Category Archives: Roster Management

2010 Season, Roster Management

Dontrelle’s End

17 Comments

After two and a half years of  expectations, hope, patience, and frustration the Tigers have finally cut bait with Dontrelle Willis as he has been designated for assignment to make room for Max Scherzer. Is this decision a move towards less tolerance for failure, or just a matter of “enough is enough”?

It may seem curious to ask the question about less tolerance for failure given Dontrelle’s track record. There have been season long DL stints for knees and anxiety. There has been additional coaching and stays down at A ball to get him out of the spot light. There was the decision to bring him north this season despite the fact he hadn’t out-pitched his competitors in spring training. Through it all the Tigers stuck with him and his large contract, until last night.

Expectations

I think it’s fair to say the Tigers gave Willis every chance. While I don’t disagree with the move at all, the timing itself is a little surprising. After two seasons of implosions, Willis has an ERA, a FIP, and an xFIP that are all under 5.00. Not great or even good, but at least on the brink of serviceable. Given the contract it is disappointing to say the least, but he’s getting paid regardless.

Willis has at times looked good and at times looked out of sorts. Sometimes within the same game, sometimes even within the same inning. But the fact he looked good at times exceeded my expectations. His strikeout rate is the highest it’s been since 2003 and his walk rate is the best of his Tigers career (a still miserable 6 BB per 9).

So my question is, what exactly were the Tigers hoping for out of Willis this season? Dombrowski’s comments on the matter are rather gray, and I doubt we’re getting the whole story. Given his entire career arc, I think Willis is pitching as well as could have reasonably been expected.

Quicker to move

Here’s where I make a logical leap. I hope you can join me because it may be encouraging. Given the Willis DFA, the Sizemore and Scherzer demotions, and the commitment to Brennan Boesch is it out of line to think that the organization is looking to be more swift in swapping out underperformers and maximizing talent on the 25 man roster?

There are still gaping holes at catcher and Adam Everett has been awful as well. With the catcher situation there isn’t an upgrade readily available. With Everett he’s receiving less and less playing time (he and Santiago have evenly split SS duties) and my guess is the Tigers are keeping Everett around to hedge their bets in case Carlos Guillen can’t stick at second and Scott Sizemore can’t fully find his hitting stroke. Throw in Danny Worth and Everett’s leash may be shortening as well.

Margin for Error

The Tigers have made a payroll commitment to “go for it” this year and they have some terrific players to build around. But there are also enough question marks that the team has very little margin for error relative to the Minnesota Twins.

It isn’t time for rash decisions, but the team has to move swiftly if they have chances for quick upgrades. For now that means dipping into their minor league talent pool and they’ve done a nice job of extending the 25 man roster for several weeks now.

2010 Season, Defense, Roster Management

Thinking more about the roster shuffle

2 Comments

I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t know how Carlos Guillen moving to second base will work. And even if I think I knew, I’m the guy who thought Scott Sizemore would outhit Austin Jackson and that Max Scherzer would be the biggest contributor from the big trade so being wrong is nothing new here. However I like the move and I like what the Tigers are trying to do.

Impact on Defense

It is interesting that the Tigers went with an offensive first approach in 2008, saw it fail miserably, and then went with a big defensive emphasis the following year. The 2010 season saw a little balance and something in between.

The results in 2010 have certainly been mixed. The Tigers error total is shockingly bad. The errors themselves have certainly been shockingly bad with dropped fly balls at in opportune moments. It feels as if if the Tigers have had more than their share of high WPA errors.

Pitchers like Rick Porcello have seen very high BABIPs and the team also ranks 22nd in MLB in terms of defensive efficiency. John Dewan’s +/- system has the team at +5 runs which ranks the team 20th in MLB. With UZR things are better and the team ranks 10th overall.

With mixed reports such as these I’d put the data together and say the team is a little below average with the glove. So why make a move that introduces a defensively challenged player into a prominent defensive role? Because Scott Sizemore was struggling in that regard as well.

Sizemore’s strength was never his glove, but the Tigers second base defense is one of the reasons for the overall struggles. The Tigers rank in the bottom third in both +/- and UZR at the position (not just Sizemore, the position as a whole). Interestingly enough the Tigers rank tenth in revised zone rating, so the second baseman have done a good job with balls hit to them. They just haven’t had the range to extend the position with only 1 play made outside of the zone.

That’s a long explanation to say that the Tigers are only weakened defensively if Guillen proves to be awful at the position.

Injury Risk

Guillen is a pretty good player when healthy. When healthy though has been a fleeting state for Guillen. Second base won’t make it easier for Guillen to stay healthy, but at this point I don’t know that it matters. The Tigers made him the primary DH and he still got hurt. Guillen will likely get injured again at some point this season but I doubt that second base would be the culprit.

Instead of trying to keep him healthy, the Tigers should try to get the most value from him when he is healthy.

Prudent Roster Management

Here’s the part that I like the most. The Tigers are really extending their 25 man roster by actively making it a 28-30 man roster. The doubleheader was a nuisance but it set a lot of things in motion. Even with the shuffle not playing out like I speculated the team is still doing a good job of trying to get the right mix for the situation.

The Tigers haven’t been particularly mindful of service time or option status under Dombrowski, and I don’t mean that in a bad way. The Tigers will use the players that they think will give the team the best chance to win rather than trying to milk out an extra year of club control.

Long term this has implications of course, but I don’t think trying to win now is a bad strategy.

2010 Season, Roster Management

Tigers option Sizemore and Scherzer – Guillen to play 2B

36 Comments

The Tigers have optioned Scott Sizemore and Max Scherzer to Toledo. In their place come Armando Galarraga and Danny Worth. Worth wasn’t on the 40 man roster so his contract was purchased.

The Galarraga move isn’t the least bit surprising, he was the scheduled starter. The fact that the Tigers think Scherzer isn’t close enough to correcting his problems in side sessions is pretty telling and disappointing.

Also disappointing has been Sizemore’s performance offensively where he hasn’t been able to find that line drive stroke that produced an 889 OPS between AA and AAA last year.

Danny Worth was drafted by the Tigers in 2007 and his defense earned him a quick assignment at Lakeland. The question all along has been his bat. Worth is OPS’ing .665 for Toledo this year so it hasn’t exactly blossomed. My guess is this is a chance for Sizemore to fix some things while putting some pressure on Adam Everett as the defensive specialist.

Also, it should be noted that Worth was selected over Brent Dlugach who has very similar rate stats (673 OPS this year) but who is striking out at an epic rate with 52 K’s in 149 at-bats.

Also factoring into the middle infield situation is the fact that Carlos Guillen will need  a spot in a couple weeks and Brennan Boesch is playing too well to sit. Guillen has begun taking infield at both second base and shortstop.

UPDATE: Carlos Guillen will be the regular second baseman when he comes off the DL. When was the last season without a major position shift for Guillen?

2010 Season, Roster Management

Casper Wells to join the Tigers

14 Comments

It appears that the Tigers are calling up another young outfielder. The rumor has it that Casper Wells has been called up to the 25 man roster.

There likely won’t be an official roster move until tomorrow, but my guess is that Jim Leyland would like another position player on the bench the next two days. Ryan Raburn isn’t eligible to come back (barring a DL trip for somebody) until he’s spent 10 days on optional assignment.

Here’s how I think things will play out:

  • Wells will take Alfredo Figaro’s spot on the roster effective tomorrow.
  • Armando Galarraga will be recalled to start on Sunday. Otherwise somebody would be pitching on short rest (either Jeremy Bonderman or Rick Porcello). Galarraga last started on  Tuesday so Sunday would be normal rest for him.
  • When Galarraga is activated Wells will be sent down.
  • Galarraga will likely be returned to Toledo after his start and another position player will be called up until Raburn can return. My guess would be Wilkin Ramirez at that point.

Wells has been struggling this year with a 191/268/374 line but he does have 5 homers.

2010 Season, Roster Management

Figaro to join team Wednesday

5 Comments

Figaro has been formally recalled and Ryan Raburn has been optioned to Toledo where he’ll stay for at least the requisite ten days unless a DL stint is required. It could be longer however if Carlos Guillen is ready to return. Presumably Figaro is here short term just to get through the doubleheader with Thomas unavailable and the team probably preferring to give Bonine the day off as well.

With the double header scheduled for Wednesday, it appears that Alfredo Figaro will be joining the team in Detroit. Dontrelle Willis was reportedly still sick today, and the team is probably concerned about getting thin if Rick Porcello and Jeremy Bonderman struggle to put up innings.

It’s unclear at this point if Figaro has been activated or if he will just be in Detroit and available should the need present itself in game 2.

2010 Season, Roster Management, Spring Training

It’s Kelly right?

6 Comments

Yesterday Jim Leyland dropped some hints as to what his preferred 25 man roster would be when the team breaks camp this week. Actually he’s been dropping hints all along but he certainly helped to remove some doubt yesterday. It appears that Don Kelly will be the last position player on the roster.

Leyland offered reporters up this nugget:

I’ll give you one hint: ‘If Larish could play center field, his chances would be better.’

Which certainly hurts Jeff Larish’s chances of making the team. And I read it like Lee does that the preferred candidate be able to play both infield and outfield. This likely becomes more important as Leyland states his intention of resting Brandon Inge early in the season and the team’s questioned (and answered) level of comfort in Scott Sizemore.

Continue reading It’s Kelly right? →

2010 Season, Pitching, Roster Management, Spring Training

Putting eggs in the Willis basket

23 Comments

The battle for the back end of the Tigers starting rotation has been the story of the spring for Detroit fans. The Tigers are counting on two of the Jeremy Bonderman – Nate Robertson – Dontrelle Willis trio to bill out the last 40% of the starters innings. Bonderman has pretty much had the 4th spot assured leaving Robertson and Willis battling for the 5th spot. But with Robertson outpitching Willis by most measures, it appears that Robertson is on the block and Willis has that  last spot. A dangerous proposition to say the least.

Continue reading Putting eggs in the Willis basket →

2010 Season, Injuries, Roster Management

Seay, Miner hit the DL

19 Comments

The Tigers trimmed their roster down to 32 this morning with a couple of disabled list moves and other cuts. Most notable was the placement of Bobby Seay and Zach Miner on the 15 day disabled list.

Seay has been traveling from doctor to doctor in search of a diagnosis on his balky left arm (UPDATE: It’s a torn rotator cuff. There’s more info at the bottom of the post). Miner’s malady seems less dire but he won’t be ready for the beginning of the season. The moves do open up two spots on the active roster.

Miner’s long relief role could be the destination for the loser of the Nate Robertson-Dontrelle Willis-Jeremy Bonderman battle (assuming Robertson doesn’t get traded). Right handed reliever Robbie Weinhardt also remains in camp meaning he still has a shot. On the left side of things it would see to boost Brad Thomas’ chances of heading to Kansas City for the opener.

Daniel Schlereth, one of the lefties looking for a spot in the pen, was among those cut today. Scherleth was optioned along with Wilkin Ramirez to Toledo. Enrique Gonzalez, Phil Dumatrait, and Max St. Pierre were sent to minor league camp.

UPDATE: The injury to Bobby Seay is a torn rotator cuff. The plan is for Seay to try and rehab the injury and avoid surgery if at all possible. While the Tigers have other lefty options, it really is a blow to Seay who is a free agent after this year and will likely have his open market value severely hampered due to the injury.

Free Agents, Roster Management, Winter Meetings

Tigers relief notes

23 Comments

With the deals for LaTroy Hawkins and Brandon Lyon it appears that the market for “back end of the bullpen pitchers who could potentially set-up or close” may be getting steep for the Tigers. And with that the club may turn to in house options.

Jason Beck spoke with Dave Dombrowski who said that a return of Fernando Rodney is unlikely calling it a “long shot.” More frightening though is that the team is viewing Joel Zumaya as a legitimate option for the closer role.

I’m on board with not sinking a lot of money into a bullpen. I think the Tigers have done a good job the last few years of mixing young guys, minor league free agents, and fringy closer material guys together the last few years. It’s a quantity over quality approach where you hope enough guys make it work each year.

But going into a season with Zumaya competing for the role of closer is a ridiculous gamble and yet another reason to question the clubs intention to compete in 2010. In 2006 Zumaya was incredible. He hasn’t been healthy or effective since then. The velocity is certainly still there, but the results haven’t been for too long to “count on him.”

Ryan Perry and the newly acquired Daniel Schlereth would like be competing for such a role as well so all the eggs aren’t in Zumaya’s incredibly fragile basket. Still, those other options are particularly assuring at this point in their career either.

Roster Management, Trade Rumors, Trades, Winter Meetings

Winter Meetings Day 3

11 Comments

As Tigers fans let us just hope that today is relatively boring. The Tigers will remain active and the roster will continue to change but hopefully we’re done with franchise-type players leaving. In the meantime here’s a recap of what happened yesterday – including some late notes – as well as a look at what may happen today.

Roster Management, Trades, Winter Meetings

Tigers sign Brad Thomas, trade Clay Rapada

8 Comments

The Tigers today announced the signing of southpaw Brad Thomas, and that they traded Clay Rapada to the the Texas Rangers for a player to be named later. Furthermore, they outrighted Zach Simons.

Thomas pitched the last two years in Korea and Dave Dombrowski said in a statement he expects Thomas to contribute out of the bullpen at the big league level. Judging by this video it looks like Thomas has a fastball that sits 90-91mph and a breaking pitch that registers about 80mph.

Checking NPB Tracker it looks like Thomas was drawing interest from the Hansin Tigers. The Tigers have recently increased their presence in the pacific rim and last year it netted them  Fu-Te Ni from Taiwan. Ni made the leap the to the big leagues and led the league in stranding runners out of the bullpen.

Rapada was acquired as the PTBNL in the deal that sent Craig Monroe to the Cubs. He never really found a place with the club and I was a little surprised to see him kept on the 40 man roster.

Simons was acquired in exchange for Jason Grilli. He put together a solid second half in 2008 leading to a spot on the 40 man roster. He followed that up with a solid season at Erie with 8.8 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 leading to a 2.82 ERA in 51 innings. He only allowed 1 homer at Erie.

Analysis

I like the addition of Thomas as a low risk move. I don’t have huge expectations from a 32 year old pitcher with 23 innings of big league experience, but he’ll make the league minimum and if he doesn’t work, he doesn’t work.

Trading Rapada isn’t much of a surprise. His numbers at Toledo were quite good actually, but for some reason Leyland didn’t trust him.

I’m surprised to see Simons outrighted though. He had a solid season and the Tigers are reportedly shopping for bullpen help. I think that there is about to be another move where the Tigers acquire more players than they’re giving up (like a Jackson trade) or they’re planning to shop in the Rule 5 store on Thursday.

2010 Season, Roster Management

Arbitration offers for Lyon, Rodney

22 Comments

The Tigers decided to offer arbitration to relievers Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney, but not to take the risk with second baseman Placido Polanco. We didn’t really learn too much by these moves that we weren’t already expecting. If nobody were offered it may have signaled that the Tigers were as poor as everyone speculated. If everyone were offered it would either mean the Tigers weren’t really financially restricted or that Scott Sizemore’s injury wouldn’t allow him to be ready. Instead we’re somewhere in the middle.

The good news with Lyon and Rodney is that the Tigers stand to gain high draft picks if either player is signed by another team. If they accept arbitration the Tigers will have a couple relievers on one year deals for about $5 million apiece. However, Dave Dombrowski doesn’t expect either player to accept but he also didn’t rule out signing either player. With Lyon in particular I could see the team willing to sign him to a 2 year deal.

With Polanco it is one of those tough decisions, but one that is right. Polanco was part of the renaissance of baseball in Detroit and was an easy guy to root for. He played hard, never complained, and was remarkably steady. And while he was probably overrated by many fans for his batting average, he was the guy I felt most comfortable with at the plate in a key situation (yes, I know his career .307 BAISP isn’t appreciably different than his overall .303 BA it is still a pretty good clip and the fact that he’d find a way to put the ball in play made me “feel” better).

But for a change the Tigers actually have a position player prospect poised to take over a position of need in Scott Sizemore. He isn’t being rushed or pushed up for a spark or as an injury replacement. Scouts feel he can hit at the big league level now and his minor league numbers show he can transfer his tools to production.

Now the decision to let Polanco go is different than the decision to offer him arbitration. By not offering him arbitration Polanco will not fetch the team additional draft picks. The lack of a compensation pick also makes Polanco much more attractive to potential suitors. So when he ultimately signs a 2-3 year deal with someone, there will be complaints that the Tigers missed out. The complainers though have to realize that Polanco’s market shrinks with a compensation pick attached and that multi-year offer likely wouldn’t be there.