It’s Sunday evening and this concludes my foray into full time blogging. I took this week off to delve into the winter meetings and cover them to the best of my ability. It proved to be an especially eventful week for Tigers fans and this blog. With that we’ll do one last set of hot stove rumors and news nuggets and a couple other thoughts as well.

• Fernando Rodney seems to have priced himself out of 2010. His reported asking price of 3 years and $30 million has a retro-2007 feel to it.
• Saturday at midnight was the non-tender deadline – or the tender deadline depending on how you look at it. The Tigers tendered contracts to all their eligible players. I was surprised to see Bobby Seay, who will likely make $2 million next year, tendered given the Tigers impetus to shed payroll and the surplus of lefty relievers.
• Here is the complete list of non-tenders. One name that will receive some consideration is Kelley Johnson. Baseball Digest Daily takes a look to see if he has anything left to offer.
• The Tigers haven’t decided on Phil Coke’s role for 2010, but River Ave Blues doesn’t think starter would be a good choice.
• There is a pretty in depth analysis of Austin Jackson’s swing mechanics at Project Prospect (h/t Kurt who is now at Bless You Boys).
• Speaking of which, Ian Casselberry has run the good ship BYB for the last 3 years and he’s done a tremendous job. He’s stepping down, but putting the site into the more-than-capable hands of Kurt Mensching. Kurt you may know as the proprietor of Mack Avenue Tigers. Best wishes to Ian and good luck to Kurt.
• Juan Pierre, who the Tigers were linked to in a potential 3 team deal involving Carlos Guillen, may also be a target of the White Sox.
• Marcus Thames is attracting attention from the Indians and the Blue Jays.

Some final thoughts

On the trade: I have been critical of the deal on a number of fronts. I stand behind that. I don’t think the Tigers got the short end of the deal though. I’m excited to see what Austin Jackson can do and seeing Max Scherzer join the top of the rotation should mean the Tigers are in games the majority of the time. I also hope for those that have an emotional reaction to the trade they don’t take it out on the new players, or on the players who have the hefty contracts. Ordonez earned his contract and is entitled to the money. Jackson won’t be Granderson next year and measuring his accomplishments against Granderson’s is unfair. Plus everything I’ve heard about Jackson is that he is a great kid and he deserves a chance. Let’s give everyone a chance.

On blogging full time: Wow. I don’t know how guys like Matthew Cerrone (MetsBlog) and Tim Dierkes (MLB Trade Rumors) do it. After one week and 30 posts I’m exhausted – and I took Friday off! I did find it exciting though to be flipping between Tweetdeck, Google Reader, checking email, and hitting refresh on a number of sites as the rumors flowed and the deals came together. It ended up being the biggest week ever at DTW with 3 of the 4 biggest traffic days in the site’s history coming this week. I hope you found this site to be a place full of accurate and up to date information this week. We’ll now be returning to a much more modest 4-5 posts per week schedule. I’ll also be deciding what to do with the new post carousel at the top of the page. What do you think?

The last day of a very active winter meetings for Tigers fans is upon us. A look at what took place yesterday and what may take place today follows.

• With all the medical records eventually checking out the trade became complete and the 3 GM’s had their press conference while Leyland fretted about the lack of a leadoff hitter and a lineup that is very right handed.
• The new Tigers met with the media and provided their thoughts on coming to Detroit. Phil Coke is prepared to start or relieve and Daniel Schlereth’s fiancée is from Michigan and the new in-laws were already Tigers fans.Meanwhile old Tiger Curtis Granderson talked about how hard it is to leave Detroit.
• Dusty Ryan and Freddy Dolsi were DFA’d to make room on the big league roster.
• Brandon Lyon signed a 3 year deal with the Astros leaving the Tigers to pursue Fernando Rodney or Kevin Gregg as closer options. J.J. Putz was also linked to the Tigers but he may end up with the White Sox instead.
• The Tigers are reportedly one of five teams interested in Scott Podsednik.
• The Rule 5 draft is this morning. The Tigers roster is full at 40 meaning they can’t participate, but they could still lose players.

This should be old hat by now, but here are all the ways to keep up with the Winter Meetings at DTW.

The latest buzz is that the Tigers are are trying to move Carlos Guillen, and there may be some sort of partnership with the Dodgers to acquire Juan Pierre. But it appears that both teams are in need of 3rd team to fill in the blanks.

The Fox Sports boys report that the Dodgers are looking for a reliable starter with a bad contract to swap for Juan Pierre who is owed $26 million $18.5 million over the next 2 seasons. The Tigers have plenty of bad contract pitchers, but none are really considered reliable meaning the Dodgers and Tigers need to involve a third team to complete things.

Pierre is a below average hitter who’s only value is derived from batting average (like Polanco but faster). With the glove he is average-ish in centerfield according to fangraphs. Color me not thrilled.

There is another aspect to consider with a potential Guillen move. He lives near Miguel Cabrera in Venezuela. I also get the impression he is a team leader. I think as much as the Tigers would like to move the contract, they’d also like Guillen around to mentor the younger Cabrera. I’m not big on keeping guys for the sake of their clubhouse presence, but there are some more involved circumstances here.

UPDATE: Jason Beck spoke with Guillen’s agent who has not been contacted. Guillen is a 10-5 player meaning he’d have to approve any trade.

Image credit lakelandlocal on flickr

As Tigers fans let us just hope that today is relatively boring. The Tigers will remain active and the roster will continue to change but hopefully we’re done with franchise-type players leaving. In the meantime here’s a recap of what happened yesterday – including some late notes – as well as a look at what may happen today.

• There was a pretty big trade that went down. Baseball America compiled scouting reports on the Tigers return and Baseball Prospectus talked with Arizona manager A.J. Hinch
• Despite the Tigers adding a few bullpen arms, they are still looking for a veteran closer. Some names linked to the Tigers are Kevin Gregg and J.J. Putz. Also don’t rule out a return of Brandon Lyon or Fernando Rodney. Tim Kurkjian reported on Baseball Tonight that he spoke with a Tigers source that said the team would be comfortable with either option.
• The Tigers have to free up a couple of roster spots when the trade is official announced (which could come today if the medical reports are signed off on). I’d look for Bobby Seay to be either traded or non-tendered.
• The Tigers signed Robinzon Diaz to a minor league contract giving them some additional depth if Alex Avila isn’t ready yet.
• Jon Morosi tweeted late last night that there has been some interest in Carlos Guillen.

UPDATE 1:37 PM:Shit. Granderson’s medical records sent to Yanks.

UPDATE 1:20 PM: We may know soon enough (or too soon if you ask me). Ed Price says the Tigers are waiting for the Yankees to sign off on 3-way deal and a decision is expected by 2pm. Rosenthal says one of the lefties (Coke or Dunn) is out of the original deal. Joel Sherman has more on the framework of a proposed deal where the Tigers would get Schereth, Scherzer, A Jackson, and one other pitcher.

UPDATE 12:33 PM: There’s way too much smoke for their not to be fire unless everybody is just getting their information from each other. Heyman just tweeted that a direct Yankees/Tigers deal would involve Granderson, Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, and Phil Coke. That’s not enough in my mind for Granderson – especially given his very reasonable contract and the fact the Tigers don’t HAVE to trade him. Another tweet and its a 3 way where the Tigers get Scherleth, Scherzer, A Jackson, and Coke. A better haul to be sure. Everybody (ESPN, SI, Fox) is saying things that are way too similar here. Olney has info in the ESPN live tracker that the Tigers are the ones who reignited talks. I hate the idea of the Tigers compromising.

UPDATE 11:28 AM:Jon Morosi notes that the Tigers are interested in Angels centerfield prospect Peter Bourjous. Bourjous posted a 281/354/423 line as a 22 year old at AA…Mark Feisand thinks the talks of Granderson to the Yankees aren’t dead, but it wouldn’t be for the same set of prospects as originally reported and throws in that the Mariners are expected to make a Grandy push. He also says the Tigers may be caving on their price for Granderson (NO!)…Jon Heyman says the talks are being resuscitated as well.

While it seems that the blockbuster Yankees-Diamondbacks-Tigers trade may be a long shot at this  point, the Tigers will likely still continue to be active on this front. I’d still say that a Curtis Granderson trade is a long shot, but an Edwin Jackson deal seems likely. We’ll keep track of the buzz here.

As of 10:30 this morning, various sources are reporting that the blockbuster is dormant. The Yankees don’t like the prospect cost and various reports say the Tigers aren’t thrilled with their take either. Phil Rogers tweets that there is no movement on the Cubs front for Granderson either.

Image credit: The US Army on flickr. As an aside, for all the talk of Granderson’s community service (which is warranted), Jackson is very active when it comes to working with soldiers and making appearances as well. The above photo was taken at Fort Hood this November.

The first day of the Winter Meetings has come to an end and the sun is coming up on a snowy second day. For Tigers fans there was no shortage of news and drama. To recap:

• The Tigers were tied to several relievers including Kevin Gregg, George Sherrill, and as of a late night rumor J.J. Putz
• Two of their own relievers both turned down salary arbitration in Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney
• The Tigers traded Clay Rapada to the Rangers for cash considerations
• The Tigers signed reliever Brad Thomas who had pitched the last two years in Korea and they made room for him by outrighting Zach Simons to Toledo
• Adam Everett inked a 1 year deal to return and be the heavy side of a shortstop timeshare with Ramon Santiago.
• And there was a bevy of Edwin Jackson and Curtis Granderson speculation culminating in a rumored  potential (and potentially dead) 3-way deal with the Yankees and Diamondbacks.

“Tomorrow will bring a different tone in conversations,” Dombrowski said Monday.

Day 2 figures to have much more of the same, but talks are likely to intensify as Dombrowski tries to sort out the back of their bullpen.

My feeling is that they don’t want to spend a lot, but that they want some established presence closing games. Lyon and Rodney were both in that mix had they accepted arbitration. Neither are necessarily out of that discussion but the Tigers no longer have to hold a potential spot for them.

And all those rumors swirling around the Tigers, Lynn Henning caught up with Dombrowski. Dombrowski said the deals make sense from a baseball perspective, but not to believe everything you hear.

Taking of some administrative functions, I ran things a little differently on the site with the most active (posts getting multiple updates throughout the day) or relevant posts staying at the top of the list with a carousel of recent posts at the very top. Does this work for people or should I return to straight reverse-chronological?

As a reminder, there are many ways to follow the Winter Meetings at the Detroit Tigers Weblog

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi report that the framework for a blockbuster deal (h/t) between the Tigers, the Diamondbacks, and the Yankees was in place before at least one of the teams pulled out. The Tigers would have sent Edwin Jackson to Arizona, Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, and they would have received Max Scherzer with other young players floating to each team involved.

This would mesh with the various reports throughout the day that Arizona was looking like the destination for Jackson, and it also connects the dots on a report from Nick Piercoro about a third team being needed for the Diamondbacks to give up Scherzer (h/t).

From the sounds of the Fox Sports report it wasn’t Arizona who balked on the deal meaning it was the Tigers and/or the Yankees who passed. The Tigers had set their price for Granderson as Phil Hughes and Austin Jackson and with Jackson included in an outbound package I’d guess the Tigers would have been looking for Scherzer, either Jackson or Hughes, and then probably an additional prospect from the Yankees.

UPDATE: The Tigers would have received Scherzer, Jackson, Phil Coke, and Mike Dunn

What we don’t know is if this deal is dead, or just dormant.

UPDATE: 10:01 PM: Things seem to have really slowed down. For Nightengale’s insistence that the Tigers want to move Granderson this week, others aren’t seeing the same things. Buster Olney on Baseball Tonight said the Tigers asked for Austin Jackson and Phil Hughes from the Yankees for Grandy and from the Cubs they wanted Starlin Castro and 2 pitching prospects. Phil Rogers says the Mariners may be in on Granderson and Ed Price further confirms the Diamondbacks interest in Edwin Jackson. And Dombrowski has a weak denial (my interpretation) that the team is close to any deals.

UPDATE 4:54 PMFoxsports.com has updated their site reiterating that a deal is close for Jackson but still call Arizona and Seattle as the favorites. Joel Sherman said Mariners officials are downplaying their interest while Ed Price said the Tigers are mulling over a dozen offers for the right hander. Morosi says the Angels are still in on both Granderson and Jackson.

UPDATE 4:18 PM: Foxsports.com reports the Tigers are close to trading Jackson and lists the D’backs and Mariners but rule out the Dodgers, Brewers, and Mets. Buster Olney tweets the asking price for Jackson is very high. The Chicago Tribune says lobby buzz is that the Yankees are hot on the trail of Granderson. Ed Price calls interest lukewarm because of unwillingness to deal Austin Jackson.

UPDATE 3:14 PM:Ed Price tweeted rumor that the Mets acquired Edwin Jackson, but then quickly clarified and Mets officials issued a denial.

UPDATE 1:59 PM: Bob Nightengale tweets the Tigers are close to trading Edwin Jackson. No mention of where that might be though.

There is no real news on the Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson trade fronts, but here is a roundup of some news and related tweets from this morning.

• Joel Sherman spoke with an official from another team that thinks the Yankees really want Granderson.
• The Cubs and Yankees have been mentioned as two potential destinations for Granderson. Not coincidentally both have some interest in Mike Cameron and according to Sherman the Cubs like Melky Cabrera. I don’t know what this all means.
• Dave Sheinin of the Washington Post said the Nationals (who just traded for Brian Bruney) are looking for veteran starting pitching help and mentions Edwin Jackson as a potential target (h/t). I don’t know that the Nats have the pieces to do it though.
• Be it the Nats or one of the other 28 teams, Bob Nightengale surveys the buzz and says Jackson will be dealt soon.

Image credit: yoppy on flickr

For all the talk of the Tigers being broke, the Dodgers might be in a tougher situation. They didn’t offer any of their players arbitration and now they are looking to move players, including reliever George Sherrill.

Matthew Pouilot notes that the Tigers might be a fit for a deal where Sherrill and a prospect head to Detroit in exchange for Edwin Jackson. Pouilot also mentions the Rangers, Rays, and Phillies as potential suitors.

The lefty reliever made $2.75 million last year and in 2010 he enters his last year of arbitration eligibility his last 2 years of arbitration eligibility before becoming a free agent. Sherrill keep his strikeout rate above 9 and he generally keeps his walks a touch over 3 except for 2 outlier years in 2006 and 2008. While his FIP projection is similar to Bobby Seay’s, Sherrill did it as a general reliever and not a LOOGY like Seay did making his numbers more impressive.

Steve Kornacki also concocts a Sherrill to Detroit trade scenario that also includes Juan Pierre and Carlos Guillen switching uniforms. While getting out from under Guillen’s contract would be helpful the Tigers would be taking on $18.5 million of Pierre’s salary over the next 2 seasons. I also disagree with his assessment of Pierre helping the top of the order.

Sherrill would be a nice addition to the Tigers pen, but I’d be surprised to see the Tigers offering up significant players or money to acquire bullpen help given organizational depth provided by Robbie Weinhardt, Cody Satterwhite, Zach Simons, Casey Fien, and others.

UPDATE 8:47 PM: Ned Colletti shoots down rumors about the Dodgers shopping Sherrill

Image credit: Keith Allison on Flickr

The good news for Tigers fans is that according to Jon Paul Morosi a couple of sources say it is unlikely that the Tigers trade Miguel Cabrera this week. Salary relief would of course be nice, but Morosi raises another good point. Trading away a team’s best player likely sends the wrong message to the player you’d like to keep around.

Verlander, who is on the verge of receiving a big raise in salary arbitration, is on track to become a free agent after the 2011 season. If the Tigers trade prominent players such as Granderson and Jackson, they may have a difficult time convincing Verlander to remain in Detroit for the long term.

It’s quite the conundrum for the Tigers. The cash saved by in the future by moving Miguel Cabrera or Curtis Granderson would certainly help with the flexibility to sign Justin Verlander but it would also make the climate less attractive. Verlander will get his money regardless so he’ll be able to look for a favorable situation.

As for what it will take to sign Verlander, we can start by looking at some rumors swirling around Felix Hernandez who like Verlander is 2 years removed from free agency. Ken Rosenthal reports that the two sides are far apart on a long term deal where the starting point was a 4 year $45 million offer.

Hernandez should command more because as good as Verlander has been, King Felix has been better and is 3 years younger. Still, it would take probably $20 million to buy out Verlander’s 2 arbitration years and then $15-18 million per year after that at least.

Jon Heyman writes today that things aren’t very close in a proposed Milton Bradley for Pat Burrell swap between the Rays and the Cubs. This doesn’t have a direct impact on the Tigers, but it is worth watching because there is speculation that the Cubs would want to move Bradley before setting their sights on Curtis Granderson.

Some in the Tigers blogosphere had suggested that Milton Bradley may be a decent acquisition for the Tigers if it involved a swap of undesirable contracts. Bradley will earn $10 million in 2010 and $11 million in 2011.

Bradley is coming off a year that saw his power drop dramatically as he only mustered a .397 slugging percentage. He hit fewer line drives and more groundballs but managed to maintain a health .378 OBP.

UPDATE: Thanks to Ben and Lee for pointing to this related note from Will Carroll that Mike Cameron is also in the Cubs mix, which if he was signed would likely kill Granderson trade talk as far as the Cubs were concerned.

Image from SD Dirk on Flickr

I don’t know that we’ll cover every Tigers trade rumor here. It usually isn’t worth the effort, but there were some fairy significant reports regarding subjects of Edwin Jackson and Curtis Granderson.

The New York and Chicago media have been beating the drum for Granderson to land in their respective cities. Now there are reports that Dave Dombrowski has had discussions with the Angels. The Angels have 24 year old shortstop prospect Brandon Wood who the Tigers may find appealing. Granderson would presumably move to left field with Torii Hunter manning center.

If the thought of trading Granderson is upsetting to you (it is to me), you may take some comfort in that at least one AL executive doesn’t think it’s going to happen.

On the Jackson front, the Tigers have talked with Doug Melvin and the Milwaukee Brewers. I’m sure they’ve talked with a number of clubs, but here’s the money quote:

"Dave’s in charge of that one," said Melvin. "They’ll identify which clubs are matches and they’ll call them. he’s looking for young players and young pitchers."

I agree with Jason Beck in that it sounds like the team is doing a little more than just listening to offers.

I don’t remember the general manager meetings being this interesting in past years. Most of the action seems to usually take place at the winter meetings that take place in December. This year the GM meetings have served Tigers fans up with a disconcerting set of rumors with the Tigers making most of the team available for trade. But does this qualify as a fire sale?

It all started Tuesday night when the news hit that Edwin Jackson could be available along with Gerald Laird. Things got more interesting Wednesday afternoon when a New York Post story cited a National League executive who said the Tigers were listening to offers on Curtis Granderson. Olney later tweeted the same information. With two All Stars potentially on the block, a depressed economic region, and a payroll that leaves little flexibility the phrases “financial difficulty” and “fire sale” began working their way into columns. By evening Jon Heyman added Brandon Inge (h/t MLBTR) to the list of those the Tigers could be looking to trade. Are the Tigers slashing payroll?

Dave Dombrowski denied that the Tigers were in fire sale mode. He also iterated that the Tigers don’t have a set payroll yet from Mike Ilitch. So if the Tigers aren’t cutting and slashing the payroll, what is behind all the rumor and speculation?

When the Jackson rumor hit we went through a number of factors and possible scenarios. With Granderson and Inge added to the list it clears up a lot of the possibilities but I don’t think it points to payroll slashing. What I do think it confirms – and this isn’t a surprise – is that the team likely has limited flexibility with their payroll.

What we’re seeing now is every player on the roster with potential value being floated. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Miguel Cabrera’s name or Justin Verlander’s names pop up in the coming weeks. The Tigers have holes to fill and limited means to fill them. They also have a number of contracts coming off the books after 2010. If the Tigers trade a player or two to fill a couple holes and get younger or cheaper at the same time, it’s a win – especially going into a season where playoff aspirations are likely limited.

Granderson, Laird, Jackson, and Inge all make some money, but the 4 are a relatively small part of the overall payroll. Moving one or two of them isn’t going to have a significant financial impact. It’s more a matter of improving the team in the long run.

With Granderson and Jackson in particular the Tigers would be able to net a significant package. These players aren’t going to be given away which means that it is unlikely they are going anywhere, and if they do the team stands to be better for it.*

*The above paragraph is my best attempt at taking a cold and analytical look at the situation. The fan in me is sick about the thought of Curtis Granderson playing for another team. So maybe on second thought the paragraph is an attempt at rationalizing the minimal likelihood of a Granderson trade to make me feel better.

There has been considerable speculation about the Tigers financial state. The payroll will be high, and there are continued questions about revenue potential. Mike Ilitch saw less advertising revenue. Attendance was relatively strong, but the Tigers missed out on any postseason gate receipts despite adding payroll midseason. Now Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi are reporting that Dave Dombrowski is listening to offers on Edwin Jackson.

Jackson will likely command a salary of about $5 million in 2010 as he enters his 2nd of 3 years of arbitration eligibility and so a trade would seemingly be at least a year early. The salary wouldn’t appear to be prohibitive for a player that was 3.5 WAR last year and 1.5 WAR each of the previous 2 years. In other words, Jackson will have surplus value next year even he reverts closer to his 2007-8 numbers than his 2009 campaign. Of course value or not, cash is cash and if the Tigers don’t have the money they don’t have the money regardless of the value.

Aside from money, or perhaps in addition to it, are there are reasons why trading Jackson may be desirable?

The Sell High theory

Why this makes sense: Jackson is coming off legitimately the best season of his career. His 3.62 ERA was stellar, but he pitched into some luck without a remarkable strike out rate. His FIP ERA was 4.28. Definitely above average, but not eye-popping. Jackson faded down the stretch – badly. Perhaps the Tigers think Jackson hit his ceiling and they don’t think he can replicate or build upon his 2009 season. They know that Jim Leyland rode him pretty hard and they’re worried about his health or stamina going forward.

Bill James predicts his FIP to balloon back to 4.72 for the 2010 season. If the Tigers can parlay his 2009 season into younger/cheaper talent it may make sense to move now.

Why this doesn’t make sense: As mentioned earlier, Jackson is still a good bet to be a good value as long as he remains under club control. Plus, opposing GM’s have access to all these same stats and circumstances. Also, the Tigers would need to replace over 200 innings of above league average  production and it’s doubtful that talent exists currently in the organization. This leads us to…

Freeing up money for a big move theory

Why this makes sense: The Tigers were reported to meet with Aroldis Chapman who will command big money. Perhaps the Tigers think they have a shot at Chapman and that he could step right into the rotation. I don’t know how Chapman’s contract would be structured, but it seems reasonable that he would make comparable money (or perhaps a little less) than Jackson in 2010. The upshot is the team gets younger without adding payroll in the coming season – and they get some prospects.

Why this doesn’t make sense: Lots of teams want Chapman and that would be a lot of eggs to put in a basket that may be full of holes.

Pitcher X is ready theory

Why this makes sense: Andy Oliver, the Tigers 2009 second round pick was aggressively sent to the Arizona Fall League where he’s had some success after getting roughed up in his first outing. Are the Tigers looking at a rotation of Verlander/Porcello/Bonderman/Oliver/Robertson in 2010? The Tigers are paying Bonderman and Robertson (and Willis) no matter what so they might as well try and extract something from them. They aren’t movable but Jackson is. Plus the Tigers have been aggressive in their promotions in the past.

You could also make the case that the Tigers think they have found something in Scot Drucker. He’s also been strong in the AFL and he could find himself in the mix as well come April 2010.

Why this doesn’t make sense: Oliver is very talented and could prove to be a great pick in the second round. But he has 12 professional inning at this point and a 13:8 K:BB ratio. I’m not saying that Oliver couldn’t make starts at some point in 2010 – or even break camp in the rotation – but to pencil him in 3 months before spring training starts would be kind of crazy.

Drucker is probably a more legitimate candidate for this spot, but I don’t think he’s at the point where the Tigers would be freeing up a rotation spot for him.

Playing for beyond 2010

Why this makes sense: As challenged as the Tigers will be with payroll in 2010, things get better in 2011. Robertson, Bonderman’s, Inge’s, and Willis’ contracts all come off the books and because of Ordonez’s limited playing time in 2009 he isn’t a sure bet to vest for 2011. Maybe the Tigers bite the bullet in 2010 knowing that things will be better in the future with a core of Miguel Cabrera, Curtis Granderson, Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello and hopefully developing youngsters Scott Sizemore, Alex Avila, and Ryan Perry.

Conversely, they may view the division as so weak that even in a re-tooling season they could hang around enough in the AL Central to make things interesting.

If Jackson isn’t required under these scenarios, now might be the time to trade him because his value may not be appreciably higher after the 2010 season. If he can replicate 2009 next year it would further establish that 2009 was a break through rather than a fluke, but it would also take away a year of club control for the receiving team.

Why this doesn’t make sense: The Tigers will still have over a $100 million payroll without Jackson and that is too much for a re-tooling team. The Tigers are likely to be turning to a younger middle infield already, as well as a new closer most likely. If the payroll is too high for a non-competing team then the talent without Jackson probably isn’t sufficient for a middling team.

Putting it together

If the Tigers are serious about trading Jackson, there are probably facets of each of the above scenarios that come into play. Even then, the overarching motivation is probably money. The same Fox Sports article also mentioned that industry sources are saying that Gerald Laird is available as well further leading to the cash flow theory. But at the same time the Tigers are still talking about bringing Brandon Lyon back and he’ll command a salary similar to what Jackson would make.

As long as Mike Ilitch is mum on the payroll fans are left to speculate as to how Dombrowski will improve a team with many question marks on a tight budget. Unconventional moves like flipping Jackson may the only recourse to get through to the salary relief coming after 2010.

Lynn Henning reports today that the Tigers and Blue Jays discussed Roy Halladay and the price would be Rick Porcello, Ryan Perry, and Casey Crosby. Essentially the top 3 arms drafted and signed in the last 2 years by the Tigers. It’s a very steep price that had me balking on first blush. But after a deeper dive and this trade looks a lot more interesting.

We know that Halladay would replace Porcello in the rotation. Let’s assume that there are 13 turns left in the season for either pitcher. Halladay averages 7 1/3 innings per start meaning he’d throw another 95 innings. ZiPS projections have him throwing 84 more innings. We’ll split the difference and call it 90.

Porcello doesn’t pitch as deep meaning he’d likely go about 5 1/3 innings per start or about 70 innings. The bullpen would presumably pitch the rest of those innings.

Halladay has  FIP of 2.74 this year and ZiPS has him at 3.13 the rest of the way. Porcello has a FIP of 5.33. We don’t know exactly which relievers would pick up those other 20 innings, but we’ll assume they have a FIP of 4.50. Multiplying it out, we could estimate that Porcello+pen would surrender 51 runs. Halladay picking up those innings would surrender 31 runs over that same span. That’s roughly a 2 win swing over 62 games which is pretty significant.

But the Tigers are a fairly low scoring team with a fairly solid pitching staff and defense, in other words a lower run scoring environment team. Beyond the Boxscore points out that context matters in these things. They used PythagenPat, and I’ll use Pythagorean but the same general principle applies. Right now the Tigers are a .537 or 87 win team based on their runs scored and runs against. They are pretty close to that based on actual record as well. They average 4.66 runs scored and 4.35 runs allowed. If you reduce their total runs allowed by 31 21 (edit: I screwed up the math…sorry) the team becomes a .553 or 89.7 win team.

Now 87 wins stands a pretty good chance of winning the division and getting in the playoffs, but it is far from a certainty. A 90-91 win team will have a very, very good chance at taking this weak division. With that sort of context it almost makes it harder to turn down this deal than it is to accept it.

The price is steep in terms of prospects and value. Porcello won’t be a free agent until 2015. Expecting him to be as good as Halladay is unfair, but expecting him to be an above average pitcher for cheap for 5 more years is reasonable and makes him valuable. Crosby has the stuff and stats that make prospect lovers drool, and he’s a lefty. Perry is a pen arm, quite possibly a good one, but not terribly difficult to replace.

The upside of getting Halladay is tremendous though, and they’d have him for another season (provided Halladay doesn’t invoke his right to demand a trade in the offseason) and he could be flipped at the trade deadline next year if the team isn’t in contention or at the very least he’d net 2 first round picks if he signed someplace else.

I’m not anxious to see Porcello or Crosby go anyplace, but this would be one of only a handful of scenarios where I would be willing to let them go.