamble on Polanco signing somewhere else to get the draft picks. If the Tigers offer him arbitration it’s because they want to bring him back, not to get the compensatory picks.

It isn’t Dave Dombrowski’s pattern to offer just to get draft picks, and he hasn’t rolled the dice like that in his Detroit tenure. The Tigers did receive a sandwich pick for Jamie Walker, but he was signed by another team before the deadline.

The relievers

The cases of Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney are considerably simpler. Both are Type B free agents meaning that it is only a supplemental pick the Tigers would earn and the signing team wouldn’t have to surrender anything. An offer of arbitration by the Tigers wouldn’t cut into the market value for either.

Lyon has expressed his desire for a multi-year deal. The Tigers would probably love to have him on a one year deal, but may pursue a 2 year deal with him as well. He likely wouldn’t make significantly more than he did this past season, and while I’m not big on spending big money on the bullpen and I think “veteran presence” is often over-valued, there is something to be said for the stability that Lyon would bring. In other words I fully expect Lyon to get an arbitration offer. There really isn’t a worst case here (unless the Tigers sign him and he gets injured).

Fernando Rodney on the other hand I would expect to be a long shot. I’ve been a Rodney supporter because when he’s healthy he can be an effective pitcher. The trouble is he’s only been healthy 2 of the last 5 seasons, and even then he isn’t a consistently dominant pitcher. There’s a thought that some team will see the big save total and ignore the fact that he walked quite a few and had pretty shaky peripherals. But other teams have access to all the same information so even with the save percentage I doubt he’ll be able to parlay that into a big contract.

The Tigers may view Rodney as a fall back plan for Lyon, but I don’t know that the Tigers have $10 million to spend on the pair of bullpen arms.

Predictions

Because of Dombrowski’s track record of not offering just to get picks, and the Tigers financial friction I’m not confident that the team will offer arbitration to more than Brandon Lyon. If they do offer it to Rodney and Polanco, it is with the intent to try and sign them. Not to just pick up extra draft picks.

For others thoughts on the Tigers arbitration decisions check out’:

• Mack Avenue Tigers
• Detroit Tiger Tales
• Lynn Henning
• John Lowe

Now that the World Series is over the 15 day free agent filing period is underway. The period gives teams an “exclusive” negotiating window in which players can talk to other teams, but not talk contract parameters. So we won’t know exactly what will happens with the Tigers quartet* of impending free agents for awhile, except that they will go through the procedure of filing for free agency.

Steve Kornacki of Mlive did some catching up with a few of the possibly future former Tigers and got their thoughts on returning.

Fernando Rodney would like to stay in Detroit but is looking for a 3 to 4 year deal. It’s safe to say that he won’t get a 3 or 4 year deal from anyone (maybe 2 years with a club option for a 3rd) so that doesn’t really clear things up.

Of course the Rodney situation is in some ways tied to Brandon Lyon’s status. Understandably Lyon would like some clarification on what his role would be if he were to sign with Detroit.

And then there is what could be the Tigers nearly-departed double play combo. Everett liked his Detroit experience (quotes in the Mlive piece) but I don’t know if he liked it enough to sign a similar one year $1 million deal like he did last year when he was coming off an injury season.

The Polanco situation is the most interesting. Scouts say Scott Sizemore is ready now to hit in the big leagues. Polanco is at a tenuous age for second baseman. Polanco is a Type A free agent which means if the Tigers offer him arbitration they would net a first round pick and a sandwich pick if he signs elsewhere. Polanco is likely to get a more lucrative deal on the open market than he would with the Tigers, but that lucrative deal likely won’t be there if it means the signing team has to surrender a draft pick. Throw in the fact that the Twins** may have interest in Polanco and the situation has a whole new layer.

*Yes, I know there are 6 Tigers free agents but Aubrey Huff and Jarrod Washburn just aren’t coming back so we’ll just assume they are gone already. Washburn in fact is already talking about his return to Seattle.

**The Twins just nabbed J.J. Hardy to play shortstop in exchange for Carlos Gomez. And just because I have no place else to put this, the White Sox traded their second baseman Chris Getz, along with Josh Fields to the Royals for Mark Teahen. Maybe.

Dave Dombrowski met with the press today and fielded questions for about an hour. Jaosn Beck, Tom Gage, and John Lowe had it covered. There is enough there to warrant about 6 posts worth of further explanation. But until that happens…

Miguel Cabrera

Dombrowski had a range of emotions about the situation, many were negative, but it wasn’t the first time he’s been in this situation in his 20 years as GM. It’s not surprising that he believes Cabrera will take the necessary steps. As for the question on whether he should have played Saturday night, that gets a little more gray. The response was:

“First of all, you have some legalities that are involved. You probably should know the rules when it comes to the Basic Agreement (the collective-bargaining agreement between the clubs and the players union).

“Secondly, we thought he was capable of going out there and playing.”

I admit to knowing nothing about the rules involved when a player has been drinking and is scheduled to play. I will say the answer was somewhat evasive in that they “thought” he was capable of playing. There was no comment on whether they thought they made the right decision.

Lloyd McClendon

Dombrowski said he was a “very good hitting coach” but he also made no commitment about the coaching staff remaining the same. I still think McClendon is gone. He could very well be a good hitting coach, but the players did not respond to him this year. Whether or not he knows what he’s doing becomes moot if it isn’t being translated to results.

Dombrowski also spoke of changing the team’s approach throughout the organization with regards to plate discipline (like increasing it). Toby Harrah is the minor league hitting coordinator so his job may be at stake as well, but when you’re talking about an organization wide change in philosophy that doesn’t bode well for the incumbent hitting coach. (I have a full McClendon post I’ve been working on for about 2 weeks so there is more coming).

The final likely dagger is probably that Dombrowski said he expects much of the offensive improvement next year to come from within, kind of like the expectation about pitching improvement going into 2009.

Free Agents

Dombrowski didn’t say much except to say he didn’t have a budget yet but that he can’t retain all the free agents. Beck astutely pointed out that Aubrey Huff and Jarrod Washburn are in that pool thought so he didn’t really tip his hand too much about the fates of Placido Polanco, Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney, and Adam Everett.

He did say that the team would likely use a rotation at the designated hitter spot which makes sense. No need to pay extra for DH’s when you have a couple on the roster already.

Jim Leyland

Okay, he didn’t say anything about Jim Leyland. But for those who think he should be fired Dombrowski said that he thought this was about an 86 win team. The team won 86 games. So in Dombrowski’s view they didn’t really under perform so I wouldn’t expect Leyland’s demise anytime soon.

Gut wrenching losses are good fodder for second guessing (and page views). My thoughts and perspective on what happened last night (some of these may sound like a defense of decisions made or not made, that’s not necessarily the intent).

1. Why take out Edwin Jackson, he was pitching awesome? Edwin Jackson had been pitching awesome, until he lost his control. For those that hate pitch counts as a reason to pull a pitcher, you should love this decision. Clearly the 89 pitches weren’t the issue. It was the fact that after peppering the strike zone all night he started falling behind hitters.

2. Why only one batter for Bobby Seay? Leyland was playing platoon advantages. Look at the righties coming up after Snider. There wasn’t a lefty in sight. Seay did his job.

3. Why not Ryan Perry then? The popular belief is that this was too much of a pressure situation for a debut. I don’t believe it, and I don’t think Leyland does either. When Zumaya debuted it was in a hold situation. He’s not afraid of that at all. And really, if Perry comes in a blows it then how many question why he was brought into a pressure situation to debut? A ton. Most questioned when Rodney and Zumaya were brought into pressure situations when first returning last year, and they’d faced those situations before. No. The real reason was because at the moment Leyland views Lyon as his second best reliever behind Fernando Rodney.

4. Why use your second best reliever in such a high leverage situation? This is the better question, and one that stat heads have been hammering on managers for for years. But if it’s not the 9th you can’t use your closer for some reason.

5. Why leave Lyon out there in the 9th? I’ve got nothing. This was stupid. Even if you let him start the inning, when he continues to struggle why not go get him. Ridiculous.

While the performances of the Tigers starters have been fairly unremarkable this spring, things are better at the back end of games. It looks like there are actual battles taking place, and in the favorable sense.

Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney, and Bobby Seay are locks for the pen leaving four spots open. Zach Miner is also a pretty solid bet, enough to pencil in at least. That leaves three spots open.

Joel Zumaya could alter that, but he is still dealing with issues with a neck cramp. He is apparently structurally sound, but he doesn’t feel good enough to throw yet. And today Jim Leyland said it was a gray area:

"I only say that because he really hasn’t pitched for two years," Leyland said. "If he had been pitching the last two years and then had a little setback like this, he might be able to get himself ready. But when a guy hasn’t pitched for that long, let me put it this way: It’s in the gray area now, unless something happens."

Now this may sound dire, but really, who was really planning on Zumaya prior to spring training? I also viewed him as a nice potential bonus.

So who are these candidates competing for the 3 spots? Ryan Perry, Casey Fien, Freddy Dolsi, Juan Rincon, Clay Rapada, Kyle Bloom, and Alfredo Figaro. In no particular order, the qualifications for each:

Ryan Perry

Certainly appealing with the 100mph fastball, and first round draft status, and the results to match so far this spring. 3.2 innings, 3 hits, 1 walk, and 4 K’s are nice. The next step is probably to get him involved early in a game against more starters.  Perry isn’t on the 40 man roster, which may work against him, or at least complicate things a little. But the Tigers are fairly aggressive in this regard and Macay McBride would likely be sacrificed.

Casey Fien

Fien was a late cut in last year’s camp due to his strike throwing ability. In his minor league career he only has 34 walks in over 160 innings. This spring he’s fanned 6 while walking none in 6 innings. He also isn’t on the 40 man, making it easy to assign him to Toledo. My guess is that’s where he starts, but would likely be a first or second choice if needed.

Freddy Dolsi

One of the incumbents, Dolsi has a couple things going for him. Big league experience, a good fastball, and a spot on the 40 man roster. Dolsi also isn’t walking guys with only one free pass in 4.2 innings, but he has given up 8 hits. Also likely headed to Toledo.

Juan Rincon

Rincon was signed as a minor league free agent and he’s doing exactly what the Tigers had hoped for. Rincon pitched a scoreless inning, his 8th of the spring today with 4 K’s and a walk. He’d also need to be placed on the 40 man roster, but I think he may be on the brink of making the team. Rincon hasn’t had success since 2006 so this may be fleeting. Might as well take advantage of it while it’s working.

Clay Rapada

Rapada stands a good chance of being the second lefty, if a second lefty is taken. Rapada also hasn’t walked anyone this spring, or been scored upon.

Kyle Bloom

Bloom only makes this run down because of his Rule 5 status. With a manager under the gun, Bloom really needed to impress to warrant a full year spot on the roster. He’s given up 6 runs in 4.1 innings and allowed 8 baserunners. Relievers can get hammered with numbers in such small sample sizes, but Bloom had little room for error. His spot on the 40 man roster will likely be used to add Fien or Perry or Rincon.

Alfredo Figaro

Figaro seems to be making an impression, especially after 3 scoreless innings in a spot start today (after Porcello was scratched for a fingernail issue – no biggie). Figaro has been a starter in the minors, but could relieve at the big league level. I was skeptical when he was added to the 40 man roster after some struggles when being promoted to Lakeland at age 23. But this spring he hasn’t allowed a run or a walk. Probably still a long shot, but doesn’t he have to be in the mix?

The Tigers will formally announce the signing of Brandon Lyon on Saturday. Terms are not immediately available but it is likely a one or two year contract. Lyon isn’t necessarily being handed the closers position, but he will definitely have a shot to claim it.

UPDATE 2:49 The deal is one year and $4.25 million with another half million in incentives. Eddie Bonine was DFA’d to make room on the 40 man roster

Lyon served as the Diamondbacks closer for the first half of 2008 before losing the job. The ERA and WHIP weren’t impressive last year, but there are a couple of quirks at play. First was a very high .355 BABIP. The second, and likely the reason for the first, is he was tremendously unlucky on ground balls. Last year 13.4% of the ground balls he allowed resulted in infield hits. To provide some context, Ichiro Suzuki has a career 12.2% mark. Suffice it to say that it was abnormally high and likely to correct itself.

The high BABIP resulted in an ERA a nearly a run higher than his FIP.

Detroit Tiger Tales also points out his clean outing rate. Even in 2008, it was higher than every current Tiger reliever other than Clay Rapada and it compares favorably to Trevor Hoffman, Takashi Saito, and Juan Cruz.

I don’t know that Brandon Lyon is the savior at closer, but the signing demonstrably improves the bullpen provided his second half struggles in 2008 were not the result of some sort of injury that could carry over to 2009.

It’s the return of DTW live. Tune in at 9:30 ET tonight and will talk Tigers as they embark on their caravan. Topics include: well the bullpen of course, Verlander’s extension, the demise of WDFN and whatever else comes up. Hope to see you back here at 9:30.

We ended up covering quite a bit in this extended (44 minutes) edition. Once we get back to a regular posting schedule I’d like to keep these a little shorter.

Links from today’s show:

• Brandon Lyon @ Fangraphs
• Tigers close to signing Lyon, Williamson
• Detroit Tiger Tales on Brandon Lyon

I think it’s clear that the Tigers bullpen situation will be an on going saga. It’s been the lead story leading up to Tigerfest and will likely hold that distinction throughout spring training (unless of course someone gets injured in the World Baseball Classic). Without an established and healthy closer available, anyone that is brought in to help the pen wouldn’t be a lock to close games anyways.

Jon Paul Morosi (who’s blogging has been top notch of late) adds some back story to the Matt Joyce and Edwin Jackson trade. It turns out B.J. Upton’s bum shoulder may have been what prevented J.J. Putz from coming to Detroit and opening up the Jackson deal. The Rays knew about Upton’s shoulder problems and didn’t want to leave themselves without a centerfielder.

You may remember that the Tigers’ best chance to acquire Putz came during three-way conversations that included the Rays and Mariners.

Seattle officials wanted a centerfielder, and they did not believe that Detroit prospect Matt Joyce could play the position on an everyday basis. So, the centerfielder would have needed to come from Tampa Bay – and the Mariners wanted Perez.

If Tampa Bay had been willing to trade Perez, it’s likely that Putz would be a Tiger right now. But the Rays were reluctant to do so, for a reason that is now apparent.

So that is how J.J. Putz slipped away. As for the rest of the closer options, the Tigers couldn’t find a fit dollars and interest wise. That leaves the Tigers looking at a group that includes Brandon Lyon, Juan Cruz, Jason Isringhausen, and Chad Cordero.

Of the three, Lyon is the only one that is healthy and is probably the safest bet. I don’t know whether he can close (he lost the job last year), but would still be a solid addition to the Tigers pen and wouldn’t cost a draft pick like Juan Cruz would. It sounds like the Tigers are still interested.

Isringhausen and Cordero are both injury reclamation projects. Cordero has the higher upside, and is attracting the attention of 10 teams. Isringhausen is probably easier to snag with 4 teams vying for his services. But Isringhausen is past his prime and really hasn’t been healthy since 2006. I do agree with Morosi that if he comes cheaply it is worth seeing what he can offer. Given the state of the bullpen, quantity is a good thing.

As each of the four players weigh their options, the Tigers do have one thing they can offer to them besides money, a very legitimate shot to be the closer.