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Tiger Links

Some Detroit Tiger related links from the last few days that you might have missed:

  • Baseball Analysts on the Central: Aaron Gleeman and the Cheat join Rich and Bryan to break down the AL Central. The consensus was that the Tigers are probably the 4th best team in a pretty good division.

    Aaron: Right. Detroit doesn’t have any real stars, but I could see them being average or better at every position.

    Bryan: Seems to me the Twins and Tigers will be battling for having the third and fourth offenses in the division, but the Twins strength in pitching puts them way ahead.

    Cheat: I’d rate the Tigers offense ahead of the Twins, but your point still stands. The difference in pitching is too much to overcome.

    Bryan: It seems funny to say that in the AL Central that a good offense and mediocre pitching staff doesn’t have a ton of hope for third. That’s new.

    Aaron: Yeah. This Tigers team could have competed for the division title a couple years ago.

  • Love for Craig Monroe: Greg Eno is a big fan of Craig Monroe and would like to see him inked to a long term contract.

    So DD better stop fiddling around and keep Monroe in a Tigers uniform for years to come. He has the strength to muscle the ball over Comerica Park’s distant walls in left and left-center field. He doesn’t drop the ball with his glove, and can throw it with some accuracy and zip. He is also another rarity among Tigers players of late: he is not baseball stupid.

    Now I like Greg as a writer, and I like Craig Monroe, but I can’t agree here. Monroe’s production is fairly typical, not extraordinary. He has two more years of arbitration eligibility and there is no need to sign him to a long term deal. I love his work ethic, his attitude, and I have no desire to see him leave. However, he is probably also one of the more replaceable players on the roster.

  • Former Tigers, current Nationals: Jason Beck writes about the former Tigers who find themselves with the Washington Nationals. The contingent includes Robert Fick, Damian Jackson, Mike DiFelice, Andrew Good, George Lombard and Brandon Harper.
  • A Rockies fan bashes Detroit: Bad Altitude, a member of the Baseball Toaster family has been preparing Hastily Assembled Previews for various teams. He’s not big on Detroit to say the least:

    It’s almost besides the point to try and predict a record or finish for the Tigers in 2006, because for teams with no chance of contending records are looked to for signs of progress. If the Rockies win 75 games this year, that’ll be a nice little accomplishment and pats on the back will be due all ’round. If Detroit wins 75 games in ’06, or 84, or 64, who cares, because it’ll be the exact same story in 2007. And the year after that…and the year after that…. They’re duking it out with Baltimore for the coveted title of Worst Organization in MLB (Kansas City is disqualified as they haven’t been actively trying to field a major league team for some time now). I kind of wish they were in our division.

    Now the author qualified it as a hastily assembled preview, and if I tried to put quicly put together several hundred words about a team outside of the Central I would struggle. Still, I’m not impressed with the work here. He criticizes the Tigers for overspending on Rogers (which they probably did), for sticking with the mainstays in the rotation (Bonderman, Robertson, Maroth), and for rushing Verlander and Zumaya. I’m really not sure who he invisions pitching in Detroit. They can’t use their highly touted prospects, they can’t use the average, cheap, homegrown players they have, and they can’t sign free agents.

    Dombrowski and the Tigers are certainly open to criticism. The Rogers, Jones, and Ordonez contracts all fall in the category of excessive no matter what your criteria is. However, at least in the case of Rogers and Jones the length of the contracts don’t seem to prohibit anything else (spending, player promotions/development). If you want to call them the worst organization in baseball for the totality of the last 12 years that is fine, and difficult to argue. To base it on the last 2 seasons just doesn’t make sense.

  • BA’s Top 50 Okay, so you probably didn’t miss this one. In case you hadn’t heard, 3 Tigers made the top 50. Justin Verlander checked in at 8, followed by Cameron Maybin at 31, and Joel Zumaya at 35. I happen to think that Zumaya is probably ranked a little low, but at the same time I don’t know enough about other teams prospects to really complain to much. In any case, 3 players in the Top 50 is probably pretty good for one of the worst organizations in baseball.

The Big Three

John Sickels has a “Prospect Smackdown” with the big 3 righthanded prospects for 2006: Chad Billingsley, Matt Cain, and Justin Verlander. Sickels ranks them

  1. Verlander
  2. Cain
  3. Billingsley

He gives the edge to Verlander due to Justin’s fastball’s higher peak velocity, physical stature, and minor league performance last year.

All 3 pitchers are pretty comparable, and it’s really a matter of who you ask as to how they rank. Baseball Prospectus ranks them Cain/Verlander/Billingsley. On the other hand Baseball America ranks them Billingsley/Verlander/Cain. Meanwhile, Bryan Smith from Baseball Analysts has it at Cain/Billingsley/Verlander.

Whatever the case, it’s just nice to have a Tiger in the mix for a change.
prospects, detroit tigers, baseball

Playing with PECOTA part 2

I’ve already scanned the PECOTA projections for Tiger pitchers and highlighted what I thought was most interesting. Now we’ll do the hitters.

Curtis Granderson

Lee has already done the comparison of who PECOTA thinks should be starting in centerfield for Detroit. And it has been enough of a theme here that I think I’ve beat the horse to death. But PECOTA is a fan of Granderson. Some of his more modern day comps are Luis Gonzalez, Reggie Sanders, Mel Hall, Greg Briley, Leon Durham, and Bobby Abreu. PECOTA sees him peaking in 2008 with minimal fall off in subsequent years. While his value is probably slightly inflated by his small sample defensive stardom, the kid looks like he’s for real.

Nook Logan

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that PECOTA has Logan’s breakout rate at 41% and his improve rate at 63%. So the system does project that Nook will very likely be better next year.
Continue reading Playing with PECOTA part 2

Quick Hits

Some brief notes an links as I prepare to have 14 preschoolers over for a birthday party tomorrow…

Monroe Re-ups

The Detroit Tigers avoided arbitration hearings completely this year with Craig Monroe now under contract. He signed for one year and $2.8 million. A fair deal all around, and the two sides essentially split the difference from their initial offers.

Defensive Wrap-Ups

I’ve been doing quite a bit of defensive comparisons lately, and using a bunch of metrics. Coincidentally there were a couple of articles today summarizing the various measures. Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts did a piece for SI outlining the quest for the perfect defensive measure.

In the same vein, David Gassko of the Hardball Times compared the various metrics in articles located here and here. (via Baseball Musings)

Granderson goes home

A nice article about Curtis Granderson visiting his middle school alma mater.

Tiger Stadium rotting and rocking

With Tiger Stadium playing host to Bud Bowl (a big party/concert) over Super Bowl weekend there have been a couple articles about it’s current state. ESPN had a long piece about the Stadium, and the lack of events held since the final game.

The Bud Bowl is one proposal that the city did approve. Rottach said Detroit is charging Anheuser-Busch $40,000 to rent the stadium. More important than the money, though, was the thoroughness of Anheuser-Busch’s proposal, which included a commitment to return the stadium to the exact specifications it had before.

Earlier in the week the Free Press ran a story, complete with pictures, about how run down the stadium had become. It included a picture of a tree growing in the stands, and part of a wall crumbling.

detroit, detroit tigers, baseball, tiger stadium

Shelton Game

Remember when it seemed like Chris Shelton didn’t have a position? In fact one local columnist didn’t include Shelton in last year’s Top 10 Tiger prospects because:

Shelton does not have a position and is unathletic. Last season, when he did get to play in the major leagues and rehab assignment at Toledo, he did not sting the ball. He hit well in arizona, but the caliber of competition was down this year.

Well it turns out that Shelton can play first base. According to PMR, he was a pretty average fielder last year, and given his offensive production, average defense is quite sufficient. (While he made more outs than expected, he fell in the middle of the pack). What’s more is that he was a superior defender compared to Carlos Pena.

Player InPlay Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Difference
Chris B Shelton 2337 152 146.52 0.065 0.063 0.00234
Carlos Pena 1363 98 105.67 0.072 0.078 -0.00563

Similar to what I did in the Granderson/Logan comparison post, the numbers were interesting enough that I wanted to compare range stats between the two.

Category Pena Shelton
Innings 429.1 738.1
Zone Rating .798 .857
Range Factor 9.50 10.21
FRAA -2 0

Shelton comes out on top is every category. I’m not sure if everyone was just flat wrong in Shelton’s ability, or if he improved his game through a ton of hard work, but the results are encouraging. Now what isn’t included in first basemen range is the footwork around the bag. I’m not sure how it could even be quantified, but just from watching that seems to be an area where Pena excels.

While I still want to see Pena get at-bats, it is becoming more and more difficult to find reasons to take Shelton out of the lineup.
detroit tigers, chris shelton, carlos pena, baseball

Tigerfest 2006

Just think if they were good

Tigerfest 2006I took in Tigerfest today with my family. It was my first Tigerfest in 4 years, and I came away amazed at how much people love the Tigers. We parked at Grand Circus Park and took the people mover to Joe Louis Arena where we looked out and saw several thousand people waiting to get inside. This was 10 minutes before it was set to open. Since we had two little ones with us, we decided to just do another loop on the people mover rather than wait in the cold.

By the time we returned the crowd had entered the Joe, but there was still a 20 minute wait to even buy tickets. The support the Tigers receive is tremendous, and I can’t help but wonder what things would be like in Detroit if they had given fans any reason to cheer in the last twelve years.
Continue reading Tigerfest 2006

Projected Lineup

Here are the Detroit Tigers starters as projected by ESPN.

C: Ivan Rodriguez
1B: Carlos Pena
2B:  Placido Polanco
SS:  Carlos Guillen
3B:  Brandon Inge
LF:  Craig Monroe
CF:  Nook Logan
RF:  Magglio Ordonez

SP1:  Jeremy Bonderman
SP2:  Kenny Rogers
SP3:  Mike Maroth
SP4:  Nate Robertson
SP5:  Justin Verlander/Wilfredo Ledezma

CL:  Todd Jones

A few comments:

  • While I”m not ready to write off Wil Ledezma based on his struggles last year, I don’t really see a pitching rotation with 4 southpaws
  • Dmitri Young is absent.  I understand the numbers crunch, and the site just listed one player at each position.  However, I don’t see Carlos Pena as the clear cut starter.  Provided Young, Shelton, and Pena all break camp, Pena will definitely get starts at first base.  But everything I’ve heard has Shelton as the starter.  In any case Jim Leyland will have some nice platoon options.  As for Pena versus Shelton defensively, I’m not sure that Pena is really better.
  • Nook Logan does have value on a Major League roster, but I don’t see anyway he should be starting over Curtis Granderson.  The occasional start against left hand pitching and late inning use as a pinch runner /defensive replacement are the best bets for Logan.

baseball

DTW Year in Review

The post that was 12 months in the making, and 45 minutes in the writing – the Year in Review. (seriously, there is NO Tiger news to report) As you’ve probably realized if you’ve been reading this site for awhile, I like statistics. With that, let’s take a look back:

  • Posts: 210
  • Words: 103,537(not counting this post)
  • Comments: 1156
  • Interviews: 3
  • Visits: 72,000+
  • Page Views: 100,000+
  • Redesigns: 1

I thought about counting up the graphs and charts, but then I was just too lazy.

The most commented on posts were the Kenny Rogers signing, Ugueth Urbina being traded, and our wild and crazy prediction thread.

I’d like to thank all of you who have been here all year, and everybody else who began reading along the way. Thanks for taking the time to leave comments and get the discussions moving. This year has by far been my most successful year, if you define success as visits and recognition that is. My traffic increased by about 300% this year. All of that increase of course came from you coming back again and again, and telling your friends and thanks for that.

But you had to find this place in the first place, and that was faciliated by a number of people. Sean Baligian gave me several mentions on WDFN, and Mike Wendland wrote about the site in the Free Press. Most of my traffic though came from the generous linking of others. David Pinto, Seth Stohs, Geoff Young, Dave Studeman and so many others helped to drive considerable traffic to this site. There are many, many more who linked to me, and to list them all would take the rest of the day. I’d also like to thank Scott at Motown Sports for the opportunity to write for his site, and at the same time promote mine.

I’d also like to thank Dave Dombrowski, Ernie Harwell, and Dan Dickerson for being so generous in their time and their willingness to participate in interviews. This site is still pretty small in the grand scheme of things, but it is a little bigger with a little more credibility (I think) thanks to those interviews.

And of course there is the Detroit/Tiger blogging community (DIBS) who have all been so supportive of this site and each other. I look forward to even more interaction and cross-site discussion in 2006. We’ve got some ideas to grow DIBS in membership, and in terms of community, that I hope we can bring to fruition.

Thanks for a great year, and I’m really looking forward to 2006.

Now if only we can get a winning record one of these years…

New Look & New Digs

Well, after a couple days of intense computer time and the scorn of Mrs. Billfer, DTW has received an upgrade. In addition to the redesign which is glaringly obvious, I moved the blog from Blogger to WordPress. Here’s what I’m hoping the benefits will be:

  • Improved readability: The site is now optimized for a 1024X768 resolution, as opposed to not being optimized for any resolution before. For the 85% of you with monitors bigger than 800X600 this should mean more usable real estate. Oh yeah, the humongous banner is now smaller.
  • Better integrated commenting: The comments will now appear right on the page with the post. The pop-up is gone. Hopefully this will make it easier for you guys to participate in the discussion. The benefit to me is that your comments will appear on the page – which gives the site more content for search engines to puruse. Thankfully, I was able to import all 1353 of your comments so none were lost.
  • Improved Navigation: It should be easier for you to find things on the site. It will be easier to move between posts, and there will be better searching. Additionally, WordPress offers category support. Now currently nothing is categorized (and the chances of me going back through the various posts is slim), but newer posts will be categorized logically.

The benefits for me are that everything becomes easier. My blog had simply outgrown Blogger, so even simple changes had become cumbersome. The new design also allows for more & better ad placement. I hope the ads don’t offend anyone. However, I spend a great deal of time on this site, so if I can make a couple bucks I’m going to try.

Now the drawbacks of major overhauls are that sometimes things break. If you have a 800×600 monitor, and go to an older post with a bigger picture/table, things will be screwy. I apologize for that, and please let me know if you see anything. Also, the import didn’t treat some tables kindly. I’ve manually fixed some already, but again, if you find anything let me know the post that’s giving you the problems.

I think that all the links to old content should still work. If you’re coming to really old content, you may hit a page that looks like the old design. I wasn’t able to line up all the links exactly, so I kept a couple old pieces around.

With that, I look forward to your feedback.

And most importantly, have a great holiday season! I’ll be back with more posts next week.

Suggested Reading and Sadness

All’s quiet in Tiger land, and looks to remain that way. Tomorrow (Tuesday) is the tender deadline, and really the only player in question for Detroit is Carlos Pena. I fully expect the Tigers to offer Pena a contract, because if they weren’t planning on it they could have actually retained a player in the Rule 5 draft. Plus, Pena is too good to let walk – although a previous regime let Tony Clark go for nothing.

Other arbitration eligible players such as Brandon Inge, Craig Monroe, and Mike Maroth will most assuredly be offered contracts.

Although things are relatively quiet, my fellow bloggers are keeping things interesting. Brian has posted a tidy recap of the Tiger’s 1901 season. Fortunately there are a lot of Tiger seasons so if Brian gets favorable reviews he might do this some more.

And if you want to get geeky instead of historical, Lee continues his series looking at run production.

Don
Finally, for those who were curious about the family situation I mentioned on Friday, my father-in-law passed away rather unexpectedly. He had some health issues, but his passing took everyone by surprise.

While Don didn’t read this site, he wasn’t so much a computer guy, he was a huge baseball fan. Like so many from his generation and the Detroit area, he spent the majority of summer months with Ernie Harwell plugged into his ear.

During the visitation, one of Don’s old high school classmates reminisced that “Don was a heck of a pitcher, probably the best player on our team.” Don instilled jis love of baseball (and many, many, more admirable traits) in his two sons, and his youngest daughter (aka Mrs. Billfer) who all played as kids.

Don had a tremendous work ethic, and it was a race to see what would happen first, retirement or age 70 – 70 won. Don didn’t argue, but he didn’t give in. He spoke volumes without saying hardly anything. He didn’t ask for help, but always offered it. In short a great man.

After suffering several strokes, Don was relegated to a wheel chair and while his mind was intact, his speech wasn’t. For a proud, self-sufficient man the last couple years were probably very difficult for him, even moreso because he couldn’t communicate. Ultimately, he’s happier now in heaven with his wife who passed away just last year, but it doesn’t mean that those he left behind aren’t hurting.

Thank you for reading this, learning a little bit about Don, and indulging me this off-topic post.

Weekend Open Thread

Due to some family related issues, I probably won’t be posting this weekend. However, I had a couple of things to cover:

1. Based on feedback I changed the look of the comments, they should be easier to read and they now match the site colors.

2. I’m in need of help with CSS for the redesign (it’s not massive). I think I get it all figured out, but then it doesn’t work in IE. So I fix it in IE, and break it in Firefox. I’m just not bright enough and have spent too much time with trial and error. If you are a wiz with floats and such and would be willing to donate 30 minutes to help me, please email me at bill@detroittigersweblog.com

Finally, while I said this was an open thread I’ll suggest a topic:
Based on comments others have made in various posts, what about Nomar Garciaparra? Is he worth Kenny Rogers money (as Tim put it)? Do you guarantee a second year or work out a vesting option (be wary based on what happened with Dmitri Young)? Is it worth having him if it means giving up Carlos Pena?

Mike Illitch Talks

An interview with Mike Illitch was circulating on AP today (oddly enough though not in Detroit papers). In the interview Illitch concedes he screwed up in his GM hirings when he bought the team after Bill Lajoie said no. He also concedes that he’s not happy with his tenure.

“I’m running out of time with the Tigers – we’re in our 13th year,” Ilitch said Tuesday in an interview with The Associated Press. “If we hit the 15-year mark, I’ll be very concerned.”

Illitch has taken a lot of criticism for his ownership of the Tigers. Quite frankly given the team’s record it is deserved. When he clamped down the payroll after the 2000 season he rightly took a lot of flack. The team seemed to be changing direction each year. However, the criticism that he doesn’t care about the Tigers isn’t fair. Given his spending the last 3 offseason it is clear he was embarrased by the disaster that was 2003.

The article concludes with Illitch wanting to spend more money – if the team is competitive:

“If we can make a significant improvement this year, then I can treat it like I treated the Red Wings, and that would be, `OK, you’ve shown me something now, we are legitimate contenders, so whatever you need you’re going to get.’ But you’ve got to work yourself up to that,” he said. “We’ve got a lot of tradition and we’ve got a lot of baseball fans out there just waiting for something good for the city and baseball.”

Bases Contributed Percentage
New Tiger blog Tiger Town is playing with a new stat called bases contributed percentage. The stat combines baserunning with other offensive metrics to provide a more complete picture. Amongst Tigers Chris Shelton still fairs best followed by Carlos Pena and Curtis Granderson. My only quibble with the stat is that Ron removes HBP. Considering it is an offensive event, that some players are more adept at I think it should probably be included.

In any case, it is great to see so much fresh Tiger writing.