Category Archives: Statistics

2013 Season, Statistics

DTW Book Club v1

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This could fail miserably…but here goes.

I found this gem on Amazon a few days ago (under “Books you may like” what does this say?).

I’m only a few chapters into it, but it is FANTASTIC, and I think that several of you would really enjoy it. Here’s the write-up from Amazon:

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An ex-Wall Street trader improved on Moneyball‘s famed sabermetrics to place bets that would beat the Vegas odds on Major League Baseball games–with a 41 percent return in his first year. Trading Bases explains how he did it. After the fall of Lehman Brothers, Joe Peta needed a new employer. He found a new job in New York City but lost that, too, when an ambulance mowed him down as he crossed the street on foot. In search of a way to cheer himself up while he recuperated in a wheelchair, Peta started watching baseball again, as he had growing up. That’s when inspiration hit: Why not apply his outstanding risk-analysis skills to improve on sabermetrics, the method made famous by Moneyball–and beat the only market in town, the Vegas betting line? Why not treat MLB like the S&P 500?In Trading Bases, Peta shows how to subtract luck–in particular “cluster luck,” as he puts it–from a team’s statistics to best predict how it will perform in the next game and over the whole season. His baseball “hedge fund” returned an astounding 41 percent in 2011– with daily volatility similar to funds he used to trade for. Peta takes readers to the ballpark in San Francisco, trading floors and baseball bars in New York, and sports books in Vegas, all while tracing the progress of his wagers.

Far from writing a dry, do-it-yourself guidebook, Peta weaves a story that is often humorous, and occasionally touching; the topic may be “Big Data” but it’s as entertaining as a Bill Simmons column. Trading Bases is all about the love of critical reasoning, trading cultures, risk management, and baseball. And not necessarily in that order.
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He’s already brought up “run efficiency” which is something that we discussed on here a few weeks (or months?) ago. If anyone picks it up, let me know and we can discuss.
2012 Season, Game Post, Players, Statistics

Game 2012.95: White Sox at Tigers

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50-44, 2nd place, .5 games behind CWS.

Wow, what a game last night. Other than a very poorly located 2-0 fastball, Verlander pitched a gem. The most incredible pitch of the night came in the 8th when a 100 mph 0-1 fastball literally sawed Gordon Beckham’s bat in half, on a check swing no less. Last night’s game was just what we expected, and needed, from JV. Valverde had a 1, 2, 3 ninth, but he came perilously close to walking Adam Dunn, and then needed a tremendous diving catch by Berry to get the third out (check out the emotion after the catch; I love it).  Also, all four of the Tigers’ runs came with 2 out, and the Tigers were 6-13 with RISP.

Ricky P takes the ball at 4:05 Eastern with a chance to pitch the Tigers into first place. Most of us would rank Porcello’s season this year as disappointing, perhaps even very disappointing, but I think a closer look at the numbers reveals that he’s actually progressing, and maybe even rapidly so.

First of all, let’s look at his peripherals. His walks per 9 are slightly up, but so are his Ks per 9. His 2.20 K/BB ratio is the best of his career. Also, his HR/9 has come down every year since 2009. His current 4.66 ERA is better than 2010 and 2011, and while his 2009 ERA was 3.96, that was due to a ridiculously low BABIP, as his 4.77 2009 FIP (see below) demonstrates. In most measurable categories, he’s improving.

So now let’s look as his sabermetric numbers. Porcello leads (not in a good way) the majors with a .358 BABIP against (Scherzer is .346 against, 2nd worst in the majors). I think that some of this can be blamed on poor fielding (we’ve discussed how few balls the Tigers infield gets to but know that JVs .238 BABIP is the 2nd best in the majors; Weaver’s is .233; imagine what JV could do with a better fielding infield). But in any event, a lot of BABIP can be attributed to the whimsical nature of chance. 52% of the batted balls against him are ground balls, which is a fantastic number, even for a sinker baller. His FIP (which is ERA without fielding factors) is a respectable 3.81 (which is above his career FIP average), and his SIERA (an even fancier play on ERA) is a career best 4.13. So can the BABIP explain it all? Or is it something else?

Taking a look at his batted ball stats shows that his line drive rate is up to 23.7%, which is almost 30% higher than his career average coming into the season. Batters are squaring up on him like crazy. And to be honest, I can’t figure out why. His velocity is up this year over his career numbers, and his pitch selection is in line with his usual numbers. So unless he’s tipping his pitches, the BABIP is going to regress way down, and Porcello will have an above average, maybe even a fantastic, 2nd half. (And I’d like to take back my prediction that he’s gonna get shelled today; candidly, I had not looked at all the numbers until now. Sorry Ricky P. You’re my boy.)

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Opposing Porcello this afternoon is AL ERA leader Chris Sale. The lefty (RABURN ALERT) is 11-2 with a 2.11 ERA. Over his past 10 starts his ERA is 1.61 and his WHIP is .89. We’re going to need Porcello’s A game and some clutch hits from our righty BOOBs to wake up in 1st place tomorrow. The Tigers did “rough up” sale for 3 runs and 5 hits over 5 innings back on April 15th in his 2nd start of the year.

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– The Tigers are 15-7, and are averaging 5.6 runs per game, since Toby Harrah was brought up to make Lloyd McLendon feel uncomfortable.

We’ll do a trade rumor update manana.

Today’s Ridiculous 2 Hole Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Raburn, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Boesch, RF
8. Laird, C
9. Worth, 2B

 

2012 Season, Game Post, Statistics

Game 2012.32: Tigers at Athletics

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Yesterday we mentioned we would take a look at the Tiger DH performance.  Then again, you may want to avert your eyes.

Currently the Tiger DH line (BA, OBP, SLG, OPS) looks like this:

  • Tigers DH:  .192  .228  .283  .512
  • AL Avg DH:.263  .334  .454  .788

With those numbers we could have kept Brandon Inge, shifted him to DH, and come out ahead.

Of course the league averages include Detroit, who brings the numbers down. Detroit has edged Seattle out for 13th in the league, but those 2 teams are over 100 OPS points behind the 12th place team.

DH isn’t the only problem position for Detroit:  they are league worst at 2B, and 13th at RF production.  But DH is worse, since it is one of the most important positions for offensive production (that’s kind of the idea of it).

Based on 2012 league averages, DH is the most productive position at the plate;  based on the 2011 numbers, DH was slightly behind 1B as the most productive position.

It is still early, and things may improve.  But as with the Raburn numbers, there is a track record.  Look at Tiger DH performance over the course of the Leyland/Dombrowski era:

  • 2006  .256  .310  .464  .774  9th
  • 2007  .260  .364  .468  .831  5th
  • 2008  .218  .310  .388  .697  13th
  • 2009  .245  .325  .379  .704  13th
  • 2010  .259  .341  .373  .713  11th
  • 2011  .303  .354  .442  .796  4th
  • 2012  .192  .228  .283  .512  13th

It’s almost as if the team were built as a NL team, with the DH an afterthought, or a place to rest banged-up players (albeit a NL team with no speed and no ability to bunt).

It isn’t hard to see that Victor Martinez made a huge difference, solving an ongoing DH problem, which has now resurfaced.  Our 2012 DH could outdo the 2008 DH for lightweight hitting, and could lead to a similarly disappointing season.

Will the Tigers make a roster move to address the DH problem?  Does past history suggest they will cross their fingers, continue rotating bodies through the DH spot, and hope Martinez comes back?  What would you do?

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Tonight’s Player of the Pre-game:  Danny Worth.  The Tiger 2nd Basemen are batting .159 (Raburn), .156 (Santiago), .125 (Inge), and .100 (Worth). But with the fewest plate appearances of the lot, a good game by Worth could vault him toward the top of the low 2B bar.

Tonight’s Why-Not-Just-Go-For-It-And-Bat-Raburn-4th Llineup:

  1. Austin Jackson CF
  2. Andy Dirks LF
  3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
  4. Prince Fielder 1B
  5. Delmon Young DH
  6. Ryan Raburn RF
  7. Jhonny Peralta SS
  8. Gerald Laird C
  9. Danny Worth 2B
2009 Season, Players, Research, Statistics

Playing in the spray – Curtis Granderson

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Curtis Granderson’s 2009 season has received plenty of scrutiny, and this was even before trade rumors crept up. Granderson struggled at times during the season, and had a hard time sustaining success. His .249 batting average was the lowest of his career and it was a drag on his on base percentage and slugging percentage as well. We know batting average is volatile so did Granderson just suffer from some bad luck, or did something else change? Fortunately we have hit location data to help shed some light on these questions.

Granderson’s batting average was dragged down by a .276 batting average on balls in play. That is a number that should typically be in the .320ish range, especially for someone with Granderson’s speed. A shift like that would lead people to think he was largely unlucky. A closer look would show a shift in his balls in play from the harder to field grounders to the easier to field fly balls. Ask fans what they saw and many would say it looked like Granderson got overly concerned with the homers (a new career high) and that he pulled the ball to much. But what would the data say?

Continue reading Playing in the spray – Curtis Granderson →

2009 Season, Statistics

Culling the Bill James Handbook

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One of the few positives of the end of the baseball season is the Annual Bill James Handbook (aff link) arriving on my doorstep. At one time it was the only place to easily find a number of uncommon stats. Sites like Fangraphs and Baseball Reference and the rise of Pitch F/X data make some of these stats easier to come by, but the Handbook is still a trove of baseball stats.

Continue reading Culling the Bill James Handbook →

2009 Season, Statistics

Comerica is not doubles friendly

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Why is it that people keep insisting that Comerica Park is a great park for doubles? Is it the large centerfield? The huge-mongous gaps between the outfielders? I just don’t know but it just ain’t true but now even the general manager is saying it.

John Lowe wrote about the Tigers lack of doubles as an indictment of the offense. I can’t really argue that point as the Tigers ranked 30th in MLB with only 245 doubles. That isn’t good at all.

What I will take issue with is that the number was remarkable because of their home ballpark. Lowe cites the fact that it was strange that the Tigers had more doubles on the road than at home. He quotes Dave Dombrowski on the subject as well:

“When you talk about the Tigers and our ability not to score runs and not hit the way we should, it’s the lack of doubles,” Dombrowski said. “We have a ballpark that is conducive to a doubles-hitting club. It has tremendous gaps.”

But here’s the rub, Comerica Park is a bad park for doubles.

doubles by year

The table shows the number of doubles hit by the Tigers and their opponents each year at Comerica Park, and on the road (don’t forget back in 2009 the Tigers had one extra road game). For each of the last 5 years – and I didn’t go back further because I think the point has been made – more doubles are hit other places than at Comerica.

The ratio, more commonly referred to as a park factor, routinely puts Comerica Park in the bottom third in the majors in terms of doubles. A value of 1 would be neutral, values greater than 1 mean the park would be favorable and values less than one mean it is unfavorable. Over the last 5 years it’s been about 6% harder to hit a double at Comerica park than at a typical stadium. So can we finally put to rest the notion that it is a good doubles ballpark?

For more on Comerica’s outfield and other park factor goodness, you may want to check out these posts from the archives:

2009 Season, Statistics

The Seventh Inning – 2009 edition

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Long time readers of this site remember a feature called the Inning Report. Reader Sam Hoff would break down the season into 18 game segments or “innings.” Why 18 game? Because there are 9 18 game segments in a season. Wednesday’s game against the Angels completed the seventh inning. Sam is still putting these together, but he’s posting them on his site this season. So click through to read The 7th Inning is Over with games through Wednesday.

The Tigers played .500 ball in this most recent 18 game stretch. What really stands out to me this season is the consistency on the run prevention side of things. In 5 of the 7 18 game segments so far the the Tigers have allowed between 84 and 86 runs.

The Tigers overall slash line was 250/321/423 despite having 5 guys with OPS’s north of .900. Unfortunately, Clete Thomas, Brandon Inge, Aubrey Huff, and Gerald Laird are OPSing on the wrong side of .500 and are really, really dragging things down.

Still, the team managed to lengthen it’s division lead despite playing even ball so thanks to the struggles of the White Sox and Twins the Tigers are in a better place than they were 18 games ago.

2009 Season, Statistics

The Sixth Inning – 2009 Edition

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Long time readers of this site remember a feature called the Inning Report. Reader Sam Hoff would break down the season into 18 game segments or “innings.” Why 18 game? Because there are 9 18 game segments in a season. Friday night’s game against the Twins completed the sixty inning. Sam is still putting these together, but he’s posting them on his site this season. So click through to read The Sixth Inning is over with games through last Friday.

The Tigers posted a 10-8 record in the sixth inning despite being outscored by 4 runs. The pitching has been remarkably consistent throughout the season, never allowing more than 86 runs in these 18 game stretches. The fluctuations in the records come down mostly to the offense and the performance in close games.

The bullpen were the stars in this segment with Brandon Lyon not allowing a run and Ryan Perry and fu-Te Ni posting WHIPs under 1.10.

Carlos Guillen’s return to the lineup bolstered the DH spot while Miguel Cabrera, Curtis Granderson, and Placico Polanco had spans that were much more reminiscent of their career numbers.

2009 Season, Injuries, Pitching, Statistics

Infirmary report and other thoughts

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Aside from Joel Zumaya’s season ending surgery, the news is actually pretty good on the injury front. So much so that the only wound licking to take place should be residual pain of a 2-4 road trip.

  • Carlos Guillen, already swinging a productive stick from the left side, could be playing in left field by the end of the week. Now Guillen in left isn’t necessarily good news from a defensive perspective but it also means he isn’t locked into the DH role. Beck’s Blog: Guillen close to playing in field
  • Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson had good reports the day following their simulated game and head out on rehab assignment. Both will be in Toledo starting Tuesday (so the Mud Hens should eat well) with the goal to stretch Robertson out as a starter while Bonderman will be pitching out of the pen. I wouldn’t expect Robertson back before September 1st when the rosters expand. Tigers Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson to pitch in Toledo on Tuesday | Freep.com | Detroit Free Press
  • After Saturday’s effort I’m in no hurry to bump Porcello from the rotation, but the addition of either pitcher, or someone else after September 1st could help to curtail Porcello’s workload down the stretch. With a bigger roster to work with Leyland could do some split starts with Porcello if need be.
  • Brandon Inge’s balky knees have bothered him less of late due to a change in his treatment regimen, and the fact he’s been working with a specialist on a way to put the pain out of his mind.
  • Gerald Laird has been the Tigers best baserunner. Who knew? Tiger Tales: A Detroit Tigers Blog: Gerald Laird Leads Tigers in Base Running
  • Speaking of Gerald Laird, i was wondering if he might have any soft of advantage working with Jarrod Washburn since they spent several years in the AL West together. Turns out Laird only has 16 plate appearances against him. And in case you were wondering, Luke Scott is only 1 for 3 off of Washburn lifetime. 
  • Finally, a look at Rick Porcello’s awesome outing through the lens of pitch f/x. Fire Jim Leyland: Rick Porcello’s Start Through PITCHf/x
2009 Season, Statistics

Off day statistical nuggetry

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Some things to chew on while the Tigers lick their wounds after dropping a series to the Yankees…

  • Curtis Granderson hit his 7th homer of the year Wednesday night. It was also his 8th extra base hit of the year.
  • Tigers pitchers throw the fastest average fastball in the league at a robust 92.8. That’s .9mph more than the Dodgers who are next closest – and Joel Zumaya just got here. Verlander’s 95.3 mph heater is the fastest among starters. Ryan Perry’s 95.5 is 6th best for qualified relievers (Joel Zumaya checks in at 98.4)
  • Tigers hitters have also faced the fastest average fastball at 91.5 (next closest is 91.4). Maybe it has something to do with where they’ve played.
  • Tigers pitchers rank 5th in terms of first pitch strikes.
  • Brandon Inge leads the team by a large margin in terms of win probability added at 1.42 (.5 is essentially worth 1 win). And when I say large margin, the other 8 players who have non-negative WPA are a combined 1.29.
  • Miguel Cabrera is tied with Josh Anderson, Inge, and Placido Polanco for the team lead in infield hits with 4.
  • Cabrera has 2 RBI in the last 12 games. One of which came on an infield hit.
  • Ramon Santiago has the highest strike out rate on the team at 34.3%
2009 Season, Defense, Statistics

Tigers good at catching the ball

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In 2008 Detroit’s pitching was awful, but it had some help in allowing runs to score. After being a stellar defensive team in 2006 and a pretty good one in 2007, the ‘08 Tigers were awful. The team ranked 26th in UZR (-39 runs) and 24th in defensive efficiency. An emphasis on run prevention was the theme this offseason. And it seems to be working in the early going.

Continue reading Tigers good at catching the ball →

2009 Season, Statistics

Off day open thread – statistical nuggets

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With no game on the schedule today, I figured we could open things up a little bit. Discuss whatever you’d like in this space. But…to seed the conversation a little bit here are some early season statistics to ponder:

  • Justin Verlander has only stranded 42.3% of runners
  • Fernando Rodney and Bobby Seay have combined to record 21 outs on only 63 pitches
  • 42.9% of the flyballs Eddie Bonine have allowed have flown over the fence for homers
  • Ryan Perry has thrown more balls than strikes
  • Armando Galarraga, Bobby Seay, and Nate Robertson have gotten hitters to chase balls out of the zone over 40% of the time
  • Over half the pitches to Carlos Guillen, Miguel Cabrera, and Magglio Ordonez have been out of the strike zone
  • Only 5 different Tigers have homered this year, but their team total has them tied for 5th in MLB
  • Only 4 different Tigers have grounded into a double play this year
  • Ordonez hasn’t had an extra base hit yet, but he does lead the team in walks. And he’s hitting in front of a very hot Cabrera
  • The top two offensive teams in MLB this year have been the Blue Jays and the Rangers. Are they the top teams because they’ve each played the Tigers or would the Tigers ERA (4.58 overall, 5.39 when Galarraga isn’t pitching) be better if they hadn’t played such juggernauts?
  • If Placido Polanco were a tree, what kind of tree would he be?

All of these stats and many more can be found at Fangraphs