Table of contents for The Cabrera-Willis Trade

1. Holy Freakin Crap
2. The Cabrera- Willis Trade – early returns
3. The 6 runs per game lineup
4. The New Tigers speak
5. Where should Cabrera play?
6. The Coda

What’s being said about the trade of trades…
Baseball Prospectus | Unfiltered

Four is the number of relatively cheap arbitration-eligible seasons that the Tigers are picking up between Cabrera and Willis. Half of the league is willing to bend over backward — perhaps giving up a package analogous to what the Tigers just gave up — for one season of Johan Santana. Although Willis is not the pitcher than Santana is by a long shot, he’s an excellent buy-low guy who was mostly victimized by some poor defense and some poor luck in Miami last year, and an extremely viable #2/#3 starter. And Cabrera might well be the equal of Santana in terms of 2008 value. In terms of overall value, the Tigers are getting perhaps three times as much incoming value as the Red Sox might get for one year of Santana.

Rod Allen-

It’s an incredible trade and it puts them in position to win the Central and possibly win the World Series with the talent in Detroit. It reminds me of a conversation that Mario Impemba and I had with Dave Dombrowski before last season and he said that you need to have top 5 talent at each position to compete for a championship and the Tigers have that now.

Detroit Tiger Tales-

As difficult as it is to see Miller and Maybin go, it is not too often you get a chance to acquire an elite hitter like Cabrera. Badenhop DeLaCruz and Trahern are also decent prospects but in a trade of this magnitude they are almost throw ins. The Tigers signaled in their earlier trade of top prospects Gorkys Hernadez and Jair Jurrjens for Edgar Renteria that they were going for it all in 2008 and this deal confirms it emphatically

Tigerblog -

In conclusion, this is a hard deal to digest because none of the guys that the Tigers gave up had even a full year with the big league club outside of Rabello as the team’s backup catcher. Still, I like the way this sets up the Tigers for the next couple of years at least. This should vault them over the Indians as the favorites in the Central next year and they should be at least in the top five talent wise in all of baseball so you have to be happy about that.

Keith Law

After finishing second in the league in 2007 with 887 runs scored — in a pitchers’ park, no less — the Tigers have kicked Sean Casey to the curb and replaced him with Edgar Renteria, and now they are adding Miguel Cabrera’s bat to, in effect, replace Brandon Inge’s. It’s a 70-80 run swing, and if you’re going to give up half your farm system, that’s the kind of impact you want to get in return.

Jayson Stark

The Tigers? They’re now an official baseball superpower.
They’re headed for a $120 million-plus payroll. They have a lineup deeper than the Grand Canyon. And they can run five starting pitchers out there who have each worked 200-plus innings in at least one of the last two seasons.

Scott Warheit

My last reflection is to think of all the prospects the Tigers have traded away the past two seasons in an effort to get back to the World Series. Humberto Sanchez, Anthony Clagett, and Kevin Whalen for Gary Sheffield. Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez for Edgar Reteria. Now Maybin, Miller, Rabelo, De La Cruz, Badenhop, and Trahern to Florida. That’s 11 prospects, many top of the line. And yet, the Tigers still have plenty of talent. Pitcher Rick Porcello is compared to Josh Beckett, and with position players, the Tigers have a number of interesting prospects (Danny Worth and Scott Sizemore among them). Just shows you what an amazing job of amassing talent Dave Dombrowski has done.

Big Al

You just got to make that deal. You just have to. Dave Dombrowski would have been negligent otherwise.

I don’t know how you can not like this trade. The Tigers had already totally committed to a “Win now” philosophy with the Renteria trade. They may have a 2 year window to make a serious run at winning the World Series. There is no “Tomorrow.” With the Tigers, there is only today. And today, they elevated themselves to the level of New York and Boston, if not higher.

More to come…

Table of contents for The Cabrera-Willis Trade

1. Holy Freakin Crap
2. The Cabrera- Willis Trade – early returns
3. The 6 runs per game lineup
4. The New Tigers speak
5. Where should Cabrera play?
6. The Coda

The Tigers have pulled off a franchise altering trade today sending former first round picks Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller, along with Mike Rabelo and 3 minor league pitchers to the Florida Marlins for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis.

When Dave Dombrowski decides to go for it, boy does he go for it. Like in 1997 when he loaded up for a run at the World Series, Dombrowski has quickly put together what has to be considered the best line up in all of baseball. To do it they had to give up 2 of the blue-est of blue chippers. Normally I frown on such a move, but rarely do you get in return a 24 year old with 138 career home runs and a 313/388/542 line in 2700 at-bats either. The Tigers had to have emptied their farm system, but this isn’t for a player on the wrong side of 30. This is someone who has yet to enter his peak. The Tigers have to sign him to a long term deal for this to work, but I can’t imagine they make this trade without some sort of frame work in place.

As for Dontrelle Willis, his 5+ ERA in a pitchers park in the NL is certainly disconcerting. But the Tigers were giving up a player that was likely to be in their rotation next year, and they had to fill that spot and there are certainly worse ways to do it than with Willis.

The Tigers gave up some seriously talented players, but if you’re going to do it, do it the way the Tigers did and get a couple guys in their mid 20′s in return. Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller are tremendous prospects, but Cabrera is a rare, rare player and for the Tigers to acquire him is a major coup.

As for the other 3 pitchers, Jon Paul Morosi is reporting that they are Burke Badenhop, Dallas Trahern, and Eulogio De La Cruz. Trahern is the prize of this group. He’s a heavy groundball pitcher who was set to pitch for AAA Toledo this year, and was a decent bet to reach the majors in 2008. De La Cruz we saw last year, and he has the potential and stuff to strike out a ton of guys, but he’s still searching for consistency.

The Tigers still have Rick Porcello, who couldn’t be traded yet, and is now the clear top prospect in the system. I’m also pleasantly surprised the Tigers didn’t have to move Jeff Larish, Mike Hollimon, and especially James Skelton.

As for what happens next, the Tigers just have to sign Cabrera long term. They also have some of their own players to move. Cabrera is thought of as a third baseman, but he could play left as well. I don’t know where he’ll play for Detroit and it depends on who they can get for Brandon Inge probably. I know that the Tigers just traded for Jacque Jones, but I don’t think they are married to him.

I applaud Dombrowski and the Tigers for pulling this off. The Tigers have the pieces in place to be a very very special team this year and I can’t wait for spring training. I’ll have more on the trade over the next couple of days.

The Winter Meetings kicked off today. My fellow bloggers have already commented on how it will be a fairly quiet meetings for the Tigers. That’s what happens when you fill your biggest needs within a couple weeks of the end of the season.

Still, I don’t think the Tigers are done this offseason. While I don’t expect big moves from Detroit during the Winter Meetings, there is still work to be done. The Tigers still have a number of players to tender contracts to. There are currently only 16 members of the team who are signed, and likely to be on the 25 man roster. At least two of those players could be in for a substantial payday.

Curtis Granderson is entering his last year of indentured servitude. The Tigers could sign him for half a million and be done with it. However, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a 5 year deal which would buy him out of his arbitration years and first year of free agency. That would gain the team cost certainty through 2012 which also coincide with the years where he figures to be in his prime.

Nate Roberston is entering his 2nd year of arbitration eligibility. I’d expect that the Tigers ink him to a 2 or 3 year deal. Again, the Tigers would gain cost certainty. And with a two or three year deal it’s unlikely that Robertson would be blocking anyone. The Tigers will need a starter to replace Kenny Rogers next year, so even if a young pitcher steps up there will be room.

The last player who could see an extended deal is Justin Verlander, but I don’t see it this year. Verlander is still signed through 2009, so there is less incentive to lock him up.

The other reason I don’t think they are done, is because the offseason has it’s share of mixed messages. The Tigers big move was the Edgar Renteria trade which has win-now written all over it. And despite what you think of Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones, one year contracts for the pair of aging players indicate that the team is not only in win-now, but win-this-year mode.

But that can’t be it right? If the Tigers are are working with urgency, why have 2/5ths of the rotation be so questionable? Counting on Rogers for more than 150 innings given his age is risky. Counting on a combination of Andrew Miller/Chad Durbin/Yorman Bazardo, and who ever else is risky as well. Don’t the Tigers have to mitigate the risk of these two pieces of the rotation by bringing in somebody? It doesn’t have to be a Carlos Silva (although I wouldn’t complain). A risky pitcher coming off an injury willing to take a one year deal would be perfect. Then you’re looking at a group of pitchers to fill the back end, without relying on any one.

Dombrowski seems content to have a competition for that 5th spot, but I’m more worried about the combination of the last 2 spots.

And then there’s the bullpen. The Tigers are a little boxed in with a number of players out of options (Jose Capellan, Yorman Bazardo, Chad Durbin, Jason Grilli, Francisco Cruceta). Joel Zumaya shouldn’t be counted on this year, even if the doctors are confident, because it is unchartered territory with this injury. I like the addition of Cruceta as a low risk, high upside guy.

But Cruceta becomes a high risk guy if it means the Tigers don’t pursue other options. Fortunately, the Tigers are at least doing due diligence. Jason Beck reports that the Tigers are meeting with Octavio Dotel’s agent tonight. And they are expected to talk with Latroy Hawkins people and Beck reports that Dombrowski has been involved in preliminary trade discussions. Of course the Tigers have to move Chris Shelton in the next couple days, so maybe it’s nothing.

Kenny’s contract

The details of Rogers’ contract have been revealed. He will make an $8 million base salary with performance incentives for innings pitched. He will receive $250,000 for hitting each of the 150, 160, 170, and 180 inning plateaus. He will also receive $500,000 for reaching 190 and 200 innings meaning the total value could reach $10 million.

When I looked at what the Tigers should pay Rogers it appears that the Tigers did well. They are at the higher end, but only marginally so, in terms of guaranteed dollars. But even with the incentives the Tigers should come out ahead. If Rogers is able to pitch 200 innings the $10 million could be a steal. Given the intangible value that the team sees in Rogers this seems like a win.

PREGAME: The Tigers take another crack at Roger Clemens who they had no trouble hitting last week, they just had trouble scoring. The Tigers mustered 10 hits in 6 innings, but only 2 runs thanks to 8 strikeouts which all seemed to come with guys on base.

For the Tigers it will be Andrew Miller making his fast start since going on the DL on August 4th. Despite the great stuff, Miller struggles a little to put guys away and his lack of command can lead to hefty pitch counts. He hasn’t recorded an out after the 5th inning since July 6th.

I’ll be heading down to this game, and hopefully the result will be similar to when I saw Clemens pitch against the Tigers last year.

Who’s your Tiger tonight? I’m going out on a limb and going with Brandon Inge.

Game Time 7:05
NYY @ DET, Friday, August 24, 2007 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

POSTGAME: You know you got your money’s worth when on the way home from a game you start to ponder where it ranks in terms of the greatest games you’ve ever witnessed live. When you’re doing at at 4:00am, you know it’s a special situation.

First things first, thanks to all of you for the awesome comments throughout the game last night. I was reading them on my Blackberry throughout the night and was amazed so many of us were toughing it out together.

On to the game, I made several good decisions last night. First, I had an unused ticket and was really debating taking my 6 year old son. I ended up not doing it, because while I love him to death and love going to games with him, this was the first time since Opening Day I had plans to go with my friends and I just didn’t want to be a dad that night. Second, we took a couple cars to the game because one friend had commitments in the morning and we didn’t know how late he’d want to stay. Worked out great with the one friend being able to leave at 8:30 when he recognized any baseball would be way late. So those staying were happy to be stayinig, and no one had to leave prematurely.

The theme for the night was pretty much, “there’s weird s*** happening tonight” and that held up throughout the game. Witness:

• Placido Polanco makes an error. That never happens.
• Pudge battles back from an 0-2 count to take a walk. That never happens.
• The game started at 11:05.
• Jason Grilli pitches not only a scoreless inning in Comerica Park, but he does it uneventfully.
• Pudge took another walk. Intentional and all, but still.
• I’m drinking coffee at a game in August – normally an activity reserved for those cold nights in April or September

So there we were at 2:30 in the morning concocting the most improbable ways for the Tigers to pull this off. Like having the Tigers load the bases against Mariano Rivera and then have Inge come through. Well, that one got half way there, and only some bad luck kept it from coming through.

Still the crowd stayed, and sure it was whittled down after a while. After that 10th inning the numbers really dwindled and I said to the usher, this place looks like 2003 right now. But it sounded much louder. And at that point everyone had formed this big kind of friendship, the kind of friendship that can only come from staying at a ballpark until ridiculous hours of the morning as everyone individually questions their sanity for staying and yet being too afraid to leave and miss something. It was kind of like one of those West Coast Red Wing playoff games that goes into OT, and you think to yourself “I can’t quit now, I’ve made it this far.”

Fortunately for those who stayed, they got the pay off. After a nice walk by Polanco it looked like a hit and run sign was missed with Sean Casey up and Polanco was picked off. And the Tigers went from a runner on 1 out situation to a 2 out none on situation. As so often is the case, the next batter gets a single after the runner is wiped off the bases.

I was imploring Leyland to pinch run for Casey, figuring that a gapper would go to waste with Casey on the basepaths. Instead Leyland stuck with Casey who managed to go first to third with relative ease on a blooper. Setting the stage for the Carlos Guillen. When he hit it I didn’t know if it was gone. I just new it was well hit and I didn’t care if it were a homer, I just wanted it to get over Matsui’s head. When it landed on the roof of the bullpen it was euphoria, it was relief, it was “I get to go home now, but I’m not tired anymore,” it was so worth it all.

I know the above thoughts are incoherent, but I’m working on a couple hours of sleep right now. For the bullets:

• I saw a player hit triples in consecutive innings as Granderson hit #20 and #21 which were the 4th and 5th that I’ve witnessed in person this year.
• Chants of MVP rang out with Ordonez at the dish, and on a night where he was a triple short of the cycle he certainly continues to build his case.
• When Jason Grilli came into the game, they announced him and instantly cut to very loud music making any boos that may have been there indistinguishable. And Grilli certainly earned some cheers with his performance.
• Cameron Maybin is fast. Really fast. He stole a base on a pitch out and it wasn’t even close.
• Can’t say too much about the strike zone from my vantage point, but the players on both teams didn’t seem to happy.
• Lots of very patient at-bats tonight, and it paid of with 8 walks.
• Andrew Miller, still not efficient with 100 pitches thrown in 4 1/3 innings.
• As long as the game went, the bullpen should be okay for today with only Fernando Rodney and Tim Byrdak being unavailable. Everybody else just went 1 inning. Hopefully Bondo can go 7 or 8 strong though so that Leyland doesn’t have to dip too far in.
• Brandon Inge had some very nice at-bats tonight, picking up 2 walks and a hard luck line out with the bases loaded. What are ya gonna do about that one?

I don’t know if this win will be the start of something or not. No matter how exciting last night was, the team could still very well be gassed tonight and have a hangover. Regardless, the hometown team gave the hometown fans a memory for a lifetime on a stormy August night. The nice thing is that because they won we can debate signature wins and such, instead of lamenting “why did they even start that game and do that to the fans.” Funny how one swing can totally change your feelings about an evening.

On Sunday, June 24th Andrew Miller took center stage on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball and promptly pitched 6 shut out innings. Miller only allowed 4 hits and 2 walks and was never really threatened. Was this a dominant performance by a young stud pitcher, or just another day at the office for the slumping Braves? I don’t know if we can really say one way or the other, but with enhanced gameday data we can at least get some additional information.

If you are a new reader, MLB’s new gameday has a series of cameras set up in 8 major league parks that captures pitch speed, location, trajectory, and release point. I’ve used this data to look at Joel Zumaya and Jeremy Bonderman in the past. Others have looked at the consistency in data between parks, how pitches sink, and a variety of other studies. But back to the task at hand.

The first thing to look at the mix of pitches that Andrew Miller was throwing. If you watched the game, it was clear that Miller was relying on his fastball. In fact, only 7 of the 84 pitches that gameday tracked were less than 83mph. The rest of the time Andrew Miller was throwing between 87 and 94mph for the most part.

Joe Morgan repeatedly commented that Andrew Miller was throwing 2 different fastballs, and if you look at the plot of pitch speeds it does look possible. So there were a couple different speeds, but did they have different movement? The chart below shows the horizontal and vertical movement. The movement is defined as the distance from where the pitch crossed the plate, and where a hypothetical pitch with no spin would have crossed the plate. A pitch with no spin would be expected to go down due to gravity, but the backspin on the fastball helps to counteract that. So the positive value in vertical movement doesn’t mean the ball rises, just that it drops less than a pitch with no backspin.

The couple of breaking pitches that Miller threw really stand out. But focusing on the fastballs, by looking at the movement it does appear that there was a little variation. There was a cluster of pitches that have about 3 to 6 inches of vertical movement and a little more tailing and then another cluster that had 6-10 inches of vertical movement and were straighter. Presumably the former would be the 2 seamer and the latter would be the 4 seamer. What is a little surprising is that he mixed the speeds between the two pitches. He threw the straigher pitch slower and the sinking pitch faster. It makes for less delineation between the 2 pitches.

As a point of comparison, here is Kenny Rogers chart from just 2 nights before:

Now of course Rogers has a different repertoire so this isn’t a great comparison, but the pitch types become pretty distinct. I don’t know if in Miller’s case the lack of distinction was by design, or if it comes from still refining his pitches but it did prove effective.

So we know that Miller was relying on his fastball, that may have in fact been 2 different fastballs. Still though, it would be tough to keep a team off the board without throwing a breaking or offspeed pitch all night. So maybe Miller was a master of control. Here’s a chart of where he threw the pitches (from the catcher’s perspective).

What I notice from the chart is that he didn’t get a lot of swings and balls that weren’t right near the strike zone. Without breaking pitches, hitters were less inclined to chase. At the same time he did do a nice job getting strikes on the inner half to right handers.

The next chart shows Kenny Rogers outing from Friday. You can see that he hardly threw the fastball over the middle of the plate. He picked up a ton of strikes that were well out of the strike zone and was consistently working in the bottom half.

And one final item is to look at what happened to each of those pitches that Miller threw:

• 36 Balls
• 17 Called Strikes
• 15 Fouls
• 20 in play
• 0 Swings & Misses

Despite the raw stuff, Miller didn’t induce a single swing and miss. Now granted there wasn’t much solid contact either.

In the end I’m less inclined to call that effort a dominating performance. It was certainly a strong outing, and it’s probably a testament to his fastball(s) that he was able to do what he did with only one pitch. The Atlanta Braves came into that game slumping, and facing Miller certainly did nothing to help them out of it. He still had good movement on the fastball, plus with his frame and delivery he’ll still give the opposition fits. Plus this was just one start, and he has thrown the slider/curve more in the past. So I’m not predicting doom and gloom, but he’ll have to find a way to command his secondary pithces.